Ukraine attacked a major oil refinery and railway stations deep into Russian territory. The offensive strategy is working. Russia has a shortage of gas and there are long lines at gas stations. It is part of a 40-day offense strategy announced by Zelensky. The targets are no longer strictly military facilities, as attacks on oil refineries affect the entire countries. But, Zelensky has rightly said, these attacks are in retaliation to Russia’s attempt to control Ukraine by force.

Russia’s retaliated and focused on inflicting high civilian casualties, to punish Ukraine. A major apartment building was totally destroyed.

‘The crisis is deep’: The view from Russia as fuel shortages worsen

Russia’s latest attack on Kyiv was exceptionally deadly – here is why

CNN states the latest attacks are the third most deadly attacks since the war began.  Per the CNN article, Russia used ballistic missiles, loitering munitions and jet-powered drones to destroy a residential apartment complex.

Russia used a deadly combination of weapons, designed to accurately hit targets and penetrate defenses. Ukraine stated that the jet powered Geran 4 is difficult to shoot down and in depleting their inventory of defensive weapons. Of particular concern is a shortage of Patriot missiles.

It is an excellent question of whose side is Trump on, because there is no condemnation of Russia’s targeted attacks on civilian populations in Kyiv. Instead of joining with our European allies, Trump appears to be very friendly to Putin.

Hegseth lashes out at NATO allies and announces a review of U.S. forces in Europe

Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegseth speech could only be described as a “Pro-Putin” speech. Very unfortunate at a time when Ukraine needs total US support.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Cheap? What are you talking about? Benchmark Brent Futures Contracts currently is $95.6/bbl. Average US gas price is $4.16. But, experts in this area expected prices to be much higher. They, as a whole, overestimated the affect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz based on supply-demand dynamics. (bbl = barrel, 42 gallons).

Forecasters were looking for the Brent crude to exceed $120/bbl if passage through the Strait continued to be blocked. Gas prices were supposed to be at least a dollar higher. They may ultimately be right, just off on the timing.

Total demand for oil worldwide is estimated to be 105 million bbl/day and about 20 million bbl/day was coming through the Strait of Hormuz, pre-war. This is a huge drop in supply and the dire forecasts really did make sense.

The forecasters say that prices should be much higher IF all other means of supplying oil to the world market were to stay the same. So, the modeling flaw was China’s decision to supply oil from their inventory instead of importing it. This is a delaying action, not a fix.

Every oil exporting country is keenly aware of the action of China and is looking for new routes for their oil. Of course, importing countries are also looking to add to inventories (very difficult at these prices) and cut oil demand. I like the comment by UAE’s energy minister, Sultan al-Jaber:

“Energy security is no longer just about your ability to continue to produce. “It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy.”

This is really the key strategy for oil exporters, in the short term, to get their crude to the worldwide market.

See link below:

Post-War Oil Trade Could Look Nothing Like It Did Before Hormuz

Stay tuned,

Dave

Just like a chemical reaction, peace negotiations are possible if certain elements are present. The first is there must be the realization on both sides, that what led to war will not be achieved, or not achieved without enormous cost and harm. This is what lead to the US to start negotiations with Vietnam, on ending the war.

On both sides of a conflict, there is a tremendous political risk in engaging in peace talks, as it will be perceived as a cowardly way to end a conflict. Therefore, secrecy and backdoor negotiations are incredibly important. Diplomats around the world, know this. In looking for solutions, you respect the offers from the other side. We seem to give respect to Russia, as they propose “Peace Plans” to end the war in Ukraine. We don’t do the same for Iran.

It is clear, that in resolving conflicts, negotiators look for possible actions or promises that might appeal to their adversaries. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a negotiation to avoid war, and unfortunately the concessions made to Iran were used very unfairly to cast Democrats as weak negotiators. A concession was made to pay Iran, 440 million dollars owed on military equipment they bought prior to 1979 but was never delivered. This grew to 1.2 billion dollars after interest for more than 25 years. This concession for peace doesn’t look too much, today.

Negotiations require diplomatic expertise and patience. This is where the team of Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and JD Vance are terribly deficient. Jared Kushner stated at a conference:

“Peace is not that different from business,” Kushner told the audience. “Both things are puzzles.”

But Kushner is conflicted as his business interests are heavily based on Affinity fund, with huge investments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar in particular, did not support the US-Israel attack on Iran.

Business deals fail all the time, and all that is lost is money and opportunity. The long term consequences of the failed Iran peace negotiations are much larger. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in shortages of oil and fertilizer worldwide. As the threats against Iran increase from Trump, more hardline leaders in Iran prevail and frustrate negotiations through more extreme demands.

Deals are made when negotiators understand the tipping points of their adversaries to make peace more acceptable than war. Having a cease-fire in place that lasts is helpful, as negotiations are terribly difficult when the battlefield is constantly changing.

I believe the current conflict in Iran can be solved without resuming the US attack on Iran. I believe there is a path to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. It is going to involve the US returning to some of the core aspects of the Iran nuclear deal, including payments of billions of dollars in “debt payments” and allowing Iran to refine some uranium for peaceful purposes. The roadblock to lasting peace is Trump and MAGA politics. We have not hit the tipping point for the US to enter in serious negotiations. Both Russia and China are winners in the conflict, supplying Iran with military weapons.

The negotiations for peace in Ukraine failed because the necessary elements were lacking. Putin ultimately wants control of Ukraine. He argues that Russia needs a “buffer zone” to protect it from Ukraine. The buffer zone will be Russia’s staging ground for a military take-over of Kyiv. Russia invaded Ukraine, and the only road to peace, is a Russian withdrawal. For that to happen, the US must support Ukraine, with all the weapons it needs to defend itself. The war must be won on the battlefield.

Stay tuned,

Dave

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“A lot of people think international relations is like a game of chess. But it’s not a game of chess, where people sit quietly, thinking out their strategy, taking their time between moves. It’s more like a game of billiards, with a bunch of balls clustered together.” Former Secretary of State Madeline Albright.

Might makes right. This is exactly Trump’s gameplan. We triumph over our enemies. Seize Maduro, threaten to take over the Panama canal, make threats to invade Greenland and economically cripple Cuba (which honestly we’ve done).

And in his second term, he’s definitely surrounds himslf with inexperience people who will agree with him, every step of the way. Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth. And his “outside advisers” Mohamed bin Salam (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (israel).

In all this fury and bravo, to Trump, international law is forgotten. The sovereignty of nations is lost. This unfortunately puts Trump and Putin in the same camp. Long diplomatic discussions do not make headline news.

But, he should have paid more attention to the Straits of Hormuz. Iran has controls this 24 mile critical passage for all cargo ships. Iran wants the US to acknowledge their sovereignty over the strait as part of a negotiated peace.

Iran has a new demand to end the war – and it could bring in billions

“Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous to the world, and it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it,” Rubio said after a G7 meeting in France.

All of a sudden, Marco Rubio is an internationalist! We need unity and respect for international law.

Is what Iran is suggesting illegal?

An agreement between the US and Iran, allowing them to charge a toll to pass through the strait would violate the right to free passage of all ships. However, these rights are part of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The US and Iran are not parties to this Convention. Big mistake!

Parties to UNCLOS

Wikipedia identifies countries like the US which never signed and ratified the convention and are not party to the current agreement. Ronald Reagan, a Republican, opposed the Law of the Sea Convention in 1982. President Bill Clinton, signed the 1994 agreement, yet we are not a party to the Convention.

Other counties that are not party to UNCLOS include Iran, Israel, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea, Turkey and Libya. The reasons for the US not joining, are summarized on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

It is interesting that President Bush, a Republican, was in favor of joining the Convention. Other organizations like the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying group for the oil industry, were in support of joining UNCLOS.

On March 18, Trump lashed out at NATO and European leaders for not supporting the US in the attack on Iran. The idea that the bombing of Iran was in response to an “imminent threat” to the US is a lie. We’ve seen this before. Take action first and if it doesn’t pan out like we thought, invent a justification for our act.

Of course, Ukraine worries about ‘losing the Americans’ as global attention shifts to the war in the Middle East. Russia is an imminent threat to Ukraine. And the fall of Ukraine would mean the end to self-rule of 33 million people. Russia strategy is to bleed Ukraine dry by destroying their infrastructure, with a focus on energy.

Ukraine worries about ‘losing the Americans’ as global attention shifts to the war in the Middle East

Also from the BBC, President Zelensky stated that Donald Trump was not on any side of the war:

Ukraine faces missile shortage due to Middle East war, says Zelensky

I particularly like Zelensky’s comment:

“The regimes in Russia and Iran are brothers in hatred and that is why they are brothers in weapons,” Zelensky said. “And we want regimes built on hatred, to never, never win in anything. And we want no such regime to threaten Europe or our partners.”

Russia will continue to buy drones and other equipment from Iran. And of course, Iran needs the money. After the bombing stops, Iran will continue to fund the Revolutionary Guard. Why? Because the current government wants to stay in power, and the Revolutionary Guard has all the weapons. Iran will continue to be a radical, authoritarian controlled country.

On March 17, the Director of National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned. He strongly disagreed with Trump, that Iran posed an imminent threat to the US. He reported to the Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Security. Joe Kent had many years serving in the US military, In his resignation letter, he wrote:

“… it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

I believe Donald Trump saw Joe Kent on Fox News, and he looked good, so he tapped him for this very important position. Plus, Kent supported the idea that the 2020 election was rigged. I’ve included his biography at the end of this blog.

Trump made it clear in his news conference that he will only supply weapons to Ukraine that they pay for. So, this forced Zelensky to beg for a loan from the European Council. It is a big loan (103 billion dollars) . The President of Hungary, Viktor Orban, is holding up the loan.

EU leaders slam Hungary’s Orban for blocking Ukraine aid package

Orban agreed on the loan in December, last year. Then a missile attack hiit the Druzhba pipeline, which supplied Russian oil to Hungary. Zelensky promised the pipeline would be repaired and the EC would help. It did not stop Orban from using his veto to stop the loan. Orban says the pipeline is already in service.

Viktor Orban is an extreme right wing and corrupt politician. He faces re-election in April. He is a strong supporter of Donald Trump. And Trump endorsed his re-election.

While the rest of the country is focused on Iran and increasing gas prices, I will continue to follow the events in Ukraine. It is certainly a very interconnected world we live in and I fear that policy decisions in Washington, are made without full consideration of the consequences.

More clearly, Putin and Orban pose a real threat to Europe. the thought of 33 million people, who are defenders of democracy, and proud to be Ukrainians, overun by a brutal dictator, Vladimir Putin, really worries me. Ukraine deserves better.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump endorses Prime Minister Viktor Orban for Hungary’s April election

Viktor Orban

Joe Kent

Donald Trump exact words, “What the hell happened to him?” in response of Putin’s massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine, many of them targeting civilians in Kyiv.

Answer: Nothing. If anyone has been paying attention to Putin in the last, at least 15 years, his attack is absolutely consistent with his objective of total control of Ukraine. Trump’s former ambassador to Ukraine could have easily told him, but of course she quit, saying Trump just wanted to appease Putin. Ambassador Brink wrote: “I just came home to Michigan from three years in the toughest job of my life ― serving as the American Ambassador to Ukraine ― supporting our democratic ally against brutal, unprovoked aggression by Russia.” Excellent.

Trump considers himself master of the deal. His overblown ego constantly gets in the way of making proper decisions. Always up front, is appearances, or exactly how to support an image of someone who gets things done.

Getting really in the way is the MAGA rhetoric, which boils down to everyone in the world is taking advantage of us. China is ripping us off. The European Union is another hostile entity, design to undermine the US competitive advantage. So, Trump’s initial attack against Zelensky, as just another hustler, misusing billions of dollars of our assistance, is falling short of reality.

“One size fits all” is probably the best line, of the chief defect in Trump’s policies. See article below:

MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe

The Ukraine needs military and humanitarian aid, to survive. It is hard for Trump to see the bigger picture. His mind is still embedded in marketing and real estate deals, where the big fish triumph. But not by bombing!

Military assistance can in the short run, ruin a president’s popularity. We have no boots on the ground, but billions of dollars are needed to defend against Russia’s aggression. Trump can sound compassionate about “ending the bloodshed” but what he wants is to end the flow of billions of US dollars to defend Ukraine. The popularity of Truman and Bush, Jr sank as the Korean and Iraqi wars dragged on. Approval ratings of Truman and Bush dropped to record lows of 22 and 25%, respectively, according to Gallup polls.

“The worst kind of foreign commitments from Trump’s perspective are military alliances. They make no sense to him, as the US is bound to protect countries that are too weak to defend themselves. These “weakling” states, meanwhile, thrive and compete economically with their protector.” Trump’s transactional mindset, is that if we are backing a country to defend it, we ought to be getting something in return.

I was glad to see Ukraine and the US sign the minerals deal. It will survive as long as Ukraine and Zelensky survive. The continuation of military and humanitarian assistance is vital. But, this means a 180 turn for Trump and a simple understanding that Russia is the invader, and the best chance for Ukraine to survive, is with Zelensky. It means supporting a long defensive war until Putin realizes he can’t win, is in the best interests of the US.

Will Trump finally come to Ukraine’s side and work again with European democracies? It’s happened before. The stock market’s recent reaction to bold tariff’s announcements, is to cling to the “taco” belief, that Trump always chickens out.

Stay tuned,

Dave

I call it the return shot. The US declares tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China exports. They all react with tariffs against US exports. That’s retaliation. It is so predictable. Now, Trump sees this, and declares that there will be added US retaliation tariffs. So, just guess what happens next. A second full round of pain for all.

“Tariffs are actually, we’ve had a lot of experience with them. They’re an act of war, to some degree,” Buffett said in an interview with CBS News that aired on Sunday.

Warren Buffet is 94 years old, and an incredibly successful investor, with a net worth of 160 billion dollars. Most economists are with Buffet. Countries react as if they are attacked. Not much is accomplished.

And as I wrote in my last posting, Trump’s whole basis for tariffs is a lie, that we are making our trading partners pay for their unfair trading practices. The tariffs are past to consumers. So, it is inflationary to us and our trading partners.

When asked about tariffs’ impact on inflation, the 94-year-old Berkshire Hathaway chairman was blunt: “Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” He added economists should always ask, “And then what?”

The “… then what?” is more of the same, more pain and unfortunately, from Donald Trump, a whole series of lies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

As of 5:30 am, Donald Trump seems to have won 5 of the 7 swing states, which are AZ, GA, NC, NV and PA. Alaska has not yet reported, but Trump will win Alaska as it is a solid Red state. If I include Alaska in Trump’s totals, he now has 269 EV, one vote short of victory.The two big wins are PA and GA.

Stay tuned,

Dave

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend” Ancient proverb

It was in the news recently, that Nicaragua has recognized Afghanistan, run by the Taliban. Their ambassador is Michael Campbell. It was announced by their Vice President, Rosario Murillo. The only other country to appoint an ambassador to Afghanistan is China.

It was weird. For all it’s human rights violations, Nicaragua is highly supportive of women’s rights, while Afghanistan under the Taliban with their autocratic, radical islamic edicts ignores women’s rights. First, Afghanistan:

Among the dozens of gender-based decrees imposed by the Taliban emir, Hibatullah Akhundzada, some of the most damaging have been edicts banning women and girls from attending public secondary schools and universities. Women have also been impeded from working for the UN and NGOs [Non Government Agencies], while other rulings have blocked them from going to parks, public baths, gyms and beauty salons.

Every year that goes by, young women are deprived of basic education. Compare this with Nicaragua (from Wikipedia):

When it comes to gender equality in Latin America, Nicaragua ranks high amongst the other countries in the region.[1] When it came to global rankings regarding gender equality, the World Economic Forum ranked Nicaragua at number twelve in 2015, while in 2016 it ranked tenth, and in 2017 the country ranked sixth.[1] Nicaragua was amongst the many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean to ratify the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, which aimed to promote women’s rights.[2]

The announcement was not made by Daniel Ortega, but his wife Rosario Murillo, who was elected vice president in 2017. Many suspect she is running the show right now.

See link: Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega establishes diplomatic ties with the Taliban

The link below from El Pais, gives further insight on the communality of these two very different countries, which is the goal of absolute control of the populace. In Nicaragua, the continuance of Ortega-Murillo will depend on the full repression of any dissent. So, in both Afghanistan and Nicaragua, the people can hear only what the government wants them to hear. The reality on the ground is very different.

See link: A ‘tropicalized Taliban regime’ and a family succession plan underway: Ortega and Murillo radicalize repression in Nicaragua

President Daniel Ortega has ruled Nicaragua since 2006. He is 78 years old. As explained in the above link, “All signs indicate that Laureano Ortega Murillo, the opera-loving son of the presidential couple, is next in line.”

I think we’ve seen this before. Or at least similar in North Korea, as Kim Jung II died in 2011, and his son, Kim Jung Un became president for life.

Per Wikipedia:

Since Daniel Ortega’s election in 2006, liberal democratic norms and individual rights in practice have deteriorated. Parties other than the ruling FSLN have been repressed through arbitrary arrest and detention of opposition candidates and activists. Most government jobs de facto require membership in the FSLN. Opposition media has been repressed through arrests of journalists and seizure of broadcasting and printing materials.

On Aug 22, Nicaragua again went totally counter their best interest (or at least the interest of their people) and closed the US Chamber of Commerce and 150 other organizations.

Per link below: “On Monday, Ortega decreed that 1,500 organizations, mostly religious and including churches, be closed. Officially, the government said they had not correctly reported their financial statements to the government.”

Another excellent quote from this new story: “They’re shooting themselves in the foot with a shotgun,” he said, noting that the government is reducing public spending and now will lose the jobs those organizations created.

See link: Nicaragua closes US Chamber of Commerce and 150 other organizations

I would call it, self inflected wounds, to shut down organizations which really give assistance to the needy, plus improve the economy in general. Agricultural trade, mainly coffee, and tourism drives the Nicaraguan economy. So, shutting down these organization which help develop the country at a local level, makes no sense, unless the aim is to control everything (and everybody) from Managua.

So, Nicaragua in many ways will follow the model of Afghanistan, Cuba, Belarus, Iran, Russia , North Korea and China, which are designed to help only the rulers, or the party in charge, not the people.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump has attacked NATO, which without it, Ukraine would have long been taken over by Russia. He has attacked climate change, and withdrew our participation in the Paris Accords, in which we can take a leadership role in reducing the world’s dependence on non-renewable resources. He sees climate change as a hoax. He will gut the IRA, which will be a huge setback for Biden’s initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions.

He and the Trump organization have no respect for the law. He claims the charges against him are baseless. But, every time he goes to court he loses. It is because prosecutors can present irrefutable evidence. He loses on appeal.

His dishonesty is astounding. I don’t think any one can tell more lies in a single rant than Trump. On his social media site, in front of a courthouse or at his rallies, it’s non-stop falsehoods. He is detached from truth.

In the coming months, I will make the case why Trump must not be our next president. Your comments, even to the contrary will be posted. If there is a particular issue for the 2024 election you would like me to explore further, please let me know.

Stay tuned,

Dave