Every day, Russia is in control of key territory, and ultimately this is what Putin wants. It a matter of square kilometers of territory under control, rather than casualties on the ground or successful assaults using missiles and drones, that demonstrates Russia’s success.
The initial occupation took place in the Donetsk region. Russia solidly controls Crimea as well. They have now extended their reach further to central Ukraine by occupying parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region, or Dnipro for short. So, their strategy is fairly easy to see on a map, taking Ukraine, bit by bit, with Sumy and Kharkiv in the north, Dnipro in the central region and Odesa in the south.
Ukraine military denies the Russian advance into Dnipro, so nothing is known for certain. See link:
Putin’s negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, in the so-called “Peace Memorandum” is asking for Ukraine to cede more territory than the 20% controlled by Russia and a guarantee from the US that Ukraine will never join NATO. It demands that Ukraine recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as well as Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts — none of which are fully under Moscow’s control.
I would suggest Putin’s negotiator told Zelensky, that he knew it would be extreme difficult to accept the terms, but this might be his only option, since the goal is total occupation.
Russia admitted its ‘peace memorandum’ is an ultimatum Kyiv won’t accept, Zelensky says
The talks are now focus on prisoner exchanges, return of Ukrainian children and remains of dead soldiers rather than a solution to the conflict.
Russia is getting support for their invasion from Iran, which is selling them drones. North Korea has sent troops to help Russia win. China is also supplying military equipment.
Interestingly, the Israel-Iran conflict may mean fewer drones being sent to Russia.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Links:
The Institute of the Study of War, continues to be the best source of detailed information.
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