Both Iran and the US want a 60-day cease-fire. That’s the easy one. It’s best to call it a cease-fire agreement or an interim agreement or a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). What appears to be close to done is a very fragile deal. MOU’s are frequently signed by countries to help diplomats bridge differences.
The deal can be a prelude to peace or war. If it is the latter, it will be a highly destructive war with Iran attacking US bases in the region.
I believe at its core, it will be promises of money to Iran (unfreezing of assets) in exchange for passage of ships through the the Strait. Iran is demanding the unfreezing of 24 billion dollars. Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait, but allow the passage of ships. In this way, Iran can declare victory, because this will be a major concession.
It is an agreement which will clarify points of disagreement to be hammered out during the 60 day period. What is still on the table might be more than what the agreement has taken off the table. So, I expect disappointment, rather than relief when the MOU is released.
Iran will promise not to fund terrorist groups. That’s an easy one. They fund Hezbollah, and do not consider it a terrorist group. Iran will promise not to use its uranium to make a nuclear weapon. They’ve agreed to this since the JCPOA. So, the MOU will list points Iran agreed to that have nothing to do with this conflict.
US will agree to end its blockade of Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf. It will not withdraw its 3 to 4 warships in the area, but leave this to further negotiations. Israel will not like the agreement because I believe the language related to reducing their uranium stockpile will not sufficiently specific. Just a lot of good intentions with the details to be worked out later.
In sum, I believe the ability to safely transit the Strait, will be linked to the unfreezing of assets. Bloomberg correctly identifies this as a staged approach, with the 60 day window to work on a more permanent agreement.
No question we are at the crossroads with the outcome depending on how each side judges the outcome of continued war verses compromises to peace.
Stay tuned,
Dave