elections

Swing States to determine the election

by Dave

As of Nov 4, I have reviewed the forecasts from www.270towin.com and electorate-vote.com websites.

Two forecasts (Cook’s Report and Inside Elections ) show 93 toss-up EV’s so it is not possible to know who might win the election.

Arizona (11 EV’s) Tilts Republican based on 8 websites and NYT poll.

Based on websites: 538 Model, Fox News, Split Ticket, JHK forecast, Race to WH, fivethirtyeight, electoral-vote, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, New York Times/Sienna Polls (Trump +4)

Georgia (16 EV’s) Slight Tilt- Rep, 4 sites, 1 contrary site tilt – Dem

Based on websites: 538 model, Sabato’s, Race to White House, Electoral-vote

Contrary opinion, Tilt Democratic, based on cnalysis

Michigan (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 5 sites,

Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, Split Ticket, Race to WH, Electorate-vote

Wisconsin (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 4 sites

Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, cnalysis, electorate-vote

This leaves Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as races too close to call.

Note for Trump to win, he needs to pick up 24 more EV’s. If he can win only NC(16) + NV(6), it is not enough. Trump must win PA. Harris does not have to win PA, but if she loses PA, then she must win NC(16) and NV(6), which would put her at 273 EV’s, barely over the 270 EV’s to win.

Cnalysis is the most optimistic for Democrats, with Harris beating Trump 308 to 230. Its forecast considers Harris wins the all 3 swing states shown above (NV, NC and PA) plus GA.

Electoral-vote and Sabato’s site show Harris winning 276 to 246, with NC as a toss-up in electoral-vote and won by Trump in Sabato’s forecast.

Polymarket Odds shows Trump winning 287 to 251 by winning all 3 swing states.


The Dreaded Tied Election

Then there is the horrible scenario of a tie. Toss-up states of NC and NV are won by Trump as before, but if he can win in the Second Congressional District in NE, we have a tied election to be decided upon by Congress. Take my word for it, this is a mess.

The last I checked the 2nd Congressional District is considered a likely Democrat, so a win there would mean an extremely narrow win for Harris of 270 to 268. Note in this scenario, she wins PA and loses in NV and NC.

In sum, the presidential election of 2024 will be an extremely close race.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Presidential Immunity Case and Upcoming Trials

by Dave

My prediction : Donald Trump will lose the immunity case now in the Appellate Court. I also believe his lawyers know this. It is a delaying tactic, as Trump will appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And the Jan 6 Election Interference case may be pushed back to past the November elections. It is a real possibility.

So, does anything the Appellate Court matter if it will end up in the Supreme Court eventually? Perhaps not as I believe the Appellate Court will likely just repeat what the trial court Judge Chutkan already said in her opinion.

The Supreme Court could hand Trump a major blow, by refusing to hear the case. They could do major damage to Trump by simply not putting the trial on hold while they are considering the case.  This would allow trial to go forward on March 4, and would push back the start of the Hush Money case. 

The conspiracy case looks like it will begin after the elections. If Trump is elected, he can’t stop either the hush money trial or the Jan 6 conspiracy case because these are municipal and state criminal cases. 

He will be doing everything he can to get rid of Attorney General Fani Willis in Georgia, and District Attorney Alvin Bragg in Manhattan in these cases.r

The wheels of justice turn slowly but in the right direction at least for now. It is important that Donald Trump not be re-elected, so the process can be completed. No one gets a free “Get out of jail card.” in this country. Let the courts hear the evidence and decide based on the law and facts of each case.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Polls

by Dave

Wow- there has been a lot of polls recently, all showing Trump with a commanding lead.  Monmouth University  shows a whopping 41% of Republicans want Trump.   I don’t follow this stuff until recently, when an MSNBC commentator said that Trump was ahead with zero margin of error. All polls have error values,  but it doesn’t seem to be enough error to put anyone else as the top candidate.

Monmouth University poll  is based on a poll of 385 people.  It is a selected group of people  who said they  will vote or leaning to vote for Republican candidates. It was done from Dec 10- 13, so it reflects the  controversy from the most recent comments by Trump on excluding Muslims from entering the US.

The  #2 position is close. Cruz,  Rubio and Carson percentages (9- 14%) are within the polling error.   One value which  has been overlooked a bit is the “No one/ Undecided” which comes in at 8%,  beating  all other 8  candidates.  But this group has been on the decline. It was 22% in June 2015.

If the  Santorium, Graham,  Huckabee and Pataki,  (CNN first debaters) drop out,  this would leave around 8% of the Republicans having to make new choices.   We may see the undecided numbers increase.

Polls help candidates develop their campaign strategies.  Top issue in this latest poll was national security and terrorism, and the lowest priority issue was education.  Economy and jobs were in second place- and I suspect also top issues for Democrats.

Lot of dynamics are at play, and we are very early in the game.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Don’t Vote

by Dave

You have the right to vote.  Nobody says you have to vote.  Yes, I know both Republicans and Democrats are saying all Americans should vote.  I’m suggesting just the opposite- this country would be a lot better off if some people just sat home and didn’t vote.

If you haven’t bought a read a newspaper in two years-  don’t vote.   If you can’t remember if Obama is a Republican or Democrat – don’t vote.  If you can’t name one of the justices on the Supreme Court – don’t vote.  If you can’t name two branches of government (I mean any 2 of the 3 branches) don’t vote.   Hint: the US Post Office is not a branch.  If you think Syria is next to Kuwait or Malaysia- don’t vote.

If you think of electing a president because you are mad at some decision made by the Supreme Court- forget it.  It isn’t going to happen.  Not the Obamacare, abortion or the right of gays to marry on the liberal side, or ruling unconstitutional gun control and campaign finance on the conservative side.  Not going to be heard again and decided differently.

If you don’t care about politics, you have every right (see: Pursuit of Happiness clause) not to vote.  If you do vote, and the person you voted for wins,  it is partially your fault.  I mean a very small fraction, but do you want this responsibility?

Stay tuned,

Dave Lord