April 11, It’s 3:40 pm is Islamabad. The reporters covered the US and Iranian delegations arrival to the talks. Pakistan officials met first with the Iranian delegation, then with the US delegation. Reporters stay within walking distance in a separate hotel, and are still very much in the dark.
All eyes are on JD Vance. If he is smart, he won’t say anything of substance. That’s necessary in diplomacy. JD Vance is joined in Islamabad by President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The Iranian delegation, which includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, arrived earlier in the Pakistani capital.
So, it is impossible to say if this is a prelude to peace or a continuation of the war. Will US sit down with their counterparts from Iran, and actually negotiate? So far, Iran has said that any direct meeting will be limited to a one-day event.
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is creating shortages of jet fuel, which means there will be canceling of flights from Europe. In this environment, bookings will certainly drop. I don’t think airlines can raise rates to cover the cost of increased jet fuel. There is no question that $100 plus oil prices impact the world economy..
So, US and Iran have their list of demands, set out prior to the meeting. See link below. These are 4 areas where compromises will be very difficult.
Strait of Hormuz: Iran wants acknowledgment of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, where it aims to collect transit fees and control access in what would amount to a huge shift in regional power. The U.S. wants it opened for oil tankers and other traffic without any limitations, including tolls.
Lebanon Issue: Iran wants a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have killed nearly 2,000 people since the start of the fighting in March. Israel and the U.S. have said the Lebanon campaign is not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire while Tehran insists it is.
Uranium issue: Iran wants to be allowed to enrich uranium, which Washington has ruled out and President Donald Trump has insisted is non-negotiable.
Unblocking of Assets: Iran wants the U.S. to unblock Iranian assets and end sanctions that have crippled its economy for years. Washington has indicated that it is open to significant sanctions relief but only in exchange for concessions from Iran on its nuclear and missile programmes.
The US froze 2 billion dollars of Iranian assets. I assume they were deposited in US banks. Worldwide it is estimated that 100 to 120 billion dollars are frozen by other countries. When Trump made his primetime broadcast on April 1 to the nation, he slammed Obama for “giving” Iran 1.7 billion dollars as follows:
“Obama gave them $1.7 billion in cash. Green, green cash. Took it out of banks from Virginia, D.C. and Maryland. All the cash they had, flew it by airplanes in an attempt to buy their respect and loyalty. But it didn’t work. They laughed at our president and went on with their mission to have a nuclear bomb”
Fact checkers immediately caught this lie. Nothing was ever given to Iran. This was their money that wasreturned to Iran. They paid $400 million dollars for military equipment in 1979 or before, and never received the equipment. So, these funds were for the return of 400 million dollars plus interest (1.3 billion dollars). I calculated the interest rate was about 4%. Trump went on primetime television, to promote a long series of lies.
Trump is in a bind of epic proportions. I listed four issues where Iran and the US are far apart. The AP article lists 3 more issues: (1) Iran wants compensation for the destruction that US has caused, (2) Iran wants withdrawal of US forces from the areaa and a permanent cease-fire while the US insists it will not withdraw, and will escalate the hostilities if the negotiations fail. (3) Israel and the U.S. both want Iran’s missile capabilities to be dramatically curtailed. Tehran has said its formidable missile arsenal is non-negotiable.
What are the main talking points at the US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan?
Exclusive: Iranian source says US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian funds, Washington denies it
So, the negotiations are scheduled to last two weeks. They can always extend this time.
Stay tuned,
Dave