Just like a chemical reaction, peace negotiations are possible if certain elements are present. The first is there must be the realization on both sides, that what lead to war will not be achieved, or not achieved without enormous cost and harm. This is what lead to the US to start negotiations with Vietnam, on ending the war.
On both sides of a conflict, there is a tremendous political risk in engaging in peace talks, as it will be perceived as a cowardly way to end a conflict. Therefore, secrecy and backdoor negotiations are incredibly important. Diplomats around the world, know this. In looking for solutions, you respect the offers from the other side. We seem to give respect to Russia, as they propose “Peace Plans” to end the war in Ukraine. We don’t do the same for Iran.
It is clear, that in resolving conflicts, negotiators look for possible actions or promises that might appeal to their adversaries. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a negotiation to avoid war, and unfortunately the concessions made to Iran were used very unfairly to cast Democrats as weak negotiators. A concession was made to pay Iran, 440 million dollars owed on military equipment they bought prior to 1979 but was never delivered. This grew to 1.2 billion dollars after interest for more than 25 years. This concession for peace doesn’t look too much, today.
Negotiations require diplomatic expertise and patience. This is where the team of Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and JD Vance are terribly deficient. Jared Kushner stated at a conference:
“Peace is not that different from business,” Kushner told the audience. “Both things are puzzles.”
But Kushner is conflicted as his business interests are heavily based on Affinity fund, with huge investments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar in particular, did not support the US-Israel attack on Iran.
Business deals fail all the time, and all that is lost is money and opportunity. The long term consequences of the failed Iran peace negotiations are much larger. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in shortages of oil and fertilizer worldwide. As the threats against Iran increase from Trump, more hardline leaders in Iran prevail and frustrate negotiations through more extreme demands.
Deals are made when negotiators understand the tipping points of their adversaries to make peace more acceptable than war. Having a cease-fire in place that lasts is helpful, as negotiations are terribly difficult when the battlefield is constantly changing.
I believe the current conflict in Iran can be solved without resuming the US attack on Iran. I believe there is a path to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. It is going to involve the US returning to some of the core aspects of the Iran nuclear deal, including payments of billions of dollars in “debt payments” and allowing Iran to refine some uranium for peaceful purposes. The roadblock to lasting peace is Trump and MAGA politics. We have not hit the tipping point for the US to enter in serious negotiations. Both Russia and China are winners in the conflict, supplying Iran with military weapons.
The negotiations for peace in Ukraine failed because the necessary elements were lacking. Putin ultimately wants control of Ukraine. He argues that Russia needs a “buffer zone” to protect it from Ukraine. The buffer zone will be Russia’s staging ground for a military take-over of Kyiv. Russia invaded Ukraine, and the only road to peace, is a Russian withdrawal. For that to happen, the US must support Ukraine, with all the weapons it needs to defend itself. The war must be won on the battlefield.
Stay tuned,
Dave
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