Author: Dave

Javelins and Stingers

by Dave

Javelins are portable anti-tank missile. Stingers are portable anti-aircraft missiles.

A Javelin missile costs about $80,000 (Wikipedia) and weighs 49 pounds. It can be fired by one person. It has infrared radiation tracking to locate its target, which can be a tank or low flying aircraft such as helicopters. Per Wikipedia: “The missile system is most often carried by a two-person team consisting of a gunner and an ammunition bearer, although it can be fired with just one person if necessary. While the gunner aims and fires the missile, the ammo bearer scans for prospective targets, watches for threats, such as enemy vehicles and troops and ensures that personnel and obstacles are clear of the missile’s backblast.” Also, Wikipedia notes that the exhaust from firing the missile contains lead. Gunners are instructed to hold their breath during firing. The Javelin is a “fire and forget” weapon as after firing, the team can quickly relocate to avoid enemy fire. See links:

It is unclear how many Javelin missiles and launchers Ukraine currently has as they are actively using up their supply and more missiles are likely being sent from the neighboring countries. Wikipedia states Ukraine has 377 launchers and 1200 missiles. The actual number is likely higher than this as there has been air shipments from Poland.

Stingers are portable surface to air missiles, and similar to Javelins, they can be fired by one person, but usually a team of two is used. A stinger weighs 33.5 pounds, and has IR and UV detectors to track the target. Apparently, adding UV detection increases the reliability of target seeking electronics. The missile is also capable of being deployed from a Humvee Stinger rack, and can be used by airborne troops. A helicopter launched version exists called Air-to-Air Stinger (ATAS).

Stingers are also “fire and forget” missiles giving the team an opportunity to relocate after launch.

As shown above, a small ejection motor in located behind the missile. The motor pushes the missile out a safe distance from the operator before engaging the main two-stage solid-fuel sustainer, keeping the gunner safe from the missile thrust. (Wikipedia) The cost of stinger missile is $119,000.

Wikipedia reports that the US has sent 2,000 stingers to Ukraine. It is always difficult to know how many Ukraine has available at any moment, as they are being used and more are being slipped into Ukraine.

More technical details can be found in the links.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia, Javelins

Wikipedia, Stingers

There are many informative websites on these missiles, and their use in the Ukrainian war.

On the Ukraine War

by Dave

The Ukraine war is a lose-lose proposition. It is a modern war, with cyberattacks and footage of the fighting streaming over the internet. It is an unprovoked and unnecessary war. Every war is bloody and inhumane, in terms of loss of civilian life. I’ve seen the results of war, and it is extremely sad.

This war began with a very wrong assumption from Putin. In view of the vastly superior military force of Russia, he thought Kyiv would quickly surrender. After surrender, a puppet government would be installed. Over time, Ukraine would take their orders from Moscow. It was all in the mind of Putin. He could go back in time, and redraw the borders of Ukraine. This is Putin’s personal and deranged fantasy.

Putin’s justification for invasion is founded on the idea of the redefining Russia along historical borders of the Soviet Union about 30 years ago. A full generation has past. In fact, he goes so far back in time, that he recalls World War II in a very twisted narrative, to somehow paint Russia as a victim for which he must now extract revenge on the grandchildren of those who fought in the great war. Wars should not beget wars. Wars should beget peace.

If the fallen soldiers of decades gone by could speak, they would be begging for peace.

In Putin’s mind, he is correcting the errors of the past when Ukraine won its independence. Peace among nations must be founded on respect of international law and agreed upon boundaries as they exist, no matter how long ago or ill advised they have been drawn. It is the principle that we may not socialize with each other or even like each other, but for our continued survival, we must respect each other, and the territorial boundaries. Otherwise, we return to the law of the jungle.

This perspective was brought forward by the Ghana representative to the UN in the Security Council and later repeated by Fareed Zakaria on CNN. He observed the African continent was subdivided by European colonists, disregarding cultural and linguistic differences. Yet, these border have remained. Respect of territorial boundaries is imperative for peace and disagreements are settled by dialogue not weapons.

The leaders of Europe and United States gave Putin full notice that they would do everything within their power to resist the invasion within the law. However they would not escalate the conflict. No boots on the ground was the right policy. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and as Biden said, once Russians and the US are fighting on the same battlefield, then you have World War III.

Weapon systems have increased, and the potential of escalation is really frightening. Cluster bombs are meant to keep on killing long after a bomb has been dropped. Vacuum bombs (“mother of all bombs”) with the intense heat, are similar to nuclear bombs, designed to wipe out entire populations in a large area.

Our planet in the last 20 to 30 years seems to have gotten much smaller. Cyberwarfare is real and powerful. It is a new element of aggressive military action. Drone warfare is also new and lethal. These are both offensive and defense weapons. These are new elements might seem more humane, but the war is still as bloody and brutal as ever.

The invasion of Ukraine was immediately condemn by world leaders, The Secretary-General of the UN Security Council Antonio Guterres said it best nearly a week ago, “Bring the troops back to Russia” – see link. Unfortunately, although countries like Russia, Iran, North Korea and China still will still find ways to censor the news to create their own alternative facts. It feels like part of our planet is fully illuminated or at least truth is very available and others parts are kept in the dark. Information and misinformation travel fast, at the speed of light. To Putin and others, truth is just another enemy. Anti-war protesters were beaten by the police in the streets of St Petersburg.

Putin’s war further advances the militarization of our planet. It is a huge step backwards. The UN was formed to prevent conflicts like this one. I feel no safer if in the future, the western border of Ukraine is heavily armed by NATO forces against military bases of Russia on the other side. I felt as if when the windows were being blown out of apartment buildings in Ukraine, as if the windows on the UN were also shattering.

I kept thinking of how beautify and perfect our blue planet looked, when we saw it from space without any boundaries. Just water and land. In the words of the late Elijah Cummings, “We can do better.” How to get back to a more demilitarized world, I’m not exactly sure.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

I will not list a long list of links, as these can easily be found on the internet.

Antonio Guterres, Statement to the Press

(Antonio Guterres is the former Prime Minister of Portugal. He has been the Secretary-General of the UN Security Council since 2017. He chooses his words carefully. He was pleading with Russia to reverse course, to no avail.)

Ukraine End Game

by Dave

Invasions don’t end very well. War is always a “lose-lose” proposition. Putin is discovering that his invasion of Ukraine is not easy to implement. As I see it, there are two “end games” and I hope the second one prevails.

Putin wants to eliminate (murder) the president and all important leaders of Ukraine. With control of Kyiv, he will find someone who will be his puppet president in Kyiv. Then, the puppet president will ask Russia for assistance in bringing order to Ukraine. At that point, Ukraine is effectively controlled by Russia.

The puppet president of Ukraine will, with Putin’s blessing, be as corrupt and uncaring about Ukraine. There is no way that Ukraine will accept Russian rule.

The country may be split, east and west, with Putin firmly in control of the east. This will never be a satisfactory outcome for Putin, who will continue to attack the west. He will reduce Lviv to rubble. He must control the entire country to secure his gas pipelines.

Putin will use the Wagner Group’s mercanaries to carry out the assassinations. The “Wagner Group” operates for profit, benefiting from conflicts around the globe, including Syria, Crimea, Central African Republic and Libya. And of course, Ukraine, initially in the Dunbas region. It is likely that the Wagner Group is or will become just an extension of Russia’s GRU (international intelligence service). It has been reported that the GRU basically hands out Russian passports to members of the Wagner Group. (see links below). The GRU is responsible for the cyberwarfare being conducted against Ukraine.

There can even be elections, like in Belarus, with the puppet president gaining the vast majority of the votes. The Russian government can not control the flow of information, in this day of internet and satellites.

The second end game, is that there is enough pressure from within Russia, to reverse course. Kyiv is not captured. The Russian convoy suffers massive damage, and there is little will to fight an urban war in Kyiv. The armored column can not enter the narrow streets of Kyiv. So, some face saving peace plan is devised for Putin to withdraw his forces. The next few days will be critical.

I am hoping and praying for the second end game.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia, Wagner Group.

Wikipedia, Russia’s GRU

Fox News – Mike Baker, former CIA

It is rare that I include the very biased Fox News station as a source. I note Fox News contributor (former CIA officer, Mike Baker) added valuable information on the connection of the GRU and the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group was battling ISIS in Syria and then in Libya in support of the Tobruk faction. His views on Chechnya’s involvement and use of these forces as “plausible deniability” for war time atracities is also consistent with other experts in the area. Kennedy’s glib remarks were annoying but I guess that’s her style.

Friends of Putin

by Dave

The invasion of Ukraine is such a blantant unproked act of aggression, that is would seem no country on our planet would support Putin’s war. But, three countries have, Belarus, Iran and Chechnya. And I suspect others will follow, such as Syria and North Korea. Other countries will simply look the other way, such as India, China and UAE, which abstained when a vote was taken in the UN Security Council.

Chechnya and Belarus are essentially corrupt puppet regimes of Putin. Currently, Chechnya is now under the rule of its Russian-appointed dictator, Ramzan Kadyrov, with no respect for human rights and will plunder his country just like multi-billionaire Putin (see links). Belarus president . Alexander Lukascheko won his sixth term in office in 2020 in a rigged election (links below).

No need to go into detail on Syria’s and North Korea’s presidents. They have little respect for international law. Iran is a supporter of terrorism, in Iraq and Lebonon.

We shall see after the General Assembly votes today, which other countries support the invasion of Ukraine and which ones would prefer to look the other way. As members vote, the war will rage on.

The news is filled with the 40 mile long convoy of Russian tanks and armored vehicles, all headed to Kyiv. Today could be the bloodiest day of all. My prayers go to the brave Ukrainians as they defend their country.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus

Ramzan Kadyrov, President of Chechbya

The Russian Military Leader Wears Prada (Ramzan Kadyrov)

Ukraine wipes out ‘bloodthirsty’ Chechen special forces sent to assassinate Zelensky (other sources state that there have been some causalities, so wiped out may be an exagerration)

Iran’s Khamenei: ‘Mafia regime’ of US created Ukraine crisis

Cyber Warfare

by Dave

The potential of Russia to invade Ukraine is red hot news. Experts speculate the first wave of attacks from Russia will be “cyber attacks” which I really had to do some research on this topic. Computers have always had some vulnerability to outside interference. What changed in the last two decades, is that everything is very interconnected, so the network security has real vulnerabilities. It really is machine verses machine, but because humans both code software to attack network servers and to defend them, it is all about people in countries openly violating international norms supported by their government.

A website can be flooded with requests and this can cause time-outs, or denial of service (DoS). It happened to me when I was trying to get an appointment for the first Covid vaccine. This was unintentional and the result of requests greatly exceeding the capacity of the overall system. It can happen intentionally also, and an individual website can be disabled. Frequently, this is called a “distributed denial of service” or DDos attack.

Wikipedia (see link below) states:

“In computing, a denial-of-service attack (DoS attack) is a cyber-attack in which the perpetrator seeks to make a machine or network resource unavailable to its intended users by temporarily or indefinitely disrupting services of a host connected to a network. Denial of service is typically accomplished by flooding the targeted machine or resource with superfluous requests in an attempt to overload systems and prevent some or all legitimate requests from being fulfilled.[1] In a distributed denial-of-service attack (DDoS attack), the incoming traffic flooding the victim originates from many different sources. This effectively makes it impossible to stop the attack simply by blocking a single source.[2]

A DoS or DDoS attack is analogous to a group of people crowding the entry door of a shop, making it hard for legitimate customers to enter, thus disrupting trade. Criminal perpetrators of DoS attacks often target sites or services hosted on high-profile web servers such as banks or credit card payment gateways. Revenge, blackmail[3][4][5] and activism[6] can motivate these attacks.”

The DDos attacks have many different forms of attack and defenses. Attacks are meant to disrupt normal communications. The more technical details are provided in the Wikipedia summary as provided below.

As I prepared this post, cyber attacks by Russia had begun. Ukraine’s banks and Ministry of Defense reported the attacks. The impact is not considered serious. Hopefully, the international community is helping keep Ukraine’s cyber defenses in a high state of preparedness. See links.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Threatpost, “Ukrainian DDoS Attacks Should Put US on Notice–Researchers“, This is reporting from 2/16/2022 and the situation is highly fluid. There are US laws against cyber attacks, and European accords, but this is really very limited.

Wikipedia, Denial-of-service attack, There are many sites covering the cyber attack and defense issues. The summary goes into detail how network attackers look for any means to disrupt internet services through examining potential vulnerabilities. The cyber-extortionists profit by demanding payment in the form of bitcoins to call off the attack. Russia, North Korea and China may be training the next generation of these criminals. The cyber attacks can cause major disruption the telecommunication system, and weaken defenses. I am hoping that the NATO countries have already helped Ukraine to prepare for these attacks.

Trump’s Legacy

by Dave

Three organizations (APSA, Siena and C-Span) provided rankings of US presidents. These rankings were based on surveys of historians, generally from well known universities. The APSA (American Political Science Association) and Siena (Siena College Research Association) were done in 2018, so they do not reflect the last two years of Trump’s term in office.

Donald Trump was 45th president of the United States, however since Grover Cleveland was the 22 and 24th president, it means there were really 44 presidents. It is convenient to divide these rankings by quartiles, as ranks 1 to 10 are the top ranked presidents and 34 to 44 are the lowest ranked presidents. Wikipedia has consolidated these surveys and also provides a breakout of the ranking of various factors, such as integrity and leadership of each of these surveys.

Trump is considered one of the five worst presidents in these three surveys. C-SPAN rates Trump as the fourth worst president in history.

SurveyTrump (#45)Pierce (#14)Buchanan (#15)Andrew
Johnson (#17)		Harding (#29)
APSA (2018)4441434039
Siena (2018)4240434441
C-SPAN (2021)4142444337
Ranking of Donald Trump in the lower fourth quartile

Since Harding’s term was from 1921 to 1923, the surveys rank Trump at a level not seen about 100 years. So, what qualities are lacking in Trump and the other presidents in this table? Siena ranks Trump as the worst (rank = 44) in the areas of background, integrity, ability to compromise and executive appointments. Interestingly, he has high rating in “luck” and is in the third quartile in “willing to take risks.”

Similarly, C-Span (2021) puts Trump last of all presidents in the category of moral authority and administrative skills. He is in the bottom of the fourth quartile as are Pierce, Johnson and Buchanan in all categories (crisis leadership, economic management, international relationship and relations with congress) with the notable exception of public persuasion, where he is the ranked in the third quartile.

His continual stream of lies did not go unnoticed by the scholars. Getting the lowest ranking of any president in integrity (Siena) and moral authority (C-Span) reflect this. Donald Trump was never very interested in the truth, as his narratives were generally built on a stack of lies.

Being ranked lowest in “background” is pretty bad, but I believe accurate, as he never held office prior to being president.

The president is elected to do what is best for the country and not himself. This is part of the moral authority that great presidents have displayed. The January 6 committee will have public hearings in the spring, and will, I am certain, show Donald Trump had total disregard for the constraints of presidential power in his attempt to alter the outcome of the 2020 election. It is unprecedented in American history.

So what is this quality missing from these surveys? I guess it is “humility and respect” which Trump was not. He was arrogant and disrespectful of the system.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia: Historical Ranking of US Presidents

Siena College US President Study Historical Ranking

Covid-19 Personal Experiences

by Dave

I thought 2 doses and a booster would protect me from getting Covid. I haven’t gotten Covid but I’ve recently had a very close calls. Four good friends of mine were vaccinated and all got Covid-19 in January. Three of them were at a family reunion with me. The good news is all of my friends recovered quickly and did not need to go to the hospital.

But, it was scary. Trump commented that Covid vaccines work because they keep you out of the hospital. Well, in general. One of my friends said she was having trouble breathing. She has two young children to take care which were unvaccinated. I tried to help her by preparing food for her and her kids. She improved greatly after 3 days of bed rest.

Lots of health related issues can make a mild case go to a severe one. Respiratory diseases like emphysema and asthma are obvious issues. Diabetes and obesity also put people in the high risk category. The list of risk factors is long.

Tests are free in the US, but not in many countries. So, I believe the current level of Covid cases outside the US is very under reported.

People want to travel to visit with family and friends. I think when staying in someone’s house, it is not an impolite question to ask if they have been vaccinated. Also, it is very understandable why we need Covid tests for international flights in and out of the US.

Your first line of defense is to be vaccinate. You are much more protected if everyone you contact is also vaccinated. Still, nothing is full proof with this disease.

Stay safe,

Dave

NY Times: Excellent Journalism

by Dave

If done right, I know the reporter was there without a single picture as the words paint the scene, and give it life. And a little bit of humor goes a long way as Cara Buckley did so well in the coal mines to solar farm on January 2. “Peak stripped of coal to get a solar upgrade” the front page NYT story on January 2, from Martin County, Kentucky begins, “For a mountain that’s had its top blown off, the old Martiki coal mine is looking especially winsome these days. With vast stretches of emerald green grass dotted with hay stacks and ringed with blue-tinged peaks, and the wild horses and cattle that roam, it looks less like a shattered strip mine and more like an ad for organic milk.”

News with a bit of poetry, i.e., “Up at the now-flattened summit, the sky yawns big and wide.” Interviews with residents in the area gave mixed opinions to the idea of transforming the area to a solar farm. After all, this is coal country. See link.

Yes, this is not breaking news. It adds a bit of balance to the front page of Sunday’s New York Times, with local, national, and international stories on the front page.

“Tests predicting rare disorders in fetuses are usually wrong,” is another front page story in Sunday’s paper. As I read the article, I would have liked the headline to read, “Some initial tests … ” as there are tests which are highly accurate. Testing errors which fail to identify someone with a problem (false negative) is difficult to assess because the disorder is so rare. On the other hand, it’s easy to identify false positives (test gives a positive to someone who is negative) because so many patients would be negative.

I’m still on the front page, and yet to read, “Harsh backlash meets feminists in South Korea”, “Human toll of America’s Air Wars” (repeated from 12/19), and the swearing ceremony of Eric Adams, the new mayor of NYC.

On page 3, international new, art clashes with politics. Provocative art exhibits in the city of Diyarbakir, Turkey’s largest Kurdish city, caused the exhibition to be shut down. See link.

It’s tough to keep up. North Korea’s president promises better time, in South Africa, the sad news of Archbishop Tutu’s passing, (What a wonderful, passionate and powerful leader!) and an investigative story on how Nashville, TN is changing after the 2020 Christmas bombing. I’m just up to page 10.

Yes, these are not the CNN breaking news stuff. These stories go a bit deeper.

Got a lot to read in a very short time. Monday’s edition will be soon arriving.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

I’m not sure if all NYT articles can be read without an online subscription. All stories cited were in the print edition.

Jan 2 NYT Coming Soon to This Coal County: Solar, in a Big Way

Jan 2 NYT When They Warn of Rare Disorders, These Prenatal Tests Are Usually Wrong

Jan 2, NYT Human toll of America’s Air Wars

Jan 2 NYT An Exhibit Meant to Showcase Kurdish Suffering Provoked a Furor Instead

My Predictions – 2022

by Dave
  1. Trump and his company will continue to file cases in court and lose every single one of them. The first loss will happen at the very end of January when the Supreme Court will reject the request by Trump to review the Jan 6 committee subpoena for documents from the National Archives and the documents will be in the hands of the committee by February.
  2. In the most recent lawsuit against Attorney General Letica James, it will be dismissed with harsh words, such as the lawsuit is frivolous and politically motivated.
  3. Devin Nunes is the CEO of Trump’s new social media company. Trump will fire him before the end of the year.
  4. Many countries in Europe will have higher percentage of their population vaccinated than in the US. This is a fairly easy prediction, and it is a sad fact that many Americans have doubts about the vaccines or believe popular but untrue conspiracy theories. Eastern Europe and Russia will catch up to the US.
  5. A new Iran nuclear deal will be agreed upon. Republicans will do everything they can to defeat it.
  6. Climate change will be very much present, as the northwest of the US will suffer from extreme heat and our hurricanes will be wetter, creating more flooding,

I think 6 predictions are enough for now. I’ll check back at the end of 2022 and see how I did. I did not make any predictions on the mid-term elections, but it’s certainly possible for both the House and the Senate to be controlled by Republicans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

It’s too late for you now

by Dave

I think you know the question. Moderna, Pfizer or J&J shots can’t help someone who has Covid-19. It was tweeted by an ER nurse. The first line of defense against Covid-19 is vaccination. In the US, it is free and widely available. Yes, there is great progress being made on Covid-19 treatments, but I rather not get Covid-19 to begin with and a hospital bed is a lousy place to be trying to see what’s available.

Dave

Fight for Trump’s documents: End game.

by Dave

On December 9, Donald Trump lost his case in the Circuit Court of Washington DC to bar the transfer of documents held in the National Archives from being handed over to the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 siege of the Capital.

The end game depends on mid-term election in 2022.

Donald Trump will ask the Supreme Court to review the decision. He has been given 14 days to do this. He will wait until the last minute on December 23 to petition the Supreme Court.

Now, my prediction. How will all this end? In late January, 2022, the Supreme Court will decline to hear this case. The National Archive will comply with the subpoena. The legitimacy of the Committee and their efforts to obtain the necessary testimony and documents will be upheld.

The court said Trump failed to demonstrate the harm that would be caused by releasing the documents to the Committee. The harm is not to the country, but to Trump. It will show the extreme measures Trump will go to in order to promote himself. “Stop the steal” attack on the Capitol resulted in injuries and deaths to people doing their job.

Republicans are hoping to regain the majority in the House in the mid-term election, and then they will disband the January 6 investigation. The only way to prevent this, is to vote in Democratic representatives of Congress. The Jan 6 committee must be allowed to complete their work.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

CNN: Appeals court rejects Trump’s bid to keep January 6 documents from House committee

Abortion case now with the Supreme Court

by Dave

Not my favorite topic. The abortion case is highly divisive, entwining legal, religious and political viewpoints. I’ll leave most of the commentary up to the pundits on internet, social media and cable news. who seem able and willing to comment on any topic in a minute. I trust more the printed media, in particular the New York Times and Washington Post. Yes, I am a news snob. I include only two links, one from Wikipedia, and a second from Scotusblog.com . The Supreme Court typically issues their most controversial opinions late in June or July, shortly before adjourning for the summer.

The case before the Supreme Court is Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and at issue is law recently passed in Mississippi which permits abortion up to the first 15 weeks. This is a violation of Roe v. Wade which permits states to outlaw abortions only at the end of the second trimester, approximately 24 weeks.

Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973, with Justice Harry Blackmun, a Republican nominated by Nixon, writing the majority opinion. Prior to this cases, it was hard time getting a case heard in the Supreme Court because by the time because there was no “live” case, as the woman whose rights had been denied, would have already given birth. The Court in 1973 opined that the case could go forward without the requirement of a “live” case.

I have included links on the history of the Roe v. Wade and the oral arguments summary by Amy Howe (Scotusblog). I believe both links provide a neutral stance on the issues.

The liberals on the court, would like to consider Roe v. Wade as settled law, which establishes a precedent for all future cases. It was decided on the Ninth and Fourteenth Amendments to the Constitution.

The conservatives likely consider Roe v. Wade improperly decided on a weak or nonexistent constitutional basis, and so they are merely correcting prior errors of the court. For practical purposes, if Roe v. Wade is overturned, abortion rights will return to the states to decide. What is legal in one state, could result in a felony charges (manslaughter) in another.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia: Roe v Wade

Scotus Blog on summary of oral arguments in Dobbs

It is not done with us

by Dave

Omicron is here. A virus mutates. The breeding of variants is made more likely when 57% of us are not vaccinated or partially vaccinated.

Health experts predicted other variants were likely last year. Our best defense is to get as close to 100% vaccinated as possible. We are at war. We don’t hear bombs dropping, but it is war. What emerged in South Africa, is now present in Europe and Canada. It most likely came by plane in passengers without symptoms.

It is a world health crisis. WHO Director Tedros Ghebreyesus got it right. Omicron is another reminder that although many might “think we are done with Covid-19, it is not done with us,” Tedros said.

The vaccine is not perfect, but it is the best armor in this war we have. What I mean by “we” is the population of the world. So the way out of the pandemic is for developed countries to support vaccine availability in less developed countries.

Tedros said that while the agency understands that every government has a “responsibility to protect its own people,” ending the uneven distribution of vaccines is “in every country’s best interest.”

These comments came in a recent interview in Forbes, as provided below.

I and my wife have gotten our shots and booster shots. In the US, it is free and widely available. Other preventative measures don’t offer the same protection. I was in and out of CVS Pharmacy in less than 30 minutes.

A lot of other measures are being taken with mixed results. It is epidemiology 101 that any measure to limit long distance disease transmission (local containment) is good. However, cancelation of flights from African countries, have caused stranded passengers and congestion at multiple airports. Americans can return home from South Africa so this can lead to more opportunities to spread the new variant.

I’m not counting on any magic pill being ready. Yes, if the Pfizer or Bristol Myers pills are approved and I’m infected with Covid-19, I’m all in. But, long-haul Covid is possible, with a long list of symptoms. (for long haul Covid, I recommend Sanjay Gupta’s book World War C, see links below).

I’ll end with one simple conclusion that our planet is much smaller than people think. In my lifetime, I visited China, India, and countries in South America, the Middle East, Africa and SE Asia. I was a tourist, and I want to remain that way. Not a disease transmitter.

It depends on Covid vaccine availability and acceptance, if we are to make the planet healthier.

GET VACCINATED. IF ELGIBLE, GET YOUR BOOSTER. SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO INCREASE VACCINE AVAILABILITY WORLDWIDE.

OK, I said my peace, and I’ll sit down.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links,

Forbes Interview with WHO Director

Sanjay Gupta, World War C

Recommended reading. I use Kindle on my PC to read it.

Are gasoline prices too high? (Part 1)

by Dave

Oh no, this question again. It is very convenient to blame the current administration. Or Opec.

Sometimes in polite company, it is bad to know too much. “I paid $40 to fill up my tank, so don’t you think it’s too much?” Ok, the correct answer is “yes, you poor dear,.” even though I know better. People compare what it cost to fill up a gas tank now verses a week ago. No one compares what it cost to fill up a tank now compared to 2013 or 2014. Or the price of gasoline in 1981.

A recent Facebook post compared economic measures from October 2020 to October 2021, and showed almost everything improving, such as higher salaries, lower unemployment, and higher stock market prices which for many Americans mean their retirement plans are gaining value.

No question about it- the price of gas at the pump has risen significantly from October 2020 to today. In October 2020, gasoline on average was $2.248/gallon and in October 2021, the cost was $3.384/gallon, a gain of 51%.

A 50% change in gasoline prices isn’t that unusual. Gas prices dropped in half during the economic crisis which began in 2008. What really drove the economic crisis was new forms of lending, which allowed people to buy homes, without adequate income or assets. Gasoline prices dropped nearly in half from around 2014 to 2016 as offshore drilling and fracking became commercially viable. Improved drilling technology allowed offshore gas and oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico to be drilled in much deeper water, and highly deviated or horizontal wells became common. Subsea completions allowed for more rapid development, and reduced the front end expense.

It took just 3 years following the 2008 housing crash for gasoline prices to get in the $3.80 to $4.00/gallon. The declining prices from 2012 to 2016 were due to increased oil prices due to fracking and deep water drilling Fracking really dried up in 2016 due to low oil prices. The companies involved in fracking can postpone the completion of wells to cut costs. This is a desperate measure because they don’t get the benefit of new production. Offshore developments are on a much longer timeframe, from discovery to initial production from 5 years or more, so they do not react as quickly to lower oil prices.

These boom to bust and back to boom cycles will continue. Nobody in 2016 was complaining that oil prices had dipped below $2.00/gallon except the oil industry, which needed to make large investments to maintain their supply of oil. It was the cheapest oil had been in 8 years, during a couple of months at the worst moments of the housing crash. Or the lowest gas had been since 2005.

We haven’t defeated Covid but travel and businesses are returning to normal. If I remove the 2007 to 2008 housing bubble, the 2008 to 2009 housing crash/recession, and the Covid-19 economic crash and early recovery, the trend become a bit clearer.

So, the first upward trendline goes from 2002 when gas cost about $1.20/gallon to 2014, when it hit about $4.00/gallon. From 2014 to 2016, technology increased production and the oil glut simply reset the trendline back to $2.00/gallon by 2016, then we were back on the same trendline.

In fact, it is very rational to believe oil prices should go up with time over the long run, because the worldwide supply of oil is limited. It is increasingly more expensive to find more oil. Economic turmoil seems to temporarily reverse the upward trend. I know world leaders are gathered in Glasgow to cut fossil fuels consumption. So, should alternative fuels become more popular, then oil prices should go down. At present, the electric vehicles account for 1.7% of all cars sold, so we have a long ways to go.

Oil prices will be influenced by many factors including the policies of OPEC and the global economy. It seems anything above about $60/barrel for crude oil, results in increased fracking for oil and gas. We are now around $83/barrel.

So, I understand the higher prices are painful. But, longer term prices will result in more production, and people choosing either buying EV’s or fuel efficient cars. This can, in the long term, reverse the trend.

The graph above starts at 1993. If I go back to 1981, gasoline cost $3.88/gallon after adjusting for inflation. So are gasoline prices too high? They are really pretty much on the same trend as pre-Covid. Will we hit a peak, then a decline as more production comes on line? Maybe not. Added production may lower the slope of the trendline, or in other words, slow the pace of increases.

In general, gasoline prices increase when oil prices go up, but it is not always in synch. I will discuss oil prices and production in the next blog.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

EIA US Historical Gasoline Prices

Social Media Immunity – Section 230

by Dave

“No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider” Section 230.

I began my last blog with a quote from Donald Trump on how the 1996 Communications Decency Act gave rights to social media companies, which are not enjoyed by others in the electronic communications business, such as television and radio. It was a recognition of the immense difficulty these companies have in monitoring content. I added the Electronic Frontier Foundation, as I felt it provided a simple explanation of why the social media platforms are protected by Section 230.

I wanted to make it clear that when Republicans go after Section 230 of this act, they are attacking the foundations of Donald Trump’s new foray into social media, by making his website vulnerable to legal action. There is an enormous list of websites, which depend on Section 230 protection, including Youtube, Vimeo, Amazon, Yelp, craigslist and WordPress. Yes, WordPress which hosts this website.

My prior post was not particularly kind to our former president. I want to make it clear that Facebook and Twitter are also a platform hosting a ton of political propaganda garbage. I don’t look for news/commentary on Facebook or any other social media site. I consider these sites to cluttered with personal attacks and often void of any real news.

If someone posts information on how to fix my bicycle or dishwasher, that’s great. I guess I too much of a news snob to look for news commentary on Facebook. Still, if they provide bad information a bicycle, there’s Section 230 immunity. Plus, it’s likely they did not provide this bad information intentionally.

A public forum is any place open to the general public where ideas can be freely exchanged. We have evolved from people making public speeches in the town square and newspapers to radio, television, cable and satellite networks, and now to worldwide internet social networks. Our First Amendment right to freedom of speech and press, came about before radio was invented. It is not an absolute right to expression. Disrobing in public can still get you arrested on indecent exposure charges.

How far does one go in protecting the free exchange of ideas or expression? Go too far, and you will likely get sued. Lou Dobbs comes to mind right away. He was a master at righteous indignation, with comments like “What are they thinking?” in referring to various policies on immigration, climate change, China policy (yes, he supported bombing China), etc. His show ended when Smartmatic sued him for defamation of their voting machines. Alex Jones is another case, as he was sued based on commentary on the Sandy Hook shootings. It happened nine years ago, and hopefully next year, he’ll have to pay up.

So, Lou Dobbs or Alex Jones won’t be posting on Facebook anytime soon. Telling people that Covid vaccines will alter your DNA so in two years you will die, is exactly what will get you censored and ultimately thrown off of Facebook. You will be thrown off because you violated the terms of posting to the site. Well, you are in violation in the opinion of the site’s owners. But will Trump’s site allow them to spread their garbage propaganda. I’m afraid of this. Asks National Enquirer, garbage sells. And Section 230 will protect them. In fact, both the First Amendment and Section 230 makes it very difficult to censor someone because there is always some place on social media which will allow outrageous ideas to be broadcasted.

The real power of social media is targeted marketing. Quite apparent, where you go on the internet, as indicated by the searches you do, can define you to others. So, in the old days, you could glance at a newspaper, and decide if the headline story interests you before buying the paper. Now, with social media, the news/commentary often piled high with falsehoods, will find you. So, if you want to believe that Biden is plotting to take away your guns, you will get “breaking news” sent to your cell phone in agreement with your beliefs.

There’s a certain appeal with the claim, that “only here can you find the real truth” of what is going on. It is particularly appealing to conspiracy prone folks, who believe big government and business are hiding the real news.

How to fix things? I don’t see this as a problem with the system (freedoms, privileges, the internet), or “them” (big government, big tech). The problem is with us and our own laziness to get the facts straight. I’m hoping the next generation understands that honesty counts.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia: Lou Dobbs

Cornell Law, Section 230

Supreme Court on Section 230 (Thomas’ opinion mischaracterized. No justice joined with Thomas. I consider his comments “pure dictum.” Trump won the right to block followers on Twitter, limiting what could be discussed.)