Ukraine’s Offensive War

by Dave

Offense attacks can be the best defense.

Ukraine is succeeding on many fronts. Belarus agreed to shut down the relay stations which have been helping Russia guide their drones. See link:

Belarus halts Russian drone relay stations after Ukraine ultimatum

This means Ukraine has some political leverage over Belarus. At least for now. Lukashenko is setting some boundaries on what it will provide to Putin’s war.

Ukraine is making the war more costly for Russia with drone attacks to the south, in Crimea. Russia is claiming to have shot down many of the drones.

Ukraine unleashes one of its heaviest drone bombardments of Russia

There is no question to Ukraine’s strategy, which is to put Russia on the defensive. Pretty much what is done is asymmetrical warfare, to manufacture your own drones, then find the targets which will do the most economic harm like oil storage facilities and refineries.

It is a case of the “Mouse that roared” or “David and Goliath.” Ukraine is getting strong support from its European allies, but the US should be doing much more. It is in our national interest to stop Putin’s use of his military in a brazen land grab. It is not a border dispute between two countries, but a Russian invasion into Ukraine.

How to end the war, is not complicated. Russia needs to withdraw its troops from Ukraine. With Russia out of Ukraine, Ukraine would cease their attacks.

Zelensky is right. To bring Russia to the negotiating table, they must feel the pain, they have inflicted on Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The roads to peace – Iran and Ukraine

by Dave

Iran Road to Peace:

Trump’s attack on Iran was a failure. What Iran is demanding is the unfreezing of Iranian assets (24 billion dollars) for a demined Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated they have no intentions of developing a nuclear weapon. They said that when Obama was president eleven years ago. So, it is no concession as a result of the war.

Obama’s plan (JCPOA) would have worked, inspections of enrichment of uranium in return for the lifting of sanctions. Trump has to lift sanctions if he wants ships to be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and bring down the price of oil worldwide. It is not our oil that passes through the Strait, but oil prices depend on the global supply and demand.

Whether the MOU is a prelude to peace or war, is hard to say. It left more issues on table than off. I like to call it a 60 day cease fire agreement. Already, Trump is setting up JD Vance to take the blame for Iran negotiations failure. Trump is seeing this as a transactional deal, we pay you and get what in return? A demined strait and promises to limit enrichment? Likely much less than Obama negotiated 11 years ago.

Ironically, it was not a war that JD Vance supported. JD Vance will have little to show for agreeing to unfreeze assets, except the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be open.

‘If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD’: Vance’s risky gambit on Iran peace efforts

Ukraine Road to Peace:

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a failure. The latest attack on Moscow showed this. What Russia needs to do now, is withdraw it’s troops from Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s demand. The US should be 100% behind Ukraine. Instead, at every opportunity, we talk of reducing military support for NATO and our allies. Ultimately, Ukraine must become part of NATO, which is a mutual defense organizations for democratic European countries

It is a humiliating defeat for Putin. He doesn’t have a convenient JD Vance to blame.

Neither road is easy. Trump’s tearing up of the negotiated JCPOA and bombing Iran has been counterproductive to any objective he has stated.

Putin by himself, will not make peace with Ukraine. It must be the others in power that force him to withdraw the troops.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine’s retaliatory strike on Russia

by Dave

“We do not want this war and never have – everyone knows this, and our partners know this,” he told reporters. “But if Ukraine is engulfed in flames, so will your Moscow be. That is why we emphasize once again that it is time to end the aggression; it is time to end this war.”

Their attack was very successful as CNN reported:

Ukraine launches largest attack on Moscow since start of full-scale war

It was good timing, as reported by CNN, “On Thursday, at a gathering of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he and Zelensky had discussed the war during a meeting a day earlier.”

US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, could have easily backed statements by Zelensky, by saying we would support Ukraine and that Russia’s invasion had failed miserably. Instead, he talked about reducing support for NATO, following Trump’s isolationist policies. See above link.

Dave

The 60-day Ceasefire begins June 19

by Dave

The text of the MOU will not be released until after it is signed in Geneva on June 19. From news reports, the deal leaves a lot on the table. JD Vance described it as a “very general document.”

Already, different versions are circulating, so it is difficult to know what was resolved.

Trump: The Strait will be opened immediately and permanently Iran: The process of opening the Strait (demining) will be concurrent with negotiations.

Demining operations will begin and the intent is to allow free passage of vessels in the Strait. The Iranian version of the MOU according to their news service Fars, is:

Iran plans to impose fees after that period (60 days), with Fars saying Iran “intends to benefit financially from commercial shipping traffic through the Strait.”

Per Reuters:

“U.S. and Iranian officials say the deal could eventually deliver substantial economic benefits to Iran by lifting sanctions and unfreezing foreign assets. It could also set ​up a $300 billion reconstruction fund, paid for by neighbouring Gulf states that host U.S. military bases and were hit by Iranian attacks during the war.”

The frozen assets has been reported by Iran as 24 billion dollars.

See other details in this link:

US-Iran deal promises end to war but how it will work remains unclear

“Iranian officials, who have always denied intending to build a nuclear weapon, say they have given up little by agreeing to resume diplomatic discussions over Iran’s uranium enrichment programme that were interrupted by the war.”

Prelude to war or peace? We’ll know more on Friday.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The Staged Approach to US-Iran Negotiations

by Dave

Both Iran and the US want a 60-day cease-fire. That’s the easy one. It’s best to call it a cease-fire agreement or an interim agreement or a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). What appears to be close to done is a very fragile deal. MOU’s are frequently signed by countries to help diplomats bridge differences.

The deal can be a prelude to peace or war. If it is the latter, it will be a highly destructive war with Iran attacking US bases in the region.

I believe at its core, it will be promises of money to Iran (unfreezing of assets) in exchange for passage of ships through the the Strait. Iran is demanding the unfreezing of 24 billion dollars. Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait, but allow the passage of ships. In this way, Iran can declare victory, because this will be a major concession.

It is an agreement which will clarify points of disagreement to be hammered out during the 60 day period. What is still on the table might be more than what the agreement has taken off the table. So, I expect disappointment, rather than relief when the MOU is released.

Iran will promise not to fund terrorist groups. That’s an easy one. They fund Hezbollah, and do not consider it a terrorist group. Iran will promise not to use its uranium to make a nuclear weapon. They’ve agreed to this since the JCPOA. So, the MOU will list points Iran agreed to that have nothing to do with this conflict.

US will agree to end its blockade of Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf. It will not withdraw its 3 to 4 warships in the area, but leave this to further negotiations. Israel will not like the agreement because I believe the language related to reducing their uranium stockpile will not sufficiently specific. Just a lot of good intentions with the details to be worked out later.

In sum, I believe the ability to safely transit the Strait, will be linked to the unfreezing of assets. Bloomberg correctly identifies this as a staged approach, with the 60 day window to work on a more permanent agreement.

No question we are at the crossroads with the outcome depending on how each side judges the outcome of continued war verses compromises to peace.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Why is oil so cheap?

by Dave

Cheap? What are you talking about? Benchmark Brent Futures Contracts currently is $95.6/bbl. Average US gas price is $4.16. But, experts in this area expected prices to be much higher. They, as a whole, overestimated the affect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz based on supply-demand dynamics. (bbl = barrel, 42 gallons).

Forecasters were looking for the Brent crude to exceed $120/bbl if passage through the Strait continued to be blocked. Gas prices were supposed to be at least a dollar higher. They may ultimately be right, just off on the timing.

Total demand for oil worldwide is estimated to be 105 million bbl/day and about 20 million bbl/day was coming through the Strait of Hormuz, pre-war. This is a huge drop in supply and the dire forecasts really did make sense.

The forecasters say that prices should be much higher IF all other means of supplying oil to the world market were to stay the same. So, the modeling flaw was China’s decision to supply oil from their inventory instead of importing it. This is a delaying action, not a fix.

Every oil exporting country is keenly aware of the action of China and is looking for new routes for their oil. Of course, importing countries are also looking to add to inventories (very difficult at these prices) and cut oil demand. I like the comment by UAE’s energy minister, Sultan al-Jaber:

“Energy security is no longer just about your ability to continue to produce. “It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy.”

This is really the key strategy for oil exporters, in the short term, to get their crude to the worldwide market.

See link below:

Post-War Oil Trade Could Look Nothing Like It Did Before Hormuz

Stay tuned,

Dave

Iran and Ukraine Peace Deals

by Dave

I will start with Iran. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has played a winning card and oil prices have shot up worldwide. A deal for the US must include opening up the Strait. I believe that Iran will agree to opening the Strait as long as all other conditions of the agreement are satisfied. This of course, will not make Trump happy, as he is famous for agreeing to a deal and then breaking it, claiming the other side has not lived up to the spirit of the deal.

A lot of other more complicated issues can be worked into a deal. Iran will likely not agree to the total elimination of enriched uranium, but I think they would be willing to settle for enrichment limits along the lines of the JCPOA as negotiated by Obama in 2015. This would require inspections.

So, what could US give Iran in return? Very simply, money. This relates to frozen assets, which Iran claims the US owes them. Iran is requesting the upfront release of up to $25 billion in overseas assets frozen by U.S. sanctions. Of course, the US would like a deal where they open the Strait first, and then the payment is left for future negotiations.

It would be an enormous humiliation to Trump, to make a payment. He relentlessly campaigned that Obama’s payment of 1.3 billion dollars was ransom money. It was not. It was a debt originating before 1979 on military equipment bought by Iran for 400 million dollars and never delivered. The interest on the debt came to 900 million dollars.

The other demand of Iran is a halt to the attacks of Lebanon by Israel. Trump is seriously trying to meet Iran’s demand through discussions with Israel.

So, as I see it, it is all about Trump accepting that none of the objectives of the war have been realized, and to get the Strait open, he has to accept the unfreezing of assets. This comes with terrible political consequences for Republicans who backed the war.

Next is Ukraine. Peace will only come when the political powers surrounding Putin, force him to withdraw from Ukraine. They can withdraw to the pre-2022 borders, and agree that Crimea will be part of Russia as it has been since 2014. The idea of a “buffer zone” will not work, and just be the source of new conflicts.

Putin knows that the Russian private economy is in terrible shape absent of the thriving military-industrial complex, from the war effort. I discussed this in my previous blog. So, for the war to end in Ukraine, requires another humiliation this time for Putin. In fact, if he is forced to withdraw troops, he may be forced out at the same time. There will be no deal that includes barring Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump’s great indifference to help fund Ukraine’s survival, I would say is an additional stumbling block.

This is the way I see it. Money is the stumbling block for peace in Iran. Russian withdrawal is the stumbling block for peace in Ukraine. Trump and Putin will have to accept defeat for the wars they caused and can not win.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Zelensky’s Gambit

by Dave

President Zelensky offered a face-to-face meeting with Putin. Russia rejected this offer as meaningless. As long as Russia’s goal is total control of Ukraine, this meeting was to be for public relations only. Putin want to portray this war as defending their territory (he considers Ukraine belongs to Russia) against NATO powers. He does not want to share a stage with Zelensky.

Ukraine targets St. Petersburg again after Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer for direct talks

So, by suggesting a face-to-face meeting and having Putin reject it, Zelensky can come off as the “peacemaker.”

Ukraine is proving that it can successfully attack deep inside Russia. St. Petersburg is Putin’s hometown, and he is likely furious at Ukraine’s attack. Russian military strategists are likely now looking at a much larger circle of vulnerability in their country. perhaps 1000 km from their eastern border. . The simple strategy of depleting Ukraine’s defenses is now not so easy. If Russia puts all efforts into offense and taking more territory, Ukraine will strike behind the front lines and target everything that supplies the war effort. .

It is essential to understand what Putin seeks to gain from the war as the gains on the battlefield are nominal and supply chains are strained. Economic advisors to Putin are likely busy calculating the trade offs of war verses peace for Russia, and may be advising Putin of dire economic consequences of peace. Very perverse thinking, as peace means Russians not dying on the front lines in Ukraine. But nevertheless, a reality.

The article below, really brings home the point of the peace being an undesirable for the Russian economy, now geared to supplying the needs of military. The term “military-industrial complex” was coined after World War II, but is very applicable to Russia today.

“On one side sits a state-subsidized, demand-guaranteed military-industrial complex, expanding at a pace that would be the envy of any peacetime planner. On the other hand, a civilian economy is slowly hollowing out, starved of labor, capital, and credit.”

and then concludes:

“The military-industrial complex is not simply growing alongside the civilian economy, but is crowding it out.”

Russia’s Economy: Bent Out of Shape

So, if peace broke out with a Russian withdrawal and security needs assured by Western powers, Ukraine’s economy would soar and Russia’s economy would plummet. Ukraine could finally join NATO. And Putin’s reign would be in jeopardy.

A continued war offers little to Putin, if Ukraine can continue getting funding from the West. But peace via a withdrawal of troops brings the risk of economic collapse and enormous humiliation.

So, Zelensky had to make a political gesture, that he wants peace. The best strategy for the US is a total commitment to Ukraine, but Trump is getting more entrenched in the idea of being the peace broker, which has failed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War – Unforeseen Consequences

by Dave

February 24, 2022 marks the date, Russian troops rolled into Ukraine from Belarus. Given the military might of Russia, many experts were saying Ukraine didn’t stand a chance. So Putin thought this would be a short war. He was terribly wrong.

Putin claimed Ukraine belonged to Russia. Also, he argued that Ukraine was a threat to Russia. He used the actions of separatists in Dunbas region to argue that Russians were mistreated in Ukraine. Of course, Russia supported the separatists.

One of the unforeseen consequences of the invasion, at least from Putin’s perspective, is increase support of Ukraine from European countries. Putin sees NATO as a threat. As long as Ukraine is under attack, it will not be able to join NATO. Sweden joined NATO in 2024 and Finland in 2023. Ukraine made formal application to join NATO in September 2022. Their application will not be approved (formal accession) until the fighting ends.

To end the war, NATO must continue to expand and allow more Eastern European countries to join. Two countries in particular: Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Slowly, the message will sink in that Russia does not respect the sovereignty of its former republics.

Putin likely miscalculated the extent of support that Ukraine would receive. Ukraine needs the support of its European allies and the United States. The defeat of Prime Minister Orban of Hungary in April was critical for continued support of the European Union. Per Wikpedia “On 23 April 2026, the EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. On 24 April 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Ukraine cannot join the EU while at war, contrary to President Zelensky’s goal of EU membership by 2027.”

Trump famously stated that in this conflict, “Russia holds all the cards.” It seemed for a while, that Russia slowly was winning, in terms of increased occupied territory along the western border, Ukraine would have to settle for losing part of its country as the price of peace. Russia seemed to have an endless supply of drones and missiles, which would overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.

Finally, Ukraine has been changing its battlefield strategy, to go on the offensive. The article from the Atlantic Council suggests that SpaceX denial of illicit use of the Starlink communication system has seriously disrupted Russian communications. The Russians have taken countermeasures, now using Sprint-030 satellite terminals on the frontlines.

Ukrainian battlefield gains expose Russia’s communications problems

I am certain that since 2022, Putin never envisioned the Ukrainian attack on Russia. The Russian strategy is to continue to advance the eastern flank, with the objective of taking Kyiv and Kherson. Now they have to be concerned with defending their oil terminals, pipelines and military bases. Factories that produce military equipment are also targets.

Ukrainian drone attack triggers fire at a Russian oil terminal

Putin miscalculated Ukraine’s ability to develop and produce drones with a long-range capacity, to attack deep within Russian territory. Ukraine was not a threat to Russia in 2022, at the onset of the invasion, but it is today.

From AI to interceptors, Ukraine is trying to drone-proof its skies

From PBS:

“Ukraine’s long-range drone program features domestically produced, jet-powered, and fixed-wing kamikaze UAVs capable of striking targets up to 1,600 km away. These systems—such as the Fire Point FP-1, Beaver, and RS-1 Bars—straddle the line between cruise missiles and drones, crippling Russian energy infrastructure and military sites.”

Trade sanctions on Russian oil were in place, but Trump has temporarily lifted these sanctions:

“The Trump administration has temporarily eased select sanctions on Russian oil shipments, issuing General Licenses through the Treasury Department to allow the sale and delivery of crude oil already loaded on vessels.This waiver was implemented to mitigate global energy shortages and lower gas prices caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran. Despite initially stating the temporary exemptions would not be extended, the Treasury Department reversed course to renew the pause on select oil tanker sanctions.”

Council of Foreign Relations

As long as Russia is convinced that it can ultimately prevail, no serious negotiations leading to peace will occur.

In sum, Russia’s attempt to control Ukraine through military force is failing, both from a political and military point of view. Russia is benefiting from the Iran war through high oil prices and the lifting of sanctions. The US must do more to force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. It will take time.

Stay tuned,

Dave

How to make peace

by Dave

Just like a chemical reaction, peace negotiations are possible if certain elements are present. The first is there must be the realization on both sides, that what led to war will not be achieved, or not achieved without enormous cost and harm. This is what lead to the US to start negotiations with Vietnam, on ending the war.

On both sides of a conflict, there is a tremendous political risk in engaging in peace talks, as it will be perceived as a cowardly way to end a conflict. Therefore, secrecy and backdoor negotiations are incredibly important. Diplomats around the world, know this. In looking for solutions, you respect the offers from the other side. We seem to give respect to Russia, as they propose “Peace Plans” to end the war in Ukraine. We don’t do the same for Iran.

It is clear, that in resolving conflicts, negotiators look for possible actions or promises that might appeal to their adversaries. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a negotiation to avoid war, and unfortunately the concessions made to Iran were used very unfairly to cast Democrats as weak negotiators. A concession was made to pay Iran, 440 million dollars owed on military equipment they bought prior to 1979 but was never delivered. This grew to 1.2 billion dollars after interest for more than 25 years. This concession for peace doesn’t look too much, today.

Negotiations require diplomatic expertise and patience. This is where the team of Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and JD Vance are terribly deficient. Jared Kushner stated at a conference:

“Peace is not that different from business,” Kushner told the audience. “Both things are puzzles.”

But Kushner is conflicted as his business interests are heavily based on Affinity fund, with huge investments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar in particular, did not support the US-Israel attack on Iran.

Business deals fail all the time, and all that is lost is money and opportunity. The long term consequences of the failed Iran peace negotiations are much larger. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in shortages of oil and fertilizer worldwide. As the threats against Iran increase from Trump, more hardline leaders in Iran prevail and frustrate negotiations through more extreme demands.

Deals are made when negotiators understand the tipping points of their adversaries to make peace more acceptable than war. Having a cease-fire in place that lasts is helpful, as negotiations are terribly difficult when the battlefield is constantly changing.

I believe the current conflict in Iran can be solved without resuming the US attack on Iran. I believe there is a path to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. It is going to involve the US returning to some of the core aspects of the Iran nuclear deal, including payments of billions of dollars in “debt payments” and allowing Iran to refine some uranium for peaceful purposes. The roadblock to lasting peace is Trump and MAGA politics. We have not hit the tipping point for the US to enter in serious negotiations. Both Russia and China are winners in the conflict, supplying Iran with military weapons.

The negotiations for peace in Ukraine failed because the necessary elements were lacking. Putin ultimately wants control of Ukraine. He argues that Russia needs a “buffer zone” to protect it from Ukraine. The buffer zone will be Russia’s staging ground for a military take-over of Kyiv. Russia invaded Ukraine, and the only road to peace, is a Russian withdrawal. For that to happen, the US must support Ukraine, with all the weapons it needs to defend itself. The war must be won on the battlefield.

Stay tuned,

Dave

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Ukraine War: Attacks and Counter Attacks

by Dave

“All’s fair in love and war” goes the old saying. Yes, there are rules of engagement, and what a country can do to protect itself. International rules of war are rarely followed. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 24, 2022 and many military analysts thought Ukraine wouldn’t last six months, being totally outnumbered by Russia.

There should be no doubt what Russia wants, which is reestablishing total control of Ukraine, and destroying every aspect of an independent Ukraine. .It is estimated that Russia has suffered 1.2 million causalities (killed, wounded or missing) since the war began. It is estimated that 324,000 Russians have been killed. But Putin is undeterred.

The 3-day cease-fire ended officially on Wednesday. And then Putin began the largest attack yet in his desire to destroy Ukraine in multiple cities, with as many as 1,500 drones and missiles, in the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and throughout the country. `

Russia hammers Ukraine in biggest prolonged drone attack since war began

The intent of the massive attacks is to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses. Missiles and drones can be shot down, but it is expensive way to defend the country. The best defense at times, is a good offense, as Ukraine knows well. :

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will “not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes … go unpunished,” and would be “entirely justified” to hit Russia’s oil industry, military production in retaliation for the recent Russian attacks on the country.

Ukraine struck back as it promised:

Massive fire erupts at Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery as Ukrainian drone blitz hits multiple targets, oblasts

Russia claimed this was an attack on Russian civilians, and reported 3 people had been killed and 12 injured.

Bottom line is that Ukraine is able to attack up to 1,000 miles into Russia with drones and hit military targets. Putin is losing ground. The Ukrainians are defending their country the best way they can.

One military expert, who from the very start, understood the resilience and determination of Ukraine, was General Jack Keane, a frequent commentator on Fox News. He calls the war stalemated, and the Russian “peace demands” unreasonable, as Ukraine would have to cede a large part of their country, even parts not under the control of Russia.

Putin will not likely see the war as unwinnable, but leaders in the Kremlin can. Real peace comes when Russia decides to respect the security and sovereignty of Ukraine. Another words, accept defeat. Ukraine belongs to Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Cease-fires are a joke!

by Dave

New York Times columnist Marc Santora nailed it, as he wrote:

“Through history, cease-fires have generally been reached after lengthy processes that help warring sides achieve a lasting settlement. But in the war in Ukraine, analysts said, they have become a tool of performative diplomacy, stand-alone commodities used to manage media cycles while the machinery of war grinds along.”

It was just a 3-day cease-fire in the Russian assault of Ukraine. When it ended, Russia made up for lost time with a deadly bombing spree, including missiles, drones and guided bombs.

Trump and Putin are similar, in using cease-fires, as a means to tamping down discontent in their own countries and re-assuring the populace that the conflict would be over soon. The cost of the US attack on Iran, is really incalculable, as vital supplies of oil and fertilizer are stranded in the Straits of Hormuz. As I prepare this posting, a Chinese tanker, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil (value ~ 200 million dollars) is attempting to pass through the straits. There are shortages of both in many countries.

Russia really indiscriminately pounded Ukraine in the last few days, attacking a school and an apartment building, according to the Guardian:

” Zelenskyy said drones were intercepted over several regions but reported damage to energy facilities, apartment buildings, a kindergarten and a civilian locomotive. In Kyiv, debris from a downed drone fell on the roof of a 16-storey residential building in the northern Obolon district, sparking a fire, said the mayor, Vitali Klitschko. Two people were hurt in the central Cherkasy region, and damage was also recorded in the Zhytomyr region, farther west, and in the Chernihiv region on the Russian border.”

The Ukraine war will end only when the powers within the Kremlin realizes they will not succeed in controlling Ukraine. Putin has expanded Russia, making Belarus and Chechnya subservient to Russia. They are hard at work, intervening in Libya and Sudan. The best chance for peace in Ukraine is a total commitment to the Ukraine government.

Jim Cramer has a panel of sound buttons, which is really clever. One is scary noises, and the other is applause. The button that Trump has used and now is totally worn out is: “It will be all over soon.” The US-Iran conflict, which the US started and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (invasion) which Russia started, is not ending soon. To his base, it means just ignore the news.

The chance of achieving any of goals Trump put forward prior to his attack on Iran, is honestly in shambles. The stated that the attack allowed more moderate leaders to take control. Just the opposite really happened. He said Iran’s enriched uranium was wiped out by previous bombing. The closing of the Straits of Hormuz is Iran’s one ace card, to end the war on their terms. They are not going to discard their ace.

So cease-fires are not a prelude to peace, not in Ukraine nor in Iran.

Stay tuned,

Dave

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-truce-trump.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/13/ukraine-war-briefing-deadly-russian-bombing-spree-end-of-ceasefire

US – Iran Talks begin (sort of) in Pakistan

by Dave

April 11, It’s 3:40 pm is Islamabad. The reporters covered the US and Iranian delegations arrival to the talks. Pakistan officials met first with the Iranian delegation, then with the US delegation. Reporters stay within walking distance in a separate hotel, and are still very much in the dark.

All eyes are on JD Vance. If he is smart, he won’t say anything of substance. That’s necessary in diplomacy. JD Vance is joined in Islamabad by President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Iranian delegation, which includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, arrived earlier in the Pakistani capital.

So, it is impossible to say if this is a prelude to peace or a continuation of the war. Will US sit down with their counterparts from Iran, and actually negotiate? So far, Iran has said that any direct meeting will be limited to a one-day event.

The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is creating shortages of jet fuel, which means there will be canceling of flights from Europe. In this environment, bookings will certainly drop. I don’t think airlines can raise rates to cover the cost of increased jet fuel. There is no question that $100 plus oil prices impact the world economy..

So, US and Iran have their list of demands, set out prior to the meeting. See link below. These are 4 areas where compromises will be very difficult.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran wants ​acknowledgment of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, where it aims to collect transit fees ‌and ⁠control access in what would amount to a huge shift in regional power. The U.S. wants it opened for oil tankers and other traffic without any limitations, including tolls.

Lebanon Issue: Iran wants a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli attacks on ​Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have killed nearly 2,000 people since the ⁠start of the fighting in March. Israel and the U.S. have said the ​Lebanon campaign is not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire while Tehran insists it is.

Uranium issue: Iran wants to be allowed to enrich uranium, which Washington has ruled out and President Donald Trump has insisted ​is non-negotiable.

Unblocking of Assets: Iran ​wants the U.S. to unblock Iranian assets and end sanctions that have crippled its economy for years. Washington has indicated that it is open to significant sanctions relief but only ​in exchange for concessions from Iran on its nuclear and missile programmes.

The US froze 2 billion dollars of Iranian assets. I assume they were deposited in US banks. Worldwide it is estimated that 100 to 120 billion dollars are frozen by other countries. When Trump made his primetime broadcast on April 1 to the nation, he slammed Obama for “giving” Iran 1.7 billion dollars as follows:

“Obama gave them $1.7 billion in cash. Green, green cash. Took it out of banks from Virginia, D.C. and Maryland. All the cash they had, flew it by airplanes in an attempt to buy their respect and loyalty. But it didn’t work. They laughed at our president and went on with their mission to have a nuclear bomb”

Fact checkers immediately caught this lie. Nothing was ever given to Iran. This was their money that wasreturned to Iran. They paid $400 million dollars for military equipment in 1979 or before, and never received the equipment. So, these funds were for the return of 400 million dollars plus interest (1.3 billion dollars). I calculated the interest rate was about 4%. Trump went on primetime television, to promote a long series of lies.

Trump is in a bind of epic proportions. I listed four issues where Iran and the US are far apart. The AP article lists 3 more issues: (1) Iran wants compensation for the destruction that US has caused, (2) Iran wants withdrawal of US forces from the areaa and a permanent cease-fire while the US insists it will not withdraw, and will escalate the hostilities if the negotiations fail. (3) Israel and the U.S. both want Iran’s missile capabilities ​to be ⁠dramatically curtailed. Tehran has said its formidable missile arsenal is non-negotiable.

What are the main talking points at the US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan?

Exclusive: Iranian source says US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian funds, Washington denies it

So, the negotiations are scheduled to last two weeks. They can always extend this time.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Iran’s way of saying thanks to Putin

by Dave

Russian-Flagged Tanker Transits Hormuz Into Gulf in Rare Passage

The tanker is carrying Russian oil to Iran’s Kharg island. The capacity of this Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) is about 2 million barrels. Spot world prices for “Ural Oil” is about $122/bbl, but contract prices are likely lower. At $100/bbl, the cargo would go for 200 million dollars.

But why would Iran be exporting and importing oil at the same time? This is common due to the requirements of the refineries, which are producing a variety of hydrocarbon fuels.

Russia has been supporting Iran throughout the war, although Trump doesn’t say a word about it. Trump mostly has been verbally attacking our European allies.

Push Iran, and you don’t get compliance. You get push back.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Iran War Brief Update

by Dave

You can fool some of the people, sometimes, but not Wall Street! Well, all analysts don’t agree, But, they their collective opinion on the trajectory of oil prices, is clear: Straight up for now.

It’s clear that Trump’s optimism and indifferemce (it’s not our oil) to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz didn’t win over many investors. His speech was good for 15 minutes on Fox News, but that’s it. The average gas price is $4.12, but prices are reported much higher in California. The US Oil fund closed up 11% on Thursday, April 2.

I don’t think there is any quick solution, particularly the kind that Trump prefers (bombs). Good reporting means being there, not sitting in groups on sofas (yes -Fox News) making jokes. Being there means getting on a boat and filming stranded tankers anchored in the Strait. It’s not hard, as they likely began from Oman.

YouTube BBC Link: Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite Trump’s threats to Iran | BBC News

I don’t usually post YouTube links, but this one from CNN commentator, Fareed Zakarian is excellent.

Iran is now making twice as much oil money since war began | Fareed’s Take

At the end of his “take”, he provides a list of winners and losers to the war. If Iran is able to charge tankers for passage through the Strait, it is a winner, and can start to rebuild its military. Trump has relaxed sanctions against Russia, to increase world oil supply and with the surge in oil prices, Russia is a winner.

On the losers side (beyond the US), is Ukraine, with the diversion of military equipment to support the war, and Trump’s verbal attacks on NATO, threatening most recently to pull out of NATO. Also, European countries are suffering with the high cost of oil. Saudi Arabia is also a loser as its worldwide investments suffer.

On the winners side,are both China and Russia. With Trump loosening sanctions against Russian oil exports, Russia gains as Ukraine suffers.

Not good. Stay tuned,

Dave

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