2024 elections

Milton and other 2024 Hurricanes

by Dave

Milton will hit Tampa Bay tomorrow. This one is very bad and everyone in the mandatory evacuation areas must leave right now. Period. Your life is far more precious than your possessions.

Kudos go to Governor DeSantis, and the Florida Division of Emergency Management along with Deanne Criswell, Administrator of FEMA for doing an outstanding job in preparing for Milton. See links at end of this blog.

Milton is the 13th “named” storm. Wikipedia provides an excellent summary of all prior named tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to December 1) as tracked by NOAA. They have the satellite photos of each hurricane.

Wikipedia: 2024 Hurricanes Season

Prior to Helene (storm #8), five storms resulted in deaths during or after the storm. These storms and the number of fatalities were Alberto (1), Beryl (70), Chris (5), Debby(10) and Ernesto(3). Following Ernesto, Francine resulted in 4 injuries, and 1.5 billion dollars of damages in Louisiana. Tropical storm Gordon began in West Africa, and dissipated as it crossed the Atlantic. All in total, 6 bad hurricanes, and one nice one (Gordon). And then came Helene, with now, 240 fatalities attributed to the hurricane.

Following Helene, there were four “nice” hurricanes, which originated offshore West Africa in the area of Cabo Verde Islands and never made it across the Atlantic. And then came Milton, which will be super bad by any measure.

There is no such thing as a “nice” hurricane that makes landfall anywhere in the world. Hurricanes can originate offshore West Africa, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It seems that the ones originating in West Africa, have a better chance of dissipating as they cross in the Atlantic ocean.

But bad and super bad hurricanes can also emerge in West Africa, and later intensify in the warm waters of the Bahamas, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Ian (2022) and Harvey (2017) emerged from West Africa and intensified once they entered warmer waters. Hurricane Andrew (1992) was similar.

The Bottom Line

The hurricane experts have correctly predicted that climate change causes extreme weather events. The Gulf of Mexico is now a giant incubator of hurricanes. The extreme weather events are being felt worldwide and it won’t stop until carbon emissions start to go down. Super bad hurricanes, floods and wildfires are the new normal. We seem to be setting new records every year.

We have an election coming up, and I have already suggested which candidate may actually get China and India (along with many other nations) to the table to curb their carbon emissions. We can’t just be pointing fingers at others. If we don’t take action to curb our carbon emissions, we lose our place at the negotiating table. The problem is now on our doorstep. We, the electorate, have a choice to make.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Gov DeSantis Hurricane Updates (Excellent summary of activities of many state agencies)

FEMA Administrator to Travel to Florida to Direct FEMA Response and Federal Staging Efforts, Meet with State and Local Officials Ahead of Milton Landfall

Recent partisan attacks of inaction are baseless. I like what the Governor said yesterday that FEMA is giving them (Florida Emergency Management) everything they are asking for and this is the reason why he doesn’t need to be on the phone with Biden. Plus, he added “if they don’t he will.” I think that’s fair enough.

Trump, Carbon Emissions and Climate Change

by Dave

It is estimated that a total of 35 billion tons per year of carbon dioxide are emitted due to fossil fuel and industry consumption. It is a global problem and must be solved through global cooperation. China and India have steadily increased their emissions since 2000, while the US has decreased its emissions.

See link: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

Donald Trump called climate change a hoax and minimized its impact. When asked about climate change during the debate, he really avoided the topic and bragged how we have the cleanest air and water in the world. It felt like it was almost unpatriotic to talk about the real driver of climate change and extreme weather events, and that is CO2 emissions.

As California battled the deadliest wildfire in its history in 2018, Donald J. Trump, then the president, initially opposed unlocking federal funding for the state, according to two former Trump administration officials. (Oct 4, NY Times)

See link: Aides Say Trump Resisted Sending Federal Funds After California Wildfires

Then there is Trump’s false claim that FEMA is partisan in providing disaster relief. “Out of more than 20 Florida counties that the federal government designated as eligible for individual and public assistance through Thursday, Mr. Trump lost just three in the 2020 election.” So, in Florida, relief goes to mostly Republican leaning states, and there is no evidence of favoritism.

Link: Trump slams US response to Helene. His own disaster-response record is marked by politics

Link: White House calls Trump’s claim FEMA disaster relief money spent on migrants ‘absolutely false’

Link: FEMA rumor response (Note: Trump promoted some of these rumors, others came from social media sources who seem to have unlimited imagination and find sites willing to post almost anything)

We can do better, but not under Trump. George W. Bush understood the necessity of making the transition to clean energy, and moderate Republicans can work with Democrats in taking practical steps to reduce non-renewable fossil fuels.

“Trump has also signaled that he would drain funding from climate-focused agencies if he’s elected. In discussing budget cuts, he told Fox News, “One of the things that’s so bad for us is environmental agencies. They make it impossible to do anything.”

As president, Trump proposed a 26% budget cut to the EPA in 2020 and a 31% cut in 2019, both of which were ultimately rejected by the Democrat-led House Appropriations Committee.”

With wildfire and hurricane aid in the billions of dollars, we are dealing with the impact of climate change. We need to continue to fund real efforts to lower our consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels.

If elected, Trump will try to repeal sections in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to provide practical incentives to buyers of electric vehicles and other measures to curb our carbon emissions. It is in line with the Heritage Foundation, Project 2025 objectives. He will take a giant step back in time.

Kamala Harris has talked about the threat of climate change and the damage to communities and families from more severe weather — floods, hurricanes and wildfires — “has been devastating.” “I have always believed, and I have worked on it, that the climate crisis is real,” she told CNN in an interview.

CBS News: Do Trump and Harris have climate change plans? See where both candidates stand

Why is it so important that we continue to be the leaders in the move to transition to clean energy?

Declaring climate change is real and is hurting our country is the first step. The Paris Agreement sets a solid foundation so countries can set goals on plans to transition to clean energy. We need to work with India and China, which are the two largest emitters of CO2 . We need to work with Brazil and other countries, as they combat the destruction of rainforests, which absorb CO2.

We need plans not political rhetoric and dishonest tweets. We need global carbon emissions to go down.

On November 4, 2017, the Paris Climate Agreement became effective. It was a great moment, but if we elect Trump, we lose our seat at the negotiating table in transitioning to cleaner renewable fuels.

Elect Kamala Harris, because we can’t afford to go back.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Demonizing Immigrants

by Dave

Trump is peddling a huge lie, that Kamala Harris was the border czar and allowed everyone to cross the southern border, carrying with them drugs and guns. Seriously! And you have heard the rest. These were people released from mental institutions, or violent criminals, capable of rape and murder. In this blog, we will not touch on pet-eating Haitians.

I am preparing a second blog, just on immigration. It has been in preparation for over a week.

To begin with Kamala Harris was never the border czar. Her mission under Biden was to discuss with Central American countries on how best to keep their citizens from coming to the US illegally. The responsibility for border security was the Department of Homeland Security.

The October 2 Vice Presidential debate was similar to the Trump-Harris debate on immigration. At every turn, JD Vance was blaming immigrants for every problem in the United States, including the high cost of housing and crowding in our schools. So, if we just round up and get rid of immigrants, all our problems suddenly disappear.

JD Vance stated that there was a Federal Reserve report, showing that immigrants were driving up the cost of housing and rents.

“After the debate, Vance’s X account shared a link to remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who said that “the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents, as additional housing supply may take time to materialize” — though in the same speech, she said immigrants had also helped ease labor shortages.”

Sure. Miami grew by a huge influx of Cuban immigrants. And it helped our prosperity. Bowman was addressing immigrants in general, not illegal immigrants.

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/jd-vance-said-immigration-driving-housing-crisis-numbers-say-rcna173595

Many Haitians are living in Springfield, Ohio. They qualified for Temporary Protected Status, because of the current turmoil in Haiti. In their country of Haiti, gangs control much of the country. It is in a state of civil war. Should the country stabilize, they can lose their protected status from deportation.

Communities like Springfield, OH have not seen a significant increase in either communicable diseases, AIDS or violent crime. But on social media, Vance has claimed there has been a “massive rise” in communicable diseases. At times, he’s specifically singled out increases in HIV and tuberculosis. The county records show that vaccine-preventable diseases, infectious disease cases (without COVID) and sexually transmitted infections in 2023 were all lower than what they were during the Trump administration.

Tuberculosis has not been eliminated in the US. For a population of 138,000, Clark County total infection diseases decreased slightly from 2022 to 2023. Se link:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-jd-vances-claims-haitian-migrants-springfield/story?id=113844705

Excellent research work by the CDC will hopefully find a vaccine and affordable treatments for tuberculosis. Just keep Robert Kennedy, Jr. away from the CDC and FDA, his two nemesis.

Now, the US has a real problem with the smuggling of fentanyl into the US. Approximately 90% comes through Mexico, through legal ports of entry. Building a wall, to completely seal off the US, will not stop this trafficking. The smugglers are people who can pass easily through the US-Mexican checkpoints. The article below is excellent as to the participation of ordinary American citizens in the border smuggling.

Link: https://www.npr.org/2023/08/09/1191638114/fentanyl-smuggling-migrants-mexico-border-drugs

The US Drug Enforcement Agency has been able to catch both the drug smugglers and their network of drug distributors/sellers.

Oct 3, Fourteen indicted in multi-state drug trafficking conspiracy linked to deadly fentanyl distributed to members of the Lummi Nation

The Lummi Nation is the name of an Indian reservation.

Oct 2, 68 Defendants Charged in Indictment of Dozens of Members and Associates of San Fernando Valley White Supremacist Gang

This was a major bust. Kudos to the DEA and the Department of Justice.

The 2024 immigration bill would have funded better detection of fentanyl in suspected vehicles at legal ports of entry. Donald Trump was instrumental in killing this bill.

Final comments

I do not support illegal immigration. Neither does Kamala Harris. She wants more money to control the border and expediate amnesty petitions, many of which will be rejected. She will push through and sign the 2024 immigration bill as president.

Trump likes to demonize immigrants, including the Haitians living legally in Springfield, Ohio. They are his scapegoats for real problems. They are not rapist and murderers. They are here legally. His attack on immigrants as spreading diseases is baseless, and only fuels racial and ethnic hatred. We don’t need this.

We don’t need Robert Kennedy, Jr. who is relishes the spotlight to expound conspiracy theories, and is now part of Trump’s supporters.

I am a son of an immigrant. I am married to an immigrant. I am very tired of all the attacks on our immigrant population.

Vote for Kamala Harris.

Stay tuned,

Dave

US Secret Service

by Dave

Ronald Rowe, the new acting director of the US Secret Service, gave a press conference yesterday. I was impressed, because he came straight to the point- the Secret Service failed to protect former President Trump due to a series of errors that were avoidable. He stated: “While some members of the advance team were very diligent, there was complacency on the part of others that led to a breach of security protocols.”

According to the CBS report, “Rowe said that one minute before, the Secret Service’s security room called a countersniper response agent to report an individual on the roof of the building where Crooks was stationed, called the AGR building. That “vital piece of information was not relayed over the Secret Service radio network,” the acting director said.

I really liked his honesty and directness. He used the word “failure” in describing the multiple communications issues with various law enforcement agents at the site and a “lack of due diligence” by the Secret Service. The “one minute” delay affects outcomes between life and death.

Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/secret-service-trump-assassination-attempt-july-13/

He agreed that the level of protection given to President Biden must be extended to all presidential candidates. The House has passed legislation to this effect.

Selecting our next president is serious business. Candidates disagree on many issues, including the trade tariffs, immigration and the war in Ukraine. How we handle global warming and abortion rights are on the table. I have already expressed who should win this election, based both on policy and character.

What is important is that we do it peacefully. We settle our differences at the ballot box on November 5.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Debate aftermath

by Dave

Trump has lashed out at ABC and in particular the times they corrected him, for lies that went to the level of “pants on fire.” A lot of lies were told, and the moderators had to be very cautious in the few times they corrected Trump. The legal termination of live babies was obviously one lie that just went over the top and I was very glad the moderator caught it.

Trump said he will sue ABC. This is just another anger tantrum from Trump. The lawsuit will ultimately be dismissed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Debate on September 10, between Harris and Trump

by Dave

The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 10. It is a very close race. Seven states are toss-ups as follows: WI, MI, PA, NC.GA, NV and AZ.

The debate prepping is beginning. They are preparing zingers.

The one I particularly like: Kamala Harris has a resume, Donald Trump has a rap sheet. (Rep Crockett, DNC Convention)

Hard adjectives: Trump’s favorite words are disgraceful, disastrous, despicable. Add “truly” or a sentence beginning with “I could believe how … ” Also Incompetence and low IQ. I don’t think he will go for crazy Kamala, but will refer to her as an ultra-left radical.

The Big They Conspiracy Argument: “Lock Them Up” (JD Vance)

(JD Vance) He [Trump] traded everything he had for unjust persecution, for slander and scorn from the fake news, all for this country, for you and me. They couldn’t beat him politically, so they tried to bankrupt him. They failed at that, so they tried to impeach him. They failed at that, so they tried to put him in prison. They even tried to kill him

Will Trump go this far as to blame the assassination attempt on the government? I think he will suggest that for reasons unknown, the normal security procedures on that day were absent, putting his life endanger. The conspiracy folks can take it from there.

Trump is generally favored over Harris on doing a good job with the economy and immigration. So, I expect, as usual, the problem will be greatly exaggerated, the past efforts dismissed so only Trump can solve it. That’s par for the course.

(JD Vance) You cannot let in 20 million illegal aliens to compete with Americans for scarce housing and then raise interest rates, which is exactly what Kamala Harris has done. As America’s border czar, Kamala Harris unleashed the worst border crisis in American history.

Harris was never the “border czar” and the 20 million immigrants number is highly exaggerated, as it includes people caught and sent back, and those from Afghanistan and Ukraine who applied for asylum.

Whatever the subject, particularly with respect for law and order, drug epidemic and the economy, it will come back to a flood of immigrants ruining our country. Trump and Vance will be playing the race card against Harris. At rallies, he calls her crazy Kamala, ultra left wing socialist. Here is a bit of Trump’s rants:

The suburbs will be overrun with violent crime and savage foreign gangs. That’s what they’re doing. They’re sending all their gangs into the United States, right?

I believe he will proclaim his innocence in the legal cases, and just something that the ultra-liberals in New York did to him in an act of desperation. It was truly despicable. Another words, play the victim of the legal system. With criminal convictions in New York City and indictments in Washington D.C. (January 6 election interference case), Florida (classified documents, case dismissed but this decision is under appeal), Georgia (Conspiracy election obstruction), this claim that Trump is a victim of “radical Democrats” gets old.

Who is best for the economy?

I find Goldman Sach’s analysis very compelling, which says Harris has the best plan for the economy.

https://www.editorji.com/business-news/kamala-harris-vs-donald-trump-who-will-be-better-for-the-us-economy-goldman-sachs-take-1725540999347

It’s all pretty nuanced, not really easy for the “zinger fest” tomorrow. Deficit hawks have a difficult time choosing between Trump and Harris. The legislature (particularly the House) is supposed to control spending, but Trump found ways to borrow funds from military budget to add more miles to his wall, which was more repair/enhancements than new construction. Trump’s tax cuts added to the deficit. Cutting government income and adding to its expense, results in more debt.

Project 2025

Harris will try to link the Trump campaign to the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, because many of the contributors, including JD Vance, work for his campaign. However, Trump has not endorsed the project’s long set of recommendations. So, she might say that Trump will likely raise taxes on the poorest individuals, while cutting them on the top wage earners, as proposed in Project 2025.

Trump will simply reply that Project 2025 is not his plan. Obviously, once elected, things are different.

I like the following from Pete Buttigieg, on debate prep.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/08/politics/video/pete-buttigieg-harris-trump-debate-sotu-digvid

Sometimes the Trump zingers can be overwhelming.

The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 10.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Big Lies from Trump/Vance on Immigration

by Dave

It is anticipated that when immigration issue comes up in the debates, Donald Trump will come fully prepared with lies. He will offer them up shotgun style, which is difficult to unpack quickly.

Lie in a TV ad: “Attention seniors: Kamala Harris has promised amnesty for the 10 million illegals she allowed in as border czar, making them eligible for Social Security. Studies warn this will lead to cuts in your Social Security benefits.”

To support this claim, they offer a direct quote, which gives the impression they are talking about her proposal.

FALSE (CNN fact check) : Kamala Harris was never a “border czar.” She was never given the responsibility to secure our southern border. This responsibility went to the Secretary of Homeland Security. She was given the diplomatic responsibility of working with three Central America countries to improve their policies, so many of their citizens would not attempt to enter the US.

The 10 million illegals “she let in” is false, as explained by CNN. We have amnesty programs available to refugees from Afghanistan and Ukraine.

Harris has not made any promise to grant legal status to all of the migrants who have crossed the border during her vice presidency.

CNN: Fact check: New Trump ad uses edited quote to attack nonexistent Harris immigration proposal

More immigration lies: This non-existent link between Social Security and illegal immigration will undoubtedly be offered up as it is used often in Trump’s rallies. Trump’s shorter version is: “Your Social Security will be destroyed by the people coming in. There’s too many of them. It’s not sustainable.”

FALSE (Politifact): https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/mar/20/donald-trump/donald-trumps-false-claim-that-immigration-hurts-s/

FALSE: Joe Biden “is letting millions of people from jails, from prisons, from insane asylums, from mental institutions, drug dealers pour in.”

Trump will re-tool this one for the debate, as perhaps the Biden-Harris administration, or just “Under Kamala’s time in office, she has let in …”

Lie from J.D. Vance: “Kamala Harris wants to give $25,000 to illegal aliens to buy American homes.”

FALSE. The idea of a federal program to give assistance to first time home buyers, who are working and paying rent for the last 2 years, has been proposed. Specifics of this idea have not been given, however illegal aliens with invalid Social Security numbers can be easily screened out of the program, through a computer check. This is routinely done with employers.

See: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/aug/22/jd-vance/jd-vances-false-claim-that-harris-wants-to-give-im/

Politifact list of Lies on Immigration

If I total up the lies on immigration (Mostly false, false and pants on fire), there are nearly 900 false statements. Trump likes to blur facts at times, saying “the government reports says 10 million illegals, could be much more than this … ” to exaggerate the immigration crisis.

I believe Trump will craft a zinger at the debate, which will identify Harris as the border czar, then add to this the 10 million aliens she left in, and connect this up to as many benefits as possible (social security, health care, housing assistance) and illegally voting in the US election. And he will describe them as rapists, drug dealers and mental patients. It will be a zinger filled with lies.

Along the way, he’ll mention that illegal immigrants can get driver licenses in Tim Walz’s state of Minnesota. I support this, as they need the driver’s license to get insurance. Uninsured motorists are a huge problem where I live (Florida).

Stay tuned,

Dave

RFK, Jr. – Can you do the hustle?

by Dave

Some things you just can’t make up! I wrote about RFJ, Jr. in 2023:

Robert Kennedy, Jr.

Everything I said then, is even more true. He is intelligent and intense, but somehow his brain got locked into giant conspiracy theories, mixed in with an attack on all vaccines. But, he fell into the deep sink hole of connecting dots that really don’t exist.

He should be with other climate activists, promoting a more green planet and working for our transition to renewable fuels. You won’t see RFK, Jr. at any Earth Day celebrations.

https://www.rescue.org/uk/article/12-climate-activists-inspiring-us-fight-climate-change

He’s busy podcasting deep state conspiracies. Here is an excerpt from his 2020 book. “The deep state is real… The real power behind the curtain is a conglomeration of corporations, coal, oil, chemical, steel, and pharmaceutical – recently joined by telecom, Big Tech/ Big Data.”

Wow. The “Big Everything Conspiracy.” Seem to work for Trump, who wants everyone to believe that the Biden administration can manipulate the FBI and Justice Department, and our entire legal system, including municipal and State district attorneys grand juries and trial juries, to indict him on election interference, illegal possession of classified documents, hush money payments and defamation.

RFK, Jr. can talk all he wants about how government caters to the corporate elites as long as it is confined to the Democrats. He can do the Steve Bannon hustle all he wants. Just keep repeating “Biden-Harris” as the culprits. Never the Republicans.
_____

Of course, Trump and the Republican Party is and has been in his prior term very supportive of the coal and oil industry. Trump’s cabinet was a gift to the fossil fuels industry. And of course, the cabinet couldn’t care less about carbon emissions, and tried to downplay the effects, like increased forest fires in California.

Trump’s first Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, had been the CEO of Exxon-Mobil for 10 years. Trump’s first Secretary of Energy was Rick Perry, who had been Governor of Texas for 15 years, who supported the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Accords.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry (per the NY Times)

Energy secretary, Mr. Perry oversaw a sharp increase in the production of fossil fuels, particularly liquefied natural gas, and promoted it with a patriotic fervor — even dubbing the fossil fuel “freedom gas” and likening its export to Europe to the United States efforts to liberate the continent during World War II.

“The United States is again delivering a form of freedom to the European continent,” Mr. Perry told reporters in Brussels in May, according to Euractiv.com. “And rather than in the form of young American soldiers,” Mr. Perry said, “it’s in the form of liquefied natural gas.”

Rick Perry became entangled in the Ukraine scandal, and many feel this was the reason for his early departure from the Trump administration.

Ryan Zinke, Trump’s Secretary of Interior, is usually a champion of protected our national parks. Zinke went just opposite way, and wanted to shrink the size of some of the mid-western parks. Per Wikipedia,

In August 2018, Zinke said that “environmental terrorist groups” were to blame for the wildfires in California, and that they had “nothing to do with climate change”. Fire scientists and forestry experts rejected that claim, attributing the increasingly destructive wildfires to heat and drought caused by climate change.[134] Later that month, Zinke walked back some of his earlier remarks, acknowledging that climate change played a part in the fires.[135] He also said that preventing removal of dead trees has increased the amount of flammable material and hurt timber salvaging.[136]

Worse of all, came from the Environmental Protection Agency, under the leadership (attack dog) of Scott Pruitt, who was able to rolled back as many of the environmental programs as possible, including regulations designed to keep pesticides out of our drinking waters, in the name of cutting bureaucratic red tape and saving taxpayer money. The Biden administration restored many of these programs.

See NY Times article: The Trump Administration Rolled Back More Than 100 Environmental Rules. Here’s the Full List.

_____

RFK Jr. had his chance to work with climate change activists years ago. He latched onto the anti-vaxxers and their misinformation campaign, through the Children’s Health Defense organization.

Wikipedia states: Children’s Health Defense (CHD) is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine disinformation, and which has been called one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines.

Children’s Health Defense

CHD is on track to sue more media organizations than Trump including Facebook, BBC, AP and Reuters for censorship of their views. Like Trump’s lawsuits, when they lose the case, they appeal the decision.

It is all part of the political hustle. I really feel badly for parents who bought into all RFK Jr. rhetoric and have not vaccinated their children. Right now, the parents in the embattled Gaza strip are begging for polio vaccines for their children. The polio virus is a monster, but the vaccine works.

Part of Harris’ campaign is “We are not going back!” She’s right.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Harris’ subtle impact- Election is Closer than Ever

by Dave


The election occurs on November 5, and I can say with 100% certainty, either Trump or Harris will be our next president. It will be a nail biter to see who receives more than 270 electoral votes (EV’s) to win the election. Please disregard anyone who says it will be a landslide victory for either candidate!

I base my conclusions on the latest consensus map from the website, 270towin.com. Toss up states decide elections. Right now, there are seven toss ups totaling 93 EV’s. Each candidate must win a few of them to get over 270 EV’s.

Harris’ entry into the race is just now showing up on these maps. The July consensus map showed Trump had an edge, with North Carolina leaning Republican. Now, it is one of seven toss up states. Earlier maps with Biden had Arizona and Georgia leaning Republicans, now both are in the toss up category. These 3 states total 43 electoral votes. (NC = 16, GA = 16. AZ = 11).

Trump has also gained, as earlier maps had Michigan, (EV = 15) as a lean Democrat, and now it is definitely in the toss up camp. Some of these earlier maps with a Trump-Biden race had just 3 toss-up states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada.

My takeaway is that we have a more uncertain race. The polling in these seven states is just too close to call. Forecasters typically look at other data, like the mid-term elections, and demographics for some guidance.

Forecasters suggested before the Democratic convention, that Harris might receive a boost in the polls, but it would take time to complete polling surveys. I think the boost is there, but time will tell if it is just a “sugar high” or Kamala Karma playing out. I’ll leave that one to the commentators.

One election pundit had it right. “Election forecasting is an open invitation to be wrong, yet they continue to do it.” The consensus answer to the obvious question, “Who will win?” is a resounding “I don’t know.” The predictability of the 2024 election started out bad, and it has gotten worse.

Stay tuned,

Dave

John Kelly and Stefanie Grisham tell of the uncaring personality of Trump

by Dave

Trump loves Trump more than anything else. Those who worked in the White House have witnessed this narcissistic personality up close.

General John Kelly served as Donald Trump’s White House Chief of Staff from 2017 to 2019. Prior to this position, he was the Secretary of Homeland Security. He was easily confirmed, with a vote of 88-11, showing bipartisan support for Kelly. At the time, he was a retired US Marine Corp General, with an outstanding record. A short bio is given in the following Wikipedia link: John F. Kelly . In 2020, Kelly was quoted in an Atlantic article as follows:

“A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them,'” Kelly said of Trump. “A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family — for all Gold Star families — on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.”

See link: NBC News, Oct 2023, John Kelly confirms Trump privately disparaged U.S. service members and veterans

During the 2024 Biden-Trump debate, Trump denied making these statements.

Yesterday, another close ally of Trump, Stephanie Grisham, former White House Press Secretary, addressed the Democratic National Convention in support of candidate Kamala Harris. She was in many ways, Trump’s “defender/explainer” typically on Fox News and the conservative online website, Washington Examiner. See her bio from Wikipedia.

Her short presentation at the DNC last night, was from someone who had been in the room when the cameras were not rolling.

Stephanie Grisham, former WH Press Secretary

Selected quotes: “Behind closed doors, Trump mocks his supporters. He calls them basement dwellers.” Obviously, he knew he appealed to naïve or poorly informed voters, who would accept his lies.

“On a hospital visit when people were dying in the ICU, he was mad the cameras were not watching him.”

“He has no empathy, no morals and no fidelity to the truth.”

“Kamala Harris … has my vote.”

Just days prior to Grisham’s few minutes at the podium, Trump really did show his lack of empathy in his comments on the Medal of Honor:

Trump said the civilian award [Medal of Freedom] is “actually much better because everyone [who] gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets, or they’re dead.” Speaking about Miriam Adelson, Trump said: “She gets it, and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman, and they’re rated equal, but she got the Presidential Medal of Freedom.”

Mariam Adelson received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2018. She and her husband were the largest donors of Trump throughout his presidency; they provided the largest donation to his 2016 campaign, his presidential inauguration, his defense fund against the Mueller investigation into Russian interference and the 2020 campaign.

Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), the largest veterans advocacy group in the U.S., criticized the statement on Friday. VFW National Commander Al Lipphardt said: “These asinine comments not only diminish the significance of our nation’s highest award for valor, but also crassly characterized the sacrifices of those who have risked their lives above and beyond the call of duty.”

So, you don’t have to accept John Kelly or Stephie Grisham statements. Trump has already confirmed his lack of empathy. His dishonesty is firmly established as fact checkers are tallying up his lies per minute everytime he speaks at a rally.

Representative Crockett added a bit of levity to the ceremonies, in her comparison of Harris’ and Trump’s resumes, as if the electorate had to decide which one to hire.

Representative Crockett

“Kamala Harris has a resume, Donald Trump has a rap sheet.”

And in 2024, MAGA means “Make attorneys get attorneys” with a long list of Trump’s legal advisors are being disbarred or have been indicted. Steve Bannon (not an attorney) goes on trial in September. And Donald Trump will be sentenced in September after the jury found him guilty in the hush money case. His sentence will likely be suspended pending an appeal.

Trump is not fit to be the next President of the United States. Kamala Harris is.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump rally, North Carolina, August 14

by Dave

I happened upon Fox News, which announced that Trump was having a rally, yesterday, and the announcer was in North Carolina to follow Trump’s rally. She said his speech would be helped by a “terrifying” CPI report that had just been issued. It was weird, because the stock market was up that day.

They told me to talk about this. (Yes my handlers)

Trump went on stage, with his usually claims of how terrible the economy and only he could fix it. But, it was pretty weird intro:

“They say it’s the most important subject. I’m not sure it is, but they say it is the most important.”

So, he’s basically telling his audience the substance of his talk they can take it or leave it. Just go with the big theme, chant USA at every pause and everything will be ok.

Inflation

The “terrifying” CPI report on inflation was in fact, pretty good with a drop of 0.1% to 2.9%, which many analysts were suggesting that the Fed would cut rates, very slightly in September. Trump focused on the motor vehicle insurance index, which has increased by 19% over the last year.

Wall Street was not terrified. Actually they were pretty happy. The Dow Jones advanced 245 points or 0.61%, and it may be another good day today (Aug 15) based on the futures market. Are they missing something, Donald?

I haven’t really parsed through his speech. In an earlier Trump-Musk interview, Trump said, “I think we have the worst inflation we’ve had in 100 years. They say it’s 48 years, I don’t believe it,” he told Musk. Certainly not today, but in June 2022, inflation hit 9.1%. it was the highest since 1980. The real story is how fast inflation has dropped since then, as the current CPI is 2.9%. The Fed basically withdrew the stimulus required during the Covid-19 years and it worked.

This is typical politics. You hammer at your opponent when things are going bad, and zero credit, when things are improving.

Link: Fact check: Trump made at least 20 false claims in his conversation with Elon Musk

This stuff on inflation is pure Trumpism- if I can tell a small lie, how about an even bigger one. You will hear both Trump and J.D. Vance use the word “fake” a lot, when they are making up things!

We’re being ripped off big time and I am your savior

“Former president Donald Trump on Wednesday appeared to open the door to significantly expanding his plans to impose sweeping new tariffs if he returns to office, suggesting an escalation in proposals that many experts already see as likely to cause a global trade war.” Washington Post, Aug 15. This is an excerpt from a full story.

“We’re going to have 10 to 20 percent tariffs on foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years,” Trump said Wednesday. “We’re going to charge them 10 to 20 percent to come in and take advantage of our country.”

Nobody likes to be ripped off, so it is a great one liner. Unfortunately, when we increase tariffs on imports, foreign governments retaliate with equal hikes on the purchase of US goods. The real net result is that tariffs are passed on to consumer, so everyone is paying more in the US and abroad. This depresses economic activity worldwide, and inflation increases.

A lot of what he said, was actually pretty scary and would undermine the recent efforts to reduce inflation. Hopefully, in this case, he doesn’t actually follow through with what he’s proposing.

What doesn’t work – cutting taxes again for wealthy Americans

Deficits occur when the outflow exceeds inflows. Republicans used to remind us of this and running a high deficit will increase interest rates (I am a particular fan of Paul Ryan who really understood this).

“Trump also renewed his call to eliminate taxes seniors pay on their Social Security benefits. He didn’t explain how the plan would work, but critics say it would cost more than a trillion dollars and exhaust federal programs faster.”

See link: Trump’s Social Security tax break could make 2 fragile safety nets even weaker

Hopefully, this will not be enacted. Those retirees whose Social Security benefits are very low, pay little or not taxes. So this benefits the rich at the expense of weakening the safety nets

Healthcare Reform

Obamacare was passed in January 2014, and ever since, Republicans have vowed to repeal it, and replace it with a better program. They almost succeeded in eliminating it. The Supreme Court ruled the law was constitutional. This would have been a massive step backwards for people who needed medical insurance.

So, Trump is finally backing off on this issue. His comments: “We’ll keep it. It stinks. It’s not good. If we can do something better, we’re going to do something with it,” he said at his rally in Asheville, North Carolina.

Illegal Immigration – and old lies

Always a hot topic. Trump always claim that during his time, he got 400 miles of wall built. Actually, only 47 miles of new security fencing was built. Another 33 miles of secondary security fencing was constructed. The vast majority of the 452 miles is repairing or replacing existing structures at the border that had been built by previous US administrations. We share a 2,000 mile border with Mexico.

Trump also attacked Harris as the “border czar.” This is a lie. The responsibility for border security was always with the Department of Homeland Security. Harris was asked to negotiate with Central American leaders on ways to stem the huge surge of migrants from economically depressed areas in their countries. This is an incredibly important to reducing illegal immigration.

Name Calling- old style Trump

We have heard it before with “Sleepy Joe” and “Crooked Joe.” But, neither of these labels will work with Kamala Harris. Nothing partisan, as his nicknames for Republicans are equally abusive, as there is “Lying Ted” for Ted Cruz, “Meatball Ron” for Ron DeSantis (an ethnic slur on his mother’s Italian heritage), “birdbrain” for Nikki Haley and “Mr. Magoo” for former AG Jeff Sessions. See list at the end.

“You know why she hasn’t done an interview? She’s not smart. She’s not intelligent. And we’ve gone through enough of that with this guy, Crooked Joe,” Trump said, using the nickname he often uses for Biden.

Ok, she’s not smart and also she’s not intelligent. Well, it’s a lot better than Mr. Magoo, Meatball Ron, Birdbrain or Lying Ted.

List of Trump’s nicknames: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nicknames_used_by_Donald_Trump

I am still totally amazed at how many people have internet access and will not fact check statements made by Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

What happened to the other 3 criminal cases against Trump?

by Dave

The verdict on Trump’s hush money trial should be known soon. So what comes next?

The three other criminal cases are still very much alive. A court case can be dismissed by a judge for lack of evidence or other reasons. This has not happened.

The case which appeared to be most likely to go next, is the classified documents case. However, there are a long series of pre-trial motions including the legality of the FBI search which must be resolved first. It is obvious that Trump’s legal team wants to delay this cases as long as possible. Judge Cannon initially set a start date for the case, but then issued an order to “indefinitely delay” the case, pending resolution of the pre-trial motions.

The January 6 federal election obstruction case, also looked like a good successor to the Hush Money case, until the Supreme Court took up the Presidential Immunity and the Fischer cases. A decision in these cases is not expected until close to the end of the term of the Supreme Court in late June or early July. A Supreme Court opinion affirming that the ex-presidents have absolute immune from criminal prosecution will likely end the January 6 and exclude Trump as a defendant in the Georgia case.

The Supreme Court took up the Fischer case in September 2023, and has yet to render a verdict. Trump and many of the January 6 rioters are charged with a statute that they attempted to disrupt an official proceeding. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Fischer, this will allow many of the rioters in the January 6 violence to have their convictions overturned. It will also allow some of the charges against Trump to be dropped.

The laggard of the 3 cases is definitely the Georgia conspiracy trial. The case came to a halt after it was discovered that the District Attorney Fani Willis had an improper relation with the Nathan Wade, the lead attorney in this case. Judge McAfee decided to let Fani Willis continue to prosecute the case, but without Nathan Wade. His judgement is now being appealed. No trial date has been scheduled, and it is not likely to start before the elections.

In sum, Trump’s legal team has managed to successfully delay the start of the three criminal cases against him. Every motion to dismiss for lack of evidence or other reasons has failed. They are still very active cases.

So, what do all the court reporters and associated pundits do after the verdict is read, and explained about a hundred times on cable news? Go home? Hardly. Senator Bob Menendez and his wife are currently on trial for bribery. See link below:

Prosecutors build their case at bribery trial of Sen. Bob Menendez with emails and texts

Also, it is expected to the Supreme Court will rule late in June on both the Fischer case and Presidential Immunity. There’s nothing stopping them from ruling sooner.

Stay tuned,

Dave

How to spin the Hush Money trial

by Dave

It’s Biden Show Trial. That was the latest spin from Alina Habba, Donald Trump’s legal spokesperson, regularly appearing on Fox News stations. The last time I heard her, she was on Sean Hannity’s show, and saying Donald Trump is being hauled into court, on exactly the same charges as in his business fraud case and the defamation case against E. Jean Carroll (two trials). Of course, the charges against Trump was in civil court, and completely different. But in each case, Trump lost and has posted bond for part of the money he owes, while these cases are being appealed.

The criminal case is being prosecuted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who has avoided making any public statement or even attending the court sessions. I take this as a sign of confidence that he will win this case. The federal government nor the Department of Justice is not involved in this case.

What DA Bragg and his team are doing, is making absolutely sure, the jury can put the pieces together, with the testimony they have heard and the documents submitted into evidence. It is likely to go to the jury next Thursday. The verdict of the jury should be respected, as they listened to all testimony in court.

Sean Hannity, Fox News commentator made a strange comment, that this was Representative Adam Schiff’s show trial. That’s pretty odd- but while we are at inventing conspiracy theories, why not pull in George Soros, Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates.

I found an even more bizarre comment from Representative Maria Salazar (I’m in her district) that this trial is like something that occurs in socialist countries. Her comments:

She proceeded to emphasize in both English and later in Spanish again how Hispanics are the largest and “most important” minority in the country. “This is a political circus that is only seen in Cuba, in Venezuela and Nicaragua,” she said. “It is a shame.” She emphasized the importance of fighting at the ballot box and making sure political persecution doesn’t continue.“ That’s why I’m telling to you Hispanics, wake up! What is happening is Marxism and we came to this country to not have this,” she said.

In autocratic governments, which I include Iran, Russia, China, Cuba and Venezuela, the country’s elites are above the law. In autocracies, the police would never raid the office of Michael Cohen, so both Cohen and Trump would never be charged. They would never search Joe Biden’s home or have a Special Counsel assign to investigate him, while he was president. Rep. Maria Salazar is campaigning on pretty stale anti-communist rhetoric.

In fact, in an autocratic government, the news media can be silenced or is run by the government. In a democracy, everyone is subject to the same laws and has the right to a fair trial. So, DA Alvin Bragg is doing what prosecutors are doing everyday enforcing the law, and not engaging in political persecution. That’s how democracies work.

The political circus continues, more on social media than in the courthouse. The latest one, was that the raid at Trump’s residence in Mar-a-Lago was intended to be an assassination attempt on Trump, because part of the instructions given to FBI agents, is the right to use deadly force. It was quickly dismissed when the standard instructions are read in full, which state that FBI agents may only use deadly force to protect themselves.

Donald Trump has already protested the entire trial, as a way to prevent him from campaigning. Court trials are never convenient to defendants. He will have his supporters already, to once again, denounce the Manhattan attorney’s office, as simply an extension of the federal courts, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and of course Joe Biden. You can pretty much add to the list, Nicolas Maduro and

Usually, defendants’ attorneys claim that the prosecution case will be completely destroyed once they can present the evidence that exonerates their client. The defense did put one witness on the stand, Robert Costello, who really could not refute the charges against Trump. His testimony may have helped rather than hurt the prosecution case, as Costello, was working for Rudy Giuliani, who has his own legal problems.

Most courtroom observers believe the case against Trump is strong. The court will reconvene Tuesday for closing arguments. They can be long, as each side will be very well prepared to summarize the case, with well chosen images of the most compelling evidence. Then, the judge will instruct the jury on the law and what they must decide.

If found guilty, Trump has the right to appeal the decision. Of course he will using campaign donations. And Trump will continue to play the victim of repression or political prosecution.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine aid and tougher border security

by Dave

“We still need to secure America’s borders before sending another dime overseas,” Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah wrote in a post on X.

Linking a border security bill to Ukraine aid sounded like a good selling point.  Both were popular bills among both parties in Congress. The bill also contained billions of dollars in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Israel. The Republicans insisted on one bill with both Ukraine aid and border security provisions. 

A bipartisan committee set at work, to make this happen. It took four months of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats before the final bill was ready.

All agreed that this bill would make security at the southern border much stronger. The military aid to Ukraine is absolutely essential to defending Ukraine from its invasion from Russia. The Russians are ready for a long war, and we must be part of the support for a free and independent Ukraine. As long as they are willing to fight, and lose their own citizens to defend Ukraine, we must support them.

Senator Krysten Sinema, from Arizona, summed it so well:

Finally, it seemed we had the opportunity to solve the nightmare my state has lived for over 40 years,” she said, scolding Republicans for using the border for “campaign photo ops” but rejecting the chance to enact law. “Turns out they want all talk and no action,” she said. “It turns out border security is not a risk to our national security. It’s just a talking point for the election.”

In particular, it was Donald Trump. It was not going to look good if President Biden signed into law a bill that would toughen the border security, give aid to those suffering in Gaza and help Ukraine to defend its country.

So, to keep the issue of border security alive during the next 12 months to help Trump win, Republicans are willing to let the crisis continue. The majority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, argued that Republicans tanked the bill to meet Trump’s demands for “chaos” at the border before the election.

Do not vote for Trump. Please. The Senators were elected to do what is best for the country. The Democrats voted for tougher border security, and it is the Republicans who are simply playing political games. I exclude from this group of Republicans, just 4 great Senators, James Lankford, OK, Susan Collins, MA, Lisa Markowski, AK, and Mitt Romney, UT. 

Stay tuned,

Dave

Supreme Court to take up landmark cases

by Dave

These are cases in which whatever the outcome, millions of Americans will be impacted. And millions of Americans will believe that the judges are total idiots, and/or highly partisan. To begin with, they are neither. The buck stops at the Supreme Court. All judges who have been accepted to the Supreme Court are really brilliant.

Unlike the legislature and executive branch, the judicial branch at every level, issues opinions that are available to the public and can be critically reviewed by constitutional scholars, who really understand the issues. 

Two landmark cases are the Trump disqualification case and the Trump presidential immunity case. Neither one has been accepted by the US Supreme Court, but almost everyone believes they will be soon. Lawyers on both sides will be burning the midnight oil, to explain, in a million words or less, to explain why their side is right.  

Trump Disqualification Case

By a 4 to 3 ruling, Colorado Supreme Court ruled on December 20, 2023 that the Secretary of State may not include Donald Trump from the primary ballot. The ruling would also eliminate him from the general election ballot. The Supreme Court will have the final say in these cases. 

State judges can take several “off-ramps” to dismiss disqualification challenges. I call these the “Don’t let this case land in my courtroom defenses” or “Stop them at the courthouse doors.” The judge does not need to hold an evidentiary hearing if the plaintiffs have not demonstrated real injury. Second, judges have ruled in many states that these cases are premature, or as they say, are not ripe for review, because Donald Trump’s name is not on the general election ballot.

Colorado’s case went forward based on both state and federal laws and the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution. State law giving the Secretary of State the right to disqualify candidates in the primary election, allowed the case to proceed. The case cleared several major hurdles in the District Court, in particular, that the violence on January 6, 2021, adequately fits the definition of an insurrection and that Trump’s actions constituted “engagement.” So, none of the normal off-ramps were taken.

However, Trump was the victor in this initial court case, because the judge concluded that the 14th Amendment did not specifically state that it applied to presidential elections. The Colorado Supreme Court reversed the judgment, arguing that the Fourteenth Amendment held for all elected offices of government, which they decided included the president. 

This case must be decided by the Supreme Court. They understand what is at stake. Suppose a similar judgment occurs in Florida, Texas, or Georgia. It has the potential to allow Biden to win, because Trump is not on the ballot. And remember, if one of the four judges disqualifying Trump had dissented, the ruling would have allowed Trump to run. It was summed up by one commentator, that voters not judges decide elections. Well, we shall see.

I particularly like a recent opinion posted on CNN. It is important to note that this opinion is not the views of CNN, and the author is not a lawyer. 

CNN Link: The Fourteenth Amendment gambit is breathtakingly foolish

Jan 6 Presidential immunity case

As part of the pre-trial motions of the January 6 case, with a scheduled start date of March 4, Donald Trump claimed presidential immunity for all actions while he was president. The trial court ruled against him, so he filed an appeal. The Special Counsel, Jack Smith, asked the Appellate Court to expedite the matter and they agreed.

Since the case will inevitably end up in the Supreme Court, Smith asked the Supreme Court to review the case, prior to the Appellate Court decision. As I was completing this post, the Supreme Court, rejected Smith’s petition without comment. This allows the Appellate Court to decide first, which will inevitably delay the start of the trial.

To leapfrog ahead of the Appeals Court or maintain the normal order. That was the question until last Thursday. Trump’s legal team wrote an excellent reply to Smith’s petition. Nothing is stronger than taking someone else’s words and using them against them. Smith argued that jumping ahead of the normal order was needed because this matter was of great public importance. Trump countered that if this is so important, it justified the Appellate Court’s review first to ensure the Supreme Court had all the facts before a landmark decision. It’s the old “haste makes waste” argument. 

The elephant in the room is the elections. Trump wants to push the January 6 criminal case to after the election. The decision by the Supreme Court and Trump’s very busy court date means it might be delayed past November.  If Trump loses again in the Appellate Court, he has 45 days to file an appeal to the full Appellate Court, and if he loses again, 90 days to appeal to the Supreme Court.

The January 6 Defendants Case

On Dec 13, 2023, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the Fischer case, which if successful, will undermine the legal basis for 2 of the 4 counts against Trump in the January 6 case. The Fischer case is also referred to as the Jan 6 defendants case because it arose from a defendant found guilty of participating in the riot on January 6. 

The case is whether the law that formed the basis of guilty convictions of over 200 defendants for attempting to disrupt an official proceeding on January 6 was really applicable. It was enacted as an anti-corruption corporate statute after the Enron scandal to prevent the destruction of documents.

For a detailed examination of the applicable law 18 USC 1512, see Lawfare post: Trump Jan 6 Indictment: The Statutes.

So, the Supreme Court, through a very narrow interpretation of the applicable law, could effectively dismiss two of the charges against Trump and the conviction of over 200 defendants in the January 6 riots. The Department of Justice has been slowly working their way up to the leadership ranks of the extremist groups, and it would terrible to see the organizers of the January 6 riots go free, based on slight interpretation differences in the words, like “corruptly” or “otherwise.”

Abortion Pill Case

The Supreme Court will decide if states can limit access to the abortion pill, mifepristone. Since overturning Roe vs. Wade, the argument is availability is a state’s issue. However, the drug has been approved for general use by the FDA. This case will have the greatest impact on abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It is estimated that approximately half of all abortions in the US are medicated abortions. Plus, any ruling to limit use of a drug that has been deemed safe by the FDA, would allow states to challenge the use of any other drug on the market, making their judgment superior to the FDA.

NYT: Abortion Pill Rullings

The Supreme Court tends to leave the most controversial decisions to the end of its term, which could end in July 2024. My sense is they will act rapidly on the Colorado Disqualification Case, as it directly impacts Trump’s candidacy. A delay in the presidential immunity case would be a big gift to Trump as he would definitely get the case dismissed if he is elected president. The status quo right now on the abortion case, is the ruling on restrictions has been put on hold, so this is one that can be delayed without a major impact.

Stay tuned,

Dave