Month: December 2021

My Predictions – 2022

by Dave
  1. Trump and his company will continue to file cases in court and lose every single one of them. The first loss will happen at the very end of January when the Supreme Court will reject the request by Trump to review the Jan 6 committee subpoena for documents from the National Archives and the documents will be in the hands of the committee by February.
  2. In the most recent lawsuit against Attorney General Letica James, it will be dismissed with harsh words, such as the lawsuit is frivolous and politically motivated.
  3. Devin Nunes is the CEO of Trump’s new social media company. Trump will fire him before the end of the year.
  4. Many countries in Europe will have higher percentage of their population vaccinated than in the US. This is a fairly easy prediction, and it is a sad fact that many Americans have doubts about the vaccines or believe popular but untrue conspiracy theories. Eastern Europe and Russia will catch up to the US.
  5. A new Iran nuclear deal will be agreed upon. Republicans will do everything they can to defeat it.
  6. Climate change will be very much present, as the northwest of the US will suffer from extreme heat and our hurricanes will be wetter, creating more flooding,

I think 6 predictions are enough for now. I’ll check back at the end of 2022 and see how I did. I did not make any predictions on the mid-term elections, but it’s certainly possible for both the House and the Senate to be controlled by Republicans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

It’s too late for you now

by Dave

I think you know the question. Moderna, Pfizer or J&J shots can’t help someone who has Covid-19. It was tweeted by an ER nurse. The first line of defense against Covid-19 is vaccination. In the US, it is free and widely available. Yes, there is great progress being made on Covid-19 treatments, but I rather not get Covid-19 to begin with and a hospital bed is a lousy place to be trying to see what’s available.

Dave

Fight for Trump’s documents: End game.

by Dave

On December 9, Donald Trump lost his case in the Circuit Court of Washington DC to bar the transfer of documents held in the National Archives from being handed over to the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 siege of the Capital.

The end game depends on mid-term election in 2022.

Donald Trump will ask the Supreme Court to review the decision. He has been given 14 days to do this. He will wait until the last minute on December 23 to petition the Supreme Court.

Now, my prediction. How will all this end? In late January, 2022, the Supreme Court will decline to hear this case. The National Archive will comply with the subpoena. The legitimacy of the Committee and their efforts to obtain the necessary testimony and documents will be upheld.

The court said Trump failed to demonstrate the harm that would be caused by releasing the documents to the Committee. The harm is not to the country, but to Trump. It will show the extreme measures Trump will go to in order to promote himself. “Stop the steal” attack on the Capitol resulted in injuries and deaths to people doing their job.

Republicans are hoping to regain the majority in the House in the mid-term election, and then they will disband the January 6 investigation. The only way to prevent this, is to vote in Democratic representatives of Congress. The Jan 6 committee must be allowed to complete their work.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

CNN: Appeals court rejects Trump’s bid to keep January 6 documents from House committee

Abortion case now with the Supreme Court

by Dave

Not my favorite topic. The abortion case is highly divisive, entwining legal, religious and political viewpoints. I’ll leave most of the commentary up to the pundits on internet, social media and cable news. who seem able and willing to comment on any topic in a minute. I trust more the printed media, in particular the New York Times and Washington Post. Yes, I am a news snob. I include only two links, one from Wikipedia, and a second from Scotusblog.com . The Supreme Court typically issues their most controversial opinions late in June or July, shortly before adjourning for the summer.

The case before the Supreme Court is Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and at issue is law recently passed in Mississippi which permits abortion up to the first 15 weeks. This is a violation of Roe v. Wade which permits states to outlaw abortions only at the end of the second trimester, approximately 24 weeks.

Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973, with Justice Harry Blackmun, a Republican nominated by Nixon, writing the majority opinion. Prior to this cases, it was hard time getting a case heard in the Supreme Court because by the time because there was no “live” case, as the woman whose rights had been denied, would have already given birth. The Court in 1973 opined that the case could go forward without the requirement of a “live” case.

I have included links on the history of the Roe v. Wade and the oral arguments summary by Amy Howe (Scotusblog). I believe both links provide a neutral stance on the issues.

The liberals on the court, would like to consider Roe v. Wade as settled law, which establishes a precedent for all future cases. It was decided on the Ninth and Fourteenth Amendments to the Constitution.

The conservatives likely consider Roe v. Wade improperly decided on a weak or nonexistent constitutional basis, and so they are merely correcting prior errors of the court. For practical purposes, if Roe v. Wade is overturned, abortion rights will return to the states to decide. What is legal in one state, could result in a felony charges (manslaughter) in another.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia: Roe v Wade

Scotus Blog on summary of oral arguments in Dobbs