Month: September 2025

Cuban and North Korean Mercenary forces

by Dave

Russia is paying citizens of North Korea and Cuba to fight, and die on the battlefields of Ukraine. Why? Because the desperate economic conditions in these countries means the $2000 per month salary looks good. As explained in the link, many of them are killed within five months, and there are grieving families in Russia when they are gone. Apparently, Russia only says they are missing, not dead.

Andriy Yusov is a Ukrainian spokeperson for the Ukrainian intelligence. He shared information with US Representatives at a briefing on the use of mercenaries in Ukraine.

“Taking into account the totalitarian nature of Cuban regimes, such recruitment could not have taken part without the blessing of the Cuban regime,” Yusov said. He also added many recruits are victims of fraud, with some being held even after their contracts expire.

Ukraine estimates that 20,000 foreign mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine. See September 19 link: Cuba sends thousands of its people to fight for Russia in war with Ukraine, say Ukrainian officials

But, estimates vary on how many Cubans and North Koreans are currently fighting in Ukraine. From the link above, Ukrainian intelligences estimates more than 1,000 Cubans mercenaries have signed contracts to fight in Ukraine. North Korea initially supplied 10,000 troops in fall of 2024, of which it is believed that 4,000 have died in combat. The meeting between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kim Jong-un in North Korea on July 6, 2025 was pivotal, as a few day later North Korea pledged to triple the number of troops, to 25,000 to 30,000. It is unknown how many North Koreans Kim Jong-un will actually send to Ukraine. See link below:

The Second North Korean Wave in Ukraine: What Next as Pyongyang’s Troops Arrive on Russia’s Front Lines?

The drone and missile aerial war continues with one of the largest “swarm” attacks ever. See link below:

Russia attacks Ukraine with one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, killing four and injuring dozens

I will end on a positive note, and that is the Moldova elections went in favor of the pro-EU party despite Russia’s attempt to sway the population. See link:

Moldova’s ruling pro-EU party wins election marred by claims of Russian meddling

This is not a cold war, but a hot one. Had pro-Russian party won the elections, Russia would have a strong base, SW of Ukraine, to continue its invasion of Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Our focus on Ukraine

by Dave

We will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine. I know there are many news stories out there. Last week Charlie Kirk, today it is the shooting at the Dallas ICE facility plus the indictment of James Comey.

Absolutely, the shootings are tragic events, and nothing is ever gained. Human life is precious. I feel for the survivors, the widows and children. I have faith that the police will find the shooter who killed an immigrant and wounded others at the Dallas facility.

Tragic events are happening in Gaza now, and it is extremely sad. A war that targets the general population is called genocide and this is an international crime. I don’t see how this advances peace.

James Comey will have his day in court. The Justice Department felt there was sufficient evidence to charge James Comey. The Grand Jury agreed with indicting him on two counts. It will take months to resolve. It is a felony crime to give false testimony to Congress. He is innocent of all charges until proved guilty in a court of law. Everyone, including Donald Trump wants to rush to judgement and have him tried in the media.

So, I will be posting more on the Ukraine war, and avoid the more popular “news de jour” with contrasting points of views from Fox, MSNBC, CNN and of course, the usual noise (to put it mildly) from social media.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Russia’s Math and Politics in Winning the War

by Dave

Russia wants to intensify their attack, after nearly a million Russians have been killed, captured or injured. They want to scale up, but it is increasingly clear this is a war on a budget. But the goal is the same, total control of Ukraine.

First the Math. Offense is much cheaper than defense. Shooting down a drone that costs $80,000 with a missile that costs 1 to 2 million dollars, is not economical. In fact, the defenders of a country will soon go broke this way. It is why Ukraine is increasingly going on the offense – and Russia is well aware of this.

In the prior posting, I discussed the use of massive swarms of missiles and drones. Missiles are very expensive compared to drones, so they are a small but lethal part of the attack. Russia is deploying hypersonic ballistic missiles, “normal” ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles in their attack in Ukraine.

Cruise missiles stay low to the ground to avoid detection. They use a combination of different navigation systems, including terrain contour matching (using onboard imaging with stored maps) to make course corrections. They are accurate to 5 to 7 meters of their target.

Hypersonic ballistic missiles are the most expensive, costing between 10 to 15 million dollars. The next generation of hypersonic missiles are really scary things, combining high speed and maneuverability to avoid being shot down. So, the super expensive Patriot missile systems, which Ukraine has only 6 to 8 launchers and been begging for more, may be no match if the aerial assault uses hypersonic missiles.

Ballistic missiles that can destroy Patriot and HIMAR (highly mobile missile systems) systems are highly cost effective. Patriot systems cost 1.1 billion dollars, compared to up to 15 million dollars for the missile.

These missiles are very scary and the long range implications are real. They can use conventional and nuclear warheads. They are being produced in North Korea, Russia and the China. Also, the US is producing them. See link below:

Explainer: Why is North Korea testing hypersonic missiles and how do they work?

Less expensive non-hypersonic cruise and ballistic missiles are being mass produced in Russia.

Swamped? The Math of Ukraine’s Missile Crisis

“An examination of the output numbers for ballistic and other missiles, and drones, show sharply rising output at low cost, while Western interceptors are produced far more slowly and at much greater expense” per the above above article.

Also in the article: “Modified Iskander variants deploy radar decoys, irregular flight paths, and terminal-phase maneuvers designed to degrade Patriot effectiveness. Ukrainian data from April and May 2025 confirms declining intercept rates during saturation strikes. Interceptor overuse combined with degraded hit probability accelerates depletion.”

Drones have been improving in speed, with the Geran-3 capable of speeds up to 250 mph. At present, swarms of up to 800 drones are launched together, and some experts suggest that they may increase to as many as 2,000 drones launched together.

Some of the drones may be decoy drones. See Google AI summary below:

In the Ukraine War, Russia uses drone decoys, such as plywood or foam imitations of Shahed drones, to overwhelm and deplete Ukraine’s air defense systems. These decoys are launched in large numbers alongside actual attack drones and missiles, creating mass barrages intended to force Ukrainian forces to waste expensive interceptor missiles on cheap, non-lethal targets. The strategy aims to degrade Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, allowing more of Russia’s actual weapons to reach their intended targets.

The decoys can help locate the bases for the interceptor missiles and target them early in the attack. See BBC article on decoys:

Link: BBC article on Drones

Link: The Phony War: Ukraine and Russia’s Decoy Drones

Russia is increasingly turning to bright young teenagers, to design advanced drones.

Link: Russia using children to design and test its military drones, investigation finds

It is all about gaining air superiority in advance of sending in ground troops. Putin will increasingly rely on North Korean troops in the ground offensive.

Now the politics and economics. This is a huge business. Developing these weapon systems, requires expertise and committed funding for research. Russia is forging alliances with Iran, North Korea and China to extend its military power. North Korea is very eager to be the supplier of advanced weapon systems and the military troops to fight Russia’s war. Ukraine is the training ground for young Koreans to become combat hardened. As many as 40% of the troops North Korea sends to Ukraine will not be returning. It is a very cruel business.

The idea that the US could use sanctions as a means of restraining Putin, and making the war too costly to pursue, is failing. It began with Biden and continued with Trump.

Trump has tried to convince India and Brazil to stop importing oil (India) and petroleum products (Brazil). When this failed, he imposed punitive tariffs, which the courts deemed beyond his authority. It likely will be decided by the Supreme Court.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War: Russia’s Deadly Drone Attacks

by Dave

Russia made drone, courtesy of Zala Aero Group.

Summary first: War does not take a holiday. The war is not going well for Ukraine. Drones can attack anywhere in Ukraine, and defending against night time attacks of massive swarms of Russian made drones (800 or more drones and decoys in a single attack) is next to impossible.

Details: Drones attacks are nothing new in the Ukraine war. Russia only deployed a few drones when they first attacked Ukraine. Russia thought in 2022 the invasion would be over quickly, with the seizure of Kiev. Now, the Kamikaze attack drones are being mass produced by Russia and others imported from Iran, in a new campaign to sow fear of survival into the Ukrainian populace.

The strikes against Ukraine reached a record of over 800 strikes in a single day in September. It is clear that after May, 2025, the massive record-breaking swarms of drones became the new strategy. The orange bars are missile attacks, and records were set March and April. Missiles have a large payload, and are the weapon of choice for destroying large targets such as military or infrastructure installations such as oil refineries.

The above image comes from the Al Jazeera website. See link: Drone and missile attacks. Above the image are the various “peace talks” which show as the US and Russia talked peace, Russia continued to intensify the war.

The graph really highlights a shift from mid-May until now. Russia is advancing on the ground and in the air. It is no longer dependent on Iran to supply “Shaheb” style drones. It has built its own plants, and it mass producing both high speed drones and decoys. See links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones

Russia continues to depend on North Korea, to send troops to Ukraine. See link:

The Second North Korean Wave in Ukraine: What Next as Pyongyang’s Troops Arrive on Russia’s Front Lines?

On July 6, 2025, there was a key meeting between Russian and North Korean leaders. A few days prior, North Korea pledge to send 25,000 to 30,000 troops to the front-lines of combat in Ukraine.

With drones and mercenary forces, Putin can escalate the war, cause more destruction to Ukraine, and avoid increasing casualties to the Russian forces. The Modern War Institute estimates nearly one million Russians have been injured, killed or captured, so far in the war.

I believe many Russians are growing weary of this war. It doesn’t seem to help.

Stay tuned,

Dave