The forecasters were 100% right in all but 7 swing states. And of course, these seven states determined the election. My ranking allows changes to forecasts up to the day of the election, so forecasters had the advantage of exit polls.
Donald Trump won all 7 swing states, and won the election 312 to 226. Forecasters who predicted a Harris win, consistently erred in judging MI(15) and WI(10) as likely Democrat wins. Even the best ranked forecast (Polymarket, a betting site) made this error, causing them to gain 25 points. In my ranking, a perfect score is zero. I also penalize forecasters who include toss-ups in their final forecast. Penalty = toss-up EV’s/2.
I rate only forecasts which are published on websites, and include predictions by state. Some forecasters provide estimates of the popular vote, which I do not rate.
Also, I exclude from this table are forecasts that have toss-ups of 40 EV’s or more. See list of excluded forecasts under the table. Also, I do not show errors in states that Harris won, because there were none from these forecasts.
Only Polymarket site, a betting site, correctly predicted that Trump would win. Three websites showed Trump to be very close to winning. All forecasters who predicted Harris would win, also had her winning in PA.
I made the statement in a prior blog, that stated Trump had to win in PA in order to win the election. This was premised on the assumption that Harris would win in MI and WI. Since she lost in both of these states, Trump could have won the election even if he had lost in PA.
Rank
Forecaster
Predicted Outcome
Score
Toss-ups
Errors in states that Trump won
0
Actual
Trump won 312 to 226
0
0
1
Polymarket- Best forecast
Trump wins 287 to 251
25
0
MI(15), WI(10)
2,3
Kalshi, JHK Forecast
Trump ahead 262 to 241
32
34
MI(15)
4
270 to win, Consensus Map based on Polls
Trump ahead 268 to 251
39
19
MI(15), WI(10)
5
Split Ticket
Harris wins 270 to 268
44
0
MI(15), PA(19), WI(10)
6
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Harris wins, 276 to 262
50
0
MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
7
Electoral-Vote
Harris wins 276 to 246
58
16
MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
8
Election Daily
Harris wins 292 to246
66
0
GA(16), MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
9
cnalysis
Harris wins 308 to 230
72
0
GA(16), MI(15), NC(16) NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
I excluded forecasts from rankings because of total toss-ups exceeded 40 EV’s: 538 forecast, Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, Fox News, US News, CNN and Race to the WH. Real Clear Politics had the highest toss-ups, which included the standard seven swing states, plus NH and MN.
The only website predicting Donald Trump would win the election and provide a state by state electoral map was Polymarket. At least to my knowledge. Other websites provided multiple scenarios, showing how either candidate could win. I did not include these scenarios in my ratings.
Kalshi and JHK forecasts opted not to predict PA, NV and WI, thus they were penalized 17 points. Kalshi’s website is also a betting website. JHK uses a computer simulation model to predict outcomes.
At the very bottom, is cnalysis website, which considered all swing states except Arizona, would go to Harris, thus it erred in 6 of the 7 swing states.
If anyone knows of another forecast that I have omitted, please let me know. I am particularly interested in those who predicted Trump would win.
Final tallies are still incomplete in AZ and NV, but the other five swing states shows that they were all very close races. Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin by margins of 1.4 and 0.8%, respectively, the narrowest of all reported margins. North Carolina was won by Trump with a margin of 3.4%, the most of the 5 reported swing states.
Let’s start with a simple axiom: Presidents promise many things which they can not deliver.
Good example: We will build a wall and Mexico will pay for it. (no they didn’t and wall construction was more in terms of border barrier repair)
So, what I hope for is Trump actually does not do the things he promised. I want the US to actively support Ukraine. They deserve it. They have paid a high price to defend their country and keep their democracy. Russia aims to control Kyiv from Moscow, through a puppet government.
Support for NATO and other alliances are critical to halt Putin’s expansion. He will not stop at Ukraine. The America First, has all the elements of an isolationist policy, and appeasement to Putin. There are poorer European countries, such as Albania, who have not contributed as much as the US. I hope Trump does not deliver on his promise to tell Putin, “they’re yours.”
The founding of NATO is the result of two great and respected presidents, Presidents Truman and Eisenhower, a Democrat and Republican, who shared a vision of world peace through diplomacy and cooperation. The America First Initiative is likely to weaken alliances, if Trump chooses to pursue them. Russia and China will find opportunities to align with the worst of leaders in Asia and Africa, and strong economic and defense alliances will be vital.
If Trump delivers on his promises to begin a trade war with China, the result will be higher prices for goods in the US. Spending billions on hunting down undocumented workers will also drive up inflation and increase our debt. So, the America First, really backfires, and makes us America Last.
I am worried that Trump will once again, take a major step back in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Many economic measures to promote clean energy were in the Inflation Reduction Act. With Republicans in the majority in the Senate, and possibly the House, we will go back to relying on fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) for our energy needs.
Trump may pull us out of the Paris Climate Agreement, so we lose our seat at the table, in negotiating reductions in carbon emissions from all countries. Hurricane Helene and Milton should have been wake up calls, as global warming is real and can not be ignored.
So, my hope is the heated rhetoric from Trump’s rallies, has a chance to cool a bit, and the reality is that more can be accomplished by working together, rather than attacking Democrats.
The major news networks “call” the election, based on set rules, established prior to the election. The Secretaries of State certify the results, and this can occur much later. Candidates are certainly allowed to announce “likely” victory, well before this, and I would take all this as just politics.
I expect all networks to hold off declaring an election victory for either candidate until there is nearly no doubt as to the winner. So, patience is needed. I expect recounts in several states.
This is an extremely close election. Calm and patience is need from all. Restraint is needed from the broadcast stations.
Trump and Harris are very close in the polls in seven states. To re-iterate, MI and WI lean Democratic, while AZ and GA lean Republican.
So seven swing states reduces to 3: PA, NC and NV. If the “leans” predictions are right, then Trump must win PA, to win the election, plus either NC or NV. If Harris loses PA, she can win if she wins both NC and NV.
Probably best not to think of election day, but election month. Or three months if Trump loses.
Two forecasts (Cook’s Report and Inside Elections ) show 93 toss-up EV’s so it is not possible to know who might win the election.
Arizona (11 EV’s) Tilts Republican based on 8 websites and NYT poll.
Based on websites: 538 Model, Fox News, Split Ticket, JHK forecast, Race to WH, fivethirtyeight, electoral-vote, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, New York Times/Sienna Polls (Trump +4)
Georgia (16 EV’s) Slight Tilt- Rep, 4 sites, 1 contrary site tilt – Dem
Based on websites: 538 model, Sabato’s, Race to White House, Electoral-vote
Contrary opinion, Tilt Democratic, based on cnalysis
Michigan (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 5 sites,
Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, Split Ticket, Race to WH, Electorate-vote
Wisconsin (15 EV’s) Slight tilt -Dem, 4 sites
Based on Sabato’s, Kalshi Odds, cnalysis, electorate-vote
This leaves Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as races too close to call.
Note for Trump to win, he needs to pick up 24 more EV’s. If he can win only NC(16) + NV(6), it is not enough. Trump must win PA. Harris does not have to win PA, but if she loses PA, then she must win NC(16) and NV(6), which would put her at 273 EV’s, barely over the 270 EV’s to win.
Cnalysis is the most optimistic for Democrats, with Harris beating Trump 308 to 230. Its forecast considers Harris wins the all 3 swing states shown above (NV, NC and PA) plus GA.
Electoral-vote and Sabato’s site show Harris winning 276 to 246, with NC as a toss-up in electoral-vote and won by Trump in Sabato’s forecast.
Polymarket Odds shows Trump winning 287 to 251 by winning all 3 swing states.
The Dreaded Tied Election
Then there is the horrible scenario of a tie. Toss-up states of NC and NV are won by Trump as before, but if he can win in the Second Congressional District in NE, we have a tied election to be decided upon by Congress. Take my word for it, this is a mess.
The last I checked the 2nd Congressional District is considered a likely Democrat, so a win there would mean an extremely narrow win for Harris of 270 to 268. Note in this scenario, she wins PA and loses in NV and NC.
In sum, the presidential election of 2024 will be an extremely close race.
If you’ve followed by last several posts, you will know that I am hoping that Kamala Harris wins this election.
Recent television ads by Republicans are filled with lies. And Trump never backs down. This is just an example:
The Republican campaign highlighted a report from The New York Times that said, “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes.” The original report in the newspaper actually said, “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations.”
There is a big difference!
When confronted with his lies, there’s no apologies. For instance:
At a public event in mid-October, Trump repeated his lie that newly released federal figures show that there are 13,099 immigrants with homicide convictions who entered the country “during their administration.” CNN and others had been pointing out for two weeks that these figures are about people who entered the country over decades, including Trump’s own administration, not just under Biden and Harris.
Trump conceded he was aware of this: he said quickly that “they” tried to say the data covered a “longer” period than just the Biden presidency.
Again, it’s the big “They.” Of course he is right, and “They” are wrong.
RFK, Jr. is even worse. “They” goes back a long time, blaming just about every administration for decades, and nearly every department from the FBI, Department of Justice, CIA, EPA and more recently, USDA, HHS (Health and Human Service) and CDC. He is great working the paranoid and extremist right wing, who sees everything as one huge conspiracy.
TV ads suggest Kamala Harris would ban fracking, and that she admitted this cause gas prices would spike. Actually, this came from the Trump’s outgoing Secretary of Energy, Secretary Dan Brouillette, just before Trump left office, not from Kamala Harris or Joe Biden.
When Biden says something that is wrong or misinterpreted, he’s quick to correct himself. He called the comedian that referred to Puerto Rico as an island of garbage, as the real garbage. The comedian was obviously a Trump supporter, but Biden was not calling all Trumps’ supporters garbage. Just one.
But Harris, not Biden is running. I want a president who can correct themselves, and give us the truth. I have a much better chance with Kamala Harris.
So, vote wisely. Character matters, because there will be new issues in the coming years. I want a president who is deciding what is best for the American people, not the powerful conservative Republican lobbyists. Come to think about it, they constitute the real swamp, and Trump depends on their support.
Trump will issue pardons for the convicted rioters who smashed window, assaulted Capitol police and rampaged through the Capitol building. Republicans used to be tough law and order supporters. But, these rioters had on MAGA caps, so whatever they did was just fine.
Donald Trump has said January 6, 2021 was a day of love. Never mind that approximately 140 Capitol police were injured. Seven people died in connection to the riots. No love there.
He will go on a firing spree, and both the FBI and the DOJ will suffer. Good people, who do their job, will leave. He will pack government, not with people who can get things done, but who can weaken the agencies that they run.
Donald Trump believes he is above the law. And the same goes for all his supporters, so long as they were MAGA hats.
It is political aggression. Anger motivates people into action. But anger as a result of a stream of lies, will motivate people to make the wrong choices.
Hurricane Milton took 32 lives and destroy homes, particularly in Florida. People in the affected areas are struggling to put their lives back together. And Trump is lying about FEMA, that they depleted all their money paying for housing for immigrants, and now they have no money to help the poor victims.
I really liked the way super Republican Governor DeSantis put it, that he hadn’t been in touch with Biden, because FEMA gave this state, Florida, everything they asked for. And he added, that if they don’t provide everything, then he’s calling. That’s exactly what FEMA does, partner with the states in helping to rebuild.
The anger is misdirected at FEMA when it should really be directed at Trump for playing politics with a national disaster.
Demonizing Immigrants
And what Trump said about immigrants did make me angry, not because my mother was an immigrant, and so was my wife, but because his claims were just a huge pack of lies. And people were cheering in Madison Garden, when they should have been pouring out of the stadium in disgust.
Trump said Harris “has imported criminal migrants from prisons and jails, insane asylums and mental institutions from all around the world, from Venezuela to the Congo.” Pure MAGA hate speech, and of course it’s a terrible lie. Many immigrants with criminal records have been denied entry in the US. Communities with high immigrant populations have less violent crime. Kamala Harris was not put in charge of border security.
Trump said Harris “vowed to abolish” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Of course, this is false. Harris wants to hire many more border agents. The bill that Trump had Congress kill, included hiring many more judges to hear (and usually dismiss) amnesty cases. Harris will get the 2024 Immigration bill passed. Donald Trump will not, and keep it a hot political issue.
This is a new one, which gets down right weird. Trump said Harris “called for free sex change operations on illegal aliens in detention at taxpayer expense.” First, it really isn’t an issue, because this has never happened with a detained immigrant. Criminals can not be denied medical treatment, so there has been just two inmates who have sex change operation. This is obviously another “hot button” hate issue, combining immigrants with all kinds of other problems.
Violent Crime is way up.
I’m certain that a lot of people went home after watching Trump, and thought how they could better protect their families. Trump said, “Your crime is through the roof” and that newly released statistics showed that “crime was up 45%” under the Biden-Harris administration.
The latest six months data for 2024, showed just the opposite, violent crime was substantially down.
The new numbers show murders from January to June dropped 23% compared with the same period in 2023, while violent crime fell 10% and reported rapes decreased by 18%. Aggravated assaults during that period decreased 8% year over year, according to the data, while robberies fell 14% and reported property crime was down 13%. These are preliminary numbers as not every city has reported.
The 2023 report, which included figures from every major city in the nation, showed a dramatic 12% drop in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, as well as a 3% fall in violent crime.
I will not go into detail about the many lies regarding the so called “rigged” 2020 election, the Department of Justice investigation, tariffs or the economy. Nor Trump’s appeasement when it comes to Ukraine. His denial of climate change, means we lose our seat at the table, negotiating with the other world leaders on carbon emissions. We will lose four years in the needed transition from non-renewable fossil fuels. California forest fires and two devastating hurricanes are telling us extreme weather events are very real. Trump isn’t capable of addressing global problems, period. He will choose Russia over Europe and weaken NATO. No doubt about it.
Trump’s chosen path to the White House must be rejected
Fear and lies should not be the path to the White House. Trump is using fear to mobilize his supporters to the polls. Without the non-stop lies, Trump could not get elected.
He depends on his supporter not questioning what he says. A little fact checking shows an abundance of lies on just about every topic. (see links at the end)
If you agree with this posting, feel free to pass it on. An informed electorate is necessary part of holding our democracy together. Trump gives his supporters what they want to hear – disinformation and is a divider, not a uniter. On stage with Trump, there were no former Republican candidates, nor members of his former cabinet. Nor the Vice President, Mike Pence, who Trump regularly disparages.
He lost his more moderate supporters as he supported radical groups who assembled on January 6 to attack the Capitol, and he just watched the violence on television for two hours without making a single phone call. After all, they were wearing MAGA caps as they battled with Capitol police. Remember?
The presidential race is extremely close. In the US, we chose our president, so please vote.
I tried to make these summaries as short as possible. For each case, there is massive political commentary on both sides. For each of these cases, I have listed the relevant links at the end of this posting.
My conclusion is that in each case, the guilt or innocence of Donald Trump, must be decided in a courtroom, not on social media. The outcome of the two federal criminal cases should not be decided because Donald Trump won the presidential election and could install a partisan Attorney General to shield him from being accountable for his illegal actions.
FEDERAL CRIMINAL CASES
Classified Documents Case: Status, Dismissed but under appeal by the Department of Justice
On June 13, 2023, Donald Trump plead not guilty to all 37 counts. His defense team filed many pre-trial motions. Judge Aileen Cannon postponed the start of the trial from May 2024 to July 2024, then on July 15, 2024 dismissed the case completely, ruling that the appointment of Special Counsel, Jack Smith, was a violation of the US Constitution. The dismissal of the case is being appealed.
On September 6, 2023, again citing the Presidential Records Act, Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt: “I’m allowed to do whatever I want.”
On September 14, 2023, Trump was interviewed by Megyn Kelly for SiriusXM. He said: “I’m allowed to take these documents, classified or not classified. And frankly, when I have them, they become unclassified. People think you have to go through a ritual. You don’t — at least in my opinion, you don’t.”
Many fact checking websites have disputed Trump’s claims. CNN fact checked the claim that he has the right to all documents under the Presidential Records Act. Contrary to Trump’s claim, the classified document belong to the National Archives. An excellent summary of seven false claims by Trump is summarized in the link below:
A ruling by the Appellate Court will happen after the election. It may occur before inauguration day, but this doesn’t really matter, as there will be many motions after the court rules, to take us pass January 20, 2025.
If Trump is elected, he has the power to have the case against him dismissed and abolish the Special Counsel, Jack Smith. If Kamala Harris is elected, I believe she will respect the Special Counsel obligation to bring this case to trial, and show no favoritism. The same goes for the January 6 Election Interference case.
January 6 Election Obstruction Case, Active and in pre-trial motions
It looked for a while the court trial is case would start before the election. This all changed with a 6-3 decision by the US Supreme Court that Trump in July 2024, providing partial immunity to Trump for official actions.
They further complicated the case. Both Trump’s lawyers and the Special Counsel will submit briefs related to the immunity issue. Trump’s lawyers have until November 7 to submit their brief. Ultimately no matter how Judge Chutkan rules, the decision will be appealed and likely end up in the Supreme Court in 2025.
Of course, if Trump is elected, he will be make sure the case is dismissed.
MUNICIPAL and STATE CASES
If re-elected, Trump can not get these cases dismissed.
Hush Money Case: Status, awaiting sentencing
Donald Trump was convicted in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels near the end of the 2016 presidential campaign. This was the unanimous decision by a jury. Attorneys for Trump have the conviction be dismissed based on the Supreme Court’s ruling on Presidential Immunity case.
Judge Merchan will rule on November 14, on the immunity issue. I suspect Trump will lose this case. He will sentence Trump on November 26. I feel Judge Merchan made the right decision to delay the sentencing until after the election. Trump’s legal team always appeals any decision, and the case will not end on November 26. If fact, Trump has the legal right to appeal the conviction, after sentencing. I believe the sentence will be stayed (postponed) pending the results of the appeals.
Prosecutor Alvin Bragg did not object to the Trump’s request, and simply responded that he would accept the judge’s decision. This was again, absolutely right, as he did not want to make this case appear as a partisan case against a presidential candidate.
Trump addressed his sentencing hearing being postponed during his speech at the Fraternal Order of Police in Charlotte, North Carolina. he argued that it was postponed because people realized “there was no case,” leaning into his typical attack lines calling the case against him a “witch hunt.”
Merchan said the delay should help “avoid any appearance — however unwarranted — that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching Presidential election in which the Defendant is a candidate.” This is obviously contrary to what Trump told the police organization.
Georgia RICO Election Interference Case, Active and under appeal
A grand jury indicted Trump and 18 other defendants on August 14, 2023. The discovery that the prosecuting attorney Fani Willis was having an affair with the lead attorney, Nathan Wade, lead to hearings and ultimately a decision by the Judge McAfee that either Nathan Wade or Fani Willis should be removed from the case. Attorney Wade resigned, however Trump’s lawyers are now appealing this decision, and would like Fani Willis to resign. If the appeal is successful, the case could be dismissed. Oral arguments in this appeal have been scheduled for December 5, 2024.
A second complicating issue is the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity. Certain evidence may be excluded based on their ruling. This may result in more appeals and delays.
Four defendants have pleaded guilty. This leaves 14 defendants including Trump, to stand trial. The trial can be televised. I assume that since this is a criminal trial, Trump’s presence will be required.
Summary
Only one of the four criminal cases has gone to trial. The delays caused by pre-trial motion worked.
Soon after the election, I predict that the appellate court will reverse Judge Cannon’s dismissal of the Classified Documents case. Judge Cannon did not rule on several pre-trial motions.
Trump will, if elected, get the two federal cases dismissed. I believe this is very wrong. He should stand trial just like any other American. No one is above the law.
Pennsylvania is one of the most important swing states. In rallies in Reading and Scranton, PA, he lied 40 times. Many of them were “oldies” but he had a few new ones. He must be trolling social media, to keep his stock of lies up to date. The link below has 40 lies, which I numbered for reference. I’m not going in exact chronological order.
Hurricane recovery and FEMA is covered in Lies 1,2 and 3, and I doubt anything Trump said about FEMA having run out of money or workers, was seriously believed, even at his rallies. The claim that FEMA funds were diverted to help illegal immigrants come in, has been debunked many times. As noted, the comment “Harris didn’t send anything or anybody” has been solidly debunked. Even Governor DeSantis said that FEMA has given Florida everything they requested.
Trump has often claimed that Harris is an illegitimate candidate and not entitled to donations made to Biden. I do not see the same claim made at these rallies, but lie #5 comes close, with “they are cheatin’ dogs.” He has said previously, that the only way he can lose, is if the Democrats cheat. So, it is likely, if Trump loses, he will restart a “Stop the Steal” effort once again. He has claimed with no evidence that non-citizens have been allowed to vote.
Energy policy lies were a major part of the rallies. See #10 (Wind power), #11 (electric vehicles) and #12 (Paris climate accords). Right now, there are incentives to provide electric vehicles, based on laws passed by Congress. Lie #12 is really outrageous, that the Paris climate accords cost us, a trillion dollars, while some other countries didn’t have to pay.
It is very evident that more extreme weather, including flooding, hurricanes and wildfires, are on the increase. The best hope to reduce climate change is through the mechanisms set up by the Paris climate accords, where developed countries contribute to a fund, to help with alternative energy projects worldwide. I have stated before, that if Trump pulls out of the Paris accords, we give up our seat at the table.
Immigration lies are abundant at rallies, and the Pennsylvania rallies were no exception. Lie #1 links the broke FEMA and broken immigration policy. “They have no money. You know where they gave the money? To illegal immigrants coming in.” Trump launched into a series of lies (#14 to 18) demonizing immigrants and blaming Venezuela and many other unspecified countries, as sending their unwanted citizens to the US.
Trump always lies about crowd size. In 2020, it was always my rallies are bigger than Biden’s or Obama’s, and it seemed childish. And he will never back down. His inauguration crowd was 1.5 million people, while the White House stated it was approximately 750,000 people. He even claimed that a photo of Harris and Walz arrival in Michigan had been altered using AI. Of course, this was baseless, but it is standard for Trump to steal the media’s attention, with a bogus statement.
He claimed his rally in Butler, PA, the crowd was over 100,000 people, while Secret Service estimate was 24,000 people. [lie #22] The assassination attempt was very tragic, but Trump couldn’t help from embellishing it. [lie #23] He said that before he got up, he asked the Secret Service how many were killed, and the response was three people. The microphone was still on, and none of this conversation happened.
Endorsements are is very important. He said “We got the firefighters endorse us, you probably heard.” [Lie #24] If they heard this, it was a lie. The International Association of Firefighters did not endorse either candidate. Of course, a week prior, Trump shared an posting that the CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon had endorse him. Dimon announced that he had not endorsed him. Trump shared another posting, that Taylor Swift had endorsed him.
A lot of the lies are ones we’ve heard before. Leaving Afghanistan in 2021, we lost a lot of military equipment. The Pentagon estimates 7.4 billion dollars was lost,and Trump claims 85 billion dollars. [#29] A total of 18.6 billion was spent on equipment during the war, so Trump’s number is baseless.
And, of course, he always is the victim of baseless criminal prosecution. The Classified Documents case is not over. We’ve all seen the photos of boxes of classified documents stacked in ballrooms and bathroom closets at Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach.
His lies on this one have varied over time. One was these were not classified documents. The second was he was not involved in the packing or storage of the documents. Now, of he can correctly state that all charges have been dismissed by the trial judge, but it’s not over. I predict that Appellate Court will overturn Judge Cannon’s ruling and put the case back on track. At the rallies, Trump claimed that “I had the Presidential Records Act; I was totally allowed to do it.” [lie #25] The Act says the National Archives has custody.
Under “Harris and Taxes” Trump used an edited video clip to claim Harris wanted to raise taxes, by 70 or 80%. [Lie #38, second to last]. Trump is pouring millions of money into television ads in swing states with the same edited videos. It sad that certain stations have permitted these adds.
A lot of old lies, on the “corrupt Biden family” dating back to the Trump-Biden debate. Lie #31 was concerning money received by Hunter Biden. “Chris Wallace and a question about the Biden family” was about something that just didn’t happen at the debate, or at least not the way Trump recalled it.
The very last lie #40 looks a bit dated, but it is still a good fake gaffe. “But the worst was when he [Biden] was in New Hampshire and he said, ‘It’s great to be in Florida.’ It is a fake gaffe because it didn’t happen. Biden is known for gaffes, but Trump has told some beauties of his own.
“Trump mistook a wildlife refuge in Alaska for an Afghan airbase. His brains are turning to mush,” wrote one of the critics, author Stephen King, on social media.
So, fact checkers caught 40 lies in two rallies. It was likely a lie every 2 minutes, like being sprayed with Trump’s lies.
Probably the worse ones, were on immigrants.
” Trump repeated his false claim that ‘the prison population all over the world is down, because they put them in our country.’ ”
A close second “Pants on Fire” lie, was #12, that the Paris accords on climate change would have cost us a trillion dollars. As correctly noted, we have paid one billion out of the three billion dollars commitment.
As I stated before, we don’t need to talk about climate models anymore. The unusually high temperatures of water in the Bahamas, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, can turn a tropical storm into a monster of a hurricane. The climate models predicted more extreme weather if we didn’t control carbon emissions. We got it, and it’s name is Milton.
These speeches laden with falsehoods were for his supporters only, who I guess still have blinders on.
The above graph shows the good news. Our overall trade deficit, with other countries around the world has been going down in the three years of the Biden administration.
In fact, our trade deficit with China has also been going down. Everyday, if we tune into news, we hear bad news and it makes people nervous. The cost of manufacturing in many countries is less expensive. So, it is very much in the spirit of providing products at lower costs, that companies will outsource production.
Companies usually boast of how much of their goods are sold abroad. As I travel, it may seem odd, but the US presence can be seen in many countries. People want to stay in Marriott Hotels, be it in China or Saudi Arabia.
The US has a large trade deficit with China. In 2023, this deficit was 367 billion dollars. We have had a trade deficit with China for four decades. Much of what Trump says about the trade deficit with China is highly exaggerated. This is explained well in the link from Factcheck.org ,
From Factcheck, “The total U.S. trade deficit with China in goods and services in 2023 was about $252 billion, the lowest it has been in 14 years. Former President Donald Trump was way off when he falsely claimed that the U.S.-China trade gap is about four times as high.”
There are 3 great fallacy of Trump’s tariff plans. First is that we live in a global economy, and when fewer products are imported from China, then more are imported from other countries. During Trump’s time in office, our trade deficit increased.
Second, is that the importers will pass on the cost of tariffs in the form of higher prices to consumers in the US. So, the billions of dollars the government is receiving is absorbed by US consumers, so it makes products in the US more expensive.
The third fallacy, and it has been proven many times, is that imposing tariffs on China goods, will result in tariffs on exported US goods, so it is a lose-lose situation.
Per the link with Brookings Institute, “The ensuing trade war cost the U.S. economy nearly 300,000 jobs. The tariffs served as a regressive tax on imported goods that were primarily borne by American consumers.”
The bottom line is trade wars, cost jobs, and act as a tax on consumers. Trump always exaggerates the problem and extremely simplify the solution. He is simply playing to his base and using animosity towards China to promote trade wars. I fear it will end badly, and you know it will be blamed somehow on Democrats.
Harris will take a more global approach to trade, and it is my expectation, is that tariffs will be reduced through negotiations with China. Additional tax incentives to US manufacturers will improve the trade imbalance.
By electing Kamala Harris, at a minimum, we get a president who will listen to economists, instead of Trump’s clashes with them. You will have a president that works with other world leaders, because fair trade is really an international issue.
Latest numbers on inflation and job growth were pretty good. For election forecasters, these are the “pocketbook” factors, which generally make the electorate like or dislike the incumbent.
Pretty big topic. I start with a few truisms. We complain more than we praise. We use words like prices have soared, but rarely talk about prices plummeting. Increasing demand for many commodities, cause prices to go up, as it takes time for supply to catch up for demand.
During an election year, we attribute inflation more on who is president than anything else. We hate strong economies because prices go up, and poor economies, because unemployment goes up. And the last truism, is that good government policies take time to see the benefits, and someone else can be running the government by that time.
We also over-react to headlines. There always at least one commentator who has drastic remedies, which come from exaggerated claims. For example egg prices. We all survived the egg crisis.
Egg prices are now $3.82 a dozen. That’s down from nearly $5.00 a dozen, but nobody is going around and saying the Biden administration did a great job in bringing down the cost of eggs. In the US, we had the largest bird flu epidemic in our history and 101 million chickens were slaughtered. It takes time to replace the flock. Government does help with agricultural losses, something we had to learn the hard way during the depression. But farmers still are part of the solution. Plus a strong economy means that demand is still good, even at higher prices.
Of course, eggs are not the problem. I use it simply to illustrate that higher prices and a stable demand provides strong motivation of farmers to replace their flocks. During Covid, the cost of many goods and services plummeted and unemployment soared. So, be careful what you wish for. Covid wasn’t Trump’s fault, and egg prices were not Biden’s fault.
Economists are usually taking a much longer view. In March 2020, nobody really knew how long the epidemic was going to last. Many people in the hospitality and retail sector were losing their jobs. It was terrible for them, but the stimulus money helped some. Online courses allowed many to continue their education. It was mostly a case of adapting to a very different economy. We have since recovered.
The latest release of inflation index (Urban Consumer Price Index) shows a 2.3% increase in prices over last year. This increase doesn’t seem too bad. However, we are weeks away from the election so there is a lot of cherry picking of these numbers. Just for the record, unemployment and overall inflation has not skyrocketed this year. It has gone down.
Gasoline prices are down 10% and fuel oil down 7%, from last year. Average cost at the pump is $3.10/gal for regular gas. Many factors affect gas prices, but certainly high prices in 2022, gave homeowners a big incentive to consider energy saving measures like using LED lighting for their home and solar panels for both heating and power generation. Federal programs to provide incentives for electric vehicles purchases, also help in reducing the demand for gasoline.
Trump has an objective to cut people’s energy cost in half:
“If you make doughnuts, if you make cars – whatever you make, energy is a big deal, and we’re going to get that – it’s my ambition to get your energy bill within 12 months down 50%.”
Energy analyst Patrick De Haan, understood the mechanisms of supply and demand, in a recent NPR interview:
“It was President Biden that had eliminated leases in some areas on federal land. Now, keep in mind, federal land is a very small total of U.S. oil production on federal land, so it wouldn’t have a big impact, but ultimately, there are some things that the president can do to incentivize oil companies, but ultimately, it’s at oil companies’ whims if they’d like to increase production or not. And should oil prices decline to the point the president likes, it would be at a point where many oil companies are losing money on every barrel.”
Gas prices will not go to $1.50/gallon under Trump, unless the economy is really broken and unemployment is sky high. Gas prices in my area are 10% higher at around $3.30/gallon. New supply is directly related to new investments in exploration, which can take more than five years to bring onstream and many projects have taken over a decade, before production.
The cost of renting an apartment is in general higher on year-over-year basis. The average rent of an apartment in the US is about $2000/month. In Miami, it’s $1,000 more, around $3,000/month. According to Zillow, rents over the last year have been going down.
Kamala Harris has a housing plan to help with rising prices. It’s focused on helping first time home buyers. For apartment renters, price fixing is real, and the intent is to stop free competition. So, while it didn’t make headline news, the Justice Department sued RealPages for using AI intelligence to set rental prices, in violation of antitrust laws.
I am certain Kamala Harris will give the Department of Justice all the support it needs, in pursuing antitrust lawsuits, like these to end price fixing of apartment rents. As a candidate collecting rents, rather than paying them, Donald Trump will likely be on the side of RealPages in fixing rents. Antitrust cases are not easily won.
Trump will install a business friendly Attorney General, and antitrust litigation will be history. He did his best to destroy the Consumer Finance Protection Agency, which intervened on the side of consumers in dishonest payday loan businesses, very similar to illegal loan sharking.
If the economy is doing well, it will take time for new apartments and houses to be built. So, the benefit to the housing plan will take time, if she can get it through the Republican controlled Congress.
So, Republicans are playing a very old game, and that is to attack the incumbent. Of course, the problem has been getting anything through the Republican led Congress which wants to make Biden look bad. Trump successfully killed the 2024 immigration bill, so he could tell the nation that our immigration policy was broken.
I’ll end this blog with a couple of links. One is a short video clip from Barrack Obama, with a very simple message. It can take years for bills to become law, and their impact can be in terms of decades. Trump cut taxes for the very wealthy, and our debt went up in the years that followed.
The second short link is about a totally false ad that Trump is using, that shows a video clip of Kamala Harris saying she will raise taxes. The video clip has been edited, and her comments were directed at the very wealthy. This is followed with another lie, that her tax policies will cost Americans $2580 per year. Actually, she has not proposed any such tax. Her tax increases are all focused on the wealthiest of Americans.
Of course, we have one candidate who gets his support from billionaires, like Elon Musk, who might be affected. Also, Donald Trump is able to show loses in his properties, so he pays nearly no tax.
So, yes the economy and tax policies are very hot issues in the election. I urge people not to vote for Trump and his doctored up video clips, and other dishonest actions. And the boast that he will drop the price of gas in half- are we that naive?
The economy may falter in the years ahead, but I feel she will continue to pursue good economic policies over politics.
CNN headlines: AI helped the feds catch $1 billion of fraud in one year. And it’s just getting started
The US Treasury is getting smarter on catching check frauds. Machine learning (ML) is a subset of AI. The ML algorithms can identify patterns and anomalies that indicate fraudulent behavior, making it possible for businesses to detect and prevent fraud in real time.
Forbes article from 2023, goes into more detail on different approaches. There are many articles on the internet. I selected this one, as it is not promoting one particle system.
Now, here’s the problem. If Trump gets elected, I expect fraud investigations will not have much priority. In fact, he may hate the Treasury Department and the Department of Justice efforts to investigate fraud using machine learning tools to comb through millions of records to find patterns of fraud.
It is because the Trump organization has been convicted of massive business fraud and must pay 464 million dollars (includes accrued interest). The case is now in the Appellate Court, which can reduce the fine. The bail required to proceed with the appeals was reduced.
Trump record of pardons and commutations is definitely towards very wealthy and corrupt business leaders.
In December 2020, Trump commuted the sentence of Philip Esformes who was convicted of a 1.6 billion dollar medicare fraud scheme. Prosecutors described him as the linchpin of the “largest single criminal health care fraud case ever brought against individuals by the Department of Justice.” The served 4 years in prison before Trump freed him.
It is totally hypocritical to claim that eliminating Medicare fraud is a priority, and then pardon those who commit massive fraud.
Philip Esformes was recently arrested on a domestic violence charge.
I am very glad to see people convicted of fraud and obstruction of justice get convicted.
Republicans used to be the law and order party. The law and order candidates in 2024 are Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. No pardons for the wealthy, Democrat and Republican.
The 1950’s was a good time for some, and a bad time from others. Soldiers, latinos, blacks, whites and every ethnic group imaginable, fought the war together. They served this country and on returning home, found there were neighborhoods where they couldn’t live, restaurants where they couldn’t eat, and schools where they could not send their children. Another words, it was a different world without an uniform.
Ethnic and racial hatred were strong in my parents era, and Trump is re-igniting these hatreds, in this last month before the election. He attacked Barrack Obama, claiming he was an illegitimate president. He claimed Obama was born in Kenya, Africa. It was of course, total nonsense, but Trump swore he had proof. Trump lies, and he never admits when proven wrong.
Now, it is the Haitian immigrants who have managed to the escape the earthquake or turmoil in Haiti, and live and work legally in our country under temporary protected status. The CNN special last night, highlighted the community of Springfield, Ohio, where many Haitians live. They are refugees, as their lives were in danger from roaming gangs which controlled much of the country. The refugees had to prove to immigration that their lives were in danger, based on their positions within the government, such as a policeman or politician.
The claim that “immigrants” are taking our homes has been taken way out of context. Strong housing demand in a particular area is good. It means that in a particular area, people are finding jobs and can afford the “American dream” of their own house. So, strong housing demand creates a building boom, exactly what has happened in Springfield, Ohio. See CNN link below.
I will not repeat in this blog, all the terrible things Trump has said about immigrants. He singled out the Haitians living in one small community. Actually, the truth is, the Haitians are contributing to the community, working and paying taxes and crime rates have come down.
My grandparents immigrated from France in the 1930’s with a daughter that needed medical treatment. My grandmother went shopping in department stores, not to buy clothes, but so she copy the clothes and sew at home clothes for her 3 daughters and son. Her son was a war hero during World War II, and her children studied at top universities, including Columbia University and Harvard.
So, as I watched the CNN special, my heart went out to the families of Haitians, as they look for work, pay taxes and raise families, just as my grandparents did.
JD Vance stated that the Haitians were illegal, but this was a lie. Trump has gone further, describing anyone who is in the country without documents as a criminal. This would be anyone who has overstayed their visa, or through no fault of their own, missed filing deadlines for visa extensions. He has promised a program to search for, and deport every illegal immigrant. He can make it much more difficult for other refugees from the bombed out areas of Ukraine, and war victims from Afghanistan to migrate to the US.
Trump’s efforts to denigrate and demonize immigrants, appeals to radical white supremacy groups, who have no respect for the law. They are blinded by the hyper nationalism of the MAGA movement. These groups believe in a purity of race ideas espoused by fascists.
This is not the era of the KKK nor the McCarthy era of the 1950. In the 1950’s, there were grand conspiracy theories that communism was like a disease and the government had to question the patriotism of prominent Americans and certain activities, like civil rights marches were considered “Unamerican.” This is why the FBI kept a file on Martin Luther King. The days of “separate but equal” are gone.
The way forward was in the bipartisan Immigration Act of 2024, which would hire more judges to hear amnesty cases. Trump got Congress to kill this bill because it would hurt his re-election campaign.
So, Harris message is right for our times. “We can’t go back.”
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We’ve had our wake up calls. Cautionary tales, if you will. If we can just learn from them, and not be blindsided by Trump’s continuous trail of lies spread by Fox News and others.
Hurricane Milton should be a wake up call. Russia seizure of Crimea, a part of Ukraine, was another wake up call. The storming of the US Capital, and cries to hang Mike Pence, with sitting President, who did nothing for 2 full hours- that certainly should have been a wake up call. Trump needs to be held accountable along with about six administrative accomplices.
And yes, we have very serious problems with fentanyl epidemic in the US. We need action now, not partisan politics from Republicans, who blocked the immigration bill of 2024, because that’s what Trump wanted.
You can’t select your issues – you have to deal with them.
President Trump downplayed Covid-19 epidemic. He dismissed climate change in the debates, like its not our problem because our air and water are clean. Global challenges need cooperation and compromise. He is all about what is best for his base, and will embrace absurd conspiracy theories if it gain him a few extra votes.
We can’t go back to the early 1970’s when global warming was a theory
Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis dismissed climate change as cause of hurricane. The warming of the Gulf of Mexico, and the coastal areas of the Atlantic (Bahamas and Caribbean) our critical factors turning what might have been a tropical storm into a furious and extremely wet hurricane, causing massive flooding. We have created a hurricane incubator right on our doorstep, and the next hurricane may be plowing into very beautiful coastal cities like Galveston, New Orleans or Key West.
The scientific community understands why these extreme weather events (wildfires, floods, and hurricanes are related. Yes, we have had them before, but intensity and destruction is at a whole new level. Kamala Harris will push forward with many practical ways to reduce our energy consumption, and reliance on fossil fuels. And so vital to our challenge is getting China and India at the negotiating table to cut their emissions.
We have to support Brazil also in their efforts to stop rainforest destruction. Trump supported President Bolsonaro when he ignored the burning of millions of acres of rainforest, not understanding the importance to carbon dioxide absorption by the forest vegetation.
Trump lies about electric car mandates, just like he lie about everything else. There are government incentives, which make sense. Trump policy has not changed, since he attacked climate change as a hoax, and put in place the most ineffective cabinet secretaries in the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency, heavily influenced by the coal industry. It was a fiasco.
We can’t go back to year 2016, when Trump pulled out of the Paris Accords. It was our best chance of negotiating with other developed countries on setting goals of reducing carbon emission. And we certainly can’t go back to the early 1970’s when climate change was a theory. Now, we see the real impact and it is lost homes and lives.
We can’t go backto enormous dependence of fossil fuels
Harris will lead our country to take practical measures to reduce our carbon emissions. She is for expansion of our nuclear energy programs. Federal programs which encourage people to buy electric vehicles and expansion of recharge stations is critical to the transition to greener fuels. Trump will gut the IRA, with these vital incentives. Wind and solar power has gone from theory to a real source of renewable energy.
We can’t go back to 1940 either!
This was a time when many in our country felt Hitler could be dealt with diplomatically. Also, the sentiment was that we could take care of the problems in our country and let Europe take care of their problems, namely Germany. Of course, their problems became our problems on at 7:18 am on December 7, 1941, when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. Appeasement of Germany wasn’t the solution in World War II, and appeasement of Putin in 2024 by giving them a piece of Ukraine will not satisfy Russia.
This is why Trump is being strongly opposed by Trump’s former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, and former Secretary of Defense, James Mattis. The were in the room, when Trump was actually praising former dictators.
Harris will continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, without sending US troops. Most importantly, this aid will be coordinated with our European allies.
We can’t go back to 1972 either – the Nixon years
The era of Richard Nixon, tested how much a president could hide from the American people, when he broke the law. Nixon crime was obstruction of justice and I feel he knew this was illegal. Trump really feels he can wantonly break the laws with no consequences.
As President, he will subvert the Department of Justice to make it the most partisan department in the United States. He will dismiss only Special Counsels that are investigating him and other Republicans. He really relates to powerful and rich people who committed business and tax fraud. He will pardon corrupt attorneys, claiming they were framed by the government. The only criteria will be if they help him. Trump believes he and his allies are above the law. This is how a democracy erodes into an autocracy.
Harris will allow the Department of Justice to proceed with criminal investigations, regardless of status and political parties. She will keep a hands off approach to criminal investigations by the FBI and DOJ.
Bottom Line:
It is all about progress. Climate change from carbon emissions in the 1970’s was theory, built mainly form computer modeling. In 2024, the evidence on the ground is overwhelming, including Hurricane Milton. It isn’t a China Hoax.
Carbon emissions can be reduced. We can’t go back to our dependence on fossil fuels. Today, 80% of solar panels are made in the US, and this is good for employment. We win the trade war by making better products.
We can’t appease Putin. We must support Ukraine. Trump has said he will end the war in one day. Yes, by cutting off Ukraine from all military assistance, lifting sanctions on Russia and telling Putin that Ukraine is theirs.
We can not put Trump back in the White House, because he will make the Department of Justice and the FBI, the two most partisan and corrupt departments in government, since the era of Nixon. Nixon at least resigned when he was caught. Trump feels he is above the law.
Kamala Harris has provided a way forward, which will require compromise and cooperation. Trump is just the same hot rhetoric. We can’t go back. Trump will make America worse.
Vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz to keep moving forward.
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