Trump is indicted in four court cases, of which 3 cases (Federal Jan 6 case, Manhattan hush money case and Federal documents case) have scheduled start dates of March 4, March 25 and May 20, 2024. It is obvious the court dates will be rescheduled, as there is only 21 days between the Jan 6 case and the hush money case. Even the general order can change.

Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis “Trump’s RICO Case” with now 15 defendants has not been scheduled, but I think it is fair to say, it will be the last one to be heard. Willis suggested a start date of August 5. 

If Jack Smith prevails in the expedited Supreme Court case, which petitions the Court to deny Trump immunity, then it is possible the Jan 6 case will start as scheduled on March 4, and the Manhattan hush money case will be rescheduled. The order most damaging to Trump, I believe, would be to complete the two federal cases first, then go to the Manhattan hush money case.   

Trump would like everything pushed back beyond the election. He knows this won’t happen. Initially his legal team filed to have the hush money case tried in federal court, but just before the deadline on November 15, they withdrew their appeal for the venue change. If they had succeeded on appeal, Trump could have pressed the issue of presidential immunity.  But, I think they now see this case as the one to go forward in 2024, delaying the two federal cases.

The hush money case is no slam dunk. The Trump team has argued that this should not be a felony charge at all, but a misdemeanor charge. ”Bragg’s office must show that Trump’s actions were taken with the intent to commit or conceal another crime in order for the falsification of business records charges to be elevated from misdemeanors to felonies.” (Politico, Nov 16, 2023) Second, that it is based on Michael Cohen, who has been convicted of perjury and disbarred. And finally, there is an issue of the legality of extending the statute of limitations by executive order. Bottom line: the hush money case will definitely be appealed, if Trump is found guilty.

Link: Politico, Nov 16, Trump is trying to use campaign to dodge criminal consequences, Manhattan DA says

Link: Raw Story, Dec 14, How Trump’s D.C. court delay could backfire in his New York hush money trial

Trump’s team is busy preparing their reply to Jack Smith’s petition of the Supreme Court, due on Dec 20. I expect they will make a strong point to delay the immunity issue until the appellate court rules. No sense in picking up a hot potato when it is already in a lower court. Further, the petition cites “Nixon’s case” which was expedited to the Supreme Court because it concerned President Nixon’s refusal to provide documents to a special prosecutor, obviously not the same situation as Trump.

A lot of moving parts. I’m still hoping the Fani Willis conspiracy case starts prior to November 2024. It will be televised. We shall see.

Stay tuned,

Dave