Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine war update

by Dave

There is the reality on the ground, and a lot of hot air elsewhere. It is clear that Russia intends to destroy Ukraine’s power sources. The Institute for the Study of War, provides the most detailed update of this strategy. Their update as of December 15 states:

“Russian strikes appear to be advancing the Kremlin’s stated goal of degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s power grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air defense systems and partner support for its drone interceptor development to safeguard itself against increasingly devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure.”

See link: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15-2025/

From the above link, “Russian forces launched 9,298 drones and 270 missiles in October 2025, 5,444 drones and 216 missiles in November 2025, and 2,757 drones and 91 missiles in December 2025 as of December 15.”

Ukraine has counter-attacked with some recent successes. “Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against a Russian submarine for the first time in naval history on the night of December 14 to 15.”

Now, the hot air of the “Peace Talks.” From CNN reporting, “Roughly 90% of the issues between Russia and Ukraine have been solved, one of the US officials said earlier Monday, describing the issue of territorial concessions as a remaining sticking point. The US side offered ‘thought-provoking’ ideas on how to resolve the impasse, the official said, including the development of an ‘economic free zone.'”

So, this is all posturing for political reasons. I believe Russia has little interest in partial control of Ukraine. Trump dislikes long term security alliances, which is essential for Ukrainian security.

Trump says end to Ukraine war closer than ever, but US officials caution security guarantee offers won’t last forever

The invasion in Ukraine through Belarus began on February 4, 2022. Whenever the subject of Ukraine came up during the campaign, Trump had really just two pat answers to almost any question. One we heard a thousand times, and that was “This war would never have happened if I were president.” The second was “I will end the war on day one of my presidency.” Of course, the first statement was designed to put the blame on Biden (or later Harris) for not being tough on Putin. The second one was typical election rhetoric. It was similar to Ted Cruz, which promised to fix all problems on day one.

I’m sorry to say this, but the idea that the peace agreement is 90% done is just Trump administration’s political rhetoric. Per the CNN link below, “There is still no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin actually wants a peace settlement, European and NATO officials have said. “

Ukraine presents response to US peace plan as Trump says European leaders want a meeting

One does not try to attack and destroy the energy infrastructure of a country it seeks to make peace with. Actions speak louder than words. Russia’s intent is to make Ukraine subservient part of Russia with a puppet regime in Kyiv.

Stay tuned,

Dave

No US Tomahawks from the US

by Dave

The decision not to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles weakens Ukraine’s defenses. The war has no quick end. Trump wants to appease Putin, and this is a huge error.

Trump continues a theme that peace could be just around the corner if Putin and Zelensky would just sit down and cut a deal. Putin does not want a third of Ukraine, he wants it all. He wants Zelensky and the elected government gone.

“The massive overnight strike — launched hours before the conversation between Putin and President Trump — exposes Moscow’s real attitude toward peace,” Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna said in a statement Thursday.

Olga Stefanishyna was appointed to her post as the Ukrainian ambassador to the US in August 2025. Her message is clear, Putin talks peace, but he means surrender or we will destroy you. The Tomahawks would help Ukraine strike military bases within Russia, and make the war painful to them.

Olga Stefanishyna biography

Representing the US in the latest summit with Putin, is Steven Witkoff, a real estate executive. An excerpt from the Wikipedia post follows.

Steven Witkoff

In the interview, Witkoff spoke positively of Vladimir Putin. He called Putin a “great guy” and “super smart”. Witkoff said “I liked him, I think he was honest” and “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy”.[72][73][74] According to Witkoff, Putin told him that he prayed for “his friend” Donald Trump following the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.

Putin sees Steven Witkoff as someone anxious to cut a deal, without an understanding of what is at stake beyond the popularity of Donald Trump. Giving away 1/3 of Ukraine will give Putin a perfect base to continue his war. Ukraine must be defended, and it will take US joining with our allies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Who is escalating the war in Ukraine?

by Dave

Russia claims Ukraine started the war and now is using the US and NATO to escalate or enlarge the war in Ukraine. There was definitely a “Donbas War” between Ukrainian separatists, wanting self rule for the region and Ukrainian military. But the Russian military was supporting the separatists with military troops. This is why Ukraine claims the invasion of Ukraine began in 2014 on their eastern border, and that the invasion on their northern border in February 2022 was an escalation of a war. The evidence from intelligence sources clearly backs up Ukraine’s perspective. The war is not a 3 year conflict, but an 11 year conflict.

War in Donba

The war started in 2014, with the Russians overtly supporting the separtists in eastern Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea in the south. The invasion in 2022 by Russia, made clear that their objective was control of the entire country, by military force. In February 2022, the Russians sent an armored column of tanks from Belarus to Kyiv, to seize the capitol. They failed.

Now, we are in a different phase of the war. There is a saying that “The best defense is a good offense” originated with George Washington in 1799. It is being used by the Ukraine’s military against the Russian attacks on their cities.

Russia has escalated the war, with a massive attack on Ukraine energy infrastructure. As noted in the AP press release, it is Russia’s strategy to increase the pain of war, by cutting off energy sources during the winter.

“Each year, Russia has tried to cripple the Ukrainian power grid before the bitter winter season, apparently hoping to erode public morale. Winter temperatures run from late October through March, with January and February the coldest months.”

Ukraine has retaliated with attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Russia attacks Ukraine’s power grid as Moscow worries over US Tomahawk

Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying energy war brings gas shortages and economic pain

Offense is much cheaper than defense. Drones costing $80,000 are shot down by missiles costing over a million dollars. Ukraine has no option but to defend its country and attack Russia. The Ukrainian offense must be well targeted to military and industrial facilities, because it depends on EU and US support. Russia’s allies (China, North Korea and Iran) don’t have the same humanitarian concerns. They will benefit by manufacturing and selling drones and missiles to Russia.

What Ukraine wants is Tomahawk missiles, which will extend the range of Ukraine’s attacks into Russia, and force Russia to use its military resources to defend itself. Talks between Ukraine and US are ongoing as discussed in the AP article. So this is an escalation of the war, but I see no way to stop it.

I support Trump’s initiative to get tough with all countries buying oil from Russia. But extreme tariffs on India and China, result in retaliatory tariffs, hurting the US economy. And we need India’s support.

I feel for the residents of Ukraine and Russia who will suffer the consequences of this war, and I wish this war to end. But, Ukraine must remain a free Ukraine, not threatened by Russia. For this reason, US military and humanitarian aid is vital. Ultimately, it must be part of the NATO alliance, because this is the only way to deter Putin’s expansionary policies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War: Unity among our Putin’s Partners, Latest developments

by Dave

The Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) Conference and the military parade in Beijing immediately following the conference was to promote solidarity among our adversaries. It took place for just two days, August 31 and September 1. Donald Trump with his fixation on the trade imbalance, made it completely acceptable for India’s Prime Minister Modi to stand along side Putin and Xi Jinping.

The military parade further extended the visit of world leaders to September 3. It was to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. It was much more than this, the conference was designed to push forward economic cooperations with world leaders, and demonstrate China’s military power as well.

Trump’s foreign policy hinges on a false misconception – if you push hard enough, there will come compliance. What comes from the US unilaterally pushing, is push back, and between Putin and Xi Jinping, this was painfully obvious. There are 10 members to this organization which includes Iran, which is critical to designing and manufacturing drones with increased capacity to avoid being shot down.

North Korean President Kim Jong Un arrived by train to Beijing on September 2 so he could observe the military parade, and for meetings with Xi and Putin. See ABC news link:

North Korea’s Kim crosses into China to meet Xi, Putin for Beijing military parade

Trump appeared to make a major policy change, in his rambling speech to the UN:

“President Donald Trump said Tuesday afternoon that he thinks Ukraine, with help from the European Union, could win back its territory from Russia and return the country to its original borders. Trump had previously suggested numerous times that giving up some land would be a key component of resolving Ukraine’s war with Russia.”

So, did he mean original 2022 borders, after Crimea was taken by Russia? Or the 2014 borders with Crimea part of Ukraine. He hasn’t clarified this.

Trump says he now thinks Ukraine can win back all territory taken by Russia

Now, is Trump backing up his words with actions? Or backing down? It is difficult to say.

For Ukraine to wage a completely defensive, it would mean expending much more capital than Russia. To spend one million dollars to shoot down a drone costing $80,000 dollars is not cost efficient. And, the drone that is shot down, may be a decoy, costing practically nothing. Offense is many fold cheaper than defense. So, Ukraine wants attack cruise missiles from the US, namely the Tomahawk missiles, so it can attack targets within Russia.

Russia has numerous cruise missiles, which vary in terms of range, speed, payload and other capabilities. The BrahMos cruise missile has many variations and is jointly produced by Russia and India.

The US manufactured Tomahawk missiles also has many variants. The missile under consideration for Ukraine would have a range of 1,550 miles, and cost approximately 1.3 million dollars. Russia has stated that this would represent a significant escalation of the war.

Trump has stated that before providing the Tomahawks to Ukraine, he wants to know exactly how they are to be used. Of course, Ukraine will pledge to use the missiles for industrial and military targets, but once Ukraine has the missiles, they will select the targets.

The news story cited below is from October 2. Sources suggest the US will not provide the Tomahawks because our inventory is low. Our inventory of missiles is classified information, but some estimate US to have about 4,000 Tomahawk missiles.

US Tomahawk missile shipments to Ukraine unlikely, sources say

Ukraine continues an offensive war against Russia using drones. Ukraine claims drone strikes against ammo plant, oil terminal and weapons depot using drones. Russia continues attacks with large swarms of drones, attacking Ukraine infrastructure including gas pipelines, residential homes and other buildings.

War is both ugly and sad. But, to return Ukraine to Russian control, after 34 years of independence, with so many Ukrainians having given their lives defending their sovereignty and democracy is even sadder. So, if the US can not or does not choose to arm Ukraine with cruise missiles, I am hoping the European countries will.

China’s display of unity, with the world’s bad actors, namely Russia, North Korea and Iran has to be countered with US-European unity. Regaining India as an ally will require great diplomatic skill, and compromise. Forming alliances and long-term commitment is not what Trump does easily. But this is exactly the counter punch to the spectacle in China in September.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Cuban and North Korean Mercenary forces

by Dave

Russia is paying citizens of North Korea and Cuba to fight, and die on the battlefields of Ukraine. Why? Because the desperate economic conditions in these countries means the $2000 per month salary looks good. As explained in the link, many of them are killed within five months, and there are grieving families in Russia when they are gone. Apparently, Russia only says they are missing, not dead.

Andriy Yusov is a Ukrainian spokeperson for the Ukrainian intelligence. He shared information with US Representatives at a briefing on the use of mercenaries in Ukraine.

“Taking into account the totalitarian nature of Cuban regimes, such recruitment could not have taken part without the blessing of the Cuban regime,” Yusov said. He also added many recruits are victims of fraud, with some being held even after their contracts expire.

Ukraine estimates that 20,000 foreign mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine. See September 19 link: Cuba sends thousands of its people to fight for Russia in war with Ukraine, say Ukrainian officials

But, estimates vary on how many Cubans and North Koreans are currently fighting in Ukraine. From the link above, Ukrainian intelligences estimates more than 1,000 Cubans mercenaries have signed contracts to fight in Ukraine. North Korea initially supplied 10,000 troops in fall of 2024, of which it is believed that 4,000 have died in combat. The meeting between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kim Jong-un in North Korea on July 6, 2025 was pivotal, as a few day later North Korea pledged to triple the number of troops, to 25,000 to 30,000. It is unknown how many North Koreans Kim Jong-un will actually send to Ukraine. See link below:

The Second North Korean Wave in Ukraine: What Next as Pyongyang’s Troops Arrive on Russia’s Front Lines?

The drone and missile aerial war continues with one of the largest “swarm” attacks ever. See link below:

Russia attacks Ukraine with one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, killing four and injuring dozens

I will end on a positive note, and that is the Moldova elections went in favor of the pro-EU party despite Russia’s attempt to sway the population. See link:

Moldova’s ruling pro-EU party wins election marred by claims of Russian meddling

This is not a cold war, but a hot one. Had pro-Russian party won the elections, Russia would have a strong base, SW of Ukraine, to continue its invasion of Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Our focus on Ukraine

by Dave

We will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine. I know there are many news stories out there. Last week Charlie Kirk, today it is the shooting at the Dallas ICE facility plus the indictment of James Comey.

Absolutely, the shootings are tragic events, and nothing is ever gained. Human life is precious. I feel for the survivors, the widows and children. I have faith that the police will find the shooter who killed an immigrant and wounded others at the Dallas facility.

Tragic events are happening in Gaza now, and it is extremely sad. A war that targets the general population is called genocide and this is an international crime. I don’t see how this advances peace.

James Comey will have his day in court. The Justice Department felt there was sufficient evidence to charge James Comey. The Grand Jury agreed with indicting him on two counts. It will take months to resolve. It is a felony crime to give false testimony to Congress. He is innocent of all charges until proved guilty in a court of law. Everyone, including Donald Trump wants to rush to judgement and have him tried in the media.

So, I will be posting more on the Ukraine war, and avoid the more popular “news de jour” with contrasting points of views from Fox, MSNBC, CNN and of course, the usual noise (to put it mildly) from social media.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Russia’s Math and Politics in Winning the War

by Dave

Russia wants to intensify their attack, after nearly a million Russians have been killed, captured or injured. They want to scale up, but it is increasingly clear this is a war on a budget. But the goal is the same, total control of Ukraine.

First the Math. Offense is much cheaper than defense. Shooting down a drone that costs $80,000 with a missile that costs 1 to 2 million dollars, is not economical. In fact, the defenders of a country will soon go broke this way. It is why Ukraine is increasingly going on the offense – and Russia is well aware of this.

In the prior posting, I discussed the use of massive swarms of missiles and drones. Missiles are very expensive compared to drones, so they are a small but lethal part of the attack. Russia is deploying hypersonic ballistic missiles, “normal” ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles in their attack in Ukraine.

Cruise missiles stay low to the ground to avoid detection. They use a combination of different navigation systems, including terrain contour matching (using onboard imaging with stored maps) to make course corrections. They are accurate to 5 to 7 meters of their target.

Hypersonic ballistic missiles are the most expensive, costing between 10 to 15 million dollars. The next generation of hypersonic missiles are really scary things, combining high speed and maneuverability to avoid being shot down. So, the super expensive Patriot missile systems, which Ukraine has only 6 to 8 launchers and been begging for more, may be no match if the aerial assault uses hypersonic missiles.

Ballistic missiles that can destroy Patriot and HIMAR (highly mobile missile systems) systems are highly cost effective. Patriot systems cost 1.1 billion dollars, compared to up to 15 million dollars for the missile.

These missiles are very scary and the long range implications are real. They can use conventional and nuclear warheads. They are being produced in North Korea, Russia and the China. Also, the US is producing them. See link below:

Explainer: Why is North Korea testing hypersonic missiles and how do they work?

Less expensive non-hypersonic cruise and ballistic missiles are being mass produced in Russia.

Swamped? The Math of Ukraine’s Missile Crisis

“An examination of the output numbers for ballistic and other missiles, and drones, show sharply rising output at low cost, while Western interceptors are produced far more slowly and at much greater expense” per the above above article.

Also in the article: “Modified Iskander variants deploy radar decoys, irregular flight paths, and terminal-phase maneuvers designed to degrade Patriot effectiveness. Ukrainian data from April and May 2025 confirms declining intercept rates during saturation strikes. Interceptor overuse combined with degraded hit probability accelerates depletion.”

Drones have been improving in speed, with the Geran-3 capable of speeds up to 250 mph. At present, swarms of up to 800 drones are launched together, and some experts suggest that they may increase to as many as 2,000 drones launched together.

Some of the drones may be decoy drones. See Google AI summary below:

In the Ukraine War, Russia uses drone decoys, such as plywood or foam imitations of Shahed drones, to overwhelm and deplete Ukraine’s air defense systems. These decoys are launched in large numbers alongside actual attack drones and missiles, creating mass barrages intended to force Ukrainian forces to waste expensive interceptor missiles on cheap, non-lethal targets. The strategy aims to degrade Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, allowing more of Russia’s actual weapons to reach their intended targets.

The decoys can help locate the bases for the interceptor missiles and target them early in the attack. See BBC article on decoys:

Link: BBC article on Drones

Link: The Phony War: Ukraine and Russia’s Decoy Drones

Russia is increasingly turning to bright young teenagers, to design advanced drones.

Link: Russia using children to design and test its military drones, investigation finds

It is all about gaining air superiority in advance of sending in ground troops. Putin will increasingly rely on North Korean troops in the ground offensive.

Now the politics and economics. This is a huge business. Developing these weapon systems, requires expertise and committed funding for research. Russia is forging alliances with Iran, North Korea and China to extend its military power. North Korea is very eager to be the supplier of advanced weapon systems and the military troops to fight Russia’s war. Ukraine is the training ground for young Koreans to become combat hardened. As many as 40% of the troops North Korea sends to Ukraine will not be returning. It is a very cruel business.

The idea that the US could use sanctions as a means of restraining Putin, and making the war too costly to pursue, is failing. It began with Biden and continued with Trump.

Trump has tried to convince India and Brazil to stop importing oil (India) and petroleum products (Brazil). When this failed, he imposed punitive tariffs, which the courts deemed beyond his authority. It likely will be decided by the Supreme Court.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War: Russia’s Deadly Drone Attacks

by Dave

Russia made drone, courtesy of Zala Aero Group.

Summary first: War does not take a holiday. The war is not going well for Ukraine. Drones can attack anywhere in Ukraine, and defending against night time attacks of massive swarms of Russian made drones (800 or more drones and decoys in a single attack) is next to impossible.

Details: Drones attacks are nothing new in the Ukraine war. Russia only deployed a few drones when they first attacked Ukraine. Russia thought in 2022 the invasion would be over quickly, with the seizure of Kiev. Now, the Kamikaze attack drones are being mass produced by Russia and others imported from Iran, in a new campaign to sow fear of survival into the Ukrainian populace.

The strikes against Ukraine reached a record of over 800 strikes in a single day in September. It is clear that after May, 2025, the massive record-breaking swarms of drones became the new strategy. The orange bars are missile attacks, and records were set March and April. Missiles have a large payload, and are the weapon of choice for destroying large targets such as military or infrastructure installations such as oil refineries.

The above image comes from the Al Jazeera website. See link: Drone and missile attacks. Above the image are the various “peace talks” which show as the US and Russia talked peace, Russia continued to intensify the war.

The graph really highlights a shift from mid-May until now. Russia is advancing on the ground and in the air. It is no longer dependent on Iran to supply “Shaheb” style drones. It has built its own plants, and it mass producing both high speed drones and decoys. See links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones

Russia continues to depend on North Korea, to send troops to Ukraine. See link:

The Second North Korean Wave in Ukraine: What Next as Pyongyang’s Troops Arrive on Russia’s Front Lines?

On July 6, 2025, there was a key meeting between Russian and North Korean leaders. A few days prior, North Korea pledge to send 25,000 to 30,000 troops to the front-lines of combat in Ukraine.

With drones and mercenary forces, Putin can escalate the war, cause more destruction to Ukraine, and avoid increasing casualties to the Russian forces. The Modern War Institute estimates nearly one million Russians have been injured, killed or captured, so far in the war.

I believe many Russians are growing weary of this war. It doesn’t seem to help.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump’s threat of tough sanctions on Russian allies

by Dave

Trump has given Russia 50 days to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or else he will go ahead with severe sanctions to make sure Russia can not profit from sale of their oil. To do so, he must sanction countries that are buying Russian oil. Russia profits from selling fossil fuels, namely oil, natural gas, coal, LNG (liquified natural gas), and petroleum products. In total, the sale of these fuels result in sales of 687 million dollars per day, according to the CREA. On their website, sales are reported in Euros, and I have converted them to dollars.

The specific large buyers of oil and gas are China, India and Turkiye. So, why not just tell these countries to stop buying fossil fuels from Russia until Putin stops the war?

I’ll start with China, which many economists already knew that tariffs would likely hurt the US economy more than China’s. President Xi Jingping did not open up discussions with the US immediately as Trump threatened China. Instead, he flew to Vietnam and other trading partners in a move to show Trump, Chinese products don’t have to be sold in the US. See link below:

Trump losing leverage as China trade war fires duds

Next up is India which is close to a trade deal. Not something Trump will want to upset. India greatly increased its imports of oil from Russia after 2022, because it could buy the oil at discounted prices. India recognized Ukraine in 1991, yet does not support international sanctions against Russia.

Finally Turkiye (note the correct spelling) which is part of NATO, and has provided military equipment to Ukraine. US needs. But, they will continue to buy Russian oil. There has been many issues in the past including Turkiye’s purchase of military defense weapons, similar to Patriot missiles, from Russia. I think Trump will see Turkiye as an ally in the Ukraine war, and will not dare sanction them for their purchase of Russian oil.

It’s interesting, because Trump has given Russia 50 days to find peace in Ukraine, or else he will sanction the buyers of fossil fuels. China and India are the largest buyers with each country importing about 4.1 billion dollars of oil per month. These are secondary sanctions to be added to the tariffs.

CREA Analysis

So, who else is sanctionable? Hungary and Slovenia import Russian oil, each around 200 million per month. Relative to China, India and Turkiye, these are not sizeable purchases. If Trump goes beyond oil, there are other fossil fuels, like LNG, and petroleum products. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the EU and Brazil could join the list of sanctionable countries.

Sanctioning Brazil will not happen. Remember Trump has already threatened Brazil with a 50% tariff on all goods, because they are putting ex-president Jair Bolsonaro on trial. President Lula has responded, stating that Brazil would retaliate with 50% tariffs. So, if tariffs go to 150% because of their purchase of petroleum products, Brazil would retaliate with 150% tariffs. And both countries would be losers, but the US would be the bigger loser, because we have a trade surplus with Brazil.

Using sanctions, tariffs or embargos as a means of forcing countries to change policy can hurt the US more than the targeted country.

At the very end of the CREA analysis, they note three ways to Ukrainian allies can “tighten the screws” on Russia’s oil exports. I think it is a very thoughtful analysis, as none of these measures have any means of immediate retaliation, and they would be directed at Russia rather than China, India and Turkiye.

  1. Lower the Price Cap established by the EU sanctions to $30/bbl.
  2. Restrict the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers & plug the refining loophole. This one gets complicated so it’s best to defer to the CREA analysis.
  3. Stronger enforcement and monitoring

The tanker shipments of crude can be monitored. Trump likes actions he can take unilaterally, but they generally are not successful. Biden thought he could cripple Putin with severe sanctions, at the onset of the war in Feb 2022. It didn’t work.

Stay tuned,

Dave

US reverses course on Ukraine

by Dave

Trump and Putin talked, and then hours later, Russia launched its largest attack on Kyiv, with a swarm estimated at 730 drones and missiles. Trump realized that his efforts to broker a cease fire were absolutely gone.

Trump has said he will not be blocking the military aid approved by the Biden administration in a US stockpile drawdown.

Trump’s new Ukraine Aid Plan

Trump proposed NATO buy the US military equipment for Ukraine. NATO seems to support the proposal. He is also proposing very high tariffs on country’s buying Russian oil. It seems to be all in the right direction.

Putin appears to be undeterred. Recent military actions taken by both sides are listed in the Al-Jazeera post. Russia appears to be occupying more territory.

I am most worried about China, Iran and North Korea’s involvement in the war. North Korea is sending fresh troops to Ukraine, to join Putin’s mercenary force while the other countries produce military equipment. It is turning, more and more, into a proxy war.

But, finally the US looks like it’s fighting on the right side.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,237

Excellent Ukraine War Update from CNN

by Dave

Given the horrific news of the Texas flood, it is understandable that CNN and others don’t make Putin’s war in Ukraine headline news. This CNN news story, posted July 4, was accurate and well done.

CNN, Russia welcomes Trump’s cut to Ukraine’s military aid but it could be deadly for Kyiv

This article helps fill in more details and confirms other details in my post. Russia’s ballistic missile attacks have done massive damage in Ukraine. And the shortage of these missiles in Ukraine makes retaliation impossible. Russia fired as many as 80 ballistic missiles in June. The US cutoff of these missiles means more Ukrainians will die. Their homes and the cities where they live will be reduced to rubble. They will be forced to flee.

The June 2025 escalation of the war is confirmed in the CNN post. On June 4, Trump cut off supplying a small but critical component of Ukraine’s defenses, called a “proximity fuze.” This device triggers an anti-drone drone to explode when it is close to its target, making it much more effective. Prior to that, Trump stated on May 17, 2025, that Ukraine was just “pissing away” billions of dollars in aid in an interview with Fox News.

CNN confirmed that there’s is no quick solution to the US cut off of military equipment by Trump. Production of Patriot systems requires time. CNN also confirmed that halting deliveries of the Patriot missiles because they are desparately needed elsewhere, is according to experts, not true.

I feel sorry for the lives lost and homes destroyed in Texas. The US must help the victims of the flood recover and rebuild. Ukraine faces a Texas style disaster on a daily basis. Putin’s objective is not to control a small piece of Ukraine, but the entire country. They deserve our help.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War News

by Dave

War doesn’t take a holiday. The famous “peace talks” started in Istanbul were a joke. Russia participated only because he wanted to keep Trump happy, with the idea that Ukraine did not deserve our support. In May, Putin increased significantly the attacks from around 100-150 attacks per day, to more than 400 drone and missile attacks. On July 4, the highest number of attacks occurred since the war began in February 2022 with 550 missile and drone attacks, hours after Putin and Trump talked.

The two best sources of information are the Guardian and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Institute is a non-profit organization, does a much better job than anyone else in following the war. See links below:

Institute for the Study of War – Latest Assessment

Guardian, July 4, Ukraine war briefing: Power to Zaporizhzhia plant cut off as UN watchdog warns nuclear safety ‘extremely precarious’

ISW reports in the July 4 attack, 208 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Excellent news. Ukraine also uses interceptor drones to stop attacks. When there are swarms of over 500 drones coming at once, particularly the Shahad high velocity drones, intercepting them can be difficult. See link at end from Kyiv Independent. Patriot missiles would be the defense weapon of choice, but they are by far the most expensive and in very short supply – thank you Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump.

Iran and China support Putin because their industries benefit. See ISW link. “Ukrainian investigators discovered components manufactured at the Chinese Suzhou Ecod Precision Manufacturing Company in Russian Geran-type drones (Russian analogue of the Iranian Shahed drone) recovered in Kyiv City.”

US is deliberately aiding Putin’s offense by halting the delivery of Patriot missile systems already bought by the US. Germany is exploring the option of buying the Patriots from the US and giving them to Ukraine (see link above). I don’t think it will go far, because it clashes with Hegseth false claim that the Patriots are needed for the US security.

Hegseth will eventually have to answer to Congress of why he is making the destruction of Kyiv so much easier for Putin.

Putin’s goal is occupation of all of Ukraine. Putin is setting up for a multi-prong attack from the south, east and north (through Belarus) with an infantry heavily supported by North Korea. Russia started the war through an attack in Belarus and their recent buildup now is all part of Putin’s occupation of Ukraine. See link below:

Kyiv Independent, April 30, Zelensky warns Russia is ‘preparing something’ in Belarus under guise of military drills

Putin was quoted as saying, “We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.” An apt response would be: “Be careful where you step, it could be your last one.”

The US should be 100% behind Ukraine as they resist the attacks from Russia. So far, Hegseth has reversed course, and denied the delivery of urgently needed defense equipment.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Putting a Smile on Putin’s Face

by Dave

The US is halting the shipment of defensive Patriot missiles to Ukraine. It is a clear sign that the US is letting Russia win this war. Ukraine desperately needs these missiles to defend their cities. Ukraine desparately needs these missiles to defend its cities.

The Patriot missiles were approved by Congress as part of a 66 billion dollar aid agreement for Ukraine under President Biden. As reported in the news, some Patriot missiles were already shipped to Ukraine, but Hegseth froze the transfer of custody from the US to Ukraine.

War is brutal. They count fatalities, but many die because medical facilities have been bombed and their wounds can’t be treated. Putin has indiscriminately bombed apartment buildings, hospitals, schools and power stations, to force Ukrainians to surrender.

Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, supported this decision, by stating that the stockpiles of Patriot missile systems had become very low in the US. This was immediately contradicted by an analysis conducted by the military, that our stockpile of Patriot missiles were no lower than in the past.

NBC July 4, 2025, Hegseth halted weapons for Ukraine despite military analysis that the aid wouldn’t jeopardize U.S. readiness

Pete Hegseth doesn’t mind lying, because this is exactly what his boss does. In fact, it is what Trump expects from his Cabinet secretaries. Put an MAGA cap on, smile to the camera, and talk about supporting America’s readiness and greatness are all part of the game.

The above link states that the announcement blindsided the State Department, European leaders, members of Congress and Ukraine.

We do not know what Putin and Trump discussed yesterday, but the results are pretty evident.

CNN, July 4, 7:58 am, Russia launches record number of drones at Ukraine after latest Trump-Putin phone call

Last night’s attack was done with 538 drones and 11 missiles. The Kinzhal missiles were used in these attacks, which only a Patriot missile could shoot down. Well, if they are lucky. This attack occurred within hours of the Trump-Putin conversation.

Trump doesn’t care that Hegseth is lying. He doesn’t care if CNN and New York Times journalists, are on the spot and can show the damage to residential areas. Fox News will report on their website, stories about illegal immigration or Iran, not last night’s brutal attack on Kyiv and other major cities.

Trump is all about appearances and how this plays out in the media. What I am certain Putin let Trump know, is that they are the rightful owners of Ukraine and that Ukraine will be better off with a change in management after Zelensky is gone. What Putin wanted from Trump, is simply let Russia finish off Ukraine without any additional sanctions. Trump is on a rampage to punish all our trading partners with sanctions which are essentially embargos but it’s hands off on Russia.

Putin must be very happy. He can attack Ukraine with Impunity. It’s reported that North Korea is sending 30,000 troops to support Russia. Of course they are getting paid. Iran is supplying drones, and Iran must be very happy to sell them to Russia. China is also aiding Russia with military equipment.

His [Putin} eye still very much on the prize, Putin said last week: “We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.”

June 30, 2025, Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms – but Kyiv won’t be celebrating.

You need to attack with missiles to destroy and occupy a country. Blowing up a Patriot missile systems (missiles, radar and launcher) lets Russia achieve complete air superiority. Putin’s strategy is very simple, drain Ukraine’s stockpile of their Patriot missiles, achieve complete air superiority and roll into Kyiv with tanks.

There will be celebrations in Washington on this Fourth of July holiday. The media will cover the signing of the Big Beautiful/Ugly Bill. But there will be no celebration in Ukraine.

Thank Trump for making America weaker than ever. Trump is America’s gift to Putin.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia, Patriot Missiles

There were numerous other stories, which give a real good idea of Trump’s thinking. Steve Bannon was fired by Trump in this first term, but was recently spotted entering the White House. He said what Trump needed to do is “flood the zone” as explained below:

Newsweek: Steve Bannon’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Explained Amid Trump Policy Blitz

Republicans have always been very strong on stopping Russian expansion. Marco Rubio as Florida’s senator would make passionate speeches about the inhumanity and loss of democracy under the autocratic regimes of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. These countries, along with North Korea, China and Iran are the allies of Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. Will our Secretary of State be silenced by Trump?

Support Ukrainians and an Update on the War

by Dave

Top Charities to Support Ukraine

Unicef USA – I don’t know why they add USA, because Unicef is international, and they are on the ground in Ukraine, supplying food, medicine and education for families that have fled their homes in eastern Ukraine.

International Rescue Committee – By far, my favorite, because refugees are caught in conflicts they did not create, and have had their homes and communities destroyed.

Razom for Ukraine – Another excellent charity, with all contributions going to the survival of Ukraine and its people.

There are many others. Charity Navigator lists 24 charities working to help the victims of war.

Update

Wars don’t shut down for holidays. I believe Russia is playing the long game, a 3 year war, where they control Kyiv and most of the country by the end of Trump’s term. They are counting on the purely political instincts of Trump to abandon his European allies, and basically ignore the huge humanitarian crisis caused by Putin, as he ravages Ukraine with missiles, bombs and infantry.

Drones, bought from Iran, are supplying Russia with the weapon of choice for the front line attack. But the war must be won on the ground, and Russia has no problem using troops from North Korea to fight their war.

Putin, I am certain, has Trump pretty much figured out. Trump liked playing the peacemaker, or really the ultimate deal maker, giving Russia the occupied territory including Crimea plus territory they had yet to occupy (around 20% of Ukraine) in exchange for a ceasefire. I think his message to Zelensky, is it’s a case of “Deal or No Deal” as if this was a game show. Putin doesn’t want 20% if he can get 100%.

Putin will bomb hospitals, apartments, schools and other civilian targets. Power stations will be bombed, because Putin doesn’t want Ukrainians to be able to have electricity for cooking, heat and light.

Trump is having trouble right now with his fragile majority in the Senate, with the budget bill, so military funding for Ukraine is, I guess, a low priority. He stated that the war between Russia and Ukraine is like two boys fighting, and they’ll just have to settle it themselves. Wrong in every way! Russia began an unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine, and military experts did not give Ukraine any hope of survival given Russia’s overwhelmingly superior army and air force. Ukraine deserves our support.

I suggest making a 3 year pledge to support Ukraine. Ukraine has to make it to the end of Trump’s term, then real assistance can come from Democrats, who understand the importance of keeping Ukraine out of Putin’s hand. He will not stop at Ukraine. There are military bases in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Mexico is a central hub for the Russian intelligence. (See link below). Despots like despots. El Salvador is strengthening its economic ties with Russia, and will turn a blind eye to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Brazil, I fear, is acting similarly and why not, they are really encouraged by Trump’s isolationist policies. The message to them, is do only what is in the short-term national interest of your country.

I have posted about Putin’s secret war inside Africa. Russia will continue to form alliances with corrupt leaders of Africa, who need protection from their own people.

Please don’t let Putin win. Contribute to the Ukrainian charities today.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Russia’s Changing Latin America Strategy

Trump’s isolation policies are a blessing to Putin’s ambitions.

Russia’s growing influence in Africa

Following the Ukraine War, Day by Day

by Dave

I began this blog to add commentary to stories that I considered needed more attention. So, unlike many websites, I have not commented on many well covered and/or politically charged issues of our time. The media will always jump at a story that includes violence and is local.

Case in point is the fatal shooting of Minnesota’s Representative Melissa Hoffman and attempted assassination of John and Yvette Hoffman. I am glad the latter are recovering fine. It is tragic, but there isn’t much I can add to the story. It backs up the old adage, “if it bleeds, it leads.”

A president has enormous powers when it comes to foreign affairs. Trump has repeated many times, that the Ukraine war should never had happened, and if he was president at the time, instead of Biden, it would not have happened. This is pure bunk, as the aggressive military expansionary policies of Putin, were well known. The pre-text to the February 2022 attack was the insurrection in the Donbas region, supported by Russia.

Military expert General Jack Keane stated known intelligence suggested Putin anticipated his invasion of Ukraine would happen swiftly and with little resistance. Instead, Putin encountered a resolute Ukrainian military, backed by a strengthened NATO alliance.

Putin would prefer to buy out a country’s leader than invade it. This ultimately how Chechnya became subservient to Russia. Putin thought he could overtake Kyiv through an assault with tanks through Belarus in February 2022.

The Biden administration was clear eyed about Putin’s intention. It is to topple the government and control the country. For Biden, it was all about defending Ukraine through punitive sanctions and military coordination with the European countries.

Trump campaigned on this idea of being this great negotiator and bring Ukraine and Russia to some agreement. The talks in Istanbul are hopeless, as Russia only wanted to expand the territory it occupied and conducted a massive attack during negotiations. On June 14, Putin called Trump to wish him a well on his birthday, according to reports. Apparently, he told Trump that talks on a negotiated settlement should begin after the prisoner exchanges were complete. All Putin was trying to do, is keep the US to cut military aid to Ukraine, on the idea this would be harmful to possible settlements.

The summer offensive by Russia is likely to be brutal. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth has likely given Russia assistance, by diverting the “proximity fuzes” needed to shoot down Russia drones to the US military stationed in the Middle East. This was equipment was part of a 61 billion dollar package approved by Congress for Ukrainian defense.

Further, Secretary Hegseth turned over leadership to NATO’s Contact Group Ukraine Defense Group to Germany and the UK and skipped the June 3 meeting at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels. Hegseth is expected to speak at the June 24 to 25 NATO Summit, and Russia will be listening very closely, to tell whether his statements are strengthening or weakening the military support needed to defend Ukraine.

If he gives similar statements as in February, Russia will know that Trump will, once again, use the idea of a possible negotiated settlement, to deny Ukraine the desperately needed military and humanitarian assistance. I call it a Trump fantasy, good for his supporters, and awful for Ukraine and European defense.

Stay tuned,

Dave