Trump and the economy

If someone has lost their job, Trump gives them hope.  Usually,  large layoffs occur when profits go down.  I worked for Texaco, and the oil price went down for a prolong period, and I was scared.  I didn’t take vacation that year.

The hope Trump is giving them is false.  And his program is dumb.   Globalization is here, for all the blessings and warts it brings.   The Chinese, Mexicans, and Europeans all have a pretty good idea of what Americans will buy, and how to make it cheaper than US manufacturers.   But, if you raise tariffs with these countries, you set off a trade war.  The US companies will not be able to sell their products abroad, because our trading partners will reciprocate.

So, many economists are suggesting investors who believe Trump will win, to be prepared for another recession and tough times ahead.  Citibank warned their clients that the stock market could fall 10% following a Trump win. Some are predicting recession.

When Clinton’s and Trump’s plans were analyzed by non-partisan financial analyst group, as stated in the last debate (Chris Wallace moderating)  it was revealed that Trump’s plan would add more to the national debt more than Clinton’s plan. Amazing!   Combination of no tax cuts on the rich, and increased military spending (an idea from the Reagan era),  will increase our debt, and may cause interest rates to increase.   This is where Trump breaks away from the traditional conservative base of balancing the budget.

Where US companies succeed is filling niches that nobody else can do as well.  Netflix, Microsoft and Apple are huge success stories.   Clinton will continue to assist small businesses get loans to keep innovators going.

On the issue of health care,  don’t believe anything Trump says, please.   It is real hard to separate the noise from the fact.   The basic reality before Obamacare, was people had no insurance, and would show up at emergency rooms, unable to pay for their services.  Hospitals were losing money, and only two solutions existed- bailouts from the government or passing on the cost of all services to their insured customers. Clinton has vowed to fix the problems with Obamacare.  Trump vows to repeal it, and replace it.  Replace it with what???? The number of uninsured will once again be very high, and the health care costs will continue to soar under Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

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