Ukraine and Russia

Russia attacks deeper into Ukraine

by Dave

Every day, Russia is in control of key territory, and ultimately this is what Putin wants. It a matter of square kilometers of territory under control, rather than casualties on the ground or successful assaults using missiles and drones, that demonstrates Russia’s success.

The initial occupation took place in the Donetsk region. Russia solidly controls Crimea as well. They have now extended their reach further to central Ukraine by occupying parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region, or Dnipro for short. So, their strategy is fairly easy to see on a map, taking Ukraine, bit by bit, with Sumy and Kharkiv in the north, Dnipro in the central region and Odesa in the south.

Ukraine military denies the Russian advance into Dnipro, so nothing is known for certain. See link:

Putin’s negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, in the so-called “Peace Memorandum” is asking for Ukraine to cede more territory than the 20% controlled by Russia and a guarantee from the US that Ukraine will never join NATO. It demands that Ukraine recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as well as Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts — none of which are fully under Moscow’s control.

I would suggest Putin’s negotiator told Zelensky, that he knew it would be extreme difficult to accept the terms, but this might be his only option, since the goal is total occupation.

Russia admitted its ‘peace memorandum’ is an ultimatum Kyiv won’t accept, Zelensky says

The talks are now focus on prisoner exchanges, return of Ukrainian children and remains of dead soldiers rather than a solution to the conflict.

Russia is getting support for their invasion from Iran, which is selling them drones. North Korea has sent troops to help Russia win. China is also supplying military equipment.

Interestingly, the Israel-Iran conflict may mean fewer drones being sent to Russia.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

The Institute of the Study of War, continues to be the best source of detailed information.

See latest update:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2025

Russia intensifies war and US remains silent

by Dave

The massive bombing attacks occurred in Kyiv and the port city of Odessa using missiles and drones. They destroyed mainly civilian targets. The drones can not carry much payload, so the death toll was low. But, they carry a message to all Ukrainians, to leave because we are coming with tanks.

CNN: Massive Russian drone attack slams Kyiv and hits maternity hospital in Odesa, Ukrainian officials say

Ukrainian officials claim a maternity hospital was hit by missiles and drones. It is too soon to know the full extent of damage. The particular drone used by the Russians is the Iranian Shahed 136. It was a massive attack with 315 drones. Pictures of injured Ukrainians from broken glass from a maternity ward were really terrible.

Link: Wikipedia HESA Shahed 136 drone

So both Iran and Russia must be overjoyed to know that Secretary Hegseth will not deliver to Ukraine the essential component of anti-drone defense, namely the proximity fuzes so they can defend themselves.

Russia must be very happy with Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth as he failed to attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on June 5-6 at the NATO headquarters in Brussels. His opening remarks on February 12, 2025 were pretty bad, because he said laid fault with Ukraine for not conceding occupied territory in advance of “Peace Talks” which had nothing to do with peace.

Link: Hegseth to skip Ukraine meeting at NATO headquarters

Instead, Matt Whitaker, Ambassador to NATO went in his place. He has been on the job exactly two months and zero experience in the military. See video clip at end, of why Matt Whitaker should never been approved as Ambassador to NATO. See link at end of this post.

I applaud the Secretary General Mark Rutte, as he stated shorty after the meeting, “Wishful thinking will not keep us safe. We can not dream away the danger. Hope is not a strategy. So NATO has to become a stronger, fairer and more lethal alliance.” His comments on increased spending should have been music to Donald Trump, as he stated, “America has carried too much of the burden for too long.”

It is clear, that Ukraine is struggling to defend itself. Putin can talk peace, but it is only to keep Trump happy, which he has managed to do quite well. He wants control of Ukraine. The next important date will be June 24-25, 2025 for the NATO Summit. I expect if Secretary Hegseth shows up, it will only be to praise Trump and congratulate certain nations on paying their fair share of NATO expenses.

The war could end tomorrow, if Russia simply respects the agreed upon borders of Ukraine. Ukraine’s only chance for long term survival is membership within NATO. It can only happen after the war is over.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Video clip by Rachel Maddow on Matt Whitaker, our Ambassador to NATO. Apparently, singing high praises to Trump is enough.

Opening Comments at February 12, NATO Group by Peter Hegseth

Excerpt for a Feb 13, 2025 article by Ivana Strader, Foundations for the Defense of Democracies, Ivana Strader

The original Minsk agreements were failures precisely because they provided no real backing for Ukraine, only a phony ceasefire and endless talks while Russia continued to bolster rebels in the Donbass. The Trump administration is right that the new negotiations must not become a third Minsk, but it is wrong to take Ukrainian Nato membership off the table. No matter what Putin’s propaganda may say, it is clear that he fears the Western alliance. In its imperial quest to rebuild the Soviet “sphere of influence” Russia has attacked Moldova, Georgia, and now Ukraine, all countries lacking the protection of Nato membership. Clearly, Nato membership is a powerful deterrent; it is also one which Russia has no grounds to object to. After all, the United States makes no demands as to the membership of Russia’s Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The Trump administration risks disarming itself of a key source of leverage before negotiations even begin.

Full article

You may have to sign up for a free 7 day subscription to read this article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136

Russia Retaliates and US fails to adjust policy

by Dave

I wanted Trump to fully condemn the retaliation attack on Ukraine, and tell Russia, to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine. Call Putin out once, as leading a brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. His lack of response shows weakness.

CNN reports: “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had used more than 400 drones and 40 missiles in the overnight attack, making it among the war’s largest. He said Moscow targeted “almost all” of Ukraine, listing nine regions, from Lviv in the west to Sumy in the northeast.”

Retaliation was expected. Ukraine had hit targets an astonishing 2800 miles from the Ukraine-Russia border. The drones had been smuggled in, then located them in close proximity to the airbases, disguised as small shacks. Before the drones were released, everyone was evacuated and the lids of the shacks were opened by remote control.

Russia called Ukraine’s attack “terrorism.” I prefer the tactics of asymmetrical warfare. Russia wants to instill fear into Ukraine, and give them a sense that the war can not be won. Ukraine showed two can play this game. The difference is that Ukraine did not attack any residential areas.

George Washington commanded a tiny militia in comparison to Britain’s army. But he understood the adage that, “A good offense is the best defense.” (see note at end) But missile and drones by themselves do not capture territory. So, Russia’s unmanned attacks are a prelude to sending in tanks to secure territory.

It has been an unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine since February 24, 2022. Others would consider the invasion began on February 20, 2014, when Russia seized Crimea. Ukraine military has demonstrated since the beginning of hostilities, that incredible toughness, discipline and cleverness in tactics in spite of being vastly outnumbered. The US should be praising Ukraine and promising them more military support.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), is a non-profit which provides detailed assessments of the war. Their latest assessment shows advances by Russia in the northeast area of Sumy and to the south of the occupied territory. See link: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2025 .

It is definitely a war that is being fought on multiple fronts. At the same time, there is the propaganda war. The Peace Talks in Istanbul focused only on prisoner of war exchanges. The latest report from ISW states:

“Russia baselessly accused Ukraine of failing to conduct a prisoner of war (POW) exchange and to repatriate the bodies of killed in action (KIA) soldiers on June 6 — part of the Kremlin’s efforts to undermine mutually agreed upon confidence building measures with Ukraine.”

Further, it is stated that:

“Russian officials continue efforts to deflect blame away from Russia and onto Western states for the lack of progress toward a peace settlement.”

Ukraine Defenses against Drones

It is very hard to defend against 400 drones and 40 missiles all coming at once. However, large drones traveling long distances will fly low and can be spotted and shot down or otherwise destroyed. This is the good news.

Detection is difficult, but small radar units can identify drones. They can be shot down with machine guns or missiles, which will try to intercept the drone, if they are within range. But, it is hardly precise.

Proximity Fuzes and Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine

Four days ago, it was reported by CNN that all “proximity fuzes” approved by Congress and destined for Ukraine will be shipped instead to Yemen, by order of Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegseth.

CNN: Pentagon diverting key anti-drone technology from Ukraine to US forces in the Middle East

I was totally stunned at this news, although the media was pre-occupied by other events. I knew few people outside of the military understood the significance. When a missile is in close proximity to a drone, the proximity fuze triggers the missile to explode and destroy the drone.

Peter Hegseth dealt a terrible blow to Ukraine’s defenses. They will be less able to defend themselves against Russia’s attack and Russia isn’t going to lose one minute, to continue their massive attacks along Ukraine’s eastern border. Unlike the Ukrainian drone attack, they will bomb apartments, hospitals, schools, and other non-military targets to clear the way for occupation.

The proximity fuzes will be used to support Yemen against Houthi rebels. Houthi rebels are in northern Yemen. In the past, US provided Yemen with logistical and intelligence support to the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthi rebels. Trump greatly increase our involvement in March 2025 with airstrikes against the Houthi rebels. The Houthi rebels attacked two tankers last year in the Red Sea.

Let me say at the onset, that the proximity fuzes are elements of Ukraine defensive arsonal. It means Ukraine will have less success defending itself. Trump is not approving new military aid to Ukraine. Russia is counting on winning by attrition. Russia concocts lies about Ukraine refusal to return the bodies of Russian’s killed in action or to agree to prisoner exchanges.

So, thanks to Peter Hegseth, Russia will be more successful in their planned overthrow of Ukraine. Yemen also needs defending, but the nine arab country coalition, let by Saudi Arabia means the Yemen government will have strong military support in the future. Plus, Trump through actions of Secretary Hegseth is blatantly ignoring the approval of Ukraine military support and giving Russia the green light to continue their invasion.

It is not about 2 boys in a fight as Trump recently portrayed the war. It is about a democratic country fighting for its survival. And the President ignoring the intent of Congress in defending Ukraine.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Washington himself wrote in 1799, “offensive operations, often times, is the surest, if not the only (in some cases) means of defense,” according to Wikipedia.  (Thank you Google AI).

Wikipedia: Saudi-led intervention in the Yemeni civil war

AP News: Salvage complete of tanker at center of oil spill scare after being hit by Houthi rebels in Red Sea (January 10, 2025)

The civil war in Yemen is complex as many other countries are taking sides. The conflict has strong underpinnings in the split between the Shia faction (Houthis) and Sunni faction (Yemen government). Wikipedia has many pages devoted to various aspects of this conflict. There have been various efforts to negotiate a peace agreement. Perhaps in a later blog, I will go into more detail.

The Drone Attack on Russia Airbases

by Dave

Forget the old movies, with many bombs being dropped from large bombers flying at high altitudes at night. Drones don’t work that way. Drones are incredibly small, quiet and precise. Drones were smuggled into Russia and flown at low altitudes to avoid radar. The target aircraft could be seen from satellites. The drones used by Ukraine could not fly far, so Ukraine smuggled them into Russia close to the airfields. See link:

New footage reveals the impact of Ukraine’s audacious drone attack on Russian air bases

As pointed out in the article below, Russia has clear air superiority. In a phone call between Trump and Putin, Putin says he will retaliate.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump’s Ukrainian Policy

by Dave

Biden’s policy was quite simple. We would help arm Ukraine so they could defend their country against the Russian invasion. We would never put our troops in Ukraine. As Biden stated, when US and Russians meet on the battlefield, this is the start of World War III. However, the US and European leader would ultimately convince Putin through sanctions and arms that Ukraine was not theirs.

Trump’s One Day Solution

Trump on the other hand just had sound bites. The Russian invasion would never had happened if he had been president. Sure, he would get on the phone and tell Putin that invasion of another country was really stepping over the line. He even blamed the invasion on Kamala Harris, saying she met with Putin days prior to the invasion in 2022. This was a lie.

Trump’s False Claim That Harris Met with Putin

And of course, his most famous line was that he would end the Ukraine war on the first day of his administration. On April 25, he said it was just a figure of speech. “Obviously, people know that when I said that, it was said in jest, but it was also said that it will be ended,” he added.

A lot of supporters thought all that was needed was to elect Trump as the master in making the “deal” between Ukraine and Russia. Now we know, he had nothing in his hip pocket to offer Putin to withdraw.

The peace talks are a joke. The constant bombing of the northeastern city of Sumy in Ukraine shows Russia is clearing the area so Russian forces can capture Kyiv. They are also bombing targets including residential areas in the south and west of Ukraine, where there are few defenses.

Sumy city under threat as Russian forces advance, Ukraine says (Attack on June 3)

Ukraine has retaliated by bombing military targets deep within Russia. See link below:

Ukraine’s drone attack on Russian warplanes was a serious blow to the Kremlin’s strategic arsenal

This was followed by an attack of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia to Crimea. The extent of damages is unclear at present. Early reports indicate that the bridge is operational.

As Russia reels from drone attack, Ukraine targets vital Crimean Bridge

US gives Russia incentive to continue military attacks

The last “Peace Talks” lasted just one hour. The discussion was only about the exchange of prisoners.

Under Biden administration, the policy was to form a united front in confronting Russia’s invasion and continue to put pressure on through isolating Russia with tough economic sanction. Trump’s policy has boiled down to a “head in the sand” approach.

US Defence Secretary Hegseth to skip NATO-led meeting on Ukraine military support

Drought in Military Aid to Ukraine Enters Uncharted Territory

The NATO Summit (June 24-25, 2025) will be watched closely by Russia, in deciding more attacks on Ukraine. Military experts indicate that the European leaders, like France and Germany, can make up for the lack of support from the US. However, there are certain critical parts in the military arsonal which Ukraine depends on the US.

The Walk Away Option

I like the way a recent opinion post in CNN put it:

What Trump says he is tempted to do, though, is simply walk away from the whole mess. This is Biden’s war, he insists, or Putin’s and Zelensky’s.

But walking away – and it is unclear what that means in terms of US policy – may no longer be an option. At least not walking away unscathed.

His own insistence on ending the Ukraine conflict, along with his personal interventions with the Ukrainian and Russian leaders, means that Trump and the United States are now inextricably linked with the outcome.

That’s why events on the battlefield and at the negotiating table in Istanbul are being watched so closely.

Despite his regular attempts to disown it, the Ukraine war has very much become Trump’s war on which US credibility now hangs by a thread.

Of course, with Ukraine’s successful attacks on the airfields, Putin is characterizing Ukraine as the aggressor, lead by US and European countries. This is nonsense. Trump liked to say that Russia held all the cards in securing peace on their terms. Now, Ukraine has shown it has a few cards to play as well.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine and the Resignation of Ambassador Bridget Brink

by Dave

Ambassadors from the United States serve “at the pleasure of the President” and can be removed at any time. They can also resign as Ambassador Brink did on April 11, 2025. Her letter of resignation was published in the Detroit Free Press as follows:

” I just came home to Michigan from three years in the toughest job of my life ― serving as the American Ambassador to Ukraine ― supporting our democratic ally against brutal, unprovoked aggression by Russia.

I have proudly served five presidents ― Republicans and Democrats ― to make sure the United States is the strongest, greatest country that the world has ever known.

I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy ― with proper checks and balances by U.S. Congress. It is the role of America’s Foreign Service to execute that policy. Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.

As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down. After nearly three decades serving our country, I resigned as our ambassador to Ukraine.

I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity. I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement. And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering.”

— Why Trump doesn’t care about Ukraine

Trump made many promises as he campaigned. One was to end the Ukraine war on day one of his presidency. Nobody believed it. But, it suited right-wing followers, who see the US as too involved in the problems of others.

One sentence in the resignation letter says it all:

“the [Ukraine] policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.”

What kind of pressure? Putin is looking for concessions from the US and Ukraine, which will ultimately lead to the complete domination of Ukraine by Russia. The Trump administration is helping Russia in their misinformation against Ukraine. The biggest lie, was told just last week, and that Ukraine started the war. Seriously?

“You don’t start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,” he said at the White House on Monday. (I nominate this as the Politifact Lie of the Year, first told in Feb 15, 2025).

This comment followed Russia’s deadly attack on residential areas of the city of Sumy, killing 35 residents. The strategic importance of Sumy is obvious, as it lies just east of Kyiv, and would be an obvious point of ground attack on the capital.

BBC link: Trump blames Zelensky for starting war after massive Russian attack

February 24, 2022 is a day every Ukrainian will remember, as a column of Russian tanks drove south into Ukraine from Belarus, to “liberate” or denazify Ukraine, by capturing Kyiv. They accused Zelensky as being a nazi, even though he is Jewish. So the claim that Ukraine started the war is laughable.

— Mischaracterizing Zelensky as a corrupt leader

The money is the money. What bothered me — I hated to see the way it was, you know, excuse me, pissed away,” Trump said. “I hated to see that checks were sent for $60 billion every time Zelensky [traveled to Washington]. Where is all this money going?” he fumed.

Of course this is not true. Congress approves military assistance. The Defense Department then authorizes and follows up on the assistance.

This follows a whole series of lies Trump has spread since he campaigned for the presidency. And he will always be blaming Biden.

Ambassador Brink served as the US eyes and ears on the ground in Ukraine, and visited the residential areas, including schools and hospitals, that Putin had bombed. It must have been tough hearing Trump praise Putin and blame the victim, which is not just Zelensky, but the 37 million Ukrainian citizens.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Reality check from Wikipedia:

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the conflict between the two countries which began in 2014.[15][16][17] The fighting has caused hundreds of thousands of military casualties and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilian casualties. As of 2025, Russian troops occupy about 20% of Ukraine. From a population of 41 million, about 8 million Ukrainians had been internally displaced and more than 8.2 million had fled the country by April 2023, creating Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II.

Fact Checking Sites:

February 19, 2025 CNN, Trump falsely calls Zelensky ‘a dictator’ after Ukraine’s leader accuses him of living in ‘disinformation space’

March 2, 2025, PBS, Fact-checking Trump and Vance’s attacks on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy

April 25, 2025. Thursday Briefing: Trump Lashes Out at Zelensky

This last link may not be accessible to everyone. The key statement is by Trump, “He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country,” Trump wrote on social media.

It is telling Zelensky that he’s got no options. The fallacy, of course, is Putin doesn’t want 30% of Ukraine. He wants the entire country under his control.

Ukraine stalemate and Jan 20, 2025

by Dave

Peace or war? Right now, it is war. CNN has provided an excellent summary of a dramatic week, as they call it.

Link CNN: From a call with Putin to an experimental strike, a dramatic week transforms the war in Ukraine

The war is escalating, with Russia deploying North Korean troops and firing a hypersonic missile (Oreshnik). The US is in turn, has allowed Ukraine to use US missiles to attack targets in Russia and to use land mines to defend themselves against Russian advances. There are reports that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, so it is likely Biden will expedite shipments to Ukraine. He’ll do everything possible to aid Ukraine before his term ends.

For the country of Ukraine, it is simply a fight for their survival. They became an independent country on August 24, 1991. On that day, Gorbachev was still the president, but his authority was being rapidly diminished by the popularity of Boris Yeltsin, who became president on December 25, 1991.

Ukraine has never threatened the security of Russia. It’s military is much smaller than Russia’s, so many military experts were surprised on how well Ukraine defended its country. But, Putin detests the decisions made by Gorbachev and later Yeltsin, and the Russian congress, in allowing the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Trump is the big unknown. He wants to show immediately, that he is doing what is best for America and typically opts for quick solutions, like simply disengaging from problems, rather than help solving them. The war is horrible. However, the peace may be even worse, because Putin want surrender and capture of Zelensky following by the dismantling of the government. There is no happy middle ground.

Russia hasn’t retaken Kursk region, which I believe will be critical to a ground assault on Kyiv. This is not “Biden’s” war, it is Putin’s war. And Putin will not stop with Ukraine. Biden chose to help Ukraine, but never to send US troops, which I believe was a wise decision.

Trump can hand a big victory to Putin, justifying it as saving taxpayers billions of dollars. A total of 64 billions of dollars has been spent. Victory in Ukraine means Putin can use his troops elsewhere. Most likely, to support the breakaway government in eastern Libya, led by General Khalifa Hafter. The big prize there is 46 billion barrels of oil.

Putin will use the military mercenaries, Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) to gain power within Africa. I will post later on this. They are good at taking advantage of unstable situations. There are reports that the Wagner group is operating in Haiti, as the US and other countries attempt to bring order and security to the country.

As Trump seems set on a cabinet filled with Fox News hosts, and fixated on appearances and billionaires with their own agendas rather than experience, we may soon see, it is not a American first, but an American last.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War escalates

by Dave

Russia is pressing forward on Ukraine’s eastern front. They are also fighting to retake the Kurst area, which if successful, will be the point where tanks pour across the border and go straight into Kyiv.

US policy has been changed to allow Ukraine to use land mines in order to defend their country. They also now allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack targets well within Russia. US has allowed US contractors to go into Ukraine to repair military equipment, including the F-16 fighter jet.

One can say that Russia escalated first, by deploying North Korean soldiers on the battlefield, against Ukraine.

Link: Ukraine fires several US-made longer-range missiles into Russia for the first time

It is pretty scary. Biden made it clear that we would never send American troops to Ukraine. He stated when US and Russian soldiers are fighting on the same battlefield, it is the beginning of World War III. I agree.

But is there a serious path to peace? Russia is risking thousands of Russian lives at this moment, in an aggressive escalation of the war. Their missile attacks are hitting targets within Kyiv. What Russia wants, is a simple message to US and European leaders, that they will ultimately win this war. It is not peace they desire but surrender.

As I see Trump packing his Cabinet with less than savvy conservative loyalists, including Tulsi Gabbard, nominated as Director of National Intelligence. (I am preparing a post on her) because they look good on Fox News.

I worry that Trump will sell Ukraine out and reward Russia for their invasion. President Zelensky stated that he would like the war to end through talks. It may have been a mistake, because it allows Trump to sell out Ukraine, cutting a deal between the US and Russia, that Zelensky will never be a participant.

Putin wants total victory and control of Kyiv. He would like Zelensky dead, so he can install a Ukrainian president that reports to Moscow.

It is a choice of helping Ukraine continue as a free, independent democracy, or a country ruled by a Russian puppet, like in Belarus and Chechnya. A lot rests with Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link: What to know about Tulsi Gabbard

I thought this link was factually correct and unbiased. It is interesting to note that her father switched from Republican to Democrat, while in 2022, she switched from Democrat to Republican. I will post more on Gabbard. She stated that the Ukraine invasion was a result of NATO expansion, which is really Putin’s explanation of why Russia had to invade Ukraine. He does not acknowledge the sovereignty of Ukraine.

The Ukraine War: Russian Counter-offensive

by Dave

As Trump assembles his next cabinet, Vladimir Putin has been assembling his troops for a major offensive. It is being called the counter offensive, because Ukrainian forces seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast region in August 2024.

Link: Ukrainian occupation of Kursk Oblast Region with Russia

Russia prepared for the attack by amassing approximately 50,000 troops according to recent reports. North Korea is reported to have sent 10,000 troops. It is unknown at this point how many North Koreans soldiers will be involved in combat.

What Russia was counting on, was that Ukraine would fight a purely defensive war. CNN reports:

The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.

Previously, Ukraine had air strikes inside Russia, hitting strictly military targets. Ukraine’s objective is to use the occupation of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia, in hopes of a negotiated settlement.

An old military saying is the best defense is a good offense. Russia has to divert troops it would needs to hold and advance the occupied region of Ukraine to the south of Kursk to launch the counter-offensive to re-take the Kursk region.

Russia’s Intent

The city of Sudzha, Russia is very close to the Russian border with Ukraine. With the help of North Korea, Russia will retake Sudzka, then cross over into Ukraine and take Sumy, which lies just 225 miles east of Kyiv.

So, the invasion started with Russia wanting to capture Kyiv rapidly with Belarus support, by sending tanks south over the Belarus-Ukraine border, beginning in Chernobyl. Now, it will be a drive from eastward from Sudzka, to Sumy and finally Kyiv.

US Policy

I am certain at this moment, the Biden administration is looking at everything possible to help defend Ukraine. They have allowed American contractors to enter Ukraine, to repair military equipment. Of vital importance, are the Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets. Also, per the link below, Biden is planning to send “billions of dollars” in defense aid before leaving office.

Link: Pentagon allows US military contractors to fix weapons in Ukraine

I don’t think Russia will make its move toward Sumy until after January 20, 2025. This is a rapidly evolving story, and I don’t know how well Ukraine can defend the captured territory in Russia.

The US has provided Ukraine with long range missile systems, but has not permitted Ukraine to use them against targets deep into Russia territory. It is obvious, that despite all efforts, the war escalates. Drones are being used on both sides. Fake drones are used to, in order to draw off the firing, so the real drones can be more effective.

Trump has stated often, that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine if he were president. Now, if the Sudzka invasion does takes place, it places Ukraine’s survival as an independent country at risk.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Appeasement

by Dave

Russia would love to see Donald Trump win the election. He would appease Russia by giving them part of Ukraine, that they currently occupy. From there, Russian troops would pour into Kyiv and Trump would do nothing.

For anyone who is undecided who to vote for- the choice should be clear after Trump’s statement to appease Putin.

Per AP news story:

Former President Donald Trump described Ukraine in bleak and mournful terms Wednesday, referring to its people as “dead” and the country itself as “demolished,” and further raising questions about how much the former president would be willing if elected again to concede in a negotiation over the country’s future.

The Ukrainian people are not dead and the country is not demolished. Russia has done its best to conquer the country, and Ukrainians have fought and given their lives so they can live in a free country. Ukraine is an independent country with internationally recognized borders. Donald Trump does not appreciate the need to contain Russian aggression. He wants to appease Putin.

AP News Story: Trump says Ukraine is ‘demolished’ and dismisses its defense against Russia’s invasion

If there is any lesson to be learned from World War II, it is that appeasement does not work. Russia controls Belarus and Chechnya. The leaders of these countries report to the Kremlin.

Since the invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia thought it could send its tanks from Belarus, to Kyiv, but the Ukrainians proved them wrong. From the outset, the US pledged military support in terms of weapons but not soldiers. Biden had it right when he said that once there were Americans and Russians on the same battlefield, you have the beginnings of a world war.

Trump has lied repeatedly about VP Harris meeting with Putin before the war started. It never happened.

Link: Trump falsely claims Harris met with Putin before Ukraine invasion

CNN Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. Harris has never met with Putin. In reality, she met with US allies, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the Munich Security Conference in the days before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Putin was not at the conference.

The US position prior to the invasion was to maintain full alignment with partners and send a clear message to Russia that the US prefers diplomacy but is ready in case of Russian aggression, according to CNN. This is why Harris was in Munich.

And just as I completed this post, General McChrystal endorsed Kamala Harris. He wrote:

Character will dictate whether we stand by our NATO allies and against Vladimir Putin’s continued aggression. Character will dictate whether we have a commander in chief who honors and respects the men and women who serve in uniform.

And later he writes, Harris has the right character to be commander in chief.

Ms. Harris has the strength, the temperament and, importantly, the values to serve as commander in chief. When she sits down with world leaders like President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, representing the United States on the global stage, I have no doubt that she is working in our national interest, not her own.

General McChrystal service to our country spans decades in many conflicts. His bio is provided below.

General McChrystal

Trump has always threatened to pull out of NATO. Per The Atlanta, “But during Trump’s time in office, the withdrawal never happened. That was because there was someone there to talk him out of it. Bolton says he did it; Jim Mattis, John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, Mike Pompeo and even Mike Pence are thought to have done so too. (The Atlanta, issue January/February 2024)

James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense under Trump, said it best, “He is more dangerous than anyone could ever imagine.”

National Security Advisor H.H. McMasters under Trump stated, “President Trump and other officials have repeatedly compromised our principles in pursuit of partisan advantage and personal gain.”

Harris will work with our allies and see that Putin never takes Ukraine. The Ukrainians are paying the ultimate price, defending the country with their lives. Trump will leave Ukraine defenseless to satisfy Putin.

On November 5, tell Trump that Ukraine lives. It doesn’t matter how much damage Russia inflicts on Ukraine. They will not surrender to tyranny. And we should not either.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Truth matters

by Dave

So many lies out there, it is getting difficult to list them. So I selected 4 big lies, dealing with job growth, fentanyl from Mexico, Russia invasion of Ukraine, and Harris’ role in stopping illegal immigration.

If you listen to Fox News, even for 5 minutes, in the evening hours, you will likely hear one of these lies, the most popular seems to be Harris was named border czar by Biden. Just didn’t happen.

1. TRUMP: “MASSIVE SCANDAL! The Harris-Biden Administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America. New Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Administration PADDED THE NUMBERS with an extra 818,000 Jobs that DO NOT EXIST, AND NEVER DID.” (Trump, Truth Social, Aug 21, then later at an event Aug. 22 in Cochise County, Arizona).

PANTS ON FIRE (Politifact): On Aug. 21, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an annual “benchmarking” adjustment based on a sweep of state-based unemployment insurance data. This is considered more precise than the employer-based data the agency uses to assemble its closely watched monthly employment reports.

2. TRUMP: “We’re losing 300,000 people a year to fentanyl that comes through our border. We had it down to the lowest number and now it’s worse than it’s ever been.”

PANTS ON FIRE (Politifact): Trump’s figures appear to have no basis in fact. Government statistics show the number of drug overdose deaths per year is hovering around 100,000 to 110,000, with opioid-related deaths at about 81,000. Moreover, though the number of opioid deaths has risen since Trump left office, it’s incorrect to claim they were the “lowest” while he was president.

We will be following up this with a blog on the fentanyl epidemic. It is not being brought across the border by illegal immigrants, but by vehicles, legally crossing the border every day.

3. TRUMP: When ever asked about Ukraine, Trump goes into this rant about how it would never have happened if he was president. He has put the blame on Joe Biden and now on Kamala Harris.

Trump said in a speech in North Carolina: “Remember when Biden sent Kamala to Europe to stop the war in Ukraine. She met with Putin, and then three days later, he attacked. How did she do? Do you think she did a good job? She met with Putin to tell him, ‘Don’t do it.’ And three days later, he attacked; that’s when the attack started. Did you know that, General?”

FALSE (CNN Facts first): Harris has never met with Putin. In reality, she met with US allies, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at the Munich Security Conference in the days before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Putin was not at the conference.

“Frankly speaking, I cannot recall a single contact between President Putin and Mrs. Harris,” a Kremlin spokesperson said last month, according to a state-owned Russian news agency.

The Biden administration was still trying to deter an invasion of Ukraine at the time of Harris’ 2022 trip to the conference in Germany, but top administration officials, including President Joe Biden himself, made clear that they believed Putin was already moving toward invading. As Harris was on her way to Germany, Biden told reporters that he thought a Russian attack “will happen in the next several days.”

CNN reported on the day the Munich conference began that a senior administration official said Harris had three key objectives: “Focus on the ‘fast-changing’ situation on the ground, maintain full alignment with partners and send a clear message to Russia that the US prefers diplomacy but is ready in case of Russian aggression.”

The Munich conference was held from February 18 to February 20, 2022; Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

4. TRUMP: President Joe Biden appointed “Kamala Harris to be his border czar to deal with illegal immigration … Harris was put in charge of stopping illegal immigration.”

MOSTLY FALSE (Politifact) : I would have considered this either false or pants on fire, because Biden did not put VP Kamala Harris in charge of stopping illegal immigration at the border. There was never a “border czar” named by the President. Border security and management is the Homeland Security secretary’s responsibility. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

In March 2021, President Joe Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with working alongside officials in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras to address the issues driving people to leave those countries and come to the United States. The Biden-Harris administration said it would focus on five key issues: economic insecurity, corruption, human rights, criminal gang violence and gender-based violence.

Links:

Job Statistics: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/23/donald-trump/donald-trumps-pants-on-fire-claim-that-biden-harri/

Fentanyl deaths: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/16/donald-trump/trump-drastically-inflates-annual-fentanyl-death-n/

2022 Meeting with Putin: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/fact-check-trump-harris-putin-meeting-ukraine/index.html

Border czar: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/jul/24/republican-national-committee-republican/border-czar-kamala-harris-assigned-to-tackle-imm

I do not want to make light of the real opioid epidemic in the US. Just the “facts” coming from Donald Trump are untrue. If you built a 2000 mile wall at the southern border, the flow of opioids would be the same.

Fentanyl, its precursors and equipment – such as pill presses – used to make the drug often times enters the U.S. through common trade pathways, such as air cargo and express courier. And, fentanyl is easy to hide, so often it is carried through at the ports of entry by cars.

The last three problems, the fentanyl pouring into the US from Mexico and China, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Guatemala, are really global problems, and they require global solution.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Don’t visit Russia

by Dave

I will not visit Russia. They are taking Americans and using them as trading pawns to allow the release of Russians in the US and the EU. This is Putin’s Russia. It’s a terrible shame.

Amateur ballerina Ksenia Karelina, a native of Russia, became a US Citizen in 2021. She was a dual US-Russian citizen, and her travel to Russia was perfectly legal. She just wanted to visit her family in Russia. She lives in Los Angeles. Ksenia arrived in Russia in January 2024 from Istanbul, Turkey and immediately was detained. It was discovered that she made a $51.80 contribution to Razom, a charitable agency which provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

According to CBS reporting, as she was departing Istanbul, an odd encounter occurred when a Russian airline employee asked if she had any other passports. She produced her US Passport. This could have tipped off the Russians that a dual citizen was coming.

Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-american-ksenia-karelina-boyfriend-pleads-for-her-return/

On arrival in Russia, she was detained and a contribution to “Razom for Ukraine” was discovered from cellphone records.

Razom is the Ukrainian word for “together.” This agency provides only humanitarian aid to Ukraine. From their website, they note in 2022, their assistance included:

Packed and delivered over 90,000 first aid kits and over 2,000 medical backpacks, additionally, 50,000 tourniquets–the main life-saving tool–were delivered to medics. Razom has purchased nearly 400,000 tourniquets. We have delivered over 2,000 quadcopters for safe passage and evacuation. We sourced and serviced 69 cars for medics to use as ambulances. We have supplied over 14,000 radios and over 2,000 tablets to keep Ukrainians connected.

Razom is really like the Red Cross. It is involved in saving lives. It has never provided any military equipment.

Russia has bombed homes, apartments, schools and hospitals in Ukraine. The Russians have planted landmines throughout Ukraine. It is estimated that 1/3 of all arable land in areas of hostilities is mined. So, Ukraine is in desperate need of medical supplies.

Ksenia has been sentenced to 12 years in prison. She probably would not have been imprisoned if she was just a Russian citizen. Russia want to use her as a pawn in prisoner exchanges with the US or our European partners.

When I read this story of Ksenia imprisonment, I felt like so sad for her, because she did absolutely nothing wrong. As long as we have Putin, Russia isn’t a country I want to visit. The State Department considers Russia a level 4 risk – Do not visit.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Globalism and Radical Republicans

by Dave

Global problems need global solutions. NATO is a real solution to Russian expansion under Putin. Ukraine must not be the next victim to Russia’s invasion. Climate change is real. The hard evidence is many more extreme weather events. We’ve seen the melting of the polar caps and the rise in sea levels. Nuclear disarmament is critical to world peace. Again, global solutions can work. Unilateral actions or no actions will fail.

Global solutions are very difficult to accomplish. No one country will be given credit, if Putin gives up in Ukraine. It is not the Republican party in general that wants to cut aid to Ukraine, but a small group of radical Republicans, who put political gain ahead of what’s best for the country and the world.

With this small group of Republicans, there is no room for compromise. The opinion below, singles out Marjorie Taylor Greene, as the leader in the anti-Ukraine aid campaign. But, the driving force is a disengagement into world affairs, at a time where alliances are critical.

The best way to defeat Rep. Greene and others is at the polls in November.

See CNN link: Opinion: If Marjorie Taylor Greene wins on Ukraine aid, we’re headed for dangerous territory

Stay tuned,

Dave

The F-16 and other armament issues

by Dave

Biden does not want to play into Putin’s hand, whose narrative is that Ukraine is the aggressor. Of course, Ukraine is vastly outnumbered in the battlefield, so this is plainly absurd. But, Putin’s narrative is that Ukraine with NATO is a threat to Russia. NATO is a defense organization and because Ukraine is not a member, is not obligated to come to Ukraine’s defense. When US and Russian forces are on the same battlefield, you have the real possibility of World War III. Similarly when NATO and Russian forces meet in combat in Ukraine, there is not stopping the potential escalation that will occur.

So, from the onset of hostilities, the US has tried to make this an Ukrainian war, arming Ukrainians to defend themselves with limited range arms beginning with the Obama administration, and then ramping up quickly during the Trump administration. Then on February 24, 2022, the Russian army with the cooperation of Belarus, made their initial tank assault from the Ukraine-Belarus border. (To first occupy the site of the abandon Chernobyl nuclear reactor, was a terrible error, as the ground is still radio-active in many parts).

The bellicose nature of Putin, his autocratic rule and his hostilities towards NATO did not go unnoticed. NATO expanded into Eastern Europe in 2004, with the admission of seven countries, under President George W. Bush. I believe this was the right decision, approved by all members of NATO as required.

Link: Wikipedia, Members of NATO

Sending fighter jets to Ukraine will be viewed by Russia as arming Ukraine with offensive weapons which could be used to attack Russia. I believe this is exactly what Ukraine wants to do, principally to knock out the Russian supply bases on the Russian-Ukraine border. So, there are some really scary escalation scenarios.

It maybe a surprise to many, to know that the F-16 is a single engine plane, with just one pilot, first produced in 1978. But of course, it has been modified many times, so they refer to it as the Fighting Falcon or F-16C. Military experts give it high praise against the Russian MiG-29 in dogfights. Experts also conclude that if the US provided F-16’s, it could be a real game changer in knocking out Russia’s superiority in the sky. It would not stop the constant missile attacks.

Link: MiG 29 verses F-16

Ukraine is not trained to fly F-16. And there will be all sorts of issues with maintaining the aircraft. For those who remember the Vietnam war, the escalation began with the US providing helicopters and pilots to South Vietnam. Then more US troops were needed to defend these bases which we built.

The US has supplied helicopters to Ukraine, and a very long list of military equipment and funding for their defense. Other countries, most notably the UK, Germany and France, have been constantly helping Ukraine, but it is really a worldwide effort. See link below:

Link: List of Military Aid to Ukraine

At the very end of this list, a summary of future US aid to Ukraine is provided. The number of countries is long, and honestly, I didn’t expect to see New Zealand, Taiwan or South Korea on the list of countries.

I have commented in prior blogs on the automated battlefield weaponry including the suicidal drone like the switchblades, javelins and the HIMAR missile launchers. Military equipment is not my forte, but there are plenty of websites which go into extensive details.

I believe some countries are helping Ukraine, but through other countries and doing it quietly, so not to get on the bad side of Putin. Then there is a lot of Russian arms left behind by retreating Russian (or mercenary) soldiers. So, Russians are being killed sometimes by their own weapons.

There’s a lot of politics, and misinformation around which is bound to get worse as we approach the 2024 elections. In general, there has been bipartisan support of military aid to Ukraine, with some exceptions some select members of Congress, who want either less money to be spent or approval for the F-16. A number of guests on conservative Fox News, have advocated less money to Ukraine and more to stop illegal immigration. My thinking is we should not short change foreign policy because spending more on domestic policy is more popular with voters.

Trump has bragged about the 250 million dollars of aid given to Ukraine in 2019, but leaves out the fact that he held up providing the aid, in an attempt to pressure President Zelensky to lie to his people and announce that Ukraine was investigating Hunter Biden for possible violation of the law regarding Burisma. In exchange, Trump would unfreeze aid to Ukraine. This was the basis for his first impeachment. It was clearly an abuse of presidential power and grounds for impeachment.

Trump also exaggerated how little aid Obama gave Ukraine. Trump’s claim that Obama gave the former president only “pillow and sheets” has been debunked.

CNN: Fact-checking Trump’s claim that Obama gave Ukraine ‘pillows and sheets’

Politifact: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/oct/25/matt-gaetz/matt-gaetz-says-obama-permanently-stopped-military/

Both of these links are from 2019. Going back in time and spreading disinformation does not help.

I guess there are enough real issues going forward, on whether more weapons will bring this war to an end, or broaden the conflict. The latest developments in regards to Moldova are scary. Hopefully, there are some countries in the background, helping to broker a ceasefire, as a first step to a Russian withdrawal.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Moldova and Transnistria

by Dave

Ukraine’s President Zelensky has often stated that if Russian aggression does not stop at Ukraine, more countries will be invaded or will become Russian puppets because they fear the military presence of Russia. I agree, and it is the smaller and more unstable countries to go first. It will not necessarily be countries that lie on their borders. There are a number of smaller countries in Africa, which for the right price can be bought off.

Transnistria is a region on the southeastern border of Moldova. It is a breakaway state from Moldova, occupying a narrow strip of land on the Moldova-Ukraine border. Its capital is Tirispol. The Council of Europe considers the territory to be under military occupation by Russia. It is internationally recognized as a part of Moldova, but it is independent in many aspects. Per Wikipedia:

“Transnistria is an unrecognised but de facto independent presidential republic with its own government, parliament, military, police, postal system, currency, and vehicle registration. Its authorities have adopted a constitution, flag, national anthem, and coat of arms. After a 2005 agreement between Moldova and Ukraine, all Transnistrian companies that seek to export goods through the Ukrainian border must be registered with the Moldovan authorities.”

It was created by a ceasefire agreement in 1992, the first year with Yeltsin in office. It is a ceasefire agreement designed to end the violence broke out in 1990. The population of Transnistria is divided, with 29% Russian, 29% Moldovan and 23% Ukrainian. It has a higher percentage of Russians than the rest of Moldova.

Per Wikipedia:

The language laws presented a particularly volatile issue as a great proportion of the non-Moldovan population of the Moldavian SSR did not speak Moldovan (Romanian). … Some described the language laws as “discriminatory” and criticized their rapid implementation. Others, on the contrary, complained the laws were not followed.

Wikipedia Transnistria

Wikipedia Transnistria War

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My concerns that Russia would use unrecognized Transnistria region to attack Ukraine appears to quickly becoming a reality. Putin is using a standard ploy of posing as the defender of Transnistria instead of the invader. This was exactly the same pretext as used a year ago. Russia had to invade the Dunbas region, to defend the populace against the Ukrainian “nazis.”

The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, who wants her country to join the European Union, accused Moscow this month (February 2023) of planning a coup to topple Moldova’s leadership. Moscow denied the allegation. “The Kremlin’s attempts to bring violence to Moldova will not work. Our main goal is the security of citizens and the state. (The Guardian)

What has maintained the peace between Transnistria and Moldova, is the Joint Control Commission, which included both Moldova and Russian troops as a peacekeeping force. Of course, Putin wants to invade Transnistria and control it, and the ceasefire agreement is in his way. Transnistria will be critical to attacking Odesa and controlling the Black Sea ports.

The headline in Reuters, February 24, 2023 read, “Russia told the West on Friday that it would view as an attack on itself any actions that threatened Russian peacekeepers in Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region, one day after Moscow accused Ukraine of planning an invasion.”

Link: Russia warns West over threatening its troops in breakaway Moldovan region

So, Russia now is setting the stage for invading Transnistria (note minor spelling differences) on the absurd pretext of protecting its peacekeeping force of perhaps 1700 troops.

It is a terrible development as Russia is set on expanding the conflict, really just like President Zelensky said he would. Romania is strongly allied with Moldova, in its support of Ukraine. Romania has been part of NATO since 2004.

This small sliver of the breakaway state of Transnistria looks to become a red hot point of contention with Russia acting like they own it.

Stay tuned,

Dave