immigration

We can’t go back (Part 2)

by Dave

We can’t go back to the early 1950’s

The 1950’s was a good time for some, and a bad time from others. Soldiers, latinos, blacks, whites and every ethnic group imaginable, fought the war together. They served this country and on returning home, found there were neighborhoods where they couldn’t live, restaurants where they couldn’t eat, and schools where they could not send their children. Another words, it was a different world without an uniform.

Ethnic and racial hatred were strong in my parents era, and Trump is re-igniting these hatreds, in this last month before the election. He attacked Barrack Obama, claiming he was an illegitimate president. He claimed Obama was born in Kenya, Africa. It was of course, total nonsense, but Trump swore he had proof. Trump lies, and he never admits when proven wrong.

Now, it is the Haitian immigrants who have managed to the escape the earthquake or turmoil in Haiti, and live and work legally in our country under temporary protected status. The CNN special last night, highlighted the community of Springfield, Ohio, where many Haitians live. They are refugees, as their lives were in danger from roaming gangs which controlled much of the country. The refugees had to prove to immigration that their lives were in danger, based on their positions within the government, such as a policeman or politician.

The claim that “immigrants” are taking our homes has been taken way out of context. Strong housing demand in a particular area is good. It means that in a particular area, people are finding jobs and can afford the “American dream” of their own house. So, strong housing demand creates a building boom, exactly what has happened in Springfield, Ohio. See CNN link below.

I will not repeat in this blog, all the terrible things Trump has said about immigrants. He singled out the Haitians living in one small community. Actually, the truth is, the Haitians are contributing to the community, working and paying taxes and crime rates have come down.

My grandparents immigrated from France in the 1930’s with a daughter that needed medical treatment. My grandmother went shopping in department stores, not to buy clothes, but so she copy the clothes and sew at home clothes for her 3 daughters and son. Her son was a war hero during World War II, and her children studied at top universities, including Columbia University and Harvard.

So, as I watched the CNN special, my heart went out to the families of Haitians, as they look for work, pay taxes and raise families, just as my grandparents did.

Link: Springfield Haitians weigh their future as Trump threatens deportations

JD Vance stated that the Haitians were illegal, but this was a lie. Trump has gone further, describing anyone who is in the country without documents as a criminal. This would be anyone who has overstayed their visa, or through no fault of their own, missed filing deadlines for visa extensions. He has promised a program to search for, and deport every illegal immigrant. He can make it much more difficult for other refugees from the bombed out areas of Ukraine, and war victims from Afghanistan to migrate to the US.

Trump’s efforts to denigrate and demonize immigrants, appeals to radical white supremacy groups, who have no respect for the law. They are blinded by the hyper nationalism of the MAGA movement. These groups believe in a purity of race ideas espoused by fascists.

This is not the era of the KKK nor the McCarthy era of the 1950. In the 1950’s, there were grand conspiracy theories that communism was like a disease and the government had to question the patriotism of prominent Americans and certain activities, like civil rights marches were considered “Unamerican.” This is why the FBI kept a file on Martin Luther King. The days of “separate but equal” are gone.

The way forward was in the bipartisan Immigration Act of 2024, which would hire more judges to hear amnesty cases. Trump got Congress to kill this bill because it would hurt his re-election campaign.

So, Harris message is right for our times. “We can’t go back.”

If you agree with this post, please consider sharing it with others.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Outrageous lies from Trump

by Dave

We are getting close to the end. Polls show no clear winner. My last post showed how Trump was demonizing immigrants, even Haitians who are here legally, and live in Springfield, Ohio. The evidence is that the crime rate among illegal immigrants, is less than legal residents.

Harris will raise your taxes – FALSE

The latest lie is a campaign video ad showing a clip where Harris says she wants to raise taxes in general. But critical words were cleverly deleted from the start and end of the statement as:

“estate taxes are gonna have to go up for the richest Americans.”

becomes “taxes are gonna have to go up.”

It is an outrageous to doctor up a clip and present it as part of a campaign television ad.

Other supporting statements are also doctored. Thee ad quotes the New York Times, but cuts out critical words. The quote “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations.” cuts out the words in bold.

The ad cites the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank, as the basis for a narrator’s claim that “Kamala’s plan will raise families’ taxes by nearly $2,600 a year.” This statement is loaded with problems, because the Tax Foundation never came up with this estimate, and second, Harris has not proposed eliminating tax benefits for those making less than $400,000 per year. It is the third lie in the ad.

See link: Fact check: New Trump attack ad deceptively edits out key words from Harris and The New York Times

Another outrageous lie on immigration:

Kamala Harris “let in the 13,099 convicted murderers and opposes all efforts to find them and to remove them.”

It is FALSE. He is using data from official documents, but it is completely mischaracterized. Most of the 13,099 people likely didn’t enter the U.S. in the last three and a half years; the full data goes back 40 years. Many of them are not in immigration detention because they’re in law enforcement custody serving sentences. Not everyone on the nondetained docket entered the U.S. illegally. Legal permanent residents who commit crimes can also end up on the docket. This is explained in the link below.

Link: Politifact

Trump is making a case that his policies would be best for the economy and stop illegal immigration. But, the foundation is mostly built on lies.

Vote for Kamala Harris.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Demonizing Immigrants

by Dave

Trump is peddling a huge lie, that Kamala Harris was the border czar and allowed everyone to cross the southern border, carrying with them drugs and guns. Seriously! And you have heard the rest. These were people released from mental institutions, or violent criminals, capable of rape and murder. In this blog, we will not touch on pet-eating Haitians.

I am preparing a second blog, just on immigration. It has been in preparation for over a week.

To begin with Kamala Harris was never the border czar. Her mission under Biden was to discuss with Central American countries on how best to keep their citizens from coming to the US illegally. The responsibility for border security was the Department of Homeland Security.

The October 2 Vice Presidential debate was similar to the Trump-Harris debate on immigration. At every turn, JD Vance was blaming immigrants for every problem in the United States, including the high cost of housing and crowding in our schools. So, if we just round up and get rid of immigrants, all our problems suddenly disappear.

JD Vance stated that there was a Federal Reserve report, showing that immigrants were driving up the cost of housing and rents.

“After the debate, Vance’s X account shared a link to remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who said that “the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents, as additional housing supply may take time to materialize” — though in the same speech, she said immigrants had also helped ease labor shortages.”

Sure. Miami grew by a huge influx of Cuban immigrants. And it helped our prosperity. Bowman was addressing immigrants in general, not illegal immigrants.

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/jd-vance-said-immigration-driving-housing-crisis-numbers-say-rcna173595

Many Haitians are living in Springfield, Ohio. They qualified for Temporary Protected Status, because of the current turmoil in Haiti. In their country of Haiti, gangs control much of the country. It is in a state of civil war. Should the country stabilize, they can lose their protected status from deportation.

Communities like Springfield, OH have not seen a significant increase in either communicable diseases, AIDS or violent crime. But on social media, Vance has claimed there has been a “massive rise” in communicable diseases. At times, he’s specifically singled out increases in HIV and tuberculosis. The county records show that vaccine-preventable diseases, infectious disease cases (without COVID) and sexually transmitted infections in 2023 were all lower than what they were during the Trump administration.

Tuberculosis has not been eliminated in the US. For a population of 138,000, Clark County total infection diseases decreased slightly from 2022 to 2023. Se link:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-jd-vances-claims-haitian-migrants-springfield/story?id=113844705

Excellent research work by the CDC will hopefully find a vaccine and affordable treatments for tuberculosis. Just keep Robert Kennedy, Jr. away from the CDC and FDA, his two nemesis.

Now, the US has a real problem with the smuggling of fentanyl into the US. Approximately 90% comes through Mexico, through legal ports of entry. Building a wall, to completely seal off the US, will not stop this trafficking. The smugglers are people who can pass easily through the US-Mexican checkpoints. The article below is excellent as to the participation of ordinary American citizens in the border smuggling.

Link: https://www.npr.org/2023/08/09/1191638114/fentanyl-smuggling-migrants-mexico-border-drugs

The US Drug Enforcement Agency has been able to catch both the drug smugglers and their network of drug distributors/sellers.

Oct 3, Fourteen indicted in multi-state drug trafficking conspiracy linked to deadly fentanyl distributed to members of the Lummi Nation

The Lummi Nation is the name of an Indian reservation.

Oct 2, 68 Defendants Charged in Indictment of Dozens of Members and Associates of San Fernando Valley White Supremacist Gang

This was a major bust. Kudos to the DEA and the Department of Justice.

The 2024 immigration bill would have funded better detection of fentanyl in suspected vehicles at legal ports of entry. Donald Trump was instrumental in killing this bill.

Final comments

I do not support illegal immigration. Neither does Kamala Harris. She wants more money to control the border and expediate amnesty petitions, many of which will be rejected. She will push through and sign the 2024 immigration bill as president.

Trump likes to demonize immigrants, including the Haitians living legally in Springfield, Ohio. They are his scapegoats for real problems. They are not rapist and murderers. They are here legally. His attack on immigrants as spreading diseases is baseless, and only fuels racial and ethnic hatred. We don’t need this.

We don’t need Robert Kennedy, Jr. who is relishes the spotlight to expound conspiracy theories, and is now part of Trump’s supporters.

I am a son of an immigrant. I am married to an immigrant. I am very tired of all the attacks on our immigrant population.

Vote for Kamala Harris.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Big Lies from Trump/Vance on Immigration

by Dave

It is anticipated that when immigration issue comes up in the debates, Donald Trump will come fully prepared with lies. He will offer them up shotgun style, which is difficult to unpack quickly.

Lie in a TV ad: “Attention seniors: Kamala Harris has promised amnesty for the 10 million illegals she allowed in as border czar, making them eligible for Social Security. Studies warn this will lead to cuts in your Social Security benefits.”

To support this claim, they offer a direct quote, which gives the impression they are talking about her proposal.

FALSE (CNN fact check) : Kamala Harris was never a “border czar.” She was never given the responsibility to secure our southern border. This responsibility went to the Secretary of Homeland Security. She was given the diplomatic responsibility of working with three Central America countries to improve their policies, so many of their citizens would not attempt to enter the US.

The 10 million illegals “she let in” is false, as explained by CNN. We have amnesty programs available to refugees from Afghanistan and Ukraine.

Harris has not made any promise to grant legal status to all of the migrants who have crossed the border during her vice presidency.

CNN: Fact check: New Trump ad uses edited quote to attack nonexistent Harris immigration proposal

More immigration lies: This non-existent link between Social Security and illegal immigration will undoubtedly be offered up as it is used often in Trump’s rallies. Trump’s shorter version is: “Your Social Security will be destroyed by the people coming in. There’s too many of them. It’s not sustainable.”

FALSE (Politifact): https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/mar/20/donald-trump/donald-trumps-false-claim-that-immigration-hurts-s/

FALSE: Joe Biden “is letting millions of people from jails, from prisons, from insane asylums, from mental institutions, drug dealers pour in.”

Trump will re-tool this one for the debate, as perhaps the Biden-Harris administration, or just “Under Kamala’s time in office, she has let in …”

Lie from J.D. Vance: “Kamala Harris wants to give $25,000 to illegal aliens to buy American homes.”

FALSE. The idea of a federal program to give assistance to first time home buyers, who are working and paying rent for the last 2 years, has been proposed. Specifics of this idea have not been given, however illegal aliens with invalid Social Security numbers can be easily screened out of the program, through a computer check. This is routinely done with employers.

See: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/22/jd-vance/jd-vances-false-claim-that-harris-wants-to-give-im/

Politifact list of Lies on Immigration

If I total up the lies on immigration (Mostly false, false and pants on fire), there are nearly 900 false statements. Trump likes to blur facts at times, saying “the government reports says 10 million illegals, could be much more than this … ” to exaggerate the immigration crisis.

I believe Trump will craft a zinger at the debate, which will identify Harris as the border czar, then add to this the 10 million aliens she left in, and connect this up to as many benefits as possible (social security, health care, housing assistance) and illegally voting in the US election. And he will describe them as rapists, drug dealers and mental patients. It will be a zinger filled with lies.

Along the way, he’ll mention that illegal immigrants can get driver licenses in Tim Walz’s state of Minnesota. I support this, as they need the driver’s license to get insurance. Uninsured motorists are a huge problem where I live (Florida).

Stay tuned,

Dave

Truth matters

by Dave

So many lies out there, it is getting difficult to list them. So I selected 4 big lies, dealing with job growth, fentanyl from Mexico, Russia invasion of Ukraine, and Harris’ role in stopping illegal immigration.

If you listen to Fox News, even for 5 minutes, in the evening hours, you will likely hear one of these lies, the most popular seems to be Harris was named border czar by Biden. Just didn’t happen.

1. TRUMP: “MASSIVE SCANDAL! The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America. New Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Administration PADDED THE NUMBERS with an extra 818,000 Jobs that DO NOT EXIST, AND NEVER DID.” (Trump, Truth Social, Aug 21, then later at an event Aug. 22 in Cochise County, Arizona).

PANTS ON FIRE (Politifact): On Aug. 21, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an annual “benchmarking” adjustment based on a sweep of state-based unemployment insurance data. This is considered more precise than the employer-based data the agency uses to assemble its closely watched monthly employment reports.

2. TRUMP: “We’re losing 300,000 people a year to fentanyl that comes through our border. We had it down to the lowest number and now it’s worse than it’s ever been.”

PANTS ON FIRE (Politifact): Trump’s figures appear to have no basis in fact. Government statistics show the number of drug overdose deaths per year is hovering around 100,000 to 110,000, with opioid-related deaths at about 81,000. Moreover, though the number of opioid deaths has risen since Trump left office, it’s incorrect to claim they were the “lowest” while he was president.

We will be following up this with a blog on the fentanyl epidemic. It is not being brought across the border by illegal immigrants, but by vehicles, legally crossing the border every day.

3. TRUMP: When ever asked about Ukraine, Trump goes into this rant about how it would never have happened if he was president. He has put the blame on Joe Biden and now on Kamala Harris.

Trump said in a speech in North Carolina: “Remember when Biden sent Kamala to Europe to stop the war in Ukraine. She met with Putin, and then three days later, he attacked. How did she do? Do you think she did a good job? She met with Putin to tell him, ‘Don’t do it.’ And three days later, he attacked; that’s when the attack started. Did you know that, General?”

FALSE (CNN Facts first): Harris has never met with Putin. In reality, she met with US allies, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the Munich Security Conference in the days before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Putin was not at the conference.

“Frankly speaking, I cannot recall a single contact between President Putin and Mrs. Harris,” a Kremlin spokesperson said last month, according to a state-owned Russian news agency.

The Biden administration was still trying to deter an invasion of Ukraine at the time of Harris’ 2022 trip to the conference in Germany, but top administration officials, including President Joe Biden himself, made clear that they believed Putin was already moving toward invading. As Harris was on her way to Germany, Biden told reporters that he thought a Russian attack “will happen in the next several days.”

CNN reported on the day the Munich conference began that a senior administration official said Harris had three key objectives: “Focus on the ‘fast-changing’ situation on the ground, maintain full alignment with partners and send a clear message to Russia that the US prefers diplomacy but is ready in case of Russian aggression.”

The Munich conference was held from February 18 to February 20, 2022; Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

4. TRUMP: President Joe Biden appointed “Kamala Harris to be his border czar to deal with illegal immigration … Harris was put in charge of stopping illegal immigration.”

MOSTLY FALSE (Politifact) : I would have considered this either false or pants on fire, because Biden did not put VP Kamala Harris in charge of stopping illegal immigration at the border. There was never a “border czar” named by the President. Border security and management is the Homeland Security secretary’s responsibility. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

In March 2021, President Joe Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with working alongside officials in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras to address the issues driving people to leave those countries and come to the United States. The Biden-Harris administration said it would focus on five key issues: economic insecurity, corruption, human rights, criminal gang violence and gender-based violence.

Links:

Job Statistics: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/23/donald-trump/donald-trumps-pants-on-fire-claim-that-biden-harri/

Fentanyl deaths: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/16/donald-trump/trump-drastically-inflates-annual-fentanyl-death-n/

2022 Meeting with Putin: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/fact-check-trump-harris-putin-meeting-ukraine/index.html

Border czar: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/jul/24/republican-national-committee-republican/border-czar-kamala-harris-assigned-to-tackle-imm

I do not want to make light of the real opioid epidemic in the US. Just the “facts” coming from Donald Trump are untrue. If you built a 2000 mile wall at the southern border, the flow of opioids would be the same.

Fentanyl, its precursors and equipment – such as pill presses – used to make the drug often times enters the U.S. through common trade pathways, such as air cargo and express courier. And, fentanyl is easy to hide, so often it is carried through at the ports of entry by cars.

The last three problems, the fentanyl pouring into the US from Mexico and China, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Guatemala, are really global problems, and they require global solution.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine aid and tougher border security

by Dave

“We still need to secure America’s borders before sending another dime overseas,” Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah wrote in a post on X.

Linking a border security bill to Ukraine aid sounded like a good selling point.  Both were popular bills among both parties in Congress. The bill also contained billions of dollars in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Israel. The Republicans insisted on one bill with both Ukraine aid and border security provisions. 

A bipartisan committee set at work, to make this happen. It took four months of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats before the final bill was ready.

All agreed that this bill would make security at the southern border much stronger. The military aid to Ukraine is absolutely essential to defending Ukraine from its invasion from Russia. The Russians are ready for a long war, and we must be part of the support for a free and independent Ukraine. As long as they are willing to fight, and lose their own citizens to defend Ukraine, we must support them.

Senator Krysten Sinema, from Arizona, summed it so well:

Finally, it seemed we had the opportunity to solve the nightmare my state has lived for over 40 years,” she said, scolding Republicans for using the border for “campaign photo ops” but rejecting the chance to enact law. “Turns out they want all talk and no action,” she said. “It turns out border security is not a risk to our national security. It’s just a talking point for the election.”

In particular, it was Donald Trump. It was not going to look good if President Biden signed into law a bill that would toughen the border security, give aid to those suffering in Gaza and help Ukraine to defend its country.

So, to keep the issue of border security alive during the next 12 months to help Trump win, Republicans are willing to let the crisis continue. The majority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, argued that Republicans tanked the bill to meet Trump’s demands for “chaos” at the border before the election.

Do not vote for Trump. Please. The Senators were elected to do what is best for the country. The Democrats voted for tougher border security, and it is the Republicans who are simply playing political games. I exclude from this group of Republicans, just 4 great Senators, James Lankford, OK, Susan Collins, MA, Lisa Markowski, AK, and Mitt Romney, UT. 

Stay tuned,

Dave

Hitting the “Nationalism” button too often

by Dave

It gets at times pretty scary.  What nationalism means, at least to Trump supporters, is we do what is in our interest.  Actually, the US foreign policy always has put the country’s interest at its top priority.  It’s really the short-sighted policy of Trump when our policy extends to telling  other countries  what to do or we will try to screw them over big time.   I have said about a 100 times, you can’t win a trade war or an arms race, because your enemies will retaliate, a guaranteed lose-lose outcome.  Trump’s nationalist policies have shut out international cooperation of other countries in helping solve problems.   China could have helped us with to denuclearize North Korea, but not any longer.  Most of the time, Trump’s threats are really hot air.   At the last minute, he’ll find a reason not to take immediate action, but still leave this lingering idea that other countries are doing really shameful things.   Sort of like, you’re bad and we’ll get even later.  Very dumb and kind of childish.    And he will always, always claim victory. Saber rattling, blaming others and just plain lying are sad ways to run foreign affairs.

Case in point is our Venezuela policy.  Obviously, Trump was quick to support opposition leader,  Juan Guaido on the wrong assumption that the military would throw their support behind him, Maduro would be history.   He attacked the “Biden-Obama” administration for not taking action against Maduro.   He did not mention that during the 11 years Hugo Chavez was in power, intent on destroying democratic and civil liberties, and establishing a corrupt system of governance,  George Bush could do little to prevent this.   Trump claimed his policies worked in Venezuela, as he pressured the Russians to pull out of Venezuela.   In March 2019, (about a million Trump tweets ago) Russia  responded saying this wasn’t true and they were going to honor their commitments made to Venezuela.    See link in below.

Venezuela is a great example of Russia, China and the US each doing what is in their national interest.  Russia and China have invested heavily in Venezuela, which underlies their support of Maduro.   The US would like to see Maduro gone and restoration of a stability in the country.  The  recent visit by UN Commissioner on Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet did not make headline news.  The Trump administration has cut off all funding for the UN Human Rights Council, calling it a leftist organization.  The ultra conservative National Security Adviser, John Bolton,  has really lead the way against using the UN to resolve crises.

“The destiny of more than 30 million Venezuelans resides in the will and the ability of its leaders to put the people’s human rights above any personal, political or ideological ambition,” Bachelet said… The UN human rights chief plans to set up an office in Venezuela to monitor the ongoing humanitarian crisis there. Michelle Bachelet said the dire situation must not be allowed to “deteriorate any further.”

There isn’t a quick solution to Venezuela.  Bachelet’s visit was definitely a step in the right direction.   It says to Maduro to stop lying to its people.

Perhaps, the next great example of misguided nationalism, comes from Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imported Mexican goods.  Of course, it never happened.  Trump’s version of events is that he pressure Mexico to take action against illegals entering into Mexico by threatening tariffs.  What really happened, is that Mexico offered nothing new, and these “concessions” were made months earlier.   See links.

There are a number of great examples how this overblown nationalism theme has failed.  I’ll leave the Iran drone episode to another blog, and move on to our constant attacks on Germany.    In 2018, Trump took aim at Germany, for their cooperative agreement with Russia to build a second Baltic sea pipeline to supply Germany with natural gas.   Germany was, of course, acting in their national interest.  Trump understood that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US to the EU could decline once the pipeline is complete.   See my blog:  https://newsandviews.net/2018/08/08/pipeline-dollars-to-russia-are-not-acceptable/

Using natural gas to generate energy is better than using coal,   The EU  needs the Russian gas, is because the existing production from UK and  Norwegian gas fields have been declining for years.  So, Germany and other EU leaders  are doing what is their national interest, and at this point, I guess, will  just ignore Trump’s comments.

It’s fine for a politician to proclaim his love for his country.  But, any real progress in international affairs must be multi-national, and with this, some of our goals would be compromised.  I guess it’s comes down to a choice of achieving some progress with existing international institutions and agreements, or striking out alone, and coming up empty handed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Russia scoffs at U.S. demand that it pull troops from Venezuela

US will stop funding UN Human Rights Council

As Trade War Spreads to Mexico,  Companies lose a safe harbor

Who won the Mexican Trade War of 2019

The real immigration problem

by Dave

Donald Trump tweeted a video showing 1,000 migrants coming through a chain link fence at the border.  They were all caught, of course.   We are catching a lot more migrants.  This makes sense, because long before Trump became president, we have spent billions making our southern border more secure.  The Customs and Border Patrol  shows a surge in the number of apprehension and inadmissibility at the SW Border.  Last month approximately 90,000  immigrants who have been apprehended.  This number is about 10,000 less than the CBP numbers which include both   apprehensions and inadmissibilities.

Looking at the video clip a second time, it looks like we could have swarmed in and arrested the first few migrants to get through the hole in the fence and the rest would have not entered the US.  At least on that day at that location.   So, a conscious decision was made to make as big arrest as possible.

I am certain walls do impede the flow of migrants.     Trump likes the word “walls” but what really works are fences.  In fact, what the video showed was that a chain link fence worked, because it took time for the migrants to cut a hole in the fence, and this delay allowed immigration enforcement officers (ICE) to get in position to round everyone up.   It certainly looks like night time video surveillance cameras also work.   The end result of spending all this money at the border,  should logically be that fewer of those intending to cross, actually succeed.  Thus the video could be used, not to show a crisis, but how we’ve succeeded in avoiding one.  I’m certain “electronic walls” (detectors, cameras, drones) work also,

The coyotes will always find ways to get people across the border.  That’s their job.  They will look for the areas with the least barriers to cross.  Obviously, the chain link fence was easy to breach, but the group was so big, it was easy for CBP to spot them.   Border security has been beefed up with about 525 more border agents.

Drugs and other  human trafficking come across the border at the ports of entry, not through holes in chain link fencing.   Both Obama and Trump administrations have been increasing funding to deal with illegal drug smuggling.   It’s a huge problem, but it is a separate issue from the migrant inflows.   Trump is always conflating and confusing these issues.

Statistics are interesting because we are presented with a partial picture and misinterpretations or distortions  are common.  The distortions are often purposeful, particularly with commentators attempting to dramatize the problems.

We know how many people,  who attempt to cross out southern border,   get caught.  This is in the Customs and Border Patrol report.  Last month, 90,000 migrants got caught.  What we want to know is how many made  it to the US.   There are no really good numbers, and trying to guess this based on those caught is wrong.   If measures to catch migrants were basically unchanged, then we could assume that the migrants making it across successfully would go up in proportion to the number who are caught.  Of course this is not true.   Even if we knew how many get into the country illegally, there are substantial numbers who get caught later, particularly if they are involved in criminal activities.   About the best we can say, is that the worst of the migrants, run a high chance of being deported later.

On any particular day or month, you just don’t know in the general population of illegal immigrants is increasing or decreasing.  A lot are here, not because they crossed in illegally, but they overstayed their visas.  A substantial number return to their country.   A general estimate of illegal immigrants in the US is 11 million and our population of illegals may be on the decline.

Now on to removal statistics.   We sent 256.000 illegal immigrants back to their country in Fiscal Year 2018 (last full  month is Sept 2018).   I believe Mexicans crossing at the southern border can be quickly deported.  Returning others to their country of origin has become the real immigration problem.  Apprehensions are nearly double from a year ago, with the real surge from Guatemala and not Mexico.  The real problem is we have run out of space to adequately house immigrants.

 

With more than 13,000 migrants in custody—an unprecedented number and more than twice what CBP considers a “crisis level”—McAleenan said, calling the situation an “unprecedented humanitarian and border security crisis all along our southwest border.” The overcrowding of CBP facilities have caused the agency to start directly releasing some migrants caught at the border, instead of transferring them to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which itself doesn’t have sufficient detention capacity to accept them.  This is the first time in more than a decade that the CBP has had to directly release its detainees and is trying to pick those with the lowest risk, McAleenan said.

Trump hates “catch and release” but he is forced into it because there’s no room at the facilities.  So, we are having a trade war over what?  Beds?  You’ve got to be kidding.   This is what Mexican officials will be telling US leaders in Washington on Wednesday  They will be saying “You invested heavily in law enforcement, and nothing else.  That was the route you took,  You were successful.  Now deal with it.”   Also, that they will retaliate in equal measure to any trade tariffs.

The threat of higher tariffs on Mexico, could not come at a worse time, as the USMCA (or NAFTA II) has not bee ratified by Mexico, Canada nor the US.   What we need most right now, is cooperation between the US, Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras on economic development and immigration policy.  The hostile and aggressive actions of Trump will only make the situation worse.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/border-patrol-apprehensions-reach-10-year-single-day-record-of-over-4100_2857594.html

Ice report (256,000 removals)  includes CBP apprehensions at the border.   Note of the violations, 57% were for “failure to appear”  which makes sense.  Who would appear at a hearing where they would be deported?  This kind of violation is for the catch and release group.   Initial book-in was 154K from ICE and 243K from CBP in FY 2018 for a total of 397,000  – incredible.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

 

 

 

 

 

The wall

by Dave

With so much out there,  I’m not too interested to add commentary,   Same goes for the government shutdown, now into the fifth week.   But, I’d like to add a few facts and one comment at the end.   A lot of  shutdowns were solved, at least temporally by the passing of “continuing resolutions” which basically says take last approved budget and just extend it out for as long as possible.    It’s a “kick the can down the road” approach.    Obama had to beg Congress for a clean CR,  as Republicans sought to defund  the ACA (aka Obamacare) through dirty CR’s. or budget proposals.

Now the wall.   The border with Mexico is 1954 miles long.    Ask any member of Congress if they support border security, and you will be sure they will all say yes.   It’s better not to use the W word (wall) or the F word (no not that F word, I mean fences),  but  use the generic “border barriers.”  There is 1.375 billion dollars for new and replacement barriers already in the approved US budget, which has only partially been spent.

The 5.7 billion dollars is slated for 234 miles of border barriers.   As CNN reported, this will cover 100 miles of new barriers, and 134 miles of improved replacements.

Now my comment.   I live in Miami, which has a huge number of illegal immigrants.   I believe most immigrants make the trip, to help their families, and are good people.   Fewer will make the trip, because the coyotes will be charging a lot more, in excess of 10,000 USD, given the added security provisions.    There are some who have returned to their country which Trump never talks about.

Stay tuned,

Dave

CNN link

Supreme Court ruling on Asylum

by Dave

Trump and the DOJ decided it could make it much harder for immigrants to apply for asylum,  by refusing to approve applications by illegal immigrants from within the country.   I’ve commented on this before.  The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals barred the Trump administration from enforcing the policy.   Trump attacked the court as biased against the Trump administration.  Those opposed to this policy seemed to be on pretty solid ground, as the applicable immigration law stated that both immigrants within the country illegally and those outside the country have the right to apply for asylum.

The government’s case seems to hing on the right to apply does not mean the government must approve applications.   But this seems absurd, as who would ever apply, knowing the application would go straight into the garbage without any consideration.  The applicant likely would face deportation.    It is also contended that the government needed a tougher policy, as there was a crisis at the border with the terribly exaggerated  caravan story.

The circuit court barred the asylum policy to be implemented and the Trump administration appealed, asking the Supreme Court to lift the bar, so they could continue the new policy as the case was being appealed.    They lost in a 5 to 4 ruling, where all liberal judges (Brennan, Ginsburg, Kagan, Sotomayor) were joined by Chief Justice Roberts in denying the government’s motion.  The case will be heard next year in the Supreme Court.  By the time this gets to the Supreme Court, the caravan invasion saga will be history, weakening the argument that Trump needs extraordinary powers to protect our country.   I predict Trump will lose on the principle that the Executive branch can’t overrule Congress.

Justice Ginsburg cast her vote with the majority, then went to the hospital to remove two cancerous growths in her lungs.  By all reports, the operation went successfully.  The recent fall in her office, resulting in fracture ribs, prove to be a very fortuitous event as follows (CNN reporting):

If the justice hadn’t fractured her ribs, Liu said, it’s possible that doctors wouldn’t have found the nodules and that they might have gotten larger. It is unclear from the court’s statement how long the nodules were there or how quickly they had grown.

The court is adjourned for the rest of the year, and I wish Justice Ginsburg a speedy recovery.   She is incredibly resilient!

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links

Justices rebuff government on asylum ban

http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/12/ginsburg-has-cancerous-growths-removed-from-lung/

 

Never let a good crisis go to waste

by Dave

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. … This crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not before.”

This quote comes from Mayor  Rahm Emmanuel.  It has been used completely out of context since he said it in an interview in 2008. What he meant was a crisis gets the public attention to a problem, and puts pressure on government to come up with solutions.

The raging forest fires in California should have been the crisis to tell us that the impacts of climate change are real and resulting in deaths around the world.    Trump’s comments on Californian’s forgot to rake their leaves was laughable.  It’s also sad, because human lives are at stake.  I am not saying that climate change caused the forest fires, but that global warming results in hotter and longer summers in California, resulting in very dry brush.  This makes many large and populated areas more vulnerable to rapidly spreading fires,

So let us add:  “Never let a crisis be pointed to you or your organization.”   With the second important proviso,   “Be creative.”    Trump meant to say that the state of California was responsible.   They didn’t maintain their forests well.   This became laughable again, when Trump insisted that Finland rakes their leaves.   The President of Finland was confused.    Learn to pivot and deflect, at the same time as appearing to answer questions.  Avoid like the plague the follow up question.  The buck stops somewhere else.

As news of Trump’s involvement in a potential Trump Tower in Moscow has leaked out,  an additional proviso comes to mind.  “If creativity fails, try lying.”     Trump claims that the Trump Tower project in Moscow was public knowledge in 2016, which I am hoping that this qualifies as the “Lie of the Year”  for Politifact annual contest.  Another tactic, is to change the subject to a completely different crisis that is not your fault.    Trump has tweeted that the FBI is wasting their time investigating the Russian interference (aka, “Witch hunt” and “hoax”)  when they should go after Hillary Clinton,  James Comey,  Loretta Lynch, Clinton Foundation,  Uranium One, etc,  or really anything connected to  Democratic campaign.      Like science fiction,  the public can never get enough of big  scandal stories, even the manufactured narratives.

So, while Emmanuel just wanted to say how a crisis helps in solving real problems,  he had not envision the new era of creating scandals out of  practically nothing, for purely political reasons.  The best defense is a good offense.   Be inventive and retaliate with another scandal, blown out of proportion.     Example: Hillary’s email scandal was real and 10X worse than the Russian collusion, which we know is a hoax.    Another example — the caravan story  and the imminent  invasion of half of Guatemala’s  criminal population,  along with Middle East terrorists.  This was only good up to the mid-term election.

Remember there is strength in numbers.  You can lie without statistics, but it just sounds more impressive with statistics.   Even false statistics.

So,  to re-iterate:

  1.  You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. … This crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not before.
  2.  Never let a crisis be pointed to you or your organization.   Learn to deflect and pivot.  The buck stops somewhere else.
  3.  Be creative.  If creativity fails, try lying.
  4.  The best defense is a good offense.  Be inventive and retaliate with another scandal, blown out of proportion.
  5.  There is strength in numbers.  You can lie without statistics, but it just sounds more impressive with statistics.  Even false ones.

Poor Mayor Emmanuel who looked on the positive side of a crisis.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_best_defense_is_a_good_offense

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel

 

 

Asylum case

by Dave

I just wanted to add that this case is far from settled.   The Judge issued a temporary restraining order, and there will be more hearings to determine if a permanent restraining order should be issued.   There is a legal question of “standing” in which the ACLU and others representing the “immigrant organization groups” must defended their right to sue  based on damages done by the Proclamation   There really has been no real application of the Proclamation, so attorneys claim a potential  damage based on a decline in activity to the non-profit organizations seeking to assist immigrants with their asylum claims.

If the Ninth Circuit Court rules that the plaintiffs lack standing, then the merits of their case can not be adjudicated, and the temporary restraining order would be lifted.

The case East Bay Sanctuary v Trump, Case 18-cv-6810.

The standing question will likely rely on the applicability of “Havens Realty Corp. v. Coleman, 455 U.S. 363 (1982).”   I will be following this case closely.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Liar in Chief

by Dave

 

I’ve discussed this before.  Donald Trump has a problem with the truth.  This is the famous line from Republican Bob Corker.  Great places for lying are campaign rallies.  Twitter works well.  He stays away from solo  press conferences – he’s holds the record for the fewest.   That’s when reporters, who really know their facts will trip him up.   Zingers don’t work at press conferences.

The rallies were for his supporters.  He knew the House may flip.  We’ll know today.     Two major theme – My administration is doing incredible great things and the Democrats are your worse enemy.  And the media – it’s also your enemy.  And actually,  ignoring a lot of very important issues, like for instance the budget and well, the world at large.    It’s all about Donald and the narrative, and largely untrue.

Trump said that they were close to reaching a deal on the China tariffs.  Stock market did nothing.  If it came from Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce, and someone I admire,  the stock markets would have exploded.  With Donald, it was a sound bite.    Xi Jinping had a  swift and harsh rebuttal.    He referred to  “beggar-thy-neighbor” which in economics,  is a policy through which one country attempts to remedy its economic problems by means that tend to worsen the economic problems of other countries.   He accused the US as play by the  “law of the jungle” obviously ignoring the World Trade Organization, which we have built up over the years to promote free trade.  In fact,  Xi Jinping has probably better standing as a global capitalist than Trump.

Campaigning and marketing are similar.  It  is simply that everything I can offer you is great and will make your life better.  Everything my competitor has is awful and will make your life horrible.  Truth is expendable.   Fear works.   Caravans of dangerous criminals approaching the border is good.   Stalemates in Congress over budgetary issues – forget,  too boring.

Donald Trump on the campaign stump: His most glaring falsehoods, is Politifact’s latest update on our liar in chief.   The folks at Politifact know their stuff, and could have written a lot more.  But by saying these are the “most glaring”  falsehoods, they can go home before the sunrises.   I guess my favorite is:

“The Democrat plan would just obliterate Medicare and terminate Medicare Advantage … seniors who have been paying for this for years (and) will not be taken care of anymore.”

which perhaps I would be worried about, but it came from our liar in chief and is false.   It is just the opposite, as the Sanders bill would greatly expand benefits.

Should the measure pass, it would offer much more than the current Medicare program, including dental, vision, hearing and long-term care. With few exceptions, there would be no premiums, no co-pays or other out-of-pocket expenses. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, however. The price tag would be in the multiple trillions of dollars.”

Some lies are so simple, such as the US Steel plants:

“US Steel is now building seven plants.”

No they’re not.  Nor six as in his prior statement.  No new plants, Mr. President!

The last of the glaring falsehoods,  #8,  is a whopper as everyone wants to help our wounded warriors.   Trump said:

 “We passed veterans’ choice, giving our veterans the right to see a private doctor, rather than waiting on line for weeks and weeks and weeks. 44 years they’ve been trying to pass that. I got it passed.”

Nope Trump  didn’t.  Obama got it passed in 2014.  the Veterans Access, Choice and Accountability Act of 2014.   It was smart to put a year on it, just so we know it wasn’t Trump’s act.  There were some changes to it during Trump’s term,  but it was Obama bill.

Politifact and Factcheck.org  come to similar conclusions – Trump will lie on almost any issue.   He gets caught and doesn’t seem to care.  I said the birth right citizenship was more about getting airtime.   Fox News actually found “legal experts”  who could explain why there were some exceptions.     Absolutely amazing.   Apparently, if say Venezuela invades Puerto Rico (for instance), then it would not be under the jurisdiction of the US.    What is a saving grace in these situation, is that all cases coming before the Supreme Court, must be associated with an actual case already heard by the lower courts, not some hypothetical case from an attorney.   So no, no Executive Order on birthright citizenship.

Marketing has little to do with the truth and everything to do with airtime.   Get on television, social media, anywhere possible.  Make it as personal as possible – like the lie on the wounded warriors.   It hits everyone who has a friend or neighbor serving in the military.  And it was a whopper of a lie that Trump has used many times.

Trump’s statements, as evaluated by Politifact,  fall in the  mostly false, false or pants on fire about 69% of the time, and true statements are 5% (about 1 in 20).    A falsehood repeated at a dozen rallies and aired over the media, still counts as one lie.   His highest percentage (33%) is False, followed by Mostly False (21%).  Of course,  these are only statements presented as facts, not opinions.

There are some really big messes and scandals looming.   If the House stays Republican, they will go after Rosenstein and Mueller.   The deep state nonsense will  re-emerge.  I believe Mueller will be announcing more criminal  indictments after the elections, and not just Russians.   Roger Stone,  adviser to the President is my guess of who is next.  There will likely be demands for Trump’s tax returns, which the Donald will not like.    Ryan Zinke,  Secretary of Interior, is being investigated for illegally profiting from policy changes, and might be the next cabinet official to leave in disgrace.  Iran and North Korea nuclear talks will go nowhere.   Iran is not caving in to US demands, but pushing back.   And China trade wars could get really nasty.  The caravan, well forget it, the troops will be returned within 3 to 4  months of inactivity.

I better stop here.  Vote today.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Donald Trump’s Record – Politifact

The most glaring falsehoods  – Politifact

 

 

 

 

Crazy s*** on immigration

by Dave

Note:  Tom Toles is one of my favorite cartoonists.  This is from the Washington Post.  Trump later said he might send up to 15,000 troops to the border, when the caravan was 900 miles away, and the participants, many mothers with their children,  looked very weary.

Immigration is a hot button issue.  There are a lot of folks, who are either unemployed or struggling with low paying jobs, who blame everything on immigrants, particularly Mexicans.  Add a bit of bigotry into this mix, and irrational fears of the caravan approaching the US borders, and Trump has created an energized  constituency that will vote straight Republican in the next election.

What Trump can not do, nor any president, is take away any of our constitutional rights, through Executive Orders.  Headlines in CNN this morning, reads “Trump claims he can defy Constitution and end birthright citizenship.”   Any executive order would typically be routed through the Department of Justice, and they would not give their blessing.  An executive order is effective until a court issues an injunction.  The injunction would happen very quickly.   The Fourteenth Amendment states: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.”  My guess is that Trump isn’t that stupid to sign such an Executive Order.

It has succeeded.   Trump wanted more media coverage.  He sure as hell got it.   It is only a desperation ploy, given early voting in the mid-term elections has started.

Next is the caravan.   I’ll go as far as saying Trump’s  characterization of the caravan as being an invading force is pure fiction.   Now, the truth is, there is widespread chaos in Honduras. According to the New York Times:

Trump has consistently conflated Central American migrants with members of gangs like MS-13, even though many Hondurans joined the caravan precisely to escape the gangs. And while migrants have a right under both international and U.S. law to seek asylum at the border, Trump has continuously voiced his opposition to their arrival. He urged Mexican authorities to prevent the caravan from reaching the United States, called for 4,000 members of the National Guard to be deployed to the border and urged U.S. lawmakers to vote for stricter immigration laws.

Immigration stories by bloggers, are  almost all false.   Unfortunately even Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security,  Kirstjen Nielsen, joined with them, spreading false stories:

There are billboards in Central America in the Northern Triangle countries advertising how to grab a kid to get into the United States illegally. Because that loophole is so big. Billboards,” Nielsen said during a July 19 interview with NBC’s Peter Alexander at the Aspen Security Forum.

Politifact labels her statement “false” as there has been no evidence of any billboards.   The US during the Obama administration, did help support billboards to help prevent illegal immigration, not promote it.   See link at the bottom.

Just as I went to post this blog, Trump double down on his false claims:

The Democrats want to invite caravan after caravan of illegal aliens into our country. And they want to sign them up for free health care, free welfare, free education, and for the right to vote.”

The statement is false in every aspect. See link below.   In fact, Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schummer, got it right responding to Donald Trump’s  actions as simply trying to distract attention from other issues, many health care.  Further Pelosi added:

Pelosi reiterated that message in another statement: “Despite Republicans’ fear-mongering, this group of families may not even make it to the U.S. border, and those migrating for economic reasons will not qualify for asylum.”

The qualifications for asylum are based on the rules of Immigration and Naturalization Services (INS).    Trump doesn’t have the authority to unilaterally change the rules.  The Department of Justice, and AG Jeff Sessions will be involved in any changes.   The courts will likely decide if it is within the executive branch’s authority to make changes.

The false claims on the caravan are too long to discuss all of them.  The caravan has existed since 2008.  The people are poor.  Many are women with children.  Many are fleeing gang violence in their countries.     George Soros, a billionaire and strong Democratic supporter, is not funding the caravan.  In fact, just about every claim against Soros, spread through social media is untrue.

The mid-term election might turn the House of Representatives to Democrat.  That’s what this heated rhetoric on immigration is about.

At this point, Trump would light a school bus on fire if he could get an extra 5 minutes of air time.  And distract the electorate from horrible policies – ranging from pulling out of the  Paris climate accord,  eliminating many rules governing clear air and water, and the attempted elimination of health care for Americans with pre-existing conditions.

Unfortunate there will be a slew of more lies as we get to Nov 6.   VOTE!

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

False statements on the caravan

Kirstjen Nielsen falsely says there are billboards in Central America on illegal immigration.

Trump says he will restrict asylum, claims troops will shoot at rock throwers

 

 

Trump: Populism, Nationalism with overriding Pro-business focus

by Dave

Populism and nationalism are not policies, but ideologies, which when rigidly applied or taken to extremes, have terrible consequences.   Populism concentrates on the problem, rather than the solution.   Nothing is every built on existing solutions.   It is more of a tear down and rebuild philosophy,  Underlying populism is a focus not on problems of society, but on government itself.   An excellent example was Trump’s campaign slogan, “Let’s drain the swamp.”   The message was that policies in the Obama administration were only what lobbyists wanted, and he was truly independent of their efforts.   The more Hillary Clinton spoke of her background in government, the more she became part of the “elite” class who were causing all the problems.

Populists exaggerate the problem and are vague on the solutions.  Trump frequently goes from an exaggeration to an outright lie.   Populists  are constantly at war with opponents who they claim will only make matters worse by continuing government policies.   Case in point was Scott Pruitt, Administrator of the EPA, taking an axe to hundreds of environmental rules, on the basis of deregulation.   He had no interest in protecting the environment.  He allowed  and in fact appointed “elitists” or fossil fuel lobbyists guide federal policies.  I guess Pruitt would defend his policies as doing what is best for the nation in helping companies explore for oil, ultimately lowering the cost of gasoline.

Nationalism says that a country does only what is in its best interest.   With Trump, it seems anytime we are part of an international organization, we have this tremendous clout to determine outcomes.   Case in point, is Trump’s verbal attack of Germany at the NATO summit.

Trump renewed the long-standing U.S. criticism of the project on Wednesday, and doubled down by tying it to the future of NATO. “Germany, as far as I’m concerned, is captive to Russia because it’s getting so much of its energy from Russia,” Trump told NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking on camera. “We have to talk about the billions and billions of dollars that’s being paid to the country we’re supposed to be protecting you against.”

Trump was referring to the Nord Stream 2.  It will take another blog to Here is the irony of nationalism – other countries can’t tell us what to do, but we can tell them how to run their countries. I will explain the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in a later blog.

The third element is a pro-business agenda.  The tax cut is a very much part of this.  It seems not much of the tax cut is being put to use to expand manufacturing.  It likely will drive up our deficits.   With trade tariffs, this will in the short term help some businesses, particularly steel and aluminium manufacturers.  It is likely to hurt US car makers, and drive up the price of cars.  In Florida,  the orange and grapefruit growers are worried about being priced out of Asian markets due to reciprocal tariffs.

So, if populism focuses only on the problem, and nationalism guides policy decisions, the end result as in the coming trade war, likely will hurt Trump’s pro-business agenda.  International cooperation will be dwindling under Trump, as he pushes America first, and above everything else.

The travel ban is an excellent example of populism and nationalism, accomplishing very little.   Certainly,  the Muslim world thinks very little of our president.

Getting tough on immigration, was rooted in populism and nationalism.   It was founded on exaggeration and frequent lies. The resulting family separation and horrific outcomes were predictable.  It was a bet that executive authority would triumph over judicial restraint.  It didn’t.

Stay tuned,

Dave