I tried to make these summaries as short as possible. For each case, there is massive political commentary on both sides. For each of these cases, I have listed the relevant links at the end of this posting.

My conclusion is that in each case, the guilt or innocence of Donald Trump, must be decided in a courtroom, not on social media. The outcome of the two federal criminal cases should not be decided because Donald Trump won the presidential election and could install a partisan Attorney General to shield him from being accountable for his illegal actions.

FEDERAL CRIMINAL CASES

Classified Documents Case: Status, Dismissed but under appeal by the Department of Justice

On June 13, 2023, Donald Trump plead not guilty to all 37 counts. His defense team filed many pre-trial motions. Judge Aileen Cannon postponed the start of the trial from May 2024 to July 2024, then on July 15, 2024 dismissed the case completely, ruling that the appointment of Special Counsel, Jack Smith, was a violation of the US Constitution. The dismissal of the case is being appealed.

On September 6, 2023, again citing the Presidential Records Act, Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt: “I’m allowed to do whatever I want.”

On September 14, 2023, Trump was interviewed by Megyn Kelly for SiriusXM. He said: “I’m allowed to take these documents, classified or not classified. And frankly, when I have them, they become unclassified. People think you have to go through a ritual. You don’t — at least in my opinion, you don’t.”

Many fact checking websites have disputed Trump’s claims. CNN fact checked the claim that he has the right to all documents under the Presidential Records Act. Contrary to Trump’s claim, the classified document belong to the National Archives. An excellent summary of seven false claims by Trump is summarized in the link below:

CNN Link: Fact check: Seven of Trump’s false or unsupported claims on the documents investigation

A ruling by the Appellate Court will happen after the election. It may occur before inauguration day, but this doesn’t really matter, as there will be many motions after the court rules, to take us pass January 20, 2025.

If Trump is elected, he has the power to have the case against him dismissed and abolish the Special Counsel, Jack Smith. If Kamala Harris is elected, I believe she will respect the Special Counsel obligation to bring this case to trial, and show no favoritism. The same goes for the January 6 Election Interference case.

January 6 Election Obstruction Case, Active and in pre-trial motions

It looked for a while the court trial is case would start before the election. This all changed with a 6-3 decision by the US Supreme Court that Trump in July 2024, providing partial immunity to Trump for official actions.

They further complicated the case. Both Trump’s lawyers and the Special Counsel will submit briefs related to the immunity issue. Trump’s lawyers have until November 7 to submit their brief. Ultimately no matter how Judge Chutkan rules, the decision will be appealed and likely end up in the Supreme Court in 2025.

Of course, if Trump is elected, he will be make sure the case is dismissed.

MUNICIPAL and STATE CASES

If re-elected, Trump can not get these cases dismissed.

Hush Money Case: Status, awaiting sentencing

Donald Trump was convicted in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels near the end of the 2016 presidential campaign. This was the unanimous decision by a jury. Attorneys for Trump have the conviction be dismissed based on the Supreme Court’s ruling on Presidential Immunity case.

Judge Merchan will rule on November 14, on the immunity issue. I suspect Trump will lose this case. He will sentence Trump on November 26. I feel Judge Merchan made the right decision to delay the sentencing until after the election. Trump’s legal team always appeals any decision, and the case will not end on November 26. If fact, Trump has the legal right to appeal the conviction, after sentencing. I believe the sentence will be stayed (postponed) pending the results of the appeals.

Prosecutor Alvin Bragg did not object to the Trump’s request, and simply responded that he would accept the judge’s decision. This was again, absolutely right, as he did not want to make this case appear as a partisan case against a presidential candidate.

Trump addressed his sentencing hearing being postponed during his speech at the Fraternal Order of Police in Charlotte, North Carolina. he argued that it was postponed because people realized “there was no case,” leaning into his typical attack lines calling the case against him a “witch hunt.”

Merchan said the delay should help “avoid any appearance — however unwarranted — that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching Presidential election in which the Defendant is a candidate.” This is obviously contrary to what Trump told the police organization.

Georgia RICO Election Interference Case, Active and under appeal

A grand jury indicted Trump and 18 other defendants on August 14, 2023. The discovery that the prosecuting attorney Fani Willis was having an affair with the lead attorney, Nathan Wade, lead to hearings and ultimately a decision by the Judge McAfee that either Nathan Wade or Fani Willis should be removed from the case. Attorney Wade resigned, however Trump’s lawyers are now appealing this decision, and would like Fani Willis to resign. If the appeal is successful, the case could be dismissed. Oral arguments in this appeal have been scheduled for December 5, 2024.

A second complicating issue is the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity. Certain evidence may be excluded based on their ruling. This may result in more appeals and delays.

Four defendants have pleaded guilty. This leaves 14 defendants including Trump, to stand trial. The trial can be televised. I assume that since this is a criminal trial, Trump’s presence will be required.

Summary

Only one of the four criminal cases has gone to trial. The delays caused by pre-trial motion worked.

Soon after the election, I predict that the appellate court will reverse Judge Cannon’s dismissal of the Classified Documents case. Judge Cannon did not rule on several pre-trial motions.

Trump will, if elected, get the two federal cases dismissed. I believe this is very wrong. He should stand trial just like any other American. No one is above the law.

Stay tuned,

Dave