Brazil elections

The Political Riot in Brasilia

by Dave

January 8, 2023 riot in Brasilia, the capital of Brazil resembled January 6, 2020 in some ways, but very different in others. It was widely anticipated that there would be massive protest turning into violence on inauguration day, January 1, 2023. This did not happen. There was a lot of speculation that the military would step in prior to January 8 and Lula da Silva would not be inaugurated. In fact, the more radical supporters of Bolsonaro hoped he would void the election by calling in the military. Again, this was completely unfounded, just a lot of Facebook posting nonsense.

The idea of calling in the military to “fix” an election result, is a very good way to end a democracy. Every dictator depends on the military to control the population. Just go ask Vladimir Putin.

The general election was held on October 2, 2022. The runoff election between Bolsonaro and Lula was held on October 30, 2022, and Lula was declared the winner on October 31.For a summary of the Brazilian first general election and runoff presidential election (Oct 30, 2022) see the link below:

Link: 2022 Brazilian General Election

Bolsonaro is not Trump. This is meant as a compliment. I was relieved when Bolsonaro made a brief statement on November 1, saying that he authorized his chief of staff to begin the transition process. In essence, he was telling millions of supporters that the election was over. There is no legal requirement to concede. All he has to do is step aside, and he did this.

He said everything he does is within the mandates of the constitution. Thank God for this. Everything seem quick and final. Brazil has no write in or mail in voting. It is 100% electronic and considered by many, to be reliable. Every Brazilian has a national identity number and getting a job is difficult without it. There was no “Stop the Steal” craziness or 61 attempts to challenge the results in court. But, he refused to acknowledge that Lula had won. I thought from November 1 to January 1 (inauguration day) things would cool off.

Per Wikipedia: “On 22 November, he and his party formally contested the election result, after an audit revealed that electronic voting machines made before 2020, which comprised 59% of machines used in the 2022 election, lacked identification numbers in their internal logs. They requested that the Superior Electoral Court invalidate the votes recorded by the affected machines, which would result in Bolsonaro being elected with 51% of the remaining valid votes. However, experts claimed that the software error did not affect the election results and pointed out that the identification numbers did appear in the physical vote records printed by the machines.[313] On the next day the court rejected the request and fined the party R$22.9 million (US$4.3 million) for what it considered bad faith litigation.[314]”

Unlike the US, there is only one ultimate authority on election integrity, and that is the Superior Electoral Court headed by Alexandre de Moraes. See link below for his background

Link: Alexandre de Moraes

The Brazilian system of justice may be flawed, but at least candidates need only to petition one court with their complaints. Justice Alexandre de Moraes was astute enough to ask if the results from 59% of voting machines were to be invalidated, did this apply to the first election and the runoff? The problem for Bolsonaro’s party was that many of their candidates for Governor, Senator and Congress won in the first election, so of course they did not want to throw out these favorable results. It was immediately obvious to everyone involved that the court filing was just a publicity stunt.

False information about the voting machines spread quickly both in Brazil and the US. I received several postings on Facebook saying that in truth, Bolsonaro had won 73% of the vote. It seems the Brazilian community in Miami were very quick to hit the share icon.

See link from National Public Radio (US): Why false claims about Brazil’s election are spreading in far-right U.S. circles

It is definitely true that Steve Bannon and others in the US were trying to package and sell the “Stop the Steal” campaign stuff to far right groups in Brazil after Bolsonaro lost. But, for the most part, it isn’t packageable, at least not yet. It really takes powerhouses like Sean Hannity and Carlson Tucker on Fox News to spread misinformation to fuel the anger and frustration that comes from losing an election.

There are other enormous differences between Brazil and the US in the months after the election. While Bolsonaro’s party did file in court that the voting machines were flawed, this was quickly ruled on and dismissed. In the US, Trump was taking every possible opportunity to advance the “Stop the Steal” movement in court filings and fully endorsed the angry mob on January 6, 2020 that was on the brink of becoming violent. The Save America campaign was created to raise money to keep the “big lie” alive. There was no equivalent in Brazil. Thank God!

There was desecration of artwork in official rooms I am glad that no one died in the riot on January 8, 2022. No official, including Bolsonaro, referred to the rioters as patriots. No politician downplayed or minimized the impact of the January 8 riots, as Republican lawmakers had done in the US. It was recognized as an anti-democracy attack.

Wikipedia: Artworks damaged, destroyed or stolen in the 2023 Brasilia attacks

I am also glad to hear over 1,000 rioters (some reports are 1,500) were arrested. They seemed to be filming themselves, for posting to social media. I’m certain many cellphones will be confiscated as evidence. Note to rioters, don’t bring expensive iphones to riots.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes suspended Governor of Brasilia, Ibaneis Rocha from his job as governor for at least 90 days, saying that the upheaval “could only occur with the consent, and even effective participation, of the security and intelligence authorities.” The supporters of Bolsonaro had set up tent cities in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. The court ordered them dismantled.

Lula da Silva has got a huge challenge now, convincing Brazilians he truly wants to unite the country. The voting system of Brazil works. Many will go on believing that the election was stolen and Lula now will turn Brazil into an autocratic communist country like Cuba. The democratic structure of Brazil is too strong for this to happen.

Bolsonaro is too proud to say he lost in a free and fair election. But he shown to be much better than Trump, as he has conceded to others in private that he lost the election. He is now in the US, for medical treatment. I wish him well.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Jair Bolsonaro – frightening statements

by Dave

Jair Bolsonaro is President of Brazil, a country with 211 million residents. He is up for re-election in 2022. He is a right-wing populist, and in many ways similar to Donald Trump.

The norms of a working democracy are that the candidate enters an election to win the approval of the people and a willingness to accept the results, if he loses. Trump’s approach was that if he won, it showed he was the better candidate and if he lost, the election was rigged against him. Thus, he solidified his base against Democrats and the new president and in doing so, undermined the election in general. It is sadly all about fund raising, to maintain the base.

Similar to Trump, Bolsonaro claimed the electronic voting machines can’t be trusted. It’s all sounds very familiar. In the US, the lawyers who made the claims for Trump, namely Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell, are facing serious civil lawsuits from the voting machine companies. Sidney Powell may be face disbarment in the states where these claims and others were made, and lacking any evidence.

These lies had consequences. Five people died on January 6, 2021 as the Capitol in Washington was taken over by rioters. It was a very sad day in our history. Since the day it was clear Trump had lost the election, he was making wild claims that the election was stolen, so storming the capitol was a normal reaction of a citizenry who thought their rights to free election was being taken from them. “Stop the Steal” wasn’t just political rhetoric, it was the prelude to a violent attack on our legislators and the vice president of the United States.


Bolsonaro is following closely in Trump’s footsteps. He stated there were only 3 outcomes of the election: He would be re-elected, arrested or killed. (see link below). Another words, if he loses the election, it is because the electoral system failed, and now his enemies would come after him.

“As president, Bolsonaro is allowed and expected to take part in public discussions,” Corbo said. “What he cannot do — and has been doing — is systematically attack the electoral system by which he was elected.” Dr. Corbo is a constitutional law professor in Brazil.

Sadly, I’ve seen this before, way before Trump. Angola’s very first election in 1992, was between the current President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and UNITA’s leader, Jonas Savimbi. The election was to be a triumph of democratic process, ending a decades long civil war, which killed 300,000 Angolans. To this day, I can recall the words of Savimbi’s press secretary, in a shrill voice, calling the election a total fraud and totally lacking in credibility. So, for those that believed the party’s lie, Dos Santos was not the elected candidate, he was not their president, and no one bore any allegiance to him. The election had not been rigged. The UN had monitored the election. Savimbi had enough military equipment and soldiers to re-ignite the civil war, and violence broke out in Luanda, the capital of Angola. The war ended in 2002 with the death of Savimbi.

What Trump was looking for, was a way to legitimize his claims, through Congress, the Justice Department and each state where the Democrats won by a narrow margin (Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan, to name a few) that the election results were false and he had won.

I am hoping that Brazilians deny Bolsonaro a second term, and are smart enough to see through his lies. If he’s the Brazilian Trump, then the next step will be to take whatever measures he can, to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election. I’m afraid the increase rhetoric can turn to violence as it did in the US. Or worse Angola.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

CNN: Bolsonaro says he will either be arrested, killed or win Brazil’s next election

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/06/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-elections-intl-latam/index.html

War of Words

by Dave

“I’m not going to enter a war of words with anybody, including the American president,” Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, told a Danish television channel on Wednesday.  Ok, that’s right.  Don’t back down and don’t escalate,

A few days ago, I was already to post a slightly humorous comment on Greenland, saying the Prime Minister should have told Trump, “Well, if you want Greenland, then give us Puerto Rico. ”  That was going to be my joke.  Then, it came out that the White House actually discussed swapping Puerto Rico for Greenland.   That’s super crazy.

Buying Greenland was a crazy distraction.  The Prime Minister of Denmark,  Mette Frederiksen, was absolutely right to call the idea “absurd.”   Even more absurd is the cavalier way Trump proposed this.   Trump was right that this had been considered during Truman’s presidency in 1946.   But, this was done under tight security, and no one knew about it for 45 years, when it was discovered by a Copenhagen newspaper in declassified documents in the National Archives.

Today, we have a military base (Thule air base) on Greenland.   Denmark has been a strong ally of the US.  Danes have fought with the US in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.    However, unlike Trump,  the Prime Minister is a strong environmentalist, and Denmark is making great strides in reducing carbon emissions.  It would be hard not to be a strong believer in climate change, as it is so evident in Europe and of course, in Greenland.

So, Trump hopped into Air Force 1, to attend the G7 meeting in beautiful Biarritz, France where the hot issues will be Iran, trade issues and climate change.

On climate change,  President Bolsonaro  of Brazil in making his country  great again, has done great harm to the Amazon.  I warned this was going to happen.   The people who voted for him are now choking on smoke in Sao Paulo.    Donald Trump intensified the Trade War, not only with China but with our European allies.  EU is trying desperately to save the Iran Nuclear agreement, after the US pulled out.

So, the G7 meeting will be a “war of words”  with the US now more as  the trouble maker than the problem solver.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/08/16/trump-greenland-purchase-harry-truman-denmark/

Bolsonaro: International cooperative agreements (Part 1)

by Dave

I will provide both English and Portuguese versions of these two  blogs.    The translations were done by Google and likely contain errors.   I would strongly recommend the two links listed below.

In about 10 days,  Brazilians will go to the poll and elect either Jair Bolsonaro or  Fernando Haddad.   I fear Bolsonaro will follow down the same path of Donald Trump,  as a destroyer of international cooperative agreements.    I fear Brazilians do not fully understand the vital role their country plays in global warming and the absolute necessity for aggressive governmental policies to protect  the Amazon.

Because of Donald Trump’s terrible record on environmental protection, I hope my country can find a new leader in year 2020.   Donald Trump never apologizes for his misguided policies.  He lies constantly, and exaggerates their success.

The US in the last century endured starvation in the 1930’s during an economic depression  and then a horrific world war,  where 60 million people around the world died.   This was my parent’s world.  From the ashes of  war, came a new cooperative international spirit,   which is best exemplified by the creation of the United Nations.   Trump has weaken the UN.  Bolsonaro will follow Trump.

The UN was designed to settle disputes among nations.   One of the greatest achievements of the UN was the ratification of the Iran Nuclear Pact,  which subjected the country of Iran to thorough inspections of its facilities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.    The US will soon be in direct violation of this agreement.

The UN Paris Climate Accord was a major breakthrough in international recognition on global warming as a threat to our planet.    Brazil is a vital partner in halting the deforestation of the Amazon.   It shares this responsibility with Peru,  Columbia, Venezuela and Ecuador.

Jair Bolsonaro has little interest in building the bonds of cooperation, and working through the UN in this effort.  Per the New York  Times:

In the Amazon, illegal loggers, miners, land-grabbers, as well as large land owners have rallied to his banner. Here, they don’t expect Bolsonaro to enforce the law. On the contrary, the hope is that he fulfils his promise to obliterate nearly all environment and pro-indigenous legislation. He won massive support in rural central western states and all but one Amazonian state.

In August, Bolsonaro raised  concerns internationally when he pledged to join Trump’s US and withdraw Brazil from the Paris agreement. That means the country would no longer be committed to curb its emissions from the deforestation of the Amazon, which is here a bigger source of greenhouse gas than the burning of fossil fuels.

Brazil can of course still insist that the US auto emissions are to blame, or India’s burning of coal.  In the end,  global warming is disastrous for the entire planet, just as World War 2 was.    We are one planet.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro

Bolsonaro: Acordos cooperativos internacionais (Parte 1)

by Dave

This is a translated version of Bolsonaro: International cooperative agreements into Portuguese.  It concerns the upcoming Brazilian elections. It is provided by Google and likely contains errors.

A tradução foi fornecida pelo Google e provavelmente contém erros.

Em cerca de 10 dias, os brasileiros irão à votação e elegerão Jair Bolsonaro ou Fernando Haddad. Temo que Bolsonaro siga o mesmo caminho de Donald Trump, como um destruidor de acordos cooperativos internacionais. Eu temo que os brasileiros não entendam completamente o papel vital que seu país desempenha no aquecimento global e a absoluta necessidade de políticas governamentais agressivas para proteger a Amazônia.

Por causa do terrível histórico de Donald Trump sobre proteção ambiental, espero que meu país possa encontrar um novo líder no ano 2020. Donald Trump nunca pede desculpas por suas políticas equivocadas. Ele mente constantemente e exagera seu sucesso.

Os EUA no século passado sofreram fome na década de 1930 durante uma depressão econômica e depois uma terrível guerra mundial, onde 60 milhões de pessoas morreram no mundo. Este era o mundo dos meus pais. Das cinzas da guerra, surgiu um novo espírito internacional cooperativo, que é melhor exemplificado pela criação das Nações Unidas. Trump enfraqueceu a ONU. Bolsonaro seguirá Trump.

A ONU foi projetada para resolver disputas entre as nações. Uma das maiores conquistas da ONU foi a ratificação do Pacto Nuclear do Irã, que sujeitou o país do Irã a inspeções completas de suas instalações em troca do levantamento das sanções. Os EUA em breve estarão em violação direta deste acordo.

O Acordo do Clima de Paris da ONU foi um grande avanço no reconhecimento internacional sobre o aquecimento global como uma ameaça ao nosso planeta. O Brasil é um parceiro vital para deter o desmatamento da Amazônia. Compartilha essa responsabilidade com o Peru, Colômbia, Venezuela e Equador.

Jair Bolsonaro tem pouco interesse em construir os laços de cooperação e trabalhar com a ONU nesse esforço. De acordo com o Guardian:

Na Amazônia, madeireiros ilegais, mineradores, grileiros e grandes proprietários de terras se uniram à sua bandeira. Aqui, eles não esperam que Bolsonaro cumpra a lei. Pelo contrário, a esperança é que ele cumpra sua promessa de obliterar quase toda a legislação ambiental e pró-indígena. Ele ganhou apoio maciço em estados rurais do centro-oeste e todos menos um estado da Amazônia.

Em agosto, Bolsonaro levantou preocupações internacionalmente quando prometeu ingressar nos Estados Unidos de Trump e retirar o Brasil do acordo de Paris. Isso significa que o país não estaria mais comprometido em conter suas emissões do desmatamento da Amazônia, que é aqui uma fonte maior de gás de efeito estufa do que a queima de combustíveis fósseis.

O Brasil pode, claro, ainda insistir que as emissões de automóveis dos EUA são as culpadas, ou a queima de carvão da Índia. No final, o aquecimento global é desastroso para todo o planeta, assim como a 2ª Guerra Mundial. Nós somos um planeta.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro

 

Bolsonaro: Direitos dos povos indígenas (Part 2)

by Dave

This is a Portuguese translation of the prior post on the Presidential elections in Brazil.   The right wing candidate is Jair Bolsonaro.   The election will be held on October 28, 2018.  The links as provided below provide more information on Bolsonaro.  The translation was done with Google and likely contains errors.

Minha família tem muitos imigrantes. Eu sou o filho de um imigrante. Fico magoado com o ódio e os absurdos exageros na imigração. Trump usa a ajuda externa como se fosse uma arma para coagir outros países a concordar com suas políticas. Ele vê um mundo competitivo e hostil.

Imigrantes são minorias. Eu vejo muito Trump em Bolsonaro, para os povos indígenas da Amazônia. Na verdade, Bolsonaro é pior.  Gardi

As políticas ambientais de Bolsonaro estão ligadas a atitudes racistas em relação às minorias e aos povos indígenas do Brasil. Em um discurso no ano passado, ele disse: “As minorias têm que se curvar à maioria … As minorias devem adaptar-se ou simplesmente desaparecer.”

Expressando uma visão comum aos círculos militares, ele afirmou, sem evidências, que os direitos territoriais indígenas são parte de uma trama ocidental para criar estados amazônicos separatistas apoiados pela ONU.

“Mais cedo ou mais tarde, teremos dezenas de países dentro do Brasil. Não teremos nenhuma interferência nesses países, o primeiro mundo explorará os índios e nada será deixado para nós ”, disse ele no ano passado.

Bolsonaro prometeu abrir terras indígenas para mineração e outras atividades econômicas. Cerca de 13% do território brasileiro é reconhecido como terras indígenas, a maioria delas na Amazônia. Eles são uma barreira importante para proteger a floresta, apenas 2% do desmatamento da floresta tropical ocorreu dentro do território indígena.

Meu conselho é que o brasileiro não deva se afastar radicalmente da cooperação internacional. Levará muito tempo para recuperar nossos títulos internacionais depois que Trump for embora. Fernando Haddad pode não ser perfeito, mas ele é uma escolha muito melhor do que Bolsonaro.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro

 

 

 

Bolsonaro: Rights of indigenous people (Part 2)

by Dave

My family has many immigrants.  I am the son of an immigrant.   I am hurt by the hatred and absurd exaggerations on immigration.   Trump uses foreign aid as if it was a weapon to coerce other countries in agreeing to his policies.   He  sees a competitive and hostile world.

Immigrants are minorities.  I see a lot of Trump in Bolsonaro, to the indigenous people of the Amazon.  Actually Bolsonaro is worse.  Per the Guardian (see link below):

Bolsonaro’s environment policies are tied to racist attitudes toward minorities and Brazil’s indigenous peoples. In a speech last year, he said: “Minorities have to bend down to the majority … The minorities [should] either adapt or simply vanish.”

Expressing a view common to military circles, he has claimed, without evidence, that indigenous land rights are part of a western plot to create separatist Amazonian states supported by the UN.

“Sooner or later, we will have dozens of countries inside [Brazil]. We won’t have any interference in these countries, the first world will exploit the Indians, and nothing will be left for us,” he said last year.

Bolsonaro has promised to open indigenous lands to mining and other economic activities. About 13% of Brazil’s territory is recognised indigenous lands, most of them in the Amazon. They are a major barrier to protect the forest, only 2% of rainforest deforestation has occurred inside indigenous territory.

My advice is that Brazilian should not take this radical move away from international cooperation.  It will take a very long time to recover our international bonds once Trump is gone.    Fernando Haddad may not be perfect but he is a far better choice than Bolsonaro.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro