Month: June 2019

Hitting the “Nationalism” button too often

by Dave

It gets at times pretty scary.  What nationalism means, at least to Trump supporters, is we do what is in our interest.  Actually, the US foreign policy always has put the country’s interest at its top priority.  It’s really the short-sighted policy of Trump when our policy extends to telling  other countries  what to do or we will try to screw them over big time.   I have said about a 100 times, you can’t win a trade war or an arms race, because your enemies will retaliate, a guaranteed lose-lose outcome.  Trump’s nationalist policies have shut out international cooperation of other countries in helping solve problems.   China could have helped us with to denuclearize North Korea, but not any longer.  Most of the time, Trump’s threats are really hot air.   At the last minute, he’ll find a reason not to take immediate action, but still leave this lingering idea that other countries are doing really shameful things.   Sort of like, you’re bad and we’ll get even later.  Very dumb and kind of childish.    And he will always, always claim victory. Saber rattling, blaming others and just plain lying are sad ways to run foreign affairs.

Case in point is our Venezuela policy.  Obviously, Trump was quick to support opposition leader,  Juan Guaido on the wrong assumption that the military would throw their support behind him, Maduro would be history.   He attacked the “Biden-Obama” administration for not taking action against Maduro.   He did not mention that during the 11 years Hugo Chavez was in power, intent on destroying democratic and civil liberties, and establishing a corrupt system of governance,  George Bush could do little to prevent this.   Trump claimed his policies worked in Venezuela, as he pressured the Russians to pull out of Venezuela.   In March 2019, (about a million Trump tweets ago) Russia  responded saying this wasn’t true and they were going to honor their commitments made to Venezuela.    See link in below.

Venezuela is a great example of Russia, China and the US each doing what is in their national interest.  Russia and China have invested heavily in Venezuela, which underlies their support of Maduro.   The US would like to see Maduro gone and restoration of a stability in the country.  The  recent visit by UN Commissioner on Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet did not make headline news.  The Trump administration has cut off all funding for the UN Human Rights Council, calling it a leftist organization.  The ultra conservative National Security Adviser, John Bolton,  has really lead the way against using the UN to resolve crises.

“The destiny of more than 30 million Venezuelans resides in the will and the ability of its leaders to put the people’s human rights above any personal, political or ideological ambition,” Bachelet said… The UN human rights chief plans to set up an office in Venezuela to monitor the ongoing humanitarian crisis there. Michelle Bachelet said the dire situation must not be allowed to “deteriorate any further.”

There isn’t a quick solution to Venezuela.  Bachelet’s visit was definitely a step in the right direction.   It says to Maduro to stop lying to its people.

Perhaps, the next great example of misguided nationalism, comes from Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imported Mexican goods.  Of course, it never happened.  Trump’s version of events is that he pressure Mexico to take action against illegals entering into Mexico by threatening tariffs.  What really happened, is that Mexico offered nothing new, and these “concessions” were made months earlier.   See links.

There are a number of great examples how this overblown nationalism theme has failed.  I’ll leave the Iran drone episode to another blog, and move on to our constant attacks on Germany.    In 2018, Trump took aim at Germany, for their cooperative agreement with Russia to build a second Baltic sea pipeline to supply Germany with natural gas.   Germany was, of course, acting in their national interest.  Trump understood that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US to the EU could decline once the pipeline is complete.   See my blog:  https://newsandviews.net/2018/08/08/pipeline-dollars-to-russia-are-not-acceptable/

Using natural gas to generate energy is better than using coal,   The EU  needs the Russian gas, is because the existing production from UK and  Norwegian gas fields have been declining for years.  So, Germany and other EU leaders  are doing what is their national interest, and at this point, I guess, will  just ignore Trump’s comments.

It’s fine for a politician to proclaim his love for his country.  But, any real progress in international affairs must be multi-national, and with this, some of our goals would be compromised.  I guess it’s comes down to a choice of achieving some progress with existing international institutions and agreements, or striking out alone, and coming up empty handed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Russia scoffs at U.S. demand that it pull troops from Venezuela

US will stop funding UN Human Rights Council

As Trade War Spreads to Mexico,  Companies lose a safe harbor

Who won the Mexican Trade War of 2019

The Democratic Candidates for President

by Dave

My God, there are a lot of them.  I’ve broken them down into 4 groups:  Top dogs (4),  Possible, but not likely  (4),  No chance (15), and don’t vote for these people because they have never held elected office in their lives (2).

Top dogs:  Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren

Possible, but not likely:  Klobuchar, Booker, Buttigieg and O’Rourke

No chance:  Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Blasio, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messen, Moulton. O’Rourke, Ryan, Swalwell,

Don’t vote for these people:  Williamson, Yang

I check Williamson’s website, and it shows she really knows her issues.   I just think she should start by being a Senator or Governor, to show us she’s cut out for the job.

I know exactly what you are thinking – where is Oprah?  She publicly said she would not run.  Mark Zuckerberg is also not running.  Some primaries in February will help separate out the true candidates from the rest.  Then,  8 months from now, on March 3, comes a whole slew of primaries.  I think the field will drop to about 8 candidates.

 

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Wikipedia:  Democratic Presidential Primaries

The tanker attacks

by Dave

Let’s first look at the facts:

On June 13, two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman.  The first attack occurred  on the Norwegian tanker,  The Front Altair.   It loaded with the flammable hydrocarbon mixture naphtha from the United Arab Emirates. They  radioed for help as it caught fire. A short time later, the Japanese tanker,  Kokuka Courageous, loaded with methanol from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, was attack and also called for help.  Fortunately, there was only one injury reported.

Tankers have between 8 to 12 separate tanks for holding petroleum products.  They are structured so a fire in one tank does spread to other tanks.   The tankers are being taken to the United Arab Emirates where their cargo will be offloaded.

The attacks occurred in the Gulf of Oman. The US military has stated that the evidence points to Iran. It’s evidence comes from a speedboat which pulled up along side of the Kokuba, and shows one of the crew trying to remove a limpet landmine.   These mine can be attached to the side of a tanker by magnets.   The US claims that members of Iran’s revolutionary guard were on the speedboat and trying to cover up evidence of the attack’s source.

The British have stated they concur with the US, stating there is high certainty the  attack was from Iran.   The United Arab Emirates has stated they feel this was the attack was “state sponsored” but importantly, did not point the finger at Iran.  Saudi Arabia concurs with the US, and urges the US to take decisive action.

For political reasons, it is easy for Saudi Arabia and UAE to side with US, against Iran.   UAE is attempting to buy military equipment from the US.   At the same time,  the US is making it increasingly difficult EU countries to buy Iranian oil.

Company president Yutaka Katada said Friday he believes the flying objects seen by the sailors could have been bullets. He denied any possibility of mines or torpedoes because the damage was above the ship’s waterline. He called reports of a mine attack “false.”   Katada said the crew members also spotted an Iranian naval ship nearby, but didn’t specify whether that was before or after the attacks.

The owners of the Norwegian tanker have not weighed in on this.

Iran has vehemently denied any involvement.   Experts in Middle East politics are puzzled, saying Iran would have nothing to gain from an attack on foreign tankers.  I agree.

If I had to guess who had the most to gain,  I would argue that it would be Saudi Arabia or UAE.  They would benefit from an attack on Iran.  And maybe UAE is wrong and it wasn’t a foreign government responsible for the attack.  If land mines were used, as the US is convinced, attached to the side of the ship, this would spill cargo and certainly put the crew at risk,  but it would not sink a tanker.  There are plenty of groups which would benefit from increase tensions between the US and Iran, and total US support of Saudi Arabia as the powerhouse of the Middle East.

There is developing a huge divide in the Middle East, along Sunni-Shia lines.  A proxy war is rapidly developing in Libya, with Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia on one side (Tobruk government).    Middle East policy seems to go along with what Prince MBS of Saudi Arabia wants.    Remember Iran and Iraq are both Shia, while Saudi Arabia and UAE are Sunni.   By choosing the Sunni group lead by Saudi Arabia,  we will undermine our relations with   Qatar, Turkey and Iraq.

It is in the interest of the US to reduce tensions rather than choose sides.  I go along with the latest Houston Chronicle opinion,  “Oil tanker attacks aren’t worth war with Iran.” See link below:

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Links:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Oil-tanker-attacks-aren-t-worth-war-with-Iran-13999257.php

 

 

The real immigration problem

by Dave

Donald Trump tweeted a video showing 1,000 migrants coming through a chain link fence at the border.  They were all caught, of course.   We are catching a lot more migrants.  This makes sense, because long before Trump became president, we have spent billions making our southern border more secure.  The Customs and Border Patrol  shows a surge in the number of apprehension and inadmissibility at the SW Border.  Last month approximately 90,000  immigrants who have been apprehended.  This number is about 10,000 less than the CBP numbers which include both   apprehensions and inadmissibilities.

Looking at the video clip a second time, it looks like we could have swarmed in and arrested the first few migrants to get through the hole in the fence and the rest would have not entered the US.  At least on that day at that location.   So, a conscious decision was made to make as big arrest as possible.

I am certain walls do impede the flow of migrants.     Trump likes the word “walls” but what really works are fences.  In fact, what the video showed was that a chain link fence worked, because it took time for the migrants to cut a hole in the fence, and this delay allowed immigration enforcement officers (ICE) to get in position to round everyone up.   It certainly looks like night time video surveillance cameras also work.   The end result of spending all this money at the border,  should logically be that fewer of those intending to cross, actually succeed.  Thus the video could be used, not to show a crisis, but how we’ve succeeded in avoiding one.  I’m certain “electronic walls” (detectors, cameras, drones) work also,

The coyotes will always find ways to get people across the border.  That’s their job.  They will look for the areas with the least barriers to cross.  Obviously, the chain link fence was easy to breach, but the group was so big, it was easy for CBP to spot them.   Border security has been beefed up with about 525 more border agents.

Drugs and other  human trafficking come across the border at the ports of entry, not through holes in chain link fencing.   Both Obama and Trump administrations have been increasing funding to deal with illegal drug smuggling.   It’s a huge problem, but it is a separate issue from the migrant inflows.   Trump is always conflating and confusing these issues.

Statistics are interesting because we are presented with a partial picture and misinterpretations or distortions  are common.  The distortions are often purposeful, particularly with commentators attempting to dramatize the problems.

We know how many people,  who attempt to cross out southern border,   get caught.  This is in the Customs and Border Patrol report.  Last month, 90,000 migrants got caught.  What we want to know is how many made  it to the US.   There are no really good numbers, and trying to guess this based on those caught is wrong.   If measures to catch migrants were basically unchanged, then we could assume that the migrants making it across successfully would go up in proportion to the number who are caught.  Of course this is not true.   Even if we knew how many get into the country illegally, there are substantial numbers who get caught later, particularly if they are involved in criminal activities.   About the best we can say, is that the worst of the migrants, run a high chance of being deported later.

On any particular day or month, you just don’t know in the general population of illegal immigrants is increasing or decreasing.  A lot are here, not because they crossed in illegally, but they overstayed their visas.  A substantial number return to their country.   A general estimate of illegal immigrants in the US is 11 million and our population of illegals may be on the decline.

Now on to removal statistics.   We sent 256.000 illegal immigrants back to their country in Fiscal Year 2018 (last full  month is Sept 2018).   I believe Mexicans crossing at the southern border can be quickly deported.  Returning others to their country of origin has become the real immigration problem.  Apprehensions are nearly double from a year ago, with the real surge from Guatemala and not Mexico.  The real problem is we have run out of space to adequately house immigrants.

 

With more than 13,000 migrants in custody—an unprecedented number and more than twice what CBP considers a “crisis level”—McAleenan said, calling the situation an “unprecedented humanitarian and border security crisis all along our southwest border.” The overcrowding of CBP facilities have caused the agency to start directly releasing some migrants caught at the border, instead of transferring them to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which itself doesn’t have sufficient detention capacity to accept them.  This is the first time in more than a decade that the CBP has had to directly release its detainees and is trying to pick those with the lowest risk, McAleenan said.

Trump hates “catch and release” but he is forced into it because there’s no room at the facilities.  So, we are having a trade war over what?  Beds?  You’ve got to be kidding.   This is what Mexican officials will be telling US leaders in Washington on Wednesday  They will be saying “You invested heavily in law enforcement, and nothing else.  That was the route you took,  You were successful.  Now deal with it.”   Also, that they will retaliate in equal measure to any trade tariffs.

The threat of higher tariffs on Mexico, could not come at a worse time, as the USMCA (or NAFTA II) has not bee ratified by Mexico, Canada nor the US.   What we need most right now, is cooperation between the US, Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras on economic development and immigration policy.  The hostile and aggressive actions of Trump will only make the situation worse.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/border-patrol-apprehensions-reach-10-year-single-day-record-of-over-4100_2857594.html

Ice report (256,000 removals)  includes CBP apprehensions at the border.   Note of the violations, 57% were for “failure to appear”  which makes sense.  Who would appear at a hearing where they would be deported?  This kind of violation is for the catch and release group.   Initial book-in was 154K from ICE and 243K from CBP in FY 2018 for a total of 397,000  – incredible.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration