2024 elections

The Art of Election Forecasting

by Dave

This is a subject which I know quite a bit about, as I have a website called sim538.com which summarized many of the forecasts made during the 2020 presidential election. I am working on a new website, which will be similar for the 2024 presidential election. My new site will track the election forecasters and note significant changes.

Below, I have posted a recent consensus map from the website 270towin.com .

The map identifies the toss-up or swing states and their electoral votes (EV’s) are Pennsylvania(19), Georgia(16), Arizona(11), Nevada(6) and Wisconsin(10), for a total of 62 electoral votes. I call the swing states, PAWN-G as it is easy to remember. The candidate that wins 270 electoral votes or more, becomes president.

I also coined the term, super swing states. To qualify, nearly every forecast map must show this as a toss-up state. Right now, Georgia and Arizona are the only two super swing states.

Assuming the consensus map is right, it is totally amazing that there are so few swing states this early in the presidential election. Also note that each of the five swing states were won by Biden in 2020, by a very narrow margin. The map shows Democrats have a slight lead with 241 electoral votes over Republicans with 235 electoral votes.

For Democrats to win, they need 29 more EV’s. They could do this by winning two to three of the five swing states. The most obvious combination is PA(19) and WI(10). But if Democrats lose PA, then they can still win, if they win in GA, WI and AZ, for a very narrow win with 278 votes.

For Republicans to win, they need 35 EV’s. They could do this by winning PA, GA and AZ. But if they lose PA, there are less winning combinations. GA, WI and AZ is a possible combination for a very narrow win of 275 votes.

So, of the 5 swing states, winning PA and GA is really important.

Some of the old swing states are off the list. Florida and North Carolina are likely to go Republican, while Michigan and New Hampshire are likely to go Democrat. But these states can not be ignored and may be the source of additional surprises in 2024.

A lot depends on turnout – can candidates get their base sufficiently fired up to actually show up at the polls or mail in their ballots. Forecasters and party strategists know this very well. There’s a lot more to come.

My new website will start in January 2024, to track election forecasts in a purely non-partisan manner.

Stay tuned,

Dave .

Robert Kennedy, Jr.

by Dave

Robert Kennedy, Jr. has never run for any office. I hope people do not vote for him. I’ve seen him several times on Fox News. I guess Fox believes he will pull votes away from Joe Biden.

He just seems always to go off the deep end on issues and would make a terrible president. He is an environmental activist, which I like. I don’t think he would be effective at reducing global carbon emissions, because this requires building coalitions with other countries. I don’t see him quietly negotiating agreements with other countries, as he is too much of a rogue adversary.

On so many issues, he gets off the tracks in big conspiracy themes. He is reckless. You can’t have a president who is constantly attacking government. In some ways, it is a bit like Trump, who would dismember the FBI and Justice Department, if he could. Kennedy would take action against the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, in his extreme viewpoint that they are colluding with “Big Pharma” and “Big Oil.” At the center of his conspiracy rants, is the big corporations have destroyed our institutions. From Wikipedia:

Kennedy has also stated that the American government is dominated by corporate power; he said the Environmental Protection Agency was run by the “oil industry, the coal industry and the pesticide industry”, and described the Food and Drug Administration as overly dominated by “Big Pharma”.[148]

I want a president who can identify what is wrong with our institutions, and improve them. Trump is hell bent on getting revenge on the Justice Department, while Kennedy would go after the EPA and FDA.

Global problems, like Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, North Korea’s aim to get nuclear weapons and climate change, require strong cooperation with our partners around the world. Kennedy is an isolationist in this regard.

An outspoken opponent of the military industry and foreign intervention, Kennedy was highly critical of the Iraq War as well as American support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion of the country.

Kennedy is an equal opportunity attacker of Republican and Democrats, President and Congress. Don’t waste your vote on him. We need realistic problem solvers. Of all the potential candidates, Joe Biden, is the only one who brings together a real team to pragmatically work with world leaders to solve global problems.

Kennedy is an extreme isolationist. He would have never supported Ukraine to defend themselves against Russia. Russia can not be allowed to redraw its boundaries one country at a time.

As I complete this post, a historical meeting between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will take place in San Francisco. Biden will press Xi Jinping to join the US and world leaders in persuading the rogue countries like North Korea from sending weapons to Russia, to use in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The summit will be an opportunity for Biden to urge China to break their close alliance with Iran, because of their funding of Islamic terrorist organizations.

Neither Kennedy nor Trump (with 91 criminal charges against him) should be the US next president. They are big on words, but short on actual accomplishments.

Stay tuned,

Dave

New York State Case – Day 1

by Dave

This is thoroughly covered by the news media. I just wanted to clarify a few points:

(1) Why is this a non-jury trial?

Engoron said that neither side sought a jury and that state law doesn’t allow for juries when suits seek not only money but a court order setting out something a defendant must do or not do.

Trump has complained that he is being railroaded by a biased judge. It’s unclear whether a jury trial would have been available under New York Executive Law 63(12), the statute under which the case was brought, and may legal experts believe it likely would not have been. Trump’s spokesperson emphasized this point in a statement.

“The Attorney General filed this case under a consumer protection statute that denies the right to a jury,” the spokesperson [for Trump] told The Messenger. “It is unfortunate that a jury won’t be able to hear how absurd the merits of this case are and conclude no wrongdoing ever happened.”

But the judge’s remark highlights that neither side sought to litigate the issue.

(2) Why can’t we see it on television?

Both this trial and the hush money criminal trial will not be televised. Generally, court cases can not be televised without special permission. The same with the federal January 6 case and the classified documents case. Now, the Georgia case, with 18 defendants, will be televised.

(3) Why is Trump allowed to attack prosecutors and the judge?

I think no gag order has been requested, as there is no jury which could be compromised if they heard these hostile statements.

(4) When is AG Letitia James planning to call important witnesses?

The list of potential witnesses, both for the prosecution and rebuttal have been provided to the courts. There are 28 witnesses. This list has #4 Allen Weiselberg, #6 Michael Cohen and #14 Ivanka Trump. The prosecution will end Eric, Donald Jr. and Donald Trump, followed by an expert witness on Commercial Banking and Disgorgement Amounts. There are 25 other potential rebuttal witnesses. To have the defense present their case, prosecution could wrap up in mid November – that’s just my guess.

Eric, Donald Jr. and Donald Trump are also on the defense potential list of witnesses. There is a very good chance they will not take the stand.

(5) Is there any credible evidence that this judge is biased towards Trump?

Zero. His handling of the case so far, has been praised by experts in civil lawsuits. Of course Donald Trump has a different opinion, “I have a Deranged, Trump Hating Judge, who RAILROADED this FAKE CASE through a NYS Court at a speed never before seen,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

That’s classic Trump, always on the offense.

(6) Is there any evidence that the Attorney General is targeting Trump?

Of course, it is her job to investigate wrong doing especially when Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, testified in Congress and wrote a book about all the illegal activities of Donald Trump. Successfully prosecuting Allen Weiselberg was a major step in charging Donald Trump, his two sons and the Trump business in this case with fraud.

(7) Is Trump and his organization being judged more harshly than similar cases?

Yes, when there is strong evidence of persistent fraud, the New York State law is more harsh. I happen to agree with harsh laws for repeat violators. There is a lower bar to prove fraud.

Hopefully, they can conclude the trial before Christmas.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The Guard Rails have come off

by Dave

How can so few right wing radical Republicans take extreme measures to disrupt government? They make a lot of baseless accusations at Committee meetings, like the recent attacks on Attorney General Merrick Garland. They lectured the Attorney General, and then interrupted him as he attempted to reply. The was a stunt made for television. They want to interfere in the legitimate role of the Department of Justice to investigate criminal activity.

Jim Jordan led the charge for Republicans. His central theme was that the Justice Department has systematically targeted Republicans, while they go easy on Democrats. Jordan and others carried this message from the hearing room to cable news or social media.

But, nothing was panning out like it should. It was totally contradicted when Democrat Senator Bob Menendez and his wife were indicted for bribery and conspiracy to commit fraud. The evidence was astounding. A search of his home found approximately half a million dollars stashed in various locations. I know he is innocent until proven guilty, but I personally this time, they have a great case against Bob and his wife Nadine. Part of the evidence comes from a wiretap of Nadine’s phone. Yes, a court authorized wiretap which will help secure a conviction. So, AG Merrick Garland proved exactly what he was testifying to- that they follow the law and the facts in each case.

I particularly like this opinion as posted on CNN:

Link CNN Opinion, Government isn’t broken, the Republican Party is.

It is much easier to block a road than to construct it. Another words, it is easier to block progress to solving a problem, than actually work to solve it. The fix must come from the electorate. Five members of Congress blocked action of Defense appropriations (Andy Biggs, Dan Bishop, Eli Crane, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Rosendale) . The one area where Republicans could always be counted on was support of the military. Now, as I began, the guard rails are off.

Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Laura Boebert will never put forward any legislation that has any chance of being passed. They enjoy frustrating progress. In fact, the 20 plus extreme radical Republicans have a certain unity, not in Congress but in the Freedom Caucus, which doesn’t really care about funding government, raising the debt ceiling or reducing carbon emissions. The New York Times provided this list of extreme Republicans in January 2023 as follows:

Link New York Times How Far Right Are the 20 Republicans Who Voted Against McCarthy?

It is hardly all inclusive. A much longer list, is all the Republicans who supported Donald Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was rigged (election deniers).

Link, Election deniers in Congress

It was no surprise to see Senator Tommy Tuberville listed as an election denier. A short biography of Senator Tuberville, shows he is totally off the rails, in blocking the normal promotion of our military leaders.

Wikipedia, Tommy Tuberville

MSNBC

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/senate-confirms-key-military-nominees-tuberville-blockade-rcna116884

I believe that in not fixing what is not broken, which includes our military, our courts, the FBI, law enforcement, and the Department of Justice. Crashing our economy not raising the debt ceiling hurts everyone. False claims of a rigged election in 2020, damage our democracy.

There is a lot to be done going forward. Global warming is a huge problem. People have lost lives in Maui and California, and around the world in forest fires. This is real, and please don’t re-elect representatives who will do nothing. Russia can not be allowed to extend its borders. The US support of Ukraine is extremely important.

I believe in fixing what is broken, and that is the radical members of the Republican party. The next election will be critical in showing these out of control destructive members the door.

Stay tuned,

Dave