As Trump assembles his next cabinet, Vladimir Putin has been assembling his troops for a major offensive. It is being called the counter offensive, because Ukrainian forces seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast region in August 2024.

Link: Ukrainian occupation of Kursk Oblast Region with Russia

Russia prepared for the attack by amassing approximately 50,000 troops according to recent reports. North Korea is reported to have sent 10,000 troops. It is unknown at this point how many North Koreans soldiers will be involved in combat.

What Russia was counting on, was that Ukraine would fight a purely defensive war. CNN reports:

The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.

Previously, Ukraine had air strikes inside Russia, hitting strictly military targets. Ukraine’s objective is to use the occupation of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia, in hopes of a negotiated settlement.

An old military saying is the best defense is a good offense. Russia has to divert troops it would needs to hold and advance the occupied region of Ukraine to the south of Kursk to launch the counter-offensive to re-take the Kursk region.

Russia’s Intent

The city of Sudzha, Russia is very close to the Russian border with Ukraine. With the help of North Korea, Russia will retake Sudzka, then cross over into Ukraine and take Sumy, which lies just 225 miles east of Kyiv.

So, the invasion started with Russia wanting to capture Kyiv rapidly with Belarus support, by sending tanks south over the Belarus-Ukraine border, beginning in Chernobyl. Now, it will be a drive from eastward from Sudzka, to Sumy and finally Kyiv.

US Policy

I am certain at this moment, the Biden administration is looking at everything possible to help defend Ukraine. They have allowed American contractors to enter Ukraine, to repair military equipment. Of vital importance, are the Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets. Also, per the link below, Biden is planning to send “billions of dollars” in defense aid before leaving office.

Link: Pentagon allows US military contractors to fix weapons in Ukraine

I don’t think Russia will make its move toward Sumy until after January 20, 2025. This is a rapidly evolving story, and I don’t know how well Ukraine can defend the captured territory in Russia.

The US has provided Ukraine with long range missile systems, but has not permitted Ukraine to use them against targets deep into Russia territory. It is obvious, that despite all efforts, the war escalates. Drones are being used on both sides. Fake drones are used to, in order to draw off the firing, so the real drones can be more effective.

Trump has stated often, that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine if he were president. Now, if the Sudzka invasion does takes place, it places Ukraine’s survival as an independent country at risk.

Stay tuned,

Dave