republicans

Clean Power Plan

by Dave

I’m afraid under Gov Rick Perry as head of Department of Energy and Scott Pruitt as head of EPA, the Clean Power Plan will soon to become history.    It is a real shame.  The Clean water and Air Acts were signed into law by Richard Nixon, and stood strong through Reagan, Bush (H.W.),  Bush (W), and 16 years of democratic party  presidents.

Scott Pruitt is a horrible choice.   The mantra of Republicans is regulation is bad for business and business will make America great again.  However, it is  a giant step backwards for international cooperation for environmental needs.

We can not expect other countries around the world to work with us in curbing carbon emissions, if we are not doing our part.

China and the US produce the most CO2, accounting for 45% of emissions:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

The top ten producers, include India and the EU, and account for 68% of carbon emissions.

Carbon emissions cause global warming, and serious breathing problems, particularly with those suffering from asthma.

The Republicans don’t have a plan- except if you consider downplaying the problem and delaying any real solutions as a plan.  Energy generated by coal typically generates twice the carbon emissions than natural gas.  Cleaning  up of CO2 emissions from coal fired plants increases costs.  The decline in coal usage has occurred as more operators prefer natural gas (also a polluter).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Power_Plan

The Clean Power Plan isn’t perfect.  Critics abound who can tell you the flaws in the program in an instant.  However,  the alternative (see Republican Plan) is horrible, so going from a horrible situation to a flawed one, is a step in the right direction.

Without a real US plan,  we likely lose support from China, India, EU countries, Japan and Russia.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

Hillary Clinton- Best Choice for President

by Dave

As President, she will have a lot to deal with.  The most critical will be international policy, with the crises in Syria, being number 1.   Syria is a complex mess, and can only be put back together by cooperation from many countries, including Turkey, Iran and Russia.  Her slogan,  “Stronger Together”,  is the right path forward.

Obama and Bush have never found a way to persuade North Korea’s leader Kim Jung-un to halt his quest for nuclear weapons.   He is truly a scary leader.  Libya is battling ISIS, yet the country still in broken into various factions.

Donald Trump has demonstrated his ineptness with his insulting comments to Mexico.  It doesn’t take much to be friends with Mexico- but he blew it big time.  He seems to start little wars at the drop of a hat.  Even insulting Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz’s father  and many other Republicans.

It is not the time to elect a president who has zero knowledge of diplomacy.  This is not the job who calls our elections rigged when he’s behind in the polls. There is no on-the-job training program.

Vote for Hillary to keep our nation great by working with others to find solutions.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Losing the right way

by Dave

Obama Tells Trump: Stop ‘Whining’ and Trying to Discredit the Election

New York Times Article

Trump’s comments were over the top for Marco Rubio,  Senator from Florida, seeking re-election, who has been trying to put some distance between himself and Trump:

This election is not being rigged,” Mr. Rubio said, adding that Mr. Trump “should stop saying that.” “We have 67 counties in this state, each of which conduct their own elections,” Mr. Rubio said. “I promise you there is not a 67-county conspiracy to rig this election.”

There was no backing down from Trump, which is scary.   He is laying the foundation for a speech when he loses the election.  He might not give a nasty “concession” speech- but leave enough bits of accusations of a rig system- media bias,  election fraud and big money influences,  so others can accuse the government of “ripping off the election.”

Trump’s campaign manager claims this is exactly what Al Gore did in year 2000.  It’s not true- not by a long shot.  In year 2000,  Florida vote count was extremely close and a re-counting began in certain counties where a few ballots could make a difference.  But, there are laws governing the timing of announcing election results, and the Supreme Court decided to limit the recounting.   Al Gore conceded to George Bush and never discredited the election system.

Trump doesn’t retract statements, he doesn’t apologize,  but he threatens his accusers with lawsuits.   He said he’ll  sue Jessica Drake, a pornstar, who said Trump was offering her $10,000 for sex.   No- this isn’t going to happen. Not to a single accuser.  He is suing the New York Times, and his wife is suing People magazine.

One last thing. Ultimately, the Secretary of State from each state declares the winner in the election.  If you take a look at all the toss up states, their governors are Republican.   Look at OH, FL, NC, IA, AZ, NV and even GA- all Republican!

This stuff gets Trump headlines, but nothing else.  Poor Marco Rubio- trying to distance himself from Trump, yet telling people to vote for Trump anyway because he can’t be as bad as Hillary.   It’s a tough act.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

So, who is going to win?

by Dave

Right now, Hillary is in front. But,  everything depends on FIONNA   – Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.  Trump has to win Florida.  Hillary doesn’t.  Not all forecasters have the same list of toss up states.  Some consider Arizona goes to Trump, and Nevada to Clinton, so  this leaves just FION.  Or we can call it NIFO, which sounds dirty.   Florida is still the biggy in all of this.

The New York Times, upshot webpage is still the best, as it provides other forecasts;

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Third Party Candidates

by Dave

A number of polls show third party candidates may pull as much as  12% of the vote in some states.    I believe this is a result of the constant mudslinging between Trump and Clinton.  If someone truly believes in what Clinton and Trump are saying about each other, then we have two of the worst human beings for the presidency.  Hillary belongs in jail for dishonesty, and Trump also, for sex offenses.

The third party candidates get off  scot- free, because we all know they can’t win.   Interviews are much easier, because there’s no checks of prior statements.

But between Trump and Clinton,  a lot of the mudslinging is just not true:

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trump-twists-facts-on-wikileaks/

Nice video on last debate:

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/video-town-hall-debate-fact-checks/

I did catch about 5 of the lies in the debate.  At least, I knew we were not energy independent, and never have been:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/09/investing/us-energy-independence-oil-opec/

By the way, if oil prices go down,  our dependence will go up.  I hope to post more on the US energy future.

Of course,  I knew there were NOT  bombs all over the apartment where the San Bernadino couple lived.  I just thought Trump had some source of someone seeing something suspicious in the apartment.  Nope!

Next debate, I will have my list of 10 top lies, before Jake Tapper or anyone else can post theirs.

Finally,  I think third party candidates are appearing move frequently in the media just to break up the monotony of the continual accusations between Trump and Clinton.  You can blame this on CNN and others, all day all news format.

Stay tuned

Dave

Don’t Vote Libertarian

by Dave

Gary Johnson is a nice enough guy, but please do not vote for him.   The Libertarian party operates on a central theme that the government has gotten too big,  but their solutions in most cases, are completely unrealistic.   We all would like to cut the expense of government, but not the services.   A lot of their work is not seen by Americans.

A very telling moment came when Gary was asked a question about the fighting going on in Aleppo, Syria.   He was blissfully unaware of Aleppo.   We can not disengage ourselves from the rest of the world.    Johnson was stumped again when asked to name a world leader whom he admires.   Trump favors “Americanism” as he defines it, doing what’s best for the country.   Clinton’s message, “Stronger together”  generally favors international cooperation.   Johnson seems to favor putting on blinders on, and hope problems (both in the US and abroad) will just go away.

Under Libertarian rule, next time a hurricane hits NJ, Florida or Texas,  you can expect no help from the US Government.   Similarly, if there’s an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, or an earthquake in California, forget it.  But, as people struggle with putting their lives back in order, they will be free to smoke pot.   And prostitution will be legal.   Emergency help is all a part of the “welfare state.”     Educational assistance- gone.  Cooperative security through NATO and other agreements- gone.

The policies of the Libertarian Party  represent a giant step back in time.   And it won’t be pretty.   The only good thing about the Libertarian Party is they have no chance of winning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(United_States)

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Who’s ahead in the election?

by Dave

Hillary Clinton, as of Aug 5, has about an 80% change of winning this election.   This is strictly based state polls, and who will win the most electoral votes.   To figure out who will win, you have to follow the toss up states.   In fact, there are just 3 solid ones left- Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

So what is toss up status?    It is generally when either Clinton or Trump have less than 65% and more than 35% chance of winning.  It is generally when the outcome of statewide polls show the difference in the candidates is less than the margin of error.  If several statewide polls show conflicting results,  it is a toss up.

Florida, Ohio and North Carolina have shown slim differences in polls, and conflicting results- so they are solid toss ups.   Some like the New York Times, believe Georgia is in the toss up camp.   Others think Georgia could lean Republican.  Arizona is considered toss up by some, or lean Republican.   Right now,  Nevada,  New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin and Iowa are generally considered to lean Democratic.  Clinton could win the presidency without winning either the popular vote or the most states.

My guess is Hillary Clinton will surpass the 270 electoral votes needed by 50 to 70 electoral votes.  I’m going to run a few simulations on this, and I’ll come up with the most accurate (or at least the most precise) number possible.

Frequently wrong but never in doubt.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Election Predictions

by Dave

The best way to figure who will win, is to keep a close eye on state-wide polls of the swing states.  Since the beginning of this current madness,  there have been hundreds of polls, most of which at this point,  only confirm what we already know.    New York votes Democrat. Similarly,  Texas votes Republican.   These are the solid blue and red states.

National polls show the candidates to be close.  Trump is likely to win more states than Hillary.  But,  winning the most states doesn’t win the election.

The only way any candidate can win an election, is to win some of the swing states.  Hillary Clinton is in Florida right now.   Donald Trump, of course, is getting ready to make a grand entrance in Cleveland, OH.   These are the two really key swing states.   The other really big one is North Carolina.

So,  while a ton of predictions are being churned out,   few understand the prediction process.  Each state is assigned a probability that the Republican or Democrat will win in November.  Texas, for example has a 99% chance of going to Trump.   The reason for this is simple.  All the polls show Trump beating either Sanders or Clinton.  Similarly, Trump has nearly no chance to win New York. This leaves about 10 to 13 swing states, with probabilities much closer to toss up status (50%).   North Carolina is closer to a solid “anyone’s guess” or 50% than any other state.

Overall, using  probabilities by state, Clinton has a 70-75% chance of winning.  It is noted that the effect of third party candidates has not been taken into account in most polls.

These predictions are remarkably close to the odds given by the bookies from across the pond.

New York Times – Who will be the next president?

The predictions change as poll numbers change.    Each candidate will focus on states where they are lagging.  If more states move closer to the 50% probability value, the net result may be a decrease in election predictability.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Ted Cruz – the ultimate recycler

by Dave

Ted had his acceptance speech written for sometime, I guess.  Not wanting it to go to waste,  he could have kept it handy until he was re-elected to the Senate in 2018.  But, it was such a good speech, about his conservative values,  he just could let it go to wait until then.  A lot of the speech was about recent events, and by 2018, it would look really stale.  O what to do!  Folks from the NY delegation realized this speech was all about Ted and not a mention about the Donald.

Many thought he would just take the lead from Chris Christie,  comparing Hillary to some demonic spirit, for putting the nation at peril with her lie about “more than one device.”

It will be the most talked about speech because what he did not say, which was “Vote for Trump.”

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

One American News- Biased Reporting

by Dave

Florida is the largest of the battleground states, in the 2016 election.  One American News reported  Florida’s voters  now  lean more toward Trump following the release of Benghazi reports.   Gravis Marketing did the polling.  I have no reason to believe their  polling was biased.   Their sample size of 1619 registered voters is above average.  The bias is the way the results were reported.

The polls showed in a race between Clinton and Trump,  52% of the respondents favored Clinton verses Trump with 48%.  However, in a three way race,  Trump led with 49% verses  Clinton with 45% and “Other”  with 6%.   So, it really looks like Florida is too close to call or still a toss up state.

There are two Benghazi reports.  The  Democrat’s version, approximately 300 pages,  was released on Monday, July 27 and the official version, backed only by Republican members with 800 pages was  released mid-day on Tuesday, July 28.  The poll took place from July 27 to 28, 2016.   So, how many of the respondents might have  reacted to each report is unknown, but it is likely a wash in the end.

It is unfortunate the biased reporting from OAN.  They said they don’t mix news with commentary like Fox News .  They just did exactly that.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

http://www.oann.com/pollflorida/

Veepstakes

by Dave

Trump will pick Jeff Sessions.  It’s a close call.   The bookies are divided between Sessions and Gingrich with lower odds on Christie and Kasich.   Bob Corker  has recently been added to the short list by CNN,  although the bookies have him ranked lower than the rest.

You can argue until the cows come home who Trump should nominate.  I originally said he would pick Joni Ernst,  but she’s out based on her recent comments.   Trump will win most southern states, so Corker and Sessions don’t bring much to the ticket.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Stage III finally

by Dave

We are finally here.  Thank God.  It’s Hillary v. Donald, with a few loose ends, like Bernie’s final capitulation.   It’s off to the pageants- oh I mean conventions,  then each candidate  vying for the seven toss up states.

It is  nasty- with hot headed Donald, and the corrupt Hillary, exchanging barbs every day.

Florida will decide the election.   South Florida are solid Democrat, and more rural areas are Republicans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Phase III on Elections

by Dave

We are almost into Phase III of the election.   All primary candidates gone, and just two candidates slugging it out until November.  We know Trump is it.  On the Democrat side, it sure looks like Hillary will be the one.  (Phase I- candidates announcing themselves,  Phase II – candidates withdrawing, Phase III – only 2 left standing, one Democrat and one Republican).

Now, the symmetry.  What Republicans are doing now, Democrats will do very soon.  Talk of party unity.  Tone down the rhetoric.  Seek forgiveness for all those people who you called stupid (is Trump paying attention).  It was all in the heat of the moment.  Plan for the pageant (sorry I meant convention).   It will go on for 3 days, but be boiled down to 3 minute spots on national “news” stations.

The stuff about who will be the VP nomination, is part of Phase III.   A whole slew of potential running mates will be suggested,  including Dave Barry, Christine Lagarde, and Harriet Tubman (I have this from a highly reliable unnamed source, although he didn’t tell me if it’s Trump, Hillary or Bernie’s short list). Can’t wait for this silliness to end.

As quietly as possible,  the two candidates will  focus in on the 7- 10 states that will be key to winning the election.   Florida is probably the biggest prize, as it has the most electoral votes.   So, it will be major sucking up times for both the Republican and Democrat candidate to get endorsements.  Plus anything that gets them  free air time (aka media coverage).  And,  you can expect a  few choice zingers from each candidate on a daily basis.

If you believe both candidates, you have to conclude that we have the two most inept people on the planet to run our government.  So by the end of the day,  many voters  might be wondering, “Why should I vote for either of these two losers?” which of course will be the topic of my upcoming blog.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

US Unemployment

by Dave

Donald Trump says we shouldn’t believe US unemployment rates  is 5%.  He says the unemployment rate is really  around 20%.  The average investor knows 20%  is very evident with massive foreclosures and businesses closing up. The stock market is destroyed by even 10% unemployment.

The highest level of unemployment in the last 67 years has been 10.8% during Reagan’s administration. Many economic events occurring during Nixon and Carter’s administrations, likely contributed to this high rate.  Oil prices tend to go down with unemployment.  In the last 4 months, oil prices have been slowly moving up even with an oversupply situation.

Trump is quoted as saying:

The official jobless figure is “statistically devised to make politicians — and in particular presidents — look good.”

Unemployment rates are determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They have been estimating unemployment on a monthly basis since 1948.  Now, with the internet, you can get all the BLS   monthly estimates from 1948:

Unemployment Rates

The unemployment estimates are done by career government employees with the objective of obtaining the best estimate of unemployment in the country.  A 5% unemployment rate sounds good, unless you live in a neighborhood where most of your neighbors are unemployed.  The 5% unemployment is a nationwide value,  and there are large variations depending on age and trade or educational skills.

There are other measures of  unemployment statistics calculated by the BLS.  The BLS has a budget of 618 million dollars and has 2,500 employees.

The BLS data are used by economists and financial analysts around the world. In  addition to the unemployment rate, they provide estimates of the Payroll Employment,  Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI),   Productivity,  US Import Index  and US Export Index.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Obama’s Supreme Court Nominee

by Dave

Suppose they held a Miss America contest, and the plan was, just after crowning the winner, they were either going to push her off the stage or mug her as she was leaving the pageant.   That’s exactly what’s going to happen to Obama’s nomination.

Well,  I stated on Feb 18  that I thought Judge Jacqueline Nguyen was likely going to be Obama’s choice, but I thought it could go to Sri Srinivasan.  Based on recent leaks,   I now think Obama will nominate  Sri  Srinivasan.   I rule out Merrick Garland because he is 63 years old, and Paul Watford, because of prior Republican opposition in the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.  He was confirmed 61 to 34.

I also believe no hearing will take place.  If a hearing does take place, Republicans  will attempt to show the nominee is unqualified.  Ted Cruz would like the chance to tell the country that Obama has nominated the worst possible Supreme Court candidate ever.

The Republicans  will  not allow the nomination to go forward.   So, pushed off the stage, or mugged on the way out-  the Supreme Court will have 8 justices for at least a year, maybe longer.

It’s a terrible precedent.  It is not politics as usual- as it has never been done before.

Stay tuned,

Dave