I guess this headline is pretty much what everyone agrees on. The peace talks yielded nothing except very limited prisoner exchanges.

War has to be the most wasteful of all human endeavors. But, Ukraine is fighting a war of survival, as Russia seeks to dominate Ukraine, and ultimately annex the country. It will be a very sad day for the 33 million Ukrainians if Russia succeeds.

Russia invasion began in February 2022 with tanks coming through the Ukraine/Belarus border ready to destroy Kyiv. Some thought the war would end in months. It was classic warfare, with the combination of troops and tanks, but obviously Ukraine could see it coming, and defeated the initial assault.

The war has changed in term of tactics. It is a troops and armaments-restrained war. Each side makes assessment of what their adversary has, and their ability to replenish their weapons. Russia is at a disadvantage, as every advance of their troops, requires a supply line of weapons and troops to maintain their control. .

Ukraine war latest: Elite Russian drone unit pulls back from northern Donetsk Oblast amid Ukrainian offensive

A cheap, long range, high speed and accurate missile doesn’t exist. Plus, it is desireable to load a missile with smart gudance to be highly maneuverable, to avoid detection. Russia is ramping up production of the RM48U missile, which is summarized by an AI search as:

The RM-48U (frequently searched as “rm480u”) is a Russian target missile originally developed for training air defense crews, which Russian forces have modified into a quasi-ballistic surface-to-surface weapon to attack ground targets in Ukraine. Derived from the 48N6-series interceptor line used in the S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft systems, it acts as a low-cost, mass-deployed strike alternative to primary ballistic missiles.

Depleting Air Defenses: Because the RM-48U mimics a true ballistic threat, it is deployed en masse to exhaust Ukraine’s limited supplies of advanced air defense interceptors like the U.S.-made Patriot system.Preserving High-End Stockpiles: Utilizing modified training munitions allows Russia to conserve its more precise and powerful strike missiles—such as the Iskander, North Korean KN-23, and hypersonic Zircon systems—for critical strategic campaigns.

Low Accuracy, High Collateral Damage: Unlike custom-built tactical strike platforms, converted air-defense missiles feature a relatively large circular error margin, deviating by an average of 300 meters from their intended targets. Russian forces mitigate this limitation by aiming them at expansive, low-value, or broad area objectives, such as large industrial facilities, food warehouses, and logistics.

So, it is easy why President Zelensky needs more Patriot missiles, which are strictly defensive missiles. The situation right now is pretty dire as the US supply of Patriots have been sent to Arab countries, since the Iran war began. The Russians know this, hence the change in tactics to deplete Ukraine’s remaining supply.

Exclusive: Ukraine reveals its Achilles’ heel to CNN as Patriot missile launchers run dry

Trump recently signed into a law a bill that gives him the authority to raise tariffs up to 100% against Russia and other countries, including China and India.

House passes Russia sanctions bill championed by Graham, sending it to Trump

Some Democrats were skeptical of this bill, as Trump seems quick to threaten tariffs to acheive his goals, but the trade wars have resulted in adding to inflation. Trump’s last initiative, to supply Ukraine with the technology to build their own Patrior missiles was DOA (dead on arrival). Patriot missile systems (launchers and missiles) are complex, and protected by patents.

Stay tuned,

Dave

European members of the G20 economic forum in North Carolina were not pleased when the Russian Finance Minister was allowed to speak at the meeting. It was another case of Trump, ignoring the countries doing everything possible to defend Ukraine and making friends with their enemies.

Trump welcomes Russia back to the G20. Europe isn’t having it.

The news below on Russia’s attack on book publishing companies, seemed pretty strange. .

Heritage under attack: Ukrainians revive interest in culture

But, it is consistent with Putin’s denial of Ukrainian culture. According to the BBC,

“In total, 139 religious sites have been hit, 214 buildings of historical or artistic interest, 31 museums, 32 monuments, 15 libraries and one archive.”

The article goes on, to describe how Russian troops in occupied areas, are cleaning out school libraries.

“As part of this policy, Russian forces have been removing and destroying Ukrainian books from schools and libraries in occupied areas, he told the BBC.”

Russian strikes destroy 12 million books ahead of Ukraine’s first week back at school

These are obviously civilian targets. Russia denies attacking civilian targets, but the destroyed warehouses filled with books tell a very different story.

Russia launched massive attacks on apartment buildings in Kyiv. Ukrainians have become accustomed to running to shelters when the sirens are sounding.

Russian drone and missile barrage kills at least 12 in Ukraine’s Kyiv

An old saying is that a good offense is often the best defense. This is particularly true for Ukraine, which is in short supply of Patriot missiles, thanks to Donald Trump. The above article states:

“Meanwhile, Ukraine’s drone forces commander says it hit 54 Russian “shadow fleet” vessels in August to prevent oil sales funding Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

So, the war continues to heat up, Europeans are fully backing Ukraine. And Trump seems to oblivious to everything, focusing on trade wars with Canada. And changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America. Seriously!

Stay tuned,

Dave

This seems to be a favorite topic among Republicans. I don’t post much about into political philosophies. I generally vote for Democrats, but I can be persuaded to vote for a Republican. I like many Republicans. If they support aiding Ukraine, so Putin can not take over the country, I would vote for a Republican. So, I am a moderate liberal, I guess.

I want real progress made on climate change and alternative energy. I hate trade tariffs. I like international cooperation, not disrupting existing relationships among our friends. Conceptually, I like “problem solving” and bipartisan efforts- this seems the opposite of what our current administration has done. I like the term “Progressive” and dislike the term Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). I like much of what the DSA supports, but one statement I find objectionable from the DSA:

“Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to exploit the rest of us for their own profit. We must replace it with democratic socialism, a system where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces, neighborhoods, and society.”

So, capitalism is bad, and democratic socialism is the answer. Actually, I would argue that “ordinary people” do have a real voice today, not is fighting against capitalism, but regulating its excesses. The latest one is huge data centers, promoted by huge corporations, which local communities around the country have stopped.

Wikipedia has a more unbiased definition of capitalism:

“Capitalism is an economic system where private individuals or businesses own the means of production (e.g., factories, land, and machinery). Resources and prices are primarily guided by market forces like supply and demand rather than central government planning. The primary driver of this system is the generation of profit.”

Capitalism, as stated above, actually sounds pretty good. But, we have seen what the happens when government regulation is lacking. The 2008 housing crash was primarily the result of relaxing rules governing financial centers loaning practices.

We celebrate entrepreneurship, where people find new products or services. Just 28 years ago, Larry Page and Sergey Brin started Google, which I use daily. Is it wrong that they are a couple of the richest people in the world? The concept of communism was to eliminate the extreme inequality of wealth that evolves with capitalism. It is obvious that this didn’t succeed, as Putin is extremely wealthy. So are leaders of other communist countries.

So, we can’t be complaining that capitalism is bad, and at the same time, enjoying the amazing advances that real entrepreneurs have developed. But, capitalism breeds cronyism and graft, and is very destructive to both capitalism and democracy. It is at the core of dictators or tyrants throughout the world, that the path to success is not through investing in your company, but political contributions.

This is where the Republican party has stood by silent, while the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was systematically destroyed. CFPB protect consumers from businesses that violate the law. . They protect borrowers, who might not read every word in a loan agreement, but who were lied to, as a matter of policy. The Trump administration had lawsuits that had already been won, dropped, because it was “bad for business.”

Sen. Warren says Trump’s CFPB overhaul has cost Americans $26.5 billion

Crooks have a friend in the White House, and the more support they give to Trump, the more likely they will be pardoned. Tax cheats take a real long time to uncover, particularly rich ones.

President Trump’s Pardons: An Embarrassment of Riches

With a stroke of a pen, a president is able to raise millions for his political party. Case in point, from the above article:

“Trump pardoned Paul Walczak (who evaded millions of dollars in taxes) after Walczak’s mother raised millions of dollars for MAGA candidates and paid a million dollars to dine with the president at Mar-a-Lago. Trevor Milton—the securities fraudster mentioned above—donated $1.8 million to Trump’s campaign before a presidential pardon wiped out all $660 million of his restitution obligations. (That is, if nothing else, an impressive ROI.)”

So, this kind of graft happens in many other countries. But, it is not good for business, as it puts honest business people at a disadvantage. It is how Venezuela and many other countries sold out their democratic principles for political contributions.

Trump even went as far as to pardon the criminals who invaded the US Capital on Jan 6, 2021. They were wearing MAGA caps and defended their action, repeating the claim that the elections were rigged. It was a clear signal to the business community, that support for Trump, gave them a certain “get out of jail free” card.

So, I am not terribly concerned with Democratic Socialists, as they would lead the charge against government corruption. Capitalism is here to stay. It needs to coincide with good government. Capitalism prime driver will always be profits. Government’s prime driver is to improve the lives of its people. It is when these two objectives clash, government must align with the the needs of the country, and not wealthy interests.

If this makes me a liberal, so be it. I am a liberal capitalist, who pays his taxes and looks for government to return to doing good things for all Americans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The New York Times provided more insight on Wednesday’s dismissal of the popular Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, by President Zelensky. He was only 35 years old, and known to be “drone-centric” although it’s a bit more complicated than this.

“Col. Pavlo Yelizarov, a deputy commander of the air force, submitted his resignation in protest of Mr. Fedorov’s dismissal. “I believe the removal of Fedorov is a great blow to the country’s defense,” he wrote in a social media post.”

Ukraine has continues to run short of sufficient funds to fund its military on the ground, and the drone based attacks on Russia. And Fedorov pushed too hard for the later.

The Defense Minister Fedorov has, of course, a very different perspective and held a news conference to attack the decision leading to his dismissal. He fought against corruption in procurement of weapons and tried to minimize troop losses through drone technology. Fedorov accused General Syrskyi of thwarted the careers of promising junior commanders. So, a real split had developed.

Fedorov said the decision-making with Ukraine is all wrong. It was a very broad accusation. Certainly, the Generals would respond that experience is an important aspect in military strategy.

“Decisions about who should be supported and who should not, who should be reinforced and who should not, are not based on data,” he said. “They are based on loyalty” to the senior commanders.

The New York Times cited another reason for dismissing Fedorov, namely his popularity in Ukraine and ambition, made him potential threat to Zelensky’s presidency:

“Mr. Zelensky’s dismissal of Mr. Fedorov, 35, sidelined a potential political rival who had seized the spotlight.”

General Syrskyi at age 60, does not have the same ambitions.

Stay tuned,

Dave’

The New York Times article is by subscription only.

There can be only one defense minister in Ukraine, that can direct the defense of their country. Many are disappointed at Zelensky’s dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov due to his bad relations with General Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Fedorov wanted General Syrskyi removed, but instead it is Fedorov who is out. And, Ukraine is without a Defense Minister. Of course, Putin know this and I am certain, will try to take full advantage of this dismissal.

Per Reuters:

Fedorov, a totemic figure for Ukrainians who see the use of technology as key to winning the war, has overseen a ramp-up in production of middle-range and deep strike drones and ​smoothed out defence procurement.
His tenure coincided with a visible improvement in Ukraine’s battlefield position after years on the back foot, as well as a spectacular campaign of drone strikes that have battered oil infrastructure and military targets deep ‌inside Russia.

I agree, The manufacturing of drones by Ukraine was an enormous step forward. The drone strikes have been highly successful. But Ukraine has to also win back territory and it needs replenish its troops. So, classic warfare verses electronic one – that’s the issue!

Ousted defence minister lays bare rift at heart of Ukraine’s war effort

Federov recent tirade against General Syrski certainly didn’t help bring unity. Zelensky can’t afford to choose sides. Rather he has to find ways to bring the sides together. This means continuing punishing strikes deep inside Russia and seizing Russian territory when possible, knowing that offensive measures are more productive than defensive ones. But the recapture of seized territory is still a top priority and it takes more boots on the ground.

Stay tuned,

Dave

“We do not want this war and never have – everyone knows this, and our partners know this,” he told reporters. “But if Ukraine is engulfed in flames, so will your Moscow be. That is why we emphasize once again that it is time to end the aggression; it is time to end this war.”

Their attack was very successful as CNN reported:

Ukraine launches largest attack on Moscow since start of full-scale war

It was good timing, as reported by CNN, “On Thursday, at a gathering of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he and Zelensky had discussed the war during a meeting a day earlier.”

US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, could have easily backed statements by Zelensky, by saying we would support Ukraine and that Russia’s invasion had failed miserably. Instead, he talked about reducing support for NATO, following Trump’s isolationist policies. See above link.

Dave

I will start with Iran. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has played a winning card and oil prices have shot up worldwide. A deal for the US must include opening up the Strait. I believe that Iran will agree to opening the Strait as long as all other conditions of the agreement are satisfied. This of course, will not make Trump happy, as he is famous for agreeing to a deal and then breaking it, claiming the other side has not lived up to the spirit of the deal.

A lot of other more complicated issues can be worked into a deal. Iran will likely not agree to the total elimination of enriched uranium, but I think they would be willing to settle for enrichment limits along the lines of the JCPOA as negotiated by Obama in 2015. This would require inspections.

So, what could US give Iran in return? Very simply, money. This relates to frozen assets, which Iran claims the US owes them. Iran is requesting the upfront release of up to $25 billion in overseas assets frozen by U.S. sanctions. Of course, the US would like a deal where they open the Strait first, and then the payment is left for future negotiations.

It would be an enormous humiliation to Trump, to make a payment. He relentlessly campaigned that Obama’s payment of 1.3 billion dollars was ransom money. It was not. It was a debt originating before 1979 on military equipment bought by Iran for 400 million dollars and never delivered. The interest on the debt came to 900 million dollars.

The other demand of Iran is a halt to the attacks of Lebanon by Israel. Trump is seriously trying to meet Iran’s demand through discussions with Israel.

So, as I see it, it is all about Trump accepting that none of the objectives of the war have been realized, and to get the Strait open, he has to accept the unfreezing of assets. This comes with terrible political consequences for Republicans who backed the war.

Next is Ukraine. Peace will only come when the political powers surrounding Putin, force him to withdraw from Ukraine. They can withdraw to the pre-2022 borders, and agree that Crimea will be part of Russia as it has been since 2014. The idea of a “buffer zone” will not work, and just be the source of new conflicts.

Putin knows that the Russian private economy is in terrible shape absent of the thriving military-industrial complex, from the war effort. I discussed this in my previous blog. So, for the war to end in Ukraine, requires another humiliation this time for Putin. In fact, if he is forced to withdraw troops, he may be forced out at the same time. There will be no deal that includes barring Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump’s great indifference to help fund Ukraine’s survival, I would say is an additional stumbling block.

This is the way I see it. Money is the stumbling block for peace in Iran. Russian withdrawal is the stumbling block for peace in Ukraine. Trump and Putin will have to accept defeat for the wars they caused and can not win.

Stay tuned,

Dave