Trump’s wall

Truth matters

by Dave

So many lies out there, it is getting difficult to list them. So I selected 4 big lies, dealing with job growth, fentanyl from Mexico, Russia invasion of Ukraine, and Harris’ role in stopping illegal immigration.

If you listen to Fox News, even for 5 minutes, in the evening hours, you will likely hear one of these lies, the most popular seems to be Harris was named border czar by Biden. Just didn’t happen.

1. TRUMP: “MASSIVE SCANDAL! The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America. New Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Administration PADDED THE NUMBERS with an extra 818,000 Jobs that DO NOT EXIST, AND NEVER DID.” (Trump, Truth Social, Aug 21, then later at an event Aug. 22 in Cochise County, Arizona).

PANTS ON FIRE (Politifact): On Aug. 21, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an annual “benchmarking” adjustment based on a sweep of state-based unemployment insurance data. This is considered more precise than the employer-based data the agency uses to assemble its closely watched monthly employment reports.

2. TRUMP: “We’re losing 300,000 people a year to fentanyl that comes through our border. We had it down to the lowest number and now it’s worse than it’s ever been.”

PANTS ON FIRE (Politifact): Trump’s figures appear to have no basis in fact. Government statistics show the number of drug overdose deaths per year is hovering around 100,000 to 110,000, with opioid-related deaths at about 81,000. Moreover, though the number of opioid deaths has risen since Trump left office, it’s incorrect to claim they were the “lowest” while he was president.

We will be following up this with a blog on the fentanyl epidemic. It is not being brought across the border by illegal immigrants, but by vehicles, legally crossing the border every day.

3. TRUMP: When ever asked about Ukraine, Trump goes into this rant about how it would never have happened if he was president. He has put the blame on Joe Biden and now on Kamala Harris.

Trump said in a speech in North Carolina: “Remember when Biden sent Kamala to Europe to stop the war in Ukraine. She met with Putin, and then three days later, he attacked. How did she do? Do you think she did a good job? She met with Putin to tell him, ‘Don’t do it.’ And three days later, he attacked; that’s when the attack started. Did you know that, General?”

FALSE (CNN Facts first): Harris has never met with Putin. In reality, she met with US allies, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the Munich Security Conference in the days before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Putin was not at the conference.

“Frankly speaking, I cannot recall a single contact between President Putin and Mrs. Harris,” a Kremlin spokesperson said last month, according to a state-owned Russian news agency.

The Biden administration was still trying to deter an invasion of Ukraine at the time of Harris’ 2022 trip to the conference in Germany, but top administration officials, including President Joe Biden himself, made clear that they believed Putin was already moving toward invading. As Harris was on her way to Germany, Biden told reporters that he thought a Russian attack “will happen in the next several days.”

CNN reported on the day the Munich conference began that a senior administration official said Harris had three key objectives: “Focus on the ‘fast-changing’ situation on the ground, maintain full alignment with partners and send a clear message to Russia that the US prefers diplomacy but is ready in case of Russian aggression.”

The Munich conference was held from February 18 to February 20, 2022; Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

4. TRUMP: President Joe Biden appointed “Kamala Harris to be his border czar to deal with illegal immigration … Harris was put in charge of stopping illegal immigration.”

MOSTLY FALSE (Politifact) : I would have considered this either false or pants on fire, because Biden did not put VP Kamala Harris in charge of stopping illegal immigration at the border. There was never a “border czar” named by the President. Border security and management is the Homeland Security secretary’s responsibility. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

In March 2021, President Joe Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with working alongside officials in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras to address the issues driving people to leave those countries and come to the United States. The Biden-Harris administration said it would focus on five key issues: economic insecurity, corruption, human rights, criminal gang violence and gender-based violence.

Links:

Job Statistics: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/23/donald-trump/donald-trumps-pants-on-fire-claim-that-biden-harri/

Fentanyl deaths: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/16/donald-trump/trump-drastically-inflates-annual-fentanyl-death-n/

2022 Meeting with Putin: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/fact-check-trump-harris-putin-meeting-ukraine/index.html

Border czar: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/jul/24/republican-national-committee-republican/border-czar-kamala-harris-assigned-to-tackle-imm

I do not want to make light of the real opioid epidemic in the US. Just the “facts” coming from Donald Trump are untrue. If you built a 2000 mile wall at the southern border, the flow of opioids would be the same.

Fentanyl, its precursors and equipment – such as pill presses – used to make the drug often times enters the U.S. through common trade pathways, such as air cargo and express courier. And, fentanyl is easy to hide, so often it is carried through at the ports of entry by cars.

The last three problems, the fentanyl pouring into the US from Mexico and China, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Guatemala, are really global problems, and they require global solution.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine aid and tougher border security

by Dave

“We still need to secure America’s borders before sending another dime overseas,” Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah wrote in a post on X.

Linking a border security bill to Ukraine aid sounded like a good selling point.  Both were popular bills among both parties in Congress. The bill also contained billions of dollars in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Israel. The Republicans insisted on one bill with both Ukraine aid and border security provisions. 

A bipartisan committee set at work, to make this happen. It took four months of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats before the final bill was ready.

All agreed that this bill would make security at the southern border much stronger. The military aid to Ukraine is absolutely essential to defending Ukraine from its invasion from Russia. The Russians are ready for a long war, and we must be part of the support for a free and independent Ukraine. As long as they are willing to fight, and lose their own citizens to defend Ukraine, we must support them.

Senator Krysten Sinema, from Arizona, summed it so well:

Finally, it seemed we had the opportunity to solve the nightmare my state has lived for over 40 years,” she said, scolding Republicans for using the border for “campaign photo ops” but rejecting the chance to enact law. “Turns out they want all talk and no action,” she said. “It turns out border security is not a risk to our national security. It’s just a talking point for the election.”

In particular, it was Donald Trump. It was not going to look good if President Biden signed into law a bill that would toughen the border security, give aid to those suffering in Gaza and help Ukraine to defend its country.

So, to keep the issue of border security alive during the next 12 months to help Trump win, Republicans are willing to let the crisis continue. The majority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, argued that Republicans tanked the bill to meet Trump’s demands for “chaos” at the border before the election.

Do not vote for Trump. Please. The Senators were elected to do what is best for the country. The Democrats voted for tougher border security, and it is the Republicans who are simply playing political games. I exclude from this group of Republicans, just 4 great Senators, James Lankford, OK, Susan Collins, MA, Lisa Markowski, AK, and Mitt Romney, UT. 

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump’s Legal Problems – October 4, 2023

by Dave

Trump showed up for part of the third day of the New York State civil trial. He is now under a gag order not to make disparaging comments about court employees or their families. I predict two big former employees will be testifying next week, first Allen Weiselberg, who was Trump’s Chief Financial Officer, and Michael Cohen, who was Trump’s attorney.

Trump has blasted the whole case as unfair, to put it mildly, without a jury to evaluate all the facts. However, legal experts have laid the blame, partly on Trump’s lawyers, who did not object a non-jury trial.

See Link: “Mind-blowing”: Legal experts warn that lawyer’s incredible “screw-up” is “very ominous” for Trump

I’m not sure they would have succeeded, because they would have to argue for special circumstances exist to allow for a jury trial.

Trump’s attorney Alina Habba adds a bit of drama, but she is not winning any points with the judge:

You Tube video (4.4 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLS80Vxe59U . Fallon Cousins is not a lawyer, but a progressive commentator.

Will Trump testify? He said he wants to, but his lawyers will likely suggest to him that he has more to lose than gain. If he testifies and makes false statements, he can be charged with perjury.

In January, E. Jean Carroll defamation case II will begin. Carroll is seeking an additional 10 million dollars in her suit.

Now on to the heavy hitters- the criminal cases which are Hush Money, Georgia Conspiracy, Classified Documents and January 6 Federal Case, with prosecutors Bragg, Willis, Smith and Smith, respectively.

Hush Money Case: Trump’s lawyers filed for a motion to dismiss of all charges (summary judgement). The case is scheduled for trial in March 2024 in Manhattan. I believe the motion to dismiss will fail.

Georgia Conspiracy: Recent ruling, favorable to the prosecution, have help this case. Both Sidney Powell and Ken Cheseboro have requested a speedy trial. The judge set their trial to begin on October 23, 2023. What they did not want, was to be tried together, and they lost their bids for separate trials.

Others have tried unsuccessfully to have their cases moved to federal court. It was widely anticipated that Donald Trump would also file for removal to federal court. Trump did not file for removal and decided to remain with the others in Georgia.

Then, prosecutors have accepted a plea deal for Scott Hall, one of the defendants, in exchange for his testimony, which likely will be very damaging to Sidney Powell’s case. Additional defendants might to get similar plea deals, which allow them to avoid jail time. Legal experts consider that AG Willis just has too many defendants to try at the same time, so it is to her advantage to offer plea deals, if the defendants can help her case. So, as I count, the large group of conspirators, is now down to 16, down from 19 before.

Classified Documents: Trial to begin May 2024. Judge will have to make some contentious rulings on rules regarding the inspection of classified documents. With the back and forth of motions, this could impact the trial start date. Trump’s lawyers want this case to be held after the presidential elections, and prosecutors are insisting on the May 2024 start date. At issue are rules established in the Classified Information Procedures Act or CIPA. The judge might just push back the start date.

Federal January 6 Case: Trial date to begin March 4, 2024. Trump lost in a bid to delay until April 2026. Just in case you’ve forgotten the charges: The special counsel indictment explained Trump was charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, witness tampering, conspiracy against the rights of citizens, and obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding. This will be televised, and the timing, just before Superbowl couldn’t be worse.

After Trump attacked the courts and prosecutors, Judge Chutkan ordered a partial gag order, limiting what Trump could say about prosecutors, potential witnesses and others. Trump’s lawyers argued against this, and a hearing is set for October 16. Gag orders for both prosecutors and defendants are necessary at times, particularly so jurors and witnesses are not inadvertently intimidated by what is said in public.

That’s a wrap. I forgot Steve Bannon “Build the Wall” fraud case starts in May 28, 2024 in Manhattan, so court reporters will go back to Judge Juan Merchan courtroom, following the Hush Money case. Bannon was pardoned by Trump but they were able to file criminal charges against him under NY State law.

And of course, Rudy Giuliani’s lawsuit against Joe Biden for referring to him as a Russian pawn. Wasn’t Rudy Giuliani practically broke? Don’t think this one has legs.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Did Mexican border apprehensions soar?

by Dave

Details of Donald Trump’s decision to send National Guard to the Mexican border, have not been finalized.   He needs further consultation with the governors of the states involved.  His basis is that apprehensions are surging, as a result of increase attempts to illegal enter the US.   Note CBP data combines both apprehensions and inadmissibles together and for convenience I call them apprehensions.

I conclude the apprehensions at the Southwest border to Mexico have not suddenly soared, after an examination of the Customs and Border Patrol data.  In fact, apprehensions (approx 50,000) are very much in line with the prior five years.  What was very unusual was the pattern in FY17 as shown in the orange line.  The fiscal year 2017 goes from October 1, 2016 to Sep 30, 2017.  So, October 2016, during the Obama administration had a record number of apprehensions (67,000, I’m rounding the numbers to multiples of 1,000),  followed by a sharp drop off to a record low in April 2017.

Exactly why the  apprehensions in 2017 were abnormally low, maybe a combinations of a number of factors.  Remember,  these are immigrants who were either turned away at the border or caught attempting to get in.  The most obvious factor could be the perception of tougher enforcement at the border by President Trump.    But also remember when the economy of the US is doing well, this also tends to help Mexico and the other Latin American countries, so fewer immigrants attempt to cross the border.   The Mexican coyotes control the border crossings, with a network of associates in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras and other countries, and I believe they   are charging very high fees (> $10,000) for their services, based on conversations I have had recently.

 

It isn’t easy to interpret these statistics.   The high number of apprehensions  as occurred in June 2014 (68,000 apprehensions) might be the result of  diligent efforts on the part of Customs officials, and not an increase in  the number of illegal  immigrants.   In 3 of the 5 years, there is a significant drop off apprehensions from May to Jun (2013, 2014 and  2015), but 2017 is markedly different with an increasing trend extending from April to Dec 2017.

Bottom line is these are the statistics of people who didn’t get into the US, and we don’t know how many did.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Twitter page:  CBP Statistics