Milton will hit Tampa Bay tomorrow. This one is very bad and everyone in the mandatory evacuation areas must leave right now. Period. Your life is far more precious than your possessions.
Kudos go to Governor DeSantis, and the Florida Division of Emergency Management along with Deanne Criswell, Administrator of FEMA for doing an outstanding job in preparing for Milton. See links at end of this blog.
Milton is the 13th “named” storm. Wikipedia provides an excellent summary of all prior named tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to December 1) as tracked by NOAA. They have the satellite photos of each hurricane.
Prior to Helene (storm #8), five storms resulted in deaths during or after the storm. These storms and the number of fatalities were Alberto (1), Beryl (70), Chris (5), Debby(10) and Ernesto(3). Following Ernesto, Francine resulted in 4 injuries, and 1.5 billion dollars of damages in Louisiana. Tropical storm Gordon began in West Africa, and dissipated as it crossed the Atlantic. All in total, 6 bad hurricanes, and one nice one (Gordon). And then came Helene, with now, 240 fatalities attributed to the hurricane.
Following Helene, there were four “nice” hurricanes, which originated offshore West Africa in the area of Cabo Verde Islands and never made it across the Atlantic. And then came Milton, which will be super bad by any measure.
There is no such thing as a “nice” hurricane that makes landfall anywhere in the world. Hurricanes can originate offshore West Africa, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It seems that the ones originating in West Africa, have a better chance of dissipating as they cross in the Atlantic ocean.
But bad and super bad hurricanes can also emerge in West Africa, and later intensify in the warm waters of the Bahamas, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Ian (2022) and Harvey (2017) emerged from West Africa and intensified once they entered warmer waters. Hurricane Andrew (1992) was similar.
The Bottom Line
The hurricane experts have correctly predicted that climate change causes extreme weather events. The Gulf of Mexico is now a giant incubator of hurricanes. The extreme weather events are being felt worldwide and it won’t stop until carbon emissions start to go down. Super bad hurricanes, floods and wildfires are the new normal. We seem to be setting new records every year.
We have an election coming up, and I have already suggested which candidate may actually get China and India (along with many other nations) to the table to curb their carbon emissions. We can’t just be pointing fingers at others. If we don’t take action to curb our carbon emissions, we lose our place at the negotiating table. The problem is now on our doorstep. We, the electorate, have a choice to make.
Recent partisan attacks of inaction are baseless. I like what the Governor said yesterday that FEMA is giving them (Florida Emergency Management) everything they are asking for and this is the reason why he doesn’t need to be on the phone with Biden. Plus, he added “if they don’t he will.” I think that’s fair enough.
It’s deja vu all over again. Yogi Berra, I say this because these were election issues in the past 4 elections. It also was an attempt to steer the debate away from Harris, to criticize Biden’s decisions.
Nord Stream 2
The Harris-Trump debate consisted of some very old recycled falsehoods from Trump, more than 2 years old. Here it is:
“Why does Biden go in and kill the Keystone pipeline and approve the single biggest deal that Russia’s ever made, Nord Stream 2?” Trump said Tuesday night. Harris finally came back with the great one liner, “Well I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump.”
I call it the double whammy, because it calls for Harris to defend Biden’s supposed “approval” of Nord Stream 2. There was no approval, because it was Germany’s decision. For now, it isn’t even an issue. No gas is flowing from Russia to Germany. The pipelines were sabotaged in September 2022 and repair is unlikely because Germany will not allow the pipeline to go in service.
Nord Stream 2 is an underwater natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, which was first planned in 2015. It is 767 miles long. Because the pipeline exports Russian gas to Germany, they must approve the project. The US can make it more difficult to construct the pipeline by sanctioning the companies involved in the construction. But approval or disapproval are not options.
Biden’s approval of Nord Stream 2 is a recycled lie. Trump’s February 2022 speech at the CPAP conference is just one long series of lies, exaggerations and deceptive statements. Of course this is a conservative Republican event that is very eager to embrace his false statements because they sound good. See link at bottom.
“It’s a good thing to get along with people not a bad thing. You can be very tough and get along. You know, I’m the one that ended [Putin’s] pipeline. He said, ‘You’re killing me with the pipeline.’ Nobody else ended his pipeline. Biden came in, he approved it.”
Sorry, This is a baseless lie. It only highlights Trump’s creativity in telling lies with Vladimir Putin, down on his knees to Trump, begging him to approve the pipeline. US sanctions may have slowed construction but they did not stop it. Per Wikipedia: “In December 2020 [while Trump was still President] , the Russian pipelaying ship Akademik Cherskiy continued pipe-laying… The laying of the second line was completed in September 2021.
In May 2021, Biden allowed soften the sanctions. At the time, Germany was very upset with the US sanctions against companies involved in the construction of the pipeline as they saw it as an interference in their foreign policy. Biden attempted to re-direct the sanctions more specifically at Russia’s economy as it became clear that the Nord Stream 2 project was going to be completed no matter what the US wanted.
Biden was looking for some leverage to negotiate with Putin. The real threat was a Russian invasion of Ukraine not Russian gas flowing to Germany. Biden was attempting to solidify European unity to counter Russia’s hostile and aggressive policies. The Ukrainian invasion occurred because of Putin’s underestimation of Ukraine’s willingness to fight, and the US and European support for an independent Ukraine.
Germany will not permit the pipeline be put in service as long as Russia occupies Ukraine. Germany never granted Russia a certification of completion for the Nord Stream pipeline.
The claim by Trump during the debate that Biden terminated the Keystone XL project is correct. He did so on his first day in office, based on environmental concerns. His agenda to rejoin the International Paris Accords and gain further cooperation for reduced CO2 emission would be inconsistent with supporting import of heavy oil from Canada. Per Wikipedia: “As of 2024, oilsands account for 8% of the total of Canadian emissions. Emissions from the oilsands continue to increase, while most other sources are decreasing.
The Keystone pipeline saga is a long one. There are multiple pipeline construction phases. The one that Biden cancelled was the fourth phase called the Keystone XL pipeline. The KXL pipeline would have shorten the route to Texas refineries. Trump tried to hasten the approval permitting process, but legal challenges in Montana succeeded in November 2018, with the judge ruling that the expediated approval violated the Administrative Procedure Act, the National Environmental Policy Act, and the Endangered Species Act.
It is true that the construction of the other phases of the Keystone project were easily approved during the Obama administration. The real issue was whether it was in the US interest to import the heavy crude (the nastiest oil, see NRDC link) which would have serious environmental and ecology impact.
Did Biden’s cancellation of the pipeline hurt the oilsands projects? Not really, as production from Canada’s oilsands continued to grow. There are still the longer route to bring Canadian oil to the US. Railcars can transport the heavy oil. And this is not good for climate change efforts. See links below.
The pipeline construction is 8% complete. TransCanada Corporation (now TC Energy, TRP stock symbol) disbanded efforts to continue the construction after Biden denied the export permit. The company is still doing well with a market cap of 42 billion dollars. The CBS article suggests that Canada production growth may flatten out in 2024, with competition from other sources.
(The long and controversial history of the Keystone XL pipeline stretches back to 2008 when Bush was president)
The German Experience transitioning to Green Energy
Immediately after the debate, Germany took exception to the following:
“You believe in things like, we’re not going to frack, we’re not going to take fossil fuel, we’re not going to do things that are going make this country strong, whether you like it or not,” Trump said Tuesday night, referring to Harris. “Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants.”
Their response: “Like it or not: Germany’s energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables,” the ministry wrote. “And we are shutting down — not building — coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest.”
Harris stated that she supported fracking. The side comment on Germany was just thrown into the mix for effect. They also watch our debate.
Opening up and closing other potential areas for drilling by Biden
Energy policy will continue to be controversial and poorly understood by the electorate, regardless of who wins the 2024 election. Biden surprised climate activists when he approved the massive Willow project (massive in terms of investment required) in the petroleum reserve.
The 2021 ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) lease sale by Trump, after he lost the election in 2020, was a total disaster. The potential of ANWR is poorly defined, as no wells have been drilled inside the refuge. Chevron drilled an exploratory well just outside of the refuge in 1985. Results have never been disclosed.
Per Wikipedia:
Two small independent companies, Knik Arm Services LLC and Regenerate Alaska Inc, won one tract each. The auction generated $14.4 million, lower than the $1.8 billion estimate from the Congressional Budget Office in 2019, and the auction did not receive bids from any oil and gas companies.[53]
On June 1, 2021, Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland suspended all Trump-era oil and gas leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge pending a review of how fossil fuel drilling would impact the remote landscape.[10] Indigenous and conservation groups urged Biden to make the suspension permanent. On September 6 2023, the Biden administration cancelled the leases.
The same article notes that Goldman Sachs and other investment banks stated they would not finance investments in ANWR. On September 6, 2023, the Biden administration cancelled the leases.
I doubt that the lease holders really lost because without a major oil company taking over the lease, there would be no exploratory drilling.
Summary
I have corrected the misrepresentations by Trump at the debate concerning the two pipelines, neither of which are operational. So, this is a matter of old and bitter political fights. Canada will produce their heavy oil to the chagrin of climate activists.
The supply of oil is likely to increase from new discoveries offshore Guyana, and from developments in Brazil, US (offshore developments plus fracking) and Canada. Gas prices could definitely go down, as supplies increase.
Our energy policy is too short term focused. Going forward in the long run, will mean transitioning from our dependence on fossil fuels, to renewable fuels, which includes solar and wind energy. We can’t keep building roads, and adding gasoline burning cars. Collaborating with other countries, like China and India, I hope, can lead to cutting global carbon emissions. Global problems require global solutions.
I don’t think there is any hope of a Trump administration addressing these future challenges. The hubris that comes from the MAGA folks, is competitive, and ignores the climate impact.
I am much more hopeful that a Kamala Harris would make real progress in green energy and more efficient use of our resources, for the long term future.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the deliberate, contrived, and dishonest—but the myth: persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. Too often we hold fast to the clichés of our forebears. We subject all facts to a prefabricated set of interpretations. We enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. Mythology distracts us everywhere—in government as in business, in politics as in economics, in foreign affairs as in domestic affairs.” John Kennedy, Yale University commencement speech, 1962.
If it bleeds, it leads. If you want to get notice on Instagram or Facebook, just make stuff up. On Fox News, it’s usually blowing something totally out of proportion, and then blaming Biden for what some agency did or didn’t do.
Yes, there is no gas stove ban. This one began early in January 2023, and we are in September 2023. I don’t know how much longer Republicans can push this non-issue. But, honestly, there are a number of situations where electric is a better choice.
Now, a few facts. January 9, 2023, CNN news story headline, “A US federal agency is considering a ban on gas stoves.” It went on to state, “Richard Trumka Jr., a US Consumer Product Safety commissioner, set off a firestorm this week by saying in an interview with Bloomberg that gas stoves posed a “hidden hazard” and suggested the agency could ban them.” Yes, if something is really dangerous, like a toy that could injure a child, then this action is justified.
So, the Republicans went ballistic and soon it all became much more fiction than fact. “THEY are going to be sending in the FBI to seize your gas stoves, or maybe some documents like THEY did to poor Donald.”
Gas stove pollution can affect children with asthma. The pollutants given off by gas stoves can exacerbate repiratory problems, and cardiovascular illnesses.
So, I am grateful, not angry at Commissioner Richard Trumka, for raising this issue and good research. As much as I like cooking with gas, my electric range is just fine. And I’ve got an air purifier too.
Gas stoves significantly contribute to climate change. Massive heat waves occurred in the US and Europe this summer. Approximately 115 people died in the Maui fires. Wild fires are popping up all over Canada. Evacuation orders and alerts have been issued for British Columbia. Hurricane Lee is a product of warmer Atlantic Ocean waters, and I am so glad it turned. But, the people in Bermuda may not be so lucky. It is a monster.
Global warming is the inconvenient truth that was presented in the 2006 movie. So much of what was predicted in this film is a reality today 17 years later. I will post more on this later.
Bans are very limited. New York City banned gas stoves in new apartment in 2021. New York State is banning gas stoves and furnaces in new homes by 2026. They will be banned in apartments over 7 stories high by 2019. Restaurants and other businesses are exempt. Berkley, California banned gas stoves in 2019, but a recent court decision found the ban illegal.
It is unfortunate that Republicans at both the state and federal level have made such a big deal of this. What began as a health warning has suddenly become a rallying cry for Republicans. President Biden announced he has no plans to ban gas stoves.
So, all this is pure politics, all started in January when an agency director had the nerve to warn the public of health hazards associated with gas stoves.
Climate activists are right in that we have to take real action in our own country to bring down fossil fuel consumption. Global problems need global solutions, but if we don’t start in our own backyard, we’ve got no chance in convincing other countries to do the same.
Biden’s “Build back better” package is very close to passing. Senator Joe Manchin, Senator from West Virginia, has been in negotiations with Senator Chuck Schumer, to find a way to pass this bill. If it passes, it may have been stripped of very critical elements.
The bill is hated by Republicans. They will immediately point to the enormous cost of the bill. Democrats counter by saying they have closed tax loopholes in the bill so it pays for itself. At least it does as initially proposed.
Link from the White House summarizing the bill. It is a combination of many programs, including extension of child care credits, measures to combat climate change, expand health benefits, reduce prescription drugs costs and expand educational programs beyond high school. I call them the “goodies” and others would call them social benefits.
All eyes are now on Senator Kyrsten Sinema, to see if the bill passes. If Sen. Sinema goes along with the plan, the Senate would be divided 50:50, and VP Kamala Harris could vote to break the tie. The two holdouts are quite different. Senator Joe Manchin is quite vocal on what he doesn’t like in a bill, and has worked with the majority leader to find a compromise. Not so with Senator Sinema. She doesn’t talk to the press.
It appears from the trickle of news, she’s onboard with all the social benefits in the program. She is from Arizona, so unlike Joe Manchin, there is no climate change issues. (Manchin is from West Virginia, known for its coal production). It’s the self funding part of the bill. The claim of Republicans is that it would be absurd to make a massive increase in government spending at a time when the country is on the brink of recession. I admit, they have a point.
The apparent objections from Kyrsten Sinema, are the minimum tax rate of 15% for corporations and the carried forward interest provision. Many corporations have sufficient write-offs so they pay no federal tax.
So, as the Bloomberg article suggests, if the Democrats satisfy Sinema and reduce the applicability of the minimum tax rate, they lose Manchin. They also will be immediately shown as hypocrites, because they claimed the package was self funding.
The bill will repeal Trump’s personal tax cuts in 2017, the so-called “welfare for the rich,” where rich is defined as those with income over $400,000. So far, leaked reports are that Sinema objections are on the corporate tax benefits (or loopholes), which is still a big piece of the self-funding claim.
I don’t know if we have a “humpty-dumpty” moment, where through the compromises needed to get Manchin and Sinema onboard, we lose the vital elements of the package, one of which is the increase in renewable energy. Trump put us behind for four years, with climate change deniers and fossil fuel advocates. I hoped Biden could reverse this, and bring internation cooperation together again, as Obama was trying hard to do.
I guess the real solution is to elect a few more Democrat senators, so two senators can’t change the bill, so it does not provide what it should (Manchin’s cuts) or is not funded properly (Sinema’s cuts). The Republicans in the end, may celebrate, with a bill that does not deliver the goods, particularly in reduction of fossil fuel consumption and is not self funding. A win for oil companies and corporate America.
Global warming is here. California wildfires continue to grow. Yes, Washburn which threatened Yosemite is under control, but the McKinney fire, right on the California/Oregon border is only 10% contained, and has destroyed 57,000 acres. Horrible injuries and loss of lives with homes and wilderness destroyed.
We can do better than this.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Humpty dumpty reference:
Something beyond repair. from a children’s rhyme: Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall, All the king’s horses, And all the king’s men, Couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty together again.
Trump and his company will continue to file cases in court and lose every single one of them. The first loss will happen at the very end of January when the Supreme Court will reject the request by Trump to review the Jan 6 committee subpoena for documents from the National Archives and the documents will be in the hands of the committee by February.
In the most recent lawsuit against Attorney General Letica James, it will be dismissed with harsh words, such as the lawsuit is frivolous and politically motivated.
Devin Nunes is the CEO of Trump’s new social media company. Trump will fire him before the end of the year.
Many countries in Europe will have higher percentage of their population vaccinated than in the US. This is a fairly easy prediction, and it is a sad fact that many Americans have doubts about the vaccines or believe popular but untrue conspiracy theories. Eastern Europe and Russia will catch up to the US.
A new Iran nuclear deal will be agreed upon. Republicans will do everything they can to defeat it.
Climate change will be very much present, as the northwest of the US will suffer from extreme heat and our hurricanes will be wetter, creating more flooding,
I think 6 predictions are enough for now. I’ll check back at the end of 2022 and see how I did. I did not make any predictions on the mid-term elections, but it’s certainly possible for both the House and the Senate to be controlled by Republicans.
May 24, 2006 marks the release of the documentary film, Inconvenient Truth. The film documented Al Gore’s decades long campaign to increase awareness on global warming. It was appropriately titled. Climate change or global warming wasn’t the headline news at least in 2006. See link below on the film.
Al Gore is an unabashed environmental activist since he was elected to Congress at the age of 28. At age 73, Gore is still hard at work raising awareness and pro-actively supporting cooperation. Being pro-active, meaning heeding clear warning signs of impending disasters and taking appropriate actions. Some should take note of the recent Surfside condominium collapse of a good example of the cost of inaction until disaster comes.
“No challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change” is from Obama’s State of the Union address in 2015. The statement was immediately ridiculed on Fox News. CNN reported, “His statement was met with scattered, muted applause.” President Barack Obama described as the greatest threat to future generations was neither terrorism nor ISIS. It wasn’t nuclear weapons in rogue states either.
Nobody needs to convince the residents of California or Oregon that climate change effects can be life threatening as temperatures soared above 100 degrees. Bloomberg reports: “In the past week alone, 380,000 people have been evacuated due to floods in China’s Henan province, 30 villages in Uganda were affected as rivers overflowed and 25 people died in landslides after Mumbai was hit by big storms that also inundated regions surrounding the megacity. Temperatures in Turkey and North Africa approached 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit), while South Africa and Brazil froze. Siberia is battling wildfires again.”
“The global climate is out of balance” as stated in the Bloomberg link below. It will take enormous international cooperation to bring down global carbon emissions. We have finally a president who will work with world leaders on cutting emissions. But unfortunately, Congress is less committed, and they hold the purse strings.
Even worse, is the defiant President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who seems in locked in the mentality of last century, where there was zero appreciation of the impact of carbon emissions our climate, and complete deference to industrial development. See the last link of this blog, where the federal government is accelerating the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, for profit.
Yes, Gore got it right from the get go, so did Obama. Biden is on the right track. China. India and the EU will work with the international groups. Brazil? Some really get it.
I continue to add links to the impeachment inquiry page as shown on the right side of this web site. I particularly like the CNN Inquiry tracker. There are currently 30 requests for testimony or documents and 24 subpoenas. The joint committee, meeting behind closed doors, has heard from 16 witnesses, so the hearings in this phase, are far from being done. I figure with 16 down and 54 to go, this marks the 30% done level. Of course, the requests and subpoenas could outpace the testimonies, so this % done statistic could go down.
Imagine inviting 20,000 of your friends over for Thanksgiving and given only a few weeks to prepare. What Madrid did, in hosting the COP25 Meeting is pretty incredible. It will be a conference filled with intense negotiations, as reducing carbon emissions calls for sacrifice, and each country has to do their share for the greater good of the planet. Good words with no action are not helpful. Unfortunately, the US and Brazil look to be the only two countries who see this terrible crisis as an inconvenience to their nationalistic political agenda. Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, seems to believe that Brazil is somehow not connected to the rest of the planet. Yes, our house is on fire, in California and the Amazon. Trump will become a permanent resident in Palm Beach, Florida, and may begin to take a real interest in rising sea levels.
Our Secretary of Energy Rick Perry will be leaving soon, stonewalling the House for documents and testimony related to the Trump-Ukraine scandal and really embracing the “Bob Murray” energy plan to push coal and do whatever is possible to discourage renewable energy sources. Solar panels made in China got hit with 55% tariffs and inverters, I believe, are now taxed at 25%,.
Murray Coal got everything on their agenda list they sent to Mike Pence, (except his welfare plan for nuclear and coal) which included rolling back of all initiatives taken during Obama’s administration, yet the Murray Coal still went bankrupt. I hope I will never see again in my lifetime the owner of a coal company have so much sway over the Department of Energy and the EPA. Money doesn’t talk, it swears (Bob Dylan).
I just felt that the transcript of Fareed Zakaria’s My Take fit so well within the last blog on the Saudi attack. Fareed looks at all the crises: North Korea Disarmament talks, China Trade war, Israel – Palestine conflict, Afghanistan disengagement and talks with the Taliban, and concludes Trump has failed badly, because he isn’t a good negotiator.
But he held out some hope for a US-Iran deal, something which would allow the Iran nuclear deal from unraveling. Fareed’s piece was likely concluded just prior to the drone attack on Saudi Arabia. The US now threatens to bomb Iran, in part because that’s what the Saudi’s would like. Now, none of these conflicts are new, except the hostilities between the US and Iran. This occurred because Trump and the Republican party waged war against the Iranian nuclear deal. The China trade wars are new, but the problem of China’s unfair trade practice are not new.
So, bottom line, Trump hasn’t really resolved any of the international conflicts he inherited from Obama, and has added Iran nuclearization to the heap of threats. I would add climate change as sixth major threat, which Donald Trump has taken a giant step backwards by pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord. The next president will arrive in 2020 with his or her plate full.
Diplomacy is the art of the compromise. It is our strength. It is why the US pushed for international organizations, like the UN, World Trade Organization, World Health Organization, the International Atomic Energy Commission which is still doing the inspections in Iran, and many others. It is soft power, and it looks like we are losing it.
Scientists like to refer this as “climate change” but whatever it is called, it is real, it is worldwide and the consequences of ignoring it or belittling it, are very serious.
I was blown away when I saw this graph on the front page of the New York Times, on February 7, 2019. I mean the front page of the New York Times is precious territory, but the editors decided to put this graph at the top left corner, because it tells a very compelling story. It is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) showing the 2018 global temperature is right on trend beginning around 1970. Look at the last five points, 2014 to 2018, the temperatures are above all others on the chart, meaning the last 5 years were the hottest ever on our planet.
This temperature increase coincides with increases in worldwide carbon emissions. It is distinctly different from the 1880 to 1930’s, random ups and downs. Global warming is a factor in extreme weather events including the blistering cold snap in the Midwest, the extreme heat wave in Australia, hurricanes in Puerto Rico, Florida, and the gulf coast states, prolong dry conditions in California promoting forest fires and expansion of deserts causing famine in Africa.
It is real, It is bad, And we lack leadership at the highest levels of our government. Trump will pull out of Paris Accords, and did not say one word about climate change in the State of the Union address.
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. Global warming doesn’t cause hurricanes to form. Ok. It is a contributing factor in turning a tropical storm into a hurricane. I live in Miami, and I know the difference. Hurricanes can totally destroy a house and are deadly. I was in Miami when Hurricane Andrew hit in August 1992 and I saw the destruction.
I was very glad to see climate change listed along with terrorism as one of the major threats to US security as reported by National Security Director, Dan Coats in the Foreward of the 2018 assessment (see links) as follows:
Challenges from urbanization and migration will persist, while the effects of air pollution,inadequate water, and climate change on human health and livelihood will become more noticeable. Domestic policy responses to such issues will become more difficult—especially for democracies—as public become less trusting of authoritative information sources.
Environment and Climate Change: The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval—through 2018. The past 115 years have been the warmest period in the history of modern civilization … (page 16) ,
The report does not go into detailed as this is a highly condensed summary of immediate threats to the US. It is clear from the report that water and food shortages increase the risk of unrest in parts of the world. I fear these trouble spots will end up like Syria and Libya, prolong proxy wars. President Obama was ridiculed on Fox News suggesting that climate change could be a worse peril than terrorism to our country.
Our increasing environment problems becomes more noticeable – that’s right, if we take the trouble to see what’s happening. Of course, when a hurricane comes and demolishes your dream beachfront home, it is pretty difficult to ignore.
Just as I was ready to hit the publish button, I discovered another news story, in which scientists consider our warming gulf coast waters make it likely that hurricanes will intensify at a more rapid rate (see Miami Herald story). This gives everyone less time to evacuate, and is particularly bad for the less mobile (poor people, elderly, hospitalized folks) to get out of harm’s way.
To reiterate, it was great to see the New York Times break out of the publishing norms, and put the graph front and center. Of course, they followed up with pictures of melting glaciers in China, wildfires in Paradise, California, Hurricane Florence in Florida, and a dried up section of the Rhine in Germany. All of these were from 2018. And they put it all online so anyone could read their story. Great work. But, there is more needed than just public awareness.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign had a simple slogan, just like Trump’s campaign. It was “Stronger Together” and I’ve turned it to the negative, “Weaker Apart.” I am referring to actions by the Trump administration to breach or terminate any multinational agreement which it perceives is not in the best interest of the US. Trump likes to think of himself as this incredibly skilled negotiator who can be get better deals usually on a bilateral basis.
I don’t see a global approach to problems as an option, but rather as a necessity. We don’t solve nuclear proliferation, climate change or fair trade (Trump’s biggest concern) on our own. Unilateral sanctions on countries whom we have disagreements (Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, to name a few) are generally failures.
I commented before on how confused Trump’s policies were China, seeking their help in pressuring North Korea to denuclearize and simultaneously attacking them as a currency manipulator and promoting unfair trade practices. Secretary of State last visit to China, failed for exactly these reasons – see New York Times article.
Getting tough on Iran with new sanctions is also backfiring. It has created a sort of odd unity between EU leaders and Iran, that desperately wants to keep the Iran accords alive as this provides constant monitoring of Iran’s uranium enrichment sites. Meanwhile Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in an interview with CNN Fareed Zakaria, is not following Trump’s game plan of high level meetings to work out a new accord. He rightly says that the accord took years to reach, and was comprehensive covering uranium enrichment, reprocessing, monitoring and sanction relief. The International Atomic Energy Agency was given full access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and confirmed Iran has been in compliance. Zarif pointed out there is no sense in sitting down with the US to work out a new agreement, when they are presently in violation of the existing accord. Having the two leaders meet at this point, would just be a PR “photo shoot.”
Perhaps there is no area that is so clearly a global problem and costly to the US than climate change. The Paris Accords was, to most environmentalists, a weak plan as each government could set their own goals to reducing carbon emissions. But it was an incredible achievement, nevertheless to have each country acknowledge the need for positive action to reduce their carbon emissions. The proposed rollback of car mileage standards, means more gas will be consumed in each car, and more carbon emissions. Americans will foot the bill, not only paying more for gasoline but also in health related problems. This impacts around 25 million asthma suffers.
I have provided a link below on likely battle which will ensue over the EPA rules change on car emissions. US car emission standards will be lowered below California’s emission standard, setting off another court challenge. Republicans, who traditionally support the states in these issues, will suddenly now be on the side of Trump and his business friendly EPA. See links.
Global warming does not create hot weather, every day of the week. Instead, it makes extreme weather events more likely. The hurricanes may not be more frequent with global warming, but they are likely to be more laden with water, and have time to intensity. In time, storm surge will increase due to rising sea levels. The result is more flooding, the really destructive part of hurricanes in terms of human injury and death.
A comment from Christine Whitman, former EPA administrator under George W. Bush.
“There’s not an ideological push here, there’s just, ‘We’re going to do whatever industry wants, and if Obama did anything, it’s bad and we’ll undo it,’” Christine Todd Whitman, the EPA administrator under former President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2003, said in a phone interview. “I don’t think the president has thought through what used to be a basic principle of Republicans, and that’s states’ rights.”
Christine Whitman is a lifetime Republican, who recognizes the need for clean air and water is not a political matter.
The efforts of the Trump administration are not making America Great, it is giving in to polluters, and rejecting the international cooperative effort.
So. why are we weaker apart? Increase inflation due to trade wars with China, increase danger of a nuclear arms in Iran, as a result of our breaking the Accord, increase gas costs as we attempt to force Iran to the negotiating table, and sadly, more carbon emissions, which we will pay for with cars that get fewer miles to the gallon.
Not great, In the long term just dumb. Regaining our leadership role in the world might have a change in 2020, with a new leader.
Note: I believe I’ve correctly summarized their findings. The article is primarily on Atlantic hurricanes. Typhoon Mangkhut was a terrible storm, and the death count (~80) will likely increase as recovery efforts are underway. Many more people die after a typhoon or hurricane than during one.
The old slogan, “If it bleeds it leads” seems to be playing out. The second one, is “the closer to home the better.” Tragic losses due to Florence aren’t here yet, but they’re coming. But the singular focus on Florence kind of makes all the newspapers look about the same.
But, there are the few exceptions, thank God. You can find them by googling “global warming” and “hurricanes” and then check News. Worsening hurricanes is only one horrible affects of global warming. The more extreme weather events are real, with cyclones in Hawaii and the South Pacific and prolong droughts in Africa. Lives are being lost.
In the prior blog, I stated the EPA is doing nothing to curb carbon emissions. Unfortunately, this is a bit of an understatement. The Trump administration is making things worse- as they are attempting to eliminate regulations in place, under the Obama administration to reduce our carbon emission. As reported by the New York Times:
The Trump administration, taking its third major step this year to roll back federal efforts to fight climate change, is preparing to make it significantly easier for energy companies to release methane into the atmosphere.
Methane, which is among the most powerful greenhouse gases, routinely leaks from oil and gas wells, and energy companies have long said that the rules requiring them to test for emissions were costly and burdensome.
The Environmental Protection Agency, perhaps as soon as this week, plans to make public a proposal to weaken an Obama-era requirement that companies monitor and repair methane leaks, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times. In a related move, the Interior Department is also expected in coming days to release its final version of a draft rule, proposed in February, that essentially repeals a restriction on the intentional venting and “flaring,” or burning, of methane from drilling operations.
The new rules follow two regulatory rollbacks this year that, taken together, represent the foundation of the United States’ effort to rein in global warming. In July, the E.P.A. proposed weakening a rule on carbon dioxide pollution from vehicle tailpipes. And in August, the agency proposed replacing the rule on carbon dioxide pollution from coal-fired power plants with a weaker one that would allow far more global-warming emissions to flow unchecked from the nation’s smokestacks.
The New York Times article is provided in the links below. The article does not mention that methane is not only a greenhouse gas contributor, in a big way, but also acts to deplete the ozone layer, allowing for more harmful UV sun rays to pass through the upper atmosphere.. Increases in incidences in skin canker can occur.
Unlike EPA administrator Scott Pruitt, I don’t expect Andrew Wheeler to be making public appearances following hurricane Florence as he follows in Pruitt’s steps of industry friendly policies.
It is crazy to think of carbon emissions and air pollution as a state issue as some Republicans want to do. Global warming awareness needs to shift from a focus on political ideology/affiliation or economics, to real health issues.
The last article is at least, asking the right questions. More expensive homes along the shore is a contributing factor. The article concludes, as I did, that global warming doesn’t increase the number of hurricanes, but makes them more devastating in terms of rainfall. There is research showing that they are more likely to intensify when there is warming water.
The prior posts (Part 1: Trump’s Policies) showed coal production to still be in decline. Trump’s elimination of the Stream Protection Act, was easy, because it was not a law. It was unfortunate because so much time had been devoted to finding a solution to the massive dumping of debris containing toxic heavy metals into stream valleys. The eastern states of Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia and Tennessee will have to manage the ecological destruction on their own. Trump is making the Clean Power Plan to be unenforceable through cutting the funding. EPA will work to dismantle the Plan in a legal manner, under the direction of the new administrator, Andrew Wheeler. EPA studies showed the end of the program would be most detrimental to low income families who live in close proximity to the mines. Environmental groups will attempt to keep the plan alive, but this is an uphill battle.
I included in Part 1, the cornerstone of Robert Murray, Senator Jim Imhofe, and Andrew Wheeler’s policies, is that global warming is either non-existent or the effects are exaggerated. Scott Pruitt was defiant to scientists, who opined that the severity of Hurricane Maria may have been affected by warmer waters as a result of global warming. He stated it was disrespectful to the victims to politicize the damage. Trump visited Puerto Rico, and infuriated residents by downplaying the severity of the damage.
Coal as an energy source has been in decline for years due to the abundance of natural gas. Ordinarily, this should be viewed as beneficial as coal burning in power plant is the worst way to generate electricity as it causes many environmental problems beyond global warming. It is estimated by the EPA that 230 miles of streams and rivers have been eliminated by the dumping of debris as a result of mountain top blasting.
Climate Change Denial and the Paris Accords
Trump campaigned that he would pull out of the Paris Climate Accords. Legally, the US will not be out of the accord until 2020. No other country has pulled our of the agreement nor supported the US decision to withdraw. Major oil companies supported the Paris Climate Accords, likely because they could see the benefit of power plants switching to natural gas.
The NYT article, “The Year Global Warming turned Model into Menace” reported on the devastating impacts of global warming. It was predicted that more extreme weather event would result, including extreme cold and hot periods. The latest extreme events include heat related deaths in Japan, the shutdown of nuclear reactors in Europe because the river water became too warm, agricultural losses in Sweden and El Salvador and forest fires in California.
Clean Coal Technology
Release of byproducts of coal burning can be reduced, such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and mercury with appropriate technology. However, carbon dioxide is still released. The clean coal technology incorporates carbon capture and storage or carbon sequestration. See link below. This increases the cost of coal, and would only be for regulatory compliance, as with the Clean Power Plan. Unfortunately, this Plan appears to be dead under the Trump administration.
Protecting our electrical grid
For decades, coal was promoted as vital for reliable, low cost energy. To prevent uneconomical coal powered plants from being shut down, coal executives lobbied the Department of Energy to subsidize their operation. Secretary of the DOE submitted a proposal to FERC for subsidies. It was a very creative proposal, The coal and nuclear industries would be paid to keep a 90 day supply of fuel available, just in case of hurricanes or other natural disasters. In January 2018, the FERC rejected this proposal, citing a DOE report, as requested by Rick Perry:
“In fact, the Department of Energy’s own recent ‘grid reliability’ study found the current grid is highly reliable, despite an ever decreasing amount of coal-fired generation.”
Bernard McNamee has been nominated to the FERC and there is speculation that the coal bailout plan might be revived. The opponents of the bailout plan, the first time around, were a strange coalition of the lobbyist organization for oil and gas industry, namely the American Petroleum Institute, and environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club.
Conclusion:
Solar energy and wind generated electricity have increased dramatically, however they have a long ways to go to contribute significantly to our energy needs. Recent trade tariffs against China have resulted in a 30% tariff on solar panels. The solar industry in the US employs approximately 250,000 people compared to about 70,000 in the coal industry. Trade tariffs on imported steel are hurting the oil and gas industry, which is an extensive customer of steel (wells, drilling rigs, production platforms, tankers and storage).
It is indeed fortunate that coal fired plants are being replaced by plants using natural gas. The US may reduce its carbon emissions simply through market forces. Still, Trump has appointed many in government whose don’t really look at the public’s best interests. If the bailout plan is submitted again, the opponents will be citing the DOE grid study as reasons to reject it.
Trump coal bailout plan to have powerful ally if frontrunner for energy agency opening is confirmed
Bernard McNamee is among half a dozen former TPPF officials who hold positions in Trump administration.
It was reported on May 3, 2018, that ex-CEO of VW, Martin Winterkorn, was indicted by a Grand Jury in Michigan for making “false representations to regulators and the public” about the emission levels of VW vehicles. As reported by the BBC (link provided below), US Attorney General Jeff Sessions said the indictment showed that Volkswagen’s scheme to cheat its legal requirements went “all the way to the top.”
Kudos to Sessions, federal prosecutors, and the US justice system. But even if found guilty by US authorities, it’s unlikely Mr Winterkorn, who resigned soon after the scandal broke in 2015, will ever see the inside of a US courtroom, much less prison, as Germany does not extradite its citizens. according to the BBC.
It was front page news in 2015, that VW had special coding within their cars’ computer to detect when their cars were being tested by the EPA, and make the necessary changes so the cars would pass the emissions tests. The problem was the nitrous oxide levels (NOx). The problem was enormous. If they made their cars compliant for emission standards, the fuel economy would be substantially lower. In the US, it is mandatory to post the fuel mileage on the window of new cars. It is also an obvious selling point, as it suggests to an owner of an older model, that they could save on both car repairs and fuel costs by trading their old car for a new one. It is also obvious, that consumers would select VW over other car manufacturers based on better fuel economy. So, any attempt to fix emissions, would result in a fraud case, by all consumers based on gas consumption.
The Wikipedia summary is very good, but I have supplemented it with a couple of links, relating nitrogen oxide in the atmosphere with health problems and agricultural crises. I would have a requirement that all automotive engineers take at least one course in environmental science.
Things go wrong in companies all the time. I worked for an oil company (Texaco) and fortunately, never was directly involved in engineering decisions involving deceit or fraud. But, I knew of a number of cases, where if an engineer did go public with certain information, it would likely result in the engineer getting fired, and the whole matter covered up. It is a real tough situation. This is exactly the situation VW engineers faced.
The real documentation of the fraud in VW case, is the computer program itself, which is stored in a non-readable binary machine code in every car that is sold. It isn’t a problem of the code being locked or encrypted, but the form of the code. There is a solution to this, but let’s wait to the end of the story.
Eleven million cars produced by VW, from 2009 to 2014, had the rigged software. Of the 11 million, 500,000 cars were sold in the US. These were diesel cars, which are not very popular in the US. My guess is engineers were told a lie. If caught, we’ll do a recall and fix the error. This has become standard operating procedure. Of course, it wasn’t fixable. Perhaps, a second lie was also told, “we can’t get caught, because it’s all buried in the unreadable machine code.”
Per Wikipedia, “Engineers had recognized inadequacies in emissions tests, dating back to 1989. The Washington Post also reported that in the late 1990s, EPA engineers at Virginia Testing Laboratory had built a system called ROVER, designed to test a car’s emissions on the road. The project was shut down in 2001, despite preliminary tests indicating gaps between emissions from lab tests and real world tests of about 10 to 20 percent.” They didn’t contemplate how “on the road testing could catch cheaters.”
It was completely by chance that VW got caught. Under a $50,000 grant, in early 2014, two professors and two students began testing emission under road conditions, using a portable emissions measurement system. Under real-world driving conditions the Jetta exceeded US emissions limits “by a factor of 15 to 35” while the Passat exceeded the limit “by a factor of 5 to 20, according to Wikipedia.
Now, what Michael Winterkorn is charged with, is not the initial crime of cheating the testing, but the later concealment from the consumer, after he learned the VW cars had the defeat device.
Cars have computers to fine tune the performance. It was pretty inconceivable that the engineers would create the defeat device, but they are encouraged to be “problem solvers” and to innovative to gain a competitive advantage over the other car makers. It seems a simple solution has been suggested, to require only readable and public code to be used in cars. Unfortunately, EPA is pretty dysfunctional with Scott Pruitt at the helm.
I’ve commented on this before. Readers can click on “EPA” to read prior blogs.
Republicans and Democrats drink the same water and breath the same air. Contaminants in air come from many sources, including car emissions and chemical plants. Pollutants discharged into water bodies or the air can travel long distances and do not know geographic boundaries. This is the physical reality, requiring the federal environmentalists to be involved in preserving the environment beyond our borders. We are one planet, and environmentalists in Kansas recognize they are affected by decisions in Beijing. The rising water temperature, aided by increased Chinese carbon emissions and deforestation in Brazil, is a factor in the extreme weather variations as occurring in the northeast of the US now, and the hurricanes in Puerto Rico, Florida and Texas last year.
I read a recent letter from a former EPA scientist, who made me so sad. He had lung disease, and needed to live where the air quality was excellent. Yet, the high standards which he was involved in, were likely not being enforced by the EPA.
I’ve commented on Scott Pruitt before as the worst EPA Administrator it was created in 1970. Both Republicans and Democrats have contributed to building the EPA before Pruitt began to destroy it. One of the best Administrators, was William Rucklehaus, the first and fifth administrators of the EPA. He was a Republican, and first nominated to the post by Richard Nixon, and later became the Deputy Attorney General. He was fired by Nixon, for refusing to firing the Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox, but rehired by Reagan to head the EPA again. Rucklehaus was able to transfer the approval of all regulations of pesticides to the EPA. Doug Costle ran the EPA under President Carter, and followed a similar path as Rucklehaus. President Reagan campaigned against the EPA as an unnecessary government. He brought in Anne Gorsuch Buford to downsize the EPA. Buford was held in contempt of Congress when she refused to turn over documents on Superfund expenditures.
Environmental problems are big in the US because every industry has waste that they want to dispose of, at the lowest cost, and still be within the law. Only regulatory groups can evaluate the risk potential, using worse case scenarios. Love Canal disaster should be taught in schools, as a modern lesson of how dumping of chemicals in the 1950’s underground, can resurface decades later, and be contributing factors to leukemia. The chemicals were dump in 1953, and Hooker Chemical thought by donating the land to a school, they could get rid of the mess. Homes were built close to the school. Parents noticed their children were betting burns on their feet when playing barefoot. The impenetrable clay layer seal was likely fractured by the filtration of water, which expanded as it froze in the winter. Making American great again, is a fantasy, because when it comes to environmental action, we are not great. Not in the 1950’s, not 1970’s and not today.
I’ll leave out most of this history, but you can check the links below, on Love Canal, and Superfund sites.
The number one threat to our environment is at present is climate change. The US should be the leader in curbing carbon emissions, but this was before Trump and Pruitt. Pulling out of the Paris Accords on Climate Change Mitigation was a giant step backwards. Transportation accounts for 27% of the greenhouse gases emitted (EPA estimate, 2015) of which 90% are petroleum based. We emit around 6,800 million metric tons (mtn) of CO2 equivalent of greenhouse gases, down from a peak of 7,300 mtn in 2007. According to the EPA (current website, not the Obama archived one)
This decrease was largely driven by a decrease in emissions from fossil fuel combustion, which was a result of multiple factors including substitution from coal to natural gas consumption in the electric power sector; warmer winter conditions that reduced demand for heating fuel in the residential and commercial sectors; and a slight decrease in electricity demand.
The progress, however slight, is an unmistakable downward trend in greenhouse gases, which perhaps will not last much longer. The lead story in the New York Times on March 30, 2018, reads:
The Trump administration is expected to kick off an effort in coming days to weaken greenhouse gases and fuel economy standards for automobiles, handing a victory to car manufacturers and giving them ammunition potentially to rollback industry standards worldwide.
Car manufacturers and oil companies will be pleased. It is putting American first only in terms of corporate profits, not its citizens. California is likely to fight these changes, with 12 other states expected to follow. It might end up with 2 sets of standards, one for most of the country, and the second for the California and the allied states.
Regulatory freedom, the right of Americans to choose the gas-guzzlers of their choice, unimpeded by big government will be EPA’s selling points. Pruitt is expected to make the announcement at a Virginia dealership on Tuesday. Obama had made auto emissions as strict as California, so auto manufacturers did not have to have two sets of standards for car emissions.
The states allied with California include New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, and together account for a third of all car sales, according to the New York Times. California can legally require high fuel efficiency and lower emission standards based on a waiver granted by the federal government. Trump can take California to court, to attempt to void the waiver. He will likely let the car industry know there will be no renewal for the waivers in 2015.
To some extent, fuel efficiency is likely to improve as gas prices go up because of consumer demand. Despite all the talk from Washington, finding new oil is still increasingly more expensive and the rig count has been increasing. However, the consumer is not likely to care about tailpipe emissions, well until they have respiratory problems. Then they are very interested in everyone’s emission. So, a newly converted Democrat, is one with breathing problems.
Thus, a very chaotic situation is about to unfold. California may win, at least in the short term, as auto manufacturers are not about to produce two sets of cars. A court battle is inevitable.
It is all about the Trump administration being weak, and caving in to the big auto manufacturers.
“Environmental preservation is our test. If we pass it, we get to save the planet.” (ok, I’ve taken a line from Marjory Stoneman Douglas on preserving the Everglades) We can’t expect China, India and the EU to regulate their emissions when we can’t. It will take a long time to repair Trump’s damage to our standing in the world.
I wanted write more on Pruitt’s new rules on scientific evidence, which rely solely on public information as a way of further weakening the agency. I’ll leave this for a separate blog.
Scott Pruitt, administrator of the EPA, is systematically weakening the EPA. We have pulled out of the Paris Climate Change Accords, the Clean Water Rule has been suspended, and the Clean Power Act is being repealed. Large areas are being opened to mining and oil exploration with minimal review of potential environmental damage. The EPA budget will be reduced by 31% and 25% of the staff will be fired.
It is a tactic to please the right wing, conservative base of Trump’s administration. The harm is increased global warming with more extreme weather conditions, causing loss of lives and destruction of homes. Global warming does not cause hurricanes, but it can make them more frequent and more intense as a result of warming seas. Long term effects will be decline in the more fragile ecosystems, in Florida and the Chesapeake Bay, with profound effects.
While Scott Pruitt is doing everything he can to make the EPA less effective, Mike Mulvaney is going to extreme measures at the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, to make the agency ineffective in defending the consumer – just the opposite of what it was set up to do. I reported that after Equifax security was breached and information on 146 million Americans was stolen, Mulvaney is not issuing subpoenas for information. I’ve reported on the atrocious action in allowing Insurance Bi-Weekly to get back in business (not requesting bond equal to their judgement while it was being appealed).
There is a long list of what Trump is doing wrong. I happen to like Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, but Trump is always undercutting him, and cutting back on the “soft power” of the US, by diminishing our role in the UN and not filling diplomatic posts. I think Jeff Sessions is honest and forthright, not allowing the Mueller investigation to become political. Trump has criticized Sessions for recusing himself from the Mueller investigation, calling him weak.
At this point, the antidote to this, is to elect Democrats to the Senate and House of Representatives in the Fall to help repair the damage. There are very few Republicans with a strong environmental record. We need responsible government and a president that truly believes in a progressive agenda. I don’t know who I’ll vote for in the next presidential election, but it won’t be for Trump. The BS coming from Fox News and other conservative outlets is strong, but people can see their way past this stuff.
The best antidote for what is going on in Washington, is an active and informed electorate. It’s called critical thinking and taking action primarily at the ballot box.
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