Month: May 2026

Ukraine War – Unforeseen Consequences

by Dave

February 24, 2022 marks the date, Russian troops rolled into Ukraine from Belarus. Given the military might of Russia, many experts were saying Ukraine didn’t stand a chance. So Putin thought this would be a short war. He was terribly wrong.

Putin claimed Ukraine belonged to Russia. Also, he argued that Ukraine was a threat to Russia. He used the actions of separatists in Dunbas region to argue that Russians were mistreated in Ukraine. Of course, Russia supported the separatists.

One of the unforeseen consequences of the invasion, at least from Putin’s perspective, is increase support of Ukraine from European countries. Putin sees NATO as a threat. As long as Ukraine is under attack, it will not be able to join NATO. Sweden joined NATO in 2024 and Finland in 2023. Ukraine made formal application to join NATO in September 2022. Their application will not be approved (formal accession) until the fighting ends.

To end the war, NATO must continue to expand and allow more Eastern European countries to join. Two countries in particular: Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Slowly, the message will sink in that Russia does not respect the sovereignty of its former republics.

Putin likely miscalculated the extent of support that Ukraine would receive. Ukraine needs the support of its European allies and the United States. The defeat of Prime Minister Orban of Hungary in April was critical for continued support of the European Union. Per Wikpedia “On 23 April 2026, the EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. On 24 April 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Ukraine cannot join the EU while at war, contrary to President Zelensky’s goal of EU membership by 2027.”

Trump famously stated that in this conflict, “Russia holds all the cards.” It seemed for a while, that Russia slowly was winning, in terms of increased occupied territory along the western border, Ukraine would have to settle for losing part of its country as the price of peace. Russia seemed to have an endless supply of drones and missiles, which would overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.

Finally, Ukraine has been changing its battlefield strategy, to go on the offensive. The article from the Atlantic Council suggests that SpaceX denial of illicit use of the Starlink communication system has seriously disrupted Russian communications. The Russians have taken countermeasures, now using Sprint-030 satellite terminals on the frontlines.

Ukrainian battlefield gains expose Russia’s communications problems

I am certain that since 2022, Putin never envisioned the Ukrainian attack on Russia. The Russian strategy is to continue to advance the eastern flank, with the objective of taking Kyiv and Kherson. Now they have to be concerned with defending their oil terminals, pipelines and military bases. Factories that produce military equipment are also targets.

Ukrainian drone attack triggers fire at a Russian oil terminal

Putin miscalculated Ukraine’s ability to develop and produce drones with a long-range capacity, to attack deep within Russian territory. Ukraine was not a threat to Russia in 2022, at the onset of the invasion, but it is today.

From AI to interceptors, Ukraine is trying to drone-proof its skies

From PBS:

“Ukraine’s long-range drone program features domestically produced, jet-powered, and fixed-wing kamikaze UAVs capable of striking targets up to 1,600 km away. These systems—such as the Fire Point FP-1, Beaver, and RS-1 Bars—straddle the line between cruise missiles and drones, crippling Russian energy infrastructure and military sites.”

Trade sanctions on Russian oil were in place, but Trump has temporarily lifted these sanctions:

“The Trump administration has temporarily eased select sanctions on Russian oil shipments, issuing General Licenses through the Treasury Department to allow the sale and delivery of crude oil already loaded on vessels.This waiver was implemented to mitigate global energy shortages and lower gas prices caused by the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran. Despite initially stating the temporary exemptions would not be extended, the Treasury Department reversed course to renew the pause on select oil tanker sanctions.”

Council of Foreign Relations

As long as Russia is convinced that it can ultimately prevail, no serious negotiations leading to peace will occur.

In sum, Russia’s attempt to control Ukraine through military force is failing, both from a political and military point of view. Russia is benefiting from the Iran war through high oil prices and the lifting of sanctions. The US must do more to force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. It will take time.

Stay tuned,

Dave

How to make peace

by Dave

Just like a chemical reaction, peace negotiations are possible if certain elements are present. The first is there must be the realization on both sides, that what led to war will not be achieved, or not achieved without enormous cost and harm. This is what lead to the US to start negotiations with Vietnam, on ending the war.

On both sides of a conflict, there is a tremendous political risk in engaging in peace talks, as it will be perceived as a cowardly way to end a conflict. Therefore, secrecy and backdoor negotiations are incredibly important. Diplomats around the world, know this. In looking for solutions, you respect the offers from the other side. We seem to give respect to Russia, as they propose “Peace Plans” to end the war in Ukraine. We don’t do the same for Iran.

It is clear, that in resolving conflicts, negotiators look for possible actions or promises that might appeal to their adversaries. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a negotiation to avoid war, and unfortunately the concessions made to Iran were used very unfairly to cast Democrats as weak negotiators. A concession was made to pay Iran, 440 million dollars owed on military equipment they bought prior to 1979 but was never delivered. This grew to 1.2 billion dollars after interest for more than 25 years. This concession for peace doesn’t look too much, today.

Negotiations require diplomatic expertise and patience. This is where the team of Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and JD Vance are terribly deficient. Jared Kushner stated at a conference:

“Peace is not that different from business,” Kushner told the audience. “Both things are puzzles.”

But Kushner is conflicted as his business interests are heavily based on Affinity fund, with huge investments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar in particular, did not support the US-Israel attack on Iran.

Business deals fail all the time, and all that is lost is money and opportunity. The long term consequences of the failed Iran peace negotiations are much larger. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in shortages of oil and fertilizer worldwide. As the threats against Iran increase from Trump, more hardline leaders in Iran prevail and frustrate negotiations through more extreme demands.

Deals are made when negotiators understand the tipping points of their adversaries to make peace more acceptable than war. Having a cease-fire in place that lasts is helpful, as negotiations are terribly difficult when the battlefield is constantly changing.

I believe the current conflict in Iran can be solved without resuming the US attack on Iran. I believe there is a path to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. It is going to involve the US returning to some of the core aspects of the Iran nuclear deal, including payments of billions of dollars in “debt payments” and allowing Iran to refine some uranium for peaceful purposes. The roadblock to lasting peace is Trump and MAGA politics. We have not hit the tipping point for the US to enter in serious negotiations. Both Russia and China are winners in the conflict, supplying Iran with military weapons.

The negotiations for peace in Ukraine failed because the necessary elements were lacking. Putin ultimately wants control of Ukraine. He argues that Russia needs a “buffer zone” to protect it from Ukraine. The buffer zone will be Russia’s staging ground for a military take-over of Kyiv. Russia invaded Ukraine, and the only road to peace, is a Russian withdrawal. For that to happen, the US must support Ukraine, with all the weapons it needs to defend itself. The war must be won on the battlefield.

Stay tuned,

Dave

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Ukraine War: Attacks and Counter Attacks

by Dave

“All’s fair in love and war” goes the old saying. Yes, there are rules of engagement, and what a country can do to protect itself. International rules of war are rarely followed. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 24, 2022 and many military analysts thought Ukraine wouldn’t last six months, being totally outnumbered by Russia.

There should be no doubt what Russia wants, which is reestablishing total control of Ukraine, and destroying every aspect of an independent Ukraine. .It is estimated that Russia has suffered 1.2 million causalities (killed, wounded or missing) since the war began. It is estimated that 324,000 Russians have been killed. But Putin is undeterred.

The 3-day cease-fire ended officially on Wednesday. And then Putin began the largest attack yet in his desire to destroy Ukraine in multiple cities, with as many as 1,500 drones and missiles, in the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and throughout the country. `

Russia hammers Ukraine in biggest prolonged drone attack since war began

The intent of the massive attacks is to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses. Missiles and drones can be shot down, but it is expensive way to defend the country. The best defense at times, is a good offense, as Ukraine knows well. :

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will “not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes … go unpunished,” and would be “entirely justified” to hit Russia’s oil industry, military production in retaliation for the recent Russian attacks on the country.

Ukraine struck back as it promised:

Massive fire erupts at Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery as Ukrainian drone blitz hits multiple targets, oblasts

Russia claimed this was an attack on Russian civilians, and reported 3 people had been killed and 12 injured.

Bottom line is that Ukraine is able to attack up to 1,000 miles into Russia with drones and hit military targets. Putin is losing ground. The Ukrainians are defending their country the best way they can.

One military expert, who from the very start, understood the resilience and determination of Ukraine, was General Jack Keane, a frequent commentator on Fox News. He calls the war stalemated, and the Russian “peace demands” unreasonable, as Ukraine would have to cede a large part of their country, even parts not under the control of Russia.

Putin will not likely see the war as unwinnable, but leaders in the Kremlin can. Real peace comes when Russia decides to respect the security and sovereignty of Ukraine. Another words, accept defeat. Ukraine belongs to Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Cease-fires are a joke!

by Dave

New York Times columnist Marc Santora nailed it, as he wrote:

“Through history, cease-fires have generally been reached after lengthy processes that help warring sides achieve a lasting settlement. But in the war in Ukraine, analysts said, they have become a tool of performative diplomacy, stand-alone commodities used to manage media cycles while the machinery of war grinds along.”

It was just a 3-day cease-fire in the Russian assault of Ukraine. When it ended, Russia made up for lost time with a deadly bombing spree, including missiles, drones and guided bombs.

Trump and Putin are similar, in using cease-fires, as a means to tamping down discontent in their own countries and re-assuring the populace that the conflict would be over soon. The cost of the US attack on Iran, is really incalculable, as vital supplies of oil and fertilizer are stranded in the Straits of Hormuz. As I prepare this posting, a Chinese tanker, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil (value ~ 200 million dollars) is attempting to pass through the straits. There are shortages of both in many countries.

Russia really indiscriminately pounded Ukraine in the last few days, attacking a school and an apartment building, according to the Guardian:

” Zelenskyy said drones were intercepted over several regions but reported damage to energy facilities, apartment buildings, a kindergarten and a civilian locomotive. In Kyiv, debris from a downed drone fell on the roof of a 16-storey residential building in the northern Obolon district, sparking a fire, said the mayor, Vitali Klitschko. Two people were hurt in the central Cherkasy region, and damage was also recorded in the Zhytomyr region, farther west, and in the Chernihiv region on the Russian border.”

The Ukraine war will end only when the powers within the Kremlin realizes they will not succeed in controlling Ukraine. Putin has expanded Russia, making Belarus and Chechnya subservient to Russia. They are hard at work, intervening in Libya and Sudan. The best chance for peace in Ukraine is a total commitment to the Ukraine government.

Jim Cramer has a panel of sound buttons, which is really clever. One is scary noises, and the other is applause. The button that Trump has used and now is totally worn out is: “It will be all over soon.” The US-Iran conflict, which the US started and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (invasion) which Russia started, is not ending soon. To his base, it means just ignore the news.

The chance of achieving any of goals Trump put forward prior to his attack on Iran, is honestly in shambles. The stated that the attack allowed more moderate leaders to take control. Just the opposite really happened. He said Iran’s enriched uranium was wiped out by previous bombing. The closing of the Straits of Hormuz is Iran’s one ace card, to end the war on their terms. They are not going to discard their ace.

So cease-fires are not a prelude to peace, not in Ukraine nor in Iran.

Stay tuned,

Dave

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-truce-trump.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/13/ukraine-war-briefing-deadly-russian-bombing-spree-end-of-ceasefire