This will be the last year of this blog site. In the remaining months, I will look for stories which receive less attention by the media. I’ve got a few topics already begun.
If there is a particular issue of interest, I would like to know. I can’t guarantee that I will be able to prepare a blog on each topic.
There are also the like button, to tell me it is a topic of interest.
Stay tuned,
Dave
I love to travel. I’ve done a lot of it, for business and pleasure.
I am forgetful. It is much easier traveling with my wife, as she is mindful of the stuff I forget. It is also very nice to travel with family who bring extra stuff.
Many people cite health and safety reasons for staying at home. I think exploring the world keeps you young. Well most of the world. Don’t go to Libya right now. See US State Department warnings:
“Terrorist groups continue plotting attacks in Libya. Violent extremist activity in Libya remains high, and extremist groups have made threats against U.S. government officials and citizens. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, hotels, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, and government facilities.”
Covers a lot. If you do go to Libya, it is important to dress down. Of course, in two seconds, folks will know you are not from there. But, if thieves have to chose between a well dressed tourist, and a dirty tee-shirt guy, they will go for the former any day of the week. Tripoli has some really good seafood, but I still recommend letting things cool off for a while. The US consulate has been shut down since 2014, usually not a good sign for safety conscience people.
Documents like visas are important. I’ve learned from experience. Credit cards are super important. An unlocked cellphone is very nice for foreign travel.
For any travel, a positive attitude is important. If you are in a plane about to crash, don’t start talking how it was a mistake to go on the super cheap airlines (“yeah I knew there was a catch”) and instead, talk about how having seats way in the back means that you have nothing to fear. Of course, this works only if you actually have seats way in the back.
People who value comfort have problems traveling from a place with good weather to one with bad weather. This is a negative travel gradient. For example, when I went from Miami to Boston in December, there was a 50 degree change, from 75 degrees to 20 degrees F, definitely going in the wrong way comfort-wise. But visiting family and good food (I made some of it) made up for this, and I hated to leave.
That’s about it. Travel is good and staying home isn’t.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Ukraine’s President Zelensky has often stated that if Russian aggression does not stop at Ukraine, more countries will be invaded or will become Russian puppets because they fear the military presence of Russia. I agree, and it is the smaller and more unstable countries to go first. It will not necessarily be countries that lie on their borders. There are a number of smaller countries in Africa, which for the right price can be bought off.
Transnistria is a region on the southeastern border of Moldova. It is a breakaway state from Moldova, occupying a narrow strip of land on the Moldova-Ukraine border. Its capital is Tirispol. The Council of Europe considers the territory to be under military occupation by Russia. It is internationally recognized as a part of Moldova, but it is independent in many aspects. Per Wikipedia:
“Transnistria is an unrecognised but de facto independent presidential republic with its own government, parliament, military, police, postal system, currency, and vehicle registration. Its authorities have adopted a constitution, flag, national anthem, and coat of arms. After a 2005 agreement between Moldova and Ukraine, all Transnistrian companies that seek to export goods through the Ukrainian border must be registered with the Moldovan authorities.”
It was created by a ceasefire agreement in 1992, the first year with Yeltsin in office. It is a ceasefire agreement designed to end the violence broke out in 1990. The population of Transnistria is divided, with 29% Russian, 29% Moldovan and 23% Ukrainian. It has a higher percentage of Russians than the rest of Moldova.
Per Wikipedia:
The language laws presented a particularly volatile issue as a great proportion of the non-Moldovan population of the Moldavian SSR did not speak Moldovan (Romanian). … Some described the language laws as “discriminatory” and criticized their rapid implementation. Others, on the contrary, complained the laws were not followed.
Wikipedia Transnistria
Wikipedia Transnistria War
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My concerns that Russia would use unrecognized Transnistria region to attack Ukraine appears to quickly becoming a reality. Putin is using a standard ploy of posing as the defender of Transnistria instead of the invader. This was exactly the same pretext as used a year ago. Russia had to invade the Dunbas region, to defend the populace against the Ukrainian “nazis.”
The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, who wants her country to join the European Union, accused Moscow this month (February 2023) of planning a coup to topple Moldova’s leadership. Moscow denied the allegation. “The Kremlin’s attempts to bring violence to Moldova will not work. Our main goal is the security of citizens and the state. (The Guardian)
What has maintained the peace between Transnistria and Moldova, is the Joint Control Commission, which included both Moldova and Russian troops as a peacekeeping force. Of course, Putin wants to invade Transnistria and control it, and the ceasefire agreement is in his way. Transnistria will be critical to attacking Odesa and controlling the Black Sea ports.
The headline in Reuters, February 24, 2023 read, “Russia told the West on Friday that it would view as an attack on itself any actions that threatened Russian peacekeepers in Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region, one day after Moscow accused Ukraine of planning an invasion.”
Link: Russia warns West over threatening its troops in breakaway Moldovan region
So, Russia now is setting the stage for invading Transnistria (note minor spelling differences) on the absurd pretext of protecting its peacekeeping force of perhaps 1700 troops.
It is a terrible development as Russia is set on expanding the conflict, really just like President Zelensky said he would. Romania is strongly allied with Moldova, in its support of Ukraine. Romania has been part of NATO since 2004.
This small sliver of the breakaway state of Transnistria looks to become a red hot point of contention with Russia acting like they own it.
Stay tuned,
Dave
National Transportation Safety Board does a slow through job of investigation accidents. In the case of Norfolk Southern accident in Ohio, the cause of the accident was so plain to engineers, that they issued a preliminary report and provided a hearing on the accident.
NTSB spokesperson Jennifer Homendy stated during a press conference that this derailment was 100% preventable, and the cause was an overheated wheel bearing. She said:
“We call things accidents. There is no accident. Every single event that we investigate is preventable,” she said. “So our hearts are with you know, that the NTSB has one goal and that is safety and ensuring that this never happens again.”
My last post was about how politicians duck important questions to peddle their own agenda. NTSB is just the opposite and I really like this agency. I also give high marks to the EPA who were onsite hours after the accident.
National Public Radio reports on the spill of vinyl chorides:
“There were no reported fatalities or injuries caused directly by the derailment, and responders were able to mitigate the fire within two days. But rising temperatures in one tank car carrying vinyl chloride — a toxic chemical that grows especially volatile at high temperatures — prompted concerns of an uncontrolled explosion. To prevent that, responders evacuated residents of the immediate area and performed a “release and burn” of five tank cars’ worth of the chemical, some 115,580 gallons.”
The plastic placards marking cars with hazardous materials have also been identified as an area of concern by both Buttigieg and NTSB officials. The fire following the derailment melted the plastic placards, making it difficult for first responders to discern which trains contained dangerous chemicals.”
Link Fox News: NTSB calls Ohio train derailment ‘100% preventable,’ says operators were warned of overheated axle
The overheating warning came too late for the train to safely stop. In the preliminary report, NTSB finds no fault of the operator. The heat sensors probably need to be placed closer together. The increases in temperature of wheel bearings instead of just the temperature estimates should also trigger warnings.
There is also the accusation from Democrats that a rollback in regulations during the Trump administration, could have prevented this accident. The NTSB stated that this is not true as follows:
“The ECP braking rule would’ve applied ONLY to HIGH HAZARD FLAMMABLE TRAINS. The train that derailed in East Palestine was a MIXED FREIGHT TRAIN containing only 3 placarded Class 3 flammable liquids cars.”
Nice. NTSB is just stating facts. But, the Department of Transportation is likely to make stricter regulations on this more dangerous trains.
There is a lot more work to be done, by the various federal agencies. Many local water wells need to be tested. Norfolk Southern is cooperating and working with residents to test their water. I like the fact that the various agencies are staffed by professional career specialists who do not descend into the political fray.
Stay tuned,
Dave
On October 24, 2022, Alina Habba joined MAGA, Inc. Per Bloomberg News:
“One of former President Donald Trump’s top lawyers has taken on a role as senior adviser for his new political action committee, pressing his MAGA message even as she defends him in a series of high-stakes lawsuits. Alina Habba, who represents Trump in the suit filed by New York’s attorney general over his asset valuations, has joined the MAGA Inc. team as it spends millions on ads to support Trump’s endorsed candidates in key midterm races.”
The above screenshot of Alina Habba is from NewsMax, where she was being interviewed by Sean Spicer. Sean Spicer has written several books since leaving the White House, all of which I assume are very favorable to Trump. She has an office close to Trump’s golf course and resort in Bedminister, NJ. Very convenient.
Link: Wikipedia, Alina Habba
Attorney Habba filed a civil lawsuit for Donald Trump and on January 19, 2023, Judge Middlebrooks ordered sanctions against Trump and Habba totaling $938,000. In my last posting, I summarized many of the Judge’s comments. They were not kind to Ms. Habba. Thus, Alina Habba got her 15 minutes of fame, appearing on Fox News, sending Twitter messages, etc. And for Donald Trump, it’s just another day at the office, or really running for President.
In the week that followed, two lawsuits against NY Attorney General Letitia James as filed by Alina Habba were withdrawn. Why? First, I assume that these lawsuits had zero chance of winning in court, because Trump would never allow a lawsuit that even had a one in a million chance of winning, to be withdrawn. It wasn’t every going to great news coverage, because it would remind people that AG James is suing Trump for a hefty 250 million dollars and her case is proceeding well.
Link: Trump drops appeal, ending legal fight against New York Attorney General Letitia James
Attorney Habba is worried about being disbarred, plain and simple. Sean Hannity isn’t about to invite her back to explain why she lost in court. Neither will Sean Spicer at NewsMax. When her conspiracy case got so obliterated by Judge Middlebrooks, there isn’t much to say unless you want to blame the entire legal system. They tend to be interested in facts over allegations. Trump can go on, and blame it all on the judge.
The judge added that Mr. Trump’s use of the courts had helped to undermine the public’s confidence in them. “A continuing pattern of misuse of the courts by Mr. Trump and his lawyers undermines the rule of law, portrays judges as partisans and diverts resources from those who have suffered actual legal harm,”
The four lawyers which were initially sanctioned by Judge Middlebrooks are: Alina Habba, Michael T. Madaio, Peter Ticktin and Jamie Alan Sasson, were assessed $50,000 penalties, plus $16,000 to cover the legal fees paid by one of the defendants. I believe these sanctions are being appealed.
More on Habba’s law firm:
Link from Nov 2021: Trump turns to small N.J. law firm for latest lawsuits
One of the other lawyers sanctioned by Judge Middlebrooks is Peter Ticktin, whose law office is in Deerfield Beach, Florida. Tinkin is 76 years old, and was a classmate of Donald Trump at the New York Military Academy. See link:
Link from Daily Beast: Trump’s New Lawyer Has Been Fawning Over Him Since High School
Peter Ticktin even wrote a book documenting his love of Trump: What Makes Trump Tick: My Years with Donald Trump from New York Military Academy to the Present.
Finally, I can understand how those in the legal profession are tempted to use their power of persuasion to enter into politics. I mean they have years of experience in advocacy and oratory. The difference in court, you have opposing counsel, always there to check your facts And of course, a judge to examine both sides of an issue.
There are discipline ethic boards for attorneys, such as Rudy Giuliani, John Eastman and perhaps Alina Habba, who went way too far, for their clients.
Stay tuned,
Dave
People involved in the violence of January 6 need to go to jail. I don’t ever want our Capital police to be afraid of a mob. One death of a police officer and over 150 people injured. Unfortunately, some of those who stormed the Capital, were thinking they were patriots and doing something in the national interest. A patriot does not break the law and threaten police. There have been 884 individuals arrested. There is a constitutional right to assemble and protest, but violence can never be condoned.
People involved in the planning of the storming of the Capital and other activities aimed at illegal actions to overturn our elections, need to be tried and go to jail. I hope the efforts of the Department of Justice will result in convictions of the top echelons in the Trump campaign organizers.
Those individuals who think subpoenas for documents and testimony are optional, will need time to rethink their decision behind bars. That includes Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon. I’d like to see more convictions.
Others will suffer the consequences of making false claims in court by actions taken by Dominion voting machines. This includes Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani. These are civil cases, which are tough to prove. Rudy Giuliani’s law license has been suspended in New York, and similar proceedings are occurring in Washington.
Whether Donald Trump or his closest allies will be charged with crimes, remains to be seen. The latest scandal is the apparent erasing of text messages by the Secret Service, and likely connected to the leadership in Homeland Security. Obstruction of justice is a criminal offense.
New laws need to be enacted, so there is not the slightest doubt that State legislatures can never override the outcome of elections. Claims of election fraud are always serious, and the courts are the proper place to address any irregularities. After the Safe Harbor date of December 8 has passed, lawsuits which challenge the results are frivolous
Within new laws, the role of the Vice President on January 6 should be made absolutely clear, his role is strictly ceremonial.
New laws will not be enough. The electorate needs to help clean house. Yes, “Drain the Swamp” if you like the phrase. I have a long list of Senators and Congress representatives who I’d like to see gone after their election.
The January 6 committee has shown us so clearly that Donald Trump did not care at all for the orderly transition of government or respect for decision of the electorate. Mike Pence did what every Vice President has done. He stood at inauguration day with President Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
The White House was an open door to people who had no respect for the rule of law. The President sat there on December 18, while “outside advisors” (aka, the crazies) suggested he fire his entire staff, and direct the military to seize voting machines. This was simply to stop the next administration from being sworn in on Jan 20. His actions immediately after this meeting, was to tell everyone to come to the Capital on January 6, because “it’s going to be wild.”
The message was clear, that although the electorate had spoken, Trump had no reservations on breaking the law, so he could stay in power. This is by definition a planned coup. He nearly fired the acting Attorney General, Jeffrey Rosen, because he would not sign a memo to be sent to Georgia, filled with false statements on election fraud.
Trump and his supporters encouraged a riot that they knew would be violent. This was brought out so clearly in the hearing as Trump’s security detail wanted metal detectors to protect the president, but he did not, as he said these were “his people.” He targeted his own vice president in his speech on January 6.
A good first step, would be the “firing” by the electorate on election day of the coup supporters, namely Rep. Pat Gosar, Senator Ted Cruz, Rep. Jody Hice, Rep. Josh Hawley. Rep Mo Brooks, Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene, Rep. Scott Perry and Rep. Louis Gohmert.
Of course, it is not who is voted out, but who comes in to replace this group of election deniers. We need senators and representatives who strongly believe we settle our differences at the ballot box.
Stay tuned,
Dave
https://ballotpedia.org/Counting_of_electoral_votes_(January_6-7,_2021)
The dissolution of the USSR from November 1988 to December 1991 created 15 recognized new republics, including Russia and Ukraine. The only way to understand modern Russian history, is to start in 1985, with the election of Mikhail Gorbachev and his efforts to liberalize the USSR including free speech and the right to assembly. From 1986 to 1987, open protests to the Soviet rule occurred in Latvia, Kazakhstan, Armenia and other Republics. Independence occurred first in the Balkan states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). By 1988, Gorbachev was losing control in both the Baltic and Caucasus states. January 22, 1989 is independence day for Ukraine.
Chechnya independence from Russia and a more liberal government has failed. Today, Ramzan Kadyrov is Russia’s puppet leader in Chechnya. He fought on the side of Russia in the second Chechen war. He is currently a Lieutenant General in Russia’s military. He has become rich, with the help of Russia. He owns a Lamborghini Reventón, one of only 20 sold. He supports Putin, and sends Chechen military whenever Putin wants – to Syria, Georgia and now Ukraine. Kadyrov stated that his troops were not injured in Ukraine. It is very likely that many have died in combat.
Per Wikipedia:
“Kadyrov rules the Chechen Republic through despotism and repression. Over the years, he has come under criticism from international organisations for a wide array of human rights abuses under his watch, with Human Rights Watch calling the forced disappearances and torture so widespread they constituted crimes against humanity. During his tenure, he has advocated restricting the public lives of women, and led anti-gay purges in the Republic. Ramzan Kadyrov has been frequently accused of involvement in the kidnapping, assassination, and torture of human rights activists, critics, and their relatives, within both Chechnya as well as in other regions of the Russian Federation and abroad, through the political use of police and military forces. He publicly denies these accusations.”
How Ramzan Kadyrov came to power
Chechnya sought independence along with the other republics while Gorbachev was in power, but things went horribly wrong. Chechnya declared its independence in November 1991. Perhaps a bit too late, as Boris Yeltsin took office in July 1991 and was against Chechnya’s independence.
Ramzan Kadyrov fought with his father Akhmad, during the first Chechen war (1994 to August 1996) against Russia. They won independence with the peace treaty in 1997, during the time Boris Yeltsin was President.
Following their victory, Chechnya had a weak government, which failed to unite the country. They lapsed into a failed state. Chechen warlords had been steadily increasing abductions and raids into other parts of the Northern Caucasus. In place of the devastated economic structure, kidnapping emerged as the principal source of income countrywide, procuring over $200 million during the three-year independence of Chechnya. (See Wikipedia link)
Russia invaded Chechnya for a second time in August 1999. This began a 10 year war for control of Chechnya, largely conducted during Putin’s regime. The initial phase ended quickly with the direct rule of Chechnya in May 2000. According to Wikipedia:
But by the autumn of 1999, Akhmad Kadyrov – a leading figure in the resistance movement – decided to abandon the insurgency and offered his support to the Russian federal forces in the Second Chechen War. Aslan Maskhadov immediately fired him from the Chief Mufti chair, although this decree was never accepted by Akhmad Kadyrov, who abdicated himself a few months later due to his civilian chairman career. According to James Hughes, Akhmad Kadyrov’s U-turn may have been motivated partly by personal ambition and partly by a concern with the desperate condition of the Chechen population, and was also driven by a fear of the growing sectarian Wahhabi influence on the insurgency.[6]
Akhmad became Putin’s administrative leader in Chechnya during the time of the insurgency. In May 2004, he was assassinated by Chechen Islamists. His son, Ramzan, was too young to be president. The Ukrainian Constitution required the president to be at least 30 years old. In 2007, Ramzan became president.
Ramzan’s Wealth, paid for by Putin
Foreign aid is usually given to governments to help its people. In the case of Chechnya, it goes straight into Ramzan Kadyrov’s pocket. According to Wikipedia:
“The Russian Federation funnels money to the Kadyrov family. The distinction between the Chechen government and Kadyrov are blurred.[23] In 2015, Chechnya received around 57 billion roubles a year from Moscow (about £550m).[23] The family gets money through the Akhmad Kadyrov Fund, a non-transparent foundation headed by Kadyrov’s mother, Ayman.[23]
In 2011, the foundation (which describes itself as a charity) funded Kadyrov’s lavish 35-year birthday party, which featured celebrities such as Seal, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Vanessa-Mae and Hilary Swank.[261][23] Journalists have been targeted by Kadyrov’s regime for reporting on his opulence.[262]
Kadyrov is a noted collector of sports cars. He owns a Lamborghini Reventón, one of only 20 sold.[263][264] He is known for his extensive collection of Chechen daggers.[265][266] When journalist Marianna Maksimovskaya asked him where the money for the live-televised celebration was coming from, he reportedly laughed and said “Allah gives it to us”, before adding: “I don’t know, it comes from somewhere.” Kadyrov has also been linked to the ownership of a private jet.
Kadyrov’s family members own luxurious real estate in Moscow. Two of his wives own property valued at $8 million in total, which is more than twice Kadyrov’s declared salary since 2008.”
In Support of Putin’s War
His latest claim is that he is in Ukraine, fighting along side of the Russians. See link from the Guardian. Of course, he just wants to impress Putin, rather than do what is in the best interest for Ukraine. He will undoubtedly be sending more Chechens to fight along side the Russian troops.
I can only sympathize with the poor Chechens who have been sent to fight in Ukraine on the side of the invading army.
See much more information in the links provided below.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Links:
Al Jazeera: Chechen leader, a Putin ally, says his forces deployed to Ukraine
Wikipedia: Ramzan Kadyrov
Wikipedia: Akhmad Kadyrov
The Guardian: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov says he is in Ukraine
Oh no, this question again. It is very convenient to blame the current administration. Or Opec.
Sometimes in polite company, it is bad to know too much. “I paid $40 to fill up my tank, so don’t you think it’s too much?” Ok, the correct answer is “yes, you poor dear,.” even though I know better. People compare what it cost to fill up a gas tank now verses a week ago. No one compares what it cost to fill up a tank now compared to 2013 or 2014. Or the price of gasoline in 1981.
A recent Facebook post compared economic measures from October 2020 to October 2021, and showed almost everything improving, such as higher salaries, lower unemployment, and higher stock market prices which for many Americans mean their retirement plans are gaining value.
No question about it- the price of gas at the pump has risen significantly from October 2020 to today. In October 2020, gasoline on average was $2.248/gallon and in October 2021, the cost was $3.384/gallon, a gain of 51%.
A 50% change in gasoline prices isn’t that unusual. Gas prices dropped in half during the economic crisis which began in 2008. What really drove the economic crisis was new forms of lending, which allowed people to buy homes, without adequate income or assets. Gasoline prices dropped nearly in half from around 2014 to 2016 as offshore drilling and fracking became commercially viable. Improved drilling technology allowed offshore gas and oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico to be drilled in much deeper water, and highly deviated or horizontal wells became common. Subsea completions allowed for more rapid development, and reduced the front end expense.
It took just 3 years following the 2008 housing crash for gasoline prices to get in the $3.80 to $4.00/gallon. The declining prices from 2012 to 2016 were due to increased oil prices due to fracking and deep water drilling Fracking really dried up in 2016 due to low oil prices. The companies involved in fracking can postpone the completion of wells to cut costs. This is a desperate measure because they don’t get the benefit of new production. Offshore developments are on a much longer timeframe, from discovery to initial production from 5 years or more, so they do not react as quickly to lower oil prices.
These boom to bust and back to boom cycles will continue. Nobody in 2016 was complaining that oil prices had dipped below $2.00/gallon except the oil industry, which needed to make large investments to maintain their supply of oil. It was the cheapest oil had been in 8 years, during a couple of months at the worst moments of the housing crash. Or the lowest gas had been since 2005.
We haven’t defeated Covid but travel and businesses are returning to normal. If I remove the 2007 to 2008 housing bubble, the 2008 to 2009 housing crash/recession, and the Covid-19 economic crash and early recovery, the trend become a bit clearer.
So, the first upward trendline goes from 2002 when gas cost about $1.20/gallon to 2014, when it hit about $4.00/gallon. From 2014 to 2016, technology increased production and the oil glut simply reset the trendline back to $2.00/gallon by 2016, then we were back on the same trendline.
In fact, it is very rational to believe oil prices should go up with time over the long run, because the worldwide supply of oil is limited. It is increasingly more expensive to find more oil. Economic turmoil seems to temporarily reverse the upward trend. I know world leaders are gathered in Glasgow to cut fossil fuels consumption. So, should alternative fuels become more popular, then oil prices should go down. At present, the electric vehicles account for 1.7% of all cars sold, so we have a long ways to go.
Oil prices will be influenced by many factors including the policies of OPEC and the global economy. It seems anything above about $60/barrel for crude oil, results in increased fracking for oil and gas. We are now around $83/barrel.
So, I understand the higher prices are painful. But, longer term prices will result in more production, and people choosing either buying EV’s or fuel efficient cars. This can, in the long term, reverse the trend.
The graph above starts at 1993. If I go back to 1981, gasoline cost $3.88/gallon after adjusting for inflation. So are gasoline prices too high? They are really pretty much on the same trend as pre-Covid. Will we hit a peak, then a decline as more production comes on line? Maybe not. Added production may lower the slope of the trendline, or in other words, slow the pace of increases.
In general, gasoline prices increase when oil prices go up, but it is not always in synch. I will discuss oil prices and production in the next blog.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Links:
On July 31, 2021 there were 78,433 new Covid-19 cases based on the 7-day average. I use the 7 day average because it tends to smooth out the data. Presumably, for some states, when the daily data hasn’t been completely tallied, the state simply doesn’t report the daily data until the next day. On June 24, 2021, things look good with 11,662 new cases using 7 day averaging. A six fold increase in about 40 days. What happened? The delta variant for one. A slowing vaccination rate for another.
More opening up, relaxed masking regulations, and just people getting out and around for another. I was in a very crowded Miami airport. Although I was wearing a mask. I took it off to get a snack. Masks don’t really offer much protection to oneself as much as to cut down the chance of transmission to others. This is the logic of requiring everyone to wear a mask indoors.
As a country, I don’t think our goal should be some arbitrary value of % vaccinated, like 70 to 80%. It should be zero new cases, and we will see zero hospitalizations and zero deaths. That’s the long term goal, because the rest of the world is far behind in getting vaccinated.
It is well documented that the Delta variant is much more contagious. Fully vaccinated people can be infected with this variant, but getting vaccinated is still incredibly important, as it reduces the chance of hospitalization and improves the chance of recovery.
Nobody ever claimed that vaccines were perfect. The take away message from the surge in new cases is everyone should get vaccinate. There is a small group of people who have allergic reactions to vaccines. They need to consult their doctors prior to being vaccinated.
I live in Florida, and the trend on new cases is definitely bad. The more reliable values are the 7 day average which show 15,818 new cases. I suspect the daily number is really two days of data. The lowest was June 18 with 1499 new cases (7-day avg), so an astounding 10 times increase in around 43 days.
I’ve seen similar increases in many other states including Missouri, Louisiana and Arkansas. I have not seen dramatic increases in Covid deaths, but usually these increases show up weeks after the new cases spike.
What to do? Get vaccinated for one. Accept for now tighter regulations regarding masking. Avoid large indoor gatherings where some may be unvaccinated.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Hospitals in Brazil and India are filled to capacity. In Brazil, the number of new cases is about 61,000 (7-day rolling average). It is the last place you would expect vaccines to be produced for export to other countries. So, I would say the Covid-19 crisis in Brazil is terrible and a bit bizarre.
Brazil’s Anvisa agency rejected the Sputnik V vaccine developed by Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute. Anvisa in Brazil is like the FDA in the US, as it must approve all vaccines. Brazil was expected to receive 30 million doses.
Yahoo news reports, “União Quimica’s facility in São Paulo has been certified by Anvisa for good production practices and the Gamaleya vaccine will be made for export to countries that have approved it, said CEO and founder Fernando Marques.” I suspect the vaccine will be shipped to Mexico and Argentina. It is approved in India, and I’m sure they can’t wait to receive additional shipments.
The vaccine is claimed to be 91% effective. The Russian vaccine has been approved in 62 countries. The vaccine was really the first one to be approved, in August 2020, beating out Moderna and Pfizer. Russia was criticized for giving approval without sufficient Phase III trials, where the effectiveness could be reviewed by scientists around the world.
The European Medicines Agency is currently inspecting the manufacture of the Russian vaccine in Europe. I believe the Agency will give approval shortly, and this will make it easy for all European countries to approve.
The Russian vaccine is an Adenovirus vector vaccine, as are other approved vaccines: J&J, Oxford/AstraZeneca and Cansino. In the manufacture of the vaccine, the DNA of another virus (not Covid) so it can not replicate, but is capable of eliciting an immune response. The link below describes the vaccine as containing viral particles, which invades the cells and passes on specific instructions to the cells to build spike proteins. So these cells have enough in common with Covid, to get the immune system to defend against Covid. Very clever these scientists.
Anvisa rejection seems based more on the manufacturing of the vaccine, rather the science behind it. They claim that the batches of vaccine they examined contained replication-competent adenovirus. I’m stopping right here, because the scientists can battle this one out. It may be that some people getting the vaccine will have a mild cold, but they will nevertheless be protected from Covid.
The proof is in the pudding, as the saying goes. In Latin America, Mexico and Argentina have administered about 7 million doses, while over 12 million people in Russia have received the shot (see link from Wall Street Journal).
Anvisa was forced by a Supreme Court decision to rule on the requests of 10 states in Brazil for the vaccine. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the right wing politics of President Bolsonaro is a real element with this regulatory agency. They have no problem with approving toxic agricultural chemicals, which are banned in Europe.
Bolsonaro claims to be doing everything in his power to combat Covid-19. The solution is not with hydroxychloroquine or even worse ivermectin, but effective vaccines.
It is an appalling contradiction when millions of doses of Gameleya’s vaccine are made in the populous city of São Paulo (11 million residents) and shipped to other countries, when there is a dire need for more vaccines at home. The question remains- has Anvisa dug themselves a hole too deep for themselves get out of? I hope not.
This is a continuing story and I’ll update it as information is available.
Stay tuned,
Dave
,
Links:
Yahoo News: European Medicines Agency experts beginning Sputnik V manufacturing inspections: Official
Science Magazine Blog: Brazil Rejects the Gamaleya Vaccine
Wall Street Journal: Brazil Defends Decision to Reject Russia’s Covid-19 Vaccine, Citing Safety and Efficacy
Brasilwire: With 400,000 Dead, Brazil Regulator Slammed For “Political” Veto Of Russian Vaccine
Bolsonaro advocates freedom (forget lockdowns and social distancing- and still promotes hydroxychloroquine!)
Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19 from US FDA.
We are in a global war against the Covid-19 Pandemic. The safety and effectiveness of the vaccines at this point has been clearly been proven. It is a fact that those countries who have be able to acquire and distribute the vaccines to a high percentage of their populations are seeing the new incidences go dramatically down. It is also a fact that there have been extremely few severe reactions, on the order of one in a million. Over a billion vaccines have been administered worldwide. Medical workers and doctors got first in line with when the shots were available. Every living current and past president have been vaccinated.
Tucker Carlson. with Fox News, is not a journalist. He is a showman. Tucker Carlson promotes doubt rather than fact. This lets Fox News make more money. When he raises a long series of questions, it’s like a cliff hanger- tune in tomorrow as only Tucker can dig down and finally uncover the truth. It’s show biz!
He went way too far with several broadcasts on the vaccines in support those hesitant to be vaccinate. He claimed many more people are have severe reactions or die after taking the vaccine than reported in the mainstream media. Actually, as pointed out by the excellent reporting in the Washington Post, his statistics are just plain wrong because he is using a database, where anyone can report adverse reactions, and the connection to the vaccine is not verified.
This should not be political. Operation Warp Speed was responsible for the rapid development and distribution of Covid-19 vaccines under the Trump administration. Two Covid-19 vaccines were approved for Emergency Use by the FDA under the Trump administration. Trump and his family were vaccinated in January 2021, soon after the vaccines were approved.
Carlson speaks with great conviction. His facts are wrong. And those who watch and believe him, and don’t get vaccinated, may help in the continued spread of the disease. This followers should know better. I call them Tucker suckers, but perhaps Tucker victims is a better term, as some will get Covid-19, end up in the hospital, with very dire consequences, including death.
I know commentators want to impress their audience with “Breaking News,” not heard on other cable news stations. Well there is a reason in this case. Tucker facts are misleading or wrong. Others including commentators on Fox News, have recognized how extreme and reckless his broadcasts have become.
See further support in the links below. I know links from Washington Post may require a subscription, but they frequently allow some free views. CNN response is excellent.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Links:
Washington Post More than 3,283,000 people have died from the coronavirus worldwide
Washington Post, Tucker Carlson’s worst vaccine segment yet
CNN, Tucker Carlson’s Fox News colleagues call out his dangerous anti-vaccination rhetoric
John Oliver on HBO, Humorous as always, but I think he’s right on the mark May 3, 2021, but didn’t stop Tucker Carlson, with more broadcasts.
In Brazil, the daily deaths due to Covid-19 made an all time record, of 2,286 on March 10, 2021. These are people who did not make it out of the hospital. This is four times as many people as four month ago. This is real and it is scary. Brazilian hospitals are overrun with new cases. When hospitals run short of equipment such as ventilators, more people die.
Deaths from Covid-19 in the world are trending down. Only about 1% of the world is fully vaccinated. The US is far head with 10% fully vaccinated. Brazil has fully vaccinated only 1.4%. of its 211 million residents. Note that reports of a 4% level of vaccination for Brazil is based on “one or more” vaccinations rather than the required two shots.
The progress in the world is likely a combination of vaccines plus stricter restrictions on travel and social gatherings in clubs, bars, restaurants, weddings, church sermons and family re-unions. Enforcement of mask wearing rules and social distancing I am certain helped reduce Covid-19 worldwide.
Brazil is going the wrong way in general, with the new record high. I predict by May, they will be averaging 2500 daily deaths, with fewer than 5% of the population fully vaccinated. Brazil accounts for 18% of all deaths from Covid-19 worldwide and may climb to 40% by May, 2021 (2500 in Brazil verses 6000 worldwide).
There is competition in the purchase of vaccines. Brazil is now looking at ways to increase the supply of vaccines from China (see links below), while three months ago, it was hostile to the idea of testing of Chinese vaccines in Brazil in return for additional supplies. The efficacy of Sinovac vaccine (Coronavac) was reported to be only 50%, but it was 70% in preventing moderate to severe cases, which is very good. The severe cases can result in death, particularly among my group (older males). From everything I’ve read, Brazilians are ready to take the vaccine, but the supply is extremely limited.
Because vaccines are never 100% effective, the wearing of masks and social distancing are still required. As long as there is a high rate of new infections, restrictions must stay in effect. Biden last night delivered a powerful speech, in asking the American public to take precautionary measures to prevent a new surge in new infections. Brazil needs to look on how it can best reverse course.
We will get rid of Covid-19 only by everyone’s action in every country in the world. There is no magic pill.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Links:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine-idUSKBN2B21Y8
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biweekly-covid-deaths
(The bi-weekly data chart helps smooth out the data noise).
Thirteen days to go. Time to fix windows and doors and get the Capital ready for January 20, 2021 inauguration day. I want no impeachment inquiry or silly talk of removing Trump by the 25th Amendment. The future of our country is with good leaders from both the Republican and Democrat parties, and this kind of talk is divisive and unproductive.
Some fine Republicans made excellent speeches of how it was high time to acknowledge the winner of the 2020 election because the people had chosen. Mitt Romney rose to the occasion with the simple words of “Let’s tell the people the truth.”
The first three priorities of 2021 must be Covid vaccine, Covid vaccine and Covid vaccine – in that order. Vaccines are the only way out of the health crisis. I live in Florida, and a new virulent strain of Covid-19 is gaining strength. I’ve spend every day searching a place I can make an appointment for a Covid-19 vaccine.
In Florida, I should have priority as I am over 70 years old. But I’m finding it impossible to make an appointment for a vaccination.
Miami-Dade County: Registration is currently closed. Please check back periodically as additional vaccines become available.
Jackson Hospital: We have booked more than 12,000 vaccine appointments. Currently all of our COVID-19 vaccination appointment slots have been filled, and we are not taking any new appointments at this time. Please return to this page routinely for ongoing updates as we receive additional vaccines.
I’ve read the same message for over a week. No Appointments!
Remember how we were promised that 20 million doses by the end of December would be administered in the US. The latest numbers from CDC are that of the 17.3 million doses shipped, only 5.3 million doses have received their first shot. I’m really afraid it is about to get worse, as availability of appointments could drop in half as the returnees for the second shots are given priority.
This should be treated as a national emergency. Donald Trump leaves in 13 days, with a disastrous vaccine rollout program. I am glad that Operation Warp Speed contributed 1.3 billion dollars to AstraZeneca, to produce the best vaccine available. We should be moving heaven and earth to get at least some of their vaccine in the US.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Global warming does not cause hurricanes and forest fires. Yet, it is a significant contributing factor to the extreme weather events like drought, floods, forest fires and hurricanes. The photo on the left, is hurricane Laura and the one on the right is a forest fire in Siberia. I could have made it more local, with a photo of fires in California.
I have to say, my heart went out to the families having to evacuate from their homes in Louisiana. Officials were right to require evacuation. I saw some really wonderful police officers and others helping people on buses. More people die after a hurricane than during this one.
Fires have destroyed 1.4 million acres (2188 square miles) in Northern California and the fires are still not under control.
Watched it on several channels. Liked it best on MSNBC when Raquel Maddow would cut in when she could, to correct blatantly false statements. So what were the worse moments of Day 2 in the Opinion piece in the New York Times:
Mimi Swartz Tough choice, with the recently subpoenaed Eric Trump’s breathlessly praising his tough, incorruptible dad and the former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi’s smearing Biden family members. Runner-up: Mike Pompeo plays politics for Trump on a taxpayer-funded trip to Israel.
** Yes, that Pam Bondi who would not prosecute Trump University.
Héctor Tobar Trump’s signing a pardon and staging a naturalization ceremony, with grateful people of color. These prime-time acts of White House theater were a cynical attempt to erase years of race-baiting and anti-immigrant rhetoric. We haven’t forgotten, Mr. President: You’re still the same man who questioned Barack Obama’s citizenship, praised white supremacists and caged thousands of immigrant children.
** Immigrants are not props.
First Lady Melania Trump generally got the highest praise, as she offered her sympathy to the families who lost loved ones in the Covid-19 pandemic.
Stay tuned,
Dave
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