This is the week for Democrats. I watched the entire 2 hours, form 9:00 to 11:00 pm. I’ll have to admit that everyone’s perspective is different, and each night, the Democrats will try to convince you that their candidates are the right choice. Then it will be time for the Republicans. I’ve already seen a couple of Trump’s interviews, and their campaign is built on some sensationally false narratives, particularly strong on the failure of the Obama administration.
The two issues that began dominated the first 2 hours were the coronavirus epidemic and the black lives matter movement. The convention priorities seemed to turn to the headline news. Plus, as the convention closed for day 1, Michelle Obama attacked the personal character of Donald Trump. I would have like to have seen a long list of his lies. I hope this will be coming today.
One of these false narratives will date back to 2016, when Trump will say that our economy was ready to collapse. By any economic measure, in 2016 our economy was booming. It had really plunged into recession under George Bush’s administration during the housing or subprime crisis. Bush deserves credit for supporting the TARP program, with an unprecedented 700 billion dollar package designed to help our economy in 2008. It was hard for Bush to do, as it was admitting that the economy was in terrible shape, yet he was working with his advisors to fix things. The actions of Bush, made it possible for Obama to continue to add to the stimulus package. Yet, it wasn’t until late 2009, that the stimulus finally started working. Unemployment dropped from over 10% in 2009 to less than 5% in 2016. The economy was not revived by Trump. The same boom started by Obama continued through the Trump years.
On the economy, if tomorrow we have the miracle vaccine, perhaps the Sputnik 5 really does work, then we still will not be “open for business” with a massive government deficit and enormous unemployment. This means less federal revenue in 2021 and the prospect of higher inflation. So, if Biden is elected, he will be inheriting a mess which comes from the trillion dollars of stimulus. The only way out is cutting government spending. There will be an attempt to rollback the Trump tax cuts, but it is a heavy lift. It is crazy, but the Democrat party must become more “republicanized” and promote improving trade relations with China and numerous other countries, and cut government spending.
Trump will say with 100% conviction that a vote for Biden is one small step towards economic disaster. He will say that let the Democrats run government, will be like handing the keys to the kingdom to the Chinese and illegal immigrants. The stock market is still on a roll with Biden in the lead in the swing states. I see the recent upsurge in the stock markets in solar and fuel cell technology as a very positive sign of a better future ahead, with cleaner energy sources. Fossil fuels are not going away, as there is too much invested in a gasoline based transportation system. But a higher percentage of our energy needs can be met with other sources of energy, and it will be a strong positive in an recovering economy.
Stay tuned and keep watching the online DNC convention.
Dave
Economic Policy of Barack Obama administration
Economic policy of Donald Trump administration
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