As Trump assembles his next cabinet, Vladimir Putin has been assembling his troops for a major offensive. It is being called the counter offensive, because Ukrainian forces seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast region in August 2024.
Russia prepared for the attack by amassing approximately 50,000 troops according to recent reports. North Korea is reported to have sent 10,000 troops. It is unknown at this point how many North Koreans soldiers will be involved in combat.
What Russia was counting on, was that Ukraine would fight a purely defensive war. CNN reports:
The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.
Previously, Ukraine had air strikes inside Russia, hitting strictly military targets. Ukraine’s objective is to use the occupation of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia, in hopes of a negotiated settlement.
An old military saying is the best defense is a good offense. Russia has to divert troops it would needs to hold and advance the occupied region of Ukraine to the south of Kursk to launch the counter-offensive to re-take the Kursk region.
Russia’s Intent
The city of Sudzha, Russia is very close to the Russian border with Ukraine. With the help of North Korea, Russia will retake Sudzka, then cross over into Ukraine and take Sumy, which lies just 225 miles east of Kyiv.
So, the invasion started with Russia wanting to capture Kyiv rapidly with Belarus support, by sending tanks south over the Belarus-Ukraine border, beginning in Chernobyl. Now, it will be a drive from eastward from Sudzka, to Sumy and finally Kyiv.
US Policy
I am certain at this moment, the Biden administration is looking at everything possible to help defend Ukraine. They have allowed American contractors to enter Ukraine, to repair military equipment. Of vital importance, are the Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets. Also, per the link below, Biden is planning to send “billions of dollars” in defense aid before leaving office.
I don’t think Russia will make its move toward Sumy until after January 20, 2025. This is a rapidly evolving story, and I don’t know how well Ukraine can defend the captured territory in Russia.
The US has provided Ukraine with long range missile systems, but has not permitted Ukraine to use them against targets deep into Russia territory. It is obvious, that despite all efforts, the war escalates. Drones are being used on both sides. Fake drones are used to, in order to draw off the firing, so the real drones can be more effective.
Trump has stated often, that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine if he were president. Now, if the Sudzka invasion does takes place, it places Ukraine’s survival as an independent country at risk.
It is political aggression. Anger motivates people into action. But anger as a result of a stream of lies, will motivate people to make the wrong choices.
Hurricane Milton took 32 lives and destroy homes, particularly in Florida. People in the affected areas are struggling to put their lives back together. And Trump is lying about FEMA, that they depleted all their money paying for housing for immigrants, and now they have no money to help the poor victims.
I really liked the way super Republican Governor DeSantis put it, that he hadn’t been in touch with Biden, because FEMA gave this state, Florida, everything they asked for. And he added, that if they don’t provide everything, then he’s calling. That’s exactly what FEMA does, partner with the states in helping to rebuild.
The anger is misdirected at FEMA when it should really be directed at Trump for playing politics with a national disaster.
Demonizing Immigrants
And what Trump said about immigrants did make me angry, not because my mother was an immigrant, and so was my wife, but because his claims were just a huge pack of lies. And people were cheering in Madison Garden, when they should have been pouring out of the stadium in disgust.
Trump said Harris “has imported criminal migrants from prisons and jails, insane asylums and mental institutions from all around the world, from Venezuela to the Congo.” Pure MAGA hate speech, and of course it’s a terrible lie. Many immigrants with criminal records have been denied entry in the US. Communities with high immigrant populations have less violent crime. Kamala Harris was not put in charge of border security.
Trump said Harris “vowed to abolish” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Of course, this is false. Harris wants to hire many more border agents. The bill that Trump had Congress kill, included hiring many more judges to hear (and usually dismiss) amnesty cases. Harris will get the 2024 Immigration bill passed. Donald Trump will not, and keep it a hot political issue.
This is a new one, which gets down right weird. Trump said Harris “called for free sex change operations on illegal aliens in detention at taxpayer expense.” First, it really isn’t an issue, because this has never happened with a detained immigrant. Criminals can not be denied medical treatment, so there has been just two inmates who have sex change operation. This is obviously another “hot button” hate issue, combining immigrants with all kinds of other problems.
Violent Crime is way up.
I’m certain that a lot of people went home after watching Trump, and thought how they could better protect their families. Trump said, “Your crime is through the roof” and that newly released statistics showed that “crime was up 45%” under the Biden-Harris administration.
The latest six months data for 2024, showed just the opposite, violent crime was substantially down.
The new numbers show murders from January to June dropped 23% compared with the same period in 2023, while violent crime fell 10% and reported rapes decreased by 18%. Aggravated assaults during that period decreased 8% year over year, according to the data, while robberies fell 14% and reported property crime was down 13%. These are preliminary numbers as not every city has reported.
The 2023 report, which included figures from every major city in the nation, showed a dramatic 12% drop in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, as well as a 3% fall in violent crime.
I will not go into detail about the many lies regarding the so called “rigged” 2020 election, the Department of Justice investigation, tariffs or the economy. Nor Trump’s appeasement when it comes to Ukraine. His denial of climate change, means we lose our seat at the table, negotiating with the other world leaders on carbon emissions. We will lose four years in the needed transition from non-renewable fossil fuels. California forest fires and two devastating hurricanes are telling us extreme weather events are very real. Trump isn’t capable of addressing global problems, period. He will choose Russia over Europe and weaken NATO. No doubt about it.
Trump’s chosen path to the White House must be rejected
Fear and lies should not be the path to the White House. Trump is using fear to mobilize his supporters to the polls. Without the non-stop lies, Trump could not get elected.
He depends on his supporter not questioning what he says. A little fact checking shows an abundance of lies on just about every topic. (see links at the end)
If you agree with this posting, feel free to pass it on. An informed electorate is necessary part of holding our democracy together. Trump gives his supporters what they want to hear – disinformation and is a divider, not a uniter. On stage with Trump, there were no former Republican candidates, nor members of his former cabinet. Nor the Vice President, Mike Pence, who Trump regularly disparages.
He lost his more moderate supporters as he supported radical groups who assembled on January 6 to attack the Capitol, and he just watched the violence on television for two hours without making a single phone call. After all, they were wearing MAGA caps as they battled with Capitol police. Remember?
The presidential race is extremely close. In the US, we chose our president, so please vote.
Latest numbers on inflation and job growth were pretty good. For election forecasters, these are the “pocketbook” factors, which generally make the electorate like or dislike the incumbent.
Pretty big topic. I start with a few truisms. We complain more than we praise. We use words like prices have soared, but rarely talk about prices plummeting. Increasing demand for many commodities, cause prices to go up, as it takes time for supply to catch up for demand.
During an election year, we attribute inflation more on who is president than anything else. We hate strong economies because prices go up, and poor economies, because unemployment goes up. And the last truism, is that good government policies take time to see the benefits, and someone else can be running the government by that time.
We also over-react to headlines. There always at least one commentator who has drastic remedies, which come from exaggerated claims. For example egg prices. We all survived the egg crisis.
Egg prices are now $3.82 a dozen. That’s down from nearly $5.00 a dozen, but nobody is going around and saying the Biden administration did a great job in bringing down the cost of eggs. In the US, we had the largest bird flu epidemic in our history and 101 million chickens were slaughtered. It takes time to replace the flock. Government does help with agricultural losses, something we had to learn the hard way during the depression. But farmers still are part of the solution. Plus a strong economy means that demand is still good, even at higher prices.
Of course, eggs are not the problem. I use it simply to illustrate that higher prices and a stable demand provides strong motivation of farmers to replace their flocks. During Covid, the cost of many goods and services plummeted and unemployment soared. So, be careful what you wish for. Covid wasn’t Trump’s fault, and egg prices were not Biden’s fault.
Economists are usually taking a much longer view. In March 2020, nobody really knew how long the epidemic was going to last. Many people in the hospitality and retail sector were losing their jobs. It was terrible for them, but the stimulus money helped some. Online courses allowed many to continue their education. It was mostly a case of adapting to a very different economy. We have since recovered.
The latest release of inflation index (Urban Consumer Price Index) shows a 2.3% increase in prices over last year. This increase doesn’t seem too bad. However, we are weeks away from the election so there is a lot of cherry picking of these numbers. Just for the record, unemployment and overall inflation has not skyrocketed this year. It has gone down.
Gasoline prices are down 10% and fuel oil down 7%, from last year. Average cost at the pump is $3.10/gal for regular gas. Many factors affect gas prices, but certainly high prices in 2022, gave homeowners a big incentive to consider energy saving measures like using LED lighting for their home and solar panels for both heating and power generation. Federal programs to provide incentives for electric vehicles purchases, also help in reducing the demand for gasoline.
Trump has an objective to cut people’s energy cost in half:
“If you make doughnuts, if you make cars – whatever you make, energy is a big deal, and we’re going to get that – it’s my ambition to get your energy bill within 12 months down 50%.”
Energy analyst Patrick De Haan, understood the mechanisms of supply and demand, in a recent NPR interview:
“It was President Biden that had eliminated leases in some areas on federal land. Now, keep in mind, federal land is a very small total of U.S. oil production on federal land, so it wouldn’t have a big impact, but ultimately, there are some things that the president can do to incentivize oil companies, but ultimately, it’s at oil companies’ whims if they’d like to increase production or not. And should oil prices decline to the point the president likes, it would be at a point where many oil companies are losing money on every barrel.”
Gas prices will not go to $1.50/gallon under Trump, unless the economy is really broken and unemployment is sky high. Gas prices in my area are 10% higher at around $3.30/gallon. New supply is directly related to new investments in exploration, which can take more than five years to bring onstream and many projects have taken over a decade, before production.
The cost of renting an apartment is in general higher on year-over-year basis. The average rent of an apartment in the US is about $2000/month. In Miami, it’s $1,000 more, around $3,000/month. According to Zillow, rents over the last year have been going down.
Kamala Harris has a housing plan to help with rising prices. It’s focused on helping first time home buyers. For apartment renters, price fixing is real, and the intent is to stop free competition. So, while it didn’t make headline news, the Justice Department sued RealPages for using AI intelligence to set rental prices, in violation of antitrust laws.
I am certain Kamala Harris will give the Department of Justice all the support it needs, in pursuing antitrust lawsuits, like these to end price fixing of apartment rents. As a candidate collecting rents, rather than paying them, Donald Trump will likely be on the side of RealPages in fixing rents. Antitrust cases are not easily won.
Trump will install a business friendly Attorney General, and antitrust litigation will be history. He did his best to destroy the Consumer Finance Protection Agency, which intervened on the side of consumers in dishonest payday loan businesses, very similar to illegal loan sharking.
If the economy is doing well, it will take time for new apartments and houses to be built. So, the benefit to the housing plan will take time, if she can get it through the Republican controlled Congress.
So, Republicans are playing a very old game, and that is to attack the incumbent. Of course, the problem has been getting anything through the Republican led Congress which wants to make Biden look bad. Trump successfully killed the 2024 immigration bill, so he could tell the nation that our immigration policy was broken.
I’ll end this blog with a couple of links. One is a short video clip from Barrack Obama, with a very simple message. It can take years for bills to become law, and their impact can be in terms of decades. Trump cut taxes for the very wealthy, and our debt went up in the years that followed.
The second short link is about a totally false ad that Trump is using, that shows a video clip of Kamala Harris saying she will raise taxes. The video clip has been edited, and her comments were directed at the very wealthy. This is followed with another lie, that her tax policies will cost Americans $2580 per year. Actually, she has not proposed any such tax. Her tax increases are all focused on the wealthiest of Americans.
Of course, we have one candidate who gets his support from billionaires, like Elon Musk, who might be affected. Also, Donald Trump is able to show loses in his properties, so he pays nearly no tax.
So, yes the economy and tax policies are very hot issues in the election. I urge people not to vote for Trump and his doctored up video clips, and other dishonest actions. And the boast that he will drop the price of gas in half- are we that naive?
The economy may falter in the years ahead, but I feel she will continue to pursue good economic policies over politics.
CNN headlines: AI helped the feds catch $1 billion of fraud in one year. And it’s just getting started
The US Treasury is getting smarter on catching check frauds. Machine learning (ML) is a subset of AI. The ML algorithms can identify patterns and anomalies that indicate fraudulent behavior, making it possible for businesses to detect and prevent fraud in real time.
Forbes article from 2023, goes into more detail on different approaches. There are many articles on the internet. I selected this one, as it is not promoting one particle system.
Now, here’s the problem. If Trump gets elected, I expect fraud investigations will not have much priority. In fact, he may hate the Treasury Department and the Department of Justice efforts to investigate fraud using machine learning tools to comb through millions of records to find patterns of fraud.
It is because the Trump organization has been convicted of massive business fraud and must pay 464 million dollars (includes accrued interest). The case is now in the Appellate Court, which can reduce the fine. The bail required to proceed with the appeals was reduced.
Trump record of pardons and commutations is definitely towards very wealthy and corrupt business leaders.
In December 2020, Trump commuted the sentence of Philip Esformes who was convicted of a 1.6 billion dollar medicare fraud scheme. Prosecutors described him as the linchpin of the “largest single criminal health care fraud case ever brought against individuals by the Department of Justice.” The served 4 years in prison before Trump freed him.
It is totally hypocritical to claim that eliminating Medicare fraud is a priority, and then pardon those who commit massive fraud.
Philip Esformes was recently arrested on a domestic violence charge.
I am very glad to see people convicted of fraud and obstruction of justice get convicted.
Republicans used to be the law and order party. The law and order candidates in 2024 are Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. No pardons for the wealthy, Democrat and Republican.
The 1950’s was a good time for some, and a bad time from others. Soldiers, latinos, blacks, whites and every ethnic group imaginable, fought the war together. They served this country and on returning home, found there were neighborhoods where they couldn’t live, restaurants where they couldn’t eat, and schools where they could not send their children. Another words, it was a different world without an uniform.
Ethnic and racial hatred were strong in my parents era, and Trump is re-igniting these hatreds, in this last month before the election. He attacked Barrack Obama, claiming he was an illegitimate president. He claimed Obama was born in Kenya, Africa. It was of course, total nonsense, but Trump swore he had proof. Trump lies, and he never admits when proven wrong.
Now, it is the Haitian immigrants who have managed to the escape the earthquake or turmoil in Haiti, and live and work legally in our country under temporary protected status. The CNN special last night, highlighted the community of Springfield, Ohio, where many Haitians live. They are refugees, as their lives were in danger from roaming gangs which controlled much of the country. The refugees had to prove to immigration that their lives were in danger, based on their positions within the government, such as a policeman or politician.
The claim that “immigrants” are taking our homes has been taken way out of context. Strong housing demand in a particular area is good. It means that in a particular area, people are finding jobs and can afford the “American dream” of their own house. So, strong housing demand creates a building boom, exactly what has happened in Springfield, Ohio. See CNN link below.
I will not repeat in this blog, all the terrible things Trump has said about immigrants. He singled out the Haitians living in one small community. Actually, the truth is, the Haitians are contributing to the community, working and paying taxes and crime rates have come down.
My grandparents immigrated from France in the 1930’s with a daughter that needed medical treatment. My grandmother went shopping in department stores, not to buy clothes, but so she copy the clothes and sew at home clothes for her 3 daughters and son. Her son was a war hero during World War II, and her children studied at top universities, including Columbia University and Harvard.
So, as I watched the CNN special, my heart went out to the families of Haitians, as they look for work, pay taxes and raise families, just as my grandparents did.
JD Vance stated that the Haitians were illegal, but this was a lie. Trump has gone further, describing anyone who is in the country without documents as a criminal. This would be anyone who has overstayed their visa, or through no fault of their own, missed filing deadlines for visa extensions. He has promised a program to search for, and deport every illegal immigrant. He can make it much more difficult for other refugees from the bombed out areas of Ukraine, and war victims from Afghanistan to migrate to the US.
Trump’s efforts to denigrate and demonize immigrants, appeals to radical white supremacy groups, who have no respect for the law. They are blinded by the hyper nationalism of the MAGA movement. These groups believe in a purity of race ideas espoused by fascists.
This is not the era of the KKK nor the McCarthy era of the 1950. In the 1950’s, there were grand conspiracy theories that communism was like a disease and the government had to question the patriotism of prominent Americans and certain activities, like civil rights marches were considered “Unamerican.” This is why the FBI kept a file on Martin Luther King. The days of “separate but equal” are gone.
The way forward was in the bipartisan Immigration Act of 2024, which would hire more judges to hear amnesty cases. Trump got Congress to kill this bill because it would hurt his re-election campaign.
So, Harris message is right for our times. “We can’t go back.”
If you agree with this post, please consider sharing it with others.
The news reporting is frequently the same on both networks. If there is some big event, like a plane crash, the content on both networks will be pretty much the same.
The difference is in commentary. Fox News supports conservatives, including Donald Trump. CNN supports Kamala Harris but will report on news damaging to her campaign. The difference is apparent on their websites.
Fox Example
Today on the FOX News website is the headline “Melania Trump releases new video with warning to all Americans ahead of a 100 million dollar lawsuit.” This is a teaser headline. The key words are “ahead of.” Trump hasn’t filed a lawsuit.
Seriously, who is he going to sue? The FBI? Filing a frivolous lawsuit can backfire. If search is illegal, then all evidence is thrown out. This is the case law since the 1961 “Mapp” Case by the US Supreme Court. Note, that the three more conservative justices did not want to extend the protection to searches by state and local authorities.
This is a case of more false information on Twitter, but this time, in support of Kamala Harris. There is a second Twitter account which is uncovering all the lies this Twitter account.
Video clips of Trump or JD Vance have been edited to make them deceptive or false. As stated in the CNN article, this was done recently. They cite eight different examples including one where the post infers that Trump was confused on the name of the state of the rally was occurring. It is a complete lie. CNN calls these hacked videos misleading. I would call them a complete lie.
My take
Fox News is more likely to post misleading “news stories” which are really commentary. Fox News headlines of a 100 million dollar lawsuit, which does not exist. And if Trump’s lawyers say they will sue Biden, they are forgetting they just won in the Supreme Court on presidential immunity.
CNN commentary is often biased, but they are doing a better job with fact checking. This includes fact checking pro-Harris twitter posts.
Don’t go to Youtube, Twitter, Facebook or any other social media. It is mostly political entertainment. It is not reliable information.
This election is extremely important. All candidates talk big about democracy and the rule of law. But, Trump proved to the American people he only believes in democracy when he wins an election. The “Stop the Steal” effort by Trump and his supporters, post 2020 election, is a sad chapter in our history. Donald Trump encouraged the mob that ransacked our capitol, because he thought he was more important than the country.
“Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States … President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution.” Mike Pence, Former Vice President of the United States.
“He will always put his own interests and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interest.” Bill Barr, former Attorney General under Trump.
Trump urged his supporters to leave the Capitol only after hours of rioting, dozens of security police had been injured and five people had died. It could have been far worse. There was a huge arsenal of weapons, stored in a hotel room in Virginia, by the Oath Keepers. Their leader made the decision not to bring these weapons to the Capitol as it could tip off the police on his plans. We were perilously close to a massacre of elected officials in our Capitol. Number 1 target would have been Mike Pence, because he was in charge of counting the votes, as he was obligated to do as Vice President and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.
The core group of attackers planned, by any means possible, to overcome the security forces and break the windows and doors of the Capitol building. By their testimony and Trump’s promise that he would join them on the morning before the attack, they felt like they were part of Trump’s army, to restore their leader to power. I’ve seen this before in other countries, where leaders or candidates for office blatantly disregard the rule of law, but never in my country.
Trump would not condemn the attackers. He called those who participated in January 6 as patriots. To me, the real patriots were the Capitol police and many were injured as they tried to protect the elected officials.
In fact, Trump has stated he would pardon many of the rioters if re-elected.
It is consistent with his claim that the US Department of Justice, under Biden, is corrupt. Of course, in the chaos of the riot, the investigation by the FBI of the many individuals responsible took time. Credit should be given to the many individual agents who poured over videos both outside and inside the Capitol.
A lot of credit goes to FBI Director, Chris Wray, a Trump appointee. In so many areas, ranging from cybercrimes to combating the influx of drugs, Director Wray has done an excellent job.
If elected, I think Trump will likely fire FBI Director Wray, because the FBI conducted a court approved search of Mar-a-Lago. He’ll find some pre-text to fire Wray. But the search was very personal.
“The depths of his dishonesty is just astonishing to me… He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.” John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security and White House Chief of Staff
Biden will keep our country strong, by his leadership. Remember, Christopher Wray was Trump’s choice to lead the FBI for the next 10 years. And Biden kept him on. Democracy is built around a peaceful transfer of power through elections. The people at the ballot box decide, not a mob attacking the Capitol.
Some people try to associate court trials with other things they are familiar with and it is usually a disaster. Court cases are not like the movies. They can go on for months. It is also not a ballgame. It doesn’t end in nine innings.. Decisions are appealed.
The public knows who they like and dislike, and believes the accused should either be set free or in jail for the rest of their lives. The Republican politicians went years claiming Hillary Clinton had committed all sorts of crimes. But, finally, one Democrat has been charged with profiting from his high position, Senator Bob Menendez. His wife has also been charged.
Hunter Biden and Steve Bannon will go on trial unless either can cut a plea agreement. These trials will be headline news, because of their close association with President Biden and Donald Trump. In both cases, there has been zero evidence these actions involved either Biden or Trump. Both will have the best lawyers money can buy, but the evidence against them will make or break their cases.
And then of course there is Trump and his two civil cases and four criminal ones. I have written extensively about this and there are many Trump legal problems trackers out there. The final conclusion of the civil case against Trump and his organization for the overvaluation of properties will end quietly, as the judge will simply file the judgment in late January and Trump will appeal.
The disqualification issue must be decided by the Supreme Court. This case and the immunity case will be historical landmark cases. I think only 3 of the 4 criminal cases will likely be tried in 2024, with the Georgia conspiracy case, starting either late 2024 or early 2025. The Supreme Court has a number of highly contentious cases, of which I’ve commented on the abortion pill.
An independent judicial system is one. of the cherished rights of all Americans. If someone has been unjustly accused, the appropriate place to seek justice is the courtroom, not on social media or cable news stations.
So in sum, the system is working as it is intended. The appeal process is an additional check that ensures convictions are in accordance with the law and the rights of individuals are protected.
Republican members of Congress should not be involved in any of these cases. They should not attempt to tilt the balance of justice against Hunter Biden or in favor of Donald Trump. By their meddling in trials, through their power to subpoena, they are hindering our system of justice.
I fear a re-election of Donald Trump and his disrespect for the judiciary will severely damage our judiciary system. His use of pardons for political purposes would be an attack on the sacred right of justice for all, that comes from a conscientious and independent judiciary system. Might makes right approach whether by Congress or the President brings us one step closer to tyranny.
What will work, is an informed public who understands the judiciary has a very independent role vital to our system of government.
The efforts to disqualify Donald Trump from running for president, under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment are not succeeding. It has been in the news recently, as the Colorado Supreme Court heard oral arguments on December 5, 2023. The Court can either uphold the lower court ruling, and keep Trump on the ballot, or reverse the decision, and then Trump is off the ballot. Appeals to the Supreme Court for an emergency hearing would be immediately submitted if he is taken off the ballot. Otherwise, I believe this will end the challenge in Colorado and the dismissal will be permanent.
Colorado’s district court dismissed the lawsuit, stating Section 3 of the 14th Amendment did not apply to the president. But, the ruling likely pleased petitioners in part, as the judge opined that the violence on January 6, 2021 did qualify as an insurrection.
Other lower court dismissals (Minnesota, Michigan, Florida and New Hampshire) offered a chance for re-filing. Minnesota district court considered that Section 3 did not apply to primaries. Michigan district court considered disqualification a political question, not one to be decided by the courts.
The two other cases (Florida and New Hampshire) were rejected quickly on a demonstration of actual harm if Donald Trump ran for president. In New Hampshire, an attorney, John Anthony Castro, registered to run for president, and tried to convince the court, that allowing Donald Trump on the ballot, would cause his candidacy harm. The courts didn’t buy it.
The courts in other states will take notice of the many ways to dismiss legal challenges. Certainly ruling that a case has no standing, is the most efficient one, as the court does not need to get into the more nuanced arguments of whether Trump encouragement of the January 6 violence was “engaging in insurrection.”
The basis of democracy is we select our president at the ballot box by having all eligible voters being able to cast their ballot. Excluding a candidate from even one state, could be decisive in a close election. I have posted an opinion previously that these lawsuits run counter to our democratic processes. The courts should lean towards narrow interpretation of rules and laws and restrict their role in deciding whether to exclude both voters and candidates in the election process.
This is thoroughly covered by the news media. I just wanted to clarify a few points:
(1) Why is this a non-jury trial?
Engoron said that neither side sought a jury and that state law doesn’t allow for juries when suits seek not only money but a court order setting out something a defendant must do or not do.
Trump has complained that he is being railroaded by a biased judge. It’s unclear whether a jury trial would have been available under New York Executive Law 63(12), the statute under which the case was brought, and may legal experts believe it likely would not have been. Trump’s spokesperson emphasized this point in a statement.
“The Attorney General filed this case under a consumer protection statute that denies the right to a jury,” the spokesperson [for Trump] told The Messenger. “It is unfortunate that a jury won’t be able to hear how absurd the merits of this case are and conclude no wrongdoing ever happened.”
But the judge’s remark highlights that neither side sought to litigate the issue.
(2) Why can’t we see it on television?
Both this trial and the hush money criminal trial will not be televised. Generally, court cases can not be televised without special permission. The same with the federal January 6 case and the classified documents case. Now, the Georgia case, with 18 defendants, will be televised.
(3) Why is Trump allowed to attack prosecutors and the judge?
I think no gag order has been requested, as there is no jury which could be compromised if they heard these hostile statements.
(4) When is AG Letitia James planning to call important witnesses?
The list of potential witnesses, both for the prosecution and rebuttal have been provided to the courts. There are 28 witnesses. This list has #4 Allen Weiselberg, #6 Michael Cohen and #14 Ivanka Trump. The prosecution will end Eric, Donald Jr. and Donald Trump, followed by an expert witness on Commercial Banking and Disgorgement Amounts. There are 25 other potential rebuttal witnesses. To have the defense present their case, prosecution could wrap up in mid November – that’s just my guess.
Eric, Donald Jr. and Donald Trump are also on the defense potential list of witnesses. There is a very good chance they will not take the stand.
(5) Is there any credible evidence that this judge is biased towards Trump?
Zero. His handling of the case so far, has been praised by experts in civil lawsuits. Of course Donald Trump has a different opinion, “I have a Deranged, Trump Hating Judge, who RAILROADED this FAKE CASE through a NYS Court at a speed never before seen,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
That’s classic Trump, always on the offense.
(6) Is there any evidence that the Attorney General is targeting Trump?
Of course, it is her job to investigate wrong doing especially when Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, testified in Congress and wrote a book about all the illegal activities of Donald Trump. Successfully prosecuting Allen Weiselberg was a major step in charging Donald Trump, his two sons and the Trump business in this case with fraud.
(7) Is Trump and his organization being judged more harshly than similar cases?
Yes, when there is strong evidence of persistent fraud, the New York State law is more harsh. I happen to agree with harsh laws for repeat violators. There is a lower bar to prove fraud.
Hopefully, they can conclude the trial before Christmas.
I support Joe Biden in 2024. There is no better candidate.
Let me state that the chief criticism of Biden is his age, which is 80 years old. Donald Trump is 77 years old. Mitch McConnell is 81 years old. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is 75 years old. They all are putting in some very long work days and making vital decisions. Ed Meese, who recently helped former US Assistant Attorney General Jeffery Clark to remove Clark from state court, is 91 years old, and I have no doubt, with his decades of government experience including being Attorney General, provided excellent legal support to Clark.
I don’t worry about Joe. He may not be able to lift weights like Putin, but he definitely holds his own on the global stage.
Joe Biden has no serious opposition. Robert Kennedy, Jr. and Marianne Wilkerson are two announced candidates. Robert Kennedy is a weird blend of radical conspiracy public health issues and isolationist policies, like zero support for Ukraine. Marianne Wilkerson writes books on spiritualism. Kennedy and Wilkerson, are two off-the-wall candidates.
Now, the Republican candidates. Trump is the front runner by far, and this has me scared. He will return to the presidency with revenge in mind. The Director of the FBI won’t last a day, and Director Christopher Wray is his appointment. Of course, he detests the IRS, and will be pardoning every tax cheat, including himself, if he can. In fact, everyone Trump was working with in the last month of his term in office will be needing pardons. Do not vote for a twice impeached candidate who has been charged with 91 criminal counts. Your local criminal is probably more law-biding and honest than Trump.
If you are a die hard Republican, who else is there? Either Governor Asa Hutchison and Nikki Haley would be a well relief from the constant BS from the overblown Donald, and they have real government experience. I admit that I like Chris Christie but his polling numbers are way down. The rest, I hate to say this, but they are almost as bad as Trump.
I despise Ron DeSantis. He is forever on the attack. Yes, we have a drug problem in the US. A full blown invasion of Mexico isn’t the solution. Isn’t that why we are defending Ukraine, because their neighbor (Russia, I hope you know this) invaded them. DeSantis has picked fights with almost any organization in Florida, including Disney, public health, school curriculum and university programs, etc.
The rest are non-starters. See link below, breaking up the candidates into normalish, semi-normal and abnormal. The author gets to 3 candidates, by adding 1/2 Christie and 1/2 Burgum. I would consider Mike Pence normalish, except he accepted the vice presidency with Trump. A man with religion doesn’t do that!
Members of the off the wall gang include Robert Kennedy and Marianne Wilkerson on the Democrat side and Vivek Rameswany, Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis on the Republican side. The first three candidates have zero government experience. Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis are appealing to the most extreme faction of the Republican party.
So, I know many people do not like Joe Biden, but he is our best chance of working with other nations and making life better. The fires in California and in Maui, the terrible storm and floods in Derna, Libya and hurricane Idalia have one factor in common: Global Warming. Trump and the rest of the Republicans will do nothing to reduce carbon emission, because they know their base includes climate change deniers.
I am looking for problem solvers, not politicians. Global problems require global solutions. Putin is a threat to world stability. Same with North Korea and China. Stay with Joe.
Donald Trump has been found guilty of sexual abuse and defamation in a civil proceedings in New York City. It is a civil case, so he must pay for the harm he has caused by his actions. The assault is claimed to occurred in 1996, approximately 27 years ago.
He can not be charged with the crime of sexual assault or rape, because of the statute of limitations. A criminal case would have a higher burden of proof. It also has a number of protections for the accused.
Trump’s lawyers are certain to provide numerous reasons why he received an unfair trial in their appeal. Likely they will be explaining these reasons on cable news. One of them is the Adult Survivors Act. The ASA creates a one-year lookback window for sexual assault survivors to pursue civil claims in court for abuse that may have occurred years earlier, as long as they were over 18 at the time. Previously, a person who experienced sexual abuse only had a few years to file a lawsuit in New York before their claim would be time-barred.
The window is from November 22, 2022 to November 23, 2023. So from now until Nov 23, victims have the right to file civil complaints for claims that may go back 50 years ago or more. They had to be 18 years old at the time. It will be argued in the appeal, that the law did not have sufficient safeguards for the accused.
Statute of limitations help protect people of being accused of a crime that occurred so far in the past, that it would be unreasonable to expect the accused from being able to recall what happened on a particular day and find rebuttal witnesses. But, it can deny victims their day in court. It is especially important in cases where DNA and other evidence has been collected.
I intend to follow this case from a legal perspective. * The appellate court will not determine if Trump received a fair trial, as this is a very open question. What they will rule on is, whether his appeal is valid, based on court records, judge’s decisions, the rules of evidence and his constitutional rights, which are intended to provide the accused with reasonable protections in a civil case. It may be a very long time until this is resolved.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Note: I am not a lawyer. I don’t know if the filings are posted on the internet. Certainly, Trump’s lawyers will come up with a dozen reasons why the case should be overturned. As this is being played out, they will attempt to settle the case with Carroll privately.
People involved in the violence of January 6 need to go to jail. I don’t ever want our Capital police to be afraid of a mob. One death of a police officer and over 150 people injured. Unfortunately, some of those who stormed the Capital, were thinking they were patriots and doing something in the national interest. A patriot does not break the law and threaten police. There have been 884 individuals arrested. There is a constitutional right to assemble and protest, but violence can never be condoned.
People involved in the planning of the storming of the Capital and other activities aimed at illegal actions to overturn our elections, need to be tried and go to jail. I hope the efforts of the Department of Justice will result in convictions of the top echelons in the Trump campaign organizers.
Those individuals who think subpoenas for documents and testimony are optional, will need time to rethink their decision behind bars. That includes Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon. I’d like to see more convictions.
Others will suffer the consequences of making false claims in court by actions taken by Dominion voting machines. This includes Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani. These are civil cases, which are tough to prove. Rudy Giuliani’s law license has been suspended in New York, and similar proceedings are occurring in Washington.
Whether Donald Trump or his closest allies will be charged with crimes, remains to be seen. The latest scandal is the apparent erasing of text messages by the Secret Service, and likely connected to the leadership in Homeland Security. Obstruction of justice is a criminal offense.
New laws need to be enacted, so there is not the slightest doubt that State legislatures can never override the outcome of elections. Claims of election fraud are always serious, and the courts are the proper place to address any irregularities. After the Safe Harbor date of December 8 has passed, lawsuits which challenge the results are frivolous
Within new laws, the role of the Vice President on January 6 should be made absolutely clear, his role is strictly ceremonial.
New laws will not be enough. The electorate needs to help clean house. Yes, “Drain the Swamp” if you like the phrase. I have a long list of Senators and Congress representatives who I’d like to see gone after their election.
The January 6 committee has shown us so clearly that Donald Trump did not care at all for the orderly transition of government or respect for decision of the electorate. Mike Pence did what every Vice President has done. He stood at inauguration day with President Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
The White House was an open door to people who had no respect for the rule of law. The President sat there on December 18, while “outside advisors” (aka, the crazies) suggested he fire his entire staff, and direct the military to seize voting machines. This was simply to stop the next administration from being sworn in on Jan 20. His actions immediately after this meeting, was to tell everyone to come to the Capital on January 6, because “it’s going to be wild.”
The message was clear, that although the electorate had spoken, Trump had no reservations on breaking the law, so he could stay in power. This is by definition a planned coup. He nearly fired the acting Attorney General, Jeffrey Rosen, because he would not sign a memo to be sent to Georgia, filled with false statements on election fraud.
Trump and his supporters encouraged a riot that they knew would be violent. This was brought out so clearly in the hearing as Trump’s security detail wanted metal detectors to protect the president, but he did not, as he said these were “his people.” He targeted his own vice president in his speech on January 6.
A good first step, would be the “firing” by the electorate on election day of the coup supporters, namely Rep. Pat Gosar, Senator Ted Cruz, Rep. Jody Hice, Rep. Josh Hawley. Rep Mo Brooks, Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene, Rep. Scott Perry and Rep. Louis Gohmert.
Of course, it is not who is voted out, but who comes in to replace this group of election deniers. We need senators and representatives who strongly believe we settle our differences at the ballot box.
Three organizations (APSA, Siena and C-Span) provided rankings of US presidents. These rankings were based on surveys of historians, generally from well known universities. The APSA (American Political Science Association) and Siena (Siena College Research Association) were done in 2018, so they do not reflect the last two years of Trump’s term in office.
Donald Trump was 45th president of the United States, however since Grover Cleveland was the 22 and 24th president, it means there were really 44 presidents. It is convenient to divide these rankings by quartiles, as ranks 1 to 10 are the top ranked presidents and 34 to 44 are the lowest ranked presidents. Wikipedia has consolidated these surveys and also provides a breakout of the ranking of various factors, such as integrity and leadership of each of these surveys.
Trump is considered one of the five worst presidents in these three surveys. C-SPAN rates Trump as the fourth worst president in history.
Survey
Trump (#45)
Pierce (#14)
Buchanan (#15)
Andrew Johnson (#17)
Harding (#29)
APSA (2018)
44
41
43
40
39
Siena (2018)
42
40
43
44
41
C-SPAN (2021)
41
42
44
43
37
Ranking of Donald Trump in the lower fourth quartile
Since Harding’s term was from 1921 to 1923, the surveys rank Trump at a level not seen about 100 years. So, what qualities are lacking in Trump and the other presidents in this table? Siena ranks Trump as the worst (rank = 44) in the areas of background, integrity, ability to compromise and executive appointments. Interestingly, he has high rating in “luck” and is in the third quartile in “willing to take risks.”
Similarly, C-Span (2021) puts Trump last of all presidents in the category of moral authority and administrative skills. He is in the bottom of the fourth quartile as are Pierce, Johnson and Buchanan in all categories (crisis leadership, economic management, international relationship and relations with congress) with the notable exception of public persuasion, where he is the ranked in the third quartile.
His continual stream of lies did not go unnoticed by the scholars. Getting the lowest ranking of any president in integrity (Siena) and moral authority (C-Span) reflect this. Donald Trump was never very interested in the truth, as his narratives were generally built on a stack of lies.
Being ranked lowest in “background” is pretty bad, but I believe accurate, as he never held office prior to being president.
The president is elected to do what is best for the country and not himself. This is part of the moral authority that great presidents have displayed. The January 6 committee will have public hearings in the spring, and will, I am certain, show Donald Trump had total disregard for the constraints of presidential power in his attempt to alter the outcome of the 2020 election. It is unprecedented in American history.
So what is this quality missing from these surveys? I guess it is “humility and respect” which Trump was not. He was arrogant and disrespectful of the system.
We have super huge global problem right now, that will need addressing immediately when the new president is sworn in. This will be one of 4 to 5 posts.
Covid-19
You first have to understand where we stand today, and make some extrapolations into the future. The first is there are 26 vaccines in Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical testing. Of these 26, there are 11 in Phase 3 testing.
I am hopeful that early in 2021, the very best vaccine will be approved for the American people. I think what is most important is for Americans to have patience, and delays are very possible. In many states, the progress we made made by preventative actions, such as wearing masks, social distancing, avoiding indoor activities, and frequent hand washing, has been lost to counterproductive premature loosening of regulations, including re-opening of bars, clubs and restaurants and allowing large gatherings.
— Biden will lead the way with full vaccination program
Let’s assume that we get a vaccine. There will not be enough to go around for months. First in line to get vaccinated must be our medical workers and then our elderly. They must get priority. A lot of difficult decisions lie ahead. Vaccination programs can not become political. Bring in the top Republicans and Democrats in any vaccination program.
Our Surgeon General has been sidelined, as well as our public health officials. It would seem that the office of Surgeon General should be front and center.
Trump has not been honest on the progress, because it is complicated to explain, and good news is always makes people happy. He can’t let go of marketing approach to news. Spin a good story, and buyers will be coming. That’s marketing.
Biden will connect with the scientific community. I am hopeful that a vaccine will be found. At present, it looks very possible that it will require two shots, an initial one and a booster shot, a few months later.
Biden will need to convince Americans to take the vaccines. It won’t be easy, as Trump has eroded the trust in American institutions like the FBI. Justice, State and Defense, FBI, Chief of Staff and National Security Agency. Each one are cases where he fired the Department head, with extremely bitter remarks.
He had further accused the Director of the National Institute of Health, Dr. Fauci of “being a Democrat” even though Dr. Fauci had been completely apolitical his whole career.
So, Biden’s best allies are medical professionals, the public health officials of every state, and Republicans in Congress, who can put American’s health above everything else.
— Biden will help extend vaccinations worldwide, for the benefit of all
We have to take a leadership role in the vaccination of 7.8 billion people in the world. This means working with the World Health Organization and other countries, instead of competing with them. It we miss this opportunity, China and Russia will see a golden opportunity to extend their reach into some of the poorest countries in the world, with huge promises but little in the way of deliverables.
World leadership isn’t an option. Our economy depends on the world economy. Trump has effectively pulled out of the World Health Organization and laid the blame of the virus on 1.4 billion Chinese. We must get ahead of the virus, not behind it. There are 2.8 million Chinese tourist that come to the US every year. Good relations help everyone.
— Biden will keep American’s insured
People will be getting sick and dying as experts try work out problems with vaccine formulations, manufacture and delivery. And of course, public acceptance. In the meantime, people will depend on health insurance to help them pay for their medical needs. Hospitalization stays for some individuals can be extensive, as more treatments help fight Covid-19. As we get smarter fighting the disease, the cost increases.
This is a terrible time to lose your Obamacare insurance. But that’s Trump plan and the third reason to elect Biden.
Trump and the Republican party began in 2017 a strategy to “Repeal and Replace” Obamacare. The individual mandate tax was eliminated, for two reasons: (1) It made the program less effective as fewer young people would likely sign up and (2) It made the program vulnerable to a new Supreme Court challenge. The first reason fits a Republican strategy, of after failing to come up anything better, they made Obamacare worse, so their alternative might look better. And that’s really awful.
Now, the second reason is just as terrible. Trump was always saying his plan was so much better to what we have now, but the comparisons were always bad. We’ve created “junk insurance” which gives coverage, except when it is critical and really expensive.
If you destroy what we have now, there are no more comparisons. We are no longer comparing a new building to an existing building, but to a vacant lot.
Obamacare was deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court in a narrow ruling in 2012, which included the individual mandate. So, Republicans pulled out the tax mandate, and then argued that the purposely crippled Obamacare law is now unconstitutional. So, if Trump ran a hospital, he would be giving out medicine strong enough to kill a patient and still claim he cared for people. Oral arguments will begin in November soon after the elections.
So, with Biden, Americans can have affordable insurance, which admittedly has defects. With Trump, you have recycled 2016 promises and nothing else.
Biden will:
Lead the way with a full vaccination program
Extend vaccinations assistance worldwide
Keep American’s insured to help with medical expenses.
In my next blog, climate change will be discussed.
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