President Zelensky offered a face-to-face meeting with Putin. Russia rejected this offer as meaningless. As long as Russia’s goal is total control of Ukraine, this meeting was to be for public relations only. Putin want to portray this war as defending their territory (he considers Ukraine belongs to Russia) against NATO powers. He does not want to share a stage with Zelensky.

Ukraine targets St. Petersburg again after Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer for direct talks

So, by suggesting a face-to-face meeting and having Putin reject it, Zelensky can come off as the “peacemaker.”

Ukraine is proving that it can successfully attack deep inside Russia. St. Petersburg is Putin’s hometown, and he is likely furious at Ukraine’s attack. Russian military strategists are likely now looking at a much larger circle of vulnerability in their country. perhaps 1000 km from their eastern border. . The simple strategy of depleting Ukraine’s defenses is now not so easy. If Russia puts all efforts into offense and taking more territory, Ukraine will strike behind the front lines and target everything that supplies the war effort. .

It is essential to understand what Putin seeks to gain from the war as the gains on the battlefield are nominal and supply chains are strained. Economic advisors to Putin are likely busy calculating the trade offs of war verses peace for Russia, and may be advising Putin of dire economic consequences of peace. Very perverse thinking, as peace means Russians not dying on the front lines in Ukraine. But nevertheless, a reality.

The article below, really brings home the point of the peace being an undesirable for the Russian economy, now geared to supplying the needs of military. The term “military-industrial complex” was coined after World War II, but is very applicable to Russia today.

“On one side sits a state-subsidized, demand-guaranteed military-industrial complex, expanding at a pace that would be the envy of any peacetime planner. On the other hand, a civilian economy is slowly hollowing out, starved of labor, capital, and credit.”

and then concludes:

“The military-industrial complex is not simply growing alongside the civilian economy, but is crowding it out.”

Russia’s Economy: Bent Out of Shape

So, if peace broke out with a Russian withdrawal and security needs assured by Western powers, Ukraine’s economy would soar and Russia’s economy would plummet. Ukraine could finally join NATO. And Putin’s reign would be in jeopardy.

A continued war offers little to Putin, if Ukraine can continue getting funding from the West. But peace via a withdrawal of troops brings the risk of economic collapse and enormous humiliation.

So, Zelensky had to make a political gesture, that he wants peace. The best strategy for the US is a total commitment to Ukraine, but Trump is getting more entrenched in the idea of being the peace broker, which has failed.

Stay tuned,

Dave