Tariffs on imports result in reciprocal tariffs. So, if Friday, August 1, the 50% tariffs go into effect, it is a lose-lose situation.
The trial will go forward. The Supreme Court in Brazil can act similarly to a trial court in the US, setting rules on what the accused can do outside of the courtroom. Bolsonaro protested his arrest on social media, in violation of a court order. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the trial, could have arrested Bolsonaro, but declined stating it was an isolated violation. He stated that Bolsonaro may participate in interviews with the news media.
In the trial, prosecutors believe there is sufficient evidence to support a radical plan to bring Bolsonaro back into power, through a declaration of a national emergency as a result of the attack on the Capital. Military leaders who supported Bolsonaro would then step in, forcing Lula out of office.
The charges against Bolsonaro are for actions he took while out of office, so he can not claim presidential immunity as Trump did.
This is a very dynamic situation. The easiest way to cool things off is for Trump to push back the deadline. Lula can not drop the charges, but perhaps there are means to make the judicial process and evidence presented as transparent as possible.
But, Trump can dial up the heat, because Brazil buys petroleum products from Russia. As part of new sanctions against Russia, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against countries that buy Russian oil, and Brazil certainly could be included in this group, which includes China and India.
I have not read anything that indicates Trump’s likely next move, although my thinking is that he will try to cool off the situation. He may not like it, but he is the TACO president (Trump always chickens out).
Trump feels he can use tariffs to make countries do what he says. Generally, Brazil is considered a good ally of the US, pretty much like Canada. Unlike Canada and Mexico, Brazil has a trade surplus with the US. so there is no basis for tariffs based on unequal trade. It is really amazing how Trump easily turns our allies into our enemies. Germany, France, Mexico, Canada and now Brazil. I could add the entire EU, as he’s threaten them with tariffs.
Trump has threatened 50% on all Brazilian exports due to the arrest of the former president, Jair Bolsonaro on charges that he was leading an armed criminal organization in an attack of the capital on January 8, 2023. Brazil has responded that they will immediately reciprocate with equal tariffs on US goods.
Trump’s idea is the threat of massive tariffs can result in world leaders come crawling to Trump and begging for mercy. It is a fantasy. But, it seems to play well to his base.
Background
Jair Bolsonaro was President of Brazil from January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2023. He ran for re-election in November 2022, and lost to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a very close election. It was a clash between right wing factions (Bolsonaro) and left wing (Lula). January 1, 2023 was President elect Lula’s inauguration and it was a calm day, with a message of rebuilding and unity. See link below:
But a storm was brewing. Busloads of Bolsonaro supporters began arriving in Brasilia following inauguration day. The attacks (or insurrection or attempted coup by radical supporters) took place in government buildings on January 8. See link below:
The attacks were investigated and many arrests were made. Prosecutors in March 2025 felt they had enough evidence to charge Jair Bolsonaro with being part of the planning of the attack. It was reported by ABC News as follows:
“The prosecution accuses Bolsonaro of leading an armed criminal organization, attempting to stage a coup and attempting the violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, aggravated damage, and deterioration of listed heritage sites.
A federal police investigation placed Bolsonaro at the top of a criminal organization that had been active since at least 2021. Police say that after Bolsonaro’s loss to Lula, the organization conspired to overturn the election result.
Part of that plot included a plan to kill Lula and a Supreme Court justice, the prosecution alleges. It also says that the Jan. 8 riot when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked top government buildings a week after Lula took office was an attempt to force military intervention and oust the new president.”
Trump announced the proposed 50% tariffs on Brazil on July 9 despite a U.S. trade surplus with the country – lining it up for one of the world’s very highest such levies, close to China’s 55% rate. Brazil’s President Lula responded that he did not have the authority to drop charges against Bolsonaro.
President Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes responses
Brazil’s President Lula responded that he did not have the authority to drop charges against Bolsonaro. Unlike the US, Brazil doesn’t have a Special Prosecutor within the Executive branch which can investigate crimes of government officials. But Special Prosecutors can be dismissed very easily, and the charges dropped.
The Brazilian Supreme Court Justice does not take orders from President Lula and has authority to investigate, charge and adjudicate certain violations of federal law. It is designed to keep rich and powerful people honest.
On July 11, 2025, the Supreme Court of Brazil forced Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor and conducted a search of his home. Justice Alexandre de Moraes considers Bolsonaro a flight risk. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, a Brazilian Congressman, has been living in Texas since February and lobbying the White House to intervene.
Under court orders, Bolsonaro must remain in his home during nights and weekends, may not have any contact with foreign officials. He is barred from social media.
Hours later, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, joined the fray by posting on X, that he was revoking visas of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes as well as his immediate family members and allies. A total of 8 Supreme Court Justices had their visas revoked according to O Globo.
If Trump thought that President Lula would cave in, he was mistaken. Trump stated the 50% tariffs would begin on August 1. President Lula response is simple, as shown below, O Brasil e dos brasileiros, or “Brazil belongs to its people.” Two can play the MAGA game! But Lula is standing his ground.
“Lula, who had been facing growing public disillusionment and an uphill battle to win re-election next year, has enjoyed a bounce in the polls since Trump launched his trade war, the brunt of which will be borne by coffee producers and cattle ranchers in Bolsonaro-voting regions, such as São Paulo.”
The trial of Bolsonaro is strictly an internal affair, and the US has no right to interfere. Bloomberg reports that the White House is looking for some legal justification.
There are many other exports from Brazil which will be impacted. Brazil exported 42.3 billion dollars of goods and services to the US last year.
A panel of judges will hear the case against Bolsonaro. They will decide if Bolsonaro is guilty of the charges, and will likely give their verdict before the end of the year.
Fed Reserves Chief Jay Powell must have gone crazy, spending 2.5 billion dollars to renovate the Federal Reserves building! Let’s get rid of him. Go Bill Pulte, get Powell!
So, there are two stories. First is why the renovations are so expensive. Second one is who is Bill Pulte and why does he want to go after Jay Powell.
“Donald Trump’s allies are attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the expensive project. That’s the price he’s paying for building in a swamp.” The Federal Reserves building was built in 1937 and you can’t exactly move it or build it somewhere else.
Foundation work for the Fed expansion was so difficult that contractors responsible for the job received a 2025 award for “excellence in the face of adversity” from the Washington Building Congress, a building trades association.
Any evidence of mismanagement or fraud, as White House officials have suggested, could prove a useful pretext for removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose resistance to cutting interest rates this year has angered the president.
But the price tag has less to do with “ostentatious” features than the challenges of building — particularly underground — in what was once a swamp near the Tidal Basin along the Potomac River.
Bill Pulte is Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. His grandfather, William Pulte, the founder of Pulte Homes, past away in 2018. His appointment was approved by the Senate along party lines. He immediately began gutting the agency, primarily the employees enforcing the Fair Housing Act, which prohibits discrimination in the sale and rental of property. Wikipedia states, “Pulte’s job cuts targeted a department that oversaw fair housing rules for the Federal Home Loan Bank system.”
Prior to the Fair Housing Act, real estate agents routinely kept blacks out of buying homes in white neighborhoods.
I don’t know if Bill Pulte knows anything about the Federal Reserves renovation in the short time he has been Director of FHFA. Obviously, he knows Trump wants to get rid of Powell, and is willing to make accusations of misconduct to help Trump fire Powell for cause. The Washington Post has reported that Pulte wrote a draft letter, claiming mismanagement of the renovations, just in case Trump decides to fire Powell for cause. It’s really just pre-text as Trump wants to be end the independence of the Federal Reserve Board and future interest decisions.
Pulte will be very busy with Trump’s attempt to privatize the Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac loan agencies. It is a highly contentious and political issue. I felt USA Today gave a balanced review of privatization of these agencies.
According to USA Today, “Privatization may also come with tighter lending standards, making it more difficult for those with modest incomes and limited credit histories to secure loans.”
Also per Wikipedia:
In April, Pulte referred Letitia James, the attorney general of New York, to attorney general Pam Bondi and deputy attorney general Todd Blanche for criminal prosecution, alleging that James “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire government backed assistance and loans and more favorable loan terms.” The following month, The Washington Post reported that the Department of Justice was investigating James.
Todd Blanche represented Trump in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial. He was found guilty of 34 felony counts. Trump was let off easy by the judge as he did not have to pay a fine, be on probation or jail time. The latter would have been difficult since sentencing occurred after he was re-elected. The case is still under appeal.
If Trump fires Jerome Powell on a pile of false accusations, the Democrats will be making the case that the Fed independence is dead.
Trump has given Russia 50 days to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or else he will go ahead with severe sanctions to make sure Russia can not profit from sale of their oil. To do so, he must sanction countries that are buying Russian oil. Russia profits from selling fossil fuels, namely oil, natural gas, coal, LNG (liquified natural gas), and petroleum products. In total, the sale of these fuels result in sales of 687 million dollars per day, according to the CREA. On their website, sales are reported in Euros, and I have converted them to dollars.
The specific large buyers of oil and gas are China, India and Turkiye. So, why not just tell these countries to stop buying fossil fuels from Russia until Putin stops the war?
I’ll start with China, which many economists already knew that tariffs would likely hurt the US economy more than China’s. President Xi Jingping did not open up discussions with the US immediately as Trump threatened China. Instead, he flew to Vietnam and other trading partners in a move to show Trump, Chinese products don’t have to be sold in the US. See link below:
Next up is India which is close to a trade deal. Not something Trump will want to upset. India greatly increased its imports of oil from Russia after 2022, because it could buy the oil at discounted prices. India recognized Ukraine in 1991, yet does not support international sanctions against Russia.
Finally Turkiye (note the correct spelling) which is part of NATO, and has provided military equipment to Ukraine. US needs. But, they will continue to buy Russian oil. There has been many issues in the past including Turkiye’s purchase of military defense weapons, similar to Patriot missiles, from Russia. I think Trump will see Turkiye as an ally in the Ukraine war, and will not dare sanction them for their purchase of Russian oil.
It’s interesting, because Trump has given Russia 50 days to find peace in Ukraine, or else he will sanction the buyers of fossil fuels. China and India are the largest buyers with each country importing about 4.1 billion dollars of oil per month. These are secondary sanctions to be added to the tariffs.
So, who else is sanctionable? Hungary and Slovenia import Russian oil, each around 200 million per month. Relative to China, India and Turkiye, these are not sizeable purchases. If Trump goes beyond oil, there are other fossil fuels, like LNG, and petroleum products. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the EU and Brazil could join the list of sanctionable countries.
Sanctioning Brazil will not happen. Remember Trump has already threatened Brazil with a 50% tariff on all goods, because they are putting ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on trial. President Lula has responded, stating that Brazil would retaliate with 50% tariffs. So, if tariffs go to 150% because of their purchase of petroleum products, Brazil would retaliate with 150% tariffs. And both countries would be losers, but the US would be the bigger loser, because we have a trade surplus with Brazil.
Using sanctions, tariffs or embargos as a means of forcing countries to change policy can hurt the US more than the targeted country.
At the very end of the CREA analysis, they note three ways to Ukrainian allies can “tighten the screws” on Russia’s oil exports. I think it is a very thoughtful analysis, as none of these measures have any means of immediate retaliation, and they would be directed at Russia rather than China, India and Turkiye.
Lower the Price Cap established by the EU sanctions to $30/bbl.
Restrict the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers & plug the refining loophole. This one gets complicated so it’s best to defer to the CREA analysis.
Stronger enforcement and monitoring
The tanker shipments of crude can be monitored. Trump likes actions he can take unilaterally, but they generally are not successful. Biden thought he could cripple Putin with severe sanctions, at the onset of the war in Feb 2022. It didn’t work.
Trump and Putin talked, and then hours later, Russia launched its largest attack on Kyiv, with a swarm estimated at 730 drones and missiles. Trump realized that his efforts to broker a cease fire were absolutely gone.
Trump has said he will not be blocking the military aid approved by the Biden administration in a US stockpile drawdown.
Trump proposed NATO buy the US military equipment for Ukraine. NATO seems to support the proposal. He is also proposing very high tariffs on country’s buying Russian oil. It seems to be all in the right direction.
Putin appears to be undeterred. Recent military actions taken by both sides are listed in the Al-Jazeera post. Russia appears to be occupying more territory.
I am most worried about China, Iran and North Korea’s involvement in the war. North Korea is sending fresh troops to Ukraine, to join Putin’s mercenary force while the other countries produce military equipment. It is turning, more and more, into a proxy war.
But, finally the US looks like it’s fighting on the right side.
Given the horrific news of the Texas flood, it is understandable that CNN and others don’t make Putin’s war in Ukraine headline news. This CNN news story, posted July 4, was accurate and well done.
This article helps fill in more details and confirms other details in my post. Russia’s ballistic missile attacks have done massive damage in Ukraine. And the shortage of these missiles in Ukraine makes retaliation impossible. Russia fired as many as 80 ballistic missiles in June. The US cutoff of these missiles means more Ukrainians will die. Their homes and the cities where they live will be reduced to rubble. They will be forced to flee.
The June 2025 escalation of the war is confirmed in the CNN post. On June 4, Trump cut off supplying a small but critical component of Ukraine’s defenses, called a “proximity fuze.” This device triggers an anti-drone drone to explode when it is close to its target, making it much more effective. Prior to that, Trump stated on May 17, 2025, that Ukraine was just “pissing away” billions of dollars in aid in an interview with Fox News.
CNN confirmed that there’s is no quick solution to the US cut off of military equipment by Trump. Production of Patriot systems requires time. CNN also confirmed that halting deliveries of the Patriot missiles because they are desparately needed elsewhere, is according to experts, not true.
I feel sorry for the lives lost and homes destroyed in Texas. The US must help the victims of the flood recover and rebuild. Ukraine faces a Texas style disaster on a daily basis. Putin’s objective is not to control a small piece of Ukraine, but the entire country. They deserve our help.
War doesn’t take a holiday. The famous “peace talks” started in Istanbul were a joke. Russia participated only because he wanted to keep Trump happy, with the idea that Ukraine did not deserve our support. In May, Putin increased significantly the attacks from around 100-150 attacks per day, to more than 400 drone and missile attacks. On July 4, the highest number of attacks occurred since the war began in February 2022 with 550 missile and drone attacks, hours after Putin and Trump talked.
The two best sources of information are the Guardian and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Institute is a non-profit organization, does a much better job than anyone else in following the war. See links below:
ISW reports in the July 4 attack, 208 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Excellent news. Ukraine also uses interceptor drones to stop attacks. When there are swarms of over 500 drones coming at once, particularly the Shahad high velocity drones, intercepting them can be difficult. See link at end from Kyiv Independent. Patriot missiles would be the defense weapon of choice, but they are by far the most expensive and in very short supply – thank you Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump.
Iran and China support Putin because their industries benefit. See ISW link. “Ukrainian investigators discovered components manufactured at the Chinese Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing Company in Russian Geran-type drones (Russian analogue of the Iranian Shahed drone) recovered in Kyiv City.”
US is deliberately aiding Putin’s offense by halting the delivery of Patriot missile systems already bought by the US. Germany is exploring the option of buying the Patriots from the US and giving them to Ukraine (see link above). I don’t think it will go far, because it clashes with Hegseth false claim that the Patriots are needed for the US security.
Hegseth will eventually have to answer to Congress of why he is making the destruction of Kyiv so much easier for Putin.
Putin’s goal is occupation of all of Ukraine. Putin is setting up for a multi-prong attack from the south, east and north (through Belarus) with an infantry heavily supported by North Korea. Russia started the war through an attack in Belarus and their recent buildup now is all part of Putin’s occupation of Ukraine. See link below:
Putin was quoted as saying, “We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.” An apt response would be: “Be careful where you step, it could be your last one.”
The US should be 100% behind Ukraine as they resist the attacks from Russia. So far, Hegseth has reversed course, and denied the delivery of urgently needed defense equipment.
The US is halting the shipment of defensive Patriot missiles to Ukraine. It is a clear sign that the US is letting Russia win this war. Ukraine desperately needs these missiles to defend their cities. Ukraine desparately needs these missiles to defend its cities.
The Patriot missiles were approved by Congress as part of a 66 billion dollar aid agreement for Ukraine under President Biden. As reported in the news, some Patriot missiles were already shipped to Ukraine, but Hegseth froze the transfer of custody from the US to Ukraine.
War is brutal. They count fatalities, but many die because medical facilities have been bombed and their wounds can’t be treated. Putin has indiscriminately bombed apartment buildings, hospitals, schools and power stations, to force Ukrainians to surrender.
Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, supported this decision, by stating that the stockpiles of Patriot missile systems had become very low in the US. This was immediately contradicted by an analysis conducted by the military, that our stockpile of Patriot missiles were no lower than in the past.
Pete Hegseth doesn’t mind lying, because this is exactly what his boss does. In fact, it is what Trump expects from his Cabinet secretaries. Put an MAGA cap on, smile to the camera, and talk about supporting America’s readiness and greatness are all part of the game.
The above link states that the announcement blindsided the State Department, European leaders, members of Congress and Ukraine.
We do not know what Putin and Trump discussed yesterday, but the results are pretty evident.
Last night’s attack was done with 538 drones and 11 missiles. The Kinzhal missiles were used in these attacks, which only a Patriot missile could shoot down. Well, if they are lucky. This attack occurred within hours of the Trump-Putin conversation.
Trump doesn’t care that Hegseth is lying. He doesn’t care if CNN and New York Times journalists, are on the spot and can show the damage to residential areas. Fox News will report on their website, stories about illegal immigration or Iran, not last night’s brutal attack on Kyiv and other major cities.
Trump is all about appearances and how this plays out in the media. What I am certain Putin let Trump know, is that they are the rightful owners of Ukraine and that Ukraine will be better off with a change in management after Zelensky is gone. What Putin wanted from Trump, is simply let Russia finish off Ukraine without any additional sanctions. Trump is on a rampage to punish all our trading partners with sanctions which are essentially embargos but it’s hands off on Russia.
Putin must be very happy. He can attack Ukraine with Impunity. It’s reported that North Korea is sending 30,000 troops to support Russia. Of course they are getting paid. Iran is supplying drones, and Iran must be very happy to sell them to Russia. China is also aiding Russia with military equipment.
His [Putin} eye still very much on the prize, Putin said last week: “We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.”
You need to attack with missiles to destroy and occupy a country. Blowing up a Patriot missile systems (missiles, radar and launcher) lets Russia achieve complete air superiority. Putin’s strategy is very simple, drain Ukraine’s stockpile of their Patriot missiles, achieve complete air superiority and roll into Kyiv with tanks.
There will be celebrations in Washington on this Fourth of July holiday. The media will cover the signing of the Big Beautiful/Ugly Bill. But there will be no celebration in Ukraine.
Thank Trump for making America weaker than ever. Trump is America’s gift to Putin.
There were numerous other stories, which give a real good idea of Trump’s thinking. Steve Bannon was fired by Trump in this first term, but was recently spotted entering the White House. He said what Trump needed to do is “flood the zone” as explained below:
Republicans have always been very strong on stopping Russian expansion. Marco Rubio as Florida’s senator would make passionate speeches about the inhumanity and loss of democracy under the autocratic regimes of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. These countries, along with North Korea, China and Iran are the allies of Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. Will our Secretary of State be silenced by Trump?
There is plenty of commentary on the Big, Beautiful Bill, or the Big Bad Bill. Or Big Horrible Bill. Quick summary: Many Senate Republicans favor it, because it advances Trump’s agenda. Democrats will vote against it, for the same reason. We will simply refer to it as BBB.
There are millions of Americans who are more focused whether Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs will be found guilty of sex trafficking or the Bezos-Sanchez dream wedding in Venice. I don’t blame them. I haven’t followed either story, but here’s my take anyway. Combs is very guilty. On the wedding thing, Forbes recently posted that they think it costs around 25 million dollars. It was held on the island of San Giorgio Maggiore. Whether they were already married is open for debate.
Back to our real story. What has emerged as a weird sticking point is raising the debt ceiling by another 4 to 5 trillion dollars. The House version says 4 trillion, and the Senate version say 5 trillion. I call it weird, because Elizabeth Warren, the ardent Democrat, who clearly would call it the Big Horrible Bill, would eliminate the debt ceiling entirely. So, would Trump and on this point, they are both right!
Here’s Warren’s exact words:
“It is possible that hell has frozen over. President Trump and I agree on something very important: Abolish the debt limit. The debt limit is a political tool that allows the minority party to threaten economic collapse, forcing Congress to negotiate its demands. It serves no other function. None. It has no impact on spending, and it doesn’t restrain the growth of the national debt.
“I’ve pushed publicly and privately, whether Democrats or Republicans have been in charge, to scrap the debt ceiling permanently. Now, with Mr. Trump’s support, our country could finally get rid of this form of brinkmanship that has, for decades, threatened the stability of our economy.
The debt limit caps the amount of money the U.S. government can borrow. If the government hits the limit before Congress authorizes an increase, the U.S. would default on its debt. That means not making interest payments on U.S. bonds, not paying our military or halting Social Security checks. Chaos in the financial markets could cause millions of Americans to lose their jobs, while the cost of home mortgages and car loans would skyrocket. In short, we would create a self-inflicted financial crisis.”
It is very weird, as both Elon Musk and Rand Paul, make this a real sticking point for passage. Musk obviously in not a Senator, but he has made it his mission to see that the BBB is defeated by blasting away on Twitter. I’m saying this is weird, because both Musk and Paul are using the popular misconception of what the debt ceiling is, to support their views.
It is getting really nasty on social media as Musk described the BBB as follows:
“pork-filled spending bill that will massively increase the budget deficit and burden American citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt.”
Trump is parting ways with traditional Republicans, who reasoned that the best way for our economy to grow, was with less government intervention. Now, Trump promotes tariffs, which can artificially raise the price of US products to benefit manufacturers and hurt consumers, until the day when they are gone.
He would like to sack the head of the Federal Reserve, so he can cut rates, further fueling inflation, perhaps not immediately, but he would leave a terrible mess for the next administration. This is absolutely the worse government interference imaginable as it allows a president to play politics with interest rates. All to achieve very short term gain.
The national deficit and economic growth not the debt ceiling is what we should be worried about, and these will be impacted by the BBB and tariffs. Warren, Trump and others (like myself) want the debt ceiling gone, but simply raising it to 5 trillion dollars, will keep it from being a political bargaining chip in the short term.
I find it also bizarre that both Musk and Paul would make claims about raising the debt ceiling, completely contrary to statements from the US Treasury, under both Democratic and Republican presidents. But, at least with Senator Rand Paul, he’s had years of practice.
Don’t raise it, scrap it for the benefit of the current and future presidents.
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