Jury Duty

by Dave

I have served on a jury twice, one civil and the other criminal. My experience is pretty similar to others. It is a learning experience, because you only get a vague idea of what the defendant is being accused, until it is explained in detail at the very end of the trial.

The instructions are very clear. You must make your decision only based on the evidence presented in court and the law as explained by the judge. This is your job once you are seated as part of the jury. And it is weird, because in life, you make decisions based on your feelings at the time and often times, after talking to friends or family about different options.

In the jury room, you don’t know the people except as you learn from the permissible chatter of where to have lunch and other topics. A lady in the jury was a seamstress, and I asked her questions about curtains for my house.

Inside the jury room, the floor person is selected. In both cases, we did well, as they were good listeners. In the criminal case, we were divided on an important issue. We kept going back to the testimony given by both prosecution and defense witnesses. And slowly we got to a 8 in favor of not guilty and one who just couldn’t decide. That’s exactly when some of us, repeated why we should find the defendant not guilty.

The one hold out in the jury, was a young school teacher, who said she loved teaching, and just wanted to return to her kids. The last thing in the world she wanted to do was to go against the rest of us. She blurted out, “Well if that’s the way you all feel, I can go along with it.” At which point, which I will never forget, a Jamaican man spoke, and said to her, “You have to vote according to your conscious, because if you don’t, you will regret it the rest of your life.” And he was so right. How could this teacher, so focused on “her kids” go back to the classroom, knowing she caved in to the rest of us?

This Jamaican fellow was saying, in essence, a hung jury is fine. And I immediately spoke, saying we were in no hurry. Others chimed in with the same message. We were bound to make our decision based on what the judge instructed us to do. With that in mind, our conscience would be clear.

In the criminal case, we found the defendant guilty on two counts, and not guilty on one count. To this day, I believe we did the right thing, based on the evidence and the law as explained to us by the judge.

In every courtroom in the country, the same oaths are given, and jurors understand the seriousness of their obligation. They can’t discuss the case with anyone. They can’t listen to the news. There most difficult task one day, might have been, teaching school, or getting their car fixed. Now, they have to be in judgement of a total stranger.

I believe Donald Trump received a fair trial. Judge Juan Merchan is a very experienced and respected judge. He read the instructions a second time to the jury, as they requested. It takes a lot to convince 12 members of a jury that he is guilty. Trump has the right to appeal the verdict and this will take months. He can ask for an expediated appeal, if he is confident the verdict can be overturned. I don’t think he will do that. Many experts feel he has very little to base an appeal. He will instead use this verdict to cast himself as the victim of a partisan judicial system.

Stay tuned,

Dave

What happened to the other 3 criminal cases against Trump?

by Dave

The verdict on Trump’s hush money trial should be known soon. So what comes next?

The three other criminal cases are still very much alive. A court case can be dismissed by a judge for lack of evidence or other reasons. This has not happened.

The case which appeared to be most likely to go next, is the classified documents case. However, there are a long series of pre-trial motions including the legality of the FBI search which must be resolved first. It is obvious that Trump’s legal team wants to delay this cases as long as possible. Judge Cannon initially set a start date for the case, but then issued an order to “indefinitely delay” the case, pending resolution of the pre-trial motions.

The January 6 federal election obstruction case, also looked like a good successor to the Hush Money case, until the Supreme Court took up the Presidential Immunity and the Fischer cases. A decision in these cases is not expected until close to the end of the term of the Supreme Court in late June or early July. A Supreme Court opinion affirming that the ex-presidents have absolute immune from criminal prosecution will likely end the January 6 and exclude Trump as a defendant in the Georgia case.

The Supreme Court took up the Fischer case in September 2023, and has yet to render a verdict. Trump and many of the January 6 rioters are charged with a statute that they attempted to disrupt an official proceeding. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Fischer, this will allow many of the rioters in the January 6 violence to have their convictions overturned. It will also allow some of the charges against Trump to be dropped.

The laggard of the 3 cases is definitely the Georgia conspiracy trial. The case came to a halt after it was discovered that the District Attorney Fani Willis had an improper relation with the Nathan Wade, the lead attorney in this case. Judge McAfee decided to let Fani Willis continue to prosecute the case, but without Nathan Wade. His judgement is now being appealed. No trial date has been scheduled, and it is not likely to start before the elections.

In sum, Trump’s legal team has managed to successfully delay the start of the three criminal cases against him. Every motion to dismiss for lack of evidence or other reasons has failed. They are still very active cases.

So, what do all the court reporters and associated pundits do after the verdict is read, and explained about a hundred times on cable news? Go home? Hardly. Senator Bob Menendez and his wife are currently on trial for bribery. See link below:

Prosecutors build their case at bribery trial of Sen. Bob Menendez with emails and texts

Also, it is expected to the Supreme Court will rule late in June on both the Fischer case and Presidential Immunity. There’s nothing stopping them from ruling sooner.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Libertarian Party and their candidate, Chase Oliver

by Dave

The Libertarian Party candidate for president is Chase Oliver. His views are neither Republicans nor Democrat. In general, the Libertarian philosophy is to reduce government spending, and thus the immediate appeal of everyone paying less taxes. The battle cry of Libertarians is that we spend too much for what we don’t need. The problems of our country can be solved through private enterprise.

The problem comes in almost immediately on policies which would have terrible consequences, here and abroad. They would withdraw all military assistance to Ukraine, and pull out of NATO. Russia would be overjoyed and crush the democratically ruled Ukraine and then quickly send their forces into neighboring countries.

There has been slow progress on reducing emissions of greenhouse emissions, contributing to Climate Change. Economic incentives for new sources of renewable energy is essential, but Libertarians would seek to pull out of the Climate Change accords, and eliminate renewable energy incentives.

The Libertarians view of most problems outside of the US is simply, “It’s not our problem.” This is isolationism. The war in Gaza is now a humanitarian crisis, and Libertarians rigid philosophy would get in the way of finding practical solutions. Israel force the Gaza population living close to their border to flee to the southern area of Rafah. Many in refugee camps are approaching starvation, and Israel has been frustrating food shipments from Egypt. The US army and navy constructed the Trident pier, which will supplement the food shipments, by allowing trucks to pour into Gaza by sea.

I’ll post more on Rafah aid. It is great to see the US be part of the immediate humanitarian needs to the people of Rafah.

Stars and Stripes article, UN resumes transporting aid from US-built pier in Gaza

CBS Reports on Rafah Aid

Donald Trump and Robert Kennedy both wanted to be the candidate for the Libertarian Party. Of course, Donald Trump will be the presidential candidate for the Republican party, but being endorsed by the Libertarian party would be a nice boost to his popularity.

Libertarians oppose all trade tariffs, as they run counter to capitalism and free enterprise. This has been a tool used against both China for unfair trade practices and Russia for their invasion of Ukraine. So, it is easy to see why Libertarians eliminated Trump in the first round of voting.

In sum, the global problems require global solutions. Russian expansion under Putin is one of them. The rise of authoritarian regimes in many parts of the world, including Iran, North Korea, China and Russia need a united global response. And it requires huge funding.

Their Presidential candidate is Chase Oliver, who was affiliated with the Democratic Party until year 2009. Some issues, like gun ownership, is closer to Republican party platform. His pro-choice stance on abortion is more aligned with the Democrats.

Neither Robert Kennedy nor Chase Oliver has ever held elected office. However, Oliver has run for both the US House and Senate seats, and won only about 2% of the vote. Below is a brief biographical summary of Chase Oliver:

Chase Oliver

I have to admit, that I admire the conviction of the Libertarians, for rejecting the well financed candidates, Robert Kennedy and Donald Trump, and going their own way. They had a real convention, with each candidate lobbying for support. Chase Oliver was selected on the seventh round of voting.

I recommend not voting for any candidate who has never held any elected office. Or any candidate that is likely to be convicted of serious criminal offenses. This effectively eliminates Kennedy, Oliver and Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Judge Cannon – the alleged biased judge

by Dave

Judge Cannon is the assigned judge in the Classified Documents Case. So far, Judge Cannon rulings have not impressed legal experts (putting it mildly). Donald Trump’s strategy is to push the trial out to 2025. Any attempt to schedule it before the elections, and he will be shouting at his rallies that this is election interference. If he can win the election, he will find an Attorney General to dismiss the case.

In June 2023, the New York Times noted her lack of experience in legal trials. They noted she has presided over only 4 very short criminal cases which summed to 14 trial days.

NY Times, June 2023, Judge in Trump Documents Case Has Scant Criminal Trial Experience

Judge Scheindlin calls Judge Cannon insecure, without the confidence to identify frivolous motions, and deny them from the bench (without scheduling hearings). Ty Cobb who was Trump’s lawyer in the White House, also concurs that she is playing along with Trump’s delay game.

See CNN link.

The Hill, Ty Cobb rips Trump documents judge: ‘This case could have easily gotten to trial’

Ty Cobb’s biography is given at the end of this posting. Obviously, to be part of the White House legal counsel, when Donald Trump was facing impeachment, you have to have a great reputation.

Special Counsel Jack Smith has requested from Judge Cannon, a gag order to control wild falsehoods about the FBI’s orders to use deadly force with the intent of assassinating Donald Trump. See link:

CNN link: Retired Judge responds to gag order in Trump documents case

CNN link: Explanation of FBI Instructions on search warrants

She knows if she rules in favor of the prosecutor, Trump will immediately go on the attack, saying that Biden ordered him silent. That just isn’t true. The ruling has to come from Judge Cannon. Trump will not attack Judge Cannon, as he sees her as good for the defense.

It is very hard to delay a ruling as Trump continues to champion the “big lie” that the Mar-a-Lago search was an attempted hit job.

This is an evolving story. No trial date has been set, dozens of pre-trial motions have yet to be ruled on.

Stay tuned,

Dave

How to spin the Hush Money trial

by Dave

It’s Biden Show Trial. That was the latest spin from Alina Habba, Donald Trump’s legal spokesperson, regularly appearing on Fox News stations. The last time I heard her, she was on Sean Hannity’s show, and saying Donald Trump is being hauled into court, on exactly the same charges as in his business fraud case and the defamation case against E. Jean Carroll (two trials). Of course, the charges against Trump was in civil court, and completely different. But in each case, Trump lost and has posted bond for part of the money he owes, while these cases are being appealed.

The criminal case is being prosecuted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who has avoided making any public statement or even attending the court sessions. I take this as a sign of confidence that he will win this case. The federal government nor the Department of Justice is not involved in this case.

What DA Bragg and his team are doing, is making absolutely sure, the jury can put the pieces together, with the testimony they have heard and the documents submitted into evidence. It is likely to go to the jury next Thursday. The verdict of the jury should be respected, as they listened to all testimony in court.

Sean Hannity, Fox News commentator made a strange comment, that this was Representative Adam Schiff’s show trial. That’s pretty odd- but while we are at inventing conspiracy theories, why not pull in George Soros, Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates.

I found an even more bizarre comment from Representative Maria Salazar (I’m in her district) that this trial is like something that occurs in socialist countries. Her comments:

She proceeded to emphasize in both English and later in Spanish again how Hispanics are the largest and “most important” minority in the country. “This is a political circus that is only seen in Cuba, in Venezuela and Nicaragua,” she said. “It is a shame.” She emphasized the importance of fighting at the ballot box and making sure political persecution doesn’t continue.“ That’s why I’m telling to you Hispanics, wake up! What is happening is Marxism and we came to this country to not have this,” she said.

In autocratic governments, which I include Iran, Russia, China, Cuba and Venezuela, the country’s elites are above the law. In autocracies, the police would never raid the office of Michael Cohen, so both Cohen and Trump would never be charged. They would never search Joe Biden’s home or have a Special Counsel assign to investigate him, while he was president. Rep. Maria Salazar is campaigning on pretty stale anti-communist rhetoric.

In fact, in an autocratic government, the news media can be silenced or is run by the government. In a democracy, everyone is subject to the same laws and has the right to a fair trial. So, DA Alvin Bragg is doing what prosecutors are doing everyday enforcing the law, and not engaging in political persecution. That’s how democracies work.

The political circus continues, more on social media than in the courthouse. The latest one, was that the raid at Trump’s residence in Mar-a-Lago was intended to be an assassination attempt on Trump, because part of the instructions given to FBI agents, is the right to use deadly force. It was quickly dismissed when the standard instructions are read in full, which state that FBI agents may only use deadly force to protect themselves.

Donald Trump has already protested the entire trial, as a way to prevent him from campaigning. Court trials are never convenient to defendants. He will have his supporters already, to once again, denounce the Manhattan attorney’s office, as simply an extension of the federal courts, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and of course Joe Biden. You can pretty much add to the list, Nicolas Maduro and

Usually, defendants’ attorneys claim that the prosecution case will be completely destroyed once they can present the evidence that exonerates their client. The defense did put one witness on the stand, Robert Costello, who really could not refute the charges against Trump. His testimony may have helped rather than hurt the prosecution case, as Costello, was working for Rudy Giuliani, who has his own legal problems.

Most courtroom observers believe the case against Trump is strong. The court will reconvene Tuesday for closing arguments. They can be long, as each side will be very well prepared to summarize the case, with well chosen images of the most compelling evidence. Then, the judge will instruct the jury on the law and what they must decide.

If found guilty, Trump has the right to appeal the decision. Of course he will using campaign donations. And Trump will continue to play the victim of repression or political prosecution.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The Overfishing Case in the Supreme Court

by Dave

This is a landmark case. Like other Supreme Court cases, the problem might seem small, but the ramifications of this decision could affect our government’s ability to enforce many regulations, including the Food and Drug Administration. The case is called “Relentless v. Department of Commerce” and I hope the Supreme Court will rule against Relentless. Just so you know my feelings!

The Supreme Court’s term is ending in late June or early July, and they always leave the most important cases to the end of the term. As usual, I focus more on the practical aspects of what happens as a result of the ruling, rather than the legal arguments.

— The Case

Fishing is a huge business, and there is always a temptation to overfish, which is to exceed the established quotas for a particular species of fish. It’s simply a risk verses reward situation. It is also a classic case of the regulators (US Government, National Marine Fisheries Service) verses the regulatees (Herring industry).

The problem is undisputable- when more fish are taken than the spawning rate, the population declines. There are multiple solutions, but enforcement is frustratingly difficult given the many species of fish. So the agency decided to enforce quotas by requiring trained inspectors onboard the fishing vessels and pay $700 per day for their services.

I am not sure if this policy is working, but that isn’t for the Supreme Court to decide. I can understand the pushback from the vessels’ owners, particularly the smaller business owners, who claim that the $700/day can make it unprofitable to fish. The Relentless corporation has brought this legal challenge to the Supreme Court as an overreach of a government agency in making rules without the legislature empowering the agency specifically to do so.

I can also imagine how difficult it must be, for fish inspectors to be checking the haul of vessels at the dock, when they are all coming in together. So, putting the inspectors on the vessels made sense.

— The Chevron Deference and Politics

The Chevron deference is part of a ruling, in which the court opined that when ambiguity exists in the enforcement of a law, the court should defer to the judgement of the regulatory agency and just look at whether this is a reasonable interpretation of the agency’s authority. It is based on pragmatism, that the regulatory agency has a better understanding of the problems and potential remedies. It was part of a 1984 Supreme Court decision, and has been narrowed in scope by other court decisions. An excellent summary provided by Cornell law school:

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/chevron_deference

I suspect philosophical/ political perspective will have a lot to do with this ruling. The Supreme Court is split, 6 conservatives and 3 liberals, so this might be a win for conservatives. Roberts may join with the liberals. but that won’t be enough to carry the day. Maybe Barrett?

Supreme Court likely to discard Chevron

NY Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/us/supreme-court-chevron-case.html

As I stated at the onset, I hope Relentless loses. The Chevron deference, I believe, is necessary to keep politics out of enforcing unpopular rules. And, the consequences of invalidating the Chevron doctrine will extend far beyond our government’s attempt to regulate the fishing industry. Oral arguments in January indicated Brown, Kagan and Sotomayor will not invalidate the Chevron deference. Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh seem to be building a case against this doctrine, as being against free enterprise.

If Relentless wins, it will weaken the hand of government agency to accomplish their areas of responsibility, and in the long term, be bad for the general public. The enforcement of rules is often very difficult, as the risk to reward ratio changes, and owners of businesses see compliance as an option rather than a responsibility.

Yes, there are tons of regulations, but I think in the long run, the Chevron deference benefits everyone. We import 90% of our fish, and if we can’t control overfishing, we have no seat at the table when others are busy diminishing the populations of fish. Same is true for many other areas, such as the environment (yes including climate change), water and air pollution, and safe food and drugs. We depend, like it or not, on the expertise of agencies.

This is an election year, and Donald Trump will champion himself as a great regulation chopper, which will lead to new prosperity. It’s a nice populist theme, particularly for a real estate mogul, with huge legal problems. Perhaps, it isn’t MAGA, but MMGA, or Make Me Great Again.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Other Links related to Overfishing:

New Civil Liberties Alliance: Relentless v. Department of Commerce

Note: The New Civil Liberties Alliance is counsel for the Relentless defendants.

Environmental defense Fund, Overfishing

Playing the delay game

by Dave

An innocent defendant pushes a prosecutor to have a speedy trial and get rid of the allegations of wrong doing. Trump is guilty of taking classified documents and hiding them in unsecure locations and then when it was requested they be returned, moving them around his residence/club at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. He does not want his day in court.

Donald Trump game plan is simple – delay the classified documents case until after the election, and then have the Justice Department dismiss the case. His accomplice in this delay game is a biased judge by the name of Aileen Cannon, who is not ruling on the pre-trial motions, but is scheduling hearings in June, and will drag out the start of the trial just as long as possible.

I have read through a dozen or so, opinions on Judge Cannon’s order of May 7, 2024. They all conclude that the judge is simply siding with Trump on every issue. Here’s part of the Washington Post opinion:

“Of the indictments Trump faces, the case in Florida was often regarded as the most clear-cut. And then it was assigned to Judge Aileen M. Cannon.”

Washington Post Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/08/judge-trump-classified-documents-trial-date/

What scares both Donald Trump and Judge Cannon is the speed at which the Hush Money case is proceeding. It means that in late May, or early June, the Hush Money case will conclude. Then, Trump has no real basis for delaying the start of Classified Documents case.

The sole excuse not to start the trial at the conclusion of the Hush Money case will be Judge Cannon’s acquiescence to schedule hearings in Trump’s many motions. In this way, she does not have to rule until after the hearing. So, Trump wins in the delay game.

CNN Link: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/politics/judge-postpones-trump-classified-documents-trial/index.html

Legal experts are able to quickly identify frivolous motions to dismiss, which can be ruled on without a hearing. See CNN link below:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/politics/video/trump-classified-documents-trial-postponed-judge-scheindlin-sitroom-digvid

So, it will be a long and frustrating road for the Special Prosecutor. The January 6 case is on hold pending the Supreme Court judgement. So, none of the three other cases pending against Trump has a trial date set.

Equal justice for all? Not in Judge Cannon’s court room.

Stay tuned,

Dave

judge-aileen-cannon-may-7-orderDownload

Intelligence Surveillance and FISA 702

by Dave

The US Congress approved an extension of FISA 702 for a period of two years and it was signed into law on April 20, 2024. What is remarkable about this issue, is that both very notable Republicans and Democrats tried to defeat this bill, in both the House and Senate, and they failed. Trump wanted it either the bill voted down or made much less effective, by requiring warrants. FISA stands for Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act, which was first enacted in 1978 and has been amended multiple times.

I believe the Congress and President Biden made the right decision, but the two year extension is far too short, because the threats from outside the US are not going to be gone in two years. ‘ If Trump is elected, he will not allow the act to renew. See section on Politics at the end.

Details of Section 702 can be found in Department of National Intelligence brochure:

https://www.dni.gov/files/icotr/Section702-Basics-Infographic.pdf

(1) The Centralists verses Right and Left Ideologies.

There was both bipartisan support and against this bill in the House and Senate. Ultimately the bill passed after the extension was shortened to 2 years. This extension is based more on pragmatism than principle. Through provisions in the bill, the intelligence community can conduct electronic communication surveillance, while at the same time, there are some restrictions of what agents can do through the internal approval process.

Attorney General Merrick Garland praised the reauthorization and reiterated how “indispensable” the tool is to the Justice Department.

“This reauthorization of Section 702 gives the U.S. the authority to continue to collect foreign intelligence information about non-U.S. persons located outside the United States, while at the same time codifying important reforms the Justice Department has adopted to ensure the protection of Americans’ privacy and civil liberties,” Garland said in a statement Saturday.

NBC News, Senate passes bill renewing key FISA surveillance power moments after it expires

Intelligence agents have far more liberties to conduct surveillance if the targets are outside of the US. I give George Bush credit for recognizing that after the September 11, 2001 attack, we had to either get a lot smarter and coordinated in our fight against terrorists or live in fear of them. It is a difficult balancing act – giving the intelligence agencies the tools they need, and preserving individual’s civil liberties.

(2) We already have the data- now we can query it

FBI Release: https://www.fbi.gov/news/speeches/director-wrays-remarks-at-the-aba-standing-committee-on-law-and-national-security

See the above link. Per the DNI link:

“Querying information the intelligence community already possesses, which is less intrusive than other investigative techniques, can rule out potential subjects and eliminate the need for further investigation.”

So, the tactic is right for finding the proverbial “needle in the haystack.” Cast a large net, do it quickly and cull out only what appears to be worthy of more follow-up measures. Often times, it is not terrorist threats that are discovered, but money laundering and drug smuggling activities. Cyber crimes will likely be on the rise, and this can be particularly destructive if hackers gain access to vital information.

What the Justice Department is going after, is highly organized and well financed crime, supported by governments and organizations hostile to the US.

(3) Why a pressing need today?

I am very concerned about election interference from China and Russia in the 2024 election. Six swing states* will likely determine our next president. Control of the House and Senate may be determined in the next election. The ads on social media and television need massive funding. See swing state list in Note 1.

Drugs are coming into the US, not carried by illegal immigrants, but smuggled in through trucks, ships and planes. Sometimes it a case of following the money to catch the smugglers.

And terrorist attacks are real, from many parts of the world. ISIS claimed responsibility for the March 22 bombing in a concert hall in Moscow, which killed 130 concertgoers. See Note 2.

(4) Politics

The support and opposition to Section 702 surveillance were bipartisan, which was pretty unusual to see. MAGA Republicans with almost blind allegiance to Donald Trump and the big lie than the election was stolen, like Representatives Andy Biggs, voted against the bill or sought to amend it.

“Prior to passing the bill, the House voted 212-212 on bipartisan amendment proposed by a rare left-right coalition designed to rein in the government’s use of warrantless surveillance of U.S. persons. The tie vote meant the amendment failed. In addition to Biggs, it was championed by Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash.; Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y.; Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif.; Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio; and Davidson.”

NBC News: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-renew-fisa-spying-tool-earlier-republican-revolt-rcna147557

Rep. Matt Gaetz, conservative Republican from Florida, explained how passing a bad bill, could help Donald Trump, because if elected, he would have the opportunity to veto its renewal. “Now President Trump gets an at bat to fix the system that victimized him more than any other American.”

The term “times at bat” comes from baseball, which counts how many times a batter is up against a pitcher.

(5) Trump playing the victim card in the FISA debate

Trump likes to be in control of the narrative. Truth is unimportant, except as a lead in to his lies. Russia did attempt to interfere in the 2016 election, a fact Trump refuses to accept, because it would diminish his winning in a fair election. So, this is why he will never renew the Section 702. He and other politicians might need help from unsavory sources in the future. Democrats included, like Senator Bob Menendez included in these activities. Per the NY Times (see link below):

Mr. McMaster did not offer an explanation of why Mr. Trump appeared to be so deferential to Mr. Putin. But he did say that the president “conflates” three separate issues: whether Russia interfered in the election four years ago, whether that meddling was on Mr. Trump’s behalf, as the intelligence agencies concluded, and whether those efforts affected the outcome.

NY Times, McMaster, Mostly Silent Until Now, Says Trump Is ‘Aiding and Abetting Putin’s Efforts’

FISA surveillance using warrants did play a role in the Russian interference investigation. See note 3.

Summary:

I am glad the bill was passed into law. I wish the FBI and CIA success in finding the drug smugglers, money launderers, and those who collude with foreign agents to affect our elections. Cyber crime with organization expert in hacking can undermine everyone’s security. And perhaps they can early on, identify would be terrorists and begin monitoring them before they can create violence wherever they find an opportunity – like a concert hall.

Be pragmatic! Governments around the world recognize how interconnected our world has become. We should be aware that “what goes around, comes around.” It is a very short distance between a bomb going off in Moscow, or Paris or in any place in the US.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Notes:

(1) Swing states: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI. Some would include NC.

    (2) The Moscow Attack Showed Terrorism Is Asia’s Problem Now
    Increased geopolitical rivalry is allowing extremist groups to thrive—and threaten everyone.

    (3) FISA warrants did play a role in the Russian interference investigation. A FISA warrant was issued in 2016 on Carter Page, an advisor to the campaign in foreign affairs, to wiretap his calls. A lot of controversy surrounded how easy it was to renew a warrant after the initial 90 days ended. The DOJ determined that the last two renewals were invalid. Section 702 concerns surveillance without warrants, which is legal for communication with foreign nationals.

    Finally, the Hush Money case begins this Monday

    by Dave

    Opening arguments lay out the basics of the case for the jury from both the prosecution and defense side. Of course, from the defense side, Trump is innocent. The jury will hear two months of evidence and then decide.

    So, everyone has their job. The judge, prosecutors and defense lawyers know their job. But the jury doesn’t unless they have served on a jury before. It is basically weird. They are the deciders, but they can’t solve this problem like any others. They can’t go into Google. They can’t talk it over with the others in the jury. They can’t talk to their spouse or neighbors. Lots of can nots.

    And they are not going to know what laws Trump is accused of breaking until the very end. My experience on juries, is in general, that the people act very conscientiously, they respect each other, and obey the orders of the judge. Some are more engaged than others, but they all play by the rules.

    So, the system is working. Hardly headline news, but it should be. The delay tactics of Trump failed. Every defendant has a right to a speedy trial so they can clear their names. In this case, Trump wants just the opposite, namely indefinite postponements. If he can slow down this trial, the ones that follow, particularly the Classified Documents case, will also get pushed back.

    Judge Cannon, in the Classified Documents case, has now ruled against Trump on a motion to dismiss. Apparently, there are many more motions pending, and she’ll have to rule on these soon. If she can do this expeditiously, then just perhaps in July, the documents case can begin. Trump’s team is trying to use the Hush Money case, and the need for his lawyers in NY, to further push back the Document case. No start date has been scheduled.

    The Jan 6 case is awaiting a decision on the immunity claim by Trump. Oral arguments will be held in the Supreme Court. This will be interesting, because the appellate court ruled against him, and legal experts do not expect this will go well for Trump on Thursday.

    Court reporters are will get no break, as they go from Manhattan, NY to Ft. Pierce, FL (Documents Case), Atlanta, GA (Election Conspiracy Case) and Washington, DC (Jan 6 election interference case).

    Stay tuned,

    Dave

    The “Get Out of Jail Free” Card

    by Dave

    Trump would like to have this card, but he needs the acceptance of the Supreme Court. We will know around the end of June or perhaps sooner, if they accept or deny his appeal for absolute immunity for actions taken as President.

    The Special Counsel, Jack Smith, has submitted his brief of why Trump’s appeal should be denied. He states that there is no basis for immunity based on the history, text, and structure of the Constitution. Certainly, his supporters would like to see the Supreme Court affirm his appeal, so criminal cases involving January 6 (Georgia case and Federal January 6 case) could just disappear.

    Most legal experts believe that the appeal will be denied. If Trump’s appeal is denied, the Jan 6 trial could begin in July.

    Yet, this immunity case is for a former President. If Trump succeeds in being re-elected, he can claim immunity that he once enjoyed as a sitting President. At the same time, he will install loyalists in the Department of Justice, who will not only dismiss the charges against him, but use the DOJ to launch partisan attacks on Democrats including Hunter Biden.

    This is the retribution plan, and it should never be allowed. It is a basic misunderstanding of government, that when a president yells “jump”, the only response is “How high?”. Yes, CEO’s can demand loyalty from their employees, but government, especially the DOJ must operate independently when investigating criminal matters involving other prior politicians.

    So, I believe both the Supreme Court and the electorate must do their jobs to ensure accountability. You can not elect someone with 91 pending criminal charges as head of the executive branch with the obligation to faithfully enforce the laws of our country. One can not pick and choose which laws to obey.

    With absolute immunity, while every law applies to the rest of us, Trump can do what he wants. Seems pretty much like a monarch. Except of course he is no longer president, and the electorate should not return him to power. His next term will be far worse.

    Stay tuned,

    Dave

    Globalism and Radical Republicans

    by Dave

    Global problems need global solutions. NATO is a real solution to Russian expansion under Putin. Ukraine must not be the next victim to Russia’s invasion. Climate change is real. The hard evidence is many more extreme weather events. We’ve seen the melting of the polar caps and the rise in sea levels. Nuclear disarmament is critical to world peace. Again, global solutions can work. Unilateral actions or no actions will fail.

    Global solutions are very difficult to accomplish. No one country will be given credit, if Putin gives up in Ukraine. It is not the Republican party in general that wants to cut aid to Ukraine, but a small group of radical Republicans, who put political gain ahead of what’s best for the country and the world.

    With this small group of Republicans, there is no room for compromise. The opinion below, singles out Marjorie Taylor Greene, as the leader in the anti-Ukraine aid campaign. But, the driving force is a disengagement into world affairs, at a time where alliances are critical.

    The best way to defeat Rep. Greene and others is at the polls in November.

    See CNN link: Opinion: If Marjorie Taylor Greene wins on Ukraine aid, we’re headed for dangerous territory

    Stay tuned,

    Dave

    Hush Money Trial to begin, other court case issues to be resolved slowly

    by Dave

    On April 15, the Hush Money case begins. Finally Trump’s delay schemes got him only an extra 20 days. I’m glad. Could end in mid June. The judge will not put up with other ways to delay this case. My prediction – Trump will be sentenced to jail time, but this will be stayed pending his appeal. The other cases have definitely gotten bogged down.

    The Supreme Court knows they control the timing of the federal January 6 trial with the presidential immunity case and they don’t seem anxious to fast track this case. The court traditionally releases the most controversial decision at the end of the term, so it could be decided from June to early July. Almost every legal expert expects Trump to lose on this one.

    Trump lawyers are filing dozens of pre-trial motions in the Classified Documents case. The Special Counsel suggested a July start date, while Trump’s team hopes to push this off to next year, obviously in hopes that Trump would win the Presidency. The Special Counsel is especially concerned that Judge Cannon will allow the list of witnesses to be made public before trial. Also they object to needless hearings related to dismissal of the case.

    They [Trump’s lawyers] want the judge to hold a hearing to force the government to produce evidence of what they say is a “selective and vindictive” prosecution. Prosecutors say no such evidence exists and that it would be unprecedented to grant a hearing in the matter.

    See link: Trump’s trial over classified documents in Florida could start as soon as this summer

    Many legal experts, are critical of Judge Cannon’s decisions, saying they are not legally sound and result in complicating and delaying the trial. See link below:

    Salon: “Very, very troubling”: Ex-judges worry Judge Cannon’s pro-Trump rulings “clearly suggest bias”

    The Special Counsel can appeal a wrong decision, but this can take months.

    There are both legal and practical aspects in some court decisions. I can understand the practical aspects a lot easier. I stated from a practical perspective, the voters decide elections, not the courts. So, I was glad the Supreme Court decided in Trump’s favor on the disqualification case.

    The second one happened yesterday, with the bond in the civil business fraud case being lowered to 175 million from 464 million dollars, and giving Trump an extra 10 days to secure the bond. The appellate court did not explain their reasoning, but since the entire case is under review by the appellate court, it seemed unnecessary to force liquidation of Trump’s assets at this point. I was glad because Trump could not whine about how they [the DA’s office] were stealing his hotels.

    So, New York Appellate Court was nice to Trump on the bond issue. Didn’t help, as he made some comments about how terrible NY was treating him, as follows:

    Fact check: Trump tells ‘mind-bogglingly nonsensical’ story about the New York Stock Exchange

    Now, once the Appellate Court rules, then it is a new ball game. Trump must pay up or his assets can be liquidated. And if it comes to this, it is going to be slow and messy.

    The Georgia case is also going slow, as Judge McAfee tossed out 6 charges, as not being fully explained in legal terms. DA Willis can file briefs to get the charges restored. No trial date has been scheduled.

    Stay tuned,

    Dave

    Biden is the right choice for democracy

    by Dave

    This election is extremely important. All candidates talk big about democracy and the rule of law. But, Trump proved to the American people he only believes in democracy when he wins an election. The “Stop the Steal” effort by Trump and his supporters, post 2020 election, is a sad chapter in our history. Donald Trump encouraged the mob that ransacked our capitol, because he thought he was more important than the country.

    “Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States … President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution.” Mike Pence, Former Vice President of the United States.

    “He will always put his own interests and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interest.” Bill Barr, former Attorney General under Trump.

    Trump urged his supporters to leave the Capitol only after hours of rioting, dozens of security police had been injured and five people had died. It could have been far worse. There was a huge arsenal of weapons, stored in a hotel room in Virginia, by the Oath Keepers. Their leader made the decision not to bring these weapons to the Capitol as it could tip off the police on his plans. We were perilously close to a massacre of elected officials in our Capitol. Number 1 target would have been Mike Pence, because he was in charge of counting the votes, as he was obligated to do as Vice President and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

    The core group of attackers planned, by any means possible, to overcome the security forces and break the windows and doors of the Capitol building. By their testimony and Trump’s promise that he would join them on the morning before the attack, they felt like they were part of Trump’s army, to restore their leader to power. I’ve seen this before in other countries, where leaders or candidates for office blatantly disregard the rule of law, but never in my country.

    Link: Capitol Rioters Were Armed to the Teeth and Ready for War

    Trump would not condemn the attackers. He called those who participated in January 6 as patriots. To me, the real patriots were the Capitol police and many were injured as they tried to protect the elected officials.

    In fact, Trump has stated he would pardon many of the rioters if re-elected.

    Link: Trump vows to ‘free’ Jan. 6 defendants as one of his first acts if elect (Story updated March 12, 2024)

    It is consistent with his claim that the US Department of Justice, under Biden, is corrupt. Of course, in the chaos of the riot, the investigation by the FBI of the many individuals responsible took time. Credit should be given to the many individual agents who poured over videos both outside and inside the Capitol.

    A lot of credit goes to FBI Director, Chris Wray, a Trump appointee. In so many areas, ranging from cybercrimes to combating the influx of drugs, Director Wray has done an excellent job.

    If elected, I think Trump will likely fire FBI Director Wray, because the FBI conducted a court approved search of Mar-a-Lago. He’ll find some pre-text to fire Wray. But the search was very personal.

    Link: The GOP’s war on the FBI is paying off for Trump

    Take Trump seriously. He is looking for revenge.

    “The depths of his dishonesty is just astonishing to me… He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.” John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security and White House Chief of Staff

    Biden will keep our country strong, by his leadership. Remember, Christopher Wray was Trump’s choice to lead the FBI for the next 10 years. And Biden kept him on. Democracy is built around a peaceful transfer of power through elections. The people at the ballot box decide, not a mob attacking the Capitol.

    Stay tuned,

    Dave

    Hush Money Trial: A case destined for a guilty verdict

    by Dave

    It will begin on March 25, 2024. The legal name is The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump. The indictment from the Grand Jury lists 34 counts of falsifying business records by Trump. Trump will be found guilty, probably in early May. The exact charges might not be known until the end of the trial and this is the difference between paying a fine or serving time. No matter what, it will be appealed.

    Trump will have his defenders. It is more of a campaign to minimize the damage and deflect this away from Trump.

    First, commentators on Fox News and conservative media sites will explain how during a campaign, funds can get misappropriated, and generally this is handled by a fine. Also, the amount of money, $130,000 to Stormy Daniels, is next to nothing during a campaign doling out millions of dollars every day. Strategy #1 is this is selective prosecution for a minor campaign funds misappropriation and grossly overcharging Trump.

    PR strategy #2 will be the conspiracy angle, for those particularly gullible. Deflect, deflect and lie. Biden, DOJ and yes, George Soros, are involved in a scheme to stop Trump from winning the election. These accusations are nearly two years old, and have been debunked by just about every fact checking site. I won’t go into details, because it is nonsense. Like all conspiracy stuff, they take the 1% that is true, and build on. The old game of connecting the dots that don’t exist. Those who want to find out what’s not true, what “they” say on Facebook, Youtube, etc, you can search Soros, Mathew Colangelo, DOJ and Hush Money case and get a ton of baseless conspiracy stuff.

    I note that George Soros is 93 years old philanthropist, who donates money for worthwhile causes. He has never donated a cent to Alvin Bragg, but charitable organizations which he helps have. Who will conspiracy theorists blame for the world’s problems, if he passes. Seriously!

    On the legal front, Trump’s team will vigorously argue that this should be a misdemeanor charge, not a felony. Legal experts acknowledge they may prevail on this argument, so Trump just pays a fine. But, if not, then they will appeal. That’s when this case becomes really interesting.

    There is also the gag order issue, which should be resolved by the judge very soon. Other minor legal issues involve questions that can be asked of jurors to identify bias towards Trump. This will all be resolved by the judge.

    — Is it a felony or misdemeanor?

    Every time a payment was made, it was recorded as a legal expense to the campaign. The indictment alleges Donald Trump was aware of these false entries, so he is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records. But if it is a misdemeanor, there will be just fines; no jail time. See explanation from AP News (link provided at bottom):

    “Falsifying business records can be charged as a misdemeanor, a lower-level crime that would not normally result in prison time. It rises to a felony — which carries up to four years behind bars — if there was an intent to commit or conceal a second crime. Bragg said his office routinely brings felony false business records cases.

    In Trump’s case, Bragg said the phony business records were designed to cover up alleged state and federal election law violations. The $130,000 payment to Daniels exceeded the federal cap on campaign contributions, Bragg said. He also cited a New York election law that makes it a crime to promote a candidate by unlawful means.

    “That is what this defendant did when he falsified business records in order to conceal unlawful efforts to promote his candidacy, and that is why we are here,” one of the case prosecutors, Chris Conroy, told the judge Tuesday.”

    Wikipedia has similar comments:

    “The indictment raises novel and complex legal issues. Legal experts contacted by the New York Times said that the indictment combines business records charges with state election law in a way that had never previously been done in a case involving a federal campaign.”

    The decision of whether to charge Trump with committing misdemeanors or felonies will be up to the judge. Legal experts have stated that this may be done at the end of the trial. If Trump is found guilty of felonies, he will appeal.

    Links:

    AP Analysis: Trump hush money case raises thorny legal issues

    Wikipedia: Prosecution of Trump in New York

    Wikipedia usually updates their articles as the trial progresses.

    — Bottom Line

    DA Alvin Bragg is doing his job of enforcing the laws of New York. No one is above the law. Not Trump nor Bob Menendez, a Democrat. In these cases, those accused have plenty of resources, to hire the finest defense lawyers. They have the right to appeal.

    And it is entirely possible, after all the evidence is heard, the charge is reduced to a misdemeanor if DA Bragg fails to make the case of a felony. So, I can see only two outcomes, guilty of 34 misdemeanors and Trump pays a fine, and guilty of 34 felonies, and Trump appeals his sentence. I don’t see any chance of not guilty.

    Stay tuned,

    Dave

    Trump Legal Issues Update including Calendar Wars

    by Dave

    The big question is what comes after the Hush Money case. I call this “calendar wars.” I really tried to adhere to the axiom, “Everything should be made as simple as possible but not simpler” often attributed to Einstein.

    — Calendar Wars

    The Hush Money trial starts March 25 and may go through mid-May, which would allow another criminal trial to begin. It is unclear which one – Documents or Jan 6 case. Trump’s team would like both delayed to post-November, but they could opt to accept a pre-election start date for the Documents case so they can push the more damaging Jan 6 case to after the election. For political purposes, always the less embarrassing case goes first. The Jan 6 case could be put on hold by the Supreme Court.

    It is also been suggested by commentators that Judge Cannon might be more lenient to Trump’s delaying tactics with frivolous motions than Judge Chutkan. It looks hopeless that the Georgia trial case will start prior to 2025. But, we shall see.

    Hush Money Case: There will be a lot of commentary connected with this trial. Republicans will certainly down play this case, claiming it should be a misdemeanor charge, rather than a felony.

    Prosecutors have asked Judge Juan Merchan to order a partial gag order barring Trump from making or directing others to make public statements about potential witnesses, prospective jurors and members of the prosecution team and their families other than District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Trump can blast away at DA Bragg all he wants and has already made a lot of false statements. See link below:

    CNN Fact check: Trump makes false and evidence-free claims at Manhattan courthouse

    DA Alvin Bragg has described the case in terms of 2016 election interference, which I believe is correct. The secret payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal were done, so his election prospects wouldn’t be hurt by knowledge of these affairs. His reported sexual encounter with Stormy Daniels (Stefanie Clifford) was just one time. He suggested to her, that she could be on his show, “Celebrity Apprentice” but this never happened. She claims he tried to keep the affair alive but she rejected this. The affair with Karen McDougal lasted 9 months.

    There has been a lot of contentious issues of who should be allowed to testify and what evidence is material to this case. Donald Trump will absolutely appeal any conviction and these pre-trial motions will be a part of his appeal. See link:

    Link: Trump seeks to block Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen from testifying at NY hush money trial

    Jan 6 Case: Trump’s ex-presidential immunity case is now pending in the Supreme Court. What his lawyers want, is to put a hold on the start of the January 6 election obstruction trial. The Special Counsel urges the Supreme Court to either allow the Appellate court ruling to stand, and begin trial as soon as possible or to hear the case on a highly expediated schedule.

    Most experts predict that Trump is destined to lose the case, so the issue is whether he can delay it to after the election. So far, no decision. Conservatives on the bench can hand Trump a victory, simply by taking up the case, and then pushing it to the next term to be decided. The three liberals probably have heard enough on this subject, and would be ready to rule against Trump immediately.

    Documents case: Pre-trial motions keep going back and forth. Judge Cannon ordered documents unsealed so Trump’s team could know potential witnesses that could be called by the prosecution. Smith request a reconsideration of the order, and he may file an appeal if Cannon doesn’t reverse herself. Legal experts have generally sided with the prosecution, as it gives Trump’s team time to find ways of intimidating witnesses. Trump is well known for his attacks on just about everyone involved in a case against him.

    Trump also filed a lengthy “motion to dismiss” brief, and Cannon wants separate briefs for each issue. The Rolling Stone’s lyric, “Makes a grown man cry” is probably resonating in the Smith’s office as Judge Cannon seems reluctant to rule against Trump. Presidential immunity is part of the motion to dismiss, and I’m thinking it is the quickest way to put the whole trial on hold. As discussed in “Calendar Wars” a lengthy hold on the Documents case could disadvantage Trump, as the more damaging January 6 case becomes the likely successor to the Hush Money case.

    Judge Cannon has scheduled a hearing on March 1 to review delays in the trial date. The Special Counsel would like the trial to begin on May 20, 2024, but legal experts suggest this date is unrealistic.

    Link: The Trump Docket: Jack Smith and Mar-a-Lago judge set for major showdown over protecting witnesses in documents case

    Georgia Election Interference Case: We will know soon if DA Fani Willis affair with Nathan Wade will end in her disqualification. The entire conspiracy case disappears at this point! Just as I was ready to post this, Judge McAfee ordered Terrence Bradley, who was Nathan Wade’s partner and divorce lawyer, to answer additional questions, ruling that attorney-client privileges do not extend as far as he allowed before in the hearing.

    Michael Roman and several other co-defendants in Trump’s election case are seeking Willis’ disqualification from the case on the grounds that she benefited financially from a “personal, romantic relationship” with Wade, who she hired for the case.

    Judge has scheduled a hearing on March 1 on the Willis/Wade romance. I am hoping this does not derail the case.

    No date has been set for conspiracy trial. It will be televised and a bit of a circus with all the lawyers defending 15 defendants. For this reason, I believe the Jan 6 federal case is, with the sole focus on obstruction of justice and interference in election proceedings by Trump, is still the most damaging. If Trump gets re-elected, the January 6 case will be sure be dismissed but the Georgia case will continue.

    This sums up the four criminal cases. In related cases, Trump needs to come up with bond for the civil cases, which have been appealed. This is a very fluid story of what is possible. There’s the Colorado Disqualification case in the Supreme Court, which may rule in Trump’s favor. I would like this, as voters not judges, need to decide elections.

    Stay tuned,

    Dave