Month: November 2024

Ukraine stalemate and Jan 20, 2025

by Dave

Peace or war? Right now, it is war. CNN has provided an excellent summary of a dramatic week, as they call it.

Link CNN: From a call with Putin to an experimental strike, a dramatic week transforms the war in Ukraine

The war is escalating, with Russia deploying North Korean troops and firing a hypersonic missile (Oreshnik). The US is in turn, has allowed Ukraine to use US missiles to attack targets in Russia and to use land mines to defend themselves against Russian advances. There are reports that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, so it is likely Biden will expedite shipments to Ukraine. He’ll do everything possible to aid Ukraine before his term ends.

For the country of Ukraine, it is simply a fight for their survival. They became an independent country on August 24, 1991. On that day, Gorbachev was still the president, but his authority was being rapidly diminished by the popularity of Boris Yeltsin, who became president on December 25, 1991.

Ukraine has never threatened the security of Russia. It’s military is much smaller than Russia’s, so many military experts were surprised on how well Ukraine defended its country. But, Putin detests the decisions made by Gorbachev and later Yeltsin, and the Russian congress, in allowing the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Trump is the big unknown. He wants to show immediately, that he is doing what is best for America and typically opts for quick solutions, like simply disengaging from problems, rather than help solving them. The war is horrible. However, the peace may be even worse, because Putin want surrender and capture of Zelensky following by the dismantling of the government. There is no happy middle ground.

Russia hasn’t retaken Kursk region, which I believe will be critical to a ground assault on Kyiv. This is not “Biden’s” war, it is Putin’s war. And Putin will not stop with Ukraine. Biden chose to help Ukraine, but never to send US troops, which I believe was a wise decision.

Trump can hand a big victory to Putin, justifying it as saving taxpayers billions of dollars. A total of 64 billions of dollars has been spent. Victory in Ukraine means Putin can use his troops elsewhere. Most likely, to support the breakaway government in eastern Libya, led by General Khalifa Hafter. The big prize there is 46 billion barrels of oil.

Putin will use the military mercenaries, Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) to gain power within Africa. I will post later on this. They are good at taking advantage of unstable situations. There are reports that the Wagner group is operating in Haiti, as the US and other countries attempt to bring order and security to the country.

As Trump seems set on a cabinet filled with Fox News hosts, and fixated on appearances and billionaires with their own agendas rather than experience, we may soon see, it is not a American first, but an American last.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War escalates

by Dave

Russia is pressing forward on Ukraine’s eastern front. They are also fighting to retake the Kurst area, which if successful, will be the point where tanks pour across the border and go straight into Kyiv.

US policy has been changed to allow Ukraine to use land mines in order to defend their country. They also now allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack targets well within Russia. US has allowed US contractors to go into Ukraine to repair military equipment, including the F-16 fighter jet.

One can say that Russia escalated first, by deploying North Korean soldiers on the battlefield, against Ukraine.

Link: Ukraine fires several US-made longer-range missiles into Russia for the first time

It is pretty scary. Biden made it clear that we would never send American troops to Ukraine. He stated when US and Russian soldiers are fighting on the same battlefield, it is the beginning of World War III. I agree.

But is there a serious path to peace? Russia is risking thousands of Russian lives at this moment, in an aggressive escalation of the war. Their missile attacks are hitting targets within Kyiv. What Russia wants, is a simple message to US and European leaders, that they will ultimately win this war. It is not peace they desire but surrender.

As I see Trump packing his Cabinet with less than savvy conservative loyalists, including Tulsi Gabbard, nominated as Director of National Intelligence. (I am preparing a post on her) because they look good on Fox News.

I worry that Trump will sell Ukraine out and reward Russia for their invasion. President Zelensky stated that he would like the war to end through talks. It may have been a mistake, because it allows Trump to sell out Ukraine, cutting a deal between the US and Russia, that Zelensky will never be a participant.

Putin wants total victory and control of Kyiv. He would like Zelensky dead, so he can install a Ukrainian president that reports to Moscow.

It is a choice of helping Ukraine continue as a free, independent democracy, or a country ruled by a Russian puppet, like in Belarus and Chechnya. A lot rests with Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link: What to know about Tulsi Gabbard

I thought this link was factually correct and unbiased. It is interesting to note that her father switched from Republican to Democrat, while in 2022, she switched from Democrat to Republican. I will post more on Gabbard. She stated that the Ukraine invasion was a result of NATO expansion, which is really Putin’s explanation of why Russia had to invade Ukraine. He does not acknowledge the sovereignty of Ukraine.

The Ukraine War: Russian Counter-offensive

by Dave

As Trump assembles his next cabinet, Vladimir Putin has been assembling his troops for a major offensive. It is being called the counter offensive, because Ukrainian forces seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast region in August 2024.

Link: Ukrainian occupation of Kursk Oblast Region with Russia

Russia prepared for the attack by amassing approximately 50,000 troops according to recent reports. North Korea is reported to have sent 10,000 troops. It is unknown at this point how many North Koreans soldiers will be involved in combat.

What Russia was counting on, was that Ukraine would fight a purely defensive war. CNN reports:

The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.

Previously, Ukraine had air strikes inside Russia, hitting strictly military targets. Ukraine’s objective is to use the occupation of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia, in hopes of a negotiated settlement.

An old military saying is the best defense is a good offense. Russia has to divert troops it would needs to hold and advance the occupied region of Ukraine to the south of Kursk to launch the counter-offensive to re-take the Kursk region.

Russia’s Intent

The city of Sudzha, Russia is very close to the Russian border with Ukraine. With the help of North Korea, Russia will retake Sudzka, then cross over into Ukraine and take Sumy, which lies just 225 miles east of Kyiv.

So, the invasion started with Russia wanting to capture Kyiv rapidly with Belarus support, by sending tanks south over the Belarus-Ukraine border, beginning in Chernobyl. Now, it will be a drive from eastward from Sudzka, to Sumy and finally Kyiv.

US Policy

I am certain at this moment, the Biden administration is looking at everything possible to help defend Ukraine. They have allowed American contractors to enter Ukraine, to repair military equipment. Of vital importance, are the Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets. Also, per the link below, Biden is planning to send “billions of dollars” in defense aid before leaving office.

Link: Pentagon allows US military contractors to fix weapons in Ukraine

I don’t think Russia will make its move toward Sumy until after January 20, 2025. This is a rapidly evolving story, and I don’t know how well Ukraine can defend the captured territory in Russia.

The US has provided Ukraine with long range missile systems, but has not permitted Ukraine to use them against targets deep into Russia territory. It is obvious, that despite all efforts, the war escalates. Drones are being used on both sides. Fake drones are used to, in order to draw off the firing, so the real drones can be more effective.

Trump has stated often, that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine if he were president. Now, if the Sudzka invasion does takes place, it places Ukraine’s survival as an independent country at risk.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Who correctly predicted the 2024 Presidential Election?

by Dave

The forecasters were 100% right in all but 7 swing states. And of course, these seven states determined the election. My ranking allows changes to forecasts up to the day of the election, so forecasters had the advantage of exit polls.

Most of the information shown is from the 270 to win website. I also used electoral-vote.com .

Donald Trump won all 7 swing states, and won the election 312 to 226. Forecasters who predicted a Harris win, consistently erred in judging MI(15) and WI(10) as likely Democrat wins. Even the best ranked forecast (Polymarket, a betting site) made this error, causing them to gain 25 points. In my ranking, a perfect score is zero. I also penalize forecasters who include toss-ups in their final forecast. Penalty = toss-up EV’s/2.

I rate only forecasts which are published on websites, and include predictions by state. Some forecasters provide estimates of the popular vote, which I do not rate.

Also, I exclude from this table are forecasts that have toss-ups of 40 EV’s or more. See list of excluded forecasts under the table. Also, I do not show errors in states that Harris won, because there were none from these forecasts.

Only Polymarket site, a betting site, correctly predicted that Trump would win. Three websites showed Trump to be very close to winning. All forecasters who predicted Harris would win, also had her winning in PA.

I made the statement in a prior blog, that stated Trump had to win in PA in order to win the election. This was premised on the assumption that Harris would win in MI and WI. Since she lost in both of these states, Trump could have won the election even if he had lost in PA.

RankForecasterPredicted OutcomeScore Toss-upsErrors in states that Trump won
0ActualTrump won
312 to 226		00
1Polymarket- Best forecastTrump wins
287 to 251		250MI(15), WI(10)
2,3Kalshi, JHK ForecastTrump ahead
262 to 241		3234MI(15)
4270 to win, Consensus Map based on PollsTrump ahead
268 to 251		3919MI(15), WI(10)
5Split TicketHarris wins
270 to 268		440MI(15), PA(19), WI(10)
6Sabato’s Crystal BallHarris wins, 276 to 262500MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
7Electoral-VoteHarris wins
276 to 246		5816MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
8Election DailyHarris wins
292 to246		660GA(16), MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
9cnalysisHarris wins
308 to 230		720GA(16), MI(15), NC(16) NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)

I excluded forecasts from rankings because of total toss-ups exceeded 40 EV’s: 538 forecast, Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, Fox News, US News, CNN and Race to the WH. Real Clear Politics had the highest toss-ups, which included the standard seven swing states, plus NH and MN.

The only website predicting Donald Trump would win the election and provide a state by state electoral map was Polymarket. At least to my knowledge. Other websites provided multiple scenarios, showing how either candidate could win. I did not include these scenarios in my ratings.

Kalshi and JHK forecasts opted not to predict PA, NV and WI, thus they were penalized 17 points. Kalshi’s website is also a betting website. JHK uses a computer simulation model to predict outcomes.

At the very bottom, is cnalysis website, which considered all swing states except Arizona, would go to Harris, thus it erred in 6 of the 7 swing states.

If anyone knows of another forecast that I have omitted, please let me know. I am particularly interested in those who predicted Trump would win.

Final tallies are still incomplete in AZ and NV, but the other five swing states shows that they were all very close races. Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin by margins of 1.4 and 0.8%, respectively, the narrowest of all reported margins. North Carolina was won by Trump with a margin of 3.4%, the most of the 5 reported swing states.

Stay tuned,

Dave

My hopes

by Dave

Let’s start with a simple axiom: Presidents promise many things which they can not deliver.

Good example: We will build a wall and Mexico will pay for it. (no they didn’t and wall construction was more in terms of border barrier repair)

So, what I hope for is Trump actually does not do the things he promised. I want the US to actively support Ukraine. They deserve it. They have paid a high price to defend their country and keep their democracy. Russia aims to control Kyiv from Moscow, through a puppet government.

Support for NATO and other alliances are critical to halt Putin’s expansion. He will not stop at Ukraine. The America First, has all the elements of an isolationist policy, and appeasement to Putin. There are poorer European countries, such as Albania, who have not contributed as much as the US. I hope Trump does not deliver on his promise to tell Putin, “they’re yours.”

The founding of NATO is the result of two great and respected presidents, Presidents Truman and Eisenhower, a Democrat and Republican, who shared a vision of world peace through diplomacy and cooperation. The America First Initiative is likely to weaken alliances, if Trump chooses to pursue them. Russia and China will find opportunities to align with the worst of leaders in Asia and Africa, and strong economic and defense alliances will be vital.

If Trump delivers on his promises to begin a trade war with China, the result will be higher prices for goods in the US. Spending billions on hunting down undocumented workers will also drive up inflation and increase our debt. So, the America First, really backfires, and makes us America Last.

I am worried that Trump will once again, take a major step back in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Many economic measures to promote clean energy were in the Inflation Reduction Act. With Republicans in the majority in the Senate, and possibly the House, we will go back to relying on fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) for our energy needs.

Trump may pull us out of the Paris Climate Agreement, so we lose our seat at the table, in negotiating reductions in carbon emissions from all countries. Hurricane Helene and Milton should have been wake up calls, as global warming is real and can not be ignored.

So, my hope is the heated rhetoric from Trump’s rallies, has a chance to cool a bit, and the reality is that more can be accomplished by working together, rather than attacking Democrats.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Calm, Patience and Restraint

by Dave

The major news networks “call” the election, based on set rules, established prior to the election. The Secretaries of State certify the results, and this can occur much later. Candidates are certainly allowed to announce “likely” victory, well before this, and I would take all this as just politics.

I expect all networks to hold off declaring an election victory for either candidate until there is nearly no doubt as to the winner. So, patience is needed. I expect recounts in several states.

This is an extremely close election. Calm and patience is need from all. Restraint is needed from the broadcast stations.

Stay tuned,

Dave

All eyes on Pennsylvania

by Dave

Trump and Harris are very close in the polls in seven states. To re-iterate, MI and WI lean Democratic, while AZ and GA lean Republican.

So seven swing states reduces to 3: PA, NC and NV. If the “leans” predictions are right, then Trump must win PA, to win the election, plus either NC or NV. If Harris loses PA, she can win if she wins both NC and NV.

Probably best not to think of election day, but election month. Or three months if Trump loses.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Swing States to determine the election

by Dave

As of Nov 4, I have reviewed the forecasts from www.270towin.com and electorate-vote.com websites.

Two forecasts (Cook’s Report and Inside Elections ) show 93 toss-up EV’s so it is not possible to know who might win the election.

Arizona (11 EV’s) Tilts Republican based on 8 websites and NYT poll.

Based on websites: 538 Model, Fox News, Split Ticket, JHK forecast, Race to WH, fivethirtyeight, electoral-vote, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, New York Times/Sienna Polls (Trump +4)

Georgia (16 EV’s) Slight Tilt- Rep, 4 sites, 1 contrary site tilt – Dem

Based on websites: 538 model, Sabato’s, Race to White House, Electoral-vote

Contrary opinion, Tilt Democratic, based on cnalysis

Michigan (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 5 sites,

Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, Split Ticket, Race to WH, Electorate-vote

Wisconsin (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 4 sites

Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, cnalysis, electorate-vote

This leaves Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as races too close to call.

Note for Trump to win, he needs to pick up 24 more EV’s. If he can win only NC(16) + NV(6), it is not enough. Trump must win PA. Harris does not have to win PA, but if she loses PA, then she must win NC(16) and NV(6), which would put her at 273 EV’s, barely over the 270 EV’s to win.

Cnalysis is the most optimistic for Democrats, with Harris beating Trump 308 to 230. Its forecast considers Harris wins the all 3 swing states shown above (NV, NC and PA) plus GA.

Electoral-vote and Sabato’s site show Harris winning 276 to 246, with NC as a toss-up in electoral-vote and won by Trump in Sabato’s forecast.

Polymarket Odds shows Trump winning 287 to 251 by winning all 3 swing states.


The Dreaded Tied Election

Then there is the horrible scenario of a tie. Toss-up states of NC and NV are won by Trump as before, but if he can win in the Second Congressional District in NE, we have a tied election to be decided upon by Congress. Take my word for it, this is a mess.

The last I checked the 2nd Congressional District is considered a likely Democrat, so a win there would mean an extremely narrow win for Harris of 270 to 268. Note in this scenario, she wins PA and loses in NV and NC.

In sum, the presidential election of 2024 will be an extremely close race.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Vote wisely

by Dave

If you’ve followed by last several posts, you will know that I am hoping that Kamala Harris wins this election.

Recent television ads by Republicans are filled with lies. And Trump never backs down. This is just an example:

The Republican campaign highlighted a report from The New York Times that said, “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes.” The original report in the newspaper actually said, “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations.”

There is a big difference!

When confronted with his lies, there’s no apologies. For instance:

At a public event in mid-October, Trump repeated his lie that newly released federal figures show that there are 13,099 immigrants with homicide convictions who entered the country “during their administration.” CNN and others had been pointing out for two weeks that these figures are about people who entered the country over decades, including Trump’s own administration, not just under Biden and Harris.

Trump conceded he was aware of this: he said quickly that “they” tried to say the data covered a “longer” period than just the Biden presidency.

Again, it’s the big “They.” Of course he is right, and “They” are wrong.

RFK, Jr. is even worse. “They” goes back a long time, blaming just about every administration for decades, and nearly every department from the FBI, Department of Justice, CIA, EPA and more recently, USDA, HHS (Health and Human Service) and CDC. He is great working the paranoid and extremist right wing, who sees everything as one huge conspiracy.

TV ads suggest Kamala Harris would ban fracking, and that she admitted this cause gas prices would spike. Actually, this came from the Trump’s outgoing Secretary of Energy, Secretary Dan Brouillette, just before Trump left office, not from Kamala Harris or Joe Biden.

Links: Analysis: Donald Trump’s campaign of relentless lying

Link: Fact check: How Trump’s TV ads deceive viewers with misleadingly edited quotes

When Biden says something that is wrong or misinterpreted, he’s quick to correct himself. He called the comedian that referred to Puerto Rico as an island of garbage, as the real garbage. The comedian was obviously a Trump supporter, but Biden was not calling all Trumps’ supporters garbage. Just one.

But Harris, not Biden is running. I want a president who can correct themselves, and give us the truth. I have a much better chance with Kamala Harris.

So, vote wisely. Character matters, because there will be new issues in the coming years. I want a president who is deciding what is best for the American people, not the powerful conservative Republican lobbyists. Come to think about it, they constitute the real swamp, and Trump depends on their support.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Russia wants Trump to win

by Dave

Russia not only wants Trump to win, they are helping him.

Russia wants Trump to win, for two simple reasons – Ukraine and NATO. Trump has said repeatedly that he will end the war in Ukraine in a single day. Of course, he won’t, but what he can do, is withdraw our military support. Expert suggest Russia will not take over Ukraine over immediately, but will fortify the occupied territory. A massive attack on Kyiv will be several years later.

NATO operates under a mutual defense agreement, that any attack on any member state, is an attack on all member states. In February, Trump suggested he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any country that was “delinquent” because it had “failed to pay” its dues. This would make Putin very happy.

Russia is using cyberspace warfare to influence our election to help Trump’s campaign.

From Wikipedia:

“Officials from the ODNI [Office of Director of National Intelligence] and FBI have outlined Russia’s use of generative artificial intelligence to denigrate Harris with doctored and fake text, images, video, and audio content and outlined efforts to promote divisive content to spread anti-Americanism. Officials have assessed that Russia is attempting to fool unwitting Americans into spreading its messages and is imitating websites of established media and using human commentators to increase traffic towards those sites, which have content generated by artificial intelligence.”

The Department of Justice shut down 32 faked Russian websites, and Kremlin officials have either been sanctioned or indicted. Unlike Brussels’ reliance on new digital rules, Washington fell back on decades-old laws, including arcane trademark rules, to root out the attempted interference and hold individuals to account, immediately, for their role in the clandestine activity.

“The Justice Department’s message is clear,” said Attorney General Merrick Garland in announcing the indictments. “We have no tolerance for attempts by authoritarian regimes to exploit our democratic system of government.”

Links: Politico, Sept 25, 2024 The Real Way to Fight Russian Disinformation

Link: Russian interference in the 2024 United States elections

On September 17, Microsoft reported that Russian operatives had intensified attacks against Kamala Harris by creating videos highlighting “outlandish conspiracy theories” aimed at stoking racial and political divisions. Mentioned videos that had been viewed millions of times included a fake video of a Harris supporter attacking an attendee at a Trump rally and another staged video that falsely claimed Harris had paralyzed a young girl in a hit-and-run accident in 2011. The video was promoted through a fake website masquerading as a local San Francisco media outlet.

More efforts by Russia to help Trump win the election can be found in the Wikipedia link.

The extreme right wing of the Republican Party, seems to accept Putin’s interference, as long as it is against Democrats, and in particular Kamala Harris. It is not only unethical, it is illegal.

Stay tuned,

Dave