It sad, unfortunate and unnecessary. The measles epidemic in Texas is deadly serious. Robert Kennedy, Jr. was the chairman of the Children’s Health Defense from 2015 to 2022. It is a radical fringe organization against approval of many vaccines, including the Covid-19 vaccines. They have filed many lawsuits against mandatory vaccines for children.
The outbreak of measles occur in communities near Lubbock, Texas where the percentage of unvaccinated residents is high. The Mennonite population is reluctant to be vaccinated. This seems to be the principal reason for the outbreak. Measles can be severe if the individual is malnourished. The Mennonites generally do not eat processed food, hence their diet is notably very healthy.
We have proven vaccinations against measles. “I’m very concerned about the messaging that’s coming out,” said Dr. Jeffrey Kahn, chief of infectious diseases at Children’s Health in Dallas. “It’s somewhat baffling to me that we’re relitigating the effectiveness of vaccines and alternative therapies. We know how to handle measles. We’ve had six decades of experience.”
So, Robert Kennedy, Jr. is the last person that should head the Health and Human Services in the US government. It is true that measles is rarely fatal and the fatality rate is one to three for every 1,000 people infected. Of the approximately 300 people infected in Texas, one unvaccinated child has died. I think that’s one too many.
In the past, Robert Kennedy has promoted false information that vaccines are dangerous and can cause autism and that unconventional remedies such as cod liver oil and Vitamin A are effective.
Robert Kennedy, Jr. stated:
“While there is no approved antiviral for those who may be infected, CDC has recently updated their recommendation supporting administration of vitamin A under the supervision of a physician for those with mild, moderate, and severe infection. Studies have found that vitamin A can dramatically reduce measles mortality.”
There is nothing more powerful to persuade vaccine hesitant people to refuse to be vaccinate, than to suggest they can simply take an ordinary over-the-counter supplement. It is especially bad when they also refuse to vaccinate their children.
Vitamin A does not prevent measles and can be harmful to children in large or prolonged doses, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. It has been shown to decrease the severity of measles infections in developing countries among patients who are malnourished and vitamin A deficient, a rare occurrence in the United States.
The community health experts are doing an excellent job of correcting misinformation and giving parents good reasons to vaccinate their children as the first line of defense against a disease that can result in death. Unfortunately, they must contend with a steady stream of misinformation coming from fringe groups, and supported by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department, that vitamin supplements are effective remedies and there is nothing unusual about a measle outbreak in their community.
I call it the return shot. The US declares tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China exports. They all react with tariffs against US exports. That’s retaliation. It is so predictable. Now, Trump sees this, and declares that there will be added US retaliation tariffs. So, just guess what happens next. A second full round of pain for all.
“Tariffs are actually, we’ve had a lot of experience with them. They’re an act of war, to some degree,” Buffett said in an interview with CBS News that aired on Sunday.
Warren Buffet is 94 years old, and an incredibly successful investor, with a net worth of 160 billion dollars. Most economists are with Buffet. Countries react as if they are attacked. Not much is accomplished.
And as I wrote in my last posting, Trump’s whole basis for tariffs is a lie, that we are making our trading partners pay for their unfair trading practices. The tariffs are past to consumers. So, it is inflationary to us and our trading partners.
When asked about tariffs’ impact on inflation, the 94-year-old Berkshire Hathaway chairman was blunt: “Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” He added economists should always ask, “And then what?”
The “… then what?” is more of the same, more pain and unfortunately, from Donald Trump, a whole series of lies.
This posting is very timely. The Dow Jones futures have dropped 1.2% this morning, after Trump announced plans to levy tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China. It is a very good indication that investors are fearful of the impact of tariffs.
Almost immediately, Canada, Mexico and China will be enacting retaliatory tariffs on US exporters making it more difficult for the US to compete abroad. Tariffs are based on protectionism, or simply to keep the US industries profitable against unfair competitive practices by other countries.
Trump’s Big Lie
Trump lie is that we are making China, Mexico and China pay the tariffs. The companies that import foreign goods must pay the tariffs. The companies paying the tariffs will pass this additional cost to the consumer. Thus, the cost of many goods will go up.
In the article below it is stated, ” Trump has said that tariffs “are paid mostly by China,” rather than by Americans.” And then goes on to explain that this is untrue, as tariffs are paid by US consumers.
Increases in inflation will hurt most Americans. The cost of buying a home will rise as the lumber to build homes will increase. The loans for homes will be more expensive. Fewer houses will be built. Cost of gas will increase, as the cost of imported oil increases. So, consumer spending will be more for staples (food and gas) and much less for discretionary spending (vacations and luxury goods).
Typically, the Fed tries to bring inflation down, by increasing interest rates they charge banks. This becomes difficult in a slowing US economy. The right solution is to drop the tariffs, because they are bad for our economy and consumers. For a variety of reasons, including Trump’s ego, this is unlikely to happen.
Trump’s blanket pardon against Jan 6 rioters was wrong. I sympathize with the officers and families of the Capitol police, and the dedicated Department of Justice attorneys and FBI investigators who convicted the rioters. They threatened the lives of police officers.
Biden also abused his authority, as described in the link below:
Now, Trump is firing the attorneys with the Department of Justice who were able to secure the convictions. He can try to re-write history, but it won’t work.
There are dozens of Trump’s proposals which I disagree with, but the proposal to get rid of the debt ceiling is correct. It will require an act of Congress to get rid of the debt ceiling and should be a time when Republicans and Democrats can agree that it causes more problems than it solves.
The debt ceiling does not put a limit on our spending. The US is obligated to pay the bill for approved expenditures by Congress. I have posted this numerous times and the consequences of not passing a debt ceiling bill in time can be terrible for the US.
A meaningful debate on our growing debt can be done without resorting to the last minute drama that comes with raising the debt ceiling.
Fentanyl is powerful and deadly. It is 100 times more powerful than morphine. Traffickers love it, because they can hide small quantities in vehicles crossing the US from Mexico. Addicts die mostly from overdoses. Per Wikipedia, “Fentanyl poses an exceptionally high overdose risk in humans since the amount required to cause toxicity is unpredictable.”
Wikipedia as usual, presents a very comprehensive and well researched article. It also documents the difficulties in controlling the flow into the US and actions taken by the Biden administration.
The Big Lie
Now, Trump’s big lie – “If we halt illegal migration across the border with Mexico , this will stop fentanyl from coming from Mexico.” It is a lie, because in general, the illegal immigrants are not bringing in fentanyl.
I say “in general” because if they find just one person illegally crossing the border with drugs in his knapsack, then for Trump supporters, this is proof positive that they are the cause of the problem. Unfortunately, the bar for believability has been set extremely low for Trump and company.
“About 85 percent of fentanyl seizures occur at official border crossings, where the potent, compact drug is typically smuggled by pedestrian couriers or hidden inside cars and trucks. Most of the rest is confiscated by U.S. agents at Border Patrol highway checkpoints, not in the backpacks of migrants entering the country.” Washington Post, November 26, 2024.
Interception at the border is very difficult. Approximately 90 million vehicles and 4.3 million trucks cross through our Mexican border every year. It is not practical to shut down legal crossings. “Border officials have seized more fentanyl at ports of entry in the last two years than the past five years combined, and the President has added 40 drug detection machines across points of entry to disrupt the fentanyl smuggling into the Homeland. The bipartisan border agreement would fund the installation of 100 additional cutting-edge inspection machines to help detect fentanyl at our Southern border ports of entry.”
So, the bipartisan border agreement, with more inspection machines seem like a no-brainer. But Republicans killed this bill, because Trump did not want anything that Biden could claim that the Democrats did, to stem the flow of fentanyl. The problem with the bipartisan bill is that it didn’t have Trump’s name on it. But, Trump will bring it back, make his idea, and it will pass. Pure politics.
Trump’s lie about closing the border was told to millions, usually getting more absurd at each subsequent rally. Trump second lie- “It was Kamala, the border czar, who let everyone cross the border and with it, all our problems.” This was a lie also, as Kamala Harris was never responsible for border security. This was the responsibility of DHS Secretary. So, Trump successfully fused illegal entry and the fentanyl epidemic, where there was no real connection.
ENTRY THROUGH OF OFFICIAL PORTS
By land, sea and air, fentanyl arrives in the US. Even through the international mail. This is from a US Customs Border Protection (CBP) website. They show border agents at mail facilities. Dogs are frequently used. See full article: CBP fight against fentanyl
“In my 30 years as a customs official, the trafficking of synthetic illicit drugs like fentanyl is one of the toughest, most daunting challenges I have ever seen,” said CBP Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Commissioner Troy Miller. “We have the right capabilities from interdiction to intelligence capabilities. We’re in the right places at our land borders and between the ports in international airports, in both the passenger and air cargo environments and at our maritime borders, too. And we know what works. Intelligence-driven operations, relentless, targeting people, partnerships, and technology. CBP is well positioned to lead the federal government’s efforts in this fight.”
The CBP website offers hope in terms of successful large fentanyl busts, which means less for sale on the street. Yet, for me, the real measure of success would be a reduction in overdose rates in the US. Trump can spend billions on border security, and then claim he has been successful in stemming fentanyl deaths. But, the numbers from the CDC are likely to say something very different.
China and Mexico
The real problem with fighting the epidemic is the narrow perspective offered by Trump. It is not a Mexican or Chinese problem. It is our problem. In 2021, the U.S. had more opioid deaths than the rest of the world combined. See link below.
However, we need Mexico and China’s help. China took vigorous action in shutting down fentanyl production, but then a new industry arose, to make the essential ingredients (pre-cursors) of fentanyl and ship these to Mexico. China has passed laws to crack down on pre-cursors, but as the Council of Foreign Relations noted: “… [New laws enacted] this is unlikely to solve the core problem, as criminals will continue to discover new ways to make fentanyl using other chemical precursors that also have legitimate industrial uses.
One of the Council’s recommendations is interesting – follow the money. The Chinese criminals have to hide their profits, so they become involved in money laundering, and the US could collaborate with the Chinese in helping them crack down on the illicit profits from pre-cursor sales.
In order to follow the money, you have to follow bitcoin transactions. In this case, the drug smugglers and other cybercriminals, including hackers for profit, have something very much in common, the need to hide the chain of transactions, from deposit to withdrawal, which can be done with a “crypto mixer” software. A recent case was decided in favor of a company which profits through the use of a cryto mixer, which is a win for cyber criminals and drug traffickers to hide profits. I will discuss this further in Part II.
Reducing Demand and Overdose Rates in the US
Addiction causes demand for opioids. The US Drug Enforcement Agency message was excellent, “One pill can kill.”
This is by far, the best approach, to stop addiction before it begins. There is help for addicts, which includes counseling and drug recovery programs.
An overdose does not always result in death. Naloxone acts as an antidote to fentanyl. So, one approach is to increase awareness of family members of addicts of what can be done in case of an overdose to prevent death.
It is not like a pill that saves you.” It can be used as injection or spray form. Police officers and first responders are being trained to be able to administer it. There is no harm in injecting naloxone in someone who is not overdosing on opioids.
An excellent recent advance (FDA approved March 2023) is the one dose naloxone spray. Family members without training can administer an effective dose of naloxone. The spray is marketed under the trade name of Narcan. It is an over-the-counter medication, and costs around $50 for two sprays.
So, there is a problem of mixed messages in harm reduction. On one hand, the fentanyl does destroy lives, and the addict’s only real choice is come clean. The narcan spray may lead some to believe they can continue to tempt death to continue their addiction. Living with fentanyl is a terribly wrong decision. I am hoping that any addict who was saved once by Narcan, will choose to seek help and come clean.
As stated in the NIH posting, the Narcan lasts for only 30-60 minutes and a second dose may be necessary.
Drug users taking other illegal drugs, like cocaine and meth, can accidently overdose because these drugs are often mixed with fentanyl. So, in the interest of “harm reduction”, there are test strips available to identify the presence of fentanyl.
In another chart, the CDC shows a very similar decline in overdose deaths for synthetic opioids and methadone, from June 2023 to June 2024. Overdose deaths in this group dropped from 77,000 to 64,000, a drop of 13,000 deaths.
PBS cites a number of factors in their article for fewer deaths, including availability of treatment centers, and programs to help addicts come clean.
SUMMARY
I began this blog focused on the big lie promoted by Trump, that it was illegal immigrants bringing in fentanyl. The truth is fentanyl comes through legal ports of entry from Mexico. China has cooperated with the US in cracking down on the export of precursor chemicals to Mexico, but much more progress is needed.
I will leave for Part II, more information on how international smugglers use bitcoin and cyber mixers to hide their huge profits. Cyber privacy issues clash with the FBI need to break up money laundering operations in many areas including drug enforcement.
The trend today is fewer overdose deaths. There are many government agencies involved in finding ways to sustain this declining trend, from international agreements with China and Mexico, to vehicle inspections at entry points to the US, detection through the postal service, and disrupting the distribution chain within the US.
I have posted previously on the excellent FBI busts of gangs involved in distribution and sale of fentanyl. Much of the credit goes to dedicated FBI agents under Director Christopher Wray and the Department of Justice, for convicting these criminals.
I strongly support efforts by the Drug Enforcement Agency, to raise awareness to the dangers of fentanyl, with the simple message “One Pill can Kill” which is very true. The last 12 months resulted in 64,000 deaths attributed to synthetic opioids.
I consider a practical step forward is increase availability Narcan spray that prevent death by overdose. Test strips help prevent accidental overdoses.
I provided some basic information on fentanyl. It is coming mainly from Mexico. Precursors to make fentanyl are coming from China. It is an extremely powerful and deadly drug. A dose of 2 mg is enough to kill a person. This posting covers overdose statistics, recent setbacks and difficulties, and recent positive steps forward.
OVERDOSE STATISTICS
I began with the big lie from President-Elect Donald Trump, that illegal immigrant are bringing fentanyl to the US. They are not.
“We’re losing 300,000 people a year to fentanyl that comes through our border. We had it down to the lowest number and now it’s worse than it’s ever been.” Donald Trump. The death rate is not 300,000, Trump did not have the lowest number, and overdose rates are coming down as shown below.
The opioid overdose death rate, really took off beginning in 2020, in the last year of the Trump administration, rising from about 37,589 to 58,908 deaths (Jan 2020 to Jan 2021) or an astounding 57% increase on a 12 month basis.
From June 2023 to July 2024, fentanyl overdoses were on the decline, dropping from 77,800 (June 2023) to 61,623 (June 2024). The latest statistics represent a 21% drop. As the CDC has noted, it is provisional data, as cause of death is complicated when multiple drugs or health conditions are involved. The CDC link is provided at the end of this post.
This decline in deaths is likely due in large part to the availability of a new drug in spray form, Naloxone, to rescue people who have overdosed on fentanyl. It is called an antagonist drug, because it reverses the effect of fentanyl.
The Drug Enforcement Agency produces a report each year, entitled the National Drug Threat Assessment Report (NDTA) and the 2024 report is an excellent source of information. It comes to the point right away on the very first sentence: “Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat the United States has very faced, killing nearly 38,000 Americans in the first six months of 2023 alone.”
I have provided a lot of statistics, but for those who have lost loved one early in life, whether 1,000 or 100,000 people die of drug overdoses, it is still far too high. Plus, drug addiction destroys lives, even if life does not end with a fatal overdose.
I begin with recent setbacks or new difficulties in dealing with the epidemic. The bad news is difficulties related to supply of fentanyl. Then, I turn to the good news, which makes me hopeful for the future.
RECENT SETBACKS AND DIFFICULTIES:
Mexican Organized Crime Cartels Involvement
It is a story of both bad news and good news. The Sinaloa Cartel and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) are the main criminal organizations in Mexico and control clandestine production and distribution of fentanyl. According to DEA Threat Assessment Report, they are involved in arms trafficking, money laundering, migrant smuggling, sex trafficking, bribery, extortion and other crimes. Their criminal operations are world wide.
These Cartels are extremely dangerous for several reasons. They are becoming rich from meth and fentanyl sales in the US (largest customer) and abroad. They are tech savvy, using encrypted messaging to communicate to their supply and distribution centers. They use cyber cash to make it difficult to track transactions. And they are clever in marketing, making the pills look like legitimate prescription drugs.
Under the heading of positive steps, there are a number of indictments and arrests of Cartel leaders. So, law enforcement both in Mexico and the US are actively breaking up the cartels, seizing pills and shutting down operations. In fact, on December 4, Mexico made a very large seizure of fentanyl pills two properties in Sinaloa were worth $394m (£309m) and weighing more than a ton.
PotentialTariff trade wars and social media attacks by Trump
We need cooperation from both China and Mexico, in the fight against illegal opioid drugs. Although Trump is not yet president, the tensions between Mexico and the US are increasing due to Trump’s postings on social media.
The private conversation between President Sheinbaum and Trump was considered by both to be productive. On the positive side – they discussed at illegal migration across the Mexico border is down in part because of actions by Mexico. Presently, Mexico does not allow caravans of migrants to travel to the border. This is an achievement that Biden was able to negotiate with Mexico. Watch as Trump will claim credit.
But the more public comments by Trump on social media, were the source of tensions. I am not sure what tariffs will be imposed by Trump, but Mexico is ready to impose tariffs of equal value on the US. It is inflationary as consumers pay the tariffs in terms of higher prices on imported goods.
It also seems Trump is ready to wage another trade war with China. This will not be helpful in getting their cooperation to stop the manufacture and export of fentanyl precursors, essential to the pill production in clandestine labs in Mexico.
More difficult to “follow the money” thanks to cyber cash technology
The Council of Foreign Relations recommend following the money as a way to pursue the criminal operations of producing fentanyl precursors in China. Cyber cash is often used to hide illegal transactions. The crypto mixer software makes hiding transactions much easier.
The Tornado Cash case, decided November 26, 2024, by the Fifth Court of Appeals, stated the US Treasury could not sanction (or shut down) companies involved with the crypto mixers. The court’s reasoning was company cyber mixer was an open source software and could not be sanctioned over something they did not actually own.
As stated in the opinion, the justices noted the following “However, mixers are also “go-to tool[s] for cybercriminals” seeking to launder stolen cryptocurrency. Nearly a quarter of funds sent to mixers in 2022 were tied to money laundering efforts. Most relevant to this case, North Korea, through one of its cybercriminal organizations known as the Lazarus Group, has hacked and stolen just shy of one billion dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency. And all of that dirty money needed to be laundered before it could be cashed out for traditional (and far more liquid) fiat currencies.”
I found this incredible. One billion dollars stolen, and the laws actually protect the thieves. The appeal process is not over, so there is more to come. It is a difficult problem as cyber currency industry generates huge profits. Coinbase, probably the largest dealer of cyber currency was up 6% on the decision. If upheld, it does not bode well for a “follow the money” strategy, either in the US or other countries.
The Mexican cartels (Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels) are tech savvy, and will exploit the difficulties in tracking international transactions. They will use cyber currency to hide a host of crimes, including arms trafficking, money laundering, migrant smuggling, sex trafficking, bribery, extortion and other crimes. Their criminal operations are world wide.
Finally, issues of cybersecurity are complex and can become political. It seems the incoming Trump administration may be reluctant to monitor cyber transactions, based on an effort to reduce federal regulations and privacy issues.
Difficulties in banning precursor compounds from China
Fentanyl and methamphetamines are a synthetic compounds requiring essential ingredients (precursors). The clandestine labs in Mexico and the US can change the process, to use other precursors, not yet considered illegal, to continue their operations.
The good news is the US is taking the lead, through the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs by adding to the list of illegal precursors. In March 2023, at a meeting of the commission, it was agreed that 2 fentanyl precursors and 16 methamphetamine precursors would be added to the list.
Fentanyl Marketing -New pill formulations and appearances
There are no legal fentanyl pills. Fentanyl is administered in hospitals with a transdermal patch.
The DEA 2024 Drug Threat Assessment summarizes recent attempts by organized drug cartels in Mexico to make synthetic opioids more appealing to users (“illegal drug marketing”) through changes in appearance. The multi-colored fentanyl pills (rainbow pills) are produced to appeal to ecstasy users, although they are not market for that purpose. The efforts to make fentanyl and methamphetamines look like legal drugs, is detailed in the DEA threat assessment.
Nitazene is a synthetic opioid compound that has been add to fentanyl. This results in an even more powerful drug, making drug poisonings more likely. Pills with the fentanyl-nitazene mix may be made in Mexico or the US, but the source of nitazene is likely China according to DEA threat assessment.
Xylazine is another compound found in fentanyl. It is a sedative, not an opioid, and is sold legally to veterinarians to sedate large animals. It complicates the lifesaving administration of naloxone spray (Narcan), design to rescue fentanyl users from overdose death. Xylazine is also found in heroin.
POSITIVE STEPS
Recent arrests of Sinaloa CartelLeaders and seizures of fentanyl
To break up a cartel, the leadership must be arrested. After the arrest of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and his son Ovidio Guzmán López in 2016 and 2023 respectively, the cartel was headed by old-school leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, as well as Guzmán’s other sons.
July 26, 2024 was a great day for our country when El Mayo and Joaquim Guzman (El Chapo’s son) were arrested in El Paso, Texas. The arrests come a month after the DOJ indicted two dozen people, accusing Chinese “underground bankers” of helping Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel launder over $50m in drug proceeds. The investigation revealed a partnership between Sinaloa cartel associates and a Chinese criminal syndicate to launder drug money, exploiting Chinese nationals’ demand for US dollars.
Then, there was more to celebrate, this time in Mexico, on December 3, 2024, Mexico made the largest seizure of fentanyl ever. Per the BBC link: “Earlier, Mexico’s top security official, Omar García Harfuch, had announced on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the fentanyl pills seized at two properties in Sinaloa were worth $394m (£309m) and weighed more than a tonne.”
The BBC link includes infighting within Sinaloa cartel for control and details on the massive seizure of fentanyl.
On Dec 4, 2024, the US offered a 15 million dollar reward for the arrest of Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, better known as El Mench, who is the leader of the Jalisco cartel. The US investigation has resulted in several indictments against their leader, as well as arrests and conviction of other members of the cartel.
Every year since 2019, the amount of fentanyl seized at US borders has increased. From January to September 2024, 16,565 pounds have been seized.
I am encouraged by Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on October 1, 2024, who vow to break up the cartels. I believe she will partner with the US in going after the drug cartels.
More Money: US Budget FY 2024 calls for a $2.3 billion dollar increase as for the National Drug Control Program agencies.
The FY 2024 budget request for 46.1 billion dollars for National Drug Control agencies includes increased funding for efforts to reduce the supply of illicit drugs like fentanyl and stop drug trafficking. It also includes and increase in funding to support the expansion of prevention, treatment, harm reduction and recovery support services.
Increase awareness and availability of narcan spray to reduce overdose fatalities
The link below is from the University of Rhode Island, College of Pharmacy, which is helping addicts to stay alive, and hopefully seek treatment. The Community First Responder Program (CFRP) distributes the single dose Narcan nasal spray which, if used soon after an overdose, can save someone’s life. Narcan was reviewed in my previous post.
The 7% decrease in overdose deaths last year is the first decline in Rhode Island in four years. It’s very nice news. I would strongly recommend reading this article from URI. CFRP Director, Anita Jacobson, has a clear vision of the purpose of her organization.
“People usually think of police or fire and rescue departments as first responders,” Jacobson says. “We’re trying to build a community of first responders—people who have basic knowledge, training, and resources to help others who need it. If people are educated about this and know how to recognize an overdose and recognize someone caught in the cycle of substance-use disorder, we can save lives.”
Summary
There have been some very positive steps taken, at the federal, state and local levels, to reduce fentanyl use. The message “One pill can kill” is honest and direct. hope there is more awareness of the huge risk in taking fentanyl.
The DEA successfully seizes thousands of pounds of fentanyl each year, but more needs to be done. Curtailing the supply of fentanyl into the US requires international cooperation. Mexico’s President has vowed to destroy the cartel. Since they operated within the US, close cooperation and information sharing with Mexico is essential.
Note that there are down arrows to provide graphs by select groups of drugs. Also, data for June 2023, is for June 2023 and the prior 11 months of data. In this manner, typical variations related to reporting delays and revisions can be smoothed out.
President Biden pledged not to pardon his son. I wish he kept his word, because it is an abuse of presidential power. His son is bright attorney, and a graduate of Yale Law school. I have zero sympathy for Hunter Biden, as he can hire the best lawyers in the country to represent him.
By his own admission, Hunter Biden had been under federal investigation since December 2020. It can take years for prosecutors to decide there is sufficient evidence to obtain an indictment.
The proper course of someone who is wrongly convicted, is the appeals court, not presidential pardons. Millions of Americans will face jury trials and they will be reliant on the judge and their lawyer to explain the process and make decisions accordingly.
Obviously, Hunter Biden knew exactly the charges, and for years, he tried to avoid a trial through many pre-trial pleadings. Does this sound like someone we know?
Biden’s trial began on June 3, 2024, on charges of unlawfully possessing a gun as a drug user, lying on a federal form when he bought the gun, and making a false statement about information required to be collected by a federally licensed gun dealer. The charges stemmed from a gun purchased and possessed by Biden in October 2018. During the trial, three of Biden’s former partners testified regarding Biden’s drug usage and gun purchase. On June 11, 2024 Biden was found guilty on three felony charges for federal gun violations.
On December 7, 2023, Biden was indicted in California on nine tax charges, including three felony and six misdemeanor offenses. The indictment reads that “The Defendant engaged in a four-year scheme to not pay at least $1.4 million in self-assessed federal taxes he owed for tax years 2016 through 2019.” Biden’s lawyer said that Biden had repaid his taxes in full prior to the indictment. On January 11, 2024, Biden pleaded not guilty to the tax charges. This was changed to a guilty plea in September 2024, and sentencing was set for December 16, 2024. On the Wikipedia website, it is noted that a former federal prosecutor suggested that the sentence would be likely less than 5 years.
So, in June 2024, Biden categorically ruled out a pardon or commutation for his son, telling reporters as his son faced trial in the Delaware gun case, “I abide by the jury decision. I will do that and I will not pardon him.” So, candidate for president Biden believed in the system. It was his Department of Justice.
Then days before sentencing was to occur, Biden went on the attack. “The charges in his cases came about only after several of my political opponents in Congress instigated them to attack me and oppose my election,” Biden said in his statement. “No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son.
Remember, Hunter Biden had his chance to go on trial on tax evasion, and bring witnesses that could testify to his reasons to evade taxes, which would include his addiction to drugs and alcohol or an inability to pay taxes. And he could have always testified on his own behalf.
Instead, Hunter Biden plead guilty, and convinced the judge to delay sentencing to after the election. Hunter Biden was to be sentenced for the gun possession charges on December 12 and the tax evasion charges on December 16. Instead, President Biden issued a blanket pardon on December 1, making it impossible for any prosecutor to bring charges against Hunter Biden for the period, December 1, 2014 to December 1, 2024.
It takes a lot of effort to convict someone who is wealthy and an attorney of law. Members of Congress can make referrals to the Department of Justice, but frequently the evidence is lacking to present to a grand jury.
I am glad Judge Scarsi rejected the several excuses for tax evasion, based on Biden guilty plea. “Upon pleading guilty to the charges in this case, Mr. Biden admitted that he engaged in tax evasion after this period of addiction by wrongfully deducting as business expenses items he knew were personal expenses, including luxury clothing, escort services, and his daughter’s law school tuition.” He adds, “And Mr. Biden admitted that he ‘had sufficient funds available to him to pay some or all of his outstanding taxes when they were due,’ but that he did not make payments toward his tax liabilities even “well after he had regained his sobriety,’ instead electing to “spen[d] large sums to maintain his lifestyle’ in 2020.”
Judge Scarsi then discredits President Biden’s claim that his son was unjustly singled out. “But two federal judges expressly rejected Mr. Biden’s arguments that the Government prosecuted Mr. Biden because of his familial relation to the President.”
Finally, by pardoning Hunter Biden, he obviously is attacking the Special Prosecutor and Special Counsel as blatantly biased based on the facts seen by a reasonable person. Judge Scarsi’s opinion scoffs at this notion: “The President’s own attorney general and Department of Justice personnel oversaw the investigation leading to the charges. In the President’s estimation, this legion of federal civil servants, the undersigned included, are unreasonable people.”
The core principle that Biden violated is that no one is above the law. Guilt and innocence of the accused are for the courts to decide. Pardons should be used when there are extenuating circumstances to consider either the trial or sentence was unjust. There were no special circumstances surrounding Hunter Biden’s case to justify a presidential pardon.
Perhaps I am particularly disappointed because I felt very strongly that Joe Biden had made many right policy decisions in the course of his term. This pardon weakens the trust we place in our judges and juries. I suspect President-elect Trump will abuse the power of the pardon, to set free his friends in jail. He’s done it before, claiming that his friends were political targets. Joe Biden did no better.
The war is escalating, with Russia deploying North Korean troops and firing a hypersonic missile (Oreshnik). The US is in turn, has allowed Ukraine to use US missiles to attack targets in Russia and to use land mines to defend themselves against Russian advances. There are reports that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, so it is likely Biden will expedite shipments to Ukraine. He’ll do everything possible to aid Ukraine before his term ends.
For the country of Ukraine, it is simply a fight for their survival. They became an independent country on August 24, 1991. On that day, Gorbachev was still the president, but his authority was being rapidly diminished by the popularity of Boris Yeltsin, who became president on December 25, 1991.
Ukraine has never threatened the security of Russia. It’s military is much smaller than Russia’s, so many military experts were surprised on how well Ukraine defended its country. But, Putin detests the decisions made by Gorbachev and later Yeltsin, and the Russian congress, in allowing the break-up of the Soviet Union.
Trump is the big unknown. He wants to show immediately, that he is doing what is best for America and typically opts for quick solutions, like simply disengaging from problems, rather than help solving them. The war is horrible. However, the peace may be even worse, because Putin want surrender and capture of Zelensky following by the dismantling of the government. There is no happy middle ground.
Russia hasn’t retaken Kursk region, which I believe will be critical to a ground assault on Kyiv. This is not “Biden’s” war, it is Putin’s war. And Putin will not stop with Ukraine. Biden chose to help Ukraine, but never to send US troops, which I believe was a wise decision.
Trump can hand a big victory to Putin, justifying it as saving taxpayers billions of dollars. A total of 64 billions of dollars has been spent. Victory in Ukraine means Putin can use his troops elsewhere. Most likely, to support the breakaway government in eastern Libya, led by General Khalifa Hafter. The big prize there is 46 billion barrels of oil.
Putin will use the military mercenaries, Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) to gain power within Africa. I will post later on this. They are good at taking advantage of unstable situations. There are reports that the Wagner group is operating in Haiti, as the US and other countries attempt to bring order and security to the country.
As Trump seems set on a cabinet filled with Fox News hosts, and fixated on appearances and billionaires with their own agendas rather than experience, we may soon see, it is not a American first, but an American last.
Russia is pressing forward on Ukraine’s eastern front. They are also fighting to retake the Kurst area, which if successful, will be the point where tanks pour across the border and go straight into Kyiv.
US policy has been changed to allow Ukraine to use land mines in order to defend their country. They also now allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack targets well within Russia. US has allowed US contractors to go into Ukraine to repair military equipment, including the F-16 fighter jet.
One can say that Russia escalated first, by deploying North Korean soldiers on the battlefield, against Ukraine.
It is pretty scary. Biden made it clear that we would never send American troops to Ukraine. He stated when US and Russian soldiers are fighting on the same battlefield, it is the beginning of World War III. I agree.
But is there a serious path to peace? Russia is risking thousands of Russian lives at this moment, in an aggressive escalation of the war. Their missile attacks are hitting targets within Kyiv. What Russia wants, is a simple message to US and European leaders, that they will ultimately win this war. It is not peace they desire but surrender.
As I see Trump packing his Cabinet with less than savvy conservative loyalists, including Tulsi Gabbard, nominated as Director of National Intelligence. (I am preparing a post on her) because they look good on Fox News.
I worry that Trump will sell Ukraine out and reward Russia for their invasion. President Zelensky stated that he would like the war to end through talks. It may have been a mistake, because it allows Trump to sell out Ukraine, cutting a deal between the US and Russia, that Zelensky will never be a participant.
Putin wants total victory and control of Kyiv. He would like Zelensky dead, so he can install a Ukrainian president that reports to Moscow.
It is a choice of helping Ukraine continue as a free, independent democracy, or a country ruled by a Russian puppet, like in Belarus and Chechnya. A lot rests with Trump.
I thought this link was factually correct and unbiased. It is interesting to note that her father switched from Republican to Democrat, while in 2022, she switched from Democrat to Republican. I will post more on Gabbard. She stated that the Ukraine invasion was a result of NATO expansion, which is really Putin’s explanation of why Russia had to invade Ukraine. He does not acknowledge the sovereignty of Ukraine.
As Trump assembles his next cabinet, Vladimir Putin has been assembling his troops for a major offensive. It is being called the counter offensive, because Ukrainian forces seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast region in August 2024.
Russia prepared for the attack by amassing approximately 50,000 troops according to recent reports. North Korea is reported to have sent 10,000 troops. It is unknown at this point how many North Koreans soldiers will be involved in combat.
What Russia was counting on, was that Ukraine would fight a purely defensive war. CNN reports:
The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.
Previously, Ukraine had air strikes inside Russia, hitting strictly military targets. Ukraine’s objective is to use the occupation of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia, in hopes of a negotiated settlement.
An old military saying is the best defense is a good offense. Russia has to divert troops it would needs to hold and advance the occupied region of Ukraine to the south of Kursk to launch the counter-offensive to re-take the Kursk region.
Russia’s Intent
The city of Sudzha, Russia is very close to the Russian border with Ukraine. With the help of North Korea, Russia will retake Sudzka, then cross over into Ukraine and take Sumy, which lies just 225 miles east of Kyiv.
So, the invasion started with Russia wanting to capture Kyiv rapidly with Belarus support, by sending tanks south over the Belarus-Ukraine border, beginning in Chernobyl. Now, it will be a drive from eastward from Sudzka, to Sumy and finally Kyiv.
US Policy
I am certain at this moment, the Biden administration is looking at everything possible to help defend Ukraine. They have allowed American contractors to enter Ukraine, to repair military equipment. Of vital importance, are the Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets. Also, per the link below, Biden is planning to send “billions of dollars” in defense aid before leaving office.
I don’t think Russia will make its move toward Sumy until after January 20, 2025. This is a rapidly evolving story, and I don’t know how well Ukraine can defend the captured territory in Russia.
The US has provided Ukraine with long range missile systems, but has not permitted Ukraine to use them against targets deep into Russia territory. It is obvious, that despite all efforts, the war escalates. Drones are being used on both sides. Fake drones are used to, in order to draw off the firing, so the real drones can be more effective.
Trump has stated often, that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine if he were president. Now, if the Sudzka invasion does takes place, it places Ukraine’s survival as an independent country at risk.
The forecasters were 100% right in all but 7 swing states. And of course, these seven states determined the election. My ranking allows changes to forecasts up to the day of the election, so forecasters had the advantage of exit polls.
Donald Trump won all 7 swing states, and won the election 312 to 226. Forecasters who predicted a Harris win, consistently erred in judging MI(15) and WI(10) as likely Democrat wins. Even the best ranked forecast (Polymarket, a betting site) made this error, causing them to gain 25 points. In my ranking, a perfect score is zero. I also penalize forecasters who include toss-ups in their final forecast. Penalty = toss-up EV’s/2.
I rate only forecasts which are published on websites, and include predictions by state. Some forecasters provide estimates of the popular vote, which I do not rate.
Also, I exclude from this table are forecasts that have toss-ups of 40 EV’s or more. See list of excluded forecasts under the table. Also, I do not show errors in states that Harris won, because there were none from these forecasts.
Only Polymarket site, a betting site, correctly predicted that Trump would win. Three websites showed Trump to be very close to winning. All forecasters who predicted Harris would win, also had her winning in PA.
I made the statement in a prior blog, that stated Trump had to win in PA in order to win the election. This was premised on the assumption that Harris would win in MI and WI. Since she lost in both of these states, Trump could have won the election even if he had lost in PA.
Rank
Forecaster
Predicted Outcome
Score
Toss-ups
Errors in states that Trump won
0
Actual
Trump won 312 to 226
0
0
1
Polymarket- Best forecast
Trump wins 287 to 251
25
0
MI(15), WI(10)
2,3
Kalshi, JHK Forecast
Trump ahead 262 to 241
32
34
MI(15)
4
270 to win, Consensus Map based on Polls
Trump ahead 268 to 251
39
19
MI(15), WI(10)
5
Split Ticket
Harris wins 270 to 268
44
0
MI(15), PA(19), WI(10)
6
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Harris wins, 276 to 262
50
0
MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
7
Electoral-Vote
Harris wins 276 to 246
58
16
MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
8
Election Daily
Harris wins 292 to246
66
0
GA(16), MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
9
cnalysis
Harris wins 308 to 230
72
0
GA(16), MI(15), NC(16) NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
I excluded forecasts from rankings because of total toss-ups exceeded 40 EV’s: 538 forecast, Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, Fox News, US News, CNN and Race to the WH. Real Clear Politics had the highest toss-ups, which included the standard seven swing states, plus NH and MN.
The only website predicting Donald Trump would win the election and provide a state by state electoral map was Polymarket. At least to my knowledge. Other websites provided multiple scenarios, showing how either candidate could win. I did not include these scenarios in my ratings.
Kalshi and JHK forecasts opted not to predict PA, NV and WI, thus they were penalized 17 points. Kalshi’s website is also a betting website. JHK uses a computer simulation model to predict outcomes.
At the very bottom, is cnalysis website, which considered all swing states except Arizona, would go to Harris, thus it erred in 6 of the 7 swing states.
If anyone knows of another forecast that I have omitted, please let me know. I am particularly interested in those who predicted Trump would win.
Final tallies are still incomplete in AZ and NV, but the other five swing states shows that they were all very close races. Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin by margins of 1.4 and 0.8%, respectively, the narrowest of all reported margins. North Carolina was won by Trump with a margin of 3.4%, the most of the 5 reported swing states.
Let’s start with a simple axiom: Presidents promise many things which they can not deliver.
Good example: We will build a wall and Mexico will pay for it. (no they didn’t and wall construction was more in terms of border barrier repair)
So, what I hope for is Trump actually does not do the things he promised. I want the US to actively support Ukraine. They deserve it. They have paid a high price to defend their country and keep their democracy. Russia aims to control Kyiv from Moscow, through a puppet government.
Support for NATO and other alliances are critical to halt Putin’s expansion. He will not stop at Ukraine. The America First, has all the elements of an isolationist policy, and appeasement to Putin. There are poorer European countries, such as Albania, who have not contributed as much as the US. I hope Trump does not deliver on his promise to tell Putin, “they’re yours.”
The founding of NATO is the result of two great and respected presidents, Presidents Truman and Eisenhower, a Democrat and Republican, who shared a vision of world peace through diplomacy and cooperation. The America First Initiative is likely to weaken alliances, if Trump chooses to pursue them. Russia and China will find opportunities to align with the worst of leaders in Asia and Africa, and strong economic and defense alliances will be vital.
If Trump delivers on his promises to begin a trade war with China, the result will be higher prices for goods in the US. Spending billions on hunting down undocumented workers will also drive up inflation and increase our debt. So, the America First, really backfires, and makes us America Last.
I am worried that Trump will once again, take a major step back in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Many economic measures to promote clean energy were in the Inflation Reduction Act. With Republicans in the majority in the Senate, and possibly the House, we will go back to relying on fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) for our energy needs.
Trump may pull us out of the Paris Climate Agreement, so we lose our seat at the table, in negotiating reductions in carbon emissions from all countries. Hurricane Helene and Milton should have been wake up calls, as global warming is real and can not be ignored.
So, my hope is the heated rhetoric from Trump’s rallies, has a chance to cool a bit, and the reality is that more can be accomplished by working together, rather than attacking Democrats.
As of 5:30 am, Donald Trump seems to have won 5 of the 7 swing states, which are AZ, GA, NC, NV and PA. Alaska has not yet reported, but Trump will win Alaska as it is a solid Red state. If I include Alaska in Trump’s totals, he now has 269 EV, one vote short of victory.The two big wins are PA and GA.
The major news networks “call” the election, based on set rules, established prior to the election. The Secretaries of State certify the results, and this can occur much later. Candidates are certainly allowed to announce “likely” victory, well before this, and I would take all this as just politics.
I expect all networks to hold off declaring an election victory for either candidate until there is nearly no doubt as to the winner. So, patience is needed. I expect recounts in several states.
This is an extremely close election. Calm and patience is need from all. Restraint is needed from the broadcast stations.
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