Trump’s Speech on the Iran War

by Dave

Typical Trump speech. It was 19 minutes long. Not all of it was about Iran. From beginning to end, Trump bragged about how everything was successful. It was a long series of lies, so many that I had to categorize them into groups – Why we attaked Iran (2), Attacks on Obama (2), Death counts, Success of war and finally (2) and How incredibly successful he has been in making everything better (2).

Lie #1: Why we attacked Iran (From Factcheck.org)

Trump claimed that before the U.S. attacked, Iran “would soon have had missiles that could reach the American homeland,” but arms control experts have disputed Trump’s claim.

Lie #2: Why we attacked Iran (Factcheck.org)

The president said that Iran was “right at the doorstep” of “a nuclear bomb.” Arms control experts have said that there’s a lack of evidence that Iran was rebuilding its nuclear program before the U.S./Israeli military operation and that a nuclear weapon wasn’t “imminent.”

LIe #3: Attacks on Obama’s Plan:(AP Fact checking site)

Trump criticized an Obama-era agreement that he said “would have led to a colossal arsenal of massive nuclear weapons for Iran” if Trump hadn’t ended it in his first term. That’s Trump’s opinion. One arms control group estimated the withdrawal from the agreement sped up the time it would take for Iran to produce weapons-grade uranium.

The agreement was called the JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, It would have required Iran to be subjected to closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. See link at end of this post.

Lie #4 (Misleading information): Obama gave Iran 1.7 billion dollars in cash (AP website)

The U.S. Treasury did pay Iran roughly that amount under Obama. But it was not a gift. Rather, it was money owed to the Iranians since the 1970s, when they paid the U.S. $400 million for military equipment that was never delivered because the government was overthrown and diplomatic relations ruptured.

After the 2015 deal to restrain Iran’s nuclear development, the U.S. and Iran announced they had settled the matter, with the U.S. agreeing to pay the $400 million principal in cash, along with about $1.3 billion in interest. Trump later took the U.S. out of the deal.

So, we basically ripped off Iran about 38 years ago, keeping their money and not delivering the military eqipment. It was right not to give them the military equipment, but we shoud have given them back the 400 million dollars.

Yet, I was suprised at the $1.3 billion in interest payments. But, this debt dated back at least ot 1978 or earlier. Assuming the debt ran from 1978 to 2014, I calculate the interest rate of the debt to be 4.1%,a very reasonable interest rate. The money owed on debt at 4.1% interest doubles every 19 years.

Lie #5: Death count of protesters.(AP website)

“This murderous regime also recently killed 45,000 of their own people who were protesting in Iran.”

There is no basis for the 45,000 value. The use of deadly force against protesters in January was an atrocity. The Iranian government put the death toll at 3,117, stating that 2,447 were civilians and security forces, and the rest were “terrorists.” And the government blamed the US and Israel for the protests. It is likely understimated and other estimates are presented on the AP website. We did not attack Iran because of the January massacre.

AP states 53,000 people were arrested. Big difference between being arrested and being killed.

Lie #6: Success of the attack (AP website)

“Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death. They’re all dead. The new group is less radical and much more reasonable.”

From the AP website: “Trump’s depiction of the people now in charge in Iran, after scores of senior leaders were killed in the war, stretches credulity. Israel’s airstrike at the start of the war Feb. 28 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran then installed his son, Mojtaba, who is viewed as even more hard-line, as supreme leader. The monthlong war has seen Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard grow even more ascendant. Iran’s civilian leadership — broadly untouched by the war — acknowledges it has little command and control over the Guard’s actions.

Both Trump and Israel have signaled they would tell the Iranian people to rise up at a point in the war to take back their government. That hasn’t happened.”

Trump is purposely vague about the “new group” Experts consider that the US and Israel attacks resulted in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is really their military, being more in control of the country than the civilian leadership,

Lie #7: Destroying Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons (Factcheck.org)

Trump said the U.S. “totally obliterated” three nuclear facility sites in Iran last June. Experts and a classified U.S. intelligence report said the sites were damaged and Iran’s uranium enrichment program was set back, but the sites and the country’s nuclear capabilities weren’t completely destroyed.

The president went on to say that Iran “sought to rebuild their nuclear program at a totally different location, making clear they had no intention of abandoning their pursuit of nuclear weapons.” He said the country was “right at the doorstep” of “a nuclear bomb, a nuclear weapon, a nuclear weapon like nobody’s ever seen before.”

As we reported last month, Kimball told us that “[w]hile Iran’s nuclear program remains a medium- to long-term proliferation risk, there was and is no imminent Iranian nuclear threat; Iran is not close to ‘weaponizing’ its nuclear material so as to justify breaking off negotiations and launching the U.S.-Israeli attack.” (see factcheck.org link at the end of this blog)

Lie #8 “We’re now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet we are there to help. We don’t have to be there. We don’t need their oil.’’ (AP Website)

From the AP fact checking: “It’s true that the United States is by far the world’s leading producer of oil and relies on the Persian Gulf for a fraction (8.5% in 2025) of the oil it imports. But, as is obvious at U.S. gas pumps, that doesn’t mean it is unaffected by the turmoil in the Middle East.

Oil is a commodity, “the price of which is set in a global market,’’ University of Chicago energy analyst Sam Ori said before Trump’s speech, “and a disruption anywhere affects the price everywhere.’’ Which is why the price of benchmark U.S. crude oil is up more than 50% since the Iran war began, and the average price of U.S. gallon of gasoline cracked $4 a gallon this week.”

Lie #9: Trump cited “record-setting setting investments coming into the United States, over $18 trillion.”

Trump has presented no evidence that he’s secured this much domestic or foreign investment in the U.S. Based on statements from various companies, foreign countries and the White House’s own website, that figure appears to be exaggerated, highly speculative and far higher than the actual sum. The White House website offers a far lower number, $10.5 trillion, and that figure appears to include some investment commitments made during the Biden administration.

A study published in January raised doubts about whether more than $5 trillion in investment commitments made last year by many of America’s biggest trading partners will actually materialize and questions how it would be spent if it did.

Lie #10: “Under my leadership, we are No. 1 producer of oil and gas on the planet, without even discussing the millions of barrels that we’re getting from Venezuela,” Trump said. “Because of the Trump administration’s policies, we produce more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. Think of that. Saudi Arabia and Russia combined, and that number will soon be substantially higher than that.”

As we’ve written, the U.S. has been the world’s No. 1 producer of petroleum, which includes both crude oil and refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, since 2013, and it has produced the most crude oil, including lease condensate, since 2018, as was long predicted. The International Energy Agency said in a 2012 energy outlook report that the U.S. was projected to become “the largest global oil producer” by “around 2020” due to advances in shale extraction technology.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been the leader in natural gas production even longer — since 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The U.S. overtook Russia to become the top producer of natural gas, and it has produced more of it than Russia and Saudi Arabia, combined, in all but one year since 2014.

Saudi Arabia and Russia had produced the most petroleum and crude oil until the U.S. surpassed them years ago. The U.S. has produced more petroleum than Saudi Arabia and Russia together since 2024, but it does not produce more crude oil than those two countries combined.

I note that the US production increase has been largely the result of deep water exploration in the Gulf of Mexico and the frakking of tight sands. The latter has increased recently, because of the increase in gas prices as a result of increase demand to power data centers devoted to AI and bitcoin mining.

Lie -#11: Basically, Biden killed the economy, and I made America great again (Factcheck.org)

Trump repeated his false claims about turning around a country that was “dead and crippled” economically.

“We built the strongest economy in history,” he said. “We’re going through it right now, the strongest in history. In one year, we’ve taken a dead and crippled country, I hate to say that, but we were a dead and crippled country after the last administration, and made it the hottest country anywhere in the world by far, with no inflation, record-setting investments coming into the United States over $18 trillion and the highest stock market ever, with 53 all-time record highs in just one year.”

Trump didn’t create the “strongest” economy in his first or second term as president. Economists generally measure a nation’s health by the growth in real (meaning inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product. In his first year back in office, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said that real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in 2025, which was down from the annual rate of 2.8% in 2024 under his predecessor.

In addition, as of February, the unemployment rate in the U.S. had increased to 4.4% — up from 4% when Trump took office in January 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

There is also still inflation, even though the annualized rate, based on the Consumer Price Index, did decline from 3% in January 2025 to 2.4% as of February. Overall prices may have increased further since then. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is predicting that the annual inflation rate in March was back up to 3%, largely because of the impact that the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran is having on energy prices.

And Trump continues to inflate the total amount of investments he has secured from foreign companies and countries. The White House’s own website puts the figure at $10.5 trillion — not $18 trillion. But as we’ve written, even that number cannot be substantiated because it includes pledges and planned investments that may not materialize, as well as some investments that may not be due to Trump.

Conclusion:

It was largely a feel-good speech if you were a devote Trump believer. To the rest of us, it was packed with lies, and tiring to hear it again The takeaway was, unfortunately, bombs work better than talk. Obama worked out an imperfect but workable solution with onsite inspections to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons.

Wars have horrible consequences. United States was “likely” responsible for bombing of girls’ school in Iran, per early U.S. assessment. Yet Trump could boast that he took action that no other president dared to do.

I think the PBS review of his speech nailed it, as he didn’t tell us anything we already know. It was a quick sales job. What he didn’t say was probably more telling as he has constantly been claiming that the US and Iran were holding talks in Pakistan to end the conflict. Not a word in his speech of how this war would end.

PBS also noted that there was no mention of NATO or any European powers. He took a convenient off ramp to the soaring world-wide oil prices. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz because of the Israel and US attack, and very predictably, gas prices have increased about 30% to 50%. Trump is definitely right, tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz are mainly destined to Asia, not the US. But, the shortages of oil, means worldwide prices increase.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

PBS: 4 takeaways from Trump’s address on the Iran war

CBS News: United States was “likely” responsible for bombing of girls’ school in Iran, per early U.S. assessment

FACT FOCUS: False claims Trump made as he addressed the nation about Iran

FactChecking Trump’s Prime-Time Address on Iran

Straits of Hormuz Controversy

by Dave

“A lot of people think international relations is like a game of chess. But it’s not a game of chess, where people sit quietly, thinking out their strategy, taking their time between moves. It’s more like a game of billiards, with a bunch of balls clustered together.” Former Secretary of State Madeline Albright.

Might makes right. This is exactly Trump’s gameplan. We triumph over our enemies. Seize Maduro, threaten to take over the Panama canal, make threats to invade Greenland and economically cripple Cuba (which honestly we’ve done).

And in his second term, he’s definitely surrounds himslf with inexperience people who will agree with him, every step of the way. Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth. And his “outside advisers” Mohamed bin Salam (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (israel).

In all this fury and bravo, to Trump, international law is forgotten. The sovereignty of nations is lost. This unfortunately puts Trump and Putin in the same camp. Long diplomatic discussions do not make headline news.

But, he should have paid more attention to the Straits of Hormuz. Iran has controls this 24 mile critical passage for all cargo ships. Iran wants the US to acknowledge their sovereignty over the strait as part of a negotiated peace.

Iran has a new demand to end the war – and it could bring in billions

“Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous to the world, and it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it,” Rubio said after a G7 meeting in France.

All of a sudden, Marco Rubio is an internationalist! We need unity and respect for international law.

Is what Iran is suggesting illegal?

An agreement between the US and Iran, allowing them to charge a toll to pass through the strait would violate the right to free passage of all ships. However, these rights are part of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The US and Iran are not parties to this Convention. Big mistake!

Parties to UNCLOS

Wikipedia identifies countries like the US which never signed and ratified the convention and are not party to the current agreement. Ronald Reagan, a Republican, opposed the Law of the Sea Convention in 1982. President Bill Clinton, signed the 1994 agreement, yet we are not a party to the Convention.

Other counties that are not party to UNCLOS include Iran, Israel, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea, Turkey and Libya. The reasons for the US not joining, are summarized on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

It is interesting that President Bush, a Republican, was in favor of joining the Convention. Other organizations like the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying group for the oil industry, were in support of joining UNCLOS.

Trump weakens critical alliances, affecting Ukraine support

by Dave

On March 18, Trump lashed out at NATO and European leaders for not supporting the US in the attack on Iran. The idea that the bombing of Iran was in response to an “imminent threat” to the US is a lie. We’ve seen this before. Take action first and if it doesn’t pan out like we thought, invent a justification for our act.

Of course, Ukraine worries about ‘losing the Americans’ as global attention shifts to the war in the Middle East. Russia is an imminent threat to Ukraine. And the fall of Ukraine would mean the end to self-rule of 33 million people. Russia strategy is to bleed Ukraine dry by destroying their infrastructure, with a focus on energy.

Ukraine worries about ‘losing the Americans’ as global attention shifts to the war in the Middle East

Also from the BBC, President Zelensky stated that Donald Trump was not on any side of the war:

Ukraine faces missile shortage due to Middle East war, says Zelensky

I particularly like Zelensky’s comment:

“The regimes in Russia and Iran are brothers in hatred and that is why they are brothers in weapons,” Zelensky said. “And we want regimes built on hatred, to never, never win in anything. And we want no such regime to threaten Europe or our partners.”

Russia will continue to buy drones and other equipment from Iran. And of course, Iran needs the money. After the bombing stops, Iran will continue to fund the Revolutionary Guard. Why? Because the current government wants to stay in power, and the Revolutionary Guard has all the weapons. Iran will continue to be a radical, authoritarian controlled country.

On March 17, the Director of National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned. He strongly disagreed with Trump, that Iran posed an imminent threat to the US. He reported to the Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Security. Joe Kent had many years serving in the US military, In his resignation letter, he wrote:

“… it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

I believe Donald Trump saw Joe Kent on Fox News, and he looked good, so he tapped him for this very important position. Plus, Kent supported the idea that the 2020 election was rigged. I’ve included his biography at the end of this blog.

Trump made it clear in his news conference that he will only supply weapons to Ukraine that they pay for. So, this forced Zelensky to beg for a loan from the European Council. It is a big loan (103 billion dollars) . The President of Hungary, Viktor Orban, is holding up the loan.

EU leaders slam Hungary’s Orban for blocking Ukraine aid package

Orban agreed on the loan in December, last year. Then a missile attack hiit the Druzhba pipeline, which supplied Russian oil to Hungary. Zelensky promised the pipeline would be repaired and the EC would help. It did not stop Orban from using his veto to stop the loan. Orban says the pipeline is already in service.

Viktor Orban is an extreme right wing and corrupt politician. He faces re-election in April. He is a strong supporter of Donald Trump. And Trump endorsed his re-election.

While the rest of the country is focused on Iran and increasing gas prices, I will continue to follow the events in Ukraine. It is certainly a very interconnected world we live in and I fear that policy decisions in Washington, are made without full consideration of the consequences.

More clearly, Putin and Orban pose a real threat to Europe. the thought of 33 million people, who are defenders of democracy, and proud to be Ukrainians, overun by a brutal dictator, Vladimir Putin, really worries me. Ukraine deserves better.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump endorses Prime Minister Viktor Orban for Hungary’s April election

Viktor Orban

Joe Kent

War does not take a vacation

by Dave

Russia’s attack is relentless and brutal. Putin war tactic is pretty simple: Make Ukrainians freeze without energy. Drone attacks are targeting apartments and infrastructure, like power plants.

Putin will never sign a peace agreement that includes security guarentees for Ukraine and withdrawal of his troops. That’s not his aim. He wants the US out of the war, so he can declare victory.

The reality of the war is on the ground with massive drone attacks from Russia, particularly in the south of the Ukraine. This is how they want to seize Kyiv, from the North, East and South.

The rest is hot air. Zelensky is playing along with Trump, that the peace negotiations are promising, and they are “90%” complete. Zelensky needs US support badly.

The latest nonscense came Putin then Trump, that Ukraine had attacked Putin’s home. Well, one of his homes.

“It’s not the right time to do any of that, and can’t do it,” the president said. “And I learned about it from President Putin today. I was very angry about it.”

Wow, that was super dumb response. Any other President would be more cautious, saying that our intelligence agencies would be checking this out.

According to CNN sources, the CIA could find no evidence that this drone attack on Putin’s residence took place.

Link: CIA assesses Ukraine was not targeting a Putin residence in drone attack, contrary to Kremlin claim, sources say

The commentary from CNN, December 3, really nails it, with one single line, “Putin is not looking to buy a hotel.” He is not looking to evict squatters on his property, or adjust property lines. He wants 100% control of Ukraine.

See link: Putin sends Trump’s messengers packing, with eyes on a geopolitical win, CNN Dec 3, 2025

Putin sees Trump as weak. Per the above CNN commentary, “When he [Putin] hears Trump say Ukraine is not his war, that he doesn’t want to waste money on it, and just wants it to end, he hears frailty and disinterest from the world’s biggest military power.”

The commentary goes on, “He [Putin] has reset the Russian industrial complex to a ferocious war footing, and arguably must have as serious a plan to demobilize a now frail, over-stretched nation. In many ways, a continued war is Putin’s best shot at a continued reign.”

Sadly, this is exactly right. And Putin has partners in crime, namely China, North Korea and Iran. And even India finds the benefits of buying Russian oil better than helping Ukraine.

The US should be right now allied with Europe, calling the war for what it is, a Russian invasion.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine war update

by Dave

There is the reality on the ground, and a lot of hot air elsewhere. It is clear that Russia intends to destroy Ukraine’s power sources. The Institute for the Study of War, provides the most detailed update of this strategy. Their update as of December 15 states:

“Russian strikes appear to be advancing the Kremlin’s stated goal of degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s power grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air defense systems and partner support for its drone interceptor development to safeguard itself against increasingly devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure.”

See link: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15-2025/

From the above link, “Russian forces launched 9,298 drones and 270 missiles in October 2025, 5,444 drones and 216 missiles in November 2025, and 2,757 drones and 91 missiles in December 2025 as of December 15.”

Ukraine has counter-attacked with some recent successes. “Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against a Russian submarine for the first time in naval history on the night of December 14 to 15.”

Now, the hot air of the “Peace Talks.” From CNN reporting, “Roughly 90% of the issues between Russia and Ukraine have been solved, one of the US officials said earlier Monday, describing the issue of territorial concessions as a remaining sticking point. The US side offered ‘thought-provoking’ ideas on how to resolve the impasse, the official said, including the development of an ‘economic free zone.'”

So, this is all posturing for political reasons. I believe Russia has little interest in partial control of Ukraine. Trump dislikes long term security alliances, which is essential for Ukrainian security.

Trump says end to Ukraine war closer than ever, but US officials caution security guarantee offers won’t last forever

The invasion in Ukraine through Belarus began on February 4, 2022. Whenever the subject of Ukraine came up during the campaign, Trump had really just two pat answers to almost any question. One we heard a thousand times, and that was “This war would never have happened if I were president.” The second was “I will end the war on day one of my presidency.” Of course, the first statement was designed to put the blame on Biden (or later Harris) for not being tough on Putin. The second one was typical election rhetoric. It was similar to Ted Cruz, which promised to fix all problems on day one.

I’m sorry to say this, but the idea that the peace agreement is 90% done is just Trump administration’s political rhetoric. Per the CNN link below, “There is still no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin actually wants a peace settlement, European and NATO officials have said. “

Ukraine presents response to US peace plan as Trump says European leaders want a meeting

One does not try to attack and destroy the energy infrastructure of a country it seeks to make peace with. Actions speak louder than words. Russia’s intent is to make Ukraine subservient part of Russia with a puppet regime in Kyiv.

Stay tuned,

Dave

No US Tomahawks from the US

by Dave

The decision not to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles weakens Ukraine’s defenses. The war has no quick end. Trump wants to appease Putin, and this is a huge error.

Trump continues a theme that peace could be just around the corner if Putin and Zelensky would just sit down and cut a deal. Putin does not want a third of Ukraine, he wants it all. He wants Zelensky and the elected government gone.

“The massive overnight strike — launched hours before the conversation between Putin and President Trump — exposes Moscow’s real attitude toward peace,” Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna said in a statement Thursday.

Olga Stefanishyna was appointed to her post as the Ukrainian ambassador to the US in August 2025. Her message is clear, Putin talks peace, but he means surrender or we will destroy you. The Tomahawks would help Ukraine strike military bases within Russia, and make the war painful to them.

Olga Stefanishyna biography

Representing the US in the latest summit with Putin, is Steven Witkoff, a real estate executive. An excerpt from the Wikipedia post follows.

Steven Witkoff

In the interview, Witkoff spoke positively of Vladimir Putin. He called Putin a “great guy” and “super smart”. Witkoff said “I liked him, I think he was honest” and “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy”.[72][73][74] According to Witkoff, Putin told him that he prayed for “his friend” Donald Trump following the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.

Putin sees Steven Witkoff as someone anxious to cut a deal, without an understanding of what is at stake beyond the popularity of Donald Trump. Giving away 1/3 of Ukraine will give Putin a perfect base to continue his war. Ukraine must be defended, and it will take US joining with our allies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Who is escalating the war in Ukraine?

by Dave

Russia claims Ukraine started the war and now is using the US and NATO to escalate or enlarge the war in Ukraine. There was definitely a “Donbas War” between Ukrainian separatists, wanting self rule for the region and Ukrainian military. But the Russian military was supporting the separatists with military troops. This is why Ukraine claims the invasion of Ukraine began in 2014 on their eastern border, and that the invasion on their northern border in February 2022 was an escalation of a war. The evidence from intelligence sources clearly backs up Ukraine’s perspective. The war is not a 3 year conflict, but an 11 year conflict.

War in Donba

The war started in 2014, with the Russians overtly supporting the separtists in eastern Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea in the south. The invasion in 2022 by Russia, made clear that their objective was control of the entire country, by military force. In February 2022, the Russians sent an armored column of tanks from Belarus to Kyiv, to seize the capitol. They failed.

Now, we are in a different phase of the war. There is a saying that “The best defense is a good offense” originated with George Washington in 1799. It is being used by the Ukraine’s military against the Russian attacks on their cities.

Russia has escalated the war, with a massive attack on Ukraine energy infrastructure. As noted in the AP press release, it is Russia’s strategy to increase the pain of war, by cutting off energy sources during the winter.

“Each year, Russia has tried to cripple the Ukrainian power grid before the bitter winter season, apparently hoping to erode public morale. Winter temperatures run from late October through March, with January and February the coldest months.”

Ukraine has retaliated with attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Russia attacks Ukraine’s power grid as Moscow worries over US Tomahawk

Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying energy war brings gas shortages and economic pain

Offense is much cheaper than defense. Drones costing $80,000 are shot down by missiles costing over a million dollars. Ukraine has no option but to defend its country and attack Russia. The Ukrainian offense must be well targeted to military and industrial facilities, because it depends on EU and US support. Russia’s allies (China, North Korea and Iran) don’t have the same humanitarian concerns. They will benefit by manufacturing and selling drones and missiles to Russia.

What Ukraine wants is Tomahawk missiles, which will extend the range of Ukraine’s attacks into Russia, and force Russia to use its military resources to defend itself. Talks between Ukraine and US are ongoing as discussed in the AP article. So this is an escalation of the war, but I see no way to stop it.

I support Trump’s initiative to get tough with all countries buying oil from Russia. But extreme tariffs on India and China, result in retaliatory tariffs, hurting the US economy. And we need India’s support.

I feel for the residents of Ukraine and Russia who will suffer the consequences of this war, and I wish this war to end. But, Ukraine must remain a free Ukraine, not threatened by Russia. For this reason, US military and humanitarian aid is vital. Ultimately, it must be part of the NATO alliance, because this is the only way to deter Putin’s expansionary policies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The Enemy from Within

by Dave

Trump believes sending in military troops into cities is necessary to combat rising crime and what he calls “the enemy from within.” We have our problems. And there are times, where our military troops or reservists need to be called into action. But it must be done with the cooperation with the state government and local police.

The enemies from within are ignorance, misinformation and apathy. Social media, namely Facebook and Youtube, are not news outlets. Anybody can post there (including myself) and unfortunately, people read and share many falsehoods.

I will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine, which includes both military actions and economic sanctions. Global politics are an important part of this, as our most recent post, cited Putin’s attempt to show solidarity among world leaders of his invasion of Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War: Unity among our Putin’s Partners, Latest developments

by Dave

The Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) Conference and the military parade in Beijing immediately following the conference was to promote solidarity among our adversaries. It took place for just two days, August 31 and September 1. Donald Trump with his fixation on the trade imbalance, made it completely acceptable for India’s Prime Minister Modi to stand along side Putin and Xi Jinping.

The military parade further extended the visit of world leaders to September 3. It was to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. It was much more than this, the conference was designed to push forward economic cooperations with world leaders, and demonstrate China’s military power as well.

Trump’s foreign policy hinges on a false misconception – if you push hard enough, there will come compliance. What comes from the US unilaterally pushing, is push back, and between Putin and Xi Jinping, this was painfully obvious. There are 10 members to this organization which includes Iran, which is critical to designing and manufacturing drones with increased capacity to avoid being shot down.

North Korean President Kim Jong Un arrived by train to Beijing on September 2 so he could observe the military parade, and for meetings with Xi and Putin. See ABC news link:

North Korea’s Kim crosses into China to meet Xi, Putin for Beijing military parade

Trump appeared to make a major policy change, in his rambling speech to the UN:

“President Donald Trump said Tuesday afternoon that he thinks Ukraine, with help from the European Union, could win back its territory from Russia and return the country to its original borders. Trump had previously suggested numerous times that giving up some land would be a key component of resolving Ukraine’s war with Russia.”

So, did he mean original 2022 borders, after Crimea was taken by Russia? Or the 2014 borders with Crimea part of Ukraine. He hasn’t clarified this.

Trump says he now thinks Ukraine can win back all territory taken by Russia

Now, is Trump backing up his words with actions? Or backing down? It is difficult to say.

For Ukraine to wage a completely defensive, it would mean expending much more capital than Russia. To spend one million dollars to shoot down a drone costing $80,000 dollars is not cost efficient. And, the drone that is shot down, may be a decoy, costing practically nothing. Offense is many fold cheaper than defense. So, Ukraine wants attack cruise missiles from the US, namely the Tomahawk missiles, so it can attack targets within Russia.

Russia has numerous cruise missiles, which vary in terms of range, speed, payload and other capabilities. The BrahMos cruise missile has many variations and is jointly produced by Russia and India.

The US manufactured Tomahawk missiles also has many variants. The missile under consideration for Ukraine would have a range of 1,550 miles, and cost approximately 1.3 million dollars. Russia has stated that this would represent a significant escalation of the war.

Trump has stated that before providing the Tomahawks to Ukraine, he wants to know exactly how they are to be used. Of course, Ukraine will pledge to use the missiles for industrial and military targets, but once Ukraine has the missiles, they will select the targets.

The news story cited below is from October 2. Sources suggest the US will not provide the Tomahawks because our inventory is low. Our inventory of missiles is classified information, but some estimate US to have about 4,000 Tomahawk missiles.

US Tomahawk missile shipments to Ukraine unlikely, sources say

Ukraine continues an offensive war against Russia using drones. Ukraine claims drone strikes against ammo plant, oil terminal and weapons depot using drones. Russia continues attacks with large swarms of drones, attacking Ukraine infrastructure including gas pipelines, residential homes and other buildings.

War is both ugly and sad. But, to return Ukraine to Russian control, after 34 years of independence, with so many Ukrainians having given their lives defending their sovereignty and democracy is even sadder. So, if the US can not or does not choose to arm Ukraine with cruise missiles, I am hoping the European countries will.

China’s display of unity, with the world’s bad actors, namely Russia, North Korea and Iran has to be countered with US-European unity. Regaining India as an ally will require great diplomatic skill, and compromise. Forming alliances and long-term commitment is not what Trump does easily. But this is exactly the counter punch to the spectacle in China in September.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Cuban and North Korean Mercenary forces

by Dave

Russia is paying citizens of North Korea and Cuba to fight, and die on the battlefields of Ukraine. Why? Because the desperate economic conditions in these countries means the $2000 per month salary looks good. As explained in the link, many of them are killed within five months, and there are grieving families in Russia when they are gone. Apparently, Russia only says they are missing, not dead.

Andriy Yusov is a Ukrainian spokeperson for the Ukrainian intelligence. He shared information with US Representatives at a briefing on the use of mercenaries in Ukraine.

“Taking into account the totalitarian nature of Cuban regimes, such recruitment could not have taken part without the blessing of the Cuban regime,” Yusov said. He also added many recruits are victims of fraud, with some being held even after their contracts expire.

Ukraine estimates that 20,000 foreign mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine. See September 19 link: Cuba sends thousands of its people to fight for Russia in war with Ukraine, say Ukrainian officials

But, estimates vary on how many Cubans and North Koreans are currently fighting in Ukraine. From the link above, Ukrainian intelligences estimates more than 1,000 Cubans mercenaries have signed contracts to fight in Ukraine. North Korea initially supplied 10,000 troops in fall of 2024, of which it is believed that 4,000 have died in combat. The meeting between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kim Jong-un in North Korea on July 6, 2025 was pivotal, as a few day later North Korea pledged to triple the number of troops, to 25,000 to 30,000. It is unknown how many North Koreans Kim Jong-un will actually send to Ukraine. See link below:

The Second North Korean Wave in Ukraine: What Next as Pyongyang’s Troops Arrive on Russia’s Front Lines?

The drone and missile aerial war continues with one of the largest “swarm” attacks ever. See link below:

Russia attacks Ukraine with one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, killing four and injuring dozens

I will end on a positive note, and that is the Moldova elections went in favor of the pro-EU party despite Russia’s attempt to sway the population. See link:

Moldova’s ruling pro-EU party wins election marred by claims of Russian meddling

This is not a cold war, but a hot one. Had pro-Russian party won the elections, Russia would have a strong base, SW of Ukraine, to continue its invasion of Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Our focus on Ukraine

by Dave

We will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine. I know there are many news stories out there. Last week Charlie Kirk, today it is the shooting at the Dallas ICE facility plus the indictment of James Comey.

Absolutely, the shootings are tragic events, and nothing is ever gained. Human life is precious. I feel for the survivors, the widows and children. I have faith that the police will find the shooter who killed an immigrant and wounded others at the Dallas facility.

Tragic events are happening in Gaza now, and it is extremely sad. A war that targets the general population is called genocide and this is an international crime. I don’t see how this advances peace.

James Comey will have his day in court. The Justice Department felt there was sufficient evidence to charge James Comey. The Grand Jury agreed with indicting him on two counts. It will take months to resolve. It is a felony crime to give false testimony to Congress. He is innocent of all charges until proved guilty in a court of law. Everyone, including Donald Trump wants to rush to judgement and have him tried in the media.

So, I will be posting more on the Ukraine war, and avoid the more popular “news de jour” with contrasting points of views from Fox, MSNBC, CNN and of course, the usual noise (to put it mildly) from social media.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Russia’s Math and Politics in Winning the War

by Dave

Russia wants to intensify their attack, after nearly a million Russians have been killed, captured or injured. They want to scale up, but it is increasingly clear this is a war on a budget. But the goal is the same, total control of Ukraine.

First the Math. Offense is much cheaper than defense. Shooting down a drone that costs $80,000 with a missile that costs 1 to 2 million dollars, is not economical. In fact, the defenders of a country will soon go broke this way. It is why Ukraine is increasingly going on the offense – and Russia is well aware of this.

In the prior posting, I discussed the use of massive swarms of missiles and drones. Missiles are very expensive compared to drones, so they are a small but lethal part of the attack. Russia is deploying hypersonic ballistic missiles, “normal” ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles in their attack in Ukraine.

Cruise missiles stay low to the ground to avoid detection. They use a combination of different navigation systems, including terrain contour matching (using onboard imaging with stored maps) to make course corrections. They are accurate to 5 to 7 meters of their target.

Hypersonic ballistic missiles are the most expensive, costing between 10 to 15 million dollars. The next generation of hypersonic missiles are really scary things, combining high speed and maneuverability to avoid being shot down. So, the super expensive Patriot missile systems, which Ukraine has only 6 to 8 launchers and been begging for more, may be no match if the aerial assault uses hypersonic missiles.

Ballistic missiles that can destroy Patriot and HIMAR (highly mobile missile systems) systems are highly cost effective. Patriot systems cost 1.1 billion dollars, compared to up to 15 million dollars for the missile.

These missiles are very scary and the long range implications are real. They can use conventional and nuclear warheads. They are being produced in North Korea, Russia and the China. Also, the US is producing them. See link below:

Explainer: Why is North Korea testing hypersonic missiles and how do they work?

Less expensive non-hypersonic cruise and ballistic missiles are being mass produced in Russia.

Swamped? The Math of Ukraine’s Missile Crisis

“An examination of the output numbers for ballistic and other missiles, and drones, show sharply rising output at low cost, while Western interceptors are produced far more slowly and at much greater expense” per the above above article.

Also in the article: “Modified Iskander variants deploy radar decoys, irregular flight paths, and terminal-phase maneuvers designed to degrade Patriot effectiveness. Ukrainian data from April and May 2025 confirms declining intercept rates during saturation strikes. Interceptor overuse combined with degraded hit probability accelerates depletion.”

Drones have been improving in speed, with the Geran-3 capable of speeds up to 250 mph. At present, swarms of up to 800 drones are launched together, and some experts suggest that they may increase to as many as 2,000 drones launched together.

Some of the drones may be decoy drones. See Google AI summary below:

In the Ukraine War, Russia uses drone decoys, such as plywood or foam imitations of Shahed drones, to overwhelm and deplete Ukraine’s air defense systems. These decoys are launched in large numbers alongside actual attack drones and missiles, creating mass barrages intended to force Ukrainian forces to waste expensive interceptor missiles on cheap, non-lethal targets. The strategy aims to degrade Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, allowing more of Russia’s actual weapons to reach their intended targets.

The decoys can help locate the bases for the interceptor missiles and target them early in the attack. See BBC article on decoys:

Link: BBC article on Drones

Link: The Phony War: Ukraine and Russia’s Decoy Drones

Russia is increasingly turning to bright young teenagers, to design advanced drones.

Link: Russia using children to design and test its military drones, investigation finds

It is all about gaining air superiority in advance of sending in ground troops. Putin will increasingly rely on North Korean troops in the ground offensive.

Now the politics and economics. This is a huge business. Developing these weapon systems, requires expertise and committed funding for research. Russia is forging alliances with Iran, North Korea and China to extend its military power. North Korea is very eager to be the supplier of advanced weapon systems and the military troops to fight Russia’s war. Ukraine is the training ground for young Koreans to become combat hardened. As many as 40% of the troops North Korea sends to Ukraine will not be returning. It is a very cruel business.

The idea that the US could use sanctions as a means of restraining Putin, and making the war too costly to pursue, is failing. It began with Biden and continued with Trump.

Trump has tried to convince India and Brazil to stop importing oil (India) and petroleum products (Brazil). When this failed, he imposed punitive tariffs, which the courts deemed beyond his authority. It likely will be decided by the Supreme Court.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War: Russia’s Deadly Drone Attacks

by Dave

Russia made drone, courtesy of Zala Aero Group.

Summary first: War does not take a holiday. The war is not going well for Ukraine. Drones can attack anywhere in Ukraine, and defending against night time attacks of massive swarms of Russian made drones (800 or more drones and decoys in a single attack) is next to impossible.

Details: Drones attacks are nothing new in the Ukraine war. Russia only deployed a few drones when they first attacked Ukraine. Russia thought in 2022 the invasion would be over quickly, with the seizure of Kiev. Now, the Kamikaze attack drones are being mass produced by Russia and others imported from Iran, in a new campaign to sow fear of survival into the Ukrainian populace.

The strikes against Ukraine reached a record of over 800 strikes in a single day in September. It is clear that after May, 2025, the massive record-breaking swarms of drones became the new strategy. The orange bars are missile attacks, and records were set March and April. Missiles have a large payload, and are the weapon of choice for destroying large targets such as military or infrastructure installations such as oil refineries.

The above image comes from the Al Jazeera website. See link: Drone and missile attacks. Above the image are the various “peace talks” which show as the US and Russia talked peace, Russia continued to intensify the war.

The graph really highlights a shift from mid-May until now. Russia is advancing on the ground and in the air. It is no longer dependent on Iran to supply “Shaheb” style drones. It has built its own plants, and it mass producing both high speed drones and decoys. See links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones

Russia continues to depend on North Korea, to send troops to Ukraine. See link:

The Second North Korean Wave in Ukraine: What Next as Pyongyang’s Troops Arrive on Russia’s Front Lines?

On July 6, 2025, there was a key meeting between Russian and North Korean leaders. A few days prior, North Korea pledge to send 25,000 to 30,000 troops to the front-lines of combat in Ukraine.

With drones and mercenary forces, Putin can escalate the war, cause more destruction to Ukraine, and avoid increasing casualties to the Russian forces. The Modern War Institute estimates nearly one million Russians have been injured, killed or captured, so far in the war.

I believe many Russians are growing weary of this war. It doesn’t seem to help.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Even Trump’s supporters are not that stupid!

by Dave

Donald Trump did not like the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on unemployment, so he fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. Dr. Erika McEntarfer. Prominent conservative economists, including Dr. Michael Strain, from the American Enterprise Institute, pushed back. “President Trump is completely wrong in asserting there’s been any sort of anti-Trump bias in the labor market data. I think that assertion is wholly unsupported.”

Link: Wikipedia, Dr. Erika McEntarfer

Link, New York Times, Trump, Claiming Weak Jobs Numbers Were ‘Rigged,’ Fires Labor Official

If the data were “rigged” as Donald Trump claims, Dr. Michael Strain would know. He is currently the Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. The experts in labor statistics concur that there was no scandal. The Bureau has 2100 employees, and I am certain conservative news outlets are eager to find one employee who can back up Donald Trump’s claims of rigged statistics.

Trump claimed without evidence that the commissioner “faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory.” (I believe this is a social media post).

Nobody is faking numbers,” former Labor Department chief of staff Daniel Koh wrote on X. “Revisions happen all the time.” Trump has previously praised the BLS reports, when they were favorable to his administration in April, May and June. (See NBC News link at the end of this post).

In fact, the only the Secretary of Labor, Lori Chavez-Deremer thought it was a good idea to shoot the messenger of bad news. She didn’t say the numbers were rigged, as Trump did, because that is a criminal accusation.

Labor statistics require a team of highly trained professionals. The Bureau is very open on its data collection procedures and deadlines. In industry, when financial results fall far below expectations, the most common trick is to slide the reporting date. BLS can’t do this, their deadlines for the various reports are set in January of each year. The data collection transparency and fixed deadlines are excellent measures to keep the reporting honest.

Dr. Erika McEntarfer was confirmed by the Senate in January 2023 by a vote of 86 to 8. Conservative media (MAGA) outlets will point out she was nominated by Biden. That’s about the worse they can say about Dr. McEntarfer. She served in government for 20 years under both Republican and Democratic administrations. JD Vance voted in favor of her as Commissioner. He was a Senator at the time of the vote.

The BLS had to cut back on the number of surveys they could conduct, because of Trump’s layoffs and employees who accepted severance packages. As a result, BLS is less able to do their job.

Trump is not draining the swamp, he’s adding to it. He is getting rid of honest directors and commissioners and adding MAGA loyalists, who will tow the party line that tariffs are great and our economy is wonderful.

“The politicization of economic data and potential interference with it by political appointees is something that’s typically seen in nondemocratic countries like Russia, Venezuela or China.” (NBC News, see link at the end of this post). Not the US.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia, Michael Strain

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Current Employment Statistics – National: Data sources (From Handbook of Methods)

NBC News: Trump fires labor statistics boss hours after the release of weak jobs report

Quotes from NBC news: “In May, the White House said that April’s jobs report “proved” that Trump was “revitalizing” the economy. In June, Trump posted, “GREAT JOBS NUMBERS” on Truth Social.

Wikipedia: Secretary of Labor, Lori Chavez-Deremer

Secretary Lori Chavez-Deremer was approved 67-32 on March 28, 2025. Seems her only government experience is 2 years in the House of Representatives. Previous to this, she was the mayor of Happy Valley, Oregon.

Bolsonaro Saga Continues

by Dave

Tariffs on imports result in reciprocal tariffs. So, if Friday, August 1, the 50% tariffs go into effect, it is a lose-lose situation.

The trial will go forward. The Supreme Court in Brazil can act similarly to a trial court in the US, setting rules on what the accused can do outside of the courtroom. Bolsonaro protested his arrest on social media, in violation of a court order. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the trial, could have arrested Bolsonaro, but declined stating it was an isolated violation. He stated that Bolsonaro may participate in interviews with the news media.

In the trial, prosecutors believe there is sufficient evidence to support a radical plan to bring Bolsonaro back into power, through a declaration of a national emergency as a result of the attack on the Capital. Military leaders who supported Bolsonaro would then step in, forcing Lula out of office.

The charges against Bolsonaro are for actions he took while out of office, so he can not claim presidential immunity as Trump did.

This is a very dynamic situation. The easiest way to cool things off is for Trump to push back the deadline. Lula can not drop the charges, but perhaps there are means to make the judicial process and evidence presented as transparent as possible.

But, Trump can dial up the heat, because Brazil buys petroleum products from Russia. As part of new sanctions against Russia, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against countries that buy Russian oil, and Brazil certainly could be included in this group, which includes China and India.

I have not read anything that indicates Trump’s likely next move, although my thinking is that he will try to cool off the situation. He may not like it, but he is the TACO president (Trump always chickens out).

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link: Brazil’s Supreme Court declines to arrest Bolsonaro over social media ban