President Nicolas Maduro lost the election that occurred on July 28, 2024. Instead of accepting defeat, he withheld the official election tallies by district and had the National Electoral College declare false results showing he had won.
Mass protests erupted in August, and Maduro allowed police to arrest more than 2,400 people involved in organizing the protests. Nicolas Maduro controls both the legislature and judiciary. The country is in shambles as he tries to destroy any opposition by force through Operation Tun Tun (knock knock). According to the Miami Herald, “activists have denounced that a number of the agents taking part in repressing opposition figures and protesters have Cuban accents”, as “at least four passenger flights” have arrived from Cuba, according to local media.
An arrest warrant was issued for the real winner of the election, Edmund Gonzalez. Fortunately, he was able to escape to Spain. A summary of the international response in condemning Maduro is provided in the summary below.
The US is not standing by. It has sanctioned hundreds of government officials involved in falsification of election results and the crackdown of the opposition party. The sanctions involve seizing any assets the officials have in the US and denying them visas to enter the US.
So, Maduro is seeking vengeance against the US. It has arrested six individuals including three Americans in plotting to assassinate Maduro. I don’t know the evidence against them, but if the president can rig election results, he can certainly convict these individuals without any real evidence.
Maduro went on to claim this is a CIA plot without any evidence. See link below:
No CIA plot. Venezuela does not threaten the US. Maduro threatens democracy, and the rule of law in his country. He is attempting to rule the country by fear and corruption. He has destroyed the most important institutions in a democracy – an independent legislature and judiciary.
Maduro has a few friends, like Nicaragua, Cuba and Russia. These countries also have dictators.
“This year and to honor you all, to thank you all, I am going to decree the beginning of Christmas on October 1. Christmas arrived for everyone, in peace, joy and security!” he said.
Thank you President Maduro. This really happened today, September 4. The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference on Tuesday protested the unilateral acceleration of Christmas, warning that the holiday “is not to be used for political or propaganda goals.” “Christmas commences on December 25,” it said in a statement.
In Part I, I covered the seizure of Maduro’s plane and Maduro’s accusation of piracy. Nicolas Maduro stole democracy and destroyed the economy of Venezuela. He is the much larger pirate.
Both the judiciary and legislature fear Maduros. The arrest warrant for the Presidential candidate, Edmund Gonzalez is an attempt to silence the main opposition party, Plataforma Unitaria Democrática (PUD).
The first opposition candidate, Maria Carine Machado, was ruled ineligible to run as candidate by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, which is compliant with Maduros regime and suppression of democracy. Bit by bit, the populace has grown fearful of Maduro and his suppression of free speech.
On 1 August 2024, Machado published a letter in The Wall Street Journal, stating that she had gone in to hiding “fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen from the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro.”
It was a wonderful chance to revive democracy. But this chance is gone.
The Biden administration tried to strike a deal with Maduro, of freeing Americans held in Venezuela, and conducting fair elections in return for easing sanctions on the export of oil to US refineries, referred to as the Barbados agreement. A prisoner swap occurred in December 2023. Presidential elections were scheduled.
This new approach failed on April 17, 2024 when the Supreme Court ruled that Maria Carine Machado could not run for the presidency. The US re-imposed sanctions, but allowed the international oil companies to continue to operate (Chevron, Repsol and others) using waivers from sanctions. I think with the arrest warrant for Edmund Gonzalez, these waivers will soon be gone.
The article below describes their exodus to neighboring countries. It also describes the dynamics of a petrostate, where the country is very dependent on a single resource namely oil.Eight million Venezuelans have left the country. With a massively corrupt government, and little chance that dictator Maduro would do anything, but make things worse, it is no wonder that the brightest and most ambitious look to leave their country.
One excellent step, undertaken by the Department of Justice during the Trump administration, in year 2020, was to indict Nicolas Maduro and 14 other officials of narco-terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking and other criminal charges. In announcing the indictment, AG William Barr referred to Maduro as the former president of Venezuela, because on January 23, 2019, Juan Guaido was elected by the legislature as the interim president, and quickly recognized by over 60 countries. This didn’t last, and by 2021, EU countries and the US reluctantly recognized Nicolas Maduro as president.
“Today we announce criminal charges against Nicolás Maduro Moros for running, together with his top lieutenants, a narco-terrorism partnership with the FARC for the past 20 years,” said U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman.
FARC is a rebel group within Colombia, financed by drug trafficking, kidnapping and extortion. FARC still exists and given the dire situation in Venezuela, I have no doubt Maduro would have little to lose from collaborating with them in opioid drug distribution, particularly from Brazil to Europe.
The US has been on the side of Colombia in their decades long fight against FARC. Not only did they receive help from their South American neighbor, Venezuela, but Libya’s dictator Gaddafi was sending them millions of dollars until he was killed in the Libyan civil war in 2011.
Back to the current problems in Venezuela. Maduro can try to change Christmas to October, but really there is no Christmas in Venezuela, after he stole the election. There is reliable evidence of a rigged election:
Academics, news outlets and the opposition provided “strong evidence” according to The Guardian[11] to suggest that González won the election by a wide margin,[12][13] with the opposition releasing copies of official tally sheets collected by poll watchers from a majority of polling centers showing a landslide victory for González.
And he is prepared to lock up those who accuse him of stealing the election.
The US statement was very cautious, but this was a few days before the arrest warrant was issued for Edmund Gonzalez. Still, it supported the people of Venezuela instead of the “elected” president:
The United States applauds the courage and resilience of the millions of Venezuelans who voted and who continue to peacefully call for Maduro to acknowledge that Edmundo González Urrutia received the most votes.
Approximately 2,400 people have been arrested. On August 15, Maduro’s supporters in the National Assembly passed a law that grants the government broad powers to control and shut down nongovernmental organizations.
Venezuela produces approximately 800,000 barrels per day of heavy oil. They need to import a diluent (heavy naphtha) to pump the oil through pipelines and into tankers. So, I believe the US and other countries will increase sanctions against oil exports and naphtha imports.
Latest News is troubling
Venezuela has claimed that it is entitled to about 2/3 of Guyana, which I investigated in Feb 2024:
As reported on September 4, Guyana discovered 4.4 tons of cocaine in a very remote area of Guyana, close to the Venezuelan border. There was a landing strip constructed by the smugglers. Days earlier, a large fuel depot. Guyana is neither the source nor the destination of this cocaine, but transhipment point. From Guyana, the cocaine could be smuggled to Brazil, to be sold in Europe. Or perhaps destined for the US.
I am wondering if Maduro administration is involved in this activity. Mathews Ridge is definitely in the area that Maduro claims belongs to Venezuela.
I am following this story closely. A senior policeman from Guyana was connect to this drug bust.
Going forward
It would only be Christmas in Venezuela if Maduro left in October. The country will suffer, until there is real change in the country. The rest of the countries will absorb the Venezuelans escaping the chaos. I hope Venezuelans never give up fighting to restore their democracy.
Unfortunately, even with sanctions and condemnations of the rest of the world, Maduro will be a menace for his people, and many other countries.
Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, accused the United States of piracy, because we took his plane, which was undergoing maintenance in Dominican Republic. In particular, he attacked Attorney General Merrick Garland. It was obviously embarrassing to Maduro. Purchase of the plane was done through a “shell company” to get around US sanctions. Kudos go to all the agencies involved, particularly the State Department, which had to get the approval from Dominican Republic and the Department of Homeland Security under the leadership of Alejandro Mayorkas.
The accomplices to the repossession, the Dominican Republic, are likely very happy to accomodate the US as they have been absorbing the exodus from Venezuela for years. DR is not paradise, as it seems to take a beating with every hurricane, but it’s better than the repressive regime of Maduro.
The Department of Homeland Security also is to be congratulated. Excerpt from CNN link:
For years, US officials have sought to disrupt the flow of billions of dollars to the regime. Homeland Security Investigations — the second largest investigative agency in the federal government — has seized dozens of luxury vehicles, among other assets, heading to Venezuela.
The economic sanctions against Venezuela, have a long history. The U.S. has been concerned about Venezuelan narcotics trafficking since 2005 and its lack of cooperation in combatting terrorism since 2006.
Venezuela’s President Maduro looks for some legitimacy, but his government thrives on corruption, and the July 28 election is being widely condemned as fraudulent.
Following the announcement by Venezuelan authorities that Maduro had won the 28 July 2024 presidential election, condemned as fraudulent, Reuters reported on 21 August 2024 that the U.S. Treasury Department had submitted to the State Department a list of 60 individuals and their family members—particularly those from the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ)—for possible sanctions.
The Maduro regime refuses to release the official tallies of the election. I imagine there are some extremely brave Venezuelans who just will not sign off on false tallies.
So, the attorney general of Venezuela is having the opposition candidate thrown in jail. That’s what dictators do when they lose an election.
Venezuela’s attorney general’s office said on Monday a court has issued an arrest warrant for opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez, accusing him of conspiracy and other crimes amid a dispute over whether he or President Nicolas Maduro won a July election.
Venezuela’s economy is in shambles. Oil production is now well under a million barrels per day, about 1/3 of its production, a decade before. Oil is the life blood of the Venezuelan economy. In many countries, the rich get richer. In Venezuela, to become rich, they first have to kiss up to the president and his party. Corruption breeds corruption.
Unfortunately, it will get worse before it gets better. Maduro lost his plane. Venezuela lost its democracy and economy. Just who are the pirates?
In May 2015, Exxon-Mobil discovered oil offshore Guyana with the drilling and testing of Liza-1 well. Guyana was a Dutch colony from 1667-1815, then a British colony until independence in 1966. But, the Liza-1 well in the Stabroek block changed Guyana forever, with the prospect of billions pouring into Guyana. Exxon has a 45% interest in the block, Hess oil has a 30% interest and CNOOC has 25% interest. Guyana now has approximately 11 billion barrel equivalent of known oil resources. It is the fourth wealthiest country in the Americans on a per capita basis, with US, Canada and the Bahamas ranked as #1, 2 and 3.
A 630 mile Esequibo river divides Guyana into east and west sections. There are different spellings for this river including Essequibo river. Venezuela claims all land on the west side of the river which would include 15.8% of the population and approximately two-thirds of Guyana.
The border disputes has been going on for decades. Venezuela appears to be preparing for an attack. Exxon has stated that all their wells are located very south of the disputed Eastern territorial waters claimed by Venezuela. See link below:
Per link above, “Guyana has taken the issue to the World Court in the Netherlands for a definitive ruling, while Venezuela has said it prefers direct bilateral talks as the way forward. On Friday, the Venezuelan defense ministry accused Guyana of threatening the St. Vincent agreement by irresponsible actions and media deception, maintaining that the ’Essequibo is ours.'”
The hostile rhetoric from Venezuela’s Defense minister, Vladimir Padrino, is coupled with increased expansion of military bases along the Guyana-Venezuela border, in violation of agreements signed in December 2023. See the very detailed recent reporting from the Center for Strategic International Studies, which includes satellite photos detailing the buildup of bases and equipment.
At the same time, Exxon-Mobil are continuing field development projects, aimed at boosting oil production to 1.2 million barrels of oil per day by 2027 approximately double current production rates. These are deep water wells, which will produce to large FPSO’s or Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels. By 2027, current development plans call for seven vessels. This means no tank farms located onshore, making any attack of oil facilities themselves much more difficult as it would be observable from the sky.
My guess is Venezuela sees an initial ground assault, which puts them close to Georgetown, the capital.
The potential of an invasion by Venezuela is high. The pretext will be the government of Guyana, is illegally contracting with Exxon-Mobil, a US company, to steal Venezuela’s oil.
Definitely scary stuff. I’m worried Venezuela may find backers to fund its invasion, like Cuba or even worse, Russia.
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