I will start with Iran. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has played a winning card and oil prices have shot up worldwide. A deal for the US must include opening up the Strait. I believe that Iran will agree to opening the Strait as long as all other conditions of the agreement are satisfied. This of course, will not make Trump happy, as he is famous for agreeing to a deal and then breaking it, claiming the other side has not lived up to the spirit of the deal.

A lot of other more complicated issues can be worked into a deal. Iran will likely not agree to the total elimination of enriched uranium, but I think they would be willing to settle for enrichment limits along the lines of the JCPOA as negotiated by Obama in 2015. This would require inspections.

So, what could US give Iran in return? Very simply, money. This relates to frozen assets, which Iran claims the US owes them. Iran is requesting the upfront release of up to $25 billion in overseas assets frozen by U.S. sanctions. Of course, the US would like a deal where they open the Strait first, and then the payment is left for future negotiations.

It would be an enormous humiliation to Trump, to make a payment. He relentlessly campaigned that Obama’s payment of 1.3 billion dollars was ransom money. It was not. It was a debt originating before 1979 on military equipment bought by Iran for 400 million dollars and never delivered. The interest on the debt came to 900 million dollars.

The other demand of Iran is a halt to the attacks of Lebanon by Israel. Trump is seriously trying to meet Iran’s demand through discussions with Israel.

So, as I see it, it is all about Trump accepting that none of the objectives of the war have been realized, and to get the Strait open, he has to accept the unfreezing of assets. This comes with terrible political consequences for Republicans who backed the war.

Next is Ukraine. Peace will only come when the political powers surrounding Putin, force him to withdraw from Ukraine. They can withdraw to the pre-2022 borders, and agree that Crimea will be part of Russia as it has been since 2014. The idea of a “buffer zone” will not work, and just be the source of new conflicts.

Putin knows that the Russian private economy is in terrible shape absent of the thriving military-industrial complex, from the war effort. I discussed this in my previous blog. So, for the war to end in Ukraine, requires another humiliation this time for Putin. In fact, if he is forced to withdraw troops, he may be forced out at the same time. There will be no deal that includes barring Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump’s great indifference to help fund Ukraine’s survival, I would say is an additional stumbling block.

This is the way I see it. Money is the stumbling block for peace in Iran. Russian withdrawal is the stumbling block for peace in Ukraine. Trump and Putin will have to accept defeat for the wars they caused and can not win.

Stay tuned,

Dave

President Zelensky offered a face-to-face meeting with Putin. Russia rejected this offer as meaningless. As long as Russia’s goal is total control of Ukraine, this meeting was to be for public relations only. Putin want to portray this war as defending their territory (he considers Ukraine belongs to Russia) against NATO powers. He does not want to share a stage with Zelensky.

Ukraine targets St. Petersburg again after Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer for direct talks

So, by suggesting a face-to-face meeting and having Putin reject it, Zelensky can come off as the “peacemaker.”

Ukraine is proving that it can successfully attack deep inside Russia. St. Petersburg is Putin’s hometown, and he is likely furious at Ukraine’s attack. Russian military strategists are likely now looking at a much larger circle of vulnerability in their country. perhaps 1000 km from their eastern border. . The simple strategy of depleting Ukraine’s defenses is now not so easy. If Russia puts all efforts into offense and taking more territory, Ukraine will strike behind the front lines and target everything that supplies the war effort. .

It is essential to understand what Putin seeks to gain from the war as the gains on the battlefield are nominal and supply chains are strained. Economic advisors to Putin are likely busy calculating the trade offs of war verses peace for Russia, and may be advising Putin of dire economic consequences of peace. Very perverse thinking, as peace means Russians not dying on the front lines in Ukraine. But nevertheless, a reality.

The article below, really brings home the point of the peace being an undesirable for the Russian economy, now geared to supplying the needs of military. The term “military-industrial complex” was coined after World War II, but is very applicable to Russia today.

“On one side sits a state-subsidized, demand-guaranteed military-industrial complex, expanding at a pace that would be the envy of any peacetime planner. On the other hand, a civilian economy is slowly hollowing out, starved of labor, capital, and credit.”

and then concludes:

“The military-industrial complex is not simply growing alongside the civilian economy, but is crowding it out.”

Russia’s Economy: Bent Out of Shape

So, if peace broke out with a Russian withdrawal and security needs assured by Western powers, Ukraine’s economy would soar and Russia’s economy would plummet. Ukraine could finally join NATO. And Putin’s reign would be in jeopardy.

A continued war offers little to Putin, if Ukraine can continue getting funding from the West. But peace via a withdrawal of troops brings the risk of economic collapse and enormous humiliation.

So, Zelensky had to make a political gesture, that he wants peace. The best strategy for the US is a total commitment to Ukraine, but Trump is getting more entrenched in the idea of being the peace broker, which has failed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

“All’s fair in love and war” goes the old saying. Yes, there are rules of engagement, and what a country can do to protect itself. International rules of war are rarely followed. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 24, 2022 and many military analysts thought Ukraine wouldn’t last six months, being totally outnumbered by Russia.

There should be no doubt what Russia wants, which is reestablishing total control of Ukraine, and destroying every aspect of an independent Ukraine. .It is estimated that Russia has suffered 1.2 million causalities (killed, wounded or missing) since the war began. It is estimated that 324,000 Russians have been killed. But Putin is undeterred.

The 3-day cease-fire ended officially on Wednesday. And then Putin began the largest attack yet in his desire to destroy Ukraine in multiple cities, with as many as 1,500 drones and missiles, in the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and throughout the country. `

Russia hammers Ukraine in biggest prolonged drone attack since war began

The intent of the massive attacks is to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses. Missiles and drones can be shot down, but it is expensive way to defend the country. The best defense at times, is a good offense, as Ukraine knows well. :

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will “not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes … go unpunished,” and would be “entirely justified” to hit Russia’s oil industry, military production in retaliation for the recent Russian attacks on the country.

Ukraine struck back as it promised:

Massive fire erupts at Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery as Ukrainian drone blitz hits multiple targets, oblasts

Russia claimed this was an attack on Russian civilians, and reported 3 people had been killed and 12 injured.

Bottom line is that Ukraine is able to attack up to 1,000 miles into Russia with drones and hit military targets. Putin is losing ground. The Ukrainians are defending their country the best way they can.

One military expert, who from the very start, understood the resilience and determination of Ukraine, was General Jack Keane, a frequent commentator on Fox News. He calls the war stalemated, and the Russian “peace demands” unreasonable, as Ukraine would have to cede a large part of their country, even parts not under the control of Russia.

Putin will not likely see the war as unwinnable, but leaders in the Kremlin can. Real peace comes when Russia decides to respect the security and sovereignty of Ukraine. Another words, accept defeat. Ukraine belongs to Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

New York Times columnist Marc Santora nailed it, as he wrote:

“Through history, cease-fires have generally been reached after lengthy processes that help warring sides achieve a lasting settlement. But in the war in Ukraine, analysts said, they have become a tool of performative diplomacy, stand-alone commodities used to manage media cycles while the machinery of war grinds along.”

It was just a 3-day cease-fire in the Russian assault of Ukraine. When it ended, Russia made up for lost time with a deadly bombing spree, including missiles, drones and guided bombs.

Trump and Putin are similar, in using cease-fires, as a means to tamping down discontent in their own countries and re-assuring the populace that the conflict would be over soon. The cost of the US attack on Iran, is really incalculable, as vital supplies of oil and fertilizer are stranded in the Straits of Hormuz. As I prepare this posting, a Chinese tanker, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil (value ~ 200 million dollars) is attempting to pass through the straits. There are shortages of both in many countries.

Russia really indiscriminately pounded Ukraine in the last few days, attacking a school and an apartment building, according to the Guardian:

” Zelenskyy said drones were intercepted over several regions but reported damage to energy facilities, apartment buildings, a kindergarten and a civilian locomotive. In Kyiv, debris from a downed drone fell on the roof of a 16-storey residential building in the northern Obolon district, sparking a fire, said the mayor, Vitali Klitschko. Two people were hurt in the central Cherkasy region, and damage was also recorded in the Zhytomyr region, farther west, and in the Chernihiv region on the Russian border.”

The Ukraine war will end only when the powers within the Kremlin realizes they will not succeed in controlling Ukraine. Putin has expanded Russia, making Belarus and Chechnya subservient to Russia. They are hard at work, intervening in Libya and Sudan. The best chance for peace in Ukraine is a total commitment to the Ukraine government.

Jim Cramer has a panel of sound buttons, which is really clever. One is scary noises, and the other is applause. The button that Trump has used and now is totally worn out is: “It will be all over soon.” The US-Iran conflict, which the US started and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (invasion) which Russia started, is not ending soon. To his base, it means just ignore the news.

The chance of achieving any of goals Trump put forward prior to his attack on Iran, is honestly in shambles. The stated that the attack allowed more moderate leaders to take control. Just the opposite really happened. He said Iran’s enriched uranium was wiped out by previous bombing. The closing of the Straits of Hormuz is Iran’s one ace card, to end the war on their terms. They are not going to discard their ace.

So cease-fires are not a prelude to peace, not in Ukraine nor in Iran.

Stay tuned,

Dave

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-truce-trump.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/13/ukraine-war-briefing-deadly-russian-bombing-spree-end-of-ceasefire

Russia’s attack is relentless and brutal. Putin war tactic is pretty simple: Make Ukrainians freeze without energy. Drone attacks are targeting apartments and infrastructure, like power plants.

Putin will never sign a peace agreement that includes security guarentees for Ukraine and withdrawal of his troops. That’s not his aim. He wants the US out of the war, so he can declare victory.

The reality of the war is on the ground with massive drone attacks from Russia, particularly in the south of the Ukraine. This is how they want to seize Kyiv, from the North, East and South.

The rest is hot air. Zelensky is playing along with Trump, that the peace negotiations are promising, and they are “90%” complete. Zelensky needs US support badly.

The latest nonscense came Putin then Trump, that Ukraine had attacked Putin’s home. Well, one of his homes.

“It’s not the right time to do any of that, and can’t do it,” the president said. “And I learned about it from President Putin today. I was very angry about it.”

Wow, that was super dumb response. Any other President would be more cautious, saying that our intelligence agencies would be checking this out.

According to CNN sources, the CIA could find no evidence that this drone attack on Putin’s residence took place.

Link: CIA assesses Ukraine was not targeting a Putin residence in drone attack, contrary to Kremlin claim, sources say

The commentary from CNN, December 3, really nails it, with one single line, “Putin is not looking to buy a hotel.” He is not looking to evict squatters on his property, or adjust property lines. He wants 100% control of Ukraine.

See link: Putin sends Trump’s messengers packing, with eyes on a geopolitical win, CNN Dec 3, 2025

Putin sees Trump as weak. Per the above CNN commentary, “When he [Putin] hears Trump say Ukraine is not his war, that he doesn’t want to waste money on it, and just wants it to end, he hears frailty and disinterest from the world’s biggest military power.”

The commentary goes on, “He [Putin] has reset the Russian industrial complex to a ferocious war footing, and arguably must have as serious a plan to demobilize a now frail, over-stretched nation. In many ways, a continued war is Putin’s best shot at a continued reign.”

Sadly, this is exactly right. And Putin has partners in crime, namely China, North Korea and Iran. And even India finds the benefits of buying Russian oil better than helping Ukraine.

The US should be right now allied with Europe, calling the war for what it is, a Russian invasion.

Stay tuned,

Dave

There is the reality on the ground, and a lot of hot air elsewhere. It is clear that Russia intends to destroy Ukraine’s power sources. The Institute for the Study of War, provides the most detailed update of this strategy. Their update as of December 15 states:

“Russian strikes appear to be advancing the Kremlin’s stated goal of degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s power grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air defense systems and partner support for its drone interceptor development to safeguard itself against increasingly devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure.”

See link: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15-2025/

From the above link, “Russian forces launched 9,298 drones and 270 missiles in October 2025, 5,444 drones and 216 missiles in November 2025, and 2,757 drones and 91 missiles in December 2025 as of December 15.”

Ukraine has counter-attacked with some recent successes. “Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against a Russian submarine for the first time in naval history on the night of December 14 to 15.”

Now, the hot air of the “Peace Talks.” From CNN reporting, “Roughly 90% of the issues between Russia and Ukraine have been solved, one of the US officials said earlier Monday, describing the issue of territorial concessions as a remaining sticking point. The US side offered ‘thought-provoking’ ideas on how to resolve the impasse, the official said, including the development of an ‘economic free zone.'”

So, this is all posturing for political reasons. I believe Russia has little interest in partial control of Ukraine. Trump dislikes long term security alliances, which is essential for Ukrainian security.

Trump says end to Ukraine war closer than ever, but US officials caution security guarantee offers won’t last forever

The invasion in Ukraine through Belarus began on February 4, 2022. Whenever the subject of Ukraine came up during the campaign, Trump had really just two pat answers to almost any question. One we heard a thousand times, and that was “This war would never have happened if I were president.” The second was “I will end the war on day one of my presidency.” Of course, the first statement was designed to put the blame on Biden (or later Harris) for not being tough on Putin. The second one was typical election rhetoric. It was similar to Ted Cruz, which promised to fix all problems on day one.

I’m sorry to say this, but the idea that the peace agreement is 90% done is just Trump administration’s political rhetoric. Per the CNN link below, “There is still no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin actually wants a peace settlement, European and NATO officials have said. “

Ukraine presents response to US peace plan as Trump says European leaders want a meeting

One does not try to attack and destroy the energy infrastructure of a country it seeks to make peace with. Actions speak louder than words. Russia’s intent is to make Ukraine subservient part of Russia with a puppet regime in Kyiv.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Russia claims Ukraine started the war and now is using the US and NATO to escalate or enlarge the war in Ukraine. There was definitely a “Donbas War” between Ukrainian separatists, wanting self rule for the region and Ukrainian military. But the Russian military was supporting the separatists with military troops. This is why Ukraine claims the invasion of Ukraine began in 2014 on their eastern border, and that the invasion on their northern border in February 2022 was an escalation of a war. The evidence from intelligence sources clearly backs up Ukraine’s perspective. The war is not a 3 year conflict, but an 11 year conflict.

War in Donba

The war started in 2014, with the Russians overtly supporting the separtists in eastern Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea in the south. The invasion in 2022 by Russia, made clear that their objective was control of the entire country, by military force. In February 2022, the Russians sent an armored column of tanks from Belarus to Kyiv, to seize the capitol. They failed.

Now, we are in a different phase of the war. There is a saying that “The best defense is a good offense” originated with George Washington in 1799. It is being used by the Ukraine’s military against the Russian attacks on their cities.

Russia has escalated the war, with a massive attack on Ukraine energy infrastructure. As noted in the AP press release, it is Russia’s strategy to increase the pain of war, by cutting off energy sources during the winter.

“Each year, Russia has tried to cripple the Ukrainian power grid before the bitter winter season, apparently hoping to erode public morale. Winter temperatures run from late October through March, with January and February the coldest months.”

Ukraine has retaliated with attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Russia attacks Ukraine’s power grid as Moscow worries over US Tomahawk

Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying energy war brings gas shortages and economic pain

Offense is much cheaper than defense. Drones costing $80,000 are shot down by missiles costing over a million dollars. Ukraine has no option but to defend its country and attack Russia. The Ukrainian offense must be well targeted to military and industrial facilities, because it depends on EU and US support. Russia’s allies (China, North Korea and Iran) don’t have the same humanitarian concerns. They will benefit by manufacturing and selling drones and missiles to Russia.

What Ukraine wants is Tomahawk missiles, which will extend the range of Ukraine’s attacks into Russia, and force Russia to use its military resources to defend itself. Talks between Ukraine and US are ongoing as discussed in the AP article. So this is an escalation of the war, but I see no way to stop it.

I support Trump’s initiative to get tough with all countries buying oil from Russia. But extreme tariffs on India and China, result in retaliatory tariffs, hurting the US economy. And we need India’s support.

I feel for the residents of Ukraine and Russia who will suffer the consequences of this war, and I wish this war to end. But, Ukraine must remain a free Ukraine, not threatened by Russia. For this reason, US military and humanitarian aid is vital. Ultimately, it must be part of the NATO alliance, because this is the only way to deter Putin’s expansionary policies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

We will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine. I know there are many news stories out there. Last week Charlie Kirk, today it is the shooting at the Dallas ICE facility plus the indictment of James Comey.

Absolutely, the shootings are tragic events, and nothing is ever gained. Human life is precious. I feel for the survivors, the widows and children. I have faith that the police will find the shooter who killed an immigrant and wounded others at the Dallas facility.

Tragic events are happening in Gaza now, and it is extremely sad. A war that targets the general population is called genocide and this is an international crime. I don’t see how this advances peace.

James Comey will have his day in court. The Justice Department felt there was sufficient evidence to charge James Comey. The Grand Jury agreed with indicting him on two counts. It will take months to resolve. It is a felony crime to give false testimony to Congress. He is innocent of all charges until proved guilty in a court of law. Everyone, including Donald Trump wants to rush to judgement and have him tried in the media.

So, I will be posting more on the Ukraine war, and avoid the more popular “news de jour” with contrasting points of views from Fox, MSNBC, CNN and of course, the usual noise (to put it mildly) from social media.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump has given Russia 50 days to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or else he will go ahead with severe sanctions to make sure Russia can not profit from sale of their oil. To do so, he must sanction countries that are buying Russian oil. Russia profits from selling fossil fuels, namely oil, natural gas, coal, LNG (liquified natural gas), and petroleum products. In total, the sale of these fuels result in sales of 687 million dollars per day, according to the CREA. On their website, sales are reported in Euros, and I have converted them to dollars.

The specific large buyers of oil and gas are China, India and Turkiye. So, why not just tell these countries to stop buying fossil fuels from Russia until Putin stops the war?

I’ll start with China, which many economists already knew that tariffs would likely hurt the US economy more than China’s. President Xi Jingping did not open up discussions with the US immediately as Trump threatened China. Instead, he flew to Vietnam and other trading partners in a move to show Trump, Chinese products don’t have to be sold in the US. See link below:

Trump losing leverage as China trade war fires duds

Next up is India which is close to a trade deal. Not something Trump will want to upset. India greatly increased its imports of oil from Russia after 2022, because it could buy the oil at discounted prices. India recognized Ukraine in 1991, yet does not support international sanctions against Russia.

Finally Turkiye (note the correct spelling) which is part of NATO, and has provided military equipment to Ukraine. US needs. But, they will continue to buy Russian oil. There has been many issues in the past including Turkiye’s purchase of military defense weapons, similar to Patriot missiles, from Russia. I think Trump will see Turkiye as an ally in the Ukraine war, and will not dare sanction them for their purchase of Russian oil.

It’s interesting, because Trump has given Russia 50 days to find peace in Ukraine, or else he will sanction the buyers of fossil fuels. China and India are the largest buyers with each country importing about 4.1 billion dollars of oil per month. These are secondary sanctions to be added to the tariffs.

CREA Analysis

So, who else is sanctionable? Hungary and Slovenia import Russian oil, each around 200 million per month. Relative to China, India and Turkiye, these are not sizeable purchases. If Trump goes beyond oil, there are other fossil fuels, like LNG, and petroleum products. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the EU and Brazil could join the list of sanctionable countries.

Sanctioning Brazil will not happen. Remember Trump has already threatened Brazil with a 50% tariff on all goods, because they are putting ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on trial. President Lula has responded, stating that Brazil would retaliate with 50% tariffs. So, if tariffs go to 150% because of their purchase of petroleum products, Brazil would retaliate with 150% tariffs. And both countries would be losers, but the US would be the bigger loser, because we have a trade surplus with Brazil.

Using sanctions, tariffs or embargos as a means of forcing countries to change policy can hurt the US more than the targeted country.

At the very end of the CREA analysis, they note three ways to Ukrainian allies can “tighten the screws” on Russia’s oil exports. I think it is a very thoughtful analysis, as none of these measures have any means of immediate retaliation, and they would be directed at Russia rather than China, India and Turkiye.

1. Lower the Price Cap established by the EU sanctions to $30/bbl.
2. Restrict the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers & plug the refining loophole. This one gets complicated so it’s best to defer to the CREA analysis.
3. Stronger enforcement and monitoring

The tanker shipments of crude can be monitored. Trump likes actions he can take unilaterally, but they generally are not successful. Biden thought he could cripple Putin with severe sanctions, at the onset of the war in Feb 2022. It didn’t work.

Stay tuned,

Dave