In May 2015, Exxon-Mobil discovered oil offshore Guyana with the drilling and testing of Liza-1 well. Guyana was a Dutch colony from 1667-1815, then a British colony until independence in 1966.  But, the Liza-1 well in the Stabroek block changed Guyana forever, with the prospect of billions pouring into Guyana. Exxon has a 45% interest in the block, Hess oil has a 30% interest and CNOOC has 25% interest. Guyana now has approximately 11 billion barrel equivalent of known oil resources. It is the fourth wealthiest country in the Americans on a per capita basis, with US, Canada and the Bahamas ranked as #1, 2 and 3.

A 630 mile Esequibo river divides Guyana into east and west sections. There are different spellings for this river including Essequibo river. Venezuela claims all land on the west side of the river which would include 15.8% of the population and approximately two-thirds of Guyana. 

The border disputes has been going on for decades. Venezuela appears to be preparing for an attack. Exxon has stated that all their wells are located very south of the disputed Eastern territorial waters claimed by Venezuela. See link below:

Venezuela defends military buildup

Per link above, “Guyana has taken the issue to the World Court in the Netherlands for a definitive ruling, while Venezuela has said it prefers direct bilateral talks as the way forward. On Friday, the Venezuelan defense ministry accused Guyana of threatening the St. Vincent agreement by irresponsible actions and media deception, maintaining that the ’Essequibo is ours.'”

The hostile rhetoric from Venezuela’s Defense minister, Vladimir Padrino, is coupled with increased expansion of military bases along the Guyana-Venezuela border, in violation of agreements signed in December 2023.  See the very detailed recent reporting from the Center for Strategic International Studies, which includes satellite photos detailing the buildup of bases and equipment.

CSIS Link

At the same time, Exxon-Mobil are continuing field development projects, aimed at boosting oil production to 1.2 million barrels of oil per day by 2027 approximately double current production rates. These are deep water wells, which will produce to large FPSO’s or Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels. By 2027, current development plans call for seven vessels. This means no tank farms located onshore, making any attack of oil facilities themselves much more difficult as it would be observable from the sky.

My guess is Venezuela sees an initial ground assault, which puts them close to Georgetown, the capital.

See link below:

Exxon Mobil starts production through Payara FPSO offshore Guyana

The potential of an invasion by Venezuela is high. The pretext will be the government of Guyana, is illegally contracting with Exxon-Mobil, a US company, to steal Venezuela’s oil. 

Definitely scary stuff.  I’m worried Venezuela may find backers to fund its invasion, like Cuba or even worse, Russia.

Stay tuned,

Dave