Democratic candidates

The Democratic challenger will officially be known on July 16, the last day of the Democratic convention.   It will likely be known months before this.   It will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  Donald Trump will officially be a candidate for the Republican party on August 27 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  Conventions are not where candidates are chosen anymore.  It is where the party celebrates their candidate,  And along the way,  others make some unflattering remarks (“lock her up”) about the opposition candidate.   That’s just the way it goes.

I’m certain Wisconsin and North Carolina (Democrat and Republican conventions) were chosen because they  are one of the 7 to 9 toss up states.  The 7 states with electoral votes (EV’s) in parentheses are:   AZ  (11), FL (29),  MI (10), NC (15), NH (4), PA (20), WI (10).   I consider NH (4), ME (4) and NE (5) are “semi toss ups” because they permit the EV’s to be split.   While every vote counts, I don’t think these 3 states really are going to swing the election.    The 3 biggies (FL, NC and PA) are all on the east coast.

The best site so far on the prediction of the 2020 election is www.270towin.com


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Trump has a distinct advantage.  While the Democratic candidates focus on the primaries, Donald Trump will focus his campaign rallies on swing states.

Early Democratic primary battles in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Iowa may not be the best way to spend contributions.  The Democratic party needs to appeal to the sometimes voter, not that interested in the issues.  The month of March will greatly narrow the field.   Joe Biden is now out in front, and by March, he may have enough primary votes, for the other candidates to concede.  March 3 is Super Tuesday which ends primary voting in 14 states.  If none of the candidates have sufficient pledged candidates,   then it is a contested convention.  I don’t see this happening, as the Democrats lose their chance to laud praise on one candidate.

The most informative  link on the primaries is from Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Boeing Crash in Iran

Iranian investigators rushed to the scene of the accident for a reason, the evidence must be preserved.  They reported that the black boxes were found.  This was very important.   Boeing offered to help in the investigation, and they have very good reason for this, as it was a Boeing 737-800 which crashed.  Iran responded that it will not share the black box with Americans.

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board are the ones who should be assisting Iranian authorities.    Bloomberg News posted this opinion on their website:

“NTSB experts are widely recognized as among the best crash investigators in the world and they regularly participate in investigations at the behest of foreign governments, under a process outlined in Annex 13 of the Convention on International Civil Aviation.”

However, as pointed out in their post, US sanctions against Iran makes it difficult for the NTSB to act immediately.   The Bloomberg blog states:

American sanctions on Iran require NTSB investigators to procure a license from the Treasury Department in order to work with Iranian counterparts—such clearances can take as long as a year to be issued.

That’s terrible!   There are obvious safety concerns with sending Americans to Iran, but they would have to be invited to help in the investigation.   I suspect the details of the investigation will be shared with Canada and Ukraine, so through these countries, NTSB can gain important information.  Of the 176 passengers who died,  20 were Ukrainians, and 11 were Canadians.    The nationalities  of those who died is not really relevant when countries solicit the assistance of the NTSB.  but unfortunately in this case, the sanctions have interfered with the  highly technical matter of plan crash investigation.

It is a chance to cut through all the hostile rhetoric and help Iran with our expertise.    If the crash is due to a problem with the Boeing 737-800, then the knowledge gain can help improve the US fleet of aircraft.

A win-win situation.

See link below

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link:

An Opportunity in Iran’s Latest Tragedy
Trump should allow American experts to join the investigation into the crash of the Ukrainian airliner.