New York Times columnist Marc Santora nailed it, as he wrote:
“Through history, cease-fires have generally been reached after lengthy processes that help warring sides achieve a lasting settlement. But in the war in Ukraine, analysts said, they have become a tool of performative diplomacy, stand-alone commodities used to manage media cycles while the machinery of war grinds along.”
It was just a 3-day cease-fire in the Russian assault of Ukraine. When it ended, Russia made up for lost time with a deadly bombing spree, including missiles, drones and guided bombs.
Trump and Putin are similar, in using cease-fires, as a means to tamping down discontent in their own countries and re-assuring the populace that the conflict would be over soon. The cost of the US attack on Iran, is really incalculable, as vital supplies of oil and fertilizer are stranded in the Straits of Hormuz. As I prepare this posting, a Chinese tanker, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil (value ~ 200 million dollars) is attempting to pass through the straits. There are shortages of both in many countries.
Russia really indiscriminately pounded Ukraine in the last few days, attacking a school and an apartment building, according to the Guardian:
” Zelenskyy said drones were intercepted over several regions but reported damage to energy facilities, apartment buildings, a kindergarten and a civilian locomotive. In Kyiv, debris from a downed drone fell on the roof of a 16-storey residential building in the northern Obolon district, sparking a fire, said the mayor, Vitali Klitschko. Two people were hurt in the central Cherkasy region, and damage was also recorded in the Zhytomyr region, farther west, and in the Chernihiv region on the Russian border.”
The Ukraine war will end only when the powers within the Kremlin realizes they will not succeed in controlling Ukraine. Putin has expanded Russia, making Belarus and Chechnya subservient to Russia. They are hard at work, intervening in Libya and Sudan. The best chance for peace in Ukraine is a total commitment to the Ukraine government.
Jim Cramer has a panel of sound buttons, which is really clever. One is scary noises, and the other is applause. The button that Trump has used and now is totally worn out is: “It will be all over soon.” The US-Iran conflict, which the US started and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (invasion) which Russia started, is not ending soon. To his base, it means just ignore the news.
The chance of achieving any of goals Trump put forward prior to his attack on Iran, is honestly in shambles. The stated that the attack allowed more moderate leaders to take control. Just the opposite really happened. He said Iran’s enriched uranium was wiped out by previous bombing. The closing of the Straits of Hormuz is Iran’s one ace card, to end the war on their terms. They are not going to discard their ace.
So cease-fires are not a prelude to peace, not in Ukraine nor in Iran.
Stay tuned,
Dave
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-truce-trump.html