There is the reality on the ground, and a lot of hot air elsewhere. It is clear that Russia intends to destroy Ukraine’s power sources. The Institute for the Study of War, provides the most detailed update of this strategy. Their update as of December 15 states:
“Russian strikes appear to be advancing the Kremlin’s stated goal of degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s power grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air defense systems and partner support for its drone interceptor development to safeguard itself against increasingly devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure.”
From the above link, “Russian forces launched 9,298 drones and 270 missiles in October 2025, 5,444 drones and 216 missiles in November 2025, and 2,757 drones and 91 missiles in December 2025 as of December 15.”
Ukraine has counter-attacked with some recent successes. “Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against a Russian submarine for the first time in naval history on the night of December 14 to 15.”
Now, the hot air of the “Peace Talks.” From CNN reporting, “Roughly 90% of the issues between Russia and Ukraine have been solved, one of the US officials said earlier Monday, describing the issue of territorial concessions as a remaining sticking point. The US side offered ‘thought-provoking’ ideas on how to resolve the impasse, the official said, including the development of an ‘economic free zone.'”
So, this is all posturing for political reasons. I believe Russia has little interest in partial control of Ukraine. Trump dislikes long term security alliances, which is essential for Ukrainian security.
The invasion in Ukraine through Belarus began on February 4, 2022. Whenever the subject of Ukraine came up during the campaign, Trump had really just two pat answers to almost any question. One we heard a thousand times, and that was “This war would never have happened if I were president.” The second was “I will end the war on day one of my presidency.” Of course, the first statement was designed to put the blame on Biden (or later Harris) for not being tough on Putin. The second one was typical election rhetoric. It was similar to Ted Cruz, which promised to fix all problems on day one.
I’m sorry to say this, but the idea that the peace agreement is 90% done is just Trump administration’s political rhetoric. Per the CNN link below, “There is still no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin actually wants a peace settlement, European and NATO officials have said. “
One does not try to attack and destroy the energy infrastructure of a country it seeks to make peace with. Actions speak louder than words. Russia’s intent is to make Ukraine subservient part of Russia with a puppet regime in Kyiv.
The decision not to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles weakens Ukraine’s defenses. The war has no quick end. Trump wants to appease Putin, and this is a huge error.
Trump continues a theme that peace could be just around the corner if Putin and Zelensky would just sit down and cut a deal. Putin does not want a third of Ukraine, he wants it all. He wants Zelensky and the elected government gone.
“The massive overnight strike — launched hours before the conversation between Putin and President Trump — exposes Moscow’s real attitude toward peace,” Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna said in a statement Thursday.
Olga Stefanishyna was appointed to her post as the Ukrainian ambassador to the US in August 2025. Her message is clear, Putin talks peace, but he means surrender or we will destroy you. The Tomahawks would help Ukraine strike military bases within Russia, and make the war painful to them.
In the interview, Witkoff spoke positively of Vladimir Putin. He called Putin a “great guy” and “super smart”. Witkoff said “I liked him, I think he was honest” and “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy”.[72][73][74] According to Witkoff, Putin told him that he prayed for “his friend” Donald Trump following the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.
Putin sees Steven Witkoff as someone anxious to cut a deal, without an understanding of what is at stake beyond the popularity of Donald Trump. Giving away 1/3 of Ukraine will give Putin a perfect base to continue his war. Ukraine must be defended, and it will take US joining with our allies.
Russia claims Ukraine started the war and now is using the US and NATO to escalate or enlarge the war in Ukraine. There was definitely a “Donbas War” between Ukrainian separatists, wanting self rule for the region and Ukrainian military. But the Russian military was supporting the separatists with military troops. This is why Ukraine claims the invasion of Ukraine began in 2014 on their eastern border, and that the invasion on their northern border in February 2022 was an escalation of a war. The evidence from intelligence sources clearly backs up Ukraine’s perspective. The war is not a 3 year conflict, but an 11 year conflict.
The war started in 2014, with the Russians overtly supporting the separtists in eastern Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea in the south. The invasion in 2022 by Russia, made clear that their objective was control of the entire country, by military force. In February 2022, the Russians sent an armored column of tanks from Belarus to Kyiv, to seize the capitol. They failed.
Now, we are in a different phase of the war. There is a saying that “The best defense is a good offense” originated with George Washington in 1799. It is being used by the Ukraine’s military against the Russian attacks on their cities.
Russia has escalated the war, with a massive attack on Ukraine energy infrastructure. As noted in the AP press release, it is Russia’s strategy to increase the pain of war, by cutting off energy sources during the winter.
“Each year, Russia has tried to cripple the Ukrainian power grid before the bitter winter season, apparently hoping to erode public morale. Winter temperatures run from late October through March, with January and February the coldest months.”
Ukraine has retaliated with attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Offense is much cheaper than defense. Drones costing $80,000 are shot down by missiles costing over a million dollars. Ukraine has no option but to defend its country and attack Russia. The Ukrainian offense must be well targeted to military and industrial facilities, because it depends on EU and US support. Russia’s allies (China, North Korea and Iran) don’t have the same humanitarian concerns. They will benefit by manufacturing and selling drones and missiles to Russia.
What Ukraine wants is Tomahawk missiles, which will extend the range of Ukraine’s attacks into Russia, and force Russia to use its military resources to defend itself. Talks between Ukraine and US are ongoing as discussed in the AP article. So this is an escalation of the war, but I see no way to stop it.
I support Trump’s initiative to get tough with all countries buying oil from Russia. But extreme tariffs on India and China, result in retaliatory tariffs, hurting the US economy. And we need India’s support.
I feel for the residents of Ukraine and Russia who will suffer the consequences of this war, and I wish this war to end. But, Ukraine must remain a free Ukraine, not threatened by Russia. For this reason, US military and humanitarian aid is vital. Ultimately, it must be part of the NATO alliance, because this is the only way to deter Putin’s expansionary policies.
Trump believes sending in military troops into cities is necessary to combat rising crime and what he calls “the enemy from within.” We have our problems. And there are times, where our military troops or reservists need to be called into action. But it must be done with the cooperation with the state government and local police.
The enemies from within are ignorance, misinformation and apathy. Social media, namely Facebook and Youtube, are not news outlets. Anybody can post there (including myself) and unfortunately, people read and share many falsehoods.
I will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine, which includes both military actions and economic sanctions. Global politics are an important part of this, as our most recent post, cited Putin’s attempt to show solidarity among world leaders of his invasion of Ukraine.
The Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) Conference and the military parade in Beijing immediately following the conference was to promote solidarity among our adversaries. It took place for just two days, August 31 and September 1. Donald Trump with his fixation on the trade imbalance, made it completely acceptable for India’s Prime Minister Modi to stand along side Putin and Xi Jinping.
The military parade further extended the visit of world leaders to September 3. It was to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. It was much more than this, the conference was designed to push forward economic cooperations with world leaders, and demonstrate China’s military power as well.
Trump’s foreign policy hinges on a false misconception – if you push hard enough, there will come compliance. What comes from the US unilaterally pushing, is push back, and between Putin and Xi Jinping, this was painfully obvious. There are 10 members to this organization which includes Iran, which is critical to designing and manufacturing drones with increased capacity to avoid being shot down.
North Korean President Kim Jong Un arrived by train to Beijing on September 2 so he could observe the military parade, and for meetings with Xi and Putin. See ABC news link:
Trump appeared to make a major policy change, in his rambling speech to the UN:
“President Donald Trump said Tuesday afternoon that he thinks Ukraine, with help from the European Union, could win back its territory from Russia and return the country to its original borders. Trump had previously suggested numerous times that giving up some land would be a key component of resolving Ukraine’s war with Russia.”
So, did he mean original 2022 borders, after Crimea was taken by Russia? Or the 2014 borders with Crimea part of Ukraine. He hasn’t clarified this.
Now, is Trump backing up his words with actions? Or backing down? It is difficult to say.
For Ukraine to wage a completely defensive, it would mean expending much more capital than Russia. To spend one million dollars to shoot down a drone costing $80,000 dollars is not cost efficient. And, the drone that is shot down, may be a decoy, costing practically nothing. Offense is many fold cheaper than defense. So, Ukraine wants attack cruise missiles from the US, namely the Tomahawk missiles, so it can attack targets within Russia.
Russia has numerous cruise missiles, which vary in terms of range, speed, payload and other capabilities. The BrahMos cruise missile has many variations and is jointly produced by Russia and India.
The US manufactured Tomahawk missiles also has many variants. The missile under consideration for Ukraine would have a range of 1,550 miles, and cost approximately 1.3 million dollars. Russia has stated that this would represent a significant escalation of the war.
Trump has stated that before providing the Tomahawks to Ukraine, he wants to know exactly how they are to be used. Of course, Ukraine will pledge to use the missiles for industrial and military targets, but once Ukraine has the missiles, they will select the targets.
The news story cited below is from October 2. Sources suggest the US will not provide the Tomahawks because our inventory is low. Our inventory of missiles is classified information, but some estimate US to have about 4,000 Tomahawk missiles.
Ukraine continues an offensive war against Russia using drones. Ukraine claims drone strikes against ammo plant, oil terminal and weapons depot using drones. Russia continues attacks with large swarms of drones, attacking Ukraine infrastructure including gas pipelines, residential homes and other buildings.
War is both ugly and sad. But, to return Ukraine to Russian control, after 34 years of independence, with so many Ukrainians having given their lives defending their sovereignty and democracy is even sadder. So, if the US can not or does not choose to arm Ukraine with cruise missiles, I am hoping the European countries will.
China’s display of unity, with the world’s bad actors, namely Russia, North Korea and Iran has to be countered with US-European unity. Regaining India as an ally will require great diplomatic skill, and compromise. Forming alliances and long-term commitment is not what Trump does easily. But this is exactly the counter punch to the spectacle in China in September.
Russia is paying citizens of North Korea and Cuba to fight, and die on the battlefields of Ukraine. Why? Because the desperate economic conditions in these countries means the $2000 per month salary looks good. As explained in the link, many of them are killed within five months, and there are grieving families in Russia when they are gone. Apparently, Russia only says they are missing, not dead.
Andriy Yusov is a Ukrainian spokeperson for the Ukrainian intelligence. He shared information with US Representatives at a briefing on the use of mercenaries in Ukraine.
“Taking into account the totalitarian nature of Cuban regimes, such recruitment could not have taken part without the blessing of the Cuban regime,” Yusov said. He also added many recruits are victims of fraud, with some being held even after their contracts expire.
But, estimates vary on how many Cubans and North Koreans are currently fighting in Ukraine. From the link above, Ukrainian intelligences estimates more than 1,000 Cubans mercenaries have signed contracts to fight in Ukraine. North Korea initially supplied 10,000 troops in fall of 2024, of which it is believed that 4,000 have died in combat. The meeting between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kim Jong-un in North Korea on July 6, 2025 was pivotal, as a few day later North Korea pledged to triple the number of troops, to 25,000 to 30,000. It is unknown how many North Koreans Kim Jong-un will actually send to Ukraine. See link below:
I will end on a positive note, and that is the Moldova elections went in favor of the pro-EU party despite Russia’s attempt to sway the population. See link:
This is not a cold war, but a hot one. Had pro-Russian party won the elections, Russia would have a strong base, SW of Ukraine, to continue its invasion of Ukraine.
We will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine. I know there are many news stories out there. Last week Charlie Kirk, today it is the shooting at the Dallas ICE facility plus the indictment of James Comey.
Absolutely, the shootings are tragic events, and nothing is ever gained. Human life is precious. I feel for the survivors, the widows and children. I have faith that the police will find the shooter who killed an immigrant and wounded others at the Dallas facility.
Tragic events are happening in Gaza now, and it is extremely sad. A war that targets the general population is called genocide and this is an international crime. I don’t see how this advances peace.
James Comey will have his day in court. The Justice Department felt there was sufficient evidence to charge James Comey. The Grand Jury agreed with indicting him on two counts. It will take months to resolve. It is a felony crime to give false testimony to Congress. He is innocent of all charges until proved guilty in a court of law. Everyone, including Donald Trump wants to rush to judgement and have him tried in the media.
So, I will be posting more on the Ukraine war, and avoid the more popular “news de jour” with contrasting points of views from Fox, MSNBC, CNN and of course, the usual noise (to put it mildly) from social media.
Russia wants to intensify their attack, after nearly a million Russians have been killed, captured or injured. They want to scale up, but it is increasingly clear this is a war on a budget. But the goal is the same, total control of Ukraine.
First the Math. Offense is much cheaper than defense. Shooting down a drone that costs $80,000 with a missile that costs 1 to 2 million dollars, is not economical. In fact, the defenders of a country will soon go broke this way. It is why Ukraine is increasingly going on the offense – and Russia is well aware of this.
In the prior posting, I discussed the use of massive swarms of missiles and drones. Missiles are very expensive compared to drones, so they are a small but lethal part of the attack. Russia is deploying hypersonic ballistic missiles, “normal” ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles in their attack in Ukraine.
Cruise missiles stay low to the ground to avoid detection. They use a combination of different navigation systems, including terrain contour matching (using onboard imaging with stored maps) to make course corrections. They are accurate to 5 to 7 meters of their target.
Hypersonic ballistic missiles are the most expensive, costing between 10 to 15 million dollars. The next generation of hypersonic missiles are really scary things, combining high speed and maneuverability to avoid being shot down. So, the super expensive Patriot missile systems, which Ukraine has only 6 to 8 launchers and been begging for more, may be no match if the aerial assault uses hypersonic missiles.
Ballistic missiles that can destroy Patriot and HIMAR (highly mobile missile systems) systems are highly cost effective. Patriot systems cost 1.1 billion dollars, compared to up to 15 million dollars for the missile.
These missiles are very scary and the long range implications are real. They can use conventional and nuclear warheads. They are being produced in North Korea, Russia and the China. Also, the US is producing them. See link below:
“An examination of the output numbers for ballistic and other missiles, and drones, show sharply rising output at low cost, while Western interceptors are produced far more slowly and at much greater expense” per the above above article.
Also in the article: “Modified Iskander variants deploy radar decoys, irregular flight paths, and terminal-phase maneuvers designed to degrade Patriot effectiveness. Ukrainian data from April and May 2025 confirms declining intercept rates during saturation strikes. Interceptor overuse combined with degraded hit probability accelerates depletion.”
Drones have been improving in speed, with the Geran-3 capable of speeds up to 250 mph. At present, swarms of up to 800 drones are launched together, and some experts suggest that they may increase to as many as 2,000 drones launched together.
Some of the drones may be decoy drones. See Google AI summary below:
In the Ukraine War, Russia uses drone decoys, such as plywood or foam imitations of Shahed drones, to overwhelm and deplete Ukraine’s air defense systems. These decoys are launched in large numbers alongside actual attack drones and missiles, creating mass barrages intended to force Ukrainian forces to waste expensive interceptor missiles on cheap, non-lethal targets. The strategy aims to degrade Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, allowing more of Russia’s actual weapons to reach their intended targets.
The decoys can help locate the bases for the interceptor missiles and target them early in the attack. See BBC article on decoys:
It is all about gaining air superiority in advance of sending in ground troops. Putin will increasingly rely on North Korean troops in the ground offensive.
Now the politics and economics. This is a huge business. Developing these weapon systems, requires expertise and committed funding for research. Russia is forging alliances with Iran, North Korea and China to extend its military power. North Korea is very eager to be the supplier of advanced weapon systems and the military troops to fight Russia’s war. Ukraine is the training ground for young Koreans to become combat hardened. As many as 40% of the troops North Korea sends to Ukraine will not be returning. It is a very cruel business.
The idea that the US could use sanctions as a means of restraining Putin, and making the war too costly to pursue, is failing. It began with Biden and continued with Trump.
Trump has tried to convince India and Brazil to stop importing oil (India) and petroleum products (Brazil). When this failed, he imposed punitive tariffs, which the courts deemed beyond his authority. It likely will be decided by the Supreme Court.
Summary first: War does not take a holiday. The war is not going well for Ukraine. Drones can attack anywhere in Ukraine, and defending against night time attacks of massive swarms of Russian made drones (800 or more drones and decoys in a single attack) is next to impossible.
Details: Drones attacks are nothing new in the Ukraine war. Russia only deployed a few drones when they first attacked Ukraine. Russia thought in 2022 the invasion would be over quickly, with the seizure of Kiev. Now, the Kamikaze attack drones are being mass produced by Russia and others imported from Iran, in a new campaign to sow fear of survival into the Ukrainian populace.
The strikes against Ukraine reached a record of over 800 strikes in a single day in September. It is clear that after May, 2025, the massive record-breaking swarms of drones became the new strategy. The orange bars are missile attacks, and records were set March and April. Missiles have a large payload, and are the weapon of choice for destroying large targets such as military or infrastructure installations such as oil refineries.
The above image comes from the Al Jazeera website. See link: Drone and missile attacks. Above the image are the various “peace talks” which show as the US and Russia talked peace, Russia continued to intensify the war.
The graph really highlights a shift from mid-May until now. Russia is advancing on the ground and in the air. It is no longer dependent on Iran to supply “Shaheb” style drones. It has built its own plants, and it mass producing both high speed drones and decoys. See links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones
Russia continues to depend on North Korea, to send troops to Ukraine. See link:
On July 6, 2025, there was a key meeting between Russian and North Korean leaders. A few days prior, North Korea pledge to send 25,000 to 30,000 troops to the front-lines of combat in Ukraine.
With drones and mercenary forces, Putin can escalate the war, cause more destruction to Ukraine, and avoid increasing casualties to the Russian forces. The Modern War Institute estimates nearly one million Russians have been injured, killed or captured, so far in the war.
I believe many Russians are growing weary of this war. It doesn’t seem to help.
Donald Trump did not like the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on unemployment, so he fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. Dr. Erika McEntarfer. Prominent conservative economists, including Dr. Michael Strain, from the American Enterprise Institute, pushed back. “President Trump is completely wrong in asserting there’s been any sort of anti-Trump bias in the labor market data. I think that assertion is wholly unsupported.”
If the data were “rigged” as Donald Trump claims, Dr. Michael Strain would know. He is currently the Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. The experts in labor statistics concur that there was no scandal. The Bureau has 2100 employees, and I am certain conservative news outlets are eager to find one employee who can back up Donald Trump’s claims of rigged statistics.
Trump claimed without evidence that the commissioner “faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory.” (I believe this is a social media post).
Nobody is faking numbers,” former Labor Department chief of staff Daniel Koh wrote on X. “Revisions happen all the time.” Trump has previously praised the BLS reports, when they were favorable to his administration in April, May and June. (See NBC News link at the end of this post).
In fact, the only the Secretary of Labor, Lori Chavez-Deremer thought it was a good idea to shoot the messenger of bad news. She didn’t say the numbers were rigged, as Trump did, because that is a criminal accusation.
Labor statistics require a team of highly trained professionals. The Bureau is very open on its data collection procedures and deadlines. In industry, when financial results fall far below expectations, the most common trick is to slide the reporting date. BLS can’t do this, their deadlines for the various reports are set in January of each year. The data collection transparency and fixed deadlines are excellent measures to keep the reporting honest.
Dr. Erika McEntarfer was confirmed by the Senate in January 2023 by a vote of 86 to 8. Conservative media (MAGA) outlets will point out she was nominated by Biden. That’s about the worse they can say about Dr. McEntarfer. She served in government for 20 years under both Republican and Democratic administrations. JD Vance voted in favor of her as Commissioner. He was a Senator at the time of the vote.
The BLS had to cut back on the number of surveys they could conduct, because of Trump’s layoffs and employees who accepted severance packages. As a result, BLS is less able to do their job.
Trump is not draining the swamp, he’s adding to it. He is getting rid of honest directors and commissioners and adding MAGA loyalists, who will tow the party line that tariffs are great and our economy is wonderful.
“The politicization of economic data and potential interference with it by political appointees is something that’s typically seen in nondemocratic countries like Russia, Venezuela or China.” (NBC News, see link at the end of this post). Not the US.
Quotes from NBC news: “In May, the White House said that April’s jobs report “proved” that Trump was “revitalizing” the economy. In June, Trump posted, “GREAT JOBS NUMBERS” on Truth Social.
Secretary Lori Chavez-Deremer was approved 67-32 on March 28, 2025. Seems her only government experience is 2 years in the House of Representatives. Previous to this, she was the mayor of Happy Valley, Oregon.
Tariffs on imports result in reciprocal tariffs. So, if Friday, August 1, the 50% tariffs go into effect, it is a lose-lose situation.
The trial will go forward. The Supreme Court in Brazil can act similarly to a trial court in the US, setting rules on what the accused can do outside of the courtroom. Bolsonaro protested his arrest on social media, in violation of a court order. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the trial, could have arrested Bolsonaro, but declined stating it was an isolated violation. He stated that Bolsonaro may participate in interviews with the news media.
In the trial, prosecutors believe there is sufficient evidence to support a radical plan to bring Bolsonaro back into power, through a declaration of a national emergency as a result of the attack on the Capital. Military leaders who supported Bolsonaro would then step in, forcing Lula out of office.
The charges against Bolsonaro are for actions he took while out of office, so he can not claim presidential immunity as Trump did.
This is a very dynamic situation. The easiest way to cool things off is for Trump to push back the deadline. Lula can not drop the charges, but perhaps there are means to make the judicial process and evidence presented as transparent as possible.
But, Trump can dial up the heat, because Brazil buys petroleum products from Russia. As part of new sanctions against Russia, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against countries that buy Russian oil, and Brazil certainly could be included in this group, which includes China and India.
I have not read anything that indicates Trump’s likely next move, although my thinking is that he will try to cool off the situation. He may not like it, but he is the TACO president (Trump always chickens out).
Trump feels he can use tariffs to make countries do what he says. Generally, Brazil is considered a good ally of the US, pretty much like Canada. Unlike Canada and Mexico, Brazil has a trade surplus with the US. so there is no basis for tariffs based on unequal trade. It is really amazing how Trump easily turns our allies into our enemies. Germany, France, Mexico, Canada and now Brazil. I could add the entire EU, as he’s threaten them with tariffs.
Trump has threatened 50% on all Brazilian exports due to the arrest of the former president, Jair Bolsonaro on charges that he was leading an armed criminal organization in an attack of the capital on January 8, 2023. Brazil has responded that they will immediately reciprocate with equal tariffs on US goods.
Trump’s idea is the threat of massive tariffs can result in world leaders come crawling to Trump and begging for mercy. It is a fantasy. But, it seems to play well to his base.
Background
Jair Bolsonaro was President of Brazil from January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2023. He ran for re-election in November 2022, and lost to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a very close election. It was a clash between right wing factions (Bolsonaro) and left wing (Lula). January 1, 2023 was President elect Lula’s inauguration and it was a calm day, with a message of rebuilding and unity. See link below:
But a storm was brewing. Busloads of Bolsonaro supporters began arriving in Brasilia following inauguration day. The attacks (or insurrection or attempted coup by radical supporters) took place in government buildings on January 8. See link below:
The attacks were investigated and many arrests were made. Prosecutors in March 2025 felt they had enough evidence to charge Jair Bolsonaro with being part of the planning of the attack. It was reported by ABC News as follows:
“The prosecution accuses Bolsonaro of leading an armed criminal organization, attempting to stage a coup and attempting the violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, aggravated damage, and deterioration of listed heritage sites.
A federal police investigation placed Bolsonaro at the top of a criminal organization that had been active since at least 2021. Police say that after Bolsonaro’s loss to Lula, the organization conspired to overturn the election result.
Part of that plot included a plan to kill Lula and a Supreme Court justice, the prosecution alleges. It also says that the Jan. 8 riot when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked top government buildings a week after Lula took office was an attempt to force military intervention and oust the new president.”
Trump announced the proposed 50% tariffs on Brazil on July 9 despite a U.S. trade surplus with the country – lining it up for one of the world’s very highest such levies, close to China’s 55% rate. Brazil’s President Lula responded that he did not have the authority to drop charges against Bolsonaro.
President Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes responses
Brazil’s President Lula responded that he did not have the authority to drop charges against Bolsonaro. Unlike the US, Brazil doesn’t have a Special Prosecutor within the Executive branch which can investigate crimes of government officials. But Special Prosecutors can be dismissed very easily, and the charges dropped.
The Brazilian Supreme Court Justice does not take orders from President Lula and has authority to investigate, charge and adjudicate certain violations of federal law. It is designed to keep rich and powerful people honest.
On July 11, 2025, the Supreme Court of Brazil forced Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor and conducted a search of his home. Justice Alexandre de Moraes considers Bolsonaro a flight risk. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, a Brazilian Congressman, has been living in Texas since February and lobbying the White House to intervene.
Under court orders, Bolsonaro must remain in his home during nights and weekends, may not have any contact with foreign officials. He is barred from social media.
Hours later, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, joined the fray by posting on X, that he was revoking visas of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes as well as his immediate family members and allies. A total of 8 Supreme Court Justices had their visas revoked according to O Globo.
If Trump thought that President Lula would cave in, he was mistaken. Trump stated the 50% tariffs would begin on August 1. President Lula response is simple, as shown below, O Brasil e dos brasileiros, or “Brazil belongs to its people.” Two can play the MAGA game! But Lula is standing his ground.
“Lula, who had been facing growing public disillusionment and an uphill battle to win re-election next year, has enjoyed a bounce in the polls since Trump launched his trade war, the brunt of which will be borne by coffee producers and cattle ranchers in Bolsonaro-voting regions, such as São Paulo.”
The trial of Bolsonaro is strictly an internal affair, and the US has no right to interfere. Bloomberg reports that the White House is looking for some legal justification.
There are many other exports from Brazil which will be impacted. Brazil exported 42.3 billion dollars of goods and services to the US last year.
A panel of judges will hear the case against Bolsonaro. They will decide if Bolsonaro is guilty of the charges, and will likely give their verdict before the end of the year.
Fed Reserves Chief Jay Powell must have gone crazy, spending 2.5 billion dollars to renovate the Federal Reserves building! Let’s get rid of him. Go Bill Pulte, get Powell!
So, there are two stories. First is why the renovations are so expensive. Second one is who is Bill Pulte and why does he want to go after Jay Powell.
“Donald Trump’s allies are attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the expensive project. That’s the price he’s paying for building in a swamp.” The Federal Reserves building was built in 1937 and you can’t exactly move it or build it somewhere else.
Foundation work for the Fed expansion was so difficult that contractors responsible for the job received a 2025 award for “excellence in the face of adversity” from the Washington Building Congress, a building trades association.
Any evidence of mismanagement or fraud, as White House officials have suggested, could prove a useful pretext for removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose resistance to cutting interest rates this year has angered the president.
But the price tag has less to do with “ostentatious” features than the challenges of building — particularly underground — in what was once a swamp near the Tidal Basin along the Potomac River.
Bill Pulte is Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. His grandfather, William Pulte, the founder of Pulte Homes, past away in 2018. His appointment was approved by the Senate along party lines. He immediately began gutting the agency, primarily the employees enforcing the Fair Housing Act, which prohibits discrimination in the sale and rental of property. Wikipedia states, “Pulte’s job cuts targeted a department that oversaw fair housing rules for the Federal Home Loan Bank system.”
Prior to the Fair Housing Act, real estate agents routinely kept blacks out of buying homes in white neighborhoods.
I don’t know if Bill Pulte knows anything about the Federal Reserves renovation in the short time he has been Director of FHFA. Obviously, he knows Trump wants to get rid of Powell, and is willing to make accusations of misconduct to help Trump fire Powell for cause. The Washington Post has reported that Pulte wrote a draft letter, claiming mismanagement of the renovations, just in case Trump decides to fire Powell for cause. It’s really just pre-text as Trump wants to be end the independence of the Federal Reserve Board and future interest decisions.
Pulte will be very busy with Trump’s attempt to privatize the Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac loan agencies. It is a highly contentious and political issue. I felt USA Today gave a balanced review of privatization of these agencies.
According to USA Today, “Privatization may also come with tighter lending standards, making it more difficult for those with modest incomes and limited credit histories to secure loans.”
Also per Wikipedia:
In April, Pulte referred Letitia James, the attorney general of New York, to attorney general Pam Bondi and deputy attorney general Todd Blanche for criminal prosecution, alleging that James “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire government backed assistance and loans and more favorable loan terms.” The following month, The Washington Post reported that the Department of Justice was investigating James.
Todd Blanche represented Trump in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial. He was found guilty of 34 felony counts. Trump was let off easy by the judge as he did not have to pay a fine, be on probation or jail time. The latter would have been difficult since sentencing occurred after he was re-elected. The case is still under appeal.
If Trump fires Jerome Powell on a pile of false accusations, the Democrats will be making the case that the Fed independence is dead.
Trump has given Russia 50 days to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or else he will go ahead with severe sanctions to make sure Russia can not profit from sale of their oil. To do so, he must sanction countries that are buying Russian oil. Russia profits from selling fossil fuels, namely oil, natural gas, coal, LNG (liquified natural gas), and petroleum products. In total, the sale of these fuels result in sales of 687 million dollars per day, according to the CREA. On their website, sales are reported in Euros, and I have converted them to dollars.
The specific large buyers of oil and gas are China, India and Turkiye. So, why not just tell these countries to stop buying fossil fuels from Russia until Putin stops the war?
I’ll start with China, which many economists already knew that tariffs would likely hurt the US economy more than China’s. President Xi Jingping did not open up discussions with the US immediately as Trump threatened China. Instead, he flew to Vietnam and other trading partners in a move to show Trump, Chinese products don’t have to be sold in the US. See link below:
Next up is India which is close to a trade deal. Not something Trump will want to upset. India greatly increased its imports of oil from Russia after 2022, because it could buy the oil at discounted prices. India recognized Ukraine in 1991, yet does not support international sanctions against Russia.
Finally Turkiye (note the correct spelling) which is part of NATO, and has provided military equipment to Ukraine. US needs. But, they will continue to buy Russian oil. There has been many issues in the past including Turkiye’s purchase of military defense weapons, similar to Patriot missiles, from Russia. I think Trump will see Turkiye as an ally in the Ukraine war, and will not dare sanction them for their purchase of Russian oil.
It’s interesting, because Trump has given Russia 50 days to find peace in Ukraine, or else he will sanction the buyers of fossil fuels. China and India are the largest buyers with each country importing about 4.1 billion dollars of oil per month. These are secondary sanctions to be added to the tariffs.
So, who else is sanctionable? Hungary and Slovenia import Russian oil, each around 200 million per month. Relative to China, India and Turkiye, these are not sizeable purchases. If Trump goes beyond oil, there are other fossil fuels, like LNG, and petroleum products. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the EU and Brazil could join the list of sanctionable countries.
Sanctioning Brazil will not happen. Remember Trump has already threatened Brazil with a 50% tariff on all goods, because they are putting ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on trial. President Lula has responded, stating that Brazil would retaliate with 50% tariffs. So, if tariffs go to 150% because of their purchase of petroleum products, Brazil would retaliate with 150% tariffs. And both countries would be losers, but the US would be the bigger loser, because we have a trade surplus with Brazil.
Using sanctions, tariffs or embargos as a means of forcing countries to change policy can hurt the US more than the targeted country.
At the very end of the CREA analysis, they note three ways to Ukrainian allies can “tighten the screws” on Russia’s oil exports. I think it is a very thoughtful analysis, as none of these measures have any means of immediate retaliation, and they would be directed at Russia rather than China, India and Turkiye.
Lower the Price Cap established by the EU sanctions to $30/bbl.
Restrict the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers & plug the refining loophole. This one gets complicated so it’s best to defer to the CREA analysis.
Stronger enforcement and monitoring
The tanker shipments of crude can be monitored. Trump likes actions he can take unilaterally, but they generally are not successful. Biden thought he could cripple Putin with severe sanctions, at the onset of the war in Feb 2022. It didn’t work.
Trump and Putin talked, and then hours later, Russia launched its largest attack on Kyiv, with a swarm estimated at 730 drones and missiles. Trump realized that his efforts to broker a cease fire were absolutely gone.
Trump has said he will not be blocking the military aid approved by the Biden administration in a US stockpile drawdown.
Trump proposed NATO buy the US military equipment for Ukraine. NATO seems to support the proposal. He is also proposing very high tariffs on country’s buying Russian oil. It seems to be all in the right direction.
Putin appears to be undeterred. Recent military actions taken by both sides are listed in the Al-Jazeera post. Russia appears to be occupying more territory.
I am most worried about China, Iran and North Korea’s involvement in the war. North Korea is sending fresh troops to Ukraine, to join Putin’s mercenary force while the other countries produce military equipment. It is turning, more and more, into a proxy war.
But, finally the US looks like it’s fighting on the right side.
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