Tariffs on imports result in reciprocal tariffs. So, if Friday, August 1, the 50% tariffs go into effect, it is a lose-lose situation.

The trial will go forward. The Supreme Court in Brazil can act similarly to a trial court in the US, setting rules on what the accused can do outside of the courtroom. Bolsonaro protested his arrest on social media, in violation of a court order. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the trial, could have arrested Bolsonaro, but declined stating it was an isolated violation. He stated that Bolsonaro may participate in interviews with the news media.

In the trial, prosecutors believe there is sufficient evidence to support a radical plan to bring Bolsonaro back into power, through a declaration of a national emergency as a result of the attack on the Capital. Military leaders who supported Bolsonaro would then step in, forcing Lula out of office.

The charges against Bolsonaro are for actions he took while out of office, so he can not claim presidential immunity as Trump did.

This is a very dynamic situation. The easiest way to cool things off is for Trump to push back the deadline. Lula can not drop the charges, but perhaps there are means to make the judicial process and evidence presented as transparent as possible.

But, Trump can dial up the heat, because Brazil buys petroleum products from Russia. As part of new sanctions against Russia, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against countries that buy Russian oil, and Brazil certainly could be included in this group, which includes China and India.

I have not read anything that indicates Trump’s likely next move, although my thinking is that he will try to cool off the situation. He may not like it, but he is the TACO president (Trump always chickens out).

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link: Brazil’s Supreme Court declines to arrest Bolsonaro over social media ban