Covid-19 increases and decreases

It’s terrible to see Covid-19 exponentially increasing in many countries.  An exponential curve means the number of infected to double in a specific number of days.  If doubling occurs every 2 days we go 1 – 2 – 4 – 8 in 8 days. We’ve seen worse with Covid-19 go from 100 to 1000 in a span of 8 days.   The hope is with all precautionary actions, including frequent hand washing and social distancing, the rate of increase (acceleration)  will be less than exponential and will transition to linear.  The disease is at a stable point for health officials when more people are leaving the hospital than entering it.   The disease is in decline phase only when there is a negative trend in new cases. The fact that the disease is less than exponential in many countries, is good news, but the rate of growth is still very high and still at crisis levels.

For the data to be accurate and to prevent a premature lifting of measures, there must be testing available on demand to anyone.   I have high hopes that the US and all countries will increase their testing.  I fear a second wave, as some scientists have warned.

Stay tuned and safe.

Dave

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