President Nicolas Maduro lost the election that occurred on July 28, 2024. Instead of accepting defeat, he withheld the official election tallies by district and had the National Electoral College declare false results showing he had won.
Mass protests erupted in August, and Maduro allowed police to arrest more than 2,400 people involved in organizing the protests. Nicolas Maduro controls both the legislature and judiciary. The country is in shambles as he tries to destroy any opposition by force through Operation Tun Tun (knock knock). According to the Miami Herald, “activists have denounced that a number of the agents taking part in repressing opposition figures and protesters have Cuban accents”, as “at least four passenger flights” have arrived from Cuba, according to local media.
An arrest warrant was issued for the real winner of the election, Edmund Gonzalez. Fortunately, he was able to escape to Spain. A summary of the international response in condemning Maduro is provided in the summary below.
The US is not standing by. It has sanctioned hundreds of government officials involved in falsification of election results and the crackdown of the opposition party. The sanctions involve seizing any assets the officials have in the US and denying them visas to enter the US.
So, Maduro is seeking vengeance against the US. It has arrested six individuals including three Americans in plotting to assassinate Maduro. I don’t know the evidence against them, but if the president can rig election results, he can certainly convict these individuals without any real evidence.
Maduro went on to claim this is a CIA plot without any evidence. See link below:
No CIA plot. Venezuela does not threaten the US. Maduro threatens democracy, and the rule of law in his country. He is attempting to rule the country by fear and corruption. He has destroyed the most important institutions in a democracy – an independent legislature and judiciary.
Maduro has a few friends, like Nicaragua, Cuba and Russia. These countries also have dictators.
“This year and to honor you all, to thank you all, I am going to decree the beginning of Christmas on October 1. Christmas arrived for everyone, in peace, joy and security!” he said.
Thank you President Maduro. This really happened today, September 4. The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference on Tuesday protested the unilateral acceleration of Christmas, warning that the holiday “is not to be used for political or propaganda goals.” “Christmas commences on December 25,” it said in a statement.
In Part I, I covered the seizure of Maduro’s plane and Maduro’s accusation of piracy. Nicolas Maduro stole democracy and destroyed the economy of Venezuela. He is the much larger pirate.
Both the judiciary and legislature fear Maduros. The arrest warrant for the Presidential candidate, Edmund Gonzalez is an attempt to silence the main opposition party, Plataforma Unitaria Democrática (PUD).
The first opposition candidate, Maria Carine Machado, was ruled ineligible to run as candidate by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, which is compliant with Maduros regime and suppression of democracy. Bit by bit, the populace has grown fearful of Maduro and his suppression of free speech.
On 1 August 2024, Machado published a letter in The Wall Street Journal, stating that she had gone in to hiding “fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen from the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro.”
It was a wonderful chance to revive democracy. But this chance is gone.
The Biden administration tried to strike a deal with Maduro, of freeing Americans held in Venezuela, and conducting fair elections in return for easing sanctions on the export of oil to US refineries, referred to as the Barbados agreement. A prisoner swap occurred in December 2023. Presidential elections were scheduled.
This new approach failed on April 17, 2024 when the Supreme Court ruled that Maria Carine Machado could not run for the presidency. The US re-imposed sanctions, but allowed the international oil companies to continue to operate (Chevron, Repsol and others) using waivers from sanctions. I think with the arrest warrant for Edmund Gonzalez, these waivers will soon be gone.
The article below describes their exodus to neighboring countries. It also describes the dynamics of a petrostate, where the country is very dependent on a single resource namely oil.Eight million Venezuelans have left the country. With a massively corrupt government, and little chance that dictator Maduro would do anything, but make things worse, it is no wonder that the brightest and most ambitious look to leave their country.
One excellent step, undertaken by the Department of Justice during the Trump administration, in year 2020, was to indict Nicolas Maduro and 14 other officials of narco-terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking and other criminal charges. In announcing the indictment, AG William Barr referred to Maduro as the former president of Venezuela, because on January 23, 2019, Juan Guaido was elected by the legislature as the interim president, and quickly recognized by over 60 countries. This didn’t last, and by 2021, EU countries and the US reluctantly recognized Nicolas Maduro as president.
“Today we announce criminal charges against Nicolás Maduro Moros for running, together with his top lieutenants, a narco-terrorism partnership with the FARC for the past 20 years,” said U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman.
FARC is a rebel group within Colombia, financed by drug trafficking, kidnapping and extortion. FARC still exists and given the dire situation in Venezuela, I have no doubt Maduro would have little to lose from collaborating with them in opioid drug distribution, particularly from Brazil to Europe.
The US has been on the side of Colombia in their decades long fight against FARC. Not only did they receive help from their South American neighbor, Venezuela, but Libya’s dictator Gaddafi was sending them millions of dollars until he was killed in the Libyan civil war in 2011.
Back to the current problems in Venezuela. Maduro can try to change Christmas to October, but really there is no Christmas in Venezuela, after he stole the election. There is reliable evidence of a rigged election:
Academics, news outlets and the opposition provided “strong evidence” according to The Guardian[11] to suggest that González won the election by a wide margin,[12][13] with the opposition releasing copies of official tally sheets collected by poll watchers from a majority of polling centers showing a landslide victory for González.
And he is prepared to lock up those who accuse him of stealing the election.
The US statement was very cautious, but this was a few days before the arrest warrant was issued for Edmund Gonzalez. Still, it supported the people of Venezuela instead of the “elected” president:
The United States applauds the courage and resilience of the millions of Venezuelans who voted and who continue to peacefully call for Maduro to acknowledge that Edmundo González Urrutia received the most votes.
Approximately 2,400 people have been arrested. On August 15, Maduro’s supporters in the National Assembly passed a law that grants the government broad powers to control and shut down nongovernmental organizations.
Venezuela produces approximately 800,000 barrels per day of heavy oil. They need to import a diluent (heavy naphtha) to pump the oil through pipelines and into tankers. So, I believe the US and other countries will increase sanctions against oil exports and naphtha imports.
Latest News is troubling
Venezuela has claimed that it is entitled to about 2/3 of Guyana, which I investigated in Feb 2024:
As reported on September 4, Guyana discovered 4.4 tons of cocaine in a very remote area of Guyana, close to the Venezuelan border. There was a landing strip constructed by the smugglers. Days earlier, a large fuel depot. Guyana is neither the source nor the destination of this cocaine, but transhipment point. From Guyana, the cocaine could be smuggled to Brazil, to be sold in Europe. Or perhaps destined for the US.
I am wondering if Maduro administration is involved in this activity. Mathews Ridge is definitely in the area that Maduro claims belongs to Venezuela.
I am following this story closely. A senior policeman from Guyana was connect to this drug bust.
Going forward
It would only be Christmas in Venezuela if Maduro left in October. The country will suffer, until there is real change in the country. The rest of the countries will absorb the Venezuelans escaping the chaos. I hope Venezuelans never give up fighting to restore their democracy.
Unfortunately, even with sanctions and condemnations of the rest of the world, Maduro will be a menace for his people, and many other countries.
Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, accused the United States of piracy, because we took his plane, which was undergoing maintenance in Dominican Republic. In particular, he attacked Attorney General Merrick Garland. It was obviously embarrassing to Maduro. Purchase of the plane was done through a “shell company” to get around US sanctions. Kudos go to all the agencies involved, particularly the State Department, which had to get the approval from Dominican Republic and the Department of Homeland Security under the leadership of Alejandro Mayorkas.
The accomplices to the repossession, the Dominican Republic, are likely very happy to accomodate the US as they have been absorbing the exodus from Venezuela for years. DR is not paradise, as it seems to take a beating with every hurricane, but it’s better than the repressive regime of Maduro.
The Department of Homeland Security also is to be congratulated. Excerpt from CNN link:
For years, US officials have sought to disrupt the flow of billions of dollars to the regime. Homeland Security Investigations — the second largest investigative agency in the federal government — has seized dozens of luxury vehicles, among other assets, heading to Venezuela.
The economic sanctions against Venezuela, have a long history. The U.S. has been concerned about Venezuelan narcotics trafficking since 2005 and its lack of cooperation in combatting terrorism since 2006.
Venezuela’s President Maduro looks for some legitimacy, but his government thrives on corruption, and the July 28 election is being widely condemned as fraudulent.
Following the announcement by Venezuelan authorities that Maduro had won the 28 July 2024 presidential election, condemned as fraudulent, Reuters reported on 21 August 2024 that the U.S. Treasury Department had submitted to the State Department a list of 60 individuals and their family members—particularly those from the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ)—for possible sanctions.
The Maduro regime refuses to release the official tallies of the election. I imagine there are some extremely brave Venezuelans who just will not sign off on false tallies.
So, the attorney general of Venezuela is having the opposition candidate thrown in jail. That’s what dictators do when they lose an election.
Venezuela’s attorney general’s office said on Monday a court has issued an arrest warrant for opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez, accusing him of conspiracy and other crimes amid a dispute over whether he or President Nicolas Maduro won a July election.
Venezuela’s economy is in shambles. Oil production is now well under a million barrels per day, about 1/3 of its production, a decade before. Oil is the life blood of the Venezuelan economy. In many countries, the rich get richer. In Venezuela, to become rich, they first have to kiss up to the president and his party. Corruption breeds corruption.
Unfortunately, it will get worse before it gets better. Maduro lost his plane. Venezuela lost its democracy and economy. Just who are the pirates?
It gets at times pretty scary. What nationalism means, at least to Trump supporters, is we do what is in our interest. Actually, the US foreign policy always has put the country’s interest at its top priority. It’s really the short-sighted policy of Trump when our policy extends to telling other countries what to do or we will try to screw them over big time. I have said about a 100 times, you can’t win a trade war or an arms race, because your enemies will retaliate, a guaranteed lose-lose outcome. Trump’s nationalist policies have shut out international cooperation of other countries in helping solve problems. China could have helped us with to denuclearize North Korea, but not any longer. Most of the time, Trump’s threats are really hot air. At the last minute, he’ll find a reason not to take immediate action, but still leave this lingering idea that other countries are doing really shameful things. Sort of like, you’re bad and we’ll get even later. Very dumb and kind of childish. And he will always, always claim victory. Saber rattling, blaming others and just plain lying are sad ways to run foreign affairs.
Case in point is our Venezuela policy. Obviously, Trump was quick to support opposition leader, Juan Guaido on the wrong assumption that the military would throw their support behind him, Maduro would be history. He attacked the “Biden-Obama” administration for not taking action against Maduro. He did not mention that during the 11 years Hugo Chavez was in power, intent on destroying democratic and civil liberties, and establishing a corrupt system of governance, George Bush could do little to prevent this. Trump claimed his policies worked in Venezuela, as he pressured the Russians to pull out of Venezuela. In March 2019, (about a million Trump tweets ago) Russia responded saying this wasn’t true and they were going to honor their commitments made to Venezuela. See link in below.
Venezuela is a great example of Russia, China and the US each doing what is in their national interest. Russia and China have invested heavily in Venezuela, which underlies their support of Maduro. The US would like to see Maduro gone and restoration of a stability in the country. The recent visit by UN Commissioner on Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet did not make headline news. The Trump administration has cut off all funding for the UN Human Rights Council, calling it a leftist organization. The ultra conservative National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has really lead the way against using the UN to resolve crises.
“The destiny of more than 30 million Venezuelans resides in the will and the ability of its leaders to put the people’s human rights above any personal, political or ideological ambition,” Bachelet said… The UN human rights chief plans to set up an office in Venezuela to monitor the ongoing humanitarian crisis there. Michelle Bachelet said the dire situation must not be allowed to “deteriorate any further.”
There isn’t a quick solution to Venezuela. Bachelet’s visit was definitely a step in the right direction. It says to Maduro to stop lying to its people.
Perhaps, the next great example of misguided nationalism, comes from Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on imported Mexican goods. Of course, it never happened. Trump’s version of events is that he pressure Mexico to take action against illegals entering into Mexico by threatening tariffs. What really happened, is that Mexico offered nothing new, and these “concessions” were made months earlier. See links.
There are a number of great examples how this overblown nationalism theme has failed. I’ll leave the Iran drone episode to another blog, and move on to our constant attacks on Germany. In 2018, Trump took aim at Germany, for their cooperative agreement with Russia to build a second Baltic sea pipeline to supply Germany with natural gas. Germany was, of course, acting in their national interest. Trump understood that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US to the EU could decline once the pipeline is complete. See my blog: https://newsandviews.net/2018/08/08/pipeline-dollars-to-russia-are-not-acceptable/
Using natural gas to generate energy is better than using coal, The EU needs the Russian gas, is because the existing production from UK and Norwegian gas fields have been declining for years. So, Germany and other EU leaders are doing what is their national interest, and at this point, I guess, will just ignore Trump’s comments.
It’s fine for a politician to proclaim his love for his country. But, any real progress in international affairs must be multi-national, and with this, some of our goals would be compromised. I guess it’s comes down to a choice of achieving some progress with existing international institutions and agreements, or striking out alone, and coming up empty handed.
President Maduro blasted President Trump for all Venezuela’s problems. Of course, the US caused none of the problems. Now, for those looking for a scapegoat, they have Goldman Sachs and what is perceived to intervention by the US to support Maduro. It isn’t.
Venezuela’s people are suffering from a lack of food and medicine. The national oil company (PDVSA) is (or was) the lifeblood of the economy. As the political situation deteriorated, the bonds of PDVSA became worth less, because the possibility of non-payment (default) or partial payment on the bonds was very high. If this were an American company, and they defaulted on their bonds, the investors would seek relief through the bankruptcy courts. Generally, when immediate liabilities exceed the assets of the company, the company is likely to collapse. This is the situation with Venezuela with 17 billion in debts to pay in 2017 and only 10 billion dollars in reserves, Something has to give.
Goldman Sachs entered the fray by buying 2.8 billion dollars of PDVSA bonds on the secondary market. The bonds were bought at a huge discount (70%) to the market price. Why? Because the market wasn’t working, it was in free fall. Nobody had confidence in PDVSA, and that’s why the bonds sold at the huge discount. Investors always try to buy at the bottom, and sell at the top. That’s capitalism, and the only way to stay in the game.
Julio Borges, the opposition lawmaker who heads the National Assembly, wrote the CEO of Goldman Sachs, accusing him of making “a quick buck off the suffering of Venezuelan people.” Opposition leaders have threatened to cut off payments on the bonds, but this is likely just rhetoric. The covenants with the bonds prevent the issuer from favoring one bondholder over another, so paying just Goldman or JP Morgan or another holder would set off lawsuits. It would be like hanging from a cliff by a thread and then cutting the thread. The institutions that sold the bonds, were part of the government, so there was a gain of hard currency in exchange for IOU’s from Maduro’s government.
There were protests yesterday at the Goldman Sachs headquarters in NYC, with signs saying Goldman Sachs supports Maduro’s dictatorship. It is a dictatorship, and the people of Venezuela are suffering. You can’t get rid of a political leader through destroying the financial system. Without the flow of some hard currency, the country financial system either collapses, or PDVSA gets chopped up in small pieces and sold (by the way, this is not going to happen).
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