Month: November 2023

The Art of Election Forecasting

by Dave

This is a subject which I know quite a bit about, as I have a website called sim538.com which summarized many of the forecasts made during the 2020 presidential election. I am working on a new website, which will be similar for the 2024 presidential election. My new site will track the election forecasters and note significant changes.

Below, I have posted a recent consensus map from the website 270towin.com .

The map identifies the toss-up or swing states and their electoral votes (EV’s) are Pennsylvania(19), Georgia(16), Arizona(11), Nevada(6) and Wisconsin(10), for a total of 62 electoral votes. I call the swing states, PAWN-G as it is easy to remember. The candidate that wins 270 electoral votes or more, becomes president.

I also coined the term, super swing states. To qualify, nearly every forecast map must show this as a toss-up state. Right now, Georgia and Arizona are the only two super swing states.

Assuming the consensus map is right, it is totally amazing that there are so few swing states this early in the presidential election. Also note that each of the five swing states were won by Biden in 2020, by a very narrow margin. The map shows Democrats have a slight lead with 241 electoral votes over Republicans with 235 electoral votes.

For Democrats to win, they need 29 more EV’s. They could do this by winning two to three of the five swing states. The most obvious combination is PA(19) and WI(10). But if Democrats lose PA, then they can still win, if they win in GA, WI and AZ, for a very narrow win with 278 votes.

For Republicans to win, they need 35 EV’s. They could do this by winning PA, GA and AZ. But if they lose PA, there are less winning combinations. GA, WI and AZ is a possible combination for a very narrow win of 275 votes.

So, of the 5 swing states, winning PA and GA is really important.

Some of the old swing states are off the list. Florida and North Carolina are likely to go Republican, while Michigan and New Hampshire are likely to go Democrat. But these states can not be ignored and may be the source of additional surprises in 2024.

A lot depends on turnout – can candidates get their base sufficiently fired up to actually show up at the polls or mail in their ballots. Forecasters and party strategists know this very well. There’s a lot more to come.

My new website will start in January 2024, to track election forecasts in a purely non-partisan manner.

Stay tuned,

Dave .

Robert Kennedy, Jr.

by Dave

Robert Kennedy, Jr. has never run for any office. I hope people do not vote for him. I’ve seen him several times on Fox News. I guess Fox believes he will pull votes away from Joe Biden.

He just seems always to go off the deep end on issues and would make a terrible president. He is an environmental activist, which I like. I don’t think he would be effective at reducing global carbon emissions, because this requires building coalitions with other countries. I don’t see him quietly negotiating agreements with other countries, as he is too much of a rogue adversary.

On so many issues, he gets off the tracks in big conspiracy themes. He is reckless. You can’t have a president who is constantly attacking government. In some ways, it is a bit like Trump, who would dismember the FBI and Justice Department, if he could. Kennedy would take action against the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, in his extreme viewpoint that they are colluding with “Big Pharma” and “Big Oil.” At the center of his conspiracy rants, is the big corporations have destroyed our institutions. From Wikipedia:

Kennedy has also stated that the American government is dominated by corporate power; he said the Environmental Protection Agency was run by the “oil industry, the coal industry and the pesticide industry”, and described the Food and Drug Administration as overly dominated by “Big Pharma”.[148]

I want a president who can identify what is wrong with our institutions, and improve them. Trump is hell bent on getting revenge on the Justice Department, while Kennedy would go after the EPA and FDA.

Global problems, like Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, North Korea’s aim to get nuclear weapons and climate change, require strong cooperation with our partners around the world. Kennedy is an isolationist in this regard.

An outspoken opponent of the military industry and foreign intervention, Kennedy was highly critical of the Iraq War as well as American support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion of the country.

Kennedy is an equal opportunity attacker of Republican and Democrats, President and Congress. Don’t waste your vote on him. We need realistic problem solvers. Of all the potential candidates, Joe Biden, is the only one who brings together a real team to pragmatically work with world leaders to solve global problems.

Kennedy is an extreme isolationist. He would have never supported Ukraine to defend themselves against Russia. Russia can not be allowed to redraw its boundaries one country at a time.

As I complete this post, a historical meeting between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will take place in San Francisco. Biden will press Xi Jinping to join the US and world leaders in persuading the rogue countries like North Korea from sending weapons to Russia, to use in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The summit will be an opportunity for Biden to urge China to break their close alliance with Iran, because of their funding of Islamic terrorist organizations.

Neither Kennedy nor Trump (with 91 criminal charges against him) should be the US next president. They are big on words, but short on actual accomplishments.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Quick updates on Trump’s Criminal Cases (Nov 13, 2023)

by Dave

Jan 6 election interference case: Trump’s legal team has asked the trial be televised. This is a non-starter as no federal criminal trial can be broadcast. Trial set to begin March 4. Gag order put on hold by Appeals court. The 3 judge panel will hear oral arguments Nov 20 on the gag order. March 4 is also super Tuesday Republican primary, where roughly 1/3 of all delegates are chosen.

Trump has filed for a dismissal of all charges. On Nov 5, the Special Prosecutors responded forcefully, as follows (from first sentence of arguments):

“Rather than challenging the indictment on its merits, the defendant’s motions (ECF Nos. 113 and 114) attack the indictment by mischaracterizing its allegations, raising inapposite hypotheticals, and advancing arguments that are long on rhetoric but short on law. Stripped of those distractions, the defendant’s statutory and constitutional claims are entirely meritless.”

Classified documents case: Still scheduled to begin May 20, 2024 in Ft. Pierce, FL. Judge Aileen Cannon, has ruled against moving the trial date to beyond November 2024. A meeting is scheduled for March 1, 2024 to reconsider the deadlines and Trump’s side can again argue that the start date is too soon.

GA Election Fraud conspiracy case: Right now (Nov 12), four guilty pleas have been accepted, so there are now 15 defendants in the case. As requirements of the plea agreements, each defendant must be willing to testify honestly for the prosecution. Note that the prosecution has indicated that they would like a March 4 trial start date, which coincides with the Jan 6 federal case in Washington.

As of November 6, defendant Harrison Floyd, a former Black Voices for Trump director, is requesting government agencies turn over 145,000 Fulton absentee ballots. Judge Scott McAfee will rule on Floyd’s request “in the coming days” according to news reports. Court observers expect more defendants to opt for plea deals in the coming weeks. Harrison Floyd might be one of them.

Judge Scott McAfee expressed concerns that the courtroom for the trial of 15 defendants is not large enough. He wants the trial to be as open as possible, which includes allowing the media to televise the proceedings.

Hush money case, which is still scheduled to begin March 25. Judge Juan Merchan has said he is open to reschedule this case and will hold a conference with attorneys in February 2024 on start dates. This is a criminal case, and Donald Trump is required to be present.

Scheduling these four court cases isn’t easy. The Hush Money case might be the shortest, and ready for trial, but the judge might hold off until the other cases are done.

Other court cases:

Minnesota Supreme Court refused to consider denying Donald Trump from running in the primaries. The suit is based on the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 3 which bars any candidate who has engaged in insurrection from holding office. The Court based their decision on the fact that primaries are a means of deciding the party’s candidate, not an election to a government position. I support this decision, because the outcome would be very undemocratic. Elections must be decided by the voters.

Those who wish to bar Donald Trump from the Minnesota, will have a second chance after he is on the ballot. A similar court case in proceeding in Colorado.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump’s fraud trial and coming court trials in 2024

by Dave

Ivanka Trump was the prosecution’s last witness. Legal experts are saying that her testimony allowed prosecutors to introduce important documents into evidence.

The defense is now able to present witnesses to show that the fraud was minor or excusable in some manner. It will be far less dramatic. Trump’s legal defense witnesses will likely show that the bank executives were pleased to make the loans and that they were repaid on time. Some of this may be immaterial. Since the judge has already ruled that fraud was committed, it no longer is a trial about guilt or innocence, but about the extent of the punishment.

It is estimated that the defense will rest on December 15 and closing arguments by Dec 22, 2023. It has been reported that there are Then there are closing arguments in the following week. Prosecutors have asked the judge to exclude some of the witnesses as not relevant to the case, which makes sense as the case is not about whether fraud was committed. The judge has already ruled on this.

I expect the judge to rule in January 2024. There will definitely be an appeal by Trump’s legal team. I guess the big issue is whether the ruling, including the control of assets in New York State, can be stayed (put aside) until the Appellate court rules.

— What’s coming up in 2024?

The team of reporters from the various networks will stick around as more court cases are coming down the road. The civil defamation case by E. Jean Carroll is scheduled to begin January 15, 2024, which is just about adding 10 million dollars to her award.

There are four criminal cases against Trump, all of which could start before election day. The first two cases are the January 6 election obstruction case, March 4, in Washington and the hush money case (also known as the Stormy Daniels case) scheduled to begin March 25 in NYC. The other two cases documents case in Ft. Pierce, FL and GA interference case likely start dates are after May, 2024. Right now, Trump’s lawyers are trying to push back the documents case to a date after the election.

Three other non- Trump trials are set for 2024. The really big court case will be Senator Bob Menendez and his wife Nadine trial on accepting bribes to influence foreign policy, which is scheduled to begin on May 6, 2024. Three other accomplices were charged. For everyone who thought the Justice Department was just targeting corrupt Republicans, this one will clearly show that there are corrupt politicians in both parties. It is certain that pictures of Bob’s stack of gold bars and his Mercedes will be offered into evidence.

On May 28, 2024, Steve Bannon will go on trial for stealing from the “We build the Wall” fund. Steve Bannon was pardon by Trump on federal charges which I found extremely hypocritical. Bannon was stealing from the most ardent Trump supporters, willing to support his “charitable organization” to privately fund the building of a wall between the US and Mexico. So, scamming Trump’s supporters is ok, right? I uploaded a couple posts on Steve Bannon, and his accomplices in this scam. I don’t expect the trial will last long.

Almost I almost forgot Rep. George Santos trial, which in scheduled for September 2024. Santos is accused of stealing people’s identities and making charges on his own donors’ credit cards without their authorization, lying to the FEC and, by extension, the public about the financial state of his campaign. Santos is accused of falsely inflating the campaign’s reported receipts with non-existent loans and contributions. He is so, so guilty, it is laughable to think he is a representative.

A familiar refrain is “I am completely innocent” which then turns into “We will win on appeal.” I know that every defendant is presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. But I can express my opinion which is “The bigger they are, the harder they fall.” Well, I think 2024 should be game over for Donald, Steve, Bob, George and assorted accomplices. This is really how you drain the swamp! But things don’t always work out that way.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump’s testimony on Fraud Cases

by Dave

Trump’s rants on the stand did not help his case one bit. Per CNN: “Judge Arthur Engoron, who has clashed with Trump throughout the trial, at first tried to stop the former president’s political barbs and speechifying, telling his lawyer Chris Kise to “control your client” and threatening to have Trump removed as a witness.”

The prosecution was trying to connect the overvaluations to actions Trump either initiated or approved. Also, questioning Trump about known facts, and getting a dishonest reply, would further diminish his credibility. Of course, his legal team would coach him on ways to be evasive, but not dishonest.

Why did his testimony hurt him? When a question is not directly answered, then the judge can conclude that the witness refused to answer the question. In this civil case, the judge can infer this in a negative manner, further linking Trump to the fraud. Of course, the negative inferences can be raised on appeal.

I watched various news channels, and of course, Fox News commentators were trying to make financial fraud look like something that shouldn’t be a crime because no one was hurt by his fraud. This is terribly wrong. Fraud hurts the integrity of the system. I can get a bank loan based on my real income and assets. I don’t want someone else qualifying based on fraudulent appraisals, and getting approved with better terms by making numbers. That’s outrageous and makes a mockery of our laws and rules.

Finally, Fox News commentators stated that the AG James of New York State targeted Donald Trump’s organization. Well, this was only after his attorney and fixer, Michael Cohen, admitted under oath in Congress, that the Trump organization including Donald Trump and CFO Allen Weisselberg routinely “cooked the books” to impress banks and insurers. So, all Attorney General Letitia James was saying at election time, is that she would prosecute anyone where there was ample evidence of wrongdoing including Donald Trump. And, they were cooking the books on all their properties in New York State, so it was fraud on a massive scale.

A fireman goes where there is smoke. AG James was just doing what the state pays her to do – enforce the laws for everyone.

Usually, if some evidence beneficial to a defendant has not been presented during questioning by a prosecuting attorney, the defense attorney on cross examination, will allow defendants a chance to provide more evidence. The defense decided not to cross examine Trump, because his ramblings about politics and his wealth would not help him.

Fox News commentators will not be reporting how 3 appellate judges, all appointed by presidents from the Democratic Party, ruled in favor of Trump this week, in lifting the temporarily the gag order in the federal January 6 case. Judges look at the briefs, laws and precedents, not politics.

Also, cases to disqualify Trump from the ballot are being heard in Colorado and Minnesota. I am hopeful these cases will fail, as I believe, a democracy has to let all voters select their president.

The process of equal justice based on the law takes time. Trump’s legal team will immediately appeal Judge Engoran’s verdict. And they will request his judgement be stayed until the appeal can be decided. This is another check against judgements based on errors committed in the court proceedings.

So, this case will continue into 2024.

Stay tuned,

Dave