The forecasters were 100% right in all but 7 swing states. And of course, these seven states determined the election. My ranking allows changes to forecasts up to the day of the election, so forecasters had the advantage of exit polls.

Most of the information shown is from the 270 to win website. I also used electoral-vote.com .

Donald Trump won all 7 swing states, and won the election 312 to 226. Forecasters who predicted a Harris win, consistently erred in judging MI(15) and WI(10) as likely Democrat wins. Even the best ranked forecast (Polymarket, a betting site) made this error, causing them to gain 25 points. In my ranking, a perfect score is zero. I also penalize forecasters who include toss-ups in their final forecast. Penalty = toss-up EV’s/2.

I rate only forecasts which are published on websites, and include predictions by state. Some forecasters provide estimates of the popular vote, which I do not rate.

Also, I exclude from this table are forecasts that have toss-ups of 40 EV’s or more. See list of excluded forecasts under the table. Also, I do not show errors in states that Harris won, because there were none from these forecasts.

Only Polymarket site, a betting site, correctly predicted that Trump would win. Three websites showed Trump to be very close to winning. All forecasters who predicted Harris would win, also had her winning in PA.

I made the statement in a prior blog, that stated Trump had to win in PA in order to win the election. This was premised on the assumption that Harris would win in MI and WI. Since she lost in both of these states, Trump could have won the election even if he had lost in PA.

Rank	Forecaster	Predicted Outcome	Score	Toss-ups	Errors in states that Trump won
0	Actual	Trump won 312 to 226	0	0
1	Polymarket- Best forecast	Trump wins 287 to 251	25	0	MI(15), WI(10)
2,3	Kalshi, JHK Forecast	Trump ahead 262 to 241	32	34	MI(15)
4	270 to win, Consensus Map based on Polls	Trump ahead 268 to 251	39	19	MI(15), WI(10)
5	Split Ticket	Harris wins 270 to 268	44	0	MI(15), PA(19), WI(10)
6	Sabato’s Crystal Ball	Harris wins, 276 to 262	50	0	MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
7	Electoral-Vote	Harris wins 276 to 246	58	16	MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
8	Election Daily	Harris wins 292 to246	66	0	GA(16), MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
9	cnalysis	Harris wins 308 to 230	72	0	GA(16), MI(15), NC(16) NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)

I excluded forecasts from rankings because of total toss-ups exceeded 40 EV’s: 538 forecast, Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, Fox News, US News, CNN and Race to the WH. Real Clear Politics had the highest toss-ups, which included the standard seven swing states, plus NH and MN.

The only website predicting Donald Trump would win the election and provide a state by state electoral map was Polymarket. At least to my knowledge. Other websites provided multiple scenarios, showing how either candidate could win. I did not include these scenarios in my ratings.

Kalshi and JHK forecasts opted not to predict PA, NV and WI, thus they were penalized 17 points. Kalshi’s website is also a betting website. JHK uses a computer simulation model to predict outcomes.

At the very bottom, is cnalysis website, which considered all swing states except Arizona, would go to Harris, thus it erred in 6 of the 7 swing states.

If anyone knows of another forecast that I have omitted, please let me know. I am particularly interested in those who predicted Trump would win.

Final tallies are still incomplete in AZ and NV, but the other five swing states shows that they were all very close races. Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin by margins of 1.4 and 0.8%, respectively, the narrowest of all reported margins. North Carolina was won by Trump with a margin of 3.4%, the most of the 5 reported swing states.

Stay tuned,

Dave