The big question is what comes after the Hush Money case. I call this “calendar wars.” I really tried to adhere to the axiom, “Everything should be made as simple as possible but not simpler” often attributed to Einstein.
— Calendar Wars
The Hush Money trial starts March 25 and may go through mid-May, which would allow another criminal trial to begin. It is unclear which one – Documents or Jan 6 case. Trump’s team would like both delayed to post-November, but they could opt to accept a pre-election start date for the Documents case so they can push the more damaging Jan 6 case to after the election. For political purposes, always the less embarrassing case goes first. The Jan 6 case could be put on hold by the Supreme Court.
It is also been suggested by commentators that Judge Cannon might be more lenient to Trump’s delaying tactics with frivolous motions than Judge Chutkan. It looks hopeless that the Georgia trial case will start prior to 2025. But, we shall see.
Hush Money Case: There will be a lot of commentary connected with this trial. Republicans will certainly down play this case, claiming it should be a misdemeanor charge, rather than a felony.
Prosecutors have asked Judge Juan Merchan to order a partial gag order barring Trump from making or directing others to make public statements about potential witnesses, prospective jurors and members of the prosecution team and their families other than District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Trump can blast away at DA Bragg all he wants and has already made a lot of false statements. See link below:
CNN Fact check: Trump makes false and evidence-free claims at Manhattan courthouse
DA Alvin Bragg has described the case in terms of 2016 election interference, which I believe is correct. The secret payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal were done, so his election prospects wouldn’t be hurt by knowledge of these affairs. His reported sexual encounter with Stormy Daniels (Stefanie Clifford) was just one time. He suggested to her, that she could be on his show, “Celebrity Apprentice” but this never happened. She claims he tried to keep the affair alive but she rejected this. The affair with Karen McDougal lasted 9 months.
There has been a lot of contentious issues of who should be allowed to testify and what evidence is material to this case. Donald Trump will absolutely appeal any conviction and these pre-trial motions will be a part of his appeal. See link:
Link: Trump seeks to block Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen from testifying at NY hush money trial
Jan 6 Case: Trump’s ex-presidential immunity case is now pending in the Supreme Court. What his lawyers want, is to put a hold on the start of the January 6 election obstruction trial. The Special Counsel urges the Supreme Court to either allow the Appellate court ruling to stand, and begin trial as soon as possible or to hear the case on a highly expediated schedule.
Most experts predict that Trump is destined to lose the case, so the issue is whether he can delay it to after the election. So far, no decision. Conservatives on the bench can hand Trump a victory, simply by taking up the case, and then pushing it to the next term to be decided. The three liberals probably have heard enough on this subject, and would be ready to rule against Trump immediately.
Documents case: Pre-trial motions keep going back and forth. Judge Cannon ordered documents unsealed so Trump’s team could know potential witnesses that could be called by the prosecution. Smith request a reconsideration of the order, and he may file an appeal if Cannon doesn’t reverse herself. Legal experts have generally sided with the prosecution, as it gives Trump’s team time to find ways of intimidating witnesses. Trump is well known for his attacks on just about everyone involved in a case against him.
Trump also filed a lengthy “motion to dismiss” brief, and Cannon wants separate briefs for each issue. The Rolling Stone’s lyric, “Makes a grown man cry” is probably resonating in the Smith’s office as Judge Cannon seems reluctant to rule against Trump. Presidential immunity is part of the motion to dismiss, and I’m thinking it is the quickest way to put the whole trial on hold. As discussed in “Calendar Wars” a lengthy hold on the Documents case could disadvantage Trump, as the more damaging January 6 case becomes the likely successor to the Hush Money case.
Judge Cannon has scheduled a hearing on March 1 to review delays in the trial date. The Special Counsel would like the trial to begin on May 20, 2024, but legal experts suggest this date is unrealistic.
Georgia Election Interference Case: We will know soon if DA Fani Willis affair with Nathan Wade will end in her disqualification. The entire conspiracy case disappears at this point! Just as I was ready to post this, Judge McAfee ordered Terrence Bradley, who was Nathan Wade’s partner and divorce lawyer, to answer additional questions, ruling that attorney-client privileges do not extend as far as he allowed before in the hearing.
Michael Roman and several other co-defendants in Trump’s election case are seeking Willis’ disqualification from the case on the grounds that she benefited financially from a “personal, romantic relationship” with Wade, who she hired for the case.
Judge has scheduled a hearing on March 1 on the Willis/Wade romance. I am hoping this does not derail the case.
No date has been set for conspiracy trial. It will be televised and a bit of a circus with all the lawyers defending 15 defendants. For this reason, I believe the Jan 6 federal case is, with the sole focus on obstruction of justice and interference in election proceedings by Trump, is still the most damaging. If Trump gets re-elected, the January 6 case will be sure be dismissed but the Georgia case will continue.
This sums up the four criminal cases. In related cases, Trump needs to come up with bond for the civil cases, which have been appealed. This is a very fluid story of what is possible. There’s the Colorado Disqualification case in the Supreme Court, which may rule in Trump’s favor. I would like this, as voters not judges, need to decide elections.
Stay tuned,
Dave
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