As of Nov 4, I have reviewed the forecasts from www.270towin.com and electorate-vote.com websites.

Two forecasts (Cook’s Report and Inside Elections ) show 93 toss-up EV’s so it is not possible to know who might win the election.

Arizona (11 EV’s) Tilts Republican based on 8 websites and NYT poll.

Based on websites: 538 Model, Fox News, Split Ticket, JHK forecast, Race to WH, fivethirtyeight, electoral-vote, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, New York Times/Sienna Polls (Trump +4)

Georgia (16 EV’s) Slight Tilt- Rep, 4 sites, 1 contrary site tilt – Dem

Based on websites: 538 model, Sabato’s, Race to White House, Electoral-vote

Contrary opinion, Tilt Democratic, based on cnalysis

Michigan (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 5 sites,

Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, Split Ticket, Race to WH, Electorate-vote

Wisconsin (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 4 sites

Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, cnalysis, electorate-vote

This leaves Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as races too close to call.

Note for Trump to win, he needs to pick up 24 more EV’s. If he can win only NC(16) + NV(6), it is not enough. Trump must win PA. Harris does not have to win PA, but if she loses PA, then she must win NC(16) and NV(6), which would put her at 273 EV’s, barely over the 270 EV’s to win.

Cnalysis is the most optimistic for Democrats, with Harris beating Trump 308 to 230. Its forecast considers Harris wins the all 3 swing states shown above (NV, NC and PA) plus GA.

Electoral-vote and Sabato’s site show Harris winning 276 to 246, with NC as a toss-up in electoral-vote and won by Trump in Sabato’s forecast.

Polymarket Odds shows Trump winning 287 to 251 by winning all 3 swing states.

The Dreaded Tied Election

Then there is the horrible scenario of a tie. Toss-up states of NC and NV are won by Trump as before, but if he can win in the Second Congressional District in NE, we have a tied election to be decided upon by Congress. Take my word for it, this is a mess.

The last I checked the 2nd Congressional District is considered a likely Democrat, so a win there would mean an extremely narrow win for Harris of 270 to 268. Note in this scenario, she wins PA and loses in NV and NC.

In sum, the presidential election of 2024 will be an extremely close race.

Stay tuned,

Dave