Month: March 2017

Coal Companies and Jobs

by Dave

For those who watch Jim Cramer’s Mad Money show, one might thing the coal producers would be the perfect “Trump stock” as the EPA is set to reverse course on air pollution standard regulations, enacted during the Obama era.

But coal stocks are not doing well at least in the last 3 months.  Since the beginning of 2017, Arch Coal (ARCH) is down 16% and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) is down 27%.

We have plenty of coal resources, but declining demand.  See prior post, “Coal Craziness” for more details with links.   The decline in employment over the last 70 years or so, is due to a high level of mechanization in the mines as well as less demand for coal.  The electric producers will use the lowest cost fuel, and natural gas is a very competitive alternative to coal.

I suggested in my last post, that coal miners might be able to retrain for the more lucrative area of the manufacturing of  solar energy photo-voltaic panels.  A recent university study suggests this is possible, and the benefits would be enormous:

Coal to solar transition

The coal industry is not disappearing (sorry Al Gore) but the solar energy industry is likely to be booming in the next 5 to 10 years.

Investing in solar energy has been a bumpy ride.   I would never think “green energy” and Trump policies go together.  But based on  year to date, investing in a solar power fund  (KWT)  would have made about 10%, better than the market average of 6%.    Pulling out the international agreements to reduce fossil fuel emissions, and subsidies for the solar industry are among the worst plans of the Trump administration.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

How long can this go on?

by Dave

Unemployment numbers as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, were PHONY according to candidate Trump in 2016.  They should excellent declines in unemployment.

All of a sudden,  a positive report from the Bureau, and the numbers, according to President Trump are now accurate, and shows the success of his first month in office.

According to the New York Times:

” Mr. Spicer later quoted Mr. Trump on his faith in the report, “They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.”

Nothing has changed at the Bureau.  Candidate Trump hated the statistics because it showed long term improvement in the economy.  Now President Trump likes the latest numbers, so they are VERY REAL numbers.

Good Lord, how long can this go on?

See link:

New York Times article

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Acting Presidential

by Dave

The recent tweets on potential wire tapping of the Trump Towers by Obama, was shameful. Even Fox News recognized Trump’s reaction was wrong, because no president has the authority to order wiretaps.  It must come from the Justice Department, and be approved through a court hearing.

“Acting presidential” means nothing is done in haste.  Words are carefully chosen. You connect with the American people with verified facts and appropriate statistics.   Unlike a campaign, where comments are tossed about, and then forgotten, nothing is forgotten when it comes from the US President.

The President has the FBI and Justice Department to investigate violation of the law.  He has a team of experts to help him with appropriate responses.

Instead, it looks like Trump fires off another tweet, leaving his staff to find some way to frame an appropriate alternative meaning to his words.  It’s a tough job because he doesn’t back down.

At this point, his statements are 50 to 70% lies according to Politifact.  The most blatant lies (Pants on Fire) are at 17% and false statements are 33% resulting in 50% false statements.  Add in another mostly false statements (20%) results in 70% lies.  Truthful statements are rare events, with 4% in total.  I’m tracking the truthful statements, and will let you know if he makes any in the next few months.

Politifact on Trump

His last true statement according to Politifact 

Bottom line is if it comes from Trump, and it’s not just a statement of opinion, but presented as  factual information,  it is more likely a lie than the truth.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Educating the Donald

by Dave

The wiretapping story will backlash on Trump.  Nobody knows the full story right now, just Donald’s tweets.   I think the hunches from Wired got it right:

If the Feds Did Wiretap Trump Tower, It’s Not Obama Who Should Worry

If warrants were requested for surveillance,  it was never leaked out during the elections.  That’s the way good government should operated, as it was an ongoing investigation.

Take some notes Donald and learn.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Did Trump inherit a mess?

by Dave

No.  He inherited a booming economy:

Politifact website

… Trump’s 94 million figure is vastly inflated because it includes retirees, high school students over 16, undergraduate and graduate students, stay-at-home parents, disabled people, adults who are engaged in full-time education or training — people who either wouldn’t be expected to be working or who are engaged in other worthy pursuits.

The “labor participation” numbers have been going down in part because  baby boomers are retiring and mote people over 16 years old are attending school full time.

Note also:

Obama’s true, mostly true and half true statements = 75%

Obama’s  mostly false, false and pants on fire = 25%

________________________________________________

Trump’s true, mostly true and half true statements = 30%

Trump’s  mostly false, false and pants on fire = 70%

Just about the opposite to Obama.

Stay tuned,

Dave