Deep fried turkey deaths

My local Home Depot is selling everything you need to deep fry your turkey.   This is a bad, bad idea.   Cook your turkey in the oven.  It will come out beautiful.

If you deep fry the bird, it will look like it just stepped out of a forest fire.  Some people manage to burn down their houses.  People die this way.

I’m not making this up.  Which state has the greatest number of deep fried turkey deaths?  It’s Texas.  For 7 years in the row.  This grease and cooking related deaths on Thanksgiving.  Runner ups in this really weird distinction, are Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Congratulations all around, I guess.   Thanksgiving in the emergency room, yeah, I’ve been there, but it wasn’t at all related to cooking a turkey. My research shows by entering “deep fried turkey deaths” there are 57,000 sites.

Remember, you can go out for dinner and be waited on.

Stay tuned

Dave

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Immigration plans , part 2

My guess he’ll fudge the numbers on the 3 million deportations in 2017.

400,000 equals about  3,000,000 deported immigrants.

That’s the new math, I think.   Also,  I think he will claim the millions of rapists, drug dealers, murderers and their ilk  didn’t sneak  in, because he had blood in his eyes or whatever.

But, let’s wait and see.

Stay tuned.

Dave

 

 

 

Immigration – Trump’s Plan

immigration

 

Donald Trump plans to remove 2 to 3 million illegal immigrants in 2017.   Obama deported approximately  400,000 per year, or about 2.5  million between 2009 and 2015.  Bush deported approximately 2 million immigrants during the 8 years he was President.

It all seems very unrealistic to be deporting 10 times more immigrants than last year.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-donald-trump-deport-immigrants-60-minutes-20161113-story.html

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Going forward with President Trump

Is  President Trump going to make America great again?  I have strong doubts.

It is clear that the stock market wanted Clinton to win.  The Dow futures dropped nearly 5% when it became clear around 11:00 pm that Trump had a high probability of winning.

If what kills our economy are unfair trade deals, currency manipulation and  competition from China,  then one would think the policies of Trump would be embraced by the stock market. But, this morning’s future trading  and overseas markets say otherwise.   The world markets are in shock.

World economics  is complicated. What looks to be in the US advantage short term, can end up a total disaster later.   The markets are concerned about  the potential for destabilization of our relations with other countries, and disruptive actions on trade agreements. Some economists predicted Trump would lead us back into recession, through tax cuts for the wealthy and increase government spending, particularly on the military.

I prepare a list of hot issues for 2017,  but I’m holding off posting  them,  given how wrong I was about the elections.  We now are in the transition period.  Trump takes office January 20, 2017.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Results

Election results will continually updated through the night.  Surprises would be anything that would cause us to adjust our projection of Clinton winning with 322 to 328 EV.   The Elections can also be followed on CNN.com.

Wins may be actual or projected wins.   The % of vote in is shown on their site

Link:  http://www.cnn.com/election/results/president

11:35 pm Trump declared projector winner of Florida (29 EV),  re-takes the lead with 216 to 196 EV.

11:30  pm Trump 171 Clinton 190

11:11 pm *** Trump projected winner in NC,  considered to lean to Clinton, with 15 EV.

11:08  pm Trump leads FL by 131696 with 96% of vote. Around 360,000 votes to go, so Clinton would have to get around 70% of them to tie.

11:03 pm Trump leads in Wisconsin (10 EV) considered a solid or likely Clinton win.

11:01 pm  Clinton wins CA,  Clinton 190 Trump 171.   CA was always considered a solid Clinton.

10:55 pm  Path to Trump victory is open, with close races in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and PA.

10:47 pm  Clinton takes New Mexico and Virginia, both considered likely Clinton wins, tally now is Ttump 169 Clinton 109.

10:27 om Trump is the projected winner of Ohio.  Trump now 167 EV to Clinton’s  109.

10:23 pm Trump leads in Florida by 135,000 votes and there is only 5% yet to process.  I calculate that Clinton must get 65% of the remaining votes to tie Trump.

10:16  pm Trump 149 Clinton 109.  All toss-up states are very close,  and VA which was a leaning Clinton state.

9:52 Trump 136 Clinton 104

9:30 pm   FL, NC and  VA are close races.   If Trump wins these states,  Hillary may lose the election.

9:26 pm  Trump 128 EV  Clinton 97 EV

8:54 pm *** This will be no easy win for Clinton with Florida and NC still too close to call.

8:46 pm Race in North Carolina is tight.  Clinton still leads with ~60,000 votes. 61% processed.   Race in NC is critical with 15 EV.

8:43 pm Trump has a projected wins of 66 EV,  Clinton 68,  but if Trump takes FL, he’ll have 95 EV.

8:40 pm Trump ahead in FL by ~ 100,000 votes.

8:31 pm *** Trump may take Florida, in which case Clinton could still win with 293 EV (assuming she wins NC and NV, loses OH).

8:31 pm In Florida,  Trump pulls ahead by 68,000 votes (0.7% lead)

8:22 pm  In Florida,  Trump pulls ahead by 4,000 votes (0.1% lead).

8:17 pm Florida remains extremely close, less than 200 votes apart!

8:13 pm  In FL, Trump and Clinton differ by less than 4000 votes,   87% est. processed.

8:07 pm  Trump and Clinton extremely close in Florida, with 77% of vote in.   Clinton slightly ahead.

11/8/16 8:00 pm (EST)  Trump  48 Clinton 68   No toss ups reporting yet, no surprises.

 

 

Which party controls the Senate?

Prediction 11/8/2016 at 7:12 pm.

Probably shouldn’t make a prediction -but here goes:

There are 46 Democrat senators in the strong and likely categories.

There are 46 Republican senators in the strong and likely categories.

So, we have exactly 8 senators in the tossup categories of which I feel pretty good about 3 will win as Rep and 3 will win as Dem.   Democrats will  win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and  Nevada and Republicans win in Florida, North Carolina and Missouri.  Rubio is real strong in Florida.  So, that put’s the tally at 49/49.

But, Indiana and New Hampshire are tough to predict.  .But,  I think Indiana goes Republican and NH  goes Democrat,   with a 50/50 split.  So, if Hillary wins, then the Senate might be Democratic controlled.

If Indiana and New Hampshire goes  Republican, then the Republicans will retain control of the Senate.  The experts “lean” towards a Democratic  controlled senate, but I think it will be either  51 Dem to 49 Rep or 50/50.  Boy this is hard to predict!

http://www.270towin.com/content/who-controls-the-senate-in-a-tie/

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Election Predictions, Clinton wins with 322 to 328 EV

Prediction made 11/8 at 6:39 pm

Looks like:

Clinton  wins NH, Nevada, Florida, NC

Trump wins OH, Iowa, Maine (CD2), Nebraska, Arizona, Utah. Georgia, Arizona

So Clinton has 268 in the strong + likely  category plus 54 in toss-up states to win with 322 EV which is 52 EV over what she needs.

But Clinton might win Ohio, giving her 328 EV,  which I give about a 40% chance.

Election predictions

Stay tuned,

Dave

Decision day

It’s 7:37 am in Florida, and the polls opened at 7:00 am.   But each state sets its own rules, so please check for the times in your state.    I have stated my views on who the best candidate is, but I respect those who disagree with me.   Do not go pulling up people’s signs or do anything disrespectful today.   We have four loyal, hardworking and intelligent candidates.   Please respect the decision of millions of people. Democracy works on respect and  a willingness to compromise for the greater good.

I was tempted to add one more blog, but I think this posting pretty well says it all (from Persuade me Politics)

https://persuademepolitics.wordpress.com/2016/10/05/donald-trump-patriot-savior-or-tyrant-part-1/

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Fact checkers

I use factcheck.org mostly, but politifact.com has nice summaries of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and others.

Other fact checkers are:

Washington Post

snopes.com

Politifact found that on the average 4% of Trump’s facts were true while 19% of Clinton’s were true.  Adding the categories of true, mostly true and half true gets Trump up to 30% while Clinto gets 75%.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Trump – a nightmare for foreign policy

Republicans who served under George W. Bush recognized that the US had to play a leadership role in the world.  I like to say, “what goes around, comes around.”

Stronger together- really does work.  Make American Great through insults to our fiends (Mexico) doesn’t work.

Enough.  Donald Trump should not be President. He should withdraw.  As a Republican I hope to support someone who has the dignity and stature to run to the highest office in the greatest democracy on earth.

Condoleezza Rice,  Former Secretary of State under George W. Bush.

Nicholas Burns was undersecretary of state for political affairs under Bush.  Here is what he said today on CNN:

I hope she’s  [Clinton] going to be the president.  If it’s Donald Trump, I think all bets are off given his unorthodox and I think, very weak and very dangerous views about Russia.  I think we can say with some certainty that Vladamir Putin and the Russian government would like Donald Trump to be elected president because Trump has been denegrating NATo; he’ll make NATPO weaker. He won’t be the strong American leader in Europe that Europeans are accustomed to.  It is clear by their actions and words that the Russians support a Donald Trump candidacy.  Every other European government, and I’ve talked to a lot of them, desperately want Hillary Clinton to be elected because they want stability and a traditional American leader and a leader who is sophisticated enough to know how the US can be effective in that region.

 I think for most Europeans and East Europeans,  Trump is a real danger to them.

Republicans working for President Bush have either remained quiet or turned their back on Trump.  Here’s a sampling:

“If Donald Trump wins, he will, by definition, have created a new template of success for Republicans,” said Ari Fleischer, Mr. Bush’s first White House press secretary. “But if he loses, and particularly if he is crushed, it will reset the party back more in the direction of President Bush.”

Because Mr. Trump represents something far greater in the eyes of the Bush veterans than just an unfortunate party nominee, their determination to defeat him has become more intense.

The vast majority of the approximately three dozen veterans of Mr. Bush’s administration contacted for this article indicated that they would not cast a ballot for Mr. Trump.

“I can count on one hand the number of people I worked with who are supporting Trump,” said R. Nicholas Burns, a former Bush State Department official who has been calling his onetime colleagues to solicit support for the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

R. Nicholas Burns :

Nicholas Burns (born January 28, 1956) is a university professor, columnist, lecturer and former American diplomat. He is currently Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a member of the Board of Directors of the school’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. At the Harvard Kennedy School, he is Director of The Future of Diplomacy Project and Faculty Chair for the programs on the Middle East and India and South Asia. He is Director of the Aspen Strategy Group, Senior Counselor at the Cohen Group and serves on the Board of Directors of Entegris, Inc. He writes a biweekly column on foreign affairs for the Boston Globe and is a senior foreign affairs columnist for GlobalPost.

This I promise you will be my very last post until after the election.   I also will post all comments on these issues.

Stay tuned,

Dave