Month: July 2020

Upcoming Election

by Dave

An incumbent president, usually runs on his achievements during the prior  three plus years.  But, much of what Donald Trump has claimed to have accomplished is not true.  From environmental issues, energy,  the economy and immigration, Trump has claimed credit for accomplishments during the Obama administration.  Trump also falsely portrayed much of his own administration’s efforts as successes, when in fact they were not.

The 20,000 lies that Trump has told over the last 3 1/2 years are quite incredible.  His version of a stupendous economic recovery in 2018-2019 is total nonsense.   The economy was not in collapse at the end of Obama’s term.  It definitely had crashed during George Bush’s last year, losing 800,000 jobs a month and it was President Obama had turned it around, adding about 200,000 jobs a month.  In fact, when Trump cites statistics on how well his administration has done, he typically goes back in time, to the date of his election (November 8, 2016) and not his inauguration date in 2017  just to steal some credit from President Obama.

In the upcoming blogs,  I intend to examine more closely the “three E’s”  – the environment, energy and the economy, plus I intend to  address immigration policy and the “build the wall” craze (it should be called enhance the “see-through fence” initiative).   Trump could brag all he wanted as a real estate developer.  Now he is getting caught every single day, in multiple lies.

Immigration policy is a real pile of crazy sh*t,  Sorry, I just didn’t know how to express this any better.  For months Trump kept bragging how great his policies were,  because apprehensions at the southern border were going down, 40%,  then 61% and finally 78%.   So, immigrants were not trying to sneak into our country, because they were afraid of being caught.  Of course, apprehensions started to rise,  and Trump again bragged that his policies were a tremendous success because they were going up.   Down is great, up is great, who cares, it’s all in the presentation?    In January 2020, the President celebrates great numbers on immigration again, this time apprehensions again were going down.   So, down, up and down again, all with dubious statistics, and all causes to celebrate the tremendous success.

I believe it is necessary to dispel the barrage of  false claims in order to establish the truth.   There is an enormous distribution system of false information.  Energy, environment and the economy issues are all intertwined.    The  “fake news” is often slick presentations, with selected facts helped along by industry lobbyist  groups.  Just one small example –  I saw on a cable news program, a clip showing barges filled with coal going down the Mississippi river,  and the newscaster was talking about how US coal exports had doubled since 2016, which is true.  Yet, in about 2 minutes, I could verify that US coal production had continued it’s steady decline during the Trump administration.  This rise in exports was simply that more coal was being sent overseas,  because the demand was dropping in the US.    Major coal companies filed for bankruptcy in 2019 and 2020, including Cloud Peak Energy and  Murray Coal.

So, I am preparing my first blog on the environment and more will follow.  I am always receptive to comments from my visitors, contrary to my opinions.  As usual, I will support my statements with links from the internet.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Your mail-in vote will be counted

by Dave

“Mail-In Ballots will lead to massive electoral fraud and a rigged 2020 Election. Look at all of the cases and examples that are out there right now, with the Patterson, N.J., being the most recent example. Republicans, in particular, cannot let this happen!”

Donald Trump July 2, 2020 (repeated  26 times)

Washington Post labels this as False.  See links below.

All properly submitted mail-in votes will be counted.  Studies have shown that intentional fraud in voting is very rare, whether it is done by mail-in votes or in-person votes.   Russia did everything they could to influence our 2016 election.  Printing fraudulent ballots is not one of them.  At least, Attorney General Barr agreed that this has not happened in the past.   The problem is that voters have to register to vote.  When bar coded mail-in  ballots are received, they  are scanned to see if they are from approved registered voters.

In 2007, a voter in King County, Texas registered her dog to show how easily it was to fool the system.  In 2016, a voter in King County tried to do the same, but this time was caught when the information was run through state and federal databases.  Providing false information on registration is a crime.  Similarly,  it is a crime for anyone except the owner of a mail box to remove mail.  See link below.

Mail-in and in-person  ballots have been rejected in the past.  More mail-in ballots are rejected.   Three reasons for this are:  (1) Ballots arrive after the election day and  (2) Voters must sign the return envelope and will not be accepted if the signature does not match the registration form.   To avoid any problems, send in the ballot in the proper return  envelope provided at least 5 days before the election.

In a very close election,  it is likely the mail-in ballots will receive extra scrutiny, because they could make a difference in the outcome of the state’s electoral votes.

Although rare, fraud has occurred in both mail-in and in-person voting.   People who have multiple homes, have been able to vote twice, but have been caught.

In some states, there is “accidental voter fraud”   where felons who have completed their sentences and thought they were able to vote.  But, the states find after election day, that they had not completely made restitution (repaid their victims, done community service, etc) and so they accidentally broke the law.  The number of people who fall into this category are very small, and it can be for very minor crimes like writing a forged check.   Laws are not the same in all states.  The  “felony disenfranchisement”  has been challenged in the courts.  See below.

The felony disenfranchisement is a serious problem is only one aspect – it makes people who have done their time, and hopefully rejoined society,  fearful to vote. State laws vary and some are unrestricted while others require probation to be completed and   a formal petition to be approved prior to restoration of voting rights.

All mail-in ballots have to be counted.  It is the law.  They may not all be counted on election night,  but the count on election night is not the final tally of votes.   Your mail-in ballot could be the one, that CNN announces “the race in this state is too close to call.”    VOTE 2020.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

NYT The facts about mail-in voting and voting fraud

Wikipedia:  Felony disenfranchisement in the US

Washington Post: Tracking all of President Trumps Lies

(This is a free and incredibly detailed tracking system,  and is rated four Pinocchio’s their highest false rating,  All repetitions occurred from April to July 2020 and were done over Twitter.)

Also see:

Amazon:  Donald Trump and his assault on truth,  G. Kessler  and Washington Post fact checker.

 

Why the electoral college?

by Dave

OK, not a barn burning question for sure.   I’ll admit this topic came up at a dinner party, and as I responded, everyone seemed to move away from me.  It is a good topic to bring up at any dinner party where you would like guests to leave.

First,  the electoral college was part of our constitution and you can’t pass a law in Congress and change this to the popular vote.

Second, the idea was a compromise solution in the creation of our constitution.  The delegates who met at the Philadelphia Convention from May 25, 1787 to September 17, 1787 had a single purpose, to replace the original  framework  of federal government, the Articles of Confederation, with  a more lasting structure.   Prior to this time, there was only the unicameral Continental Congress and no judiciary or executive branch.   The president of the Continental Congress was largely ceremonial and there was no salary for this position.

A debate raged at the Convention in 1787 on how to elect a president.   Many suggested Congress throw in a hat, the names of three people who could be president, and they would be drawn at chance, thus allowing the hand of Providence to govern our selection  (ok, I’m joking).    One option was to have the Congress elect the president.  Obviously, this could lead to a less democratic system.   The idea of direct elections was an alternative, yet the problem at the time was the difficulty in the circulation of information.  Radio  transmission had not yet been invented.   So, the compromise idea was the electoral college where the people of each state would vote for electors and en bloc they would cast their vote for the president.

There was a super wrong assumption made by some at the Convention in forming the electoral college.  They added that if one candidate did not get the majority vote of electors,  then the House of Representatives would decide by a majority the next president.  Those who favored the House electing the president, thought this would happen frequently, because we would have multiple candidates.   In fact, in our history this has only happened three times.   There was nothing in our constitution to have a runoff election, as in many other countries.  One candidate can become president if he wins the majority of the Electoral College by just one vote.   At present, a tie is possible (269 to 269) and the House would have to decide.

The number of electoral votes are based on the state’s population.  There have been improvements made in this system, such as the 12th amendment and the recent Supreme Court decision to allow States to bind electors to the candidate they have pledged to support.  States have laws that fine electors who fail to vote for their pledged candidate.    More information can be found in Wikipedia – see links.

Now, what precisely did I say that made guests at a dinner party move away from me?  I said the Electoral College was a good thing as opposed to the popular vote.  Here’s my logic.   We are a closely divided country, Republicans and Democrats.  Small splinter parties may emerge in the future to try to prevent a candidate from gaining 270 or more votes.  Candidates tailor their election campaigns to the swing state voters, particularly if they see one candidate is on the rise.  In this way, our elections in the 7 to 10 swing states will continue to be tight.    If we have a near tie, under the Electoral College system,   which could happen in this November,  the losing party may ask for the courts intervention  in a closely decided states.    Immediately, potential recounts in states like North Carolina,  Wisconsin or Florida come to mind, with the clock ticking to inauguration day. The Supreme Court decision on December 12, 2000 in  Bush v. Gore created this precedent.  However,  It would be a hundred times worse under the popular vote to do a recount, with thousands of voting districts whose tally is called into question.

So, the 1787 compromise lives on.  You’ll never get a 2/3 majority of both houses to amend the constitution.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia:  Philadelphia Convention

Wikipedia:  Electoral College

Amending the US Constitution

 

 

 

Trump’s tax case

by Dave

The Supreme Court ruled the President may be issued a subpoena for evidence from Congressional Committees and any Prosecutor in the country.   There is no blanket immunity because Trump is president.   This assertion of absolute immunity from the issuance of subpoena was part of the claim made by Trump.   Most legal experts felt Trump would lose on this point.    Trump attacked both the Supreme Court and the New York prosecutors who issued the subpoena;

“The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue,” Trump wrote. “This is all a political prosecution. … I have to keep fighting in a politically corrupt New York. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration! … Courts in the past have given ‘broad deference’. BUT NOT ME!”

Trump went into this great conspiracy nonsense later on Fox News.   The judicial system is disgraceful when they they investigate his close associates.  Actually, the justice system is doing their job when they prosecuted Manafort, Flynn,  Stone, and Papadopolous.    Trump can rant and rave all he wants on Fox News.   What is so abundantly clear, is that when close associates of Trump don’t cooperate with prosecutors, then they are good people and don’t deserve to go to jail.   But those who rat on him, are the bad people (like Michael Cohen, Trump’s fixer) and deserve their sentences.   Even Roger Stone admitted that his sentence was commuted from 40 months in jail to zero, because he kept his mouth shut.  This stinks to high heaven.

The truth of the matter, is that our judicial system is doing just fine.   The damage done is repairable, which I hope can happen after the November elections.  The court case in practical terms, was a win for Trump, because he doesn’t have to release his taxes prior to the election.  In fact, experts say there the cases could stretch on for a long time perhaps late 2021.  The broad subpoena from Congress will have may never be executed.

The Supreme Court very rarely has to rule on subpoenas from Congress because some accommodation is worked out.  The Supreme Court in their ruling has laid down certain criteria for executing subpoenas against a president, to really protect the president and also to allow appropriate requests from Congress and prosecutors to be executed.   I believe what was particularly important to Chief Justice Roberts was that this ruling included three conservative, Republican nominated justices (Roberts, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch) along with the four liberal justices on the court.

Having the subpoena issue pushed off to next year is likely for the best.  If the Supreme Court has enforced the Congressional subpoena, I believe it would be damaging to Trump just before the election. He could blame his defeat on “political prosecution.”   Oh gee, he’s already claiming this!

It isn’t political prosecution or harassment.   It is equal application of the law for everyone.  No absolute immunity for Donald Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

I’ve copied a few opinions on the Supreme Court case.   The opinions are on the supremecourt.gov website.

NYT Opinion:  The Supreme Court Lets Trump Run Out the Clock

Politico: Supreme Court splits on Trump tax cases, potentially shielding returns until after election

Washington Post: Supreme Court says Manhattan prosecutor may pursue Trump’s financial records, denies Congress access for now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Voting Fraud

by Dave

RIGGED 2020 ELECTION: MILLIONS OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS WILL BE PRINTED BY FOREIGN COUNTRIES, AND OTHERS. IT WILL BE THE SCANDAL OF OUR TIMES!   Donald Trump’s Tweet, June 22.

The above tweet from Trump is total  nonsense.  It should be shoveled into a pooper scooper.   Twitter has flagged some of Trump’s more outrageous claims.

I and my wife are mailing in our ballots in the 2020 presidential election.  Many citizens will do the same in Florida.   We do not have to be absent from Miami to get one. It is expected that many people will use the mail in option with the Covid-19 risks.  Unfortunately, many others may not vote at all.  In 2016, 43% of eligible voters did not vote.

Voting fraud is extremely rare.  Investigations have uncovered cases, but never a systematic abuse.   The principal safeguard in election is voter registration, which gives officials opportunity to weed out any invalid voters.  See links below.  A study by the Washington Post found 0.0025% of votes were fraudulent.   So, given a million voters, we might have 25 votes that were not acceptable.  Sometimes valid votes are not accepted because people over time change their signature.

There are research groups who will, for a fee, find cases of voter fraud.  People who are guilty of committing a felony may not know that they are ineligible to vote.  This depends on the state they live in.  So, they are a handful of people committing “accidental” voter fraud, because if they had known, they would have never voted.  This is a minuscule number of voters.

Some people may still like to show up at the polling stations, because they are concerned their vote will not be counted.  There is some truth to this.  If their ballot does not show up before the deadline, the wrong return envelope is used or the signature does not match the one on record, then the ballot will be rejected.  About 1% of all mail-in ballots are rejected.    But, all properly sent in ballots have to be counted.

So, please ignore everything Donald Trump says.   Two reasons he is saying this:  (1) Higher turnout favors a Democratic win and (2) He can claim the election was rigged if he loses.

Please Vote 2020.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Analytical modeling from Moody’s showed Trump’s chances of winning were significantly higher when voter turnout is low, based on historical trends.

Click to access president-election-model.pdf

Washington Post: Minuscule number of potentially fraudulent ballots in states with universal mail voting undercuts Trump claims about election risks

Washington Post:  Here’s the problem with mail-in ballots: They might not be counted.

New York Times Arrested, Jailed and Charged With a Felony. For Voting.

New York Times: The Facts About Mail-In Voting and Voter Fraud

Fact Check:  Trump’s Latest Voter Fraud Misinformation