“A lot of people think international relations is like a game of chess. But it’s not a game of chess, where people sit quietly, thinking out their strategy, taking their time between moves. It’s more like a game of billiards, with a bunch of balls clustered together.” Former Secretary of State Madeline Albright.

Might makes right. This is exactly Trump’s gameplan. We triumph over our enemies. Seize Maduro, threaten to take over the Panama canal, make threats to invade Greenland and economically cripple Cuba (which honestly we’ve done).

And in his second term, he’s definitely surrounds himslf with inexperience people who will agree with him, every step of the way. Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth. And his “outside advisers” Mohamed bin Salam (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (israel).

In all this fury and bravo, to Trump, international law is forgotten. The sovereignty of nations is lost. This unfortunately puts Trump and Putin in the same camp. Long diplomatic discussions do not make headline news.

But, he should have paid more attention to the Straits of Hormuz. Iran has controls this 24 mile critical passage for all cargo ships. Iran wants the US to acknowledge their sovereignty over the strait as part of a negotiated peace.

Iran has a new demand to end the war – and it could bring in billions

“Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous to the world, and it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it,” Rubio said after a G7 meeting in France.

All of a sudden, Marco Rubio is an internationalist! We need unity and respect for international law.

Is what Iran is suggesting illegal?

An agreement between the US and Iran, allowing them to charge a toll to pass through the strait would violate the right to free passage of all ships. However, these rights are part of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The US and Iran are not parties to this Convention. Big mistake!

Parties to UNCLOS

Wikipedia identifies countries like the US which never signed and ratified the convention and are not party to the current agreement. Ronald Reagan, a Republican, opposed the Law of the Sea Convention in 1982. President Bill Clinton, signed the 1994 agreement, yet we are not a party to the Convention.

Other counties that are not party to UNCLOS include Iran, Israel, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea, Turkey and Libya. The reasons for the US not joining, are summarized on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

It is interesting that President Bush, a Republican, was in favor of joining the Convention. Other organizations like the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying group for the oil industry, were in support of joining UNCLOS.

On March 18, Trump lashed out at NATO and European leaders for not supporting the US in the attack on Iran. The idea that the bombing of Iran was in response to an “imminent threat” to the US is a lie. We’ve seen this before. Take action first and if it doesn’t pan out like we thought, invent a justification for our act.

Of course, Ukraine worries about ‘losing the Americans’ as global attention shifts to the war in the Middle East. Russia is an imminent threat to Ukraine. And the fall of Ukraine would mean the end to self-rule of 33 million people. Russia strategy is to bleed Ukraine dry by destroying their infrastructure, with a focus on energy.

Ukraine worries about ‘losing the Americans’ as global attention shifts to the war in the Middle East

Also from the BBC, President Zelensky stated that Donald Trump was not on any side of the war:

Ukraine faces missile shortage due to Middle East war, says Zelensky

I particularly like Zelensky’s comment:

“The regimes in Russia and Iran are brothers in hatred and that is why they are brothers in weapons,” Zelensky said. “And we want regimes built on hatred, to never, never win in anything. And we want no such regime to threaten Europe or our partners.”

Russia will continue to buy drones and other equipment from Iran. And of course, Iran needs the money. After the bombing stops, Iran will continue to fund the Revolutionary Guard. Why? Because the current government wants to stay in power, and the Revolutionary Guard has all the weapons. Iran will continue to be a radical, authoritarian controlled country.

On March 17, the Director of National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned. He strongly disagreed with Trump, that Iran posed an imminent threat to the US. He reported to the Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Security. Joe Kent had many years serving in the US military, In his resignation letter, he wrote:

“… it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

I believe Donald Trump saw Joe Kent on Fox News, and he looked good, so he tapped him for this very important position. Plus, Kent supported the idea that the 2020 election was rigged. I’ve included his biography at the end of this blog.

Trump made it clear in his news conference that he will only supply weapons to Ukraine that they pay for. So, this forced Zelensky to beg for a loan from the European Council. It is a big loan (103 billion dollars) . The President of Hungary, Viktor Orban, is holding up the loan.

EU leaders slam Hungary’s Orban for blocking Ukraine aid package

Orban agreed on the loan in December, last year. Then a missile attack hiit the Druzhba pipeline, which supplied Russian oil to Hungary. Zelensky promised the pipeline would be repaired and the EC would help. It did not stop Orban from using his veto to stop the loan. Orban says the pipeline is already in service.

Viktor Orban is an extreme right wing and corrupt politician. He faces re-election in April. He is a strong supporter of Donald Trump. And Trump endorsed his re-election.

While the rest of the country is focused on Iran and increasing gas prices, I will continue to follow the events in Ukraine. It is certainly a very interconnected world we live in and I fear that policy decisions in Washington, are made without full consideration of the consequences.

More clearly, Putin and Orban pose a real threat to Europe. the thought of 33 million people, who are defenders of democracy, and proud to be Ukrainians, overun by a brutal dictator, Vladimir Putin, really worries me. Ukraine deserves better.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump endorses Prime Minister Viktor Orban for Hungary’s April election

Viktor Orban

Joe Kent