Progressives v. Democratic Socialists of America

by Dave

This seems to be a favorite topic among Republicans. I don’t post much about into political philosophies. I generally vote for Democrats, but I can be persuaded to vote for a Republican. I like many Republicans. If they support aiding Ukraine, so Putin can not take over the country, I would vote for a Republican. So, I am a moderate liberal, I guess.

I want real progress made on climate change and alternative energy. I hate trade tariffs. I like international cooperation, not disrupting existing relationships among our friends. Conceptually, I like “problem solving” and bipartisan efforts- this seems the opposite of what our current administration has done. I like the term “Progressive” and dislike the term Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). I like much of what the DSA supports, but one statement I find objectionable from the DSA:

“Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to exploit the rest of us for their own profit. We must replace it with democratic socialism, a system where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces, neighborhoods, and society.”

So, capitalism is bad, and democratic socialism is the answer. Actually, I would argue that “ordinary people” do have a real voice today, not is fighting against capitalism, but regulating its excesses. The latest one is huge data centers, promoted by huge corporations, which local communities around the country have stopped.

Wikipedia has a more unbiased definition of capitalism:

“Capitalism is an economic system where private individuals or businesses own the means of production (e.g., factories, land, and machinery). Resources and prices are primarily guided by market forces like supply and demand rather than central government planning. The primary driver of this system is the generation of profit.”

Capitalism, as stated above, actually sounds pretty good. But, we have seen what the happens when government regulation is lacking. The 2008 housing crash was primarily the result of relaxing rules governing financial centers loaning practices.

We celebrate entrepreneurship, where people find new products or services. Just 28 years ago, Larry Page and Sergey Brin started Google, which I use daily. Is it wrong that they are a couple of the richest people in the world? The concept of communism was to eliminate the extreme inequality of wealth that evolves with capitalism. It is obvious that this didn’t succeed, as Putin is extremely wealthy. So are leaders of other communist countries.

So, we can’t be complaining that capitalism is bad, and at the same time, enjoying the amazing advances that real entrepreneurs have developed. But, capitalism breeds cronyism and graft, and is very destructive to both capitalism and democracy. It is at the core of dictators or tyrants throughout the world, that the path to success is not through investing in your company, but political contributions.

This is where the Republican party has stood by silent, while the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was systematically destroyed. CFPB protect consumers from businesses that violate the law. . They protect borrowers, who might not read every word in a loan agreement, but who were lied to, as a matter of policy. The Trump administration had lawsuits that had already been won, dropped, because it was “bad for business.”

Sen. Warren says Trump’s CFPB overhaul has cost Americans $26.5 billion

Crooks have a friend in the White House, and the more support they give to Trump, the more likely they will be pardoned. Tax cheats take a real long time to uncover, particularly rich ones.

President Trump’s Pardons: An Embarrassment of Riches

With a stroke of a pen, a president is able to raise millions for his political party. Case in point, from the above article:

“Trump pardoned Paul Walczak (who evaded millions of dollars in taxes) after Walczak’s mother raised millions of dollars for MAGA candidates and paid a million dollars to dine with the president at Mar-a-Lago. Trevor Milton—the securities fraudster mentioned above—donated $1.8 million to Trump’s campaign before a presidential pardon wiped out all $660 million of his restitution obligations. (That is, if nothing else, an impressive ROI.)”

So, this kind of graft happens in many other countries. But, it is not good for business, as it puts honest business people at a disadvantage. It is how Venezuela and many other countries sold out their democratic principles for political contributions.

Trump even went as far as to pardon the criminals who invaded the US Capital on Jan 6, 2021. They were wearing MAGA caps and defended their action, repeating the claim that the elections were rigged. It was a clear signal to the business community, that support for Trump, gave them a certain “get out of jail free” card.

So, I am not terribly concerned with Democratic Socialists, as they would lead the charge against government corruption. Capitalism is here to stay. It needs to coincide with good government. Capitalism prime driver will always be profits. Government’s prime driver is to improve the lives of its people. It is when these two objectives clash, government must align with the the needs of the country, and not wealthy interests.

If this makes me a liberal, so be it. I am a liberal capitalist, who pays his taxes and looks for government to return to doing good things for all Americans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Zelensky and Ukraine’s military generals

by Dave

The New York Times provided more insight on Wednesday’s dismissal of the popular Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, by President Zelensky. He was only 35 years old, and known to be “drone-centric” although it’s a bit more complicated than this.

“Col. Pavlo Yelizarov, a deputy commander of the air force, submitted his resignation in protest of Mr. Fedorov’s dismissal. “I believe the removal of Fedorov is a great blow to the country’s defense,” he wrote in a social media post.”

Ukraine has continues to run short of sufficient funds to fund its military on the ground, and the drone based attacks on Russia. And Fedorov pushed too hard for the later.

The Defense Minister Fedorov has, of course, a very different perspective and held a news conference to attack the decision leading to his dismissal. He fought against corruption in procurement of weapons and tried to minimize troop losses through drone technology. Fedorov accused General Syrskyi of thwarted the careers of promising junior commanders. So, a real split had developed.

Fedorov said the decision-making with Ukraine is all wrong. It was a very broad accusation. Certainly, the Generals would respond that experience is an important aspect in military strategy.

“Decisions about who should be supported and who should not, who should be reinforced and who should not, are not based on data,” he said. “They are based on loyalty” to the senior commanders.

The New York Times cited another reason for dismissing Fedorov, namely his popularity in Ukraine and ambition, made him potential threat to Zelensky’s presidency:

“Mr. Zelensky’s dismissal of Mr. Fedorov, 35, sidelined a potential political rival who had seized the spotlight.”

General Syrskyi at age 60, does not have the same ambitions.

Stay tuned,

Dave’

The New York Times article is by subscription only.

Ukraine Defense Leadership Lacking?

by Dave

There can be only one defense minister in Ukraine, that can direct the defense of their country. Many are disappointed at Zelensky’s dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov due to his bad relations with General Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Fedorov wanted General Syrskyi removed, but instead it is Fedorov who is out. And, Ukraine is without a Defense Minister. Of course, Putin know this and I am certain, will try to take full advantage of this dismissal.

Per Reuters:

Fedorov, a totemic figure for Ukrainians who see the use of technology as key to winning the war, has overseen a ramp-up in production of middle-range and deep strike drones and ​smoothed out defence procurement.
His tenure coincided with a visible improvement in Ukraine’s battlefield position after years on the back foot, as well as a spectacular campaign of drone strikes that have battered oil infrastructure and military targets deep ‌inside Russia.

I agree, The manufacturing of drones by Ukraine was an enormous step forward. The drone strikes have been highly successful. But Ukraine has to also win back territory and it needs replenish its troops. So, classic warfare verses electronic one – that’s the issue!

Ousted defence minister lays bare rift at heart of Ukraine’s war effort

Federov recent tirade against General Syrski certainly didn’t help bring unity. Zelensky can’t afford to choose sides. Rather he has to find ways to bring the sides together. This means continuing punishing strikes deep inside Russia and seizing Russian territory when possible, knowing that offensive measures are more productive than defensive ones. But the recapture of seized territory is still a top priority and it takes more boots on the ground.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump at NATO: What a Mess!

by Dave

Trump and Putin are self-centered and arrogant SOB’s.

Putin wants Ukraine because it used to belong to Russia, and Putin thought it was easy to regain control over the country. But Ukrainians haven’t exactly rolled over. They are building sophisticated drones and launched long range retaliatory strikes into Russia. Putin is now sending guided missiles straight into residential apartments in Kyiv. They were gaining nothing in terms of land on the battlefield, so now its just how many Ukrainians they can kill, and exhaust Ukraine’s supply of defensive weapons.

Trump immediately became very arrogant to our European partners as soon as he got to the NATO summit. His claim that Greenland was once ours, is absurd. tt belongs to Denmark. In his first term, Trump wanted to buy Greenland, and Denmark immediately rejected his offer. Now he wants to annex it, which is a polite way of saying that he wants to invade the country.

We have a military base in Greenland. It’s called the “Pituffik Space Base.” Under an agreement signed in 1951, we have exclusive control over the base. Remember that in his first term, Trump created the “Space Force” so the base was renamed. Minor changes were made to the 1951 agreement in 2004, to require that the Greenlandic flag also be flown over the base and gave the Greenlandic government the right to appoint a liaison officer for the base.

The base is part of the NORAD early warning system. It is our most northern base and obviously positioned to detect attacks from Russia or any other hostile nation, who would send missiles over the polar cap. So, we should be grateful to Denmark, for living up to their agreement with the US, and certainly not claiming the country is ours, as Trump just did.

According to Russia, Putin and Trump talked for 90 minutes just before the summit. It’s likely Putin explained to Trump their need to “annex” Ukraine, because it is a very hostile nation, and they need countries on their borders to act as buffers. Of course, this is outrageous. If you send a few thousand missiles into the capital of your neighbor, headed for hospitals, apartments, schools, etc, you create hostilities that didn’t exist before February 2022.

So, I feel Putin’s ploy is to tell Trump, we are just taking back what was always ours and you can do the same on your side of the Atlantic. Problem is, Greenland has never been part of the US. And, he is not threatening Greenland, but attacking a basic principle of NATO, of common military defense of all its partners. Trump never lets reality get in the way of his plans.

There is another pre-text Trump gives for an invasion of Greenland, and that’s to save this poor country. See link below from the Summit, “Denmark doesn’t spend money to really help Greenland, but it’s an important part for the United States, and it’s surrounded by China ships and Russian ships,” he [Trump] argued.

That’s exactly the same BS from Putin, as he is helping protect his neighbors, like Chechnya and Belarus. Actually, Putin is providing military support to these oppressive dictatorships to keep them in power. Everything will be so great for Ukraine, if they just bow to Putin.

The cease-fire and peace talks with Iran, just fell apart at a time when Ukraine desperately needs Patriot missiles to shoot down missiles aimed at Kyiv. Oil prices likely will shoot up again and the Strait of Hormuz demining will end.

Putin must be pleased at Trump’s performance at the NATO Summit. He will absolutely be benefiting to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil and the higher prices. And he’ll be sending in more orders for Iranian drones to attack Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Greenland

Trump says ceasefire ‘over’ after US and Iran trade strikes

Trump Says Greenland ‘Should Be Controlled by the U.S.’ as He Criticizes NATO Alliance at Summit

Russia’s retaliation strikes

by Dave

Ukraine attacked a major oil refinery and railway stations deep into Russian territory. The offensive strategy is working. Russia has a shortage of gas and there are long lines at gas stations. It is part of a 40-day offense strategy announced by Zelensky. The targets are no longer strictly military facilities, as attacks on oil refineries affect the entire countries. But, Zelensky has rightly said, these attacks are in retaliation to Russia’s attempt to control Ukraine by force.

Russia’s retaliated and focused on inflicting high civilian casualties, to punish Ukraine. A major apartment building was totally destroyed.

‘The crisis is deep’: The view from Russia as fuel shortages worsen

Russia’s latest attack on Kyiv was exceptionally deadly – here is why

CNN states the latest attacks are the third most deadly attacks since the war began.  Per the CNN article, Russia used ballistic missiles, loitering munitions and jet-powered drones to destroy a residential apartment complex.

Russia used a deadly combination of weapons, designed to accurately hit targets and penetrate defenses. Ukraine stated that the jet powered Geran 4 is difficult to shoot down and in depleting their inventory of defensive weapons. Of particular concern is a shortage of Patriot missiles.

It is an excellent question of whose side is Trump on, because there is no condemnation of Russia’s targeted attacks on civilian populations in Kyiv. Instead of joining with our European allies, Trump appears to be very friendly to Putin.

Hegseth lashes out at NATO allies and announces a review of U.S. forces in Europe

Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegseth speech could only be described as a “Pro-Putin” speech. Very unfortunate at a time when Ukraine needs total US support.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine’s Offensive War

by Dave

Offense attacks can be the best defense.

Ukraine is succeeding on many fronts. Belarus agreed to shut down the relay stations which have been helping Russia guide their drones. See link:

Belarus halts Russian drone relay stations after Ukraine ultimatum

This means Ukraine has some political leverage over Belarus. At least for now. Lukashenko is setting some boundaries on what it will provide to Putin’s war.

Ukraine is making the war more costly for Russia with drone attacks to the south, in Crimea. Russia is claiming to have shot down many of the drones.

Ukraine unleashes one of its heaviest drone bombardments of Russia

There is no question to Ukraine’s strategy, which is to put Russia on the defensive. Pretty much what is done is asymmetrical warfare, to manufacture your own drones, then find the targets which will do the most economic harm like oil storage facilities and refineries.

It is a case of the “Mouse that roared” or “David and Goliath.” Ukraine is getting strong support from its European allies, but the US should be doing much more. It is in our national interest to stop Putin’s use of his military in a brazen land grab. It is not a border dispute between two countries, but a Russian invasion into Ukraine.

How to end the war, is not complicated. Russia needs to withdraw its troops from Ukraine. With Russia out of Ukraine, Ukraine would cease their attacks.

Zelensky is right. To bring Russia to the negotiating table, they must feel the pain, they have inflicted on Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The roads to peace – Iran and Ukraine

by Dave

Iran Road to Peace:

Trump’s attack on Iran was a failure. What Iran is demanding is the unfreezing of Iranian assets (24 billion dollars) for a demined Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated they have no intentions of developing a nuclear weapon. They said that when Obama was president eleven years ago. So, it is no concession as a result of the war.

Obama’s plan (JCPOA) would have worked, inspections of enrichment of uranium in return for the lifting of sanctions. Trump has to lift sanctions if he wants ships to be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and bring down the price of oil worldwide. It is not our oil that passes through the Strait, but oil prices depend on the global supply and demand.

Whether the MOU is a prelude to peace or war, is hard to say. It left more issues on table than off. I like to call it a 60 day cease fire agreement. Already, Trump is setting up JD Vance to take the blame for Iran negotiations failure. Trump is seeing this as a transactional deal, we pay you and get what in return? A demined strait and promises to limit enrichment? Likely much less than Obama negotiated 11 years ago.

Ironically, it was not a war that JD Vance supported. JD Vance will have little to show for agreeing to unfreeze assets, except the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be open.

‘If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD’: Vance’s risky gambit on Iran peace efforts

Ukraine Road to Peace:

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a failure. The latest attack on Moscow showed this. What Russia needs to do now, is withdraw it’s troops from Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s demand. The US should be 100% behind Ukraine. Instead, at every opportunity, we talk of reducing military support for NATO and our allies. Ultimately, Ukraine must become part of NATO, which is a mutual defense organizations for democratic European countries

It is a humiliating defeat for Putin. He doesn’t have a convenient JD Vance to blame.

Neither road is easy. Trump’s tearing up of the negotiated JCPOA and bombing Iran has been counterproductive to any objective he has stated.

Putin by himself, will not make peace with Ukraine. It must be the others in power that force him to withdraw the troops.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine’s retaliatory strike on Russia

by Dave

“We do not want this war and never have – everyone knows this, and our partners know this,” he told reporters. “But if Ukraine is engulfed in flames, so will your Moscow be. That is why we emphasize once again that it is time to end the aggression; it is time to end this war.”

Their attack was very successful as CNN reported:

Ukraine launches largest attack on Moscow since start of full-scale war

It was good timing, as reported by CNN, “On Thursday, at a gathering of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he and Zelensky had discussed the war during a meeting a day earlier.”

US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, could have easily backed statements by Zelensky, by saying we would support Ukraine and that Russia’s invasion had failed miserably. Instead, he talked about reducing support for NATO, following Trump’s isolationist policies. See above link.

Dave

The 60-day Ceasefire begins June 19

by Dave

The text of the MOU will not be released until after it is signed in Geneva on June 19. From news reports, the deal leaves a lot on the table. JD Vance described it as a “very general document.”

Already, different versions are circulating, so it is difficult to know what was resolved.

Trump: The Strait will be opened immediately and permanently Iran: The process of opening the Strait (demining) will be concurrent with negotiations.

Demining operations will begin and the intent is to allow free passage of vessels in the Strait. The Iranian version of the MOU according to their news service Fars, is:

Iran plans to impose fees after that period (60 days), with Fars saying Iran “intends to benefit financially from commercial shipping traffic through the Strait.”

Per Reuters:

“U.S. and Iranian officials say the deal could eventually deliver substantial economic benefits to Iran by lifting sanctions and unfreezing foreign assets. It could also set ​up a $300 billion reconstruction fund, paid for by neighbouring Gulf states that host U.S. military bases and were hit by Iranian attacks during the war.”

The frozen assets has been reported by Iran as 24 billion dollars.

See other details in this link:

US-Iran deal promises end to war but how it will work remains unclear

“Iranian officials, who have always denied intending to build a nuclear weapon, say they have given up little by agreeing to resume diplomatic discussions over Iran’s uranium enrichment programme that were interrupted by the war.”

Prelude to war or peace? We’ll know more on Friday.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The Staged Approach to US-Iran Negotiations

by Dave

Both Iran and the US want a 60-day cease-fire. That’s the easy one. It’s best to call it a cease-fire agreement or an interim agreement or a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). What appears to be close to done is a very fragile deal. MOU’s are frequently signed by countries to help diplomats bridge differences.

The deal can be a prelude to peace or war. If it is the latter, it will be a highly destructive war with Iran attacking US bases in the region.

I believe at its core, it will be promises of money to Iran (unfreezing of assets) in exchange for passage of ships through the the Strait. Iran is demanding the unfreezing of 24 billion dollars. Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait, but allow the passage of ships. In this way, Iran can declare victory, because this will be a major concession.

It is an agreement which will clarify points of disagreement to be hammered out during the 60 day period. What is still on the table might be more than what the agreement has taken off the table. So, I expect disappointment, rather than relief when the MOU is released.

Iran will promise not to fund terrorist groups. That’s an easy one. They fund Hezbollah, and do not consider it a terrorist group. Iran will promise not to use its uranium to make a nuclear weapon. They’ve agreed to this since the JCPOA. So, the MOU will list points Iran agreed to that have nothing to do with this conflict.

US will agree to end its blockade of Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf. It will not withdraw its 3 to 4 warships in the area, but leave this to further negotiations. Israel will not like the agreement because I believe the language related to reducing their uranium stockpile will not sufficiently specific. Just a lot of good intentions with the details to be worked out later.

In sum, I believe the ability to safely transit the Strait, will be linked to the unfreezing of assets. Bloomberg correctly identifies this as a staged approach, with the 60 day window to work on a more permanent agreement.

No question we are at the crossroads with the outcome depending on how each side judges the outcome of continued war verses compromises to peace.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Why is oil so cheap?

by Dave

Cheap? What are you talking about? Benchmark Brent Futures Contracts currently is $95.6/bbl. Average US gas price is $4.16. But, experts in this area expected prices to be much higher. They, as a whole, overestimated the affect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz based on supply-demand dynamics. (bbl = barrel, 42 gallons).

Forecasters were looking for the Brent crude to exceed $120/bbl if passage through the Strait continued to be blocked. Gas prices were supposed to be at least a dollar higher. They may ultimately be right, just off on the timing.

Total demand for oil worldwide is estimated to be 105 million bbl/day and about 20 million bbl/day was coming through the Strait of Hormuz, pre-war. This is a huge drop in supply and the dire forecasts really did make sense.

The forecasters say that prices should be much higher IF all other means of supplying oil to the world market were to stay the same. So, the modeling flaw was China’s decision to supply oil from their inventory instead of importing it. This is a delaying action, not a fix.

Every oil exporting country is keenly aware of the action of China and is looking for new routes for their oil. Of course, importing countries are also looking to add to inventories (very difficult at these prices) and cut oil demand. I like the comment by UAE’s energy minister, Sultan al-Jaber:

“Energy security is no longer just about your ability to continue to produce. “It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy.”

This is really the key strategy for oil exporters, in the short term, to get their crude to the worldwide market.

See link below:

Post-War Oil Trade Could Look Nothing Like It Did Before Hormuz

Stay tuned,

Dave

Iran and Ukraine Peace Deals

by Dave

I will start with Iran. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has played a winning card and oil prices have shot up worldwide. A deal for the US must include opening up the Strait. I believe that Iran will agree to opening the Strait as long as all other conditions of the agreement are satisfied. This of course, will not make Trump happy, as he is famous for agreeing to a deal and then breaking it, claiming the other side has not lived up to the spirit of the deal.

A lot of other more complicated issues can be worked into a deal. Iran will likely not agree to the total elimination of enriched uranium, but I think they would be willing to settle for enrichment limits along the lines of the JCPOA as negotiated by Obama in 2015. This would require inspections.

So, what could US give Iran in return? Very simply, money. This relates to frozen assets, which Iran claims the US owes them. Iran is requesting the upfront release of up to $25 billion in overseas assets frozen by U.S. sanctions. Of course, the US would like a deal where they open the Strait first, and then the payment is left for future negotiations.

It would be an enormous humiliation to Trump, to make a payment. He relentlessly campaigned that Obama’s payment of 1.3 billion dollars was ransom money. It was not. It was a debt originating before 1979 on military equipment bought by Iran for 400 million dollars and never delivered. The interest on the debt came to 900 million dollars.

The other demand of Iran is a halt to the attacks of Lebanon by Israel. Trump is seriously trying to meet Iran’s demand through discussions with Israel.

So, as I see it, it is all about Trump accepting that none of the objectives of the war have been realized, and to get the Strait open, he has to accept the unfreezing of assets. This comes with terrible political consequences for Republicans who backed the war.

Next is Ukraine. Peace will only come when the political powers surrounding Putin, force him to withdraw from Ukraine. They can withdraw to the pre-2022 borders, and agree that Crimea will be part of Russia as it has been since 2014. The idea of a “buffer zone” will not work, and just be the source of new conflicts.

Putin knows that the Russian private economy is in terrible shape absent of the thriving military-industrial complex, from the war effort. I discussed this in my previous blog. So, for the war to end in Ukraine, requires another humiliation this time for Putin. In fact, if he is forced to withdraw troops, he may be forced out at the same time. There will be no deal that includes barring Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump’s great indifference to help fund Ukraine’s survival, I would say is an additional stumbling block.

This is the way I see it. Money is the stumbling block for peace in Iran. Russian withdrawal is the stumbling block for peace in Ukraine. Trump and Putin will have to accept defeat for the wars they caused and can not win.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Zelensky’s Gambit

by Dave

President Zelensky offered a face-to-face meeting with Putin. Russia rejected this offer as meaningless. As long as Russia’s goal is total control of Ukraine, this meeting was to be for public relations only. Putin want to portray this war as defending their territory (he considers Ukraine belongs to Russia) against NATO powers. He does not want to share a stage with Zelensky.

Ukraine targets St. Petersburg again after Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer for direct talks

So, by suggesting a face-to-face meeting and having Putin reject it, Zelensky can come off as the “peacemaker.”

Ukraine is proving that it can successfully attack deep inside Russia. St. Petersburg is Putin’s hometown, and he is likely furious at Ukraine’s attack. Russian military strategists are likely now looking at a much larger circle of vulnerability in their country. perhaps 1000 km from their eastern border. . The simple strategy of depleting Ukraine’s defenses is now not so easy. If Russia puts all efforts into offense and taking more territory, Ukraine will strike behind the front lines and target everything that supplies the war effort. .

It is essential to understand what Putin seeks to gain from the war as the gains on the battlefield are nominal and supply chains are strained. Economic advisors to Putin are likely busy calculating the trade offs of war verses peace for Russia, and may be advising Putin of dire economic consequences of peace. Very perverse thinking, as peace means Russians not dying on the front lines in Ukraine. But nevertheless, a reality.

The article below, really brings home the point of the peace being an undesirable for the Russian economy, now geared to supplying the needs of military. The term “military-industrial complex” was coined after World War II, but is very applicable to Russia today.

“On one side sits a state-subsidized, demand-guaranteed military-industrial complex, expanding at a pace that would be the envy of any peacetime planner. On the other hand, a civilian economy is slowly hollowing out, starved of labor, capital, and credit.”

and then concludes:

“The military-industrial complex is not simply growing alongside the civilian economy, but is crowding it out.”

Russia’s Economy: Bent Out of Shape

So, if peace broke out with a Russian withdrawal and security needs assured by Western powers, Ukraine’s economy would soar and Russia’s economy would plummet. Ukraine could finally join NATO. And Putin’s reign would be in jeopardy.

A continued war offers little to Putin, if Ukraine can continue getting funding from the West. But peace via a withdrawal of troops brings the risk of economic collapse and enormous humiliation.

So, Zelensky had to make a political gesture, that he wants peace. The best strategy for the US is a total commitment to Ukraine, but Trump is getting more entrenched in the idea of being the peace broker, which has failed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War – Unforeseen Consequences

by Dave

February 24, 2022 marks the date, Russian troops rolled into Ukraine from Belarus. Given the military might of Russia, many experts were saying Ukraine didn’t stand a chance. So Putin thought this would be a short war. He was terribly wrong.

Putin claimed Ukraine belonged to Russia. Also, he argued that Ukraine was a threat to Russia. He used the actions of separatists in Dunbas region to argue that Russians were mistreated in Ukraine. Of course, Russia supported the separatists.

One of the unforeseen consequences of the invasion, at least from Putin’s perspective, is increase support of Ukraine from European countries. Putin sees NATO as a threat. As long as Ukraine is under attack, it will not be able to join NATO. Sweden joined NATO in 2024 and Finland in 2023. Ukraine made formal application to join NATO in September 2022. Their application will not be approved (formal accession) until the fighting ends.

To end the war, NATO must continue to expand and allow more Eastern European countries to join. Two countries in particular: Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Slowly, the message will sink in that Russia does not respect the sovereignty of its former republics.

Putin likely miscalculated the extent of support that Ukraine would receive. Ukraine needs the support of its European allies and the United States. The defeat of Prime Minister Orban of Hungary in April was critical for continued support of the European Union. Per Wikpedia “On 23 April 2026, the EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. On 24 April 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Ukraine cannot join the EU while at war, contrary to President Zelensky’s goal of EU membership by 2027.”

Trump famously stated that in this conflict, “Russia holds all the cards.” It seemed for a while, that Russia slowly was winning, in terms of increased occupied territory along the western border, Ukraine would have to settle for losing part of its country as the price of peace. Russia seemed to have an endless supply of drones and missiles, which would overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.

Finally, Ukraine has been changing its battlefield strategy, to go on the offensive. The article from the Atlantic Council suggests that SpaceX denial of illicit use of the Starlink communication system has seriously disrupted Russian communications. The Russians have taken countermeasures, now using Sprint-030 satellite terminals on the frontlines.

Ukrainian battlefield gains expose Russia’s communications problems

I am certain that since 2022, Putin never envisioned the Ukrainian attack on Russia. The Russian strategy is to continue to advance the eastern flank, with the objective of taking Kyiv and Kherson. Now they have to be concerned with defending their oil terminals, pipelines and military bases. Factories that produce military equipment are also targets.

Ukrainian drone attack triggers fire at a Russian oil terminal

Putin miscalculated Ukraine’s ability to develop and produce drones with a long-range capacity, to attack deep within Russian territory. Ukraine was not a threat to Russia in 2022, at the onset of the invasion, but it is today.

From AI to interceptors, Ukraine is trying to drone-proof its skies

From PBS:

“Ukraine’s long-range drone program features domestically produced, jet-powered, and fixed-wing kamikaze UAVs capable of striking targets up to 1,600 km away. These systems—such as the Fire Point FP-1, Beaver, and RS-1 Bars—straddle the line between cruise missiles and drones, crippling Russian energy infrastructure and military sites.”

Trade sanctions on Russian oil were in place, but Trump has temporarily lifted these sanctions:

“The Trump administration has temporarily eased select sanctions on Russian oil shipments, issuing General Licenses through the Treasury Department to allow the sale and delivery of crude oil already loaded on vessels.This waiver was implemented to mitigate global energy shortages and lower gas prices caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran. Despite initially stating the temporary exemptions would not be extended, the Treasury Department reversed course to renew the pause on select oil tanker sanctions.”

Council of Foreign Relations

As long as Russia is convinced that it can ultimately prevail, no serious negotiations leading to peace will occur.

In sum, Russia’s attempt to control Ukraine through military force is failing, both from a political and military point of view. Russia is benefiting from the Iran war through high oil prices and the lifting of sanctions. The US must do more to force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. It will take time.

Stay tuned,

Dave

How to make peace

by Dave

Just like a chemical reaction, peace negotiations are possible if certain elements are present. The first is there must be the realization on both sides, that what led to war will not be achieved, or not achieved without enormous cost and harm. This is what lead to the US to start negotiations with Vietnam, on ending the war.

On both sides of a conflict, there is a tremendous political risk in engaging in peace talks, as it will be perceived as a cowardly way to end a conflict. Therefore, secrecy and backdoor negotiations are incredibly important. Diplomats around the world, know this. In looking for solutions, you respect the offers from the other side. We seem to give respect to Russia, as they propose “Peace Plans” to end the war in Ukraine. We don’t do the same for Iran.

It is clear, that in resolving conflicts, negotiators look for possible actions or promises that might appeal to their adversaries. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a negotiation to avoid war, and unfortunately the concessions made to Iran were used very unfairly to cast Democrats as weak negotiators. A concession was made to pay Iran, 440 million dollars owed on military equipment they bought prior to 1979 but was never delivered. This grew to 1.2 billion dollars after interest for more than 25 years. This concession for peace doesn’t look too much, today.

Negotiations require diplomatic expertise and patience. This is where the team of Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and JD Vance are terribly deficient. Jared Kushner stated at a conference:

“Peace is not that different from business,” Kushner told the audience. “Both things are puzzles.”

But Kushner is conflicted as his business interests are heavily based on Affinity fund, with huge investments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar in particular, did not support the US-Israel attack on Iran.

Business deals fail all the time, and all that is lost is money and opportunity. The long term consequences of the failed Iran peace negotiations are much larger. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in shortages of oil and fertilizer worldwide. As the threats against Iran increase from Trump, more hardline leaders in Iran prevail and frustrate negotiations through more extreme demands.

Deals are made when negotiators understand the tipping points of their adversaries to make peace more acceptable than war. Having a cease-fire in place that lasts is helpful, as negotiations are terribly difficult when the battlefield is constantly changing.

I believe the current conflict in Iran can be solved without resuming the US attack on Iran. I believe there is a path to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. It is going to involve the US returning to some of the core aspects of the Iran nuclear deal, including payments of billions of dollars in “debt payments” and allowing Iran to refine some uranium for peaceful purposes. The roadblock to lasting peace is Trump and MAGA politics. We have not hit the tipping point for the US to enter in serious negotiations. Both Russia and China are winners in the conflict, supplying Iran with military weapons.

The negotiations for peace in Ukraine failed because the necessary elements were lacking. Putin ultimately wants control of Ukraine. He argues that Russia needs a “buffer zone” to protect it from Ukraine. The buffer zone will be Russia’s staging ground for a military take-over of Kyiv. Russia invaded Ukraine, and the only road to peace, is a Russian withdrawal. For that to happen, the US must support Ukraine, with all the weapons it needs to defend itself. The war must be won on the battlefield.

Stay tuned,

Dave

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